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At least 1,009 records · Page 56

Quantifying the Relative Impact of Model Microphysics Parameterizations and Scattering Models in Simulating Synthetic Radar and Microwave Radiometer Observations

Output from numerical weather models is often used to simulate observations from remote sensing instruments, for purposes ranging from data assimilation, synthetic retrievals of geophysical quantities, and optimization of observing systems. However, when hydrometeors are present, the level of detail provided by the weather model is generally insufficient to fully constrain the input to the radiative transfer model (RTM), and further assumptions must be made by the RTM user in order to produce synthetic observations. Using a hierarchy of models including cloud-resolving, double-moment, bin microphysical, and ice-habit predicting models, along with scattering properties from the OpenSSP, Atmospheric Radiative Transfer Simulator (ARTS) databases, as well as relatively simple geometries (e.g., cylindrical plates and columns), we demonstrate the spread in synthetic observation output and the extent to which it is reduced when microphysics is more strongly constrained by the model. As an intermediate step, an error budget for the RTM simulations was derived and from that we developed and will describe best practices for observation simulation (e.g., optimal number of hydrometeor size bins, truncation of the particle size distribution, angular resolution of scattering phase function). Some statistical comparisons with observations will also be presented.

Munchak, S. Joseph↗

Functional Fault Model Development Process to Support Design Analysis and Operational Assessment

A functional fault model (FFM) is an abstract representation of the failure space of a given system. As such, it simulates the propagation of failure effects along paths between the origin of the system failure modes and points within the system capable of observing the failure effects. As a result, FFMs may be used to diagnose the presence of failures in the modeled system. FFMs necessarily contain a significant amount of information about the design, operations, and failure modes and effects. One of the important benefits of FFMs is that they may be qualitative, rather than quantitative and, as a result, may be implemented early in the design process when there is more potential to positively impact the system design. FFMs may therefore be developed and matured throughout the monitored system's design process and may subsequently be used to provide real-time diagnostic assessments that support system operations. This paper provides an overview of a generalized NASA process that is being used to develop and apply FFMs. FFM technology has been evolving for more than 25 years. The FFM development process presented in this paper was refined during NASA's Ares I, Space Launch System, and Ground Systems Development and Operations programs (i.e., from about 2007 to the present). Process refinement took place as new modeling, analysis, and verification tools were created to enhance FFM capabilities. In this paper, standard elements of a model development process (i.e., knowledge acquisition, conceptual design, implementation & verification, and application) are described within the context of FFMs. Further, newer tools and analytical capabilities that may benefit the broader systems engineering process are identified and briefly described. The discussion is intended as a high-level guide for future FFM modelers.

Verification↗

A fault-tolerant intelligent robotic control system

This paper describes the concept, design, and features of a fault-tolerant intelligent robotic control system being developed for space and commercial applications that require high dependability. The comprehensive strategy integrates system level hardware/software fault tolerance with task level handling of uncertainties and unexpected events for robotic control. The underlying architecture for system level fault tolerance is the distributed recovery block which protects against application software, system software, hardware, and network failures. Task level fault tolerance provisions are implemented in a knowledge-based system which utilizes advanced automation techniques such as rule-based and model-based reasoning to monitor, diagnose, and recover from unexpected events. The two level design provides tolerance of two or more faults occurring serially at any level of command, control, sensing, or actuation. The potential benefits of such a fault tolerant robotic control system include: (1) a minimized potential for damage to humans, the work site, and the robot itself; (2) continuous operation with a minimum of uncommanded motion in the presence of failures; and (3) more reliable autonomous operation providing increased efficiency in the execution of robotic tasks and decreased demand on human operators for controlling and monitoring the robotic servicing routines.

Marzwell, Neville I.↗

Modeling, Analyzing, and Mitigating Dissonance Between Alerting Systems

Alerting systems are becoming pervasive in process operations, which may result in the potential for dissonance or conflict in information from different alerting systems that suggests different threat levels and/or actions to resolve hazards. Little is currently available to help in predicting or solving the dissonance problem. This thesis presents a methodology to model and analyze dissonance between alerting systems, providing both a theoretical foundation for understanding dissonance and a practical basis from which specific problems can be addressed. A state-space representation of multiple alerting system operation is generalized that can be tailored across a variety of applications. Based on the representation, two major causes of dissonance are identified: logic differences and sensor error. Additionally, several possible types of dissonance are identified. A mathematical analysis method is developed to identify the conditions for dissonance originating from logic differences. A probabilistic analysis methodology is developed to estimate the probability of dissonance originating from sensor error, and to compare the relative contribution to dissonance of sensor error against the contribution from logic differences. A hybrid model, which describes the dynamic behavior of the process with multiple alerting systems, is developed to identify dangerous dissonance space, from which the process can lead to disaster. Methodologies to avoid or mitigate dissonance are outlined. Two examples are used to demonstrate the application of the methodology. First, a conceptual In-Trail Spacing example is presented. The methodology is applied to identify the conditions for possible dissonance, to identify relative contribution of logic difference and sensor error, and to identify dangerous dissonance space. Several proposed mitigation methods are demonstrated in this example. In the second example, the methodology is applied to address the dissonance problem between two air traffic alert and avoidance systems: the existing Traffic Alert and Collision Avoidance System (TCAS) vs. the proposed Airborne Conflict Management system (ACM). Conditions on ACM resolution maneuvers are identified to avoid dynamic dissonance between TCAS and ACM. Also included in this report is an Appendix written by Lee Winder about recent and continuing work on alerting systems design. The application of Markov Decision Process (MDP) theory to complex alerting problems is discussed and illustrated with an abstract example system.

Song, Lixia↗

Vibration suppression in a large space structure

The Yale University Center for Systems Science and the NASA Johnson Space Center collaborated in a study of vibration suppression in a large space structure during the period January 1985 to August 1987. The research proposal submitted by the Center to NASA concerned disturbance isolation in flexible space structures. The general objective of the proposal was to create within the Center a critical mass of expertise on problems related to the dynamics and control of large flexible space structures. A specific objective was to formulate both passive and active control strategies for the disturbance isolation problem. Both objectives were achieved during the period of the contract. While an extensive literature exists on the control of flexible space structures, it is generally acknowledged that many important questions remain open at even a fundamental level. Hence, instead of studying grossly simplified models of complex structural systems, it was decided as a first step to confine attention to detailed and thorough analyses of simple structures.

Narendra, Kumpati S.↗

Plant Nutrition Influences Resistant Maize Defense Responses to the Fall Armyworm ( Spodoptera frugiperda )

Plants are often confronted by different groups of herbivores, which threaten their growth and reproduction. However, they are capable of mounting defenses against would-be attackers which may be heightened upon attack. Resistance to insects often varies among plant species, with different genotypes exhibiting unique patterns of chemical and physical defenses. Within this framework, plant access to nutrients may be critical for maximal functioning of resistance mechanisms and are likely to differ among plant genotypes. In this study, we aimed to test the hypothesis that access to nutrition would alter the expression of plant resistance to insects and alter insect performance in a manner consistent with fertilization regime. We used two maize (Zea mays) genotypes possessing different levels of resistance and the fall armyworm (Spodoptera frugiperda) as model systems. Plants were subjected to three fertilization regimes prior to assessing insect-mediated responses. Upon reaching V4 stage, maize plants were separated into two groups, one of which was infested with fall armyworm larvae to induce plant defenses. Plant tissue was collected and used in insect bioassays and to measure the expression of defense-related genes and proteins. Insect performance differed between the two plant genotypes substantially. For each genotype, fertilization altered larval performance, where lower fertilization rates hindered larval growth. Induction of plant defenses by prior herbivory substantially reduced naïve fall armyworm growth in both genotypes. The effects between fertilization and induced defenses were complex, with low fertilization reducing induced defenses in the resistant maize. Gene and protein expression patterns differed between the genotypes, with herbivory often increasing expression, but differing between fertilization levels. The soluble protein concentrations did not change across fertilization levels but was higher in the susceptible maize genotype. These results demonstrate the malleability of plant defenses and the cascading effects of plant nutrition on insect herbivory.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Solar and Storage Integration in the U.S. Southeast: Implications for Resource Adequacy

Resource adequacy concerns may be very different in electricity systems that have higher levels of solar and storage, requiring changes to existing planning models. This study explores a novel approach to evaluating resource adequacy under future scenarios with higher solar and storage in the Southeast U.S. It uses NREL’s Probabilistic Resource Adequacy Suite (PRAS), a collection of probabilistic resource adequacy modeling tools, and compares results when interacting PRAS and a portfolio planning tool with a more traditional modeling approach. The results suggest that traditional models perform reasonably well with lower levels of solar PV, but at higher levels of solar probabilistic tools better capture the changes in resource adequacy concerns—such as winter energy availability—associated with higher solar systems. This is the final study in the Preparing Southeast Markets for Reliable and Affordable Integration of Solar into Operations and Planning project. Two prior reports can be found at: Solar and Storage Integration in the Southeastern United States: Economics, Reliability, and Operations. https://emp.lbl.gov/publications/solar-and-storage-integration Solar and Wind Forecast Error Reserve Sharing in a Multi-Utility Region. https://eta-publications.lbl.gov/sites/default/files/2024-11/multiutility_fe_reserve_sharing_final.pdf

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Airport noise impact reduction through operations

The airport-noise levels and annoyance model (ALAMO) developed at NASA Langley Research Center is comprised of a system of computer programs which is capable of quantifying airport community noise impact in terms of noise level, population distribution, and human subjective response to noise. The ALAMO can be used to compare the noise impact of an airport's current operating scenario with the noise impact which would result from some proposed change in airport operations. The relative effectiveness of number of noise-impact reduction alternatives is assessed for a major midwest airport. Significant reductions in noise impact are predicted for certain noise abatement strategies while others are shown to result in relatively little noise relief.

Deloach, R.↗

Initialization of a mesoscale model with satellite derived temperature profiles

The abilities of rawinsonde data and Tiros-N satellite derived temperature profile data to depict mesoscale precipitation accumulation are evaluated. Four mesoscale simulations using combinations of temperature, low-level wind, and low-level wind initialization were performed with the limited area mesoscale prediction system (LAMPS) model. Comparisons of the simulations with operational LFM forecast accumulations reveal that the LAMPS model simulations provide a better depiction of the observed precipitation accumulation than the LFM forecasts, and the satellite temperature profiles produce better mesoscale precipitation accumulation forecasts than the rawinsonde temperature data.

Kalb, Michael W.↗

Quantitative Systems Modeling for Critical Infrastructure Predictions in Climate Change: A National Defense Framework

Any national defense is dependent on the efficacy of the available physical infrastructure. Whatever degrades infrastructure, structurally, physically, architecturally, or esthetically, is of interest to the nation. Climate change is now a major significant factor of interest impinging on national critical infrastructure. The devastating effects of climate change have increasing pervasiveness throughout the world. The impact on critical infrastructure is of particular interest to researchers. In consonance with ASCE-ASME's special issue on critical infrastructure protection and resilience, this paper presents a systems-modeling approach for critical infrastructure and predictions in relation to climate change agreements in COP26. The paper addresses high-level critical systems-based assessment of the social, legal, economic, and technical nuances impinging on the viability of COP26 agreements. The paper was written using a multinational collaboration approach. In conclusion, the specific focus of national defense is used as the backdrop for the methodology of the paper.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

2022 Peer Review Project Summary: Advanced Protection for Microgrids and DER in Secondary Networks and Meshed Distribution Systems

Although there are increasing numbers of distributed energy resources (DERs) and microgrids being deployed, current IEEE and utility standards generally strictly limit their interconnection inside secondary networks. Secondary networks are low-voltage meshed (non-radial) distribution systems that create redundancy in the path from the main grid source to each load. This redundancy provides a high level of immunity to disruptions in the distribution system, and thus extremely high reliability of electric power service. There are two main types of secondary networks, called grid and spot secondary networks, both of which are used worldwide. In the future, primary networks in distribution systems that might include looped or meshed distribution systems at the primary-voltage (mediumvoltage) level may also become common as a means for improving distribution reliability and resilience. The objective of this multiyear project is to increase the adoption of microgrids in secondary networks and meshed distribution systems by developing novel protection schemes that allow for safe reliable operation of DERs in secondary networks. We will address these challenges by working with the appropriate stakeholders of secondary network operators, protection vendors, and standards committee. The outcomes of this project include: a) development and/or demonstration of candidate methods for enabling protection of secondary networks containing high levels of DER; b) development of modeling and testing tools for protection systems designed for use with secondary networks including DERs; and c) development of new industrial partnerships to facilitate widespread results dissemination and eventual commercialization of results as appropriate.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Space Shuttle Main Engine Implications for the Abort-to-Orbit Off-the-Pad Study

In 2001, the Space Shuttle Main Engine (SSME) project office was contacted by the Space Shuttle Ascent Guidance, Navigation, and Control group to provide the engine perspective for an Abort-to-Orbit (ATO) study. The purpose of the AT0 Off-the-Pad study was to determine the feasibility of eliminating the Return to Launch Site and Transatlantic abort modes by using a five-segment solid rocket booster and throttling the remaining SSMEs to a higher power level. This would enable all abort modes to be Abort-to-Orbit. The SSME project office at Marshall Space Flight Center collaborated with MSFC's Space Transportation Directorate and Rocketdyne Propulsion and Power to provide the AT0 Off-the-Pad study with the analysis required. Power levels at 109%, 1 11% and 1 13% of rated power level were studied as well as mixture ratio decreases down to 5.85. SSME was to evaluate and define the technical and programmatic impacts to certify the SSME to these abort power levels. The SSME systems analysis group performed a steady state analysis using the SSME power balance model to determine if there were any technical issues associated with higher power level, low mixture ratio operation. Based on each power level/mixture ratio combination, an engine certification plan was created and a preliminary probabilistic risk assessment was performed. The results showed favorable results for higher power 1evel/lower mixture ratio SSME operation. In nearly all performance and redline parameters, the traded engine operation was encompassed by nominal engine performance of a prior engine configuration.

Schoffstoll, Dayna L.↗

A Comparison of Flow-Through Versus Non-Flow-Through Proton Exchange Membrane Fuel Cell Systems for NASA's Exploration Missions

As part of the Exploration Technology Development Program (ETDP) under the auspices of the Exploration Systems Mission Directorate (ESMD), NASA is developing both primary fuel cell power systems and regenerative fuel cell (RFC) energy storage systems within the fuel cell portion of the Energy Storage Project. This effort is being led by the NASA Glenn Research Center (GRC) in partnership with the NASA Johnson Space Center (JSC), Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL), NASA Kennedy Space Center (KSC), and industrial partners. The development goals are to improve fuel cell and electrolysis stack electrical performance, reduce system mass, volume, and parasitic power requirements, and increase system life and reliability. A major focus of this effort has been the parallel development of both flow-through and non-flow-through proton exchange membrane (PEM) primary fuel cell power systems. The plan has been, at the appropriate time, to select a single primary fuel cell technology for eventual flight hardware development. Ideally, that appropriate time would occur after both technologies have achieved a technology readiness level (TRL) of six, which represents an engineering model fidelity PEM fuel cell system being successfully tested in a relevant environment. Budget constraints in fiscal year 2009 and beyond have prevented NASA from continuing to pursue the parallel development of both primary fuel cell options. Because very limited data exists for either system, a toplevel, qualitative assessment based on engineering judgement was performed expeditiously to provide guidance for a selection. At that time, the non-flow-through technology was selected for continued development because of potentially major advantages in terms of weight, volume, parasitic power, reliability, and life. This author believes that the advantages are significant enough, and the potential benefits great enough, to offset the higher state of technology readiness of flow-through technology. This paper summarizes the technical considerations which helped form the engineering judgement that led to the final decision.

Hoberecht, Mark A.↗

Estimates of ground-level mercury vapor concentrations from postulated launch-pad accidents of NASA space transportation systems

NASA has considered the use of mercury ion bombardment engines as extra-terrestrial propulsion systems where low thrust must be provided for long periods of time. However, the mercury fuel in these engines may pose a hazard if it is accidentally released to the troposphere. A description is presented of diffusion-model estimates of maximum 10-minute and 24-hour ground-level concentrations that could result from the accidental release of mercury from Titan/Centaur and Space Shuttle/Tug transportation systems. Three types of accidental release modes have been considered in the concentration calculations. For all three modes, the diffusion-model calculations were made for a variety of meteorological conditions in an effort to obtain estimates of the maximum credible concentrations under 'worst-case' conditions.

Dumbauld, R. K.↗

Continuous-time look-ahead flexible ramp scheduling in real-time operation

This paper develops a novel continuous-time look-ahead optimization model for co-optimizing balancing energy and flexible ramp products in real-time power systems operation. In addition, a continuous-time day-ahead operation model is developed to commit and schedule an adequate subset of generating units for providing balancing energy and ramping requirements in real-time operation. The up and down flexible ramp products are defined as continuous-time decision trajectories that continuously supply the real-time up and down ramping requirements of the system. The deliverability of flexible ramp products is secured through reserving the respective power requirements in generation capacity constraints of generating units. A function space solution method is proposed to reduce the dimensionality of day-ahead and real-time models through projecting them into finite-dimensional function spaces spanned by Bernstein polynomials, where the real-time operation decisions are modeled with a higher accuracy level than day-ahead decisions. Simulations are conducted on the IEEE-RTS system using CAISO load data, and the numerical results showcase the effectiveness of the proposed model in supplying the energy and flexible ramp requirements and avoiding ramping scarcity in the system, while reducing the operation costs.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

A Precision Deployable Aperture System Facility

This paper describes an overview of the precision environment test enclosure for testing the structures, a metrology system for absolute measurement at the micron level and the formulation of a modeling methodology that integrates the measurement of aperture components or subsystems w1th models for direct validation.

modeling↗

Gas-Cooled High-Temperature Pebble-Bed Reactor Reference Plant Model Updates

This work presents the latest improvements to, and investigations performed with, the pebble-bed high-temperature gas-cooled reactor (PB-HTGR) reference plant models for the United States Nuclear Regulatory Commission. These models serve as the foundation for the future development of detailed design evaluation models based on license applications. The reference plant models have been developed with the Comprehensive Reactor Analysis Bundle, or BlueCRAB, which is the code suite proposed for non-light-water reactor systems safety analysis. It incorporates various simulation tools developed by the Nuclear Energy Advanced Modeling and Simulation program, including the Griffin code for reactor physics, the Pronghorn and SAM codes for core thermal fluids, the BISON code for solid conduction and fuel performance, and the SAM code for system analysis. The primary objective of the work that was performed was to assess BlueCRAB’s level of readiness for modeling a PB-HTGR. To do so, we first developed numerical models in BlueCRAB that include the key physics for this technology to ensure an adequate level of fidelity for modeling PB-HTGR core performance and for performing multiphysics simulations for equilibrium core conditions and different accident scenarios. Then we simulated transient scenarios, including depressurized and pressurized loss of forced cooling accidents, over-cooling, and control rod withdrawal events with delayed and prompt supercritical reactivity insertions. The analysis in this report includes comparisons of the 2D thermal fluid porous media models in Pronghorn and SAM, and comparisons of coupled SAM/Griffin/SAM and coupled Pronghorn/Griffin for depressurized and pressurized loss of forced cooling, over-cooling, and control rod withdrawal events. In addition, we compare 3D, 2D, and 0D/PKE neutronic models for the two control rod withdrawal scenarios with coupled Pronghorn/Griffin. The comparisons show that the BlueCRAB models lead to physically intuitive solutions for the scenarios examined. The changes in the various scalar and vector fields, such as neutron flux, power, temperature, density, pressure, and velocity, are within the expected ranges, and their distributions can be explained by the system response of the transients and the geometric and material variations. Several comparisons suggest that the porous media models in Pronghorn and SAM can lead to similar solutions, even though they are based on different methodologies. This work further highlights the need for flexible tools with various levels of fidelity to cover the breadth and depth of needs that may arise in future technical evaluations of the PB-HTGR. We believe that the BlueCRAB capabilities will be a significant asset for confirmatory analyses in order to resolve important safety questions.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Nitrogen and phosphorus cycling in an ombrotrophic peatland: a benchmark for assessing change

Aims Slow decomposition and isolation from groundwater mean that ombrotrophic peatlands store a large amount of soil carbon (C) but have low availability of nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P). To better understand the role these limiting nutrients play in determining the C balance of peatland ecosystems, we compile comprehensive N and P budgets for a forested bog in northern Minnesota, USA. Methods N and P within plants, soils, and water are quantified based on field measurements. The resulting empirical dataset are then compared to modern-day, site-level simulations from the peatland land surface version of the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (ELM-SPRUCE).

Salmon, Verity G.↗