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At least 1,009 records · Page 56

Deep nonparametric estimation of intrinsic data structures by chart autoencoders: Generalization error and robustness

Autoencoders have demonstrated remarkable success in learning low-dimensional latent features of high-dimensional data across various applications. Assuming that data are sampled near a low-dimensional manifold, we employ chart autoencoders, which encode data into low-dimensional latent features on a collection of charts, preserving the topology and geometry of the data manifold. Our paper establishes statistical guarantees on the generalization error of chart autoencoders, and we demonstrate their denoising capabilities by considering n noisy training samples, along with their noise-free counterparts, on a d-dimensional manifold. By training autoencoders, we show that chart autoencoders can effectively denoise the input data with normal noise. We prove that, under proper network architectures, chart autoencoders achieve a squared generalization error in the order of n–$\frac{2}{d+2}$log 4 n, which depends on the intrinsic dimension of the manifold and only weakly depends on the ambient dimension and noise level. We further extend our theory on data with noise containing both normal and tangential components, where chart autoencoders still exhibit a denoising effect for the normal component. As a special case, our theory also applies to classical autoencoders, as long as the data manifold has a global parametrization. Furthermore, our results provide a solid theoretical foundation for the effectiveness of autoencoders, which is further validated through several numerical experiments.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Going off topics to demix quark and gluon jets in α S extractions

Quantum chromodynamics is the theory of the strong interaction between quarks and gluons; the coupling strength of the interaction, α S , is the least precisely-known of all interactions in nature. An extraction of the strong coupling from the radiation pattern within jets would provide a complementary approach to conventional extractions from jet production rates and hadronic event shapes, and would be a key achievement of jet substructure at the Large Hadron Collider (LHC). Presently, the relative fraction of quark and gluon jets in a sample is the limiting factor in such extractions, as this fraction is degenerate with the value of αS for the most well-understood observables. To overcome this limitation, we apply recently proposed techniques to statistically demix multiple mixtures of jets and obtain purified quark and gluon distributions based on an operational definiton. We illustrate that studying quark and gluon jet substructure separately can significantly improve the sensitivity of such extractions of the strong coupling. We also discuss how using machine learning techniques or infrared- and collinear-unsafe information can improve the demixing performance without the loss of theoretical control. While theoretical research is required to connect the extract topics with the quark and gluon objects in cross section calculations, our study illustrates the potential of demixing to reduce the dominant uncertainty for the α S extraction from jet substructure at the LHC.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Inference of the Mass Composition of Cosmic Rays with Energies from 10 18.5 to 10 20 eV Using the Pierre Auger Observatory and Deep Learning

We present measurements of the atmospheric depth of the shower maximum X max , inferred for the first time on an event-by-event level using the surface detector of the Pierre Auger Observatory. Using deep learning, we were able to extend measurements of the X max distributions up to energies of 100 EeV ( 10 20 eV ), not yet revealed by current measurements, providing new insights into the mass composition of cosmic rays at extreme energies. Gaining a 10-fold increase in statistics compared to the fluorescence detector data, we find evidence that the rate of change of the average X max with the logarithm of energy features three breaks at 6.5 ± 0.6 ( stat ) ± 1 ( syst ) EeV , 11 ± 2 ( stat ) ± 1 ( syst ) EeV , and 31 ± 5 ( stat ) ± 3 ( syst ) EeV , in the vicinity to the three prominent features (ankle, instep, suppression) of the cosmic-ray flux. The energy evolution of the mean and standard deviation of the measured X max distributions indicates that the mass composition becomes increasingly heavier and purer, thus being incompatible with a large fraction of light nuclei between 50 and 100 EeV. Published by the American Physical Society 2025

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Machine-learning-enabled on-the-fly analysis of RHEED patterns during thin film deposition by molecular beam epitaxy

Thin film deposition is a fundamental technology for the discovery, optimization, and manufacturing of functional materials. Deposition by molecular beam epitaxy (MBE) typically employs reflection high-energy electron diffraction (RHEED) as a real-time in situ probe of the growing film. However, the state-of-the-art for RHEED analysis during deposition requires human observation. Here, we present an approach using machine learning (ML) methods to monitor, analyze, and interpret RHEED images on-the-fly during thin film deposition. In the analysis workflow, RHEED pattern images are collected at one frame per second and featurized using a pretrained deep convolutional neural network. The feature vectors are then statistically analyzed to identify changepoints; these changepoints can be related to changes in the deposition mode from initial film nucleation to a transition regime, smooth film deposition, and in some cases, an additional transition to a rough, islanded deposition regime. The feature vectors are additionally analyzed via graph analysis and community classification. The graph is quantified as a stabilization plot, and we show that inflection points in the stabilization plot correspond to changes in the growth regime. The full RHEED analysis workflow is termed RHAAPsody and includes data transfer and output to a visual dashboard. We demonstrate the functionality of RHAAPsody by analyzing the precaptured RHEED images from epitaxial depositions of anatase TiO2 on SrTiO3(001) and show that the analysis workflow can be executed in less than 1 s. Our approach shows promise as one component of ML-enabled real-time feedback control of the MBE deposition process.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

V-HAMSTeR v1.0.0

V-HAMSTeR is a bioinformatics software tool designed to predict the hosts of viruses directly from genomic sequences. It can be used by researchers to predict animal, prokaryotic, plant, protist or fungal viral hosts including viruses that may be fragmented or discovered in environmental metagenomic datasets. Features & Uses: The software employs a novel dual-stream deep learning architecture that dynamically fuses implicit sequence embeddings from a genomic foundation model with 13 explicit, handcrafted biological features (e.g., coding density and strand switch rates). To ensure maximum reliability, V=HAMSTeR deploys a 5-fold deep ensemble calibrated via Joint Temperature Scaling, providing users with statistically rigorous confidence probabilities. It also features an automated sequence chunking and mean-pooling module to seamlessly process variable-length contigs. Advantages Over Similar Technologies: Existing tools (e.g., IPEV, RNAVirHost) typically rely on either basic k-mers or isolated neural networks. V-HAMSTeR's hybrid architecture captures both broad genomic context and specific biological motifs that standalone foundation models often miss. Furthermore, unlike competitor tools that struggle with incomplete data or exhibit extreme overconfidence, V-HAMSTeR is explicitly benchmarked and mathematically calibrated for fragmented assemblies (1kb–10kb). This makes it uniquely robust, accurate, and trustworthy for the messy reality of real-world environmental viromics.

Grigson, Susie [Lawrence Berkeley National Laborat↗

Multiscale ACI Satellite Database

The SATELLITE_EAGLES_PNNL NetCDF dataset contains a suite of satellite- and reanalysis-derived atmospheric and surface parameters on a regular latitude–longitude grid. The dataset includes core geophysical fields such as land fraction, aerosol optical depth at multiple wavelengths (465, 550, 667, and 865 nm), sea surface temperature, estimated inversion strength, and various thermodynamic and dynamic quantities (e.g., relative humidity, vertical velocity, boundary-layer height, and surface fluxes) from both MERRA and ERA reanalysis products, provided as daily-mean and instantaneous values. A major component of the dataset consists of MODIS-retrieved cloud microphysical properties, including cloud droplet number concentration, cloud effective radius, optical thickness, and liquid water path, provided for three compositing regimes (“All,” “Q06,” and “G18”). Corresponding cloud-top parameters—temperature, height, and pressure—along with total and domain-mean cloud fraction fields are also included. The file further integrates additional satellite data from AMSR-E (for cloud water, rain water, and surface precipitation retrievals) and CERES (for top-of-atmosphere radiative fluxes, cloud fractions, and albedo). This dataset is designed to evaluate aerosol–cloud interactions in warm clouds, emphasizing the use of MODIS for deriving cloud droplet number concentration and liquid water path statistics. The complementary satellite and reanalysis fields are co-located and time-matched to the same instantaneous MODIS observations, enabling consistent comparisons between cloud properties, aerosol loading, and large-scale meteorological conditions. The dataset is recently featured in Christensen et al. (2025), Machine Learning Reveals Strong Grid-Scale Dependence in the Satellite Nd–LWP Relationship, EGUsphere [preprint], https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3850, 2025.

Christensen, Matthew [Pacific Northwest National L↗

Multiscale ACI Satellite Database

The SATELLITE_EAGLES_PNNL NetCDF dataset contains a suite of satellite- and reanalysis-derived atmospheric and surface parameters on a regular latitude–longitude grid. The dataset includes core geophysical fields such as land fraction, aerosol optical depth at multiple wavelengths (465, 550, 667, and 865 nm), sea surface temperature, estimated inversion strength, and various thermodynamic and dynamic quantities (e.g., relative humidity, vertical velocity, boundary-layer height, and surface fluxes) from both MERRA and ERA reanalysis products, provided as daily-mean and instantaneous values. A major component of the dataset consists of MODIS-retrieved cloud microphysical properties, including cloud droplet number concentration, cloud effective radius, optical thickness, and liquid water path, provided for three compositing regimes (“All,” “Q06,” and “G18”). Corresponding cloud-top parameters—temperature, height, and pressure—along with total and domain-mean cloud fraction fields are also included. The file further integrates additional satellite data from AMSR-E (for cloud water, rain water, and surface precipitation retrievals) and CERES (for top-of-atmosphere radiative fluxes, cloud fractions, and albedo). This dataset is designed to evaluate aerosol–cloud interactions in warm clouds, emphasizing the use of MODIS for deriving cloud droplet number concentration and liquid water path statistics. The complementary satellite and reanalysis fields are co-located and time-matched to the same instantaneous MODIS observations, enabling consistent comparisons between cloud properties, aerosol loading, and large-scale meteorological conditions. The dataset is recently featured in Christensen et al. (2025), Machine Learning Reveals Strong Grid-Scale Dependence in the Satellite Nd–LWP Relationship, EGUsphere [preprint], https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3850, 2025.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Data analysis of the LPSP experiment on OSO-8

The first and statistically most reliable step in the data analysis - the computation of the vertical phase lag between photospheric and chromospheric oscillations - was completed. Unfortunately, the error associated with this calculated phase lag is so great that the result has no physical significance. Since the subsequent data analysis that was originally planned would have much larger associated errors, it was concluded that the data available is insufficient to allow any meaningful results to be derived. Accordingly, the project was terminated. The reasons for the failure of the data are discussed. There are two basic reasons for this failure; (1) the very low signal to noise ratio of the raw data, and (1) the small statistical sample that resulted from the very small number of usable orbits. The final phase of data analysis is described. Finally, some comments and recommendations of a general nature are made concerning this entire contract effort. It is hoped that at least some lessons can be learned from this particular Guest Investigator project, so that future Guest Investigator programs can be pursued more effectively, and with less risk.

Frazier, E. N.↗

Observational process data analytics using causal inference

Voluminous process data are available with the paradigm shift toward smart manufacturing. However, most historical data are observational, containing noncausal correlations due to confounders and mediators. Estimating causal effects from observational data remains a bottleneck in leveraging them for active applications such as optimization and control. Further, this work aims to introduce a causal modeling framework for analyzing observational process data and extracting quantitative causal information. We demonstrate a real-world application in steel manufacturing where causal inference is used to analyze observational production data and improve the steelmaking process. Additionally, we propose a novel formulation for identifying critical process parameters from observational data, where causal inference is combined with variance-based methods to estimate corresponding risks of interventions to the manufacturing system. The proposed methods are compared with statistical ones to illustrate that causally interpreting statistical correlation leads to problematic results, while the provided workflow generates satisfactory strategies for process improvement.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Computing Nonlinear Power Spectra Across Dynamical Dark Energy Model Space with Neural ODEs

I show how to compute the nonlinear power spectrum across the entire $w(z)$ dynamical dark energy model space. Using synthetic ΛCDM data, I train a neural ordinary differential equation (ODE) to infer the evolution of the nonlinear matter power spectrum as a function of the background expansion and mean matter density across ∼9 Gyr of cosmic evolution. After training, the model generalises to any dynamical dark energy model parameterised by $w(z)$. With little optimisation, the neural ODE is accurate to within 4% up to $k = 5\, h\, {\mathrm Mpc}^{−1}$. Unlike simulation rescaling methods, neural ODEs naturally extend to summary statistics beyond the power spectrum that are sensitive to the growth history.

cosmology↗

A Topological Approach for Motion Track Discrimination

Detecting small targets at range is difficult because there is not enough spatial information present in an image sub-region containing the target to use correlation-based methods to differentiate it from dynamic confusers present in the scene. Moreover, this lack of spatial information also disqualifies the use of most state-of-the-art deep learning image-based classifiers. Here, we use characteristics of target tracks extracted from video sequences as data from which to derive distinguishing topological features that help robustly differentiate targets of interest from confusers. In particular, we calculate persistent homology from time-delayed embeddings of dynamic statistics calculated from motion tracks extracted from a wide field-of-view video stream. In short, we use topological methods to extract features related to target motion dynamics that are useful for classification and disambiguation and show that small targets can be detected at range with high probability.

Emerson, Tegan H.↗

Short-term electricity load forecasting: Application-driven evaluation of machine learning models across spatial and temporal scales

As we transition towards a decarbonized economy, the integration of variable renewable energy resources and new demands (e.g., electric vehicles, heat pumps) into the electricity grid places unprecedented pressure on grid operators to effectively anticipate and manage peak load. In this context, machine learning algorithms are proving to be indispensable for accurate short-term load forecasting, a crucial task to address these challenges. This study benchmarks 6 machine learning algorithms, including three neural networks and three tree-based algorithms, across various levels of spatial aggregation and time horizons (1, 4, 8, 24, and 48 h). The central contribution of this work is the comparison and analysis of load forecasting models not only based on statistical metrics, but also based on a novel error metric, which evaluates the cost implications of forecast errors for power system stakeholders. Results show that tree-based models outperform neural networks, based on statistical metrics, and yield less skewed error distributions for most spatial scales. However, through the lens of the novel error metric, neural networks are the more competitive choice, especially for forecast horizons that exceed 8 h. The study concludes with actionable recommendations to grid operators and highlights the need for the development of error metrics that link forecasting accuracy to operational costs. To promote transparency and open science, the datasets and Python code are open-sourced via a supplementary repository.

Houben, Nikolaus↗

RU-net for automatic characterization of TRISO fuel cross sections

During irradiation, phenomena such as kernel swelling and buffer densification may impact the performance of tristructural isotropic (TRISO) particle fuel. Post-irradiation microscopy is often used to identify these irradiation-induced morphologic changes. However, each fuel compact generally contains thousands of TRISO particles. Manually performing the work to get statistical information on these phenomena is cumbersome and subjective. Here, to reduce the subjectivity inherent in that process and to accelerate data analysis, we used convolutional neural networks (CNNs) to automatically segment cross-sectional images of microscopic TRISO layers. CNNs are a class of machine-learning algorithms specifically designed for processing structured grid data. They have gained popularity in recent years due to their remarkable performance in various computer vision tasks, including image classification, object detection, and image segmentation. In this research, we generated a large irradiated TRISO layer dataset with more than 2,000 microscopic images of cross-sectional TRISO particles and the corresponding annotated images. Based on these annotated images, we used different CNNs to automatically segment different TRISO layers. These CNNs include RU-Net (developed in this study), as well as three existing architectures: U-Net, Residual Network (ResNet), and Attention U-Net. The preliminary results show that the model based on RU-Net performs best in terms of Intersection over Union (IoU). Using CNN models, we can expedite the analysis of TRISO particle cross sections, significantly reducing the manual labor involved and improving the objectivity of the segmentation results.

11 - NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

DiffESM: Conditional Emulation of Temperature and Precipitation in Earth System Models With 3D Diffusion Models

Earth system models (ESMs) are essential for understanding the interaction between human activities and the Earth's climate. However, the computational demands of ESMs often limit the number of simulations that can be run, hindering the robust analysis of risks associated with extreme weather events. While low-cost climate emulators have emerged as an alternative to emulate ESMs and enable rapid analysis of future climate, many of these emulators only provide output on at most a monthly frequency. This temporal resolution is insufficient for analyzing events that require daily characterization, such as heat waves or heavy precipitation. We propose using diffusion models, a class of generative deep learning models, to effectively downscale ESM output from a monthly to a daily frequency. Trained on a handful of ESM realizations, reflecting a wide range of radiative forcings, our DiffESM model takes monthly mean precipitation or temperature as input, and is capable of producing daily values with statistical characteristics close to ESM output. Combined with a low-cost emulator providing monthly means, this approach requires only a small fraction of the computational resources needed to run a large ensemble. We evaluate model behavior using a number of extreme metrics, showing that DiffESM closely matches the spatio-temporal behavior of the ESM output it emulates in terms of the frequency and spatial characteristics of phenomena such as heat waves, dry spells, or rainfall intensity.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Genetic programming for interpretable, data-driven continuum damage models.

The damage mechanisms that lead to failure in engineering alloys have been studied extensively, but converting this knowledge into constitutive models that are suitable for engineering-scale analysis remains a challenge. Evolution laws for continuum damage have been developed in the past and have proven effective but suffer from many non-physical assumptions that inhibit the overall accuracy of the model. Further, the assumptions inherent in these existing models prevent them from being applicable to a broad class of materials. At the same time, computational models of fine-scale damage mechanisms continue to advance making it tractable to generate large training data sets through computer simulation. Data-driven machine learning approaches can leverage these data sets to avoid making limiting assumptions, and instead produce models directly from the results of microstructural simulations and/or experiments. Many of these machine learning approaches are rapid and accurate, but they offer little to no insight into the underlying relationships among state variables being discovered. Conversely, genetic programming symbolic regression (GPSR) is a machine learning method that produces analytic expressions relating the state variables, allowing maximal insight and interpretability. To that end, we propose using GPSR as a data-driven method of obtaining microstructurally informed continuum damage models. Data is generated using microstructural simulations of damage evolution, parameterized over microstructural statistics (i.e., pore shape) and nominally applied deformations. Analytic expressions for damage evolution are obtained from the data using GPSR, and these expressions are then utilized within a continuum constitutive model. Overall, this approach is a promising method of automatically obtaining analytic relations describing constitutive phenomena in a material.

Buche, Michael Robert↗

Tutoring electronic troubleshooting in a simulated maintenance work environment

A series of intelligent tutoring systems, or intelligent maintenance simulators, is being developed based on expert and novice problem solving data. A graded series of authentic troubleshooting problems provides the curriculum, and adaptive instructional treatments foster active learning in trainees who engage in extensive fault isolation practice and thus in conditionalizing what they know. A proof of concept training study involving human tutoring was conducted as a precursor to the computer tutors to assess this integrated, problem based approach to task analysis and instruction. Statistically significant improvements in apprentice technicians' troubleshooting efficiency were achieved after approximately six hours of training.

Gott, Sherrie P.↗

Constructing Space-Time Views from Fixed Size Statistical Data: Getting the Best of Both Worlds

Many performance monitoring tools are currently available to the super-computing community. The performance data gathered and analyzed by these tools fall under two categories: statistics and event traces. Statistical data is much more compact but lacks the probative power event traces offer. Event traces, on the other hand, can easily fill up the entire file system during execution such that the instrumented execution may have to be terminated half way through. In this paper, we propose an innovative methodology for performance data gathering and representation that offers a middle ground. The user can trade-off tracing overhead, trace data size vs. data quality incrementally. In other words, the user will be able to limit the amount of trace collected and, at the same time, carry out some of the analysis event traces offer using spacetime views for the entire execution. Two basic ideas are employed: the use of averages to replace recording data for each instance and "formulae" to represent sequences associated with communication and control flow. With the help of a few simple examples, we illustrate the use of these techniques in performance tuning and compare the quality of the traces we collected vs. event traces. We found that the trace files thus obtained are, in deed, small, bounded and predictable before program execution and that the quality of the space time views generated from these statistical data are excellent. Furthermore, experimental results showed that the formulae proposed were able to capture 100% of all the sequences associated with 11 of the 15 applications tested. The performance of the formulae can be incrementally improved by allocating more memory at run-time to learn longer sequences.

Schmidt, Melisa↗

Constructing Space-Time Views from Fixed Size Statistical Data: Getting the Best of both Worlds

Many performance monitoring tools are currently available to the super-computing community. The performance data gathered and analyzed by these tools fall under two categories: statistics and event traces. Statistical data is much more compact but lacks the probative power event traces offer. Event traces, on the other hand, can easily fill up the entire file system during execution such that the instrumented execution may have to be terminated half way through. In this paper, we propose an innovative methodology for performance data gathering and representation that offers a middle ground. The user can trade-off tracing overhead, trace data size vs. data quality incrementally. In other words, the user will be able to limit the amount of trace collected and, at the same time, carry out some of the analysis event traces offer using space-time views for the entire execution. Two basic ideas arc employed: the use of averages to replace recording data for each instance and formulae to represent sequences associated with communication and control flow. With the help of a few simple examples, we illustrate the use of these techniques in performance tuning and compare the quality of the traces we collected vs. event traces. We found that the trace files thus obtained are, in deed, small, bounded and predictable before program execution and that the quality of the space time views generated from these statistical data are excellent. Furthermore, experimental results showed that the formulae proposed were able to capture 100% of all the sequences associated with 11 of the 15 applications tested. The performance of the formulae can be incrementally improved by allocating more memory at run-time to learn longer sequences.

Schmidt, Melisa↗