Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “thresholds”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 1,009 records · Page 56
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

Summertime Continental Shallow Cumulus Cloud Detection Using GOES-16 Satellite and Ground-Based Stereo Cameras at the DOE ARM Southern Great Plains Site

Summertime continental shallow cumulus clouds (ShCu) are detected using Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES)-16 reflectance data, with cross-validation by observations from ground-based stereo cameras at the Department of Energy Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Southern Great Plains site. A ShCu cloudy pixel is identified when the GOES reflectance exceeds the clear-sky surface reflectance by a reflectance detection threshold of ShCu, ΔR. We firstly construct diurnally varying clear-sky surface reflectance maps and then estimate the ΔR. A GOES simulator is designed, projecting the clouds reconstructed by stereo cameras towards the surface along the satellite’s slanted viewing direction. The dynamic ShCu detection threshold ΔR is determined by making the GOES cloud fraction (CF) equal to the CF from the GOES simulator. Although there are temporal variabilities in ΔR, cloud fractions and cloud size distributions can be well reproduced using a constant ΔR value of 0.045. The method presented in this study enables daytime ShCu detection, which is usually falsely reported as clear sky in the GOES-16 cloud mask data product. Using this method, a new ShCu dataset can be generated to bridge the observational gap in detecting ShCu, which may transition into deep precipitating clouds, and to facilitate further studies on ShCu development over heterogenous land surface.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Comparison of Sub-Ppm Instrument Response Suggests Higher Detection Limits Could Be Used to Quantify Methane Emissions from Oil and Gas Infrastructure

Quantifying and controlling fugitive methane emissions from oil and gas facilities remains essential for addressing climate goals, but the costs associated with monitoring millions of production sites remain prohibitively expensive. Current thinking, supported by measurement and simple dispersion modelling, assumes single-digit parts-per-million instrumentation is required. To investigate instrument response, the inlets of three trace-methane (sub-ppm) analyzers were collocated on a facility designed to release gas of known composition at known flow rates between 0.4 and 5.2 kg CH 4 h –1 from simulated oil and gas infrastructure. Methane mixing ratios were measured by each instrument at 1 Hertz resolution over nine hours. While mixing ratios reported by a cavity ring-down spectrometer (CRDS)-based instrument were on average 10.0 ppm (range 1.8 to 83 ppm), a mid-infrared laser absorption spectroscopy (MIRA)-based instrument reported short-lived mixing ratios far larger than expected (range 1.8 to 779 ppm) with a similar nine-hour average to the CRDS (10.1 ppm). We suggest the peaks detected by the MIRA are likely caused by a micrometeorological phenomenon, where vortex shedding has resulted in heterogeneous methane plumes which only the MIRA can observe. Further analysis suggests an instrument like the MIRA (an optical-cavity-based instrument with cavity size ≤10 cm3 measuring at ≥2 Hz with air flow rates in the order of ≤0.3 slpm at distances of ≤20 m from the source) but with a higher detection limit (25 ppm) could detect enough of the high-concentration events to generate representative 20 min-average methane mixing ratios. Even though development of a lower-cost, high-precision, high-accuracy instrument with a 25 ppm detection threshold remains a significant problem, this has implications for the use of instrumentation with higher detection thresholds, resulting in the reduction in cost to measure methane emissions and providing a mechanism for the widespread deployment of effective leak detection and repair programs for all oil and gas infrastructure.

03 NATURAL GAS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Bayesian Inference of State-Level COVID-19 Basic Reproduction Numbers across the United States

Although many persons in the United States have acquired immunity to COVID-19, either through vaccination or infection with SARS-CoV-2, COVID-19 will pose an ongoing threat to non-immune persons so long as disease transmission continues. We can estimate when sustained disease transmission will end in a population by calculating the population-specific basic reproduction number ℛ0, the expected number of secondary cases generated by an infected person in the absence of any interventions. The value of ℛ0 relates to a herd immunity threshold (HIT), which is given by 1−1/ℛ0. When the immune fraction of a population exceeds this threshold, sustained disease transmission becomes exponentially unlikely (barring mutations allowing SARS-CoV-2 to escape immunity). Here, we report state-level ℛ0 estimates obtained using Bayesian inference. Maximum a posteriori estimates range from 7.1 for New Jersey to 2.3 for Wyoming, indicating that disease transmission varies considerably across states and that reaching herd immunity will be more difficult in some states than others. ℛ0 estimates were obtained from compartmental models via the next-generation matrix approach after each model was parameterized using regional daily confirmed case reports of COVID-19 from 21 January 2020 to 21 June 2020. Our ℛ0 estimates characterize the infectiousness of ancestral strains, but they can be used to determine HITs for a distinct, currently dominant circulating strain, such as SARS-CoV-2 variant Delta (lineage B.1.617.2), if the relative infectiousness of the strain can be ascertained. On the basis of Delta-adjusted HITs, vaccination data, and seroprevalence survey data, we found that no state had achieved herd immunity as of 20 September 2021.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Wave resource spatial and temporal variability dependence on WEC size

As the wave energy sector grows and looks to the Blue Economy for commercialization opportunities, there is a distinct and pressing need to clearly understand and quantify the coupled impacts of wave energy converter (WEC) size and wave resource characteristics on the annual energy production, spatial variability and temporal variability. Utilizing generic frequency domain representations of the Oscilla Power Triton WEC and spectral wave conditions at PacWave (Oregon), Los Angeles (California) and WETS (Hawaii), a series of interesting results emerge. Firstly, the ‘optimal’ WEC size, from an energy standpoint, is fundamentally dependent on the frequency distribution of the incoming wave variance density spectrum. Secondly, and from a seasonality perspective, the seasonal WEC energy generation doesn’t necessarily follow the seasonal distribution of gross wave power. Finally, from an hourly power variability perspective, a reduction in WEC size generally decreases variability. However, for each of the locations investigated, there appears to be a WEC size threshold; a threshold where further reducing WEC size results in increased power variability.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗
DOE OSTI2020

TOI 694b and TIC 220568520b: Two Low-mass Companions near the Hydrogen-burning Mass Limit Orbiting Sun-like Stars

We report the discovery of TOI 694 b and TIC 220568520 b, two low-mass stellar companions in eccentric orbits around metal-rich Sun-like stars, first detected by the Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite (TESS). TOI 694 b has an orbital period of 48.05131 ± 0.00019 days and eccentricity of 0.51946 ± 0.00081, and we derive a mass of 89.0 ± 5.3 M{sub Jup} (0.0849 ± 0.0051 M{sub ⊙}) and radius of 1.111 ± 0.017 R{sub Jup} (0.1142 ± 0.0017 R{sub ⊙}). TIC 220568520 b has an orbital period of 18.55769 ± 0.00039 days and eccentricity of 0.0964 ± 0.0032, and we derive a mass of 107.2 ± 5.2 M{sub Jup} (0.1023 ± 0.0050 M{sub ⊙}) and radius of 1.248 ± 0.018 R{sub Jup} (0.1282 ± 0.0019 R{sub ⊙}). Both binary companions lie close to and above the hydrogen-burning mass threshold that separates brown dwarfs and the lowest-mass stars, with TOI 694 b being 2σ above the canonical mass threshold of 0.075 M{sub ⊙}. The relatively long periods of the systems mean that the magnetic fields of the low-mass companions are not expected to inhibit convection and inflate the radius, which according to one leading theory is common in similar objects residing in short-period tidally synchronized binary systems. Indeed we do not find radius inflation for these two objects when compared to theoretical isochrones. These two new objects add to the short but growing list of low-mass stars with well-measured masses and radii, and highlight the potential of the TESS mission for detecting such rare objects orbiting bright stars.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

The Breakthrough Listen Search for Intelligent Life: Searching for Technosignatures in Observations of TESS Targets of Interest

Exoplanetary systems are prime targets for the Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence (SETI). With the recent uptick in the identification of candidate and confirmed exoplanets through the work of missions like the Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite (TESS), we are beginning to understand that Earth-like planets are common. In this work, we extend the Breakthrough Listen (BL) search for extraterrestrial intelligence to include targeted searches of stars identified by TESS as potential exoplanet hosts. We report on 113 30 minute cadence observations collected for 28 targets selected from the TESS Input Catalog from among those identified as containing signatures of transiting planets. The targets were searched for narrowband signals from 1 to 11 GHz using the turboSETI pipeline architecture modified for compatibility with the Google Cloud environment. Data were searched for drift rates of ±4 Hz s{sup −1} above a minimum signal-to-noise threshold of 10, following the parameters of previous searches conducted by Price et al. and Enriquez et al. The observations presented in this work establish some of the deepest limits to date over such a wide band (1–11 GHz) for life beyond Earth. We determine that fewer than 12.72% of the observed targets possess transmitters operating at these frequencies with an equivalent isotropic radiated power greater than our derived threshold of 4.9×10{sup 14} W.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2020

Clustering of LRGs in the DECaLS DR8 Footprint: Distance Constraints from Baryon Acoustic Oscillations Using Photometric Redshifts

A photometric redshift sample of luminous red galaxies (LRGs) obtained from the DECam Legacy Survey (DECaLS) is analyzed to probe cosmic distances by exploiting the wedge approach of the two-point correlation function. Although the cosmological information is highly contaminated by the uncertainties existing in the photometric redshifts from the galaxy map, an angular diameter distance can be probed at the perpendicular configuration in which the measured correlation function is minimally contaminated. An ensemble of wedged correlation functions selected up to a given threshold based on having the least contamination was studied in previous work (Sridhar & Song 2019) using simulations, and the extracted cosmological information was unbiased within this threshold. Furthermore, we apply the same methodology for analyzing the LRG sample from DECaLS, which will provide the optical imaging for targeting two-thirds of the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument footprint and measure the angular diameter distances at z = 0.69 and z = 0.87 to be D A (0.697) = (1529 ± 73 Mpe)(r d /r d.fid ) and D A (0.874) = (1674 ± 102 Mpe)(r d /r d.fid ) with a fractional error of 4.77% and 6.09%, respectively. We obtain a value of H 0 = 66.58 ± 5.31 km s -1 Mpc -1 , which supports the H 0 measured by all other baryon acoustic oscillation results and is consistent with the ΛCDM model.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

What Sets the Star Formation Rate of Molecular Clouds? The Density Distribution as a Fingerprint of Compression and Expansion Rates

We use a suite of 3D simulations of star-forming molecular clouds, with and without stellar feedback, magnetic fields, and driven turbulence, to study the compression and expansion rates of the gas as functions of density. We show that, around the mean density, supersonic turbulence promotes rough equilibrium between the amounts of compressing and expanding gas, consistent with continuous gas cycling between high- and low-density states. We find that the inclusion of protostellar jets produces rapidly expanding and compressing low-density gas. We find that the gas mass flux peaks at the transition between the lognormal and power-law forms of the density probability distribution function (PDF). This is consistent with the transition density tracking the post-shock density, which promotes an enhancement of mass at this density (i.e., shock compression and filament formation). At high densities, the gas dynamics are dominated by self-gravity: the compression rate in all of our runs matches the rate of the run with only gravity, suggesting that processes other than self-gravity have little effect at these densities. The net gas mass flux becomes constant at a density below the sink formation threshold, where it equals the star formation rate. The density at which the net gas mass flux equals the star formation rate is one order of magnitude lower than our sink threshold density, corresponds to the formation of the second power-law tail in the density PDF, and sets the overall star formation rates of these simulations.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Detection of Millimeter-wavelength Flares from Two Accreting White Dwarf Systems in the SPT-3G Galactic Plane Survey

Blind discoveries of millimeter-wave transient events in nontargeted surveys, as opposed to follow-up or pointed observations, have only become possible in the past decade using cosmic microwave background surveys. Here we present the first results from the SPT-3G Galactic Plane Survey—the first dedicated high-sensitivity, wide-field, time-domain, millimeter-wave survey of the Galactic Plane, conducted with the South Pole Telescope (SPT) using the SPT-3G camera. The survey field covers approximately 100 deg 2 near the Galactic center. In 2023 and 2024, this survey consisted of roughly 1500 individual 20 minute observations in three bands centered at 95, 150, and 220 GHz, with plans for more observations in the coming years. We report the detection of two transient events exceeding a 5σ threshold in both the 95 and 150 GHz bands in the first 2 yr of SPT-3G Galactic Plane Survey data. Both events are unpolarized and exhibit durations of approximately 1 day, with peak flux densities at 150 GHz of at least 50 mJy. The peak isotropic luminosities at 150 GHz are on the order of 10 31 erg s −1 . Both events are associated with previously identified accreting white dwarfs. Magnetic reconnection in the accretion disk is a likely explanation for the observed millimeter flares. In the future, we plan to expand the transient search in the Galactic Plane by lowering the detection threshold, enabling single-band detections, analyzing lightcurves on a range of timescales, and including additional data from future observations.

Wan, Y. [Univ. of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, IL↗
DOE OSTI2022

Incremental Fermi Large Area Telescope Fourth Source Catalog

We present an incremental version (4FGL-DR3, for Data Release 3) of the fourth Fermi Large Area Telescope (LAT) catalog of γ-ray sources. Based on the first 12 years of science data in the energy range from 50 MeV to 1 TeV, it contains 6658 sources. The analysis improves on that used for the 4FGL catalog over eight years of data: more sources are fit with curved spectra, we introduce a more robust spectral parameterization for pulsars, and we extend the spectral points to 1 TeV. The spectral parameters, spectral energy distributions, and associations are updated for all sources. Light curves are rebuilt for all sources with 1 yr intervals (not 2 month intervals). Among the 5064 original 4FGL sources, 16 were deleted, 112 are formally below the detection threshold over 12 yr (but are kept in the list), while 74 are newly associated, 10 have an improved association, and seven associations were withdrawn. Pulsars are split explicitly between young and millisecond pulsars. Pulsars and binaries newly detected in LAT sources, as well as more than 100 newly classified blazars, are reported. We add three extended sources and 1607 new point sources, mostly just above the detection threshold, among which eight are considered identified, and 699 have a plausible counterpart at other wavelengths. We discuss the degree-scale residuals to the global sky model and clusters of soft unassociated point sources close to the Galactic plane, which are possibly related to limitations of the interstellar emission model and missing extended sources.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Meta-Study of Particulate Detection Losses on Radioactive Air Sample Filters

Several mathematical relationships between air sample filter mass loading and the correlated analytical self-absorption factor were developed using data from other published research in this meta-study. Gross-alpha and -beta applications are addressed for this research. As filter media becomes loaded with particulate matter, there is potential for measurement losses due to self-absorption by mass loading. Components contributing to absorption include particulate dust, radioactive particulates, and filter material. Standards indicate a correction factor should be used when the penetration of radioactive material into the collection media or self-absorption of radiation by the material collected would reduce the detection rate by more than 5%. Previously, losses due to self-absorption have been reported up to 100% over a range up to ~10 mg∙cm -2 mass loading. These absorption losses then can be used to determine a correction factor for sample results. For low mass loadings (e.g., ≤0.1 mg∙cm -2 ) corrections factors in the 0.85 - 1 range have been recommended and used, while at higher mass loadings nearer to 10 mg∙cm -2 correction factors closer to 0 (representing near 100% losses) are used. Based on data from published studies, the different methods for relating percent loss due to self-absorption to mass loading include linear, exponential, quadratic, and trinomial derived functions. Where applicable, both forced zero and non-forced zero results were evaluated. From the derived functions evaluated, the trinomial function provided the best fit. Once the sample filter mass loading is known, the trinomial function can be applied to estimate losses and the corresponding self-absorption factor. When applied to routine operating conditions for radiological facility stacks monitored at the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory for an average sample filter mass loading of 0.09 ± 0.12 (2σ) mg∙cm -2 (excluding negative values and outliers) and a range from 0 - 0.24 mg∙cm -2 , the estimated trinomial function nominal self-absorption losses are less than 5% at 0.09 mg∙cm -2 and less than 10% at 0.24 mg∙cm -2 . The trinomial function is one method that may be used to adjust the activity results of an air sample when the sample-specific mass loading is determined. The application of no correction factor when the ANSI/HPS N13.1-2021 guidance of a 5% threshold for loss is not reached with typical stack sample mass loadings may be reasonable in high-efficiency particulate air filtered systems. For simplicity, it would be conservative in assigning the self-absorption correction factor at the 5% threshold (i.e., 0.95) for general uses but in cases of heavy mass loading to calculate the factor.

air sampling↗
DOE OSTI2022

Not all types of secondary organic aerosol mix: two phases observed when mixing different secondary organic aerosol types

Abstract. Secondary organic aerosol (SOA) constitutes a large fraction of atmospheric aerosol. To assess its impacts on climate and air pollution, knowledge of the number of phases in internal mixtures of different SOA types is required. Atmospheric models often assume that different SOA types form a single phase when mixed. Here, we present visual observations of the number of phases formed after mixing different anthropogenic and biogenic SOA types. Mixing SOA types generated in environmental chambers with oxygen-to-carbon (O/C) ratios between 0.34 and 1.05, we found 6 out of 15 mixtures of two SOA types to result in two phase particles. We demonstrate that the number of phases depends on the difference in the average O/C ratio between the two SOA types (Δ(O/C)). Using a threshold Δ(O/C) of 0.47, we can predict the phase behavior of over 90 % of our mixtures, with one- and two-phase particles predicted for Δ(O/C)<0.47 and Δ(O/C)≥0.47, respectively. This threshold ΔO/C value provides a simple parameter to predict whether mixtures of fresh and aged SOA form one- or two-phase particles in the atmosphere. In addition, we show that phase-separated SOA particles form when mixtures of volatile organic compounds emitted from real trees are oxidized.

Mahrt, Fabian (ORCID:0000000270596765)↗
DOE OSTI2022

Automated identification of local contamination in remote atmospheric composition time series

Abstract. Atmospheric observations in remote locations offer a possibility of exploring trace gas and particle concentrations in pristine environments. However, data from remote areas are often contaminated by pollution from local sources. Detecting this contamination is thus a central and frequently encountered issue. Consequently, many different methods exist today to identify local contamination in atmospheric composition measurement time series, but no single method has been widely accepted. In this study, we present a new method to identify primary pollution in remote atmospheric datasets, e.g., from ship campaigns or stations with a low background signal compared to the contaminated signal. The pollution detection algorithm (PDA) identifies and flags periods of polluted data in five steps. The first and most important step identifies polluted periods based on the derivative (time derivative) of a concentration over time. If this derivative exceeds a given threshold, data are flagged as polluted. Further pollution identification steps are a simple concentration threshold filter, a neighboring points filter (optional), a median, and a sparse data filter (optional). The PDA only relies on the target dataset itself and is independent of ancillary datasets such as meteorological variables. All parameters of each step are adjustable so that the PDA can be “tuned” to be more or less stringent (e.g., flag more or fewer data points as contaminated). The PDA was developed and tested with a particle number concentration dataset collected during the Multidisciplinary drifting Observatory for the Study of Arctic Climate (MOSAiC) expedition in the central Arctic. Using strict settings, we identified 62 % of the data as influenced by local contamination. Using a second independent particle number concentration dataset also collected during MOSAiC, we evaluated the performance of the PDA against the same dataset cleaned by visual inspection. The two methods agreed in 94 % of the cases. Additionally, the PDA was successfully applied to a trace gas dataset (CO2), also collected during MOSAiC, and to another particle number concentration dataset, collected at the high-altitude background station Jungfraujoch, Switzerland. Thus, the PDA proves to be a useful and flexible tool to identify periods affected by local contamination in atmospheric composition datasets without the need for ancillary measurements. It is best applied to data representing primary pollution. The user-friendly and open-access code enables reproducible application to a wide suite of different datasets. It is available at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.5761101 (Beck et al., 2021).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

High-fidelity retrieval from instantaneous line-of-sight returns of nacelle-mounted lidar including supervised machine learning

Abstract. Wind turbine applications that leverage nacelle-mounted Doppler lidar are hampered by several sources of uncertainty in the lidar measurement, affecting both bias and random errors. Two problems encountered especially for nacelle-mounted lidar are solid interference due to intersection of the line of sight with solid objects behind, within, or in front of the measurement volume and spectral noise due primarily to limited photon capture. These two uncertainties, especially that due to solid interference, can be reduced with high-fidelity retrieval techniques (i.e., including both quality assurance/quality control and subsequent parameter estimation). Our work compares three such techniques, including conventional thresholding, advanced filtering, and a novel application of supervised machine learning with ensemble neural networks, based on their ability to reduce uncertainty introduced by the two observed nonideal spectral features while keeping data availability high. The approach leverages data from a field experiment involving a continuous-wave (CW) SpinnerLidar from the Technical University of Denmark (DTU) that provided scans of a wide range of flows both unwaked and waked by a field turbine. Independent measurements from an adjacent meteorological tower within the sampling volume permit experimental validation of the instantaneous velocity uncertainty remaining after retrieval that stems from solid interference and strong spectral noise, which is a validation that has not been performed previously. All three methods perform similarly for non-interfered returns, but the advanced filtering and machine learning techniques perform better when solid interference is present, which allows them to produce overall standard deviations of error between 0.2 and 0.3 m s−1, or a 1 %–22 % improvement versus the conventional thresholding technique, over the rotor height for the unwaked cases. Between the two improved techniques, the advanced filtering produces 3.5 % higher overall data availability, while the machine learning offers a faster runtime (i.e., ∼ 1 s to evaluate) that is therefore more commensurate with the requirements of real-time turbine control. The retrieval techniques are described in terms of application to CW lidar, though they are also relevant to pulsed lidar. Previous work by the authors (Brown and Herges, 2020) explored a novel attempt to quantify uncertainty in the output of a high-fidelity lidar retrieval technique using simulated lidar returns; this article provides true uncertainty quantification versus independent measurement and does so for three techniques rather than one.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
DOE OSTI2021

Assessing climate change impacts on live fuel moisture and wildfire risk using a hydrodynamic vegetation model

Abstract. Live fuel moisture content (LFMC) plays a critical role in wildfire dynamics, but little is known about responses of LFMC to multivariate climate change, e.g., warming temperature, CO2 fertilization, and altered precipitation patterns, leading to a limited prediction ability of future wildfire risks. Here, we use a hydrodynamic demographic vegetation model to estimate LFMC dynamics of chaparral shrubs, a dominant vegetation type in fire-prone southern California. We parameterize the model based on observed shrub allometry and hydraulic traits and evaluate the model's accuracy through comparisons between observed and simulated LFMC of three plant functional types (PFTs) under current climate conditions. Moreover, we estimate the number of days per year of LFMC below 79 % (which is a critical threshold for wildfire danger rating of southern California chaparral shrubs) from 1960 to 2099 for each PFT and compare the number of days below the threshold for medium and high greenhouse gas emission scenarios (RCP4.5 and 8.5). We find that climate change could lead to more days per year (5.2 %–14.8 % increase) with LFMC below 79 % between the historical (1960–1999) and future (2080–2099) periods, implying an increase in wildfire danger for chaparral shrubs in southern California. Under the high greenhouse gas emission scenario during the dry season, we find that the future LFMC reductions mainly result from a warming temperature, which leads to 9.1 %–18.6 % reduction in LFMC. Lower precipitation in the spring leads to a 6.3 %–8.1 % reduction in LFMC. The combined impacts of warming and precipitation change on fire season length are equal to the additive impacts of warming and precipitation change individually. Our results show that the CO2 fertilization will mitigate fire risk by causing a 3.5 %–4.8 % increase in LFMC. Our results suggest that multivariate climate change could cause a significant net reduction in LFMC and thus exacerbate future wildfire danger in chaparral shrub systems.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Evaluating alternative ebullition models for predicting peatland methane emission and its pathways via data–model fusion

Abstract. Understanding the dynamics of peatland methane (CH4) emissions and quantifying sources of uncertainty in estimating peatland CH4 emissions are critical for mitigating climate change. The relative contributions of CH4 emission pathways through ebullition, plant-mediated transport, and diffusion, together with their different transport rates and vulnerability to oxidation, determine the quantity of CH4 to be oxidized before leaving the soil. Notwithstanding their importance, the relative contributions of the emission pathways are highly uncertain. In particular, the ebullition process is more uncertain and can lead to large uncertainties in modeled CH4 emissions. To improve model simulations of CH4 emission and its pathways, we evaluated two model structures: (1) the ebullition bubble growth volume threshold approach (EBG) and (2) the modified ebullition concentration threshold approach (ECT) using CH4 flux and concentration data collected in a peatland in northern Minnesota, USA. When model parameters were constrained using observed CH4 fluxes, the CH4 emissions simulated by the EBG approach (RMSE = 0.53) had a better agreement with observations than the ECT approach (RMSE = 0.61). Further, the EBG approach simulated a smaller contribution from ebullition but more frequent ebullition events than the ECT approach. The EBG approach yielded greatly improved simulations of pore water CH4 concentrations, especially in the deep soil layers, compared to the ECT approach. When constraining the EBG model with both CH4 flux and concentration data in model–data fusion, uncertainty of the modeled CH4 concentration profiles was reduced by 78 % to 86 % in comparison to constraints based on CH4 flux data alone. The improved model capability was attributed to the well-constrained parameters regulating the CH4 production and emission pathways. Our results suggest that the EBG modeling approach better characterizes CH4 emission and underlying mechanisms. Moreover, to achieve the best model results both CH4 flux and concentration data are required to constrain model parameterization.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

TempestExtremes v2.1: a community framework for feature detection, tracking, and analysis in large datasets

TempestExtremes (TE) is a multifaceted framework for feature detection, tracking, and scientific analysis of regional or global Earth system datasets on either rectilinear or unstructured/native grids. Version 2.1 of the TE framework now provides extensive support for examining both nodal (i.e., pointwise) and areal features, including tropical and extratropical cyclones, monsoonal lows and depressions, atmospheric rivers, atmospheric blocking, precipitation clusters, and heat waves. Available operations include nodal and areal thresholding, calculations of quantities related to nodal features such as accumulated cyclone energy and azimuthal wind profiles, filtering data based on the characteristics of nodal features, and stereographic compositing. This paper describes the core algorithms (kernels) that have been added to the TE framework since version 1.0, including algorithms for editing pointwise trajectory files, composition of fields around nodal features, generation of areal masks via thresholding and nodal features, and tracking of areal features in time. Several examples are provided of how these kernels can be combined to produce composite algorithms for evaluating and understanding common atmospheric features and their underlying processes. These examples include analyzing the fraction of precipitation from tropical cyclones, compositing meteorological fields around extratropical cyclones, calculating fractional contribution to poleward vapor transport from atmospheric rivers, and building a climatology of atmospheric blocks.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Identifying atmospheric rivers and their poleward latent heat transport with generalizable neural networks: ARCNNv1

Abstract. Atmospheric rivers (ARs) are extreme weather events that can alleviate drought or cause billions of US dollars in flood damage. By transporting significant amounts of latent energy towards the poles, they are crucial to maintaining the climate system's energy balance. Since there is no first-principle definition of an AR grounded in geophysical fluid mechanics, AR identification is currently performed by a multitude of expert-defined, threshold-based algorithms. The variety of AR detection algorithms has introduced uncertainty into the study of ARs, and the thresholds of the algorithms may not generalize to new climate datasets and resolutions. We train convolutional neural networks (CNNs) to detect ARs while representing this uncertainty; we name these models ARCNNs. To detect ARs without requiring new labeled data and labor-intensive AR detection campaigns, we present a semi-supervised learning framework based on image style transfer. This framework generalizes ARCNNs across climate datasets and input fields. Using idealized and realistic numerical models, together with observations, we assess the performance of the ARCNNs. We test the ARCNNs in an idealized simulation of a shallow-water fluid in which nearly all the tracer transport can be attributed to AR-like filamentary structures. In reanalysis and a high-resolution climate model, we use ARCNNs to calculate the contribution of ARs to meridional latent heat transport, and we demonstrate that this quantity varies considerably due to AR detection uncertainty.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗