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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 1,009 records · Page 56
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

The DECADE cosmic shear project III: validation of analysis pipeline using spatially inhomogeneous data

We present the pipeline for the cosmic shear analysis of the Dark Energy Camera All Data Everywhere (DECADE) weak lensing dataset: a catalog consisting of 107 million galaxies observed by the Dark Energy Camera (DECam) in the northern Galactic cap. The catalog derives from a large number of disparate observing programs and is therefore more inhomogeneous across the sky compared to existing lensing surveys. First, we use simulated data-vectors to show the sensitivity of our constraints to different analysis choices in our inference pipeline, including sensitivity to residual systematics. Next we use simulations to validate our covariance modeling for inhomogeneous datasets. Finally, we show that our choices in the end-to-end cosmic shear pipeline are robust against inhomogeneities in the survey, by extracting relative shifts in the cosmology constraints across different subsets of the footprint/catalog and showing they are all consistent within 1σ to 2σ. This is done for forty-six subsets of the data and is carried out in a fully consistent manner: for each subset of the data, we re-derive the photometric redshift estimates, shear calibrations, survey transfer functions, the data vector, measurement covariance, and finally, the cosmological constraints. Our results show that existing analysis methods for weak lensing cosmology can be fairly resilient towards inhomogeneous datasets. This also motivates exploring a wider range of image data for pursuing such cosmological constraints.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Computationally efficient Bayesian estimation of graphical networks for omics data

Graphical networks are useful, widely-used modeling approaches to represent complex biological processes with biological measurements generated by platforms such as mass spectrometry. Bayesian analyses of graphical networks for omics data have several advantages over their frequentist counterparts, such as the inclusion of prior knowledge in the estimation of models. However, Bayesian approaches to date have only been feasible for data with a couple hundred biomolecules due to prohibitive computational time, but omics data often contains tens of thousands of biomolecules. Here, we present and illustrate a more computationally efficient approach named BPlane (Bayesian PseudoLikelihood-based Algorithm for Network Estimation) to extend Bayesian modeling capabilities for larger-sized datasets, such as most untargeted proteomics data. Via simulation, we demonstrate that BPlane produces substantial computational savings over a current state-of-the-art Bayesian algorithm while maintaining competitive edge detection accuracy. On a SARS-CoV2 proteomics data with 7000 proteins, the competing algorithm takes three times as long to complete the first iteration as BPlane takes to converge after over 100 iterations.

EM algorithm↗
DOE OSTI2022

Multicomponent gas mixture parametric CFD study of condensation heat transfer in small modular reactor system safety

Safety is always the primary concern for designing and analyzing nuclear reactor systems. The requirements for the safety margin for advanced small modular reactor (SMR) systems are targeted even higher than the conventional commercial large-scale nuclear reactors incorporating the passive and inherent safety systems. The SMR systems are designed with the condensation passive containment cooling system (PCCS), which plays a critical role in removing reactor heat during a steam release accident case. However, the presence of non-condensable gas (NCG), like air, reduces the heat transfer performance. This physics phenomenon becomes multifactorial for nuclear reactor containment during a fuel failure accident case that releases hydrogen gas. Besides, the mixture component of steam-air-hydrogen varies in reactor accident cases, which need simulation and validation keeping parameters of importance. Reviews showed that previous studies for SMR’s PCCCS did not cover the condensation heat transfer (CHT) in the presence of multicomponent NCG mixture parametric computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulation and validation, making a research gap in the SMR design safety. A comprehensive CHT parametric CFD study was performed for SMR PCCS to fill this research gap. This study used experimental data as simulation 3D physics domain inlet and outlet boundary conditions. However, the wall boundary conditions were constant temperature, curve-fit, and annular coolant for verifying the turbulence models. Parametric simulations were performed, verified, and optimized for steam-NCGs mixtures. The multicomponent gases, multiphase mixtures, and fluid film condensation models were applied with associated turbulence models. The results of the parametric study were evaluated for realistic reactor conditions. Results showed that parametric study provided critical insight about the dependency of multicomponent gas mixture parameters that supports reactor safety design, analysis, and licensing.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2021

PUMIPic: A mesh-based approach to unstructured mesh Particle-In-Cell on GPUs

Unstructured mesh particle-in-cell, PIC, simulations executing on the current and next generation of massively parallel systems require new methods for both the mesh and particles to achieve performance and scalability on GPUs. The traditional approach to implementing PIC simulations defines data structures and algorithms in terms of particles with a full copy of the unstructured mesh on every process. To effectively scale the unstructured mesh and particles, mesh-based PIC uses the unstructured mesh as the predominant data structure with the particles stored in terms of the mesh entities. Here, this paper details the PUMIPic library, a framework for developing efficient and performance-portable mesh-based PIC simulations on GPU systems. A pseudo physics simulation based on a five-dimensional gyro-kinetic code for modeling plasma physics is used to examine the performance of PUMIPic. Scaling studies of the unstructured mesh partition and number of particles are performed up to 4096 nodes of the Summit system at Oak Ridge National Laboratory. The studies show that mesh-based PIC can utilize a partitioned mesh and maintain scaling up to system limitations.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2021

The Dark Energy Survey supernova programme: modelling selection efficiency and observed core-collapse supernova contamination

ABSTRACT The analysis of current and future cosmological surveys of Type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia) at high redshift depends on the accurate photometric classification of the SN events detected. Generating realistic simulations of photometric SN surveys constitutes an essential step for training and testing photometric classification algorithms, and for correcting biases introduced by selection effects and contamination arising from core-collapse SNe in the photometric SN Ia samples. We use published SN time-series spectrophotometric templates, rates, luminosity functions, and empirical relationships between SNe and their host galaxies to construct a framework for simulating photometric SN surveys. We present this framework in the context of the Dark Energy Survey (DES) 5-yr photometric SN sample, comparing our simulations of DES with the observed DES transient populations. We demonstrate excellent agreement in many distributions, including Hubble residuals, between our simulations and data. We estimate the core collapse fraction expected in the DES SN sample after selection requirements are applied and before photometric classification. After testing different modelling choices and astrophysical assumptions underlying our simulation, we find that the predicted contamination varies from 7.2 to 11.7 per cent, with an average of 8.8 per cent and an r.m.s. of 1.1 per cent. Our simulations are the first to reproduce the observed photometric SN and host galaxy properties in high-redshift surveys without fine-tuning the input parameters. The simulation methods presented here will be a critical component of the cosmology analysis of the DES photometric SN Ia sample: correcting for biases arising from contamination, and evaluating the associated systematic uncertainty.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Sensitivity of Regional WRF‐Chem Air Quality and Weather Simulations to Biomass‐Burning Emission Data Sets: A Case Study of the Impact of Canadian Wildfire on the US°

This study focuses on the period from June 26 to 29, 2023, when record‐breaking Canadian wildfires severely impacted air quality in the Midwest United States. Using the Weather Research and Forecasting Model with Chemistry (WRF‐Chem) and four biomass‐burning data sets (Fire Inventory from NCAR version 1, Fire Inventory from NCAR version 2.5, Quick Fire Emissions Data set [QFED], and Regional ABI‐VIIRS Emission), we analyzed aerosol transport from Canada to the US and assessed the model's accuracy in predicting PM 2.5 , O 3 , CO and aerosol weather feedback. Model simulations were compared with ground‐based and remote sensing observations as well as field measurements from the Community Research on Climate and Urban Science (CROCUS) project. Our findings show that the movement of a low‐pressure system from the Great Lakes to the Atlantic, combined with the high‐pressure system over the Atlantic, caused the transport of aerosols from Canadian wildfires to the US. Results show WRF‐Chem significantly underestimated key atmospheric components: aerosol optical depth (AOD) by over 50%, PM 2.5 by 65%–90% and peak O 3 concentrations by 50%–55% across four biomass burning data sets. Additionally, CO and NO 2 concentrations were underpredicted. The substantial underestimation of PM 2.5 led to an overestimation of temperature by up to 3.6 °C primarily due to excessive downward shortwave radiation, which resulted from the underestimation of direct aerosol effects and an increase in sensible heat flux. Among the biomass‐burning data sets, QFED produced the most accurate AOD and PM 2.5 predictions due to improved wildfire emission estimates, leading to a 1.0 to 1.5 °C reduction in temperature overestimation during the daytime. These findings underscore the need for improving wildfire emission estimates for trace gases and aerosols to enhance air quality and weather feedback predictions.

WRF-chem model↗
DOE OSTI2021

Data Storage and Visualization Solutions for Real Time Simulations and Experiments

There are multiple challenges in performing real time simulations and real time experiments. Data storage and visualization are challenges that could be solved easily and when solved provide rich and valuable insights into the experiments. In this presentation, we will talk about the National Renewable Energy Laboratory solutions to tackle these issues while running real time experiments and simulations. The NREL team has made these open-source for the community to utilize with real time simulations and experiments.

data storage↗
DOE OSTI2021

Bayesian inference for plasmonic nanometrology

Here, we introduce a Bayesian method for the characterization of plasmonic nanoparticles, which is applicable to both near- and far-field problems. Designed to combine data generated from any photon-plasmon interaction experiment with physically motivated theoretical models, our approach leverages state-of-the-art Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling techniques and returns parameter estimates on nanometric scales. Simulated spectral data sets, describing resonant scattering of photons from ellipsoidal and toroidal nanoparticles, are explored as concrete examples of our approach, with the resulting Bayesian estimates showing excellent agreement with the ground truth, even under conditions of high statistical noise. By incorporating Bayes factors into the method as well, we reveal how model selection can determine which one of competing geometric shapes better explains the observed data. Our comprehensive nanometrology procedure can be tailored to a variety of light-particle interaction models, and its reliance on Bayesian inference furnishes automatic uncertainty quantification. In addition to applicability to a host of plasmonic configurations such as nanoparticle dimers, trimers, and array studies, it is proposed that the presented analysis can be extended to the quantum regime, where nonclassical photon statistics may provide additional insight for inference of scatterer properties.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2025

Electrochemical Characterization of Dissolved Oxides in Molten FLiNaK

Molten fluoride salts have long been the subject of investigation given their application in a variety of industrial processes. Oxides are a common exogeneous impurity within these systems, and can lead to many operational and regulatory concerns. In recent studies, the electro-oxidation of dissolved metallic oxides has been attributed to a single step oxygen evolution reaction despite voltametric evidence suggesting otherwise. Here, we first use square wave voltammetry to confirm that the oxidation of dissolved oxides in fluorides proceeds via a two-electron transfer reaction and then demonstrate that the presence of a peroxide-mediated redox reaction better explains the electrochemical data. Numerical simulations were then used to support the determination of improved diffusion coefficients to enable electroanalytical measurements of the oxide concentration across at a variety of temperatures. A linear Arrhenius relationship was observed when the experimental data was corrected for ohmic resistance effects. Concentration measurements using the corrected square wave voltammetry data demonstrated high accuracy across a large range of concentrations, while the uncorrected data showed plateauing and high errors. In total, this work serves to rectify previously misconstrued electrochemical data of oxides in molten salts and demonstrate how accurate, in situ concentration measurements can be achieved in real-world systems.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Measurement of Neutron Multiplicity in Charged Current Neutrino Interactions on Oxygen

The Accelerator Neutrino Neutron Interaction Experiment (ANNIE) is a 26-ton gadolinium-doped water Cherenkov detector located 100~meters downstream in the Booster Neutrino Beam (BNB) at the Fermi National Accelerator Laboratory (Fermilab). Its primary goals are to (1) measure the neutron yield from $\nu_\mu$ interactions as a function of momentum transfer $Q^2$ so that neutrino-nucleus interaction models can be better constrained, and (2) demonstrate the power of novel, fast-timing detectors with the first deployment of Large Area Picosecond PhotoDetectors (LAPPDs). Current knowledge of neutrino-nucleus interactions fall short in modeling the topologies of such interactions, leading to inaccurate reconstruction of event kinematics such as particle energy, direction, and vertex. As a consequence, the accuracy of cross section measurements is impacted, which is necessary for precise physics measurements. Neutrons are an indication of inelasticity and affect the determination of the energy of the parent neutrino. Quantifying the neutron yield is a step towards reducing the associated uncertainties, and thus improving our understanding of these complex interactions and benefiting the next generation of long-baseline neutrino experiments. ANNIE will make use of LAPPDs to measure neutron multiplicity of CC-0$\pi$ $\nu_\mu$ interactions on oxygen, making it the first experiment to deploy an array of these photodetectors. Because the LAPPD is a novel photodetection technology, much customization is required to integrate it into existing electronics. The first half of this thesis covers the significant progress made towards the first deployment of the LAPPD system. From its test stand at Fermilab, the LAPPD system was systematically tested and put together until deployment readiness was achieved. I present my contributions to the design, fabrication, and testing of the waterproof housing and cables, and the commissioning of the LVHV board that powers the LAPPD and its readout electronics. These efforts brought the LAPPD system significantly closer to deployment, and eventually first data. The second half of this thesis presents the vertex and energy reconstruction algorithms developed to analysis the beam data with PMT-only information. While much progress has been made towards the deployment of LAPPDs, with several in the detector tank, efforts to integrate the LAPPD datastream are in progress. Thus, I developed a ring edge detection technique using PMT data to fit the muon vertex and determine its energy. The analysis in this thesis finds average neutron yields of $\Bar{n}_{data} = 0.452 \pm 0.039 (\text{stat}) \pm 0.27 (\text{sys})$ for a selection of muon neutrino candidates in the fiducial volume of ANNIE and corrected with an averaged neutron detection efficiency. An equivalent analysis for simulated beam data results in an average neutron yield of $\Bar{n}_{MC} = 0.582 \pm 0.018 (\text{stat}) \pm 0.25 (\text{sys})$. Future work includes application of efficiency corrections at a positional level, quantification of all systematic uncertainties, and neutron multiplicity measurements with other event topologies.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Data-driven linear time advance operators for the acceleration of plasma physics simulation

In this study, we demonstrate the application of data-driven linear operator construction for time advance with a goal of accelerating plasma physics simulation. We apply dynamic mode decomposition (DMD) to data produced by the nonlinear SOLPS-ITER (Scrape-off Layer Plasma Simulator - International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor) plasma boundary code suite in order to estimate a series of linear operators and monitor their predictive accuracy via online error analysis. We find that this approach defines when these dynamics can be represented by a sequence of approximate linear operators and is essential for providing consistent projections when compared to an unconstrained application. For linear diffusion and advection–diffusion fluid test problems, we construct and apply operators within explicit and implicit time advance schemes, demonstrating that stability can be robustly guaranteed in each case. We further investigate the use of the linear time advance operators within several integration methods including forward Euler, backward Euler, and the matrix exponential. The application of this method to simulation data from SOLPS-ITER, with varying levels of Markov chain Monte Carlo numerical noise, shows that constrained DMD operators yield a capability to identify, extract, and integrate a (slow) subset of the present timescales. Example applications show that for projected speedup factors of [Formula: see text], and [Formula: see text], a mean relative error of 3%, 5%, and 8% and maximum relative error less than 20% are achievable, which appears acceptable for typical SOLPS-ITER steady-state simulations.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Identifying Bayesian optimal experiments for uncertain biochemical pathway models

Abstract Pharmacodynamic (PD) models are mathematical models of cellular reaction networks that include drug mechanisms of action. These models are useful for studying predictive therapeutic outcomes of novel drug therapies in silico. However, PD models are known to possess significant uncertainty with respect to constituent parameter data, leading to uncertainty in the model predictions. Furthermore, experimental data to calibrate these models is often limited or unavailable for novel pathways. In this study, we present a Bayesian optimal experimental design approach for improving PD model prediction accuracy. We then apply our method using simulated experimental data to account for uncertainty in hypothetical laboratory measurements. This leads to a probabilistic prediction of drug performance and a quantitative measure of which prospective laboratory experiment will optimally reduce prediction uncertainty in the PD model. The methods proposed here provide a way forward for uncertainty quantification and guided experimental design for models of novel biological pathways.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Double-differential Measurements of Mesonless Charged-current Muon Neutrino Interactions on Argon with Final-State Protons using the MicroBooNE Detector

This note reports the first double-differential measurements of charged-current $ν_µ$ scattering on argon leading to final states containing zero mesons and one or more protons. This event topology (hereafter abbreviated as CC0$πNp$) is the most common at the neutrino energies typically produced by the Fermilab Booster Neutrino Beam. A detailed understanding of neutrino-argon scattering in the CC0$πNp$ channel is therefore crucial for the success of the precision neutrino oscillation analyses planned for the Short-Baseline Neutrino (SBN) program. This remains true for the upcoming Deep Underground Neutrino Experiment (DUNE), but the higher mean neutrino energy used there will ensure that more inelastic reaction modes, such as single pion production, will also play a major role. The analysis described in this note builds on a previous MicroBooNE study of the CC0$πNp$ channel which obtained the first single-differential cross-section measurements on an argon target. Since that foundational work, significant improvements have been made to MicroBooNE’s simulation software, event reconstruction algorithms, and procedure for calculating systematic uncertainties. When combined with a larger dataset (corresponding to a beam exposure of 6.79 × 10 20 protons-on-target versus 1.60 × 10 20 in Ref. [3]), these enhancements allow the important CC0$πNp$ channel to be studied in more detail. This note begins with a description of the data and simulation samples used as input to the analysis. Section 3 then defines the CC0$πNp$ signal event topology, and Section 4 describes a set of selection criteria designed to identify these events in MicroBooNE data. Binning schemes are then defined in Section 5 for two double-differential measurements of event rates. The first of these considers the momentum and scattering cosine of the outgoing muon, while the second reports the same observables for the leading proton, i.e., the final-state proton with the largest momentum. After a discussion of systematic uncertainties in Section 6, the note concludes by comparing the predictions of MicroBooNE Monte Carlo (MC) simulations to the measured double-differential distributions. These results will form the basis for a future extraction of flux-averaged double-differential CC0$πNp$ cross sections that will be immediately comparable to the theoretical predictions of multiple neutrino event generators. The selection described herein may also be used to study various other observables in CC0$πNp$ events, including those which are sensitive to correlations between leptonic and hadronic kinematics in the final state.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2023

An effective air–liquid contactor for CO 2 direct air capture using aqueous solvents

Here, the development of a cost-effective, corrosion resistant, high-flux direct air capture (HiDAC) contactor for a solvent-based direct air capture (DAC) process is reported. Literature technoeconomic analyses suggest that the air–liquid contactor can cost over 20 % of the overall DAC plant’s annualized capital costs. To bring down the overall cost of DAC, it is imperative that an effective contactor is developed. A hybrid contactor consisting of a commercial polyvinylchloride structured packing enhanced with stainless-steel 410 random packing has been developed to provide a high surface area for air–liquid contact. The contactor geometry, wettability, corrosion resistance, pressure drop, along with its CO 2 uptake efficiency, CO 2 uptake rates, and extended loading potential using potassium sarcosinate solutions are investigated. Results show that the HiDAC contactor has a relatively high specific surface area (885 m 2 /m 3 ), which allows for CO 2 uptake efficiencies of up to 75 % and capture rates of up to 550 g of CO 2 per day for a 0.3 × 0.25 × 0.3 m contactor. The contactor also exhibits high levels of wettability and corrosion resistance with amino acid-based DAC solvents. A CO 2 uptake model was developed, and modeling results are compared to experimental data to simulate and predict the performance of the contactor in a DAC process using potassium sarcosinate solvent. The system’s overall mass transfer coefficient and theoretical pressure drop were also calculated, and these results were compared to DAC data found in literature. The results presented indicate that the HiDAC contactor is well suited for DAC due to its high specific surface area, resistance to corrosion, and high degree of wettability.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2021

Modeling of carbon pellets disruption mitigation in an NSTX-U plasma

Single carbon pellet disruption mitigation simulations using M3D-C1 were conducted for an NSTX-U-like plasma to support the electromagnetic pellet injection concept (EPI). A carbon ablation model has been implemented in M3D-C1 and tested with available data. 2D simulations were conducted in order to estimate the amount of carbon needed to quench the plasma, finding that the content in a 1 mm radius vitreous carbon pellet (~3.2x10E20 atoms) would be enough if it is entirely ablated. 3D simulations were performed, scanning over pellet velocity and parallel thermal conductivity, as well as different injection directions and pellet concepts (solid pellets and shell pellets). The sensitivity of the thermal quench and other related quantities to these parameters has been evaluated. A 1 mm radius solid pellet only partially ablates at velocities of 300 m/s or higher, thus being unable to fully quench the plasma. To further enhance the ablation, approximations to an array of pellets and the shell pellet concept were also explored. 3D field line stochastization plays an important role in both quenching the center of the plasma and in heat flux losses, thus lowering the amount of carbon needed to mitigate the plasma when compared to the 2D case. This study constitutes an important step forward in `predict-first' simulations for disruption mitigation in NSTX-U and other devices, such as ITER.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Modeling strategies and data needs for representing coastal wetland vegetation in land surface models

Vegetated coastal ecosystems sequester carbon rapidly relative to terrestrial ecosystems. Coastal wetlands are poorly represented in land surface models, but work is underway to improve process-based, predictive modeling of these ecosystems. Here, in this work, we identify guiding questions, potential simulations, and data needs to make progress in improving representation of vegetation in terrestrial–aquatic interfaces, with a focus on coastal and estuarine ecosystems. We synthesize relevant plant traits and environmental controls on vegetation that influence carbon cycling in coastal ecosystems. We propose that models include separate plant functional types (PFTs) for mangroves, graminoid salt marshes, and succulent salt marshes to adequately represent the variation in aboveground and belowground productivity between common coastal wetland vegetation types. We also discuss the drivers and carbon storage consequences of shifts in dominant PFTs. We suggest several potential approaches to represent the diversity in vegetation tolerance and adaptations to fluctuations in salinity and water level, which drive key gradients in coastal wetland ecosystems. Finally, we discuss data needs for parameterizing and evaluating model implementations of coastal wetland vegetation types and function.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Comparing multi-source urban flood indicators: satellite, simulation, and citizen-reported data

Urban flooding arises from complex mechanisms, making it challenging to capture accurately with a single detection method. This study evaluates three complementary approaches to detect flooding across three Chicago neighborhoods: (i) Sentinel-1 synthetic aperture radar (SAR), offering weather-independent, high-resolution (10 m) imagery of surface inundation; (ii) the storm water management model (SWMM), simulating combined sewer overflow and drainage performance; and (iii) citizen-generated 311 service requests, capturing observed flooding impacts. By analyzing six storms ranging from severe to mild, we examine how each source uniquely contributes to identifying urban flood events. SAR imagery effectively identifies standing water but can miss brief flooding due to satellite revisit constraints. SWMM provides detailed insights into system-wide drainage behavior yet may underestimate localized street-level flooding. Meanwhile, 311 calls reflect real-world flooding impacts but are vulnerable to underreporting. Statistical overlap analysis highlights chronic flood hotspots repeatedly identified across multiple detection methods, indicating persistent infrastructure and topographic vulnerabilities. Temporal analysis further reveals that while SWMM flooding aligns closely with rainfall peaks, 311 calls typically precede or persist beyond these peaks. Our findings emphasize the value of using satellite observations, hydrological modeling, and resident-reported data in a complementary manner to better interpret patterns in flood timing, severity, and spatial distribution—providing insights that can inform targeted infrastructure improvements and contribute to urban flood resilience planning.

311↗
DOE OSTI2025

How initial conditions-, structural-, and parameter-based model uncertainty interact and influence predictions in permafrost ecosystems: Modeling Archive

This dataset contains model output and input data, as well as source code examples for the Terrestrial Ecosystem Model with the Dynamic Vegetation Model and Dynamic Organic Soil (DVM-DOS-TEM) for the field sites Imnavait creek and the Bonanza creek Long Term Ecological Research Network (LTER). The data covers simulations from the last glacial maximum (LGM) until 2100 for a selection of paleo scenarios, setting the mean temperature of the LGM up to 10°C lower than pre-industrial conditions. The model structure was modulated to represent various model versions, and this dataset contains the relevant changes in the source code. The raw output data, the processed statistical data, the setup and processing scripts as well as parameter value distribution files from a parameter sensitivity analysis are included as well. Model outputs include active layer depth, organic soil carbon, soil layer depths, gross primary productivity (GPP) with and without nitrogen limitation, net primary productivity (NPP), soil liquid water content, heterotrophic, maintenance, and growth respiration, soil temperature, and vegetation carbon (*.nc files). The Next-Generation Ecosystem Experiments in the Arctic (NGEE Arctic) project is a research effort to reduce uncertainty in the Department of Energy’s Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) by developing a predictive understanding of Arctic tundra ecosystems underlain by permafrost and to quantify feedbacks from the Arctic tundra to the Earth system. NGEE Arctic is supported by the Department of Energy's Office of Biological and Environmental Research.Over Phases 1–3, observations made by the NGEE Arctic team across a gradient of permafrost landscapes in Arctic Alaska improved the representation of tundra processes in the land surface component of E3SM (the E3SM Land Model, ELM). Model improvements emphasized unique aspects of permafrost environments and explored reductions in model complexity while retaining predictive power. The Arctic-informed ELM developed by NGEE Arctic has been used to make novel predictions on processes ranging from permafrost thaw to soil biogeochemical cycling to Earth system feedbacks associated with the unique characteristics of tundra plants. In Phase 4, the NGEE Arctic team is evaluating our new predictive understanding under novel conditions across the Arctic domain. In collaboration with partners at long-term pan-Arctic research sites we are examining whether an Arctic-informed ELM can faithfully simulate interactions among surface and subsurface processes at site, regional, and pan-Arctic scales. In turn, we are using variety of tools to dynamically extend and evaluate ELM inference, with an emphasis on data synthesis and pan-Arctic model evaluation, reintegration of code with an evolving E3SM, scaling across heterogeneous Arctic landscapes, and the appropriate representation of the impacts of increasingly frequent Arctic disturbances.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗