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At least 1,009 records · Page 56

An Efficient Approach for the Reliability Analysis of Phased-Mission Systems with Dependent Failures

We consider the reliability analysis of phased-mission systems with common-cause failures in this paper. Phased-mission systems (PMS) are systems supporting missions characterized by multiple, consecutive, and nonoverlapping phases of operation. System components may be subject to different stresses as well as different reliability requirements throughout the course of the mission. As a result, component behavior and relationships may need to be modeled differently from phase to phase when performing a system-level reliability analysis. This consideration poses unique challenges to existing analysis methods. The challenges increase when common-cause failures (CCF) are incorporated in the model. CCF are multiple dependent component failures within a system that are a direct result of a shared root cause, such as sabotage, flood, earthquake, power outage, or human errors. It has been shown by many reliability studies that CCF tend to increase a system's joint failure probabilities and thus contribute significantly to the overall unreliability of systems subject to CCF.We propose a separable phase-modular approach to the reliability analysis of phased-mission systems with dependent common-cause failures as one way to meet the above challenges in an efficient and elegant manner. Our methodology is twofold: first, we separate the effects of CCF from the PMS analysis using the total probability theorem and the common-cause event space developed based on the elementary common-causes; next, we apply an efficient phase-modular approach to analyze the reliability of the PMS. The phase-modular approach employs both combinatorial binary decision diagram and Markov-chain solution methods as appropriate. We provide an example of a reliability analysis of a PMS with both static and dynamic phases as well as CCF as an illustration of our proposed approach. The example is based on information extracted from a Mars orbiter project. The reliability model for this orbiter considers the various phases of Launch, Cruise, Mars Orbit Insertion, and Orbit. Some of the CCF for the orbiter in this mission include environmental effects, such as micrometeoroids, human operator errors, and software errors.

reliability analysis↗

Mechanization of and experience with a triplex fly-by-wire backup control system

A redundant three-axis analog control system was designed and developed to back up a digital fly-by-wire control system for an F-8C airplane. Forty-two flights, involving 58 hours of flight time, were flown by six pilots. The mechanization and operational experience with the backup control system, the problems involved in synchronizing it with the primary system, and the reliability of the system are discussed. The backup control system was dissimilar to the primary system, and it provided satisfactory handling through the flight envelope evaluated. Limited flight tests of a variety of control tasks showed that control was also satisfactory when the backup control system was controlled by a minimum-displacement (force) side stick. The operational reliability of the F-8 digital fly-by-wire control system was satisfactory, with no unintentional downmodes to the backup control system in flight. The ground and flight reliability of the system's components is discussed.

Lock, W. P.↗

Ultra Reliable Closed Loop Life Support for Long Space Missions

Spacecraft human life support systems can achieve ultra reliability by providing sufficient spares to replace all failed components. The additional mass of spares for ultra reliability is approximately equal to the original system mass, provided that the original system reliability is not too low. Acceptable reliability can be achieved for the Space Shuttle and Space Station by preventive maintenance and by replacing failed units. However, on-demand maintenance and repair requires a logistics supply chain in place to provide the needed spares. In contrast, a Mars or other long space mission must take along all the needed spares, since resupply is not possible. Long missions must achieve ultra reliability, a very low failure rate per hour, since they will take years rather than weeks and cannot be cut short if a failure occurs. Also, distant missions have a much higher mass launch cost per kilogram than near-Earth missions. Achieving ultra reliable spacecraft life support systems with acceptable mass will require a well-planned and extensive development effort. Analysis must determine the reliability requirement and allocate it to subsystems and components. Ultra reliability requires reducing the intrinsic failure causes, providing spares to replace failed components and having "graceful" failure modes. Technologies, components, and materials must be selected and designed for high reliability. Long duration testing is needed to confirm very low failure rates. Systems design should segregate the failure causes in the smallest, most easily replaceable parts. The system must be designed, developed, integrated, and tested with system reliability in mind. Maintenance and reparability of failed units must not add to the probability of failure. The overall system must be tested sufficiently to identify any design errors. A program to develop ultra reliable space life support systems with acceptable mass should start soon since it must be a long term effort.

Jones, Harry W.↗

Factors which Limit the Value of Additional Redundancy in Human Rated Launch Vehicle Systems

The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) has embarked on an ambitious program to return humans to the moon and beyond. As NASA moves forward in the development and design of new launch vehicles for future space exploration, it must fully consider the implications that rule-based requirements of redundancy or fault tolerance have on system reliability/risk. These considerations include common cause failure, increased system complexity, combined serial and parallel configurations, and the impact of design features implemented to control premature activation. These factors and others must be considered in trade studies to support design decisions that balance safety, reliability, performance and system complexity to achieve a relatively simple, operable system that provides the safest and most reliable system within the specified performance requirements. This paper describes conditions under which additional functional redundancy can impede improved system reliability. Examples from current NASA programs including the Ares I Upper Stage will be shown.

Anderson, Joel M.↗

Probabilistic Grid Reliability Analysis with Energy Storage Systems

SAND2025-12025O The Probabilistic Grid Reliability Analysis with Energy Storage Systems (ProGRESS) software tool is an open-source tool for assessing the resource adequacy of the evolving electric power grid integrated with energy storage systems (ESS). This tool uses a simulation engine to create diverse scenarios that test the limits of the modern power grid consisting of a high-volume ESS and variable energy resources (VER). Sandia National Laboratories is a multimission laboratory managed and operated by National Technology & Engineering Solutions of Sandia, LLC, a wholly owned subsidiary of Honeywell International Inc., for the U.S. Department of Energy’s National Nuclear Security Administration under contract DE-NA0003525.

Nguyen, Tu↗

Reliability and quality assurance on the MOD 2 wind system

The Safety, Reliability, and Quality Assurance (R&QA) approach developed for the largest wind turbine generator, the Mod 2, is described. The R&QA approach assures that the machine is not hazardous to the public or to the operating personnel, is operated unattended on a utility grid, demonstrates reliable operation, and helps establish the quality assurance and maintainability requirements for future wind turbine projects. The significant guideline consisted of a failure modes and effects analysis (FMEA) during the design phase, hardware inspections during parts fabrication, and three simple documents to control activities during machine construction and operation.

Mason, W. E. B.↗

Photovoltaic power systems for rural areas of developing countries

Systems technology, reliability, and present and projected costs of photovoltaic systems are discussed using data derived from NASA, Lewis Research Center experience with photovoltaic systems deployed with a variety of users. Operating systems in two villages, one in Upper Volta and the other in southwestern Arizona are described. Energy cost comparisons are presented for photovoltaic systems versus alternative energy sources. Based on present system technology, reliability, and costs, photovoltaics provides a realistic energy option for developing nations.

Rosenblum, L.↗

Q-switched laser prelase detection circuit

A compact electronic circuit was developed to detect prelasing in Q-swithed pulsed laser systems and once detected to shut down the laser before the next laser pulse occurs. The circuit is small, compact, and uses a minimum of components which makes it quite economical, thus readily lending itself to commercial applications. It can easily be incorporated into virtually any Q-switched laser system or reliability of a laser system by reducing a source of possible costly optical damage. The circuit operation and instrument requirements necessary to incorporate the circuit into a laser system are discussed.

Lockard, George E.↗

Reliability Growth in Space Life Support Systems

A hardware system's failure rate often increases over time due to wear and aging, but not always. Some systems instead show reliability growth, a decreasing failure rate with time, due to effective failure analysis and remedial hardware upgrades. Reliability grows when failure causes are removed by improved design. A mathematical reliability growth model allows the reliability growth rate to be computed from the failure data. The space shuttle was extensively maintained, refurbished, and upgraded after each flight and it experienced significant reliability growth during its operational life. In contrast, the International Space Station (ISS) is much more difficult to maintain and upgrade and its failure rate has been constant over time. The ISS Carbon Dioxide Removal Assembly (CDRA) reliability has slightly decreased. Failures on ISS and with the ISS CDRA continue to be a challenge.

life support↗

ATTRACTOR: Autonomy Teaming and TRAjectories for Complex Trusted Operational Reliability

Autonomous systems (AS) are crucial to realizing the vision of new, complex transportation modes, such as advanced air mobility (AAM) and urban air mobility (UAM). A chief barrier to induction of AS into aviation is insufficient understanding of AS reliability in time-critical and safety-critical environments—an obstacle to certification. ATTRACTOR is aimed at building a basis for certification of classes of autonomous cyber-physical-human systems (CPHS) via establishing metrics and models of trustworthiness and trust in multi-agent team interactions, analyzable trajectories, explainability of computational algorithms (explainable artificial intelligence, or XAI), and persistent modeling and simulation, in the context of missions planning and operation. By “building a basis for certification,” we mean acquiring an understanding of when a system is trustworthy and developing computable means to estimate trustworthiness and trust in order to eventually inform functional requirements that contribute to certification. The outcomes are applicable not just to aviation but to all domains that rely on autonomous systems.

Autonomy↗

Noise and neuronal populations conspire to encode simple waveforms reliably

Sensory systems rely on populations of neurons to encode information transduced at the periphery into meaningful patterns of neuronal population activity. This transduction occurs in the presence of intrinsic neuronal noise. This is fortunate. The presence of noise allows more reliable encoding of the temporal structure present in the stimulus than would be possible in a noise-free environment. Simulations with a parallel model of signal processing at the auditory periphery have been used to explore the effects of noise and a neuronal population on the encoding of signal information. The results show that, for a given set of neuronal modeling parameters and stimulus amplitude, there is an optimal amount of noise for stimulus encoding with maximum fidelity.

Neurons/physiology↗

Effects of Deep Reductions in Energy Storage Costs on Highly Reliable Wind and Solar Electricity Systems.

We use 36 years (1980-2015) of hourly weather data over the contiguous United States (CONUS) to assess the impact of low-cost energy storage on highly reliable electricity systems that use only variable renewable energy (VRE; wind and solar photovoltaics). Even assuming perfect transmission of wind and solar generation aggregated over CONUS, energy storage costs would need to decrease several hundred-fold from current costs (to ~$1/kWh) in fully VRE electricity systems to yield highly reliable electricity without extensive curtailment of VRE generation. The role of energy storage changes from high-cost storage competing with curtailment to fill short-term gaps between VRE generation and hourly demand to near-free storage serving as seasonal storage for VRE resources. Energy storage faces "double penalties" in VRE/storage systems: with increasing capacity, (1) the additional storage is used less frequently and (2) hourly electricity costs would become less volatile, thus reducing price arbitrage opportunities for the additional storage.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Scaled CMOS Reliability and Considerations for Spacecraft Systems: Bottom-Up and Top-Down Perspective

New space missions will increasingly rely on more advanced technologies because of system requirements for higher performance, particularly in instruments and high-speed processing. Component-level reliability challenges with scaled CMOS in spacecraft systems from a bottom-up perspective have been presented. Fundamental Front-end and Back-end processing reliability issues with more aggressively scaled parts have been discussed. Effective thermal management from system-level to the componentlevel (top-down) is a key element in overall design of reliable systems. Thermal management in space systems must consider a wide range of issues, including thermal loading of many different components, and frequent temperature cycling of some systems. Both perspectives (top-down and bottom-up) play a large role in robust, reliable spacecraft system design.

Scaled CMOS↗

Spacecraft reliability/maintainability optimization.

Description of a procedure to develop a methodology to optimize man-serviced systems for reliability and maintainability. The spacecraft systems are analyzed using failure modes and effects analysis and maintenance analysis, component mean-time-between failure, duty cycle, type of redundancy, and cost information to develop parametric data on various time intervals. Included are crew time-to-repair, cost, weight, and volume effects of increasing subsystem reliability above the baseline. Results are presented for space systems using the existing data from a research and applications module. These results show the minimum cost of sustaining mission operations.

Sharmahd, J. N.↗