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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.
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ExaGO is a high-performance computing power systems modeling suite providing models for different power flow analyses. It supports forward AC power flow, multiperiod AC and DC optimal power flow analyses, contingency analysis, as well as stochastic optimal power flow analysis. ExaGO can use HiOp and Ipopt optimization engines. It supports Matpower and PSS/E input file formats. ExaGO v2 includes code from ExaGO 1.6.0.
CABRI is an experimental reactor to study the fuel behavior during reactivity injection transients. These transients being highly multiphysics, the development of suitable modeling and simulation tools to simulate them is important for the optimization of the tests and the control of the experimental conditions. This paper focuses on the development of an APOLLO3 deterministic core calculation tool dedicated to the CABRI transient analysis. It represents the first stage of the incremental process for the implementation of a multiphysics time-dependent modeling of the CABRI transient. The neutron calculation scheme is based on a classical two-step approach. The first step consists of a 281-energy group calculation flux with the TDT-MOC (Method Of Characteristics) solver for cross-section space and energy (23 groups) collapsing for the CABRI different assembly clusters. The bias on a 2D core neutron calculation due to the self-shielding calculation and collapsing on a restricted pattern are investigated thanks to a comparison with a direct full 2D calculation on a quarter of core. The second step relies on a pin-resolved transport 3D transport core calculation with the SN solver MINARET. A progressive numerical validation process is followed to quantify the calculation biases on reactivity and reaction rates at each step using reference calculations with the stochastic code TRIPOLI4. The next development stage toward a multiphysics scheme will be the implementation of the 3D-kinetics equation resolution and the coupling with a core thermal-hydraulics model. (authors)
Estimation of daily suspended sediment concentration (SSC) is required for water resources and environment management. In this paper, a copula-based stochastic method was proposed for daily SSC simulation. Here, the multivariate copula function, constructed based on a bivariate copula and two bivariate conditional probability distributions, was used to model the temporal and cross dependence structures in daily SSCs. Then, the daily SSCs were generated by sampling from the multivariate conditional distribution. As a result, synthetic long-term SSCs data beyond the limited observation period can be provided for water resources managers, which plays a critical role in accurately estimating frequency and magnitude of extreme SSCs events. The proposed method was under rigorous examination by applying to a case study at Pingshan station in the Jinsha River Basin, China. Results showed that the generated daily SSC sequences not only had a high degree of accuracy in preserving the statistical characteristics of the daily SSC observations, but also captured both the temporal correlation and the cross-correlation between the daily streamflow and daily SSC. Specifically, the average daily relative error values corresponding to mean, standard deviation, skewness, lag-1 temporal correlation, and cross correlation were 0.87%, 4.24%, 7.52%, 0.51% and 2.02%, respectively. The multivariate copula framework proposed here can accurately and efficiently generate long-term daily SSC data for water resources management such as frequency analysis and risk assessment of extreme SSC events.
Background: A material’s microstructure drives its material performance. Contemporary crystal plasticity experiments compare full-field strain measurements of polycrystal specimens to models. Because each specimen is unique, it is impossible to know which features of the observed deformation are deterministic vs statistical; thus, differences between model and experiment may or may not be significant. Objective: This paper introduces the invention of microstructure clones. Microstructure clones are 2D oligocrystal specimens that have nearly identical microstructures to remedy the aforementioned experimental limitations. Having specimens with nearly identical microstructures will allow for multiple destructive tests of a microstructure (either as repeats or intentionally different experiments), an ability to “see the future” by providing insight into how a specimen will deform, variability quantification, and experimental investigations of response to small microstructural changes. Methods: This work introduces microstructure clones. Repeatability of these clones is demonstrated in tensile bars of pure nickel. Local strain measurements from digital image correlation are compared between clone specimens and compared to results from a crystal plasticity finite element model. Results: Two sets of microstructure clones were tested in this study and displayed very consistent deformation responses within each clone set. Small observed differences in deformation invite investigation into microstructure stochasticity and the effect of small microstructural and loading differences. Conclusions: Microstructure clones represent a significant shift in understanding structure–property relationships. This work reshapes experimental crystal plasticity to allow for experiments that control for specific variables, quantification of microstructural stochasticity (and other sources of stochasticity), and opportunities for replicating experiments.
Here we propose a high dimensional Bayesian inference framework for learning heterogeneous dynamics of a COVID-19 model, with a specific application to the dynamics and severity of COVID-19 inside and outside long-term care (LTC) facilities. We develop a heterogeneous compartmental model that accounts for the heterogeneity of the time-varying spread and severity of COVID-19 inside and outside LTC facilities, which is characterized by time-dependent stochastic processes and time-independent parameters in ~ 1500 dimensions after discretization. To infer these parameters, we use reported data on the number of confirmed, hospitalized, and deceased cases with suitable post-processing in both a deterministic inversion approach with appropriate regularization as a first step, followed by Bayesian inversion with proper prior distributions. To address the curse of dimensionality and the ill-posedness of the high-dimensional inference problem, we propose use of a dimension-independent projected Stein variational gradient descent method, and demonstrate the intrinsic low-dimensionality of the inverse problem. We present inference results with quantified uncertainties for both New Jersey and Texas, which experienced different epidemic phases and patterns. Moreover, we also present forecasting and validation results based on the empirical posterior samples of our inference for the future trajectory of COVID-19.
In this work we introduce a manifold learning-based method for uncertainty quantification (UQ) in systems describing complex spatiotemporal processes. Our first objective is to identify the embedding of a set of high-dimensional data representing quantities of interest of the computational or analytical model. For this purpose, we employ Grassmannian diffusion maps, a two-step nonlinear dimension reduction technique which allows us to reduce the dimensionality of the data and identify meaningful geometric descriptions in a parsimonious and inexpensive manner. Polynomial chaos expansion is then used to construct a mapping between the stochastic input parameters and the diffusion coordinates of the reduced space. An adaptive clustering technique is proposed to identify an optimal number of clusters of points in the latent space. The similarity of points allows us to construct a number of geometric harmonic emulators which are finally utilized as a set of inexpensive pretrained models to perform an inverse map of realizations of latent features to the ambient space and thus perform accurate out-of-sample predictions. Thus, the proposed method acts as an encoder-decoder system which is able to automatically handle very high-dimensional data while simultaneously operating successfully in the small-data regime. The method is demonstrated on two benchmark problems and on a system of advection-diffusion-reaction equations which model a first-order chemical reaction between two species. In all test cases, the proposed method is able to achieve highly accurate approximations which ultimately lead to the significant acceleration of UQ tasks.
According to recent lore, it is difficult to explain the evidence for a stochastic gravitational wave background obtained by pulsar timing arrays with supercooled first-order phase transitions (FOPTs). We demonstrate that supercooled FOPTs in dark U(1) models with a conformal dark sector easily explain the nHz signal at NANOGrav.
Mesoscale-to-microscale coupling is an important tool for conducting turbulence-resolving multiscale simulations of realistic atmospheric flows, which are crucial for applications ranging from wind energy to wildfire spread studies. Different techniques are used to facilitate the development of realistic turbulence in the large-eddy simulation (LES) domain while minimizing computational cost. Here, we explore the impact of a simple and computationally efficient Stochastic Cell Perturbation method using momentum perturbation (SCPM-M) to accelerate turbulence generation in boundary-coupled LES simulations using the Weather Research and Forecasting model. We simulate a convective boundary layer (CBL) to characterize the production and dissipation of turbulent kinetic energy (TKE) and the variation of TKE budget terms. Furthermore, we evaluate the impact of applying momentum perturbations of three magnitudes below, up to, and above the CBL on the TKE budget terms. Momentum perturbations greatly reduce the fetch associated with turbulence generation. When applied to half the vertical extent of the boundary layer, momentum perturbations produce an adequate amount of turbulence. However, when applied above the CBL, additional structures are generated at the top of the CBL, near the inversion layer. The magnitudes of the TKE budgets produced by SCPM-M when applied at varying heights and with different perturbation amplitudes are always higher near the surface and inversion layer than those produced by No-SCPM, as are their contributions to the TKE. This study provides a better understanding of how SCPM-M reduces computational costs and how different budget terms contribute to TKE in a boundary-coupled LES simulation.
Cosmic inflation provides a compelling framework for explaining several observed features of our Universe, but its viability depends on an efficient reheating phase that converts the inflaton’s energy into Standard Model particles. This conversion often proceeds through nonperturbative mechanisms such as parametric resonance, which is described by Hill’s equation. In this work, we investigate how stochastic fluctuations in the parameters of Hill’s equation can influence particle production during reheating. We show that such fluctuations can arise from couplings to light scalar fields and can significantly alter the stability bands in the resonance structure, thereby enhancing the growth of fluctuations and broadening the region of efficient energy transfer. Using random matrix theory and stochastic differential equations, we decompose the particle growth rate into deterministic and noise-induced components and demonstrate analytically and numerically that even modest noise leads to substantial particle production in otherwise stable regimes. Furthermore, these results suggest that stochastic effects can robustly enhance the efficacy of reheating across a wide swath of parameter space, with implications for early Universe cosmology, UV completions involving multiple scalar fields, and the resolution of the cosmological moduli problem.
Los Alamos National Laboratory is a nuclear weapons laboratory supporting our nation's defense. In support of the mission is a high energy-density physics program in which we design and execute experiments to study radiation-hydrodynamics phenomena and improve the predictive capability of our large-scale multi-physics software codes on our supercomputers. The Radflow Project is maturing a unique spectroscopic measurement that yields a spatially dependent supersonic radiation wavefront profile. The spectroscopic measurement is much more constraining than the typically used radiography, which measures the density changes due to the shock as the radiation wave goes subsonic. Recently, the spectroscopic measurement has been applied to advanced targets with a detailed heterogeneity representing a single realization of a stochastic medium. The Radflow Project also conducts opacity experiments to explain the current conundrum of the experimental iron opacity differing from theory, which is important in modeling the sun. More than that, though, we need to be able to answer these science questions and be able to validate our theory and codes.
Here we present a Lindblad master equation that approximates the Redfield equation, a well known master equation derived from first principles, without significantly compromising the range of applicability of the Redfield equation. Instead of full-scale coarse-graining, this approximation only truncates terms in the Redfield equation that average out over a time-scale typical of the quantum system. The first step in this approximation is to properly renormalize the system Hamiltonian, to symmetrize the gains and losses of the state due to the environmental coupling. In the second step, we swap out an arithmetic mean of the spectral density with a geometric one, in these gains and losses, thereby restoring complete positivity. This completely positive approximation, GAME (geometric-arithmetic master equation), is adaptable between its time-independent, time-dependent, and Floquet form. In the exactly solvable, three-level, Jaynes-Cummings model, we find that the error of the approximate state is almost an order of magnitude lower than that obtained by solving the coarse-grained stochastic master equation. As a test-bed, we use a ferromagnetic Heisenberg spin-chain with long-range dipole-dipole coupling between up to 25-spins, and study the differences between various master equations. We find that GAME has the highest accuracy per computational resource.
Distinguishing biotic compounds from abiotic ones is important in resource geology, biogeochemistry, and the search for life in the universe. Stable isotopes have traditionally been used to discriminate the origins of organic materials, with particular focus on hydrocarbons. However, despite extensive efforts, unequivocal distinction of abiotic hydrocarbons remains challenging. Recent development of clumped-isotope analysis provides more robust information because it is independent of the stable isotopic composition of the starting material. Here, we report data from a 13 C- 13 C clumped-isotope analysis of ethane and demonstrate that the abiotically-synthesized ethane shows distinctively low 13 C- 13 C abundances compared to thermogenic ethane. A collision frequency model predicts the observed low 13 C- 13 C abundances (anti-clumping) in ethane produced from methyl radical recombination. In contrast, thermogenic ethane presumably exhibits near stochastic 13 C- 13 C distribution inherited from the biological precursor, which undergoes C-C bond cleavage/recombination during metabolism. Further, we find an exceptionally high 13 C- 13 C signature in ethane remaining after microbial oxidation. In summary, the approach distinguishes between thermogenic, microbially altered, and abiotic hydrocarbons. The 13 C- 13 C signature can provide an important step forward for discrimination of the origin of organic molecules on Earth and in extra-terrestrial environments.
Variational quantum eigensolvers are touted as a near-term algorithm capable of impacting many applications. However, the potential has not yet been realized, with few claims of quantum advantage and high resource estimates, especially due to the need for optimization in the presence of noise. Finding algorithms and methods to improve convergence is important to accelerate the capabilities of near-term hardware for VQE or more broad applications of hybrid methods in which optimization is required. To this goal, we look to use modern approaches developed in circuit simulations and stochastic classical optimization, which can be combined to form a surrogate optimization approach to quantum circuits. Using an approximate (classical CPU/GPU) state vector simulator as a surrogate model, we efficiently calculate an approximate Hessian, passed as an input for a quantum processing unit or exact circuit simulator. This method will lend itself well to parallelization across quantum processing units. We demonstrate the capabilities of such an approach with and without sampling noise and a proof-of-principle demonstration on a quantum processing unit utilizing 40 qubits.
ABSTRACT Jetted astrophysical phenomena with black hole engines, including binary mergers, jetted tidal disruption events, and X-ray binaries, require a large-scale vertical magnetic field for efficient jet formation. However, a dynamo mechanism that could generate these crucial large-scale magnetic fields has not been identified and characterized. We have employed three-dimensional global general relativistic magnetohydrodynamical simulations of accretion discs to quantify, for the first time, a dynamo mechanism that generates large-scale magnetic fields. This dynamo mechanism primarily arises from the non-linear evolution of the magnetorotational instability (MRI). In this mechanism, large non-axisymmetric MRI-amplified shearing wave modes, mediated by the axisymmetric azimuthal magnetic field, generate and sustain the large-scale vertical magnetic field through their non-linear interactions. We identify the advection of magnetic loops as a crucial feature, transporting the large-scale vertical magnetic field from the outer regions to the inner regions of the accretion disc. This leads to a larger characteristic size of the, now advected, magnetic field when compared to the local disc height. We characterize the complete dynamo mechanism with two time-scales: one for the local magnetic field generation, $t_{\rm gen}$, and one for the large-scale scale advection, $t_{\rm adv}$. Whereas the dynamo we describe is non-linear, we explore the potential of linear mean field models to replicate its core features. Our findings indicate that traditional $\alpha$-dynamo models, often computed in stratified shearing box simulations, are inadequate and that the effective large-scale dynamics is better described by the shear current effects or stochastic $\alpha$-dynamos.
We explore a simple and predictive dark matter scenario involving a complex scalar field, ϕ , coupled to the Higgs portal with no additional field content. In the UV, the field possesses a global U ( 1 ) symmetry which is broken by mass terms and Higgs portal interactions. In the mass basis, the complex field splits into a pair of real scalars with a small mass splitting (in analogy to pseudo-Dirac fermions), such that the Higgs portal acquires both diagonal and off-diagonal terms with respect to these eigenstates. In the parameter space where the off-diagonal interaction predominates, this scenario is safe from direct detection constraints. Moreover, this model provides a viable explanation for the longstanding Galactic Center γ -ray excess. Additionally, this model influences the Higgs potential in a way that could facilitate a strong first-order electroweak phase transition in the early Universe, potentially leading to a stochastic gravitational wave background that could fall within the reach of upcoming space-based detectors.
Focal Area: This white paper responds to Focal area III by exploring data fusion, learning and explainable AI methods in characterizing hydrological extremes and interconnections. It also addresses Focal area II by using probabilistic AI and ensemble ML for predicting extremes and compound extremes. Science Challenge: A key question associated with the integrated water (or hydrological) cycle grand challenge in the Earth and Environmental Systems Sciences Division (EESSD) strategic plan, is how the frequency and intensity of hydrological events will change. Prediction of the tail behavior (extremes) of the hydrological cycle is especially challenging, because of their stochasticity and low probability. These extreme events and their compound impacts have significant societal and economic consequences. It is anticipated for the next-generation Earth System models (ESMs), that model predictability of the water cycle will improve with increased resolution (e.g., regionally refined E3SM), advanced software and computational architectures, and improved model physics based on the data from ARM measurements and high-fidelity models. However, the challenges for predictability of low-probability high-impact extreme events will unlikely be alleviated with conventional modeling and data-driven approaches, as ESMs are calibrated largely for capturing the high-frequency mean climate states. Recent AI and ML applications have shown great potential in quantifying well-defined climate extremes (e.g., supervised learning of tropical cyclones/atmospheric rivers by ClimateNet1) but few efforts are dedicated to compound events, extreme drivers and uncertainty estimation. We envision the opportunity to develop and apply ML and interpretable AI methods extended on the existing efforts, specifically, for: (1) identification of compound extremes, (2) diagnosing drivers of extremes, (3) bias correction in extreme predictions and (4) probabilistic modeling of extremes.
A stochastic energetics framework is applied to examine how periodically shifting the frequency of a time-dependent oscillating temperature gradient affects heat transport in a nanoscale molecular model. We specifically examine the effects that frequency switching, i.e., instantaneously changing the oscillation frequency of the temperature gradient, has on the shape of the heat transport hysteresis curves generated by a particle connected to two thermal baths, each with a temperature that is oscillating in time. Analytical expressions are derived for the energy fluxes in/out of the system and the baths, with excellent agreement observed between the analytical expressions and the results from nonequilibrium molecular dynamics simulations. We find that the shape of the heat transport hysteresis curves can be significantly altered by shifting the frequency between fast and slow oscillation regimes. We also observe the emergence of features in the hysteresis curves such as pinched loops and complex multi-loop patterns due to the frequency shifting. The presented results have implications in the design of thermal neuromorphic devices such as thermal memristors and thermal memcapacitors.
Several short-lived radionuclides (SLRs) are know to have existed in the early solar system (ESS). These species, which typically decay with half-lives of the order of a few million years, can be used to probe the timescales of events preceding the birth of the Sun. We investigate the ESS origin of 53 Mn, produced by core-collapse supernovae (CCSNe) and Type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia), and 60 Fe, produced exclusively by CCSNe. We model the evolution of the radioactive-to-stable abundance ratios of these SLRs with a Galactic chemical evolution (GCE) framework accounting for different SN yields, SN Ia delay times, and other Galactic features (K). A further set of models is calculated assuming that SNe Ia did not contribute any 53 Mn to the ESS. The predicted ratios are compared to meteoritic ratios to derive a distribution of solar isolation times that includes uncertainties due to stochastic chemical enrichment and measurements of the ESS values. The isolation times are then compared to those of 107 Pd and 182 Hf calculated in previous work. A self-consistent solution can be found within the current uncertainties, especially when using the GCE setups with K = 1.6 and 2.3, although the maximum likelihood for the 60 Fe distribution is typically ∼4–5 Myr shorter than for 53 Mn. The predicted 60 Fe/ 53 Mn ratio, instead, is completely inconsistent with the ESS value; this could be resolved using a larger fraction of faint CCSNe than usually considered in GCE models.