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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS1989

A parameterization of eddy transfer coefficients for two-level seasonal statistical dynamical zonally averaged models

This paper examines a parameterization of a quasi-geostrophic eddy transport that takes into account the time variation of eddy transfer coefficients according to Green's (1970) theory. It was found that, in the original eddy transfer relationship of Green, connecting the integral of the northward eddy entropy flux through midlatitudes with the second power of the difference in 500-mb entropy across the region of baroclinic activity, a value of 4 for the exponent is obtained when the temperature gradients at 500 mb are used. When the gradients at 1000 mb are used, an exponent of 1.5 is obtained. The differences in the powers in the eddy transfer relation were explored in a two-level zonally averaged model. It was found that an appropriate choice of power may be of special importance if the model is devised to simulate the seasonal climate cycle or to test astronomical changes inducing different seasonalities.

Neeman, Binyamin U.↗
NASA NTRS1997

Stochastic-Dynamical Modeling of Space Time Rainfall

The focus of this research work is the elucidation of the physical origins of the observed extreme-rainfall variability over tropical oceans. The quantitative results of this work may be used to establish links between deterministic models of the mesoscale and synoptic scale with statistical descriptions of the temporal variability of local tropical oceanic rainfall. In addition, they may be used to quantify the influence of measurement error in large-scale forcing and cloud scale observations on the accuracy of local rainfall variability inferences, important for hydrologic studies. A simple statistical-dynamical model, suitable for use in repetitive Monte Carlo experiments, is formulated as a diagnostic tool for this purpose. Stochastic processes with temporal structure and parameters estimated from observed large-scale data represent large-scale forcing.

Georgankakos, Konstantine P.↗
NASA NTRS2001

Error Estimation of An Ensemble Statistical Seasonal Precipitation Prediction Model

This NASA Technical Memorandum describes an optimal ensemble canonical correlation forecasting model for seasonal precipitation. Each individual forecast is based on the canonical correlation analysis (CCA) in the spectral spaces whose bases are empirical orthogonal functions (EOF). The optimal weights in the ensemble forecasting crucially depend on the mean square error of each individual forecast. An estimate of the mean square error of a CCA prediction is made also using the spectral method. The error is decomposed onto EOFs of the predictand and decreases linearly according to the correlation between the predictor and predictand. Since new CCA scheme is derived for continuous fields of predictor and predictand, an area-factor is automatically included. Thus our model is an improvement of the spectral CCA scheme of Barnett and Preisendorfer. The improvements include (1) the use of area-factor, (2) the estimation of prediction error, and (3) the optimal ensemble of multiple forecasts. The new CCA model is applied to the seasonal forecasting of the United States (US) precipitation field. The predictor is the sea surface temperature (SST). The US Climate Prediction Center's reconstructed SST is used as the predictor's historical data. The US National Center for Environmental Prediction's optimally interpolated precipitation (1951-2000) is used as the predictand's historical data. Our forecast experiments show that the new ensemble canonical correlation scheme renders a reasonable forecasting skill. For example, when using September-October-November SST to predict the next season December-January-February precipitation, the spatial pattern correlation between the observed and predicted are positive in 46 years among the 50 years of experiments. The positive correlations are close to or greater than 0.4 in 29 years, which indicates excellent performance of the forecasting model. The forecasting skill can be further enhanced when several predictors are used.

Shen, Samuel S. P.↗
NASA NTRS2002

The spectral correlation of functional clouds: a statistical test for theoretical models

We compute the spectral correlation function (SCF) of CO J=1-0 maps of moleculary cloud complexes. The SCF is a power law over approximately an order of magnitude in spatial separation in every map. The power law slope of the SCF, its normalization, and the spectral line width averaged over the whole map, are computed for all the observational maps.

turbulence kinematics↗
NASA NTRS2017

Millimeter Wave Systems for Airports and Short-Range Aviation Communications: A Survey of the Current Channel Models at mmWave Frequencies

Millimeter-wave (mmWave) communications will play a key role in enhancing the throughput, reliability, and security of next generation wireless networks. These advancements are achieved through the large bandwidth available in this band and through the use of highly directional links that will be used to overcome the large pathloss at these frequencies. Although the terrestrial application of mmWave systems is advancing at a rapid pace, the use of mmWave communication systems in aviation systems or airports is still in its infancy. This can be attributed to the challenges related to radio technology and lack of development, and characterization of mmWave wireless channels for the aviation field and the airport environment. Consequently, one of our goals is to develop methodologies that support mmWave air to ground links, and various links at airports, by applying new localization schemes that allow for application of highly directional links that can be deployed over longer distances despite the high path loss at mmWave frequencies. However, a very thorough understanding of the mmWave channel models are needed to enable such new applications. To this end, in this paper, we present a survey of the current channel models in the mmWave band. The 3-dimensional statistical channel model is also reviewed and its parameters and typical characteristics for this model are identified and computed through simulation for the Boise metropolitan area.

air traffic management↗
NASA NTRS2019

A Global Model for Estimating Atmospheric Phase Scintillation Statistics

Since 2007, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) has been collecting atmospheric phase turbulence data from various NASA ground stations throughout the world. The goal of these measurement campaigns has been to generate statistics to characterize the local site turbulence conditions and their impact on widely distributed ground based antenna arrays. This is of critical importance for the situation of uplink arraying, in which a priori knowledge of the fast varying turbulent conditions of water vapor in the troposphere may not be known, and will impact the power combining efficiency of ground based transmitting arrays. Therefore, the design of these type of systems will be dependent on the local climatology of the particular ground station site. Based on the 30+ station years of data collected characterizing atmospheric phase scintillation statistics at various sites, a global model is presented which attempts to predict the average phase statistics of a generic site based on local surface weather data, such as surface pressure, temperature, relative humidity, wind speed, and median wind direction. A model is proposed and based on a standard log power distribution similar to amplitude scintillation models trained on the existing data sets and shows reasonable accuracy against existing data sets.

propagation↗
DOE OSTI2021

Statistically-informed deep learning for gravitational wave parameter estimation

We introduce deep learning models to estimate the masses of the binary components of black hole mergers, $(m_1,m_2)$, and three astrophysical properties of the post-merger compact remnant, namely, the final spin, $a_\mathrm f$, and the frequency and damping time of the ringdown oscillations of the fundamental $\ell = m = 2$ bar mode, $(\omega_\mathrm R, \omega_\mathrm I)$. Our neural networks combine a modified WaveNet architecture with contrastive learning and normalizing flow. We validate these models against a Gaussian conjugate prior family whose posterior distribution is described by a closed analytical expression. Upon confirming that our models produce statistically consistent results, we used them to estimate the astrophysical parameters $(m_1,m_2, a_\mathrm f, \omega_\mathrm R, \omega_\mathrm I)$ of five binary black holes: GW150914, GW170104, GW170814, GW190521 and GW190630. We use PyCBC Inference to directly compare traditional Bayesian methodologies for parameter estimation with our deep learning based posterior distributions. Our results show that our neural network models predict posterior distributions that encode physical correlations, and that our data-driven median results and 90% confidence intervals are similar to those produced with gravitational wave Bayesian analyses. This methodology requires a single V100 NVIDIA GPU to produce median values and posterior distributions within two milliseconds for each event. Furthermore, this neural network, and a tutorial for its use, are available at the Data and Learning Hub for Science.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
NASA NTRS1978

Five micron limb-darkening and the structure of the Jovian atmosphere

A combined radiative, dynamical, and chemical model of the Jovian atmosphere is presented which reproduces the observed IR limb-darkening curves for several regions on the disk of Jupiter. Two approaches are used to perform the inversion required for determination of the source function, and a power-series-expansion model is examined, along with a convective-equilibrium model, cloud and intermediate-zone models, and a thin-shell model. The statistical methods used in the analysis are outlined, and model fits to the observations are discussed. The chemistry of phase transitions in the hot spots of Jupiter's equatorial belt is briefly investigated.

Newman, W. I.↗
DOE OSTI2025

Searches for New Physics With Muon Conversion at Fermilab and Triboson Production at the LHC

We report on several efforts to search for physics beyond the standard model of particle physics at broad energy scales. The Mu2e experiment at Fermilab will search for charged lepton flavor violation via the muon to electron conversion process, which is suppressed in the Standard Model. Mu2e will be operated at a low energy, yet can probe New Physics at very high mass scales (O(1e3 - 1e4 ) TeV). At high energies, the CMS experiment at the CERN LHC continues to deliver an impressive suite of Standard Model measurements and limits on a variety of New Physics signatures. Mu2e is under construction and slated to collect its first physics data in the coming years. This thesis describes work done during the construction phase of Mu2e and focuses on two critical areas: magnetic field modeling and statistical analysis. We describe a novel method for field modeling which we validate using a simulated dataset representing the expected magnetic field in the Detector Solenoid. This method blends a standard least-squares fitting technique that utilizes physically motivated analytical model functions with a novel physics informed network that is constructed to obey Maxwell’s equations. We show the technique can model the field with an accuracy of 10−7 despite the presence of injected noise in the pseudo-measurements at the 10−5 level. We then present preliminary results of the calibration of 3D Hall probes at the sub-10−4 level. These probes will be used to directly measure the Mu2e Detector Solenoid magnetic field on a sparse grid; these measurements serve as the input to the field model fitting. Finally, we describe the first implementation of both an unbinned shape analysis and a Bayesian interpretation applied to Mu2e pseudo-data. Up to 20% tighter limits can be set by the shape analysis compared to a standard cut & count analysis. The AlCap experiment collected data at PSI in 2015 to measure several important quantities related to nuclear muon capture on an aluminum target, which is a significant background process for Mu2e. The neutron emission from muon capture can introduce background hits in the Mu2e detectors and can increase radiation damage in various elements of the apparatus. We present measurements of the neutron group fluence and mean neutron multiplicity for muon capture on aluminum nuclei. Finally, we discuss an analysis of triboson production at CMS using an Effective Field Theory framework. Standard Model triboson production, which was first observed at CMS in 2020, has a relatively small cross section and provides direct access to both anomalous triple gauge couplings and quartic gauge couplings. These couplings, interpreted in the Standard Model Effective Field Theory, are studied in the present work. We target the boosted regime where the background rate is low and yields are enhanced when dimension-6 and dimension-8 Wilson coefficients are non-zero. We do not observe an excess in the data and therefore set bounds on the Wilson coefficients. For dimension-6 coefficients the tightest observed (expected) bounds are set on cW /Λ2 where Λ is the mass scale of new physics; the bounds are [−0.13, 0.12] TeV−2 ([−0.12, 0.12] TeV−2 ) at 95% CL. The tightest bounds in dimension-8 are set on fT,0 / Λ4 ; the observed (expected) bounds at 95% CL are [−0.63, 0.69] TeV−4 ([−0.54, 0.62] TeV−4 ). Additional results are presented which include scenarios where multiple Wilson coefficients are non-zero, the application of signal model clipping to address unitarity violation in Effective Field Theories, and a novel template fit developed for easier reinterpretation of our results.

Kampa, Cole Erik [Northwestern U. (main)] (ORCID:0↗
NASA NTRS1999

Adaptive Error Estimation in Linearized Ocean General Circulation Models

Data assimilation methods are routinely used in oceanography. The statistics of the model and measurement errors need to be specified a priori. This study addresses the problem of estimating model and measurement error statistics from observations. We start by testing innovation based methods of adaptive error estimation with low-dimensional models in the North Pacific (5-60 deg N, 132-252 deg E) to TOPEX/POSEIDON (TIP) sea level anomaly data, acoustic tomography data from the ATOC project, and the MIT General Circulation Model (GCM). A reduced state linear model that describes large scale internal (baroclinic) error dynamics is used. The methods are shown to be sensitive to the initial guess for the error statistics and the type of observations. A new off-line approach is developed, the covariance matching approach (CMA), where covariance matrices of model-data residuals are "matched" to their theoretical expectations using familiar least squares methods. This method uses observations directly instead of the innovations sequence and is shown to be related to the MT method and the method of Fu et al. (1993). Twin experiments using the same linearized MIT GCM suggest that altimetric data are ill-suited to the estimation of internal GCM errors, but that such estimates can in theory be obtained using acoustic data. The CMA is then applied to T/P sea level anomaly data and a linearization of a global GFDL GCM which uses two vertical modes. We show that the CMA method can be used with a global model and a global data set, and that the estimates of the error statistics are robust. We show that the fraction of the GCM-T/P residual variance explained by the model error is larger than that derived in Fukumori et al.(1999) with the method of Fu et al.(1993). Most of the model error is explained by the barotropic mode. However, we find that impact of the change in the error statistics on the data assimilation estimates is very small. This is explained by the large representation error, i.e. the dominance of the mesoscale eddies in the T/P signal, which are not part of the 21 by 1" GCM. Therefore, the impact of the observations on the assimilation is very small even after the adjustment of the error statistics. This work demonstrates that simult&neous estimation of the model and measurement error statistics for data assimilation with global ocean data sets and linearized GCMs is possible. However, the error covariance estimation problem is in general highly underdetermined, much more so than the state estimation problem. In other words there exist a very large number of statistical models that can be made consistent with the available data. Therefore, methods for obtaining quantitative error estimates, powerful though they may be, cannot replace physical insight. Used in the right context, as a tool for guiding the choice of a small number of model error parameters, covariance matching can be a useful addition to the repertory of tools available to oceanographers.

Chechelnitsky, Michael Y.↗
DOE OSTI2023

Validation of LOCA2 and STAR-ESDM Statistically Downscaled Products

The National Climate Assessment (NCA) is the preeminent national report examining current and future risks posed by climate change. Countless agencies, policymakers, stakeholders and other end-users rely upon guidance from the NCA to plan for an uncertain future. These groups all depend on modern curated data, provided alongside the NCA, to quantify the impact of climate change on metrics of relevance for their decision processes. In its fifth iteration (NCA5), two statistically downscaled ensemble products, each providing data at grid spacing of approximately 5km over the contiguous United States, were selected to accompany the report. These include LOCalized Analogs version 2 (LOCA2) and Seasonal Trends and Analysis of Residuals Empirical-Statistical Downscaling Model (STAR-ESDM). Both data products are produced through a process known as statistical downscaling, where relatively coarse Global Climate Model (GCM) data is refined to locally relevant scales through the application of scientifically-supported empirical and algorithmic relationships. In support of the NCA effort, this report provides an independent validation of these two products against historical observations, with a focus on precipitation and near-surface temperature variables. Based on the results of this validation, several recommendations are provided related to the use of these data products. The structure of this report is as follows: In section 2, we review three gridded observational products that are used as part of our intercomparison. In section 3, we describe the two statistical downscaling techniques and their corresponding datasets that are the focus of this study. In section 4, the methodology we employ for validation is described. Section 5 provides results of the validation, which in turn motivate our recommendations on the use of these data products. A brief summary is provided in section 6.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2006

Statistical Evaluation of Utilization of the ISS

PayLoad Utilization Modeler (PLUM) is a statistical-modeling computer program used to evaluate the effectiveness of utilization of the International Space Station (ISS) in terms of the number of research facilities that can be operated within a specified interval of time. PLUM is designed to balance the requirements of research facilities aboard the ISS against the resources available on the ISS. PLUM comprises three parts: an interface for the entry of data on constraints and on required and available resources, a database that stores these data as well as the program output, and a modeler. The modeler comprises two subparts: one that generates tens of thousands of random combinations of research facilities and another that calculates the usage of resources for each of those combinations. The results of these calculations are used to generate graphical and tabular reports to determine which facilities are most likely to be operable on the ISS, to identify which ISS resources are inadequate to satisfy the demands upon them, and to generate other data useful in allocation of and planning of resources.

Andrews, Ross↗
DOE OSTI2025

A statistical and simulation-informed model for estimating permeability from pore size distribution in saturated geomaterials

Accurate permeability estimation is essential across subsurface engineering applications but remains challenging due to the complex pore structures of natural geomaterials. Traditional empirical methods and simplified theoretical models often inadequately capture the role of pore size distribution and connectivity. Here, this study develops a statistical and simulation-informed permeability model that collapses pore-scale complexity into a compact scaling of the form k = αϕμ d 2 , where ϕ is porosity, μ d is mean pore size, and α is a weakly varying coefficient. By combining pore network simulations with statistical analysis of unimodal and bimodal pore size distributions, we identify three key findings: (i) permeability is much more sensitive to mean pore size than to porosity; (ii) across extensive datasets, the ratio σ d /μ d (standard deviation to mean) clusters around a characteristic value ∼0.4, allowing the effects of the full pore size distribution to be represented by μ d and a narrowly varying α ≈ 0.05; and (iii) for bimodal systems, there exists a critical fraction of small pores ∼0.78 above which flow becomes small-pore dominated, enabling the definition of an effective flow-controlling pore population and facilitating simplified permeability estimation for such systems. The resulting model, which requires only porosity and a representative mean pore size as inputs, is validated against comprehensive experimental datasets (>1700 samples) spanning diverse soils and rocks and achieves good predictive accuracy. Overall, this work provides a physically grounded yet practically simple permeability estimator suitable for subsurface engineering, environmental protection, and resource management applications.

Permeability↗
NASA NTRS2012

Human Thermal Model Evaluation Using the JSC Human Thermal Database

Human thermal modeling has considerable long term utility to human space flight. Such models provide a tool to predict crew survivability in support of vehicle design and to evaluate crew response in untested space environments. It is to the benefit of any such model not only to collect relevant experimental data to correlate it against, but also to maintain an experimental standard or benchmark for future development in a readily and rapidly searchable and software accessible format. The Human thermal database project is intended to do just so; to collect relevant data from literature and experimentation and to store the data in a database structure for immediate and future use as a benchmark to judge human thermal models against, in identifying model strengths and weakness, to support model development and improve correlation, and to statistically quantify a model s predictive quality. The human thermal database developed at the Johnson Space Center (JSC) is intended to evaluate a set of widely used human thermal models. This set includes the Wissler human thermal model, a model that has been widely used to predict the human thermoregulatory response to a variety of cold and hot environments. These models are statistically compared to the current database, which contains experiments of human subjects primarily in air from a literature survey ranging between 1953 and 2004 and from a suited experiment recently performed by the authors, for a quantitative study of relative strength and predictive quality of the models.

Bue, Grant↗
NASA NTRS1994

A new approach for determining fully empirical altimeter wind speed model functions

A statistical technique is developed for determining fully empirical model functions relating altimeter backscatter (sigma(sub 0)) measurements to near-surface neutral stability wind speed. By assuming that sigma(sub 0) varies monotonically and uniquely with wind speed, the method requires knowledge only of the separate, rather than joint distribution functions of sigma(sub 0) and wind speed. Analytic simplifications result from using a Weibull distribution to approximate the global ocean wind speed distribution; several different wind data sets are used to demonstrate the validity of the Weibull approximation. The technique has been applied to 1 year of Geosat data. Validation of the new and historical model functions using an independent buoy data set demonstrates that the present model function not only has small overall bias and root mean square (RMS) errors, but yields smaller systematic error trends with wind speed and pseudowave age than previously published models. The present analysis suggests that generally accuracte altimeter model functions can be derived without the use of colocated measurements, nor is additional significant wave height information measured by the altimeter necessary.

Freilich, M. H.↗
DOE OSTI2023

An introduction to the significance of sample size in particle analyses for nuclear forensics and radiological investigations

Particulate isotopic analysis in nuclear forensics has developed rapidly during the past two decades due to technical advances in determining the isotopic composition of individual particles. This paper introduces basic statistical concepts that can be applied by analysts to understand the importance of statistical adequacy when interpretating particle data. While these basic statistical methods provide a useful point-of-entry to particle data analysis, more sophisticated statistical and modeling approaches are needed to extract maximal information from such datasets in the future.

38 RADIATION CHEMISTRY, RADIOCHEMISTRY, AND NUCLEA↗
DOE OSTI2022

A method for determining optimal electric range by considering electric vehicle lightweighting on perceived ownership cost

The limited driving range due to high costs and low energy densities of batteries constraints the battery electric vehicle (BEV) market growth. Lightweighting in theory can reduce energy consumption rate and extend the driving range. The knowledge gap is to quantitatively link the cost-effectiveness of light-weight technologies with range extension and consumer acceptance of BEVs. In this study, a physics-based energy consumption model of BEVs is constructed and associated with a statistics-based model on the basis of travel surveys. A perceived cost of ownership (PCO) is then developed by adding intangible costs to traditional total cost of ownership models. We estimate, at the disaggregate vehicle model and driver level and the aggregate market level, 1) the extended range due to lightweighting for a given battery size; and 2) the optimal electric range based on lightweighting decisions. The cost-effectiveness of lightweighting for BEV range extension is found to vary with income-dependent daily range limitation value, driving patterns and lightweighting technology costs. In general, adopting lightweighting in BEVs is more cost-effective for consumers with higher daily limitation value, as well as for those with higher driving intensity or suitable daily driving patterns. When the lightweighting involves a higher vehicle production cost, less lightweighting could reduce the overall PCO for BEV owners. 4 of the selected top ten BEV models are found to benefit from additional 2.09%–4.45% lightweighting. Finally, the method built in this study can guide automakers in planning R&D investments in battery and lightweighting technologies.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗