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NASA NTRS2015

Improving Climate Projections Using "Intelligent" Ensembles

Recent changes in the climate system have led to growing concern, especially in communities which are highly vulnerable to resource shortages and weather extremes. There is an urgent need for better climate information to develop solutions and strategies for adapting to a changing climate. Climate models provide excellent tools for studying the current state of climate and making future projections. However, these models are subject to biases created by structural uncertainties. Performance metrics-or the systematic determination of model biases-succinctly quantify aspects of climate model behavior. Efforts to standardize climate model experiments and collect simulation data-such as the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP)-provide the means to directly compare and assess model performance. Performance metrics have been used to show that some models reproduce present-day climate better than others. Simulation data from multiple models are often used to add value to projections by creating a consensus projection from the model ensemble, in which each model is given an equal weight. It has been shown that the ensemble mean generally outperforms any single model. It is possible to use unequal weights to produce ensemble means, in which models are weighted based on performance (called "intelligent" ensembles). Can performance metrics be used to improve climate projections? Previous work introduced a framework for comparing the utility of model performance metrics, showing that the best metrics are related to the variance of top-of-atmosphere outgoing longwave radiation. These metrics improve present-day climate simulations of Earth's energy budget using the "intelligent" ensemble method. The current project identifies several approaches for testing whether performance metrics can be applied to future simulations to create "intelligent" ensemble-mean climate projections. It is shown that certain performance metrics test key climate processes in the models, and that these metrics can be used to evaluate model quality in both current and future climate states. This information will be used to produce new consensus projections and provide communities with improved climate projections for urgent decision-making.

Baker, Noel C.↗
NASA NTRS2018

Practical Aspects of the Frequency Domain Approach for Aircraft System Identification

Practical aspects of the frequency-domain approach for aircraft system identification are explained and demonstrated. Topics related to experiment design, flight data analysis, and dynamic modeling are included. For demonstration purposes, simulated time series data and simulated flight data from an F-16 nonlinear simulation with realistic noise are used. This approach enables detailed evaluations of the techniques and results, because the true characteristics of the data and aircraft dynamics are known for the simulated data. Analytical techniques and practical considerations are examined for the finite Fourier transform, nonparametric frequency response estimation, parametric modeling in the frequency domain, experiment design for frequency-domain modeling, data analysis and modeling in the frequency domain, and real-time calculations. Flight data from a subscale jet transport aircraft are used to demonstrate some of the techniques and technical issues.

Morelli, Eugene A.↗
NASA NTRS1976

A simulation of water pollution model parameter estimation

A parameter estimation procedure for a water pollution transport model is elaborated. A two-dimensional instantaneous-release shear-diffusion model serves as representative of a simple transport process. Pollution concentration levels are arrived at via modeling of a remote-sensing system. The remote-sensed data are simulated by adding Gaussian noise to the concentration level values generated via the transport model. Model parameters are estimated from the simulated data using a least-squares batch processor. Resolution, sensor array size, and number and location of sensor readings can be found from the accuracies of the parameter estimates.

Kibler, J. F.↗
NASA NTRS1976

A single field of view method for retrieving tropospheric temperature profiles from cloud-contaminated radiance data

An iterative method is presented to retrieve single field of view (FOV) tropospheric temperature profiles directly from cloud-contaminated radiance data. A well-defined temperature profile may be calculated from the radiative transfer equation (RTE) for a partly cloudy atmosphere when the average fractional cloud amount and cloud-top height for the FOV are known. A cloud model is formulated to calculate the fractional cloud amount from an estimated cloud-top height. The method is then examined through use of simulated radiance data calculated through vertical integration of the RTE for a partly cloudy atmosphere using known values of cloud-top height(s) and fractional cloud amount(s). Temperature profiles are retrieved from the simulated data assuming various errors in the cloud parameters. Temperature profiles are retrieved from NOAA-4 satellite-measured radiance data obtained over an area dominated by an active cold front and with considerable cloud cover and compared with radiosonde data. The effects of using various guessed profiles and the number of iterations are considered.

Hodges, D. B.↗
NASA NTRS1999

Use of Data to Improve El Nino Southern Oscillation Simulations and Forecasts

Various data over the period 1980-1998 have been used to improve El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) simulations and forecasts performed by coupled ocean/atmosphere models. For such a study, oceanic and atmospheric satellite data are necessary. Models assume a baroclinic ocean with a mixed layer coupled to a baroclinic atmosphere to simulate the anomalous fields. The various data have been used to revisit the parameterizations of the subsurface temperature in the mixed layer, atmospheric convection, and friction in the baroclinic ocean. This new model, named Tsub.Conv, simulates 4-year oscillations like the model with the original parameterization, but with anomalous thermocline and wind anomalies that agree a lot better with reality. The atmospheric model still presents some deficiencies in the eastern Pacific and when it is replaced by a statistical atmosphere, the coupled model (Tsub.Astat) performs even better. It is found that the off-equatorial ocean and wind curl anomalies play a crucial role for all these models and that Tsub.Astat simulates an ocean heat content recharge coming from the north prior to a warm event like the ones observed during the 1985-1992 period. The ENSO forecasts over 1980-1998 are considerably improved with Tsub.Astat. One needs to add the simulation of westerly wind bursts to be able to forecast the 1997 event one year in advance. Additional information is contained in the original.

Perigaud, Claire↗
NASA NTRS1984

A hardware/software simulation for the video tracking system of the Kuiper Airborne Observatory telescope

This simulator was created so that C-141 Kuiper Airborne Observatory investigators could test their Airborne Data Acquisition and Management System software on a system which is generally more accessible than the ADAMS on the plane. An investigator can currently test most of his data acquisition program using the data computer simulator in the Cave. (The Cave refers to the ground-based computer facilities for the KAO and the associated support personnel.) The main Cave computer is interfaced to the data computer simulator in order to simulate the data-Exec computer communications. However until now, there has been no way to test the data computer interface to the tracker. The simulator described here simulates both the KAO Exec and tracker computers with software which runs on the same Hewlett-Packard (HP) computer as the investigator's data acquisition program. A simulator control box is hardwired to the computer to provide monitoring of tracker functions, to provide an operator panel similar to the real tracker, and to simulate the 180 deg phase shifting of the chopper squre-wave reference with beam switching. If run in the Cave, one can use their Exec simulator and this tracker simulator.

Boozer, G. A.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Simulating High Energy Dynamic Impact of IM7/PEKK Continuous Fiber Laminated Thermoplastic Composite using Open Hole Coupon Experiments

The use of advanced thermoplastic composites (TPC) for structural applications in the aerospace and automotive industries has grown increasingly popular due to their high performance, high manufactured part output, and sustainability. Enhancing verification simulations of the progressive failure in TPCs at the coupon scale is needed to better validate advanced composite material models at larger length scales, such as element level panels. MAT_213, a tabulated composite material model, has been applied to simulate high velocity dynamic impact (HEDI) and is integrated in the LS-DYNA explicit finite element (FE) software. Previous efforts using MAT_213 have calibrated HEDI simulated failures with experimental data. Traditionally simulations have relied on a structured mesh to represent quasi-isotropic panels. For this study, a continuous fiber unidirectional tape, IM7/PEKK, was analyzed through a series of verification studies of notched laminate coupons, then validation analyses of quasi-isotropic panels under HEDI were compared with experimental data. Experiments using unidirectional TPC were performed to obtain tabulated stress vs strain curves using Digital Image Correlation (DIC) for input into MAT_213. Next, notched coupon experiments were used as an intermediate step to calibrate the damage and failure behavior in MAT_213. Lastly, investigations into differences between HEDI simulations using a fiber aligned mesh were compared with experimental failure patterns and damage sizes. The use of experimentally generated material behavior along with selective mesh layout improved HEDI predictions with minimal material parameter calibration.

Polymer matrix composites↗
NASA NTRS2007

Large and Small Droplet Impingement Data on Airfoils and Two Simulated Ice Shapes

Water droplet impingement data were obtained at the NASA Glenn Icing Research Tunnel (IRT) for four wings and one wing with two simulated ice shapes. The wings tested include three 36-in. chord wings (MS(1)-317, GLC-305, and a NACA 652-415) and a 57-in. chord Twin Otter horizontal tail section. The simulated ice shapes were 22.5- and 45-min glaze ice shapes for the Twin Otter horizontal tail section generated using the LEWICE 2.2 ice accretion program. The impingement experiments were performed with spray clouds having median volumetric diameters of 11, 21, 79, 137, and 168 mm. Comparisons to the experimental data were generated which showed good agreement for the clean wings and ice shapes at lower drop sizes. For larger drop sizes LEWICE 2.2 over predicted the collection efficiencies due to droplet splashing effects which were not modeled in the program. Also for the more complex glaze ice shapes interpolation errors resulted in the over prediction of collection efficiencies in cove and shadow regions of ice shapes.

Papadakis, Michael↗
NASA NTRS1986

Simulation of LANDSAT multispectral scanner spatial resolution with airborne scanner data

A technique for simulation of low spatial resolution satellite imagery by using high resolution scanner data is described. The scanner data is convolved with the approximate point spread function of the low resolution data and then resampled to emulate low resolution imagery. The technique was successfully applied to Daedalus airborne scanner data to simulate a portion of a LANDSAT multispectra scanner scene.

Hlavka, C. A.↗
NASA NTRS1982

Helicopter simulation validation using flight data

A joint NASA/Army effort to perform a systematic ground-based piloted simulation validation assessment is described. The best available mathematical model for the subject helicopter (UH-60A Black Hawk) was programmed for real-time operation. Flight data were obtained to validate the math model, and to develop models for the pilot control strategy while performing mission-type tasks. The validated math model is to be combined with motion and visual systems to perform ground based simulation. Comparisons of the control strategy obtained in flight with that obtained on the simulator are to be used as the basis for assessing the fidelity of the results obtained in the simulator.

Key, D. L.↗
NASA NTRS1979

Parameter identification applied to analytic hingeless rotor modeling

It is known that dynamic rotor inflow has a substantial effect on rotor dynamic loads. Despite the complexity of the unsteady flow problem, simple analytical models can be made useful by identifying their parameters from transient response tests without performing flow measurements. Two analytical inflow models are studied: the first is based on an equivalent blade Lock number, the second is based on a time delayed unsteady momentum inflow. In preparation for the experimental data analysis, identifications from simulated test data and an eigenvalue analysis are performed. The experimental results show that the first analytical inflow model is accurate for rotor advance ratios of 0.4 and above. For lower advance ratios, the second inflow model provides better accuracy. Prediction studies with experimental data not used for the identification are performed to determine the accuracy of the mathematical models.

Banerjee, D.↗
NASA NTRS1981

Effects of lateral resolution on the identification of volcanotectonic provinces on earth and Venus

In an attempt to learn what volcanotectonic features can still be discerned in continental and oceanic areas of the earth when topographic data are degraded to simulate the data sampled by the Pioneer-Venus altimeter, two digital topographic data sets (the 30-second continental U.S. altitude data and the 30 x 30 nautical mile bathymetry data for the North Pacific) were degraded and displayed in the same way as the altimeter data from Venus. The Appalachians were reduced to a gentle swell, with a wavelength of 300 km, and a height of 500 m. The Cordillera was seen as a broad swell, 2500 km wide, and about 2 km high. The east Pacific rise, east Pacific fractures, seamount chains, the Hawaiian swell, and most trenches were discernible in the degraded Pacific data; whereas rises, transforms, seamount chains, and trenches were not seen in the Venus data, even after corrections were made for the higher surface temperature and the absence of oceans on Venus. It was concluded that a plate tectonic regime, similar to earth's does not currently appear to exist on Venus. As shown by the Cordillera data, the Pioneer-Venus information is not of sufficiently high quality to discern whether the highlands of Venus preserve evidence for orogenic events related to plate tectonics.

Arvidson, R. E.↗
NASA NTRS2004

Superposed Epoch Analysis of Ring Current Geoeffectiveness Related to Solar Wind and Plasma Sheet Drivers

The goal of that proposal was to examine the relationship between solar wind drivers and ring current dynamics through data analysis and numerical simulations. The data analysis study was a statistical examination (via superposed epoch analyses) of a solar cycle's worth of storm data. Solar wind data, geophysical indices, and geosynchronous plasma data were collected for every time period with Dst< -50 nT from 1989 through 2002, and the storm list now exceeds 400 entries. This work was first conducted by a summer undergraduate student, Mr. John Vann (University of Kansas), with funding from the NSF Research Experience for Undergraduates program. It was then continued by a University of Michigan graduate student, Mr. Jichun Zhang. Mr. Zhang is now in his fourth year at U-M and is progressing very well toward a PhD in space science. His dissertation will be based on his data analysis and modeling efforts using this geomagnetic storm database. The results of the data analysis study have been the focus of several conference presentations, and the first manuscript has just been published. Two additional papers are presently being prepared, one on average (superposed) solar wind features for various storm subsets (e.g., intense storms at solar maximum), and another on geosynchronous plasma features for these same storm subsets. The latter result was highlighted by the TR&T program director in his presentation at the COSPAR meeting this summer.

Liemohm, M. W.↗
NASA NTRS2023

Development of Level of Detail System and First-Person Camera for the GCAS Visualization Suite

The use of data-driven simulations has become standard practice as part of planning for future space missions. These simulations allow visualizing the data interactively to show what the data represents, as well as the importance of the data in the context of the mission. Using this visualized data can enhance users’ understanding of it and accelerate analysis efforts related to missions planned around it. Three-dimensional (3D) visualization software was developed to allow creating 3D representations of various communication systems, as well as the physical terrain of the Moon, for upcoming missions. The goal of this software development effort was to create interactive visualization capabilities in the Glenn Research Center Communication Analysis Suite (GCAS) using data exported from MATLAB® (MathWorks, Inc.) scripts. This software had the functionality to visualize the line of sight and dynamic link margins of the communication satellites orbiting the Earth and the Moon. One important addition to this was the visualization of the terrain data located within the GeoTIFF files, which were produced in an effort to understand the Moon’s terrain. Proper displacement values of this data have to be visualized to showcase where craters are located and how the shadow casting works with said craters at different points of the day, as well as analysis of possible landing sites for future lunar expeditions. The graphics library coded in JavaScript, three.js, had been previously selected for developing this visualization software. The software was revised to conform to modern standards, then further developed to convert the MATLAB® data into JavaScript 3D objects and Blender GL Transmission Format Binary file (GLB) objects, which were to be imported into the scene. In the process, a variety of other testing projects were created to be combined with this project at a later point; these included the first-person camera movements around spherical objects to portray human movement around the Moon, GeoTIFF loading methods, data transfer methods for incorporating the elevation data into the scene, and level of detail (LOD) capabilities to decrease memory usage and rendering time.

Visualization↗
NASA NTRS1982

Evaluation of SLAR and simulated thematic mapper MSS data for forest cover mapping using computer-aided analysis techniques

Kershaw County, South Carolina was selected as the study site for analyzing simulated thematic mapper MSS data and dual-polarized X-band synthetic aperture radar (SAR) data. The impact of the improved spatial and spectral characteristics of the LANDSAT D thematic mapper data on computer aided analysis for forest cover type mapping was examined as well as the value of synthetic aperture radar data for differentiating forest and other cover types. The utility of pattern recognition techniques for analyzing SAR data was assessed. Topics covered include: (1) collection and of TMS and reference data; (2) reformatting, geometric and radiometric rectification, and spatial resolution degradation of TMS data; (3) development of training statistics and test data sets; (4) evaluation of different numbers and combinations of wavelength bands on classification performance; (5) comparison among three classification algorithms; and (6) the effectiveness of the principal component transformation in data analysis. The collection, digitization, reformatting, and geometric adjustment of SAR data are also discussed. Image interpretation results and classification results are presented.

Hoffer, R. M.↗
NASA NTRS2023

Modeling the Formation and Eruption of Coronal Structures by Linking Data-Driven Magnetofrictional and MHD Simulations for AR 12673

Context .The data-driven and time-dependent modeling of coronal magnetic fields is crucial for understanding solar eruptions. These efforts are complicated by the challenges of finding a balance between physical realism and computing efficiency. One possible technique is to couple two modeling approaches. Aims . Our aim here is to showcase our progress in using time-dependent magnetofrictional model (TMFM) results as input to dynamical magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) simulations. However, due to the different evolution processes in these two models, using TMFM snapshots in an MHD simulation is nontrivial. We address these issues, both physically and numerically, discuss the incompatibility of the TMFM output to serve as the initial condition in MHD simulations, and show our methods of mitigating this. The evolution of the flux systems and the cause of the eruption are investigated. Methods . TMFM is a prevalent approach that has proven to be a very useful tool in the study of the formation of unstable structures in the solar corona. In particular, it is capable of incorporating observational data as initial and boundary conditions and requires shorter computational time compared to MHD simulations. To leverage the efficiency of data-driven TMFM and also to simulate eruptive events in the MHD framework, one can apply TMFM up to a certain time before the expected eruption(s) and then proceed with the simulation in the full or ideal MHD regime in order to more accurately capture the eruption process. Results . We show the results of a benchmark test case with a linked TMFM and MHD simulation to study the evolution of NOAA active region 12673. A rise of a twisted flux bundle through the MHD simulation domain is observed, but we find that the rate of the rise and the altitude reached depends on the time of the TMFM snapshot that was used to initialize the MHD simulation and the helicity injected into the system. The analysis suggested that torus instability and slip-running reconnection could play an important role in the eruption. Conclusions . The results show that the linkage of TMFM and zero-β MHD models can be successfully used to model the eruptive coronal magnetic fields.

F. Daei↗
NASA NTRS1994

Multifractal characterizations of nonstationarity and intermittency in geophysical fields: Observed, retrieved, or simulated

Geophysical data rarely show any smoothness at any scale, and this often makes comparison with theoretical model output difficult. However, highly fluctuating signals and fractal structures are typical of open dissipative systems with nonlinear dynamics, the focus of most geophysical research. High levels of variability are excited over a large range of scales by the combined actions of external forcing and internal instability. At very small scales we expect geophysical fields to be smooth, but these are rarely resolved with available instrumentation or simulation tools; nondifferentiable and even discontinuous models are therefore in order. We need methods of statistically analyzing geophysical data, whether measured in situ, remotely sensed or even generated by a computer model, that are adapted to these characteristics. An important preliminary task is to define statistically stationary features in generally nonstationary signals. We first discuss a simple criterion for stationarity in finite data streams that exhibit power law energy spectra and then, guided by developments in turbulence studies, we advocate the use of two ways of analyzing the scale dependence of statistical information: singular measures and qth order structure functions. In nonstationary situations, the approach based on singular measures seeks power law behavior in integrals over all possible scales of a nonnegative stationary field derived from the data, leading to a characterization of the intermittency in this (gradient-related) field. In contrast, the approach based on structure functions uses the signal itself, seeking power laws for the statistical moments of absolute increments over arbitrarily large scales, leading to a characterization of the prevailing nonstationarity in both quantitative and qualitative terms. We explain graphically, step by step, both multifractal statistics which are largely complementary to each other. The geometrical manifestations of nonstationarity and intermittency, 'roughness' and 'sparseness', respectively, are illustrated and the associated analytical (differentiability and continuity) properties are discussed. As an example, the two techniques are applied to a series of recent measurements of liquid water distributions inside marine stratocumulus decks; these are found to be multifractal over scales ranging from approximately 60 m to approximately 60 km. Finally, we define the 'mean multifractal plane' and show it to be a simple yet comprehensive tool with many applications including data intercomparison, (dynamical or stochastic) model and retrieval validations.

Davis, Anthony↗