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NASA Models of Space Radiation Induced Cancer, Circulatory Disease, and Central Nervous System Effects

The risks of late effects from galactic cosmic rays (GCR) and solar particle events (SPE) are potentially a limitation to long-term space travel. The late effects of highest concern have significant lethality including cancer, effects to the central nervous system (CNS), and circulatory diseases (CD). For cancer and CD the use of age and gender specific models with uncertainty assessments based on human epidemiology data for low LET radiation combined with relative biological effectiveness factors (RBEs) and dose- and dose-rate reduction effectiveness factors (DDREF) to extrapolate these results to space radiation exposures is considered the current "state-of-the-art". The revised NASA Space Risk Model (NSRM-2014) is based on recent radio-epidemiology data for cancer and CD, however a key feature of the NSRM-2014 is the formulation of particle fluence and track structure based radiation quality factors for solid cancer and leukemia risk estimates, which are distinct from the ICRP quality factors, and shown to lead to smaller uncertainties in risk estimates. Many persons exposed to radiation on earth as well as astronauts are life-time never-smokers, which is estimated to significantly modify radiation cancer and CD risk estimates. A key feature of the NASA radiation protection model is the classification of radiation workers by smoking history in setting dose limits. Possible qualitative differences between GCR and low LET radiation increase uncertainties and are not included in previous risk estimates. Two important qualitative differences are emerging from research studies. The first is the increased lethality of tumors observed in animal models compared to low LET radiation or background tumors. The second are Non- Targeted Effects (NTE), which include bystander effects and genomic instability, which has been observed in cell and animal models of cancer risks. NTE's could lead to significant changes in RBE and DDREF estimates for GCR particles, and the potential effectiveness of radiation mitigator's. The NSRM- 2014 approaches to model radiation quality dependent lethality and NTE's will be described. CNS effects include both early changes that may occur during long space missions and late effects such as Alzheimer's disease (AD). AD effects 50% of the population above age 80-yr, is a degenerative disease that worsens with time after initial onset leading to death, and has no known cure. AD is difficult to detect at early stages and the small number of low LET epidemiology studies undertaken have not identified an association with low dose radiation. However experimental studies in mice suggest GCR may lead to early onset AD. We discuss modeling approaches to consider mechanisms whereby radiation would lead to earlier onset of occurrence of AD. Biomarkers of AD include amyloid beta (A(Beta)) plaques, and neurofibrillary tangles (NFT) made up of aggregates of the hyperphosphorylated form of the micro-tubule associated, tau protein. Related markers include synaptic degeneration, dentritic spine loss, and neuronal cell loss through apoptosis. Radiation may affect these processes by causing oxidative stress, aberrant signaling following DNA damage, and chronic neuroinflammation. Cell types to be considered in multi-scale models are neurons, astrocytes, and microglia. We developed biochemical and cell kinetics models of DNA damage signaling related to glycogen synthase kinase-3(Beta) (GSK3(Beta)) and neuroinflammation, and considered multi-scale modeling approaches to develop computer simulations of cell interactions and their relationships to A(Beta) plaques and NFTs. Comparison of model results to experimental data for the age specific development of A(Beta) plaques in transgenic mice will be discussed.

Cucinotta, Francis A.↗

The HYTHIRM Project: Flight Thermography of the Space Shuttle During the Hypersonic Re-entry

This report describes a NASA Langley led endeavor sponsored by the NASA Engineering Safety Center, the Space Shuttle Program Office and the NASA Aeronautics Research Mission Directorate to demonstrate a quantitative thermal imaging capability. A background and an overview of several multidisciplinary efforts that culminated in the acquisition of high resolution calibrated infrared imagery of the Space Shuttle during hypervelocity atmospheric entry is presented. The successful collection of thermal data has demonstrated the feasibility of obtaining remote high-resolution infrared imagery during hypersonic flight for the accurate measurement of surface temperature. To maximize science and engineering return, the acquisition of quantitative thermal imagery and capability demonstration was targeted towards three recent Shuttle flights - two of which involved flight experiments flown on Discovery. In coordination with these two Shuttle flight experiments, a US Navy NP-3D aircraft was flown between 26-41 nautical miles below Discovery and remotely monitored surface temperature of the Orbiter at Mach 8.4 (STS-119) and Mach 14.7 (STS-128) using a long-range infrared optical package referred to as Cast Glance. This same Navy aircraft successfully monitored the Orbiter Atlantis traveling at approximately Mach 14.3 during its return from the successful Hubble repair mission (STS-125). The purpose of this paper is to describe the systematic approach used by the Hypersonic Thermodynamic Infrared Measurements team to develop and implement a set of mission planning tools designed to establish confidence in the ability of an imaging platform to reliably acquire, track and return global quantitative surface temperatures of the Shuttle during entry. The mission planning tools included a pre-flight capability to predict the infrared signature of the Shuttle. Such tools permitted optimization of the hardware configuration to increase signal-to-noise and to maximize the available dynamic range while mitigating the potential for saturation. Post flight, analysis tools were used to assess atmospheric effects and to convert the 2-D intensity images to 3-D temperature maps of the windward surface. Comparison of the spatially resolved global thermal measurements to surface thermocouples and CFD prediction is made. Successful demonstration of a quantitative, spatially resolved, global temperature measurement on the Shuttle suggests future applications towards hypersonic flight test programs within NASA, DoD and DARPA along with flight test opportunities supporting NASA's project Constellation.

Horvath, Thomas J.↗

Miniature EVA Software Defined Radio

As NASA embarks upon developing the Next-Generation Extra Vehicular Activity (EVA) Radio for deep space exploration, the demands on EVA battery life will substantially increase. The number of modes and frequency bands required will continue to grow in order to enable efficient and complex multi-mode operations including communications, navigation, and tracking applications. Whether conducting astronaut excursions, communicating to soldiers, or first responders responding to emergency hazards, NASA has developed an innovative, affordable, miniaturized, power-efficient software defined radio that offers unprecedented power-efficient flexibility. This lightweight, programmable, S-band, multi-service, frequency- agile EVA software defined radio (SDR) supports data, telemetry, voice, and both standard and high-definition video. Features include a modular design, an easily scalable architecture, and the EVA SDR allows for both stationary and mobile battery powered handheld operations. Currently, the radio is equipped with an S-band RF section. However, its scalable architecture can accommodate multiple RF sections simultaneously to cover multiple frequency bands. The EVA SDR also supports multiple network protocols. It currently implements a Hybrid Mesh Network based on the 802.11s open standard protocol. The radio targets RF channel data rates up to 20 Mbps and can be equipped with a real-time operating system (RTOS) that can be switched off for power-aware applications. The EVA SDR's modular design permits implementation of the same hardware at all Network Nodes concept. This approach assures the portability of the same software into any radio in the system. It also brings several benefits to the entire system including reducing system maintenance, system complexity, and development cost.

Pozhidaev, Aleksey↗

Concurrent Image Processing Executive (CIPE). Volume 1: Design overview

The design and implementation of a Concurrent Image Processing Executive (CIPE), which is intended to become the support system software for a prototype high performance science analysis workstation are described. The target machine for this software is a JPL/Caltech Mark 3fp Hypercube hosted by either a MASSCOMP 5600 or a Sun-3, Sun-4 workstation; however, the design will accommodate other concurrent machines of similar architecture, i.e., local memory, multiple-instruction-multiple-data (MIMD) machines. The CIPE system provides both a multimode user interface and an applications programmer interface, and has been designed around four loosely coupled modules: user interface, host-resident executive, hypercube-resident executive, and application functions. The loose coupling between modules allows modification of a particular module without significantly affecting the other modules in the system. In order to enhance hypercube memory utilization and to allow expansion of image processing capabilities, a specialized program management method, incremental loading, was devised. To minimize data transfer between host and hypercube, a data management method which distributes, redistributes, and tracks data set information was implemented. The data management also allows data sharing among application programs. The CIPE software architecture provides a flexible environment for scientific analysis of complex remote sensing image data, such as planetary data and imaging spectrometry, utilizing state-of-the-art concurrent computation capabilities.

Lee, Meemong↗

Intercalibration of Meteorological Satellite Imagers Using VIRS, ATSR-2 and MODIS

Global retrievals of surface, cloud and radiative properties from geostationary (GEO) and low-Earth-orbit (LEO) meteorological satellites require accurate calibration of their imagers. An accurate and consistent calibration increases the reliability and effectiveness of long-term monitoring of climate changes. More emphasis has been placed on calibrating the thermal infrared (IR) channel. The lack of on-board calibration in the visible (VIS) channel has prompted efforts to characterize the degradation of the VIS sensor using vicarious post-launch calibration techniques that measure bright stable desert targets from space and aircraft or using satellite-to-satellite normalizations. While such inter-calibrations are valuable and widely used, the lack of a well-characterized calibration reference source and the lengthy time delay between updates have minimized their effectiveness in climate monitoring. To address these shortcomings, this paper examines the use of research satellite imagers to provide stable calibration references for the visible (VIS, approximately 0.65 micrometers) channels and develops a method for rapid intercalibration of existing satellites. Calibration coefficients are determined for the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites (GOES-8 to GOES-10), Geostationary Meteorological Satellite (GMS-5), Meteosat-7, and the NOAA-14 Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR). As a reference calibration source, this technique uses the self-calibrating sensors on the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Visible Infrared Radiometers (VIRS) or the ERS-2 Along Track Scanning Radiometer (ATSR-2). GOES-8 is calibrated with VIRS and then its calibration is transferred to other GEO or LEO satellites. The absolute accuracy of this technique relies on the assumption that the on-board calibration is stable and well maintained. Minnis et al. assessed the VIRS calibration using comparisons with other self-calibrated satellite sensors including the broadband Clouds and Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES) scanners, the ERS-2 Along Track Scanning Radiometer (ATSR-2), and the Terra Moderate-resolution Imaging Spectrometer (MODIS). Thus, the VIRS data can be confidently used as the initial reference source.

Nguyen, Louis↗

Orbit Determination Support for the Microwave Anisotropy Probe (MAP)

The Microwave Anisotropy Probe (MAP) is a Medium Class Explorers (MIDEX) mission produced in partnership between Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) and Princeton University. The main science objective of the MAP mission is to produce an accurate full-sky map of the cosmic microwave background temperature fluctuations anisotropy. MAP was launched from the Cape Canaveral Air Force Station Complex 17 aboard a Delta II 7425-10 expendable launch vehicle at exactly 19:46:46.183 UTC on June 30, 2001. The spacecraft received a nominal direct insertion by the Delta into a 185 km circular orbit. MAP was then maneuvered into a sequence of phasing loops designed to set up a lunar swingby (gravity-assisted acceleration) of the spacecraft onto a transfer trajectory to a Lissajous orbit about the Earth-Sun L2 point. The mission duration is approximately 27 months with 3 to 4 months of transfer time to the final mission orbit about L2. The MAP transfer orbit consisted of 3.5 phasing loops: the first loop has a 7-day period, the second and third loops have a 9-day period, and the last half loop has a 4-day period as illustrated in Figure 1, which also indicates the placement of maneuvers. A Pfinal correction maneuver was performed 18 hours after the last perigee to more closely achieve the targeted lissajous orbit. The lunar encounter or swingby took place approximately 30 days after launch. After the lunar encounter, the spacecraft will cruise for approximately 120 days before it arrives at L2. A Mid-Course Correction (MCC) maneuver was executed seven days after the swingby to further refine the trajectory. Once the MAP satellite is injected into the L2 Lissajous orbit, it will perform occasional stationkeeping maneuvers to maintain the Lissajous orbit for a minimum of two years (and a goal of four years). Because of its complex orbital characteristics, the mission provided a unique challenge to orbit determination (OD) support in many orbital regimes. Extensive trajectory error covariance analysis was performed to predict ephemeris accuracy for the OD process using a Bayesian least-squares technique. The orbit determination error analysis is essential for maneuver planning and maneuver recovery study. Several tracking scenarios were investigated for each phase of the mission. This paper provides a summary of the premission trajectory covariance error analysis, as well as actual real-time OD results. The use and impact of the various tracking stations, systems, and measurements will be discussed. Details of the operational OD support and the inferred OD accuracy will be presented, and the results will be compared to the premission covariance analysis, In addition, there will be a discussion of the challenges presented to OD support including delta-Vs at apogee as well as perigee, and effects due to spacecraft attitude mode, in light of their implications to the OD accuracy and covariance analysis.

Truong, Son H.↗

Autonomous Sciencecraft Experiment (ASE) Test Operations in 2003

NASA has identified the development of an autonomously operating spacecraft as a necessity for an expanded program of missions exploring the Solar System. The Autonomous Sciencecraft Experiment (ASE) has been selected for flight demonstration by NASA s New Millennium Program (NMP) as part of the Space Technology 6 (ST6) mission. ASE is scheduled to fly on the US Air Force Research Laboratory (AFRL) Techsat-21 constellation in 2006. Tech- Sat-21 consists of three satellites flying in a variable-geometry formation in Earth orbit. Each satellite is equipped with X-band Synthetic Aperture Radar, yielding high spatial resolution images (approx. 3 m) of the Earth s surface. The constellation will fly at an altitude of 550 km, in a 35.4 inclination circular orbit, yielding exact repeat-track observations every 13 days. Prior to full deployment, elements of the versatile ASE spacecraft command and control software, image formation software and science processing software will be utilized and tested on two very different platforms in 2003: AirSAR and EO-1 (described below). Advantages of Autonomous Operations: ASE will demonstrate advanced autonomous science data acquisition, processing, and product downlink prioritization, as well as autonomous spacecraft command and control, and fault detection. The advantages of spacecraft autonomy are to future missions include: (a) making the best use of reduced downlink; (b) the overcoming of communication delays through decisionmaking in situ, enabling fast reaction to dynamic events; (c) an increase of science content per byte of returned data; and (d) an avoidance of return of null (no-change/no feature) datasets: if there is no change detectable between two scenes of the same target, there is no need to return the second dataset.

Chien, S.↗

Assimilation of Precipitation Information Retrieved from Passive Microwave Sensors

Estimates of surface precipitation and the associated vertical latent heating structure can be retrieved from space-borne passive microwave sensors such as the TRMM Microwave Imager (TMI) and Special Sensor Microwave/Imager (SSM/I). Studies have shown that assimilation of microwave rain rates can improve the quality of global analysis and forecast. Numerical weather prediction (NWP) centers are beginning to make operational use of these data. In the next few years, there will be a gradual increase in microwave rain products available from operational and research satellites, culminating to a target constellation of 9 satellites to provide global rain measurements every 3 hours with the proposed Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) mission to be launched around 2007. Realizing the full potential of these observations in data assimilation will require continued advances in retrieval algorithms, assimilation techniques, and model physics. I present results from two research efforts at NASA GSFC. The first is on the assimilation of tropical precipitation using temperature/moisture tendency corrections within a continuous variational assimilation framework to improve analyses and forecasts produced by the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) global data assimilation system. Results show that assimilation of TMI and SSM/I rain rates improves not only precipitation and moisture, but also the related clouds, radiation energy fluxes, and large-scale circulations in GEOS analyses. The improved analyses also yield better short-range forecasts, quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF) threat scores, and storm track predictions. The second part consists of results from exploratory experiments on variational assimilation of convective and stratiform latent heating profiles within the general framework of model parameter estimation as a way to identify systematic model errors and optimize physical paremeterization schemes in global forecast and climate models.

Hou, Arthur Y.↗

Method and apparatus for contour mapping using synthetic aperture radar

By using two SAR antennas spaced a known distance, B, and oriented at substantially the same look angle to illuminate the same target area, pixel data from the two antennas may be compared in phase to determine a difference delta phi from which a slant angle theta is determined for each pixel point from an equation Delta phi = (2 pi B/lambda)sin(theta - alpha), where lambda is the radar wavelength and alpha is the roll angle of the aircraft. The height, h, of each pixel point from the aircraft is determined from the equation h = R cos theta, and from the known altitude, a, of the aircraft above sea level, the altitude (elevation), a', of each point is determined from the difference a - h. This elevation data may be displayed with the SAR image by, for example, quantizing the elevation at increments of 100 feet starting at sea level, and color coding pixels of the same quantized elevation. The distance, d, of each pixel from the ground track of the aircraft used for the display may be determined more accurately from the equation d = R sin theta.

Goldstein, R. M.↗

Concurrent Image Processing Executive (CIPE)

The design and implementation of a Concurrent Image Processing Executive (CIPE), which is intended to become the support system software for a prototype high performance science analysis workstation are discussed. The target machine for this software is a JPL/Caltech Mark IIIfp Hypercube hosted by either a MASSCOMP 5600 or a Sun-3, Sun-4 workstation; however, the design will accommodate other concurrent machines of similar architecture, i.e., local memory, multiple-instruction-multiple-data (MIMD) machines. The CIPE system provides both a multimode user interface and an applications programmer interface, and has been designed around four loosely coupled modules; (1) user interface, (2) host-resident executive, (3) hypercube-resident executive, and (4) application functions. The loose coupling between modules allows modification of a particular module without significantly affecting the other modules in the system. In order to enhance hypercube memory utilization and to allow expansion of image processing capabilities, a specialized program management method, incremental loading, was devised. To minimize data transfer between host and hypercube a data management method which distributes, redistributes, and tracks data set information was implemented.

Lee, Meemong↗

SIMBOL-X: A Formation Flying Mission on HEO for Exploring the Universe

SIMBOL-X is a high energy new generation telescope covering by a single instrument a continuous energy range starting at classical X-rays and extending to hard X-rays, i.e. from 0.5 to 80 keV. It is using in this field a focalizing payload which until now was used for energy below 10 keV only, via the construction of a telescope distributed on two satellites flying in formation. SIMBOL-X permits a gain of two orders of magnitude in sensibility and spatial resolution in comparison to state of the art hard X-rays instruments. The mirror satellite will be in free flight on a high elliptical orbit and will target the object to observe very precisely, thus focusing the hard X-ray emission thanks to this mirror module. At the focal point area which is situated 20 meters behind the mirror satellite, the detector satellite maintains its position on a forced orbit thanks to a radio link with the mirror satellite and a lateral displacement sensor using a beam emitted onboard the mirror satellite. This configuration is said "formation flying". The location of the detector satellite shall be very finely tuned as it carries the focal plane of this distributed telescope. To provide science measurements, the Simbol-X orbit has been chosen High elliptic (HEO), which means elliptical orbit with a high perigee altitude. Preliminary studies where made with an orbit with an altitude of the perigee of 44000km and altitude of the apogee of 253000km. The orbit was seven days ground track repeated in order to maintain a perigee pass over the Malindi ground station to download scientific telemetry. But as studies went on, difficulties in mass budget, link budget, perigee maintenance and formation flying maintenance were raised. This was mainly due to the vicinity of the Moon and its disturbing effect on the satellites orbits. Alternative orbits have been proposed in order to demonstrate the feasibility of the mission. The problematic of bringing the two satellites from their injection orbit to their operational orbit 20 m apart from each other and then maintain this configuration is very challenging. It requires theoretical development of the relative motion between two satellites in high eccentric orbit with large differential disturbance on the two bodies. This paper will present the mission analysis for the Simbol-X satellites with the complex problematic of doing formation flying in high elliptic orbit.

Gamet, Philippe↗

Guidance, Navigation, and Control Program

The Rendezvous and Proximity Operations Program (RPOP) is real-time guidance, navigation, and control (GN&C) domain piloting-aid software that provides 3D Orbiter graphics and runs on the Space Shuttle's Criticality-3 Payload and General Support Computer (PGSC) in the crew cockpit. This software provides the crew with Situational Awareness during the rendezvous and proximity operations phases of flight. RPOP can be configured from flight to flight, accounting for mission-specific flight scenarios and target vehicles, via initialization load (I-load) data files. The software provides real-time, automated, closed-loop guidance recommendations and the capability to integrate the crew s manual backup techniques. The software can bring all relative navigation sensor data, including the Orbiter's GPC (general purpose computer) data, into one central application to provide comprehensive situational awareness of the rendezvous and proximity operations trajectory. RPOP also can separately maintain trajectory estimates (past, current, and predicted) based on certain data types and co-plot them, in order to show how the various navigation solutions compare. RPOP s best estimate of the relative trajectory is determined by a relative Kalman filter processing data provided by the sensor suite s most accurate sensor, the trajectory control sensor (TCS). Integrated with the Kalman filter is an algorithm that identifies the reflector that the TCS is tracking. Because RPOP runs on PC laptop computers, the development and certification lifecycles are more agile, flexible, and cheaper than those that govern the Orbiter FSW (flight software) that runs in the GPC. New releases of RPOP can be turned around on a 3- to 6-month template, from new Change Request (CR) to certification, depending on the complexity of the changes.

Hinkel, Heather↗

Illumination Conditions at the Lunar Poles: Implications for Future Exploration

We produced 400 x 400 km Digital Terrain Models (DTMs) of the lunar poles from Lunar Orbiter Laser Altimeter (LOLA) ranging measurements. To achieve consistent, high-resolution DTMs of 20 m/pixel the individual ranging profiles were adjusted to remove small track-to-track o sets. We used these LOLADTMs to simulate illumination conditions at surface level for 50 x 50 km regions centered on the poles. Illumination was derived in one-hour increments from 01 January, 2017 to 01 January, 2037 to cover the lunar precessional cycle of 18.6 years and to determine illumination conditions over several future mission cycles. We identified three regions receiving high levels of illumination at each pole, e.g. the equator-facing crater rims of Hinshelwood, Peary and Whipple for the north pole and the rim of Shackleton crater, and two locations on a ridge between Shackleton and de Gerlache crater for the south pole. Their average illumination levels range from 69.5% to 82.9%, with the highest illumination levels found at the north pole on the rim of Whipple crater. A more detailed study was carried out for these sites as targets for a lander and/or rover equipped with solar arrays. For this purpose we assumed a lander with a structural height of two meters above the ground (height of the solar panels). Here average illumination levels range from 77.1% to 88.0%, with the maximum found at the ridge between Shackleton and de Gerlache crater on the south pole. Distances, sizes and slopes of nearby Permanently Shadowed Regions (PSRs) as a prime science target were also assessed in this case.

LOLA↗

The International Space Station Supports International Polar Year (IPY)

Every day, ISS astronauts photograph designated sites and dynamic events on the Earth's surface using digital cameras equipped with a variety of lenses. Depending on observation parameters, astronauts can collect high resolution (4-6 m pixel size) or synoptic views (lower resolution but covering very large areas) digital data in 3 (red-green-blue) color bands. ISS crews have daily opportunities to document a variety of high-latitude phenomena. Although lighting conditions, ground track and other viewing parameters change with orbital precessions and season, the 51.6o orbital inclination and 400 km altitude of the ISS provide the crew an unique vantage point for collecting image-based data of polar phenomena, including surface observations to roughly 65o latitude, and upper atmospheric observations that reach nearly to the poles. During the 2007-2009 timeframe of the IPY, polar observations will become a scientific focus for the CEO experiment; the experiment is designated ISS-IPY. We solicit requests from scientists for observations from the ISS that are coordinated with or complement ground-based polar studies. The CEO imagery website for ISS-IPY provides an on-line form that allows IPY investigators to interact with CEO scientists and define their imagery requests. This information is integrated into daily communications with the ISS astronauts about their Earth Observations targets. All data collected are cataloged and posted on the website for downloading and assimilation into IPY projects. Examples of imagery and detailed information about scientific observations from the ISS can also be downloaded from the ISS-IPY web site.

Evans, Cynthia A.↗

Mars Optimal Aerobrake Maneuver Estimation

Mars science satellites often perform orbit changes to obtain different measurements, ground tracks or relay operations. Large reductions in semi-major axis and eccentricity can be done efficiently using the atmospheric drag, a.k.a aerobrake. Aerobraking is one of the most challenging planetary orbit maneuvers in terms of planning and operations. The most important consideration for aerobraking is maintaining the spacecraft's periapsis within an allocated atmospheric density corridor, which is accomplished by raising or lowering periapsis through one or a series of very small and short maneuvers. These maneuvers must be performed as efficiently as possible due to propellant constraints. Work herein details a fast and accurate method to calculate the required impulsive velocity changes in the orbit to guarantee that the spacecraft remains in a prescribed density corridor. The method makes use of the orbit's state transition matrix to map the solution space around the reference orbit. It evaluates the most efficient maneuver epochs to target a given periapsis change with a linear optimal control for single or multiple maneuvers. A fast calculation of the maneuver allows for a more comprehensive evaluation of the trade space, and the selected maneuver may be re-targeted later with a higher- fidelity model. Comparisons against fully propagated models and direct method optimizations demonstrate the new method's performance.

Sarli, Bruno V.↗

Machine Learning based Aircraft Performance Model Estimation for Trajectory Prediction

The accurate prediction of aircraft trajectory by ground-based decision support tools is a critical component of air traffic management in the US National Airspace System (NAS). Accurate predictions of where the aircraft will be in the future or when they will arrive at specific locations (e.g., fixes) is a key enabler for sequencing and efficient arrival management of flights. Traditional physics based aircraft trajectory prediction relies on a simplified point-mass total energy model whose parameters are referred to as Aircraft Performance Model (APM) parameters. Even though the performance coefficients and weight of an aircraft are a vital part of the aircraft performance model’s predictions and accuracy, these coefficients are proprietary in nature and therefore, unavailable to decision-support tools. Current approaches freeze some coefficients to default base of aircraft data (BADA) values and optimize others. However, the APM parameters are highly coupled by the flight dynamics and prioritizing one parameter over others leads to bias and skewed predictions. To alleviate this problem, we provide a combined optimization framework to predict all the critical (thrust, drag and weight) APM parameters. This paper is focused on training Machine Learning (ML) models that map historical flights to optimized APM parameters that provide the best fit (in terms of prediction error). Our dataset obtained from NASA’s Sherlock data warehouse is comprised of thousands of historical flights and includes weather and track data collected from 2019. Using different subsets of relevant features (e.g., aircraft type), we trained several ML models to estimate the aircraft’s take off weight, drag polar coefficients (both parasitic and lift induced), and thrust settings (multiplier applied to the maximum engine thrust). The chosen flights are from three of the most common aircraft types (B738, B737, and A320) arriving at four airports (LAX, DEN, MSP, and DFW). Our ML approach is comprised of two different solutions: 1- using a subset of features that are known prior to the flight departure and do not change during flight (such as engine type, current temperature at departure & destination airports, aircraft type) and 2 - using a subset of temporal features of the flight trajectory (such as cruise altitude, Mach, airspeed, and rate of climb) in addition to the pre-departure features from the first solution. The labels or target variables are the APM parameters that were obtained by an optimized ordinary differential equations (ODE) fitting process (applied to individual flights). The ODE-fitting is very time intensive and is therefore performed offline. Thus, training an ML model to learn the relationship between the flight features and ODE-generated labels enables faster estimation of the APM parameters and is therefore amenable to real-time prediction. Various ML models including linear regression, random forest, XGBoost, and neural network were trained, and the results are compared. After model validation and hyperparameter-tuning, we observed that the Random Forest model outperformed the other three models by the overall mean square error (MSE) of 2% for the first solution and 1.5% for the second solution. Finally, the ML-derived parameters are compared against default BADA APM parameters using NASA’s Autonomy Development toolkit (ADK) simulation software. The simulation results for one of each aircraft type is shown and discussed.

Aida Sharif Rohani↗

Optical Sensors for Monitoring Gamma and Neutron Radiation

For safety and efficiency, nuclear reactors must be carefully monitored to provide feedback that enables the fission rate to be held at a constant target level via adjustments in the position of neutron-absorbing rods and moderating coolant flow rates. For automated reactor control, the monitoring system should provide calibrated analog or digital output. The sensors must survive and produce reliable output with minimal drift for at least one to two years, for replacement only during refueling. Small sensor size is preferred to enable more sensors to be placed in the core for more detailed characterization of the local fission rate and fuel consumption, since local deviations from the norm tend to amplify themselves. Currently, reactors are monitored by local power range meters (LPRMs) based on the neutron flux or gamma thermometers based on the gamma flux. LPRMs tend to be bulky, while gamma thermometers are subject to unwanted drift. Both electronic reactor sensors are plagued by electrical noise induced by ionizing radiation near the reactor core. A fiber optic sensor system was developed that is capable of tracking thermal neutron fluence and gamma flux in order to monitor nuclear reactor fission rates. The system provides near-real-time feedback from small- profile probes that are not sensitive to electromagnetic noise. The key novel feature is the practical design of fiber optic radiation sensors. The use of an actinoid element to monitor neutron flux in fiber optic EFPI (extrinsic Fabry-Perot interferometric) sensors is a new use of material. The materials and structure used in the sensor construction can be adjusted to result in a sensor that is sensitive to just thermal, gamma, or neutron stimulus, or any combination of the three. The tested design showed low sensitivity to thermal and gamma stimuli and high sensitivity to neutrons, with a fast response time.

Boyd, Clark D.↗

Autonomous Navigation for Deep Space Missions

Navigation (determining where the spacecraft is at any given time, controlling its path to achieve desired targets), performed using ground-in- the-loop techniques: (1) Data includes 2-way radiometric (Doppler, range), interferometric (Delta- Differential One-way Range), and optical (images of natural bodies taken by onboard camera) (2) Data received on the ground, processed to determine orbit, commands sent to execute maneuvers to control orbit. A self-contained, onboard, autonomous navigation system can: (1) Eliminate delays due to round-trip light time (2) Eliminate the human factors in ground-based processing (3) Reduce turnaround time from navigation update to minutes, down to seconds (4) React to late-breaking data. At JPL, we have developed the framework and computational elements of an autonomous navigation system, called AutoNav. It was originally developed as one of the technologies for the Deep Space 1 mission, launched in 1998; subsequently used on three other spacecraft, for four different missions. The primary use has been on comet missions to track comets during flybys, and impact one comet.

navigation↗