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At least 1,009 records · Page 56

Robustness and Behavior of Adjoint Calculations of Observation Impacts in Numerical Weather Prediction

Adjoint models are powerful tools that can be used to estimate the impact of observations on a chosen norm for numerical weather prediction forecasts. In this study, the Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (NASA/GMAO) Observing System Simulation Experiment framework is employed to investigate the behavior of the adjoint tool in an environment where the 'true' state of the atmosphere is fully known. This allows for the calculation of adjoint estimates of observation impact for very short forecast times including the zero-hour analysis state. The adjoint calculations using self-analysis verification can also be compared to adjoint calculations using the 'truth' as verification in order to characterize the robustness of adjoint estimations in the operational setting. Results from a experiments exploring various aspects of performance of the adjoint tool will be presented.

Prive, Nikki C.↗

Evaluation of adjoint-based observation impacts as a function of forecast length using an Observing System Simulation Experiment

Adjoints of numerical weather prediction models may be employed for Forecast Sensitivity to Observation (FSO) in order to monitor the contribution of ingested observation data on short-term forecast skill. However, the calculation of short-term forecast error is difficult due to the lack of a truly independent dataset for verification. In an Observing System Simulation Experiment framework, the Nature Run is able to provide a true and complete verification dataset and allows accurate evaluation of short term forecast errors. In this work, an OSSE developed at the National Aeronautics and Space Administration Global Modeling and Assimilation Office is used to explore the impact of observational data on forecasts in the 6 to 48 hour range. An adjoint of the Global Earth Observing System model is employed to compare the observation impacts estimated using both self-analysis verification and the true Nature Run verification. Self-analysis verification is found to inflate the estimated forecast error growth during the early forecast period, resulting in overestimations of observation impacts, particularly in the 6-12 hour forecast range. By 48 hours, the self-analysis verification estimates of forecast error and observation impacts more closely match the true values. The fraction of beneficial observations is also overinflated at short forecast times when self-analysis verification is used. The progression of impacts of an individual observation or data type depends on the character of the growth of the initial condition error that each observation affects.

numerical weather prediction↗

Motivations and Preliminary Design for Mid-Air Deployment of a Science Rotorcraft on Mars

Mid-Air Deployment (MAD) of a rotorcraft during Entry, Descent and Landing (EDL) on Mars eliminates the need to carry a propulsion or airbag landing system. This reduces the total mass inside the aeroshell by more than 100 kg, aeroshell complexity, and likely the risk and cost associated to the mission. Moreover, the lighter entry mass enables landing in the Martian highlands, at elevations inaccessible to current EDL technologies. This paper proposes a novel MAD concept for a Mars helicopter. We suggest a minimum science payload package to perform relevant science in the highlands. A variant of the Ingenuity helicopter is proposed to provide increased deceleration during MAD, and enough lift to fly the science payload in the highlands. We show in simulation that the lighter aeroshell results in lower terminal velocity (30 m/s) at the end of the parachute phase of the EDL, and at higher altitudes than other approaches. After discussing the aerodynamics, controls, guidance and mechanical challenges associated to deploying at such speed, we propose a backshell architecture that addresses them to release the helicopter in the safest conditions. Finally, we implemented the helicopter model and aerodynamic descent perturbations in the JPL Dynamics and Real-Time Simulation (DARTS) framework. Preliminary performance evaluation indicate landing and helicopter operations can be achieved up to +5 km MOLA.

Rapin, William↗

A sampling-based optimization approach to handling environmental uncertainty for a planetary lander

Planning for unknown environments presents a number of technical challenges. The planner must ensure robustness to unknown phenomena and manage unpredictable variation in execution, all while operating in a capacity that maximizes its objective. Productivity in the face of these challenges re-quires an integrated approach to planning and execution that is capable of accomplishing goals, reacting to variation, and maximizing overall utility. We examine this problem in the context of a Europa Lander concept mission. We model the problem as a hierarchical task network, framing it as a utility maximization problem constrained on a depletable energy resource. We propose an uncertainty–sensitive deterministic planning framework that utilizes periodic replanning to better handle model uncertainty and variable execution. We demonstrate the efficacy of our framework through simulations of a Europa Lander concept mission in which our algorithm out-performs several baseline approaches in both utility maximization and robustness

Zilberstein, Shlomo↗

Potential Use of Spaceborne Differential Absorption Radar Measurements of Marine Surface Pressure to Improve Weather and Tropical Cyclone Forecasting

Differential absorption radar (DAR) has been identified as a method to remotely sense surface air pressure, particularly over the marine surface. Such an instrument would provide an estimate of the total atmospheric column oxygen content from which the surface air pressure can be calculated. NASA recently funded the development of a demonstrator instrument, the airborne Microwave Barometric Radar and Sounder (MBARS) to test and evaluate this retrieval. The potential impact of surface pressure observations from a spaceborne sensor is evaluated using the updated NASA/GMAO global Observing System Simulation Experiment framework. Initial experiments showing the impact of different orbital configurations of DAR surface pressure measurements on overall NWP will be shown, including Forecast Sensitivity Observation Impact metrics. Case studies of satellite-based surface air pressure retrievals on tropical cyclones will also be discussed.

DAR↗

A Sampling-Based Optimization Approach to Handling Environmental Uncertainty for a Planetary Lander

Planning for unknown environments presents a number of technical challenges. The planner must ensure robustness to unknown phenomena and manage unpredictable variation in execution, all while operating in a capacity that maximizes its objective. Productivity in the face of these challenges re-quires an integrated approach to planning and execution that is capable of accomplishing goals, reacting to variation, and maximizing overall utility. We examine this problem in the context of a Europa Lander concept mission. We model the problem as a hierarchical task network, framing it as a utility maximization problem constrained on a depletable energy resource. We propose an uncertainty–sensitive deterministic planning framework that utilizes periodic replanning to better handle model uncertainty and variable execution. We demonstrate the efficacy of our framework through simulations of a Europa Lander concept mission in which our algorithm out-performs several baseline approaches in both utility maximization and robustness

Chien, Steve↗

Urban Renewable Building And Neighborhood Optimization

URBANopt is a user interface for creating and running district and city scale building energy simulations. The framework is built around the OpenStudio Urban Measures which are part of the OpenStudio project. Building footprints, building height, building type, and other data can be imported from public records or other sources. Footprints and locations for new buildings and district systems can also be specified. OpenStudio Measures are used to create starting point energy models and to model energy design features and efficiency measures for each building. URBANopt allows a user to pose several scenarios such as “what if 30% of the commercial retail buildings added roof top solar” or “what if all elementary schools converted to ground source heat pumps” and then visualize the impacts at a district or city scale. URBANopt is capable of modeling existing buildings, new construction, and district energy systems. URBANopt can be used to explore options for achieving Zero Energy across a collection of buildings (e.g., Zero Energy Districts).

Source record↗

Safety Impacts of Automated Vehicles in Mixed Traffic

Previous research have shown that Automated Vehicles (AV) have the potential to improve transportation thanks to the possibility to perform some control functions without driver input (1). A question that remains is what are the safety impacts of the interaction between human-driven vehicles with different levels of automation at a particular intersection?The main objective of this paper is to build the behavioral framework to simulate different levels of automation and to study the safety impact of these levels under different penetration scenarios. Real-life connected vehicle data were incorporated to revise the Wiedemann car-following model and simulate the behavior of human-driven vehicles, level 3 and level 5 AVs.

Ramin, Arvin↗

Evaluating Safety with Automated Vehicles at Signalized Intersections: Application of Adaptive Cruise Control in Mixed Traffic

Automated Vehicles (AV) can potentially improve the performance of transportation system by reducing human errors and enhancing mobility and safety. In lower levels of automation, humans are still controlling the vehicle and receiving some advisory information regarding their surrounding environment. This paper investigates the safety impact of low and high levels of AVs, and their interaction with conventional human-driven vehicles at intersections. In order to enhance our understanding of the future interactions between conventional vehicles with AVs, we developed a framework to simulate the mixed traffic environment. Different market penetration scenarios are simulated using VENTOS (VEhicular NeTwork Open Simulator) software. A modified Wiedemann car-following model was calibrated to represent the behavior of human drivers of both conventional and low-level AVs, while an Adaptive Cruise Control model was used to represent high-level AVs. Notably, this study investigates purely the automation improvement in the system. We modified the acceleration and deceleration regimes of the Wiedemann model and tuned it by harnessing real-world connected vehicle data. Next, the simulation was calibrated utilizing two measures of driving volatility to ensure it closely represents the volatility measures of the real-world data. To evaluate the safety performance of a representative intersection under different scenarios, the number of longitudinal conflicts and driving volatility are used as surrogate safety indicators. The results reveal that increase in market penetration rate of LAVs and HAVs substantially improves intersection safety performance by reducing the number of conflicts and driving volatility.

Arvin, Ramin↗

Model-Agnostic Algorithm for Real-Time Attack Identification in Power Grid using Koopman Modes

Malicious activities on measurements from sensors like Phasor Measurement Units (PMUs) can mislead the control center operator into taking wrong control actions resulting in disruption of operation, financial losses, and equipment damage. In particular, false data attacks initiated during power systems transients caused due to abrupt changes in load and generation can fool the conventional model-based detection methods relying on thresholds comparison to trigger an anomaly. In this paper, we propose a Koopman mode decomposition (KMD) based algorithm to detect and identify false data attacks in real-time. The Koopman modes (KMs) are capable of capturing the nonlinear modes of oscillation in the transient dynamics of the power networks and reveal the spatial embedding of both natural and anomalous modes of oscillations in the sensor measurements. The Koopman-based spatio-temporal nonlinear modal analysis is used to filter out the false data injected by an attacker. The performance of the algorithm is illustrated on the IEEE 68-bus test system using synthetic attack scenarios generated on GridSTAGE, a recently developed multivariate spatio-temporal data generation framework for simulation of adversarial scenarios in cyber-physical power systems.

Nandanoori, Sai Pushpak↗

Adapting Existing Energy Models for Resilience Analysis

Resilience is a topic receiving much attention in relation to energy systems, with particular attention being paid to the supply of electricity. As a result of the growing interest in energy sector resilience, research communities have proposed a plethora of candidate resilience indicators and metrics, most of which remain immature at different scales and segments within the energy system. A necessary focus of the research community lies in implementing, testing, and validating resilience metrics and analysis approaches in energy sector models, which will be invaluable for informing resilience planning and investment decisions. Recognizing these challenges that need to be addressed, we explore how to effectively integrate resilience considerations into energy sector models and tools. The overarching goal of the effort was to evaluate the data needs, methodologies, and outcomes—including consequences and/or changes in investment or operational decisions due to avoided consequences—based on resilience analysis in a range of existing tools. In particular, we selected five models originally built at NREL to explore non-resilience energy research questions to implement and exercise resilience metrics and analysis approaches. To demonstrate the importance of perspective, we selected models that represent different segments of the energy sector, geographic scales, and modeling approaches. A second important aspect of our effort was the development of generalized power interruption scenarios. These scenarios were intended to help establish a framework for simulating the effects of real-world threats in terms of their impacts on system components and, in turn, power interruption.

ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

V1G Frequency Regulation: Algorithm Development, Validation & Analysis at Scale

Researchers at Argonne National Laboratory developed and validated a high-fidelity digital twin of a smart charging (V1G) ecosystem to model the participation of up to 1,000 unique electric vehicles (EVs) in the PJM frequency regulation market. Utilizing a discrete-event framework, the simulation models complex interactions, from dynamic grid signals (updated every 2 seconds) to individual EV charging dynamics. The simulation incorporates multiple EV models created from real-world lab test data. Researchers tested multiple control algorithms to balance the dual objectives of maximizing aggregator’s revenue and driver charging needs. Results demonstrate that aggregated EVs function as a controllable, highly effective grid resource, achieving high PJM Performance Scores (80–90%). Additionally, an optimized, market-aware bidding strategy was identified as key to profitability. The platform was shown to provide drivers with an average charging discount of nearly 50%. The algorithm was further validated in the lab using production EVs and charging stations to compare simulation results with real-world performance.

Manne, Nithin↗

Design Tool for Estimating Chemical Hydrogen Storage System Characteristics for Light-Duty Fuel Cell Vehicles

The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) has developed a vehicle framework model to simulate fuel cell-based light-duty vehicle operation for various hydrogen storage systems. This transient model simulates the performance of the storage system, fuel cell, and vehicle for comparison to DOE’s Technical Targets using four drive cycles/profiles. Chemical hydrogen storage models have been developed for the Framework model for both exothermic and endothermic materials. Despite the utility of such models, they require that material researchers input system design specifications that cannot be easily estimated. To address this challenge, a design tool has been developed that allows researchers to directly enter kinetic and thermodynamic chemical hydrogen storage material properties into a simple sizing module that then estimates the systems parameters required to run the storage system model. Additionally, this design tool can be used as a standalone executable file to estimate the storage system mass and volume outside of the framework model and compare it to the DOE Technical Targets. These models will be explained and exercised with existing hydrogen storage materials.

hydrogen storage materials, Fuel Cell Vehicles, de↗

NEAMS-IPL MOOSE Midyear Framework Activities

Multiphysics Object Oriented Simulation Environement (MOOSE) is a modular, pluggable framework for building complex simulations. The ability to add new objects with custom syntax is a core capability that makes MOOSE a powerful platform for coupling multiple applications together within a single environment. Documentation is not only a required component for a complete software quality assurance plan, but is critical to the overall success and wide-spread adoption of the platform by other researchers and institutions. Therefore, the notion of a modular, pluggable framework has been extended to the creation of documentation content. This report details the methodology for defining the NQA-1 compliant requirements in a manner that allows for the automatic generation of the Software Requirement Specification (SRS), Software Design Description (SDD), and Requirement Traceabiltity Matrix (RTM) from any repository revision.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗