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At least 1,009 records · Page 56
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

Seeded Stage III glass dissolution behavior of a statistically designed glass matrix

The glass dissolution rate of some glasses accelerates after prolonged time spent at a slow, residual glass dissolution rate. This phenomenon is referred to as Stage III behavior. Here, the acceleration in glass dissolution rate linked to Stage III behavior is significant and may be the most impactful to long-term performance of glass in a repository. This work is aimed at understanding the effect of glass composition on Stage III behavior to add a level of technical defensibility to glass disposal. To this end, a set of twenty-four glass compositions were statistically designed, where eight glass components (SiO 2 , B 2 O 3 , Al 2 O 3 , CaO, Na 2 O, SnO 2 , ZrO 2 , and Others) have been independently varied in order to study the individual effects of each. These glasses have been subjected to static dissolution tests at 90 °C in deionized water and then seeded with zeolite Na-P2 28 days into the testing to induce Stage III behavior. The response of the glasses to the zeolite seeds fell into four primary types: 1) no response to seeds; 2) an immediate linear sustained acceleration in the rate; 3) an immediate linear acceleration in the rate followed by a decrease; and, 4) a progressive acceleration in the rate that is concurrent with the addition of the seeds. The main glass components observed to influence these behaviors were CaO, Al 2 O 3 , B 2 O 3 , and ZrO 2 , where: 1) CaO influenced which glasses showed a Stage III response to seeds (high CaO: Types 2, 3, and 4) or did not respond to seeds (low CaO: Type 1), 2) Al 2 O 3 and B 2 O 3 influenced which glasses showed a sustainable Stage III response (high Al 2 O 3 : Types 2 and 4) versus transitory response (low Al 2 O 3 and high B 2 O 3 : Type 3), and 3) ZrO 2 concentration influenced whether glasses showed a linear (high ZrO 2 : Type 2) versus progressive (low ZrO 2 : Type 4) response to seeds.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2026

Enhancing ZFP: A Statistical Approach to Understanding and Reducing Error Bias in a Lossy Floating-Point Compression Algorithm

The amount of data generated and gathered in scientific simulations and data collection applications is continuously growing, putting mounting pressure on storage and bandwidth concerns. A means of reducing such issues is data compression; but, lossless data compression is typically ineffective when applied to floating-point data. Thus, users tend to apply a lossy data compressor, which allows for small deviations from the original data. It is essential to understand how the error from lossy compression impacts the accuracy of the data analytics. Thus, we must analyze not only the compression properties but the error as well. In this paper, we provide a statistical analysis of the error caused by ZFP compression, a state-of-the-art, lossy compression algorithm explicitly designed for floating-point data. We show that the error is indeed biased and propose simple modifications to the algorithm to neutralize the bias and further reduce the resulting error.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Unified description of the coupled-channels and statistical Hauser-Feshbach nuclear reaction theories for low energy neutron incident reactions

We incorporate the coupled-channels optical model into the statistical Hauser-Feshbach nuclear reaction theory, where the scattering matrix is diagonalized by performing the Engelbrecht-Weidenmüller transformation. This technique has been implemented in the coupled-channels optical model code ECIS by J. Raynal, and we extend this method so that all the open channels in a nucleon-induced reaction on a deformed nucleus can be calculated consistently.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Statistical (n,$$\gamma $$) cross section model comparison for short-lived nuclei

Abstract Neutron-capture cross sections of neutron-rich nuclei are calculated using a Hauser–Feshbach model when direct experimental cross sections cannot be obtained. A number of codes to perform these calculations exist, and each makes different assumptions about the underlying nuclear physics. We investigated the systematic uncertainty associated with the choice of Hauser-Feshbach code used to calculate the neutron-capture cross section of a short-lived nucleus. The neutron-capture cross section for $$^{73}\hbox {Zn}$$ 73 Zn (n, $$\gamma $$ γ ) $$^{74}\hbox {Zn}$$ 74 Zn was calculated using three Hauser-Feshbach statistical model codes: TALYS, CoH, and EMPIRE. The calculation was first performed without any changes to the default settings in each code. Then an experimentally obtained nuclear level density (NLD) and $$\gamma $$ γ -ray strength function ( $$\gamma \hbox {SF}$$ γ SF ) were included. Finally, the nuclear structure information was made consistent across the codes. The neutron-capture cross sections obtained from the three codes are in good agreement after including the experimentally obtained NLD and $$\gamma \hbox {SF}$$ γ SF , accounting for differences in the underlying nuclear reaction models, and enforcing consistent approximations for unknown nuclear data. It is possible to use consistent inputs and nuclear physics to reduce the differences in the calculated neutron-capture cross section from different Hauser-Feshbach codes. However, ensuring the treatment of the input of experimental data and other nuclear physics are similar across multiple codes requires a careful investigation. For this reason, more complete documentation of the inputs and physics chosen is important.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Statistical interpretation of sterile neutrino oscillation searches at reactors

A considerable experimental effort is currently under way to test the persistent hints for oscillations due to an eV-scale sterile neutrino in the data of various reactor neutrino experiments. The assessment of the statistical significance of these hints is usually based on Wilks’ theorem, whereby the assumption is made that the log-likelihood is χ 2 -distributed. However, it is well known that the preconditions for the validity of Wilks’ theorem are not fulfilled for neutrino oscillation experiments. In this work we derive a simple asymptotic form of the actual distribution of the log-likelihood based on reinterpreting the problem as fitting white Gaussian noise. From this formalism we show that, even in the absence of a sterile neutrino, the expectation value for the maximum likelihood estimate of the mixing angle remains non-zero with attendant large values of the log-likelihood. Our analytical results are then confirmed by numerical simulations of a toy reactor experiment. Finally, we apply this framework to the data of the Neutrino-4 experiment and show that the null hypothesis of no-oscillation is rejected at the 2.6 σ level, compared to 3.2 σ obtained under the assumption that Wilks’ theorem applies.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2024

Primordial nucleosynthesis with non-extensive statistics

The conventional Big Bang model successfully anticipates the initial abundances of 2 H(D), 3 He, and 4 He, aligning remarkably well with observational data. However, a persistent challenge arises in the case of 7 Li, where the predicted abundance exceeds observations by a factor of approximately three. Despite numerous efforts employing traditional nuclear physics to address this incongruity over the years, the enigma surrounding the lithium anomaly endures. In this context, we embark on an exploration of Big Bang nucleosynthesis (BBN) of light element abundances with the application of Tsallis non-extensive statistics. A comparison is made between the outcomes obtained by varying the non-extensive parameter q away from its unity value and both observational data and abundance predictions derived from the conventional big bang model. Here, a good agreement is found for the abundances of 4 He, 3 He and 7 Li, implying that the lithium abundance puzzle might be due to a subtle fine-tuning of the physics ingredients used to determine the BBN. However, the deuterium abundance deviates from observations.

Bertulani, Carlos A.↗
DOE OSTI2025

Statistical Design of Experiments Enables Rapid Exploration of Perfluorobutane Sulfonate Degradation

The phase-out of long-chain PFAS has led to the proliferation of highly recalcitrant short-chain analogs, and mineralization technologies for these short-chain PFAS are needed to mitigate their deleterious effects on environmental and human health. In this study, we utilize a statistical design of experiments, specifically, response surface methodology, to rapidly evaluate the electrochemical degradation of the short-chain PFAS, perfluorobutane sulfonate (PFBS). We evaluate the impacts of the three primary electrochemical parameters (concentration of PFBS, concentration of supporting electrolyte, and applied current) over multiple orders of magnitude on the three primary reaction outcomes of electrochemical PFBS degradation (incomplete PFBS decomposition, complete PFBS mineralization as fluorine, and anodic energy consumption). Our results correspond with literature and clearly identify the well-known tradeoff between energy consumption and complete mineralization. Intriguingly, partial PFBS decomposition and energy consumption demonstrate nonlinear dependencies in the current/supporting electrolyte concentration space and the current/PFBS concentration space, respectively. These findings highlight the utility of the response surface methodology model to efficiently interrogate a large parameter space, identifying both common results and less-obvious interactions between electrochemical parameters and their influences on reaction outcomes.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2020

Statistical properties of magnetic structures and energy dissipation during turbulent reconnection in the Earth's magnetotail

We present the first statistical study of magnetic structures and associated energy dissipation observed during a single period of turbulent magnetic reconnection, by using the in situ measurements of the Magnetospheric Multiscale mission in the Earth's magnetotail on 26 July 2017. The structures are selected by identifying a bipolar signature in the magnetic field and categorized as plasmoids or current sheets via an automated algorithm which examines current density and plasma flow. The size of the plasmoids forms a decaying exponential distribution ranging from subelectron up to ion scales. The presence of substantial number of current sheets is consistent with a physical picture of dynamic production and merging of plasmoids during turbulent reconnection. The magnetic structures are locations of significant energy dissipation via electric field parallel to the local magnetic field, while dissipation via perpendicular electric field dominates outside of the structures. Significant energy also returns from particles to fields.

Magnetotail↗
DOE OSTI2021

Temporal Analysis Of Products Statistical Analysis Processing

Temporal analysis of products statistical analysis package (tapsap) is a package for reading, cleaning, analyzing and making inference of temporal analysis of products (TAP) information. This package is designed with the intent for collaboration within the TAP community for advancing TAP analysis.

Kunz, MatthewR↗
DOE OSTI2026

Code for the manuscript "Lagrangian Attention Tensor Networks for Velocity Gradient Statistical Mode

We disclose a python/pytorch implementation of the physics-informed machine learning algorithm described in "Lagrangian Attention Tensor Networks for Velocity Gradient Statistical Modeling", LA-UR-24-30678. Direct numerical simulation (DNS) of ubiquitous turbulence phenomena is computationally infeasible for realistic flows. As a result, reduced modeling for turbulent flows aim to reduce the number of resolved scales while retaining accurate representations of the small-scale physics. The dynamics of the velocity gradient tensor (VGT) is a key ingredient in reduced or subgrid turbulence models. The evolution equation for the VGT involves nonlocal terms, requiring closure modeling. This implementation of the novel methodology of Lagrangian Attention Tensor Networks (LATN), utilizes a structured representation of the history of the VGT to inform a physics-informed machine learning algorithm. This addition of structured memory terms is shown to outperform previous models when trained and evaluated on DNS data.

Livescu, Daniel [LANL]↗
DOE OSTI2026

Assessing the Impact of a Forest Canopy on Near-Surface Wind Statistics

Representing the forest canopy in atmospheric numerical models should improve simulated winds within and above the canopy up to a few hundred meters above the ground. Here, in this study, we implement a forest canopy parameterization into the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model in a large-eddy simulation (LES) mode by applying drag forces across multiple layers within the canopy height. We use unique observations from the Lidar Experiments for Assessing Flow over Forests (LEAFF) field campaign at the Wind River Experimental Forest (WREF) in the U.S. Pacific Northwest to evaluate model performance. In a 2-day case study, the canopy parameterization improved wind predictions both within and above the canopy, particularly during the daytime and at finer grid resolution. Without it, winds were frequently overpredicted above the canopy. Similarly, derived quantities such as the wind shear index also yielded estimates closer to observations with the canopy parameterization implemented. These findings suggest that representing the canopy using drag forces alone can improve simulated mean winds up to 200 m above the surface. Furthermore, second-order statistical moments of wind were more sensitive to canopy density than first-order moments, especially during the daytime. This increased sensitivity and the improved daytime performance in wind speed—evidenced by the lowest bias from observations (3% compared to 20% over diurnal cycle)—imply that winds above the canopy layer are strongly influenced by how well turbulence above the canopy is modeled. The results of this study can serve as a foundation for parameterizing forest canopy effects in coarser weather forecast models.

Energy - Wind↗
DOE OSTI2020

A Bayesian Approach for Statistical–Physical Bulk Parameterization of Rain Microphysics. Part I: Scheme Description

A novel framework is proposed for the bulk parameterization of rain microphysics: the Bayesian Observationally Constrained Statistical–Physical Scheme (BOSS). It is designed to facilitate direct constraint by observations using Bayesian inference. BOSS combines existing process-level microphysical knowledge with flexible process rate formulations and parameters constrained by observations within a Bayesian framework. Furthermore, using a raindrop size distribution (DSD) normalization method that relates DSD moments to one another via generalized power series, generalized multivariate power expressions are derived for the microphysical process rates as functions of a set of prognostic DSD moments. The scheme is flexible and can utilize any number and combination of prognostic moments and any number of terms in the process rate formulations. This means that both uncertainty in parameter values and structural uncertainty associated with the process rate formulations can be investigated systematically, which is not possible using traditional schemes. In this paper, BOSS is compared to two- and three-moment versions of a traditional bulk rain microphysics scheme (denoted as MORR). It is demonstrated that some process formulations in MORR are analytically equivalent to the generalized power expressions in BOSS using one or two terms, while others are not. BOSS is able to replicate the behavior of MORR in idealized one-dimensional rainshaft tests, but with a much more flexible and systematic design. Part II of this study describes the application of BOSS to derive rain microphysical process rates and posterior parameter distributions in Bayesian experiments using Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling constrained by synthetic observations.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

A Bayesian Approach for Statistical–Physical Bulk Parameterization of Rain Microphysics. Part II: Idealized Markov Chain Monte Carlo Experiments

Observationally informed development of a new framework for bulk rain microphysics, the Bayesian Observationally Constrained Statistical–Physical Scheme (BOSS; described in Part I of this study), is demonstrated. This scheme’s development is motivated by large uncertainties in cloud and weather simulations associated with approximations and assumptions in existing microphysics schemes. Here, a proof-of-concept study is introduced using a Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling algorithm with BOSS to probabilistically estimate microphysical process rates and parameters directly from a set of synthetically generated rain observations. The framework utilized is an idealized steady-state one-dimensional column rainshaft model with specified column-top rain properties and a fixed thermodynamical profile. Different configurations of BOSS—flexibility being a key feature of this approach—are constrained via synthetic observations generated from a traditional three-moment bulk microphysics scheme. The ability to retrieve correct parameter values when the true parameter values are known is illustrated. For cases when there is no set of true parameter values, the accuracy of configurations of BOSS that have different levels of complexity is compared. It is found that addition of the sixth moment as a prognostic variable improves prediction of the third moment (proportional to bulk rain mass) and rain rate. In contrast, increasing process rate formulation complexity by adding more power terms has little benefit—a result that is explained using further-idealized experiments. BOSS rainshaft simulations are shown to well estimate the true process rates from constraint by bulk rain observations, with the further benefit of rigorously quantified uncertainty of these estimates.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Data-Driven Transition Path Analysis Yields a Statistical Understanding of Sudden Stratospheric Warming Events in an Idealized Model

Abstract Atmospheric regime transitions are highly impactful as drivers of extreme weather events, but pose two formidable modeling challenges: predicting the next event (weather forecasting) and characterizing the statistics of events of a given severity (the risk climatology). Each event has a different duration and spatial structure, making it hard to define an objective “average event.” We argue here that transition path theory (TPT), a stochastic process framework, is an appropriate tool for the task. We demonstrate TPT’s capacities on a wave–mean flow model of sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs) developed by Holton and Mass, which is idealized enough for transparent TPT analysis but complex enough to demonstrate computational scalability. Whereas a recent article (Finkel et al. 2021) studied near-term SSW predictability, the present article uses TPT to link predictability to long-term SSW frequency. This requires not only forecasting forward in time from an initial condition, but also backward in time to assess the probability of the initial conditions themselves. TPT enables one to condition the dynamics on the regime transition occurring, and thus visualize its physical drivers with a vector field called the reactive current . The reactive current shows that before an SSW, dissipation and stochastic forcing drive a slow decay of vortex strength at lower altitudes. The response of upper-level winds is late and sudden, occurring only after the transition is almost complete from a probabilistic point of view. This case study demonstrates that TPT quantities, visualized in a space of physically meaningful variables, can help one understand the dynamics of regime transitions.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗
DOE OSTI2023

Lagrangian and Eulerian Supersaturation Statistics in Turbulent Cloudy Rayleigh–Bénard Convection: Applications for LES Subgrid Modeling

Abstract Turbulent fluctuations of scalar and velocity fields are critical for cloud microphysical processes, e.g., droplet activation and size distribution evolution, and can therefore influence cloud radiative forcing and precipitation formation. Lagrangian and Eulerian water vapor, temperature, and supersaturation statistics are investigated in direct numerical simulations (DNS) of turbulent Rayleigh–Bénard convection in the Pi Convection Cloud Chamber to provide a foundation for parameterizing subgrid-scale fluctuations in atmospheric models. A subgrid model for water vapor and temperature variances and covariance and supersaturation variance is proposed, valid for both clear and cloudy conditions. Evaluation of phase change contributions through an a priori test using DNS data shows good performance of the model. Supersaturation is a nonlinear function of temperature and water vapor, and relative external fluxes of water vapor and heat (e.g., during entrainment-mixing and phase change) influence turbulent supersaturation fluctuations. Although supersaturation has autocorrelation and structure functions similar to the independent scalars (temperature and water vapor), the autocorrelation time scale of supersaturation differs. Relative scalar fluxes in DNS without cloud make supersaturation PDFs less skewed than the adiabatic case, where they are highly negatively skewed. However, droplet condensation changes the PDF shape response: it becomes positively skewed for the adiabatic case and negatively skewed when the sidewall relative fluxes are large. Condensation also increases correlations between water vapor and temperature in the presence of relative scalar fluxes but decreases correlations for the adiabatic case. These changes in correlation suppress supersaturation variability for the nonadiabatic cases and increase it for the adiabatic case. Implications of this work for subgrid microphysics modeling using a Lagrangian stochastic scheme are also discussed.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

A Statistical Evaluation of WRF-LES Trace Gas Dispersion Using Project Prairie Grass Measurements

In recent years, new measurement systems have been deployed to monitor and quantify methane emissions from the natural gas sector. Large-eddy simulation (LES) has complemented measurement campaigns by serving as a controlled environment in which to study plume dynamics and sampling strategies. However, with few comparisons with controlled-release experiments, the accuracy of LES for modeling natural gas emissions is poorly characterized. In this paper, we evaluate LES from the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model against Project Prairie Grass campaign measurements and surface layer similarity theory. Using WRF-LES, we simulate continuous emissions from 30 near-surface trace gas sources in two stability regimes: strong convection and weak convection. We examine the impact of grid resolutions ranging from 6.25 to 52 m in the horizontal dimension on model results. We evaluate performance in a statistical framework, calculating fractional bias and conducting Welch’s t tests. WRF-LES accurately simulates observed surface concentrations at 100 m and beyond under strong convection; simulated concentrations pass t tests in this region irrespective of grid resolution. However, in weakly convective conditions with strong winds, WRF-LES substantially overpredicts concentrations—the magnitude of fractional bias often exceeds 30%, and all but one t test fails. The good performance of WRF-LES under strong convection correlates with agreement with local free convection theory and a minimal amount of parameterized turbulent kinetic energy. The poor performance under weak convection corresponds to misalignment with Monin–Obukhov similarity theory and a significant amount of parameterized turbulent kinetic energy.

17 WIND ENERGY↗