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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2017

Global synthesis of the temperature sensitivity of leaf litter breakdown in streams and rivers

Streams and rivers are important conduits of terrestrially derived carbon (C) to atmospheric and marine reservoirs. Leaf litter breakdown rates are expected to increase as water temperatures rise in response to climate change. The magnitude of increase in breakdown rates is uncertain, given differences in litter quality and microbial and detritivore community responses to temperature, factors that can influence the apparent temperature sensitivity of breakdown and the relative proportion of C lost to the atmosphere vs. stored or transported downstream. We synthesized 1025 records of litter breakdown in streams and rivers to quantify its temperature sensitivity, as measured by the activation energy (Ea, in eV). Temperature sensitivity of litter breakdown varied among twelve plant genera for which Ea could be calculated. Higher values of Ea were correlated with lower-quality litter, but these correlations were influenced by a single, N-fixing genus (Alnus). Ea values converged when genera were classified into three breakdown rate categories, potentially due to continual water availability in streams and rivers modulating the influence of leaf chemistry on breakdown. Across all data representing 85 plant genera, the Ea was 0.34 ± 0.04 eV, or approximately half the value (0.65 eV) predicted by metabolic theory. Our results indicate that average breakdown rates may increase by 5–21% with a 1–4 °C rise in water temperature, rather than a 10–45% increase expected, according to metabolic theory. Differential warming of tropical and temperate biomes could result in a similar proportional increase in breakdown rates, despite variation in Ea values for these regions (0.75 ± 0.13 eV and 0.27 ± 0.05 eV, respectively). The relative proportions of gaseous C loss and organic matter transport downstream should not change with rising temperature given that Ea values for breakdown mediated by microbes alone and microbes plus detritivores were similar at the global scale.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Substrate availability and not thermal acclimation controls microbial temperature sensitivity response to long-term warming

Microbes are responsible for cycling carbon (C) through soils, and predicted changes in soil C stocks under climate change are highly sensitive to shifts in the mechanisms assumed to control the microbial physiological response to warming. Two mechanisms have been suggested to explain the long-term warming impact on microbial physiology: microbial thermal acclimation and changes in the quantity and quality of substrates available for microbial metabolism. Yet studies disentangling these two mechanisms are lacking. To resolve the drivers of changes in microbial physiology in response to long-term warming, we sampled soils from 13- and 28-year-old soil warming experiments in different seasons. We performed short-term laboratory incubations across a range of temperatures to measure the relationships between temperature sensitivity of physiology (growth, respiration, carbon use efficiency, and extracellular enzyme activity) and the chemical composition of soil organic matter. We observed apparent thermal acclimation of microbial respiration, but only in summer, when warming had exacerbated the seasonally-induced, already small dissolved organic matter pools. Irrespective of warming, greater quantity and quality of soil carbon increased the extracellular enzymatic pool and its temperature sensitivity. We propose that fresh litter input into the system seasonally cancels apparent thermal acclimation of C-cycling processes to decadal warming. Our findings reveal that long-term warming has indirectly affected microbial physiology via reduced C availability in this system, implying that earth system models including these negative feedbacks may be best suited to describe long-term warming effects on these soils.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2014

WE-D-BRE-07: Variance-Based Sensitivity Analysis to Quantify the Impact of Biological Uncertainties in Particle Therapy

Purpose: In particle therapy, treatment planning and evaluation are frequently based on biological models to estimate the relative biological effectiveness (RBE) or the equivalent dose in 2 Gy fractions (EQD2). In the context of the linear-quadratic model, these quantities depend on biological parameters (α, β) for ions as well as for the reference radiation and on the dose per fraction. The needed biological parameters as well as their dependency on ion species and ion energy typically are subject to large (relative) uncertainties of up to 20–40% or even more. Therefore it is necessary to estimate the resulting uncertainties in e.g. RBE or EQD2 caused by the uncertainties of the relevant input parameters. Methods: We use a variance-based sensitivity analysis (SA) approach, in which uncertainties in input parameters are modeled by random number distributions. The evaluated function is executed 10{sup 4} to 10{sup 6} times, each run with a different set of input parameters, randomly varied according to their assigned distribution. The sensitivity S is a variance-based ranking (from S = 0, no impact, to S = 1, only influential part) of the impact of input uncertainties. The SA approach is implemented for carbon ion treatment plans on 3D patient data, providing information about variations (and their origin) in RBE and EQD2. Results: The quantification enables 3D sensitivity maps, showing dependencies of RBE and EQD2 on different input uncertainties. The high number of runs allows displaying the interplay between different input uncertainties. The SA identifies input parameter combinations which result in extreme deviations of the result and the input parameter for which an uncertainty reduction is the most rewarding. Conclusion: The presented variance-based SA provides advantageous properties in terms of visualization and quantification of (biological) uncertainties and their impact. The method is very flexible, model independent, and enables a broad assessment of uncertainties. Supported by DFG grant WI 3745/1-1 and DFG cluster of excellence: Munich-Centre for Advanced Photonics.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2016

Sensitivity of the diagnostic radiological index of protection to procedural factors in fluoroscopy

Purpose: To evaluate the sensitivity of the diagnostic radiological index of protection (DRIP), used to quantify the protective value of radioprotective garments, to procedural factors in fluoroscopy in an effort to determine an appropriate set of scatter-mimicking primary beams to be used in measuring the DRIP. Methods: Monte Carlo simulations were performed to determine the shape of the scattered x-ray spectra incident on the operator in different clinical fluoroscopy scenarios, including interventional radiology and interventional cardiology (IC). Two clinical simulations studied the sensitivity of the scattered spectrum to gantry angle and patient size, while technical factors were varied according to measured automatic dose rate control (ADRC) data. Factorial simulations studied the sensitivity of the scattered spectrum to gantry angle, field of view, patient size, and beam quality for constant technical factors. Average energy (E{sub avg}) was the figure of merit used to condense fluence in each energy bin to a single numerical index. Results: Beam quality had the strongest influence on the scattered spectrum in fluoroscopy. Many procedural factors affect the scattered spectrum indirectly through their effect on primary beam quality through ADRC, e.g., gantry angle and patient size. Lateral C-arm rotation, common in IC, increased the energy of the scattered spectrum, regardless of the direction of rotation. The effect of patient size on scattered radiation depended on ADRC characteristics, patient size, and procedure type. Conclusions: The scattered spectrum striking the operator in fluoroscopy is most strongly influenced by primary beam quality, particularly kV. Use cases for protective garments should be classified by typical procedural primary beam qualities, which are governed by the ADRC according to the impacts of patient size, anatomical location, and gantry angle.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2016

SU-F-J-40: Evaluation of Sensitivity of the Automatic Matching Between Cone-Beam CT Image and Simulation CT Image in TrueBeam 2.0 Imaging System 6DoF Considering Different Uncertainty Sources

Purpose: To estimate the sensitivity of TrueBeam 2.0 Imaging System 6DoF automatic matching tool through the acquisition of cone-beam CT images in different phantoms applying submillimeter translations and rotations of tenths of a degree and registered with image simulation CT. Methods: To evaluate overall system-wide image, we consider two uncertainties source; First, the uncertainty of the manual phantom displacement (ε-m). This uncertainty is calculated by a digital caliper (0.01 mm) for vertical (Vrt), lateral (Lat) and longitudinal (Lng). A digital inclinometer (0.01°) for the pitch and roll and the own phantom scale to evaluate the coordinate rotation (Rtn). The second uncertainty is the displacement detected by the algorithm system of matching (σ-d) that we obtain from the standard deviations of the different measurements. We use three different phantoms. The BrainLab Radiosurgery system for supporting masks with an anthropomorphic dummy adapted to allow displacements of 0.1 mm in Vrt, Lat and Lng dimensions and rotations of 0.1° in Pitch dimension. For the analysis of the Rtn and Roll dimensions we use two homemade phantoms (RinoRot and RinoRoll, La Fe Hospital, Valencia, Spain) that allow rotations of 0.3°. Results: In the case of manual displacement of 0.10 ± 0.03 mm in the translations, the system detect 0.10 ± 0.07 mm, 0.12 ± 0.07 mm and 0.13 ± 0.07 mm (mean ± SD) in Lat, Vrt and Lng respectively. In the case of rotational dimension, manual displacement of 0.3 ± 0.1° was detected with 0.19 ± 0.06°, 0.29 ± 0.03° and 0.27 ± 0.06° in Pitch, Roll and Rtn. Conclusion: We conclude that the sensitivity of the automatic matching system is within 0.10 mm in translations and 0.3° in rotations. These values are under the own sensitivity of the software.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2016

WE-DE-201-11: Sensitivity and Specificity of Verification Methods Based On Total Reference Air Kerma (TRAK) Or On User Provided Dose Points for Graphically Planned Skin HDR Brachytherapy

Purpose: To investigate the sensitivity and specificity of a novel verification methodology for image-guided skin HDR brachytherapy plans using a TRAK-based reasonableness test, compared to a typical manual verification methodology. Methods: Two methodologies were used to flag treatment plans necessitating additional review due to a potential discrepancy of 3 mm between planned dose and clinical target in the skin. Manual verification was used to calculate the discrepancy between the average dose to points positioned at time of planning representative of the prescribed depth and the expected prescription dose. Automatic verification was used to calculate the discrepancy between TRAK of the clinical plan and its expected value, which was calculated using standard plans with varying curvatures, ranging from flat to cylindrically circumferential. A plan was flagged if a discrepancy >10% was observed. Sensitivity and specificity were calculated using as a criteria for true positive that >10% of plan dwells had a distance to prescription dose >1 mm different than prescription depth (3 mm + size of applicator). All HDR image-based skin brachytherapy plans treated at our institution in 2013 were analyzed. Results: 108 surface applicator plans to treat skin of the face, scalp, limbs, feet, hands or abdomen were analyzed. Median number of catheters was 19 (range, 4 to 71) and median number of dwells was 257 (range, 20 to 1100). Sensitivity/specificity were 57%/78% for manual and 70%/89% for automatic verification. Conclusion: A check based on expected TRAK value is feasible for irregularly shaped, image-guided skin HDR brachytherapy. This test yielded higher sensitivity and specificity than a test based on the identification of representative points, and can be implemented with a dedicated calculation code or with pre-calculated lookup tables of ideally shaped, uniform surface applicators.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Microbial Interactions Related to N 2 O Emissions and Temperature Sensitivity from Rice Paddy Fields

The soil microbiome is a driver of nitrous oxide (N 2 O) emissions in terrestrial ecosystems. Identifying the core microbiome of N 2 O emissions and its temperature sensitivity from trillions of soil microorganisms is a great challenge and is essential to improving the predictability of soil-climate feedback related to increasing temperature. Here, the integrated soil microbiome covering archaeal, bacterial, fungal, algal, and microfaunal communities was studied to disengage the potential linkage with its N 2 O emissions and its temperature sensitivity in paddy fields by hunting for core species pairs. The results showed that between-group interactions of core bacterial and archaeal members and the within-group interactions of core bacterial members jointly contributed to the N 2 O emissions and its temperature sensitivity. The contribution of between-group interactions (32 to 33%) was greater than that of within groups (10 to 18%). These results suggested that N 2 O emissions and their fluctuations related to climate warming are affected by the within- and between-group interactions of the soil microbiome. Our results help advance the knowledge on the importance of microbial keystone species and network associations in controlling N 2 O production and their responses to increasing temperature.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2013

Study of the effect of the acid-base surface properties of ZnO, Fe{sub 2}O{sub 3} and ZnFe{sub 2}O{sub 4} oxides on their gas sensitivity to ethanol vapor

Binary (ZnO, Fe{sub 2}O{sub 3}) and ternary (ZnFe{sub 2}O{sub 4}) gas-sensitive oxide materials are synthesized, and the correlation between their sensitivity to ethanol vapor and the functional chemical composition of the surface is studied by X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy and by the technique of the adsorption of acid-base indicators. It is found that the sensitivity to ethanol increases with increasing content of Broensted acid sites with the acidity index pK{sub a} Almost-Equal-To 2.5 and with increasing percentage of surface oxygen involved in OH/CO{sub 3}/C-O groups. This interrelation is attributed to the specific features of interaction between ethanol molecules and hydroxyl groups on the surface of the oxides.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2017

Long-wavelength sensitivity limit in MBE-grown PbSnTe:In films: Correlation with the film structure and composition

PbSnTe:In films with a long-wavelength sensitivity limit of over 20 μm and low “dark” conductivity are studied. The spectral dependences of the photoconductivity obtained at different temperatures using a Fourier spectrometer are compared with data on the film composition determined by X-ray microanalysis. The established nonmonotonic temperature dependence of the long-wavelength sensitivity limit is attributed to the combination of the temperature dependence of the PbSnTe band gap and the Burstein–Moss effect making the largest contribution to low-temperature measurements due to the long lifetime of excess charge carriers. It is shown that the difference between the band-gap values determined from the measured composition and temperature dependences of the long-wavelength sensitivity limit can be related to the inhomogeneity of the composition of the films grown by molecular beam epitaxy.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2023

Enabling Hyper-Differential Sensitivity Analysis for Ill-Posed Inverse Problems

Inverse problems constrained by partial differential equations (PDEs) play a critical role in model development and calibration. In many applications, there are multiple uncertain parameters in a model that must be estimated. However, high dimensionality of the parameters and computational complexity of the PDE solves make such problems challenging. A common approach is to reduce the dimension by fixing some parameters (which we will call auxiliary parameters) to a best estimate and use techniques from PDE-constrained optimization to estimate the other parameters. In this article, hyper-differential sensitivity analysis (HDSA) is used to assess the sensitivity of the solution of the PDE-constrained optimization problem to changes in the auxiliary parameters. Foundational assumptions for HDSA require satisfaction of the optimality conditions which are not always practically feasible as a result of ill-posedness in the inverse problem. Here we introduce novel theoretical and computational approaches to justify and enable HDSA for ill-posed inverse problems by projecting the sensitivities on likelihood informed subspaces and defining a posteriori updates. Our proposed framework is demonstrated on a nonlinear multiphysics inverse problem motivated by estimation of spatially heterogeneous material properties in the presence of spatially distributed parametric modeling uncertainties.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Quantifying the Uncertainty of the Future Hydrological Impacts of Climate Change: Comparative Analysis of an Advanced Hierarchical Sensitivity in Humid and Semiarid Basins

Comparison and quantification of different uncertainties of future climate change involved in the modeling of a hydrological system are highly important for both hydrological modelers and policy-makers. However, few studies have accurately estimated the relative importance of different sources of uncertainty at different spatiotemporal scales. Here, a hierarchical sensitivity analysis framework (HSAF) incorporated with a variance-based global sensitivity analysis is developed to quantify the spatiotemporal contributions of different uncertainties in hydrological impacts of climate change in two different climatic (humid and semiarid) basins in China. The uncertainty sources include three emission scenarios (ESs), 20 global climate models (GCs), three hydrological models (HMs), and the associated sensitive hydrological parameters (PAs) screened and sampled by the Morris and Latin hypercube sampling methods, respectively. Further, the results indicate that the overall trend of uncertainty is PA > HM > GC > ES, but their uncertainties have discrepancies in projections of different hydrological variables. The HM uncertainty in annual and monthly discharge projections is generally larger than the PA uncertainty in the humid basin than semiarid basin. The PA has greater uncertainty in extreme hydrological event (annual peak discharge) projections than in annual discharge projections for both basins (particularly for the humid basin), but contributes larger uncertainty to annual and monthly discharge projections in the semiarid basin than humid basin. The GC contributes larger uncertainty in all the hydrological variables projections in the humid basin than semiarid basin, while the ES uncertainty is rather limited in both basins. Overall, our results suggest there is greater spatiotemporal variability of hydrological uncertainty in more arid regions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Sensitivity analysis of small modular reactor mPower with ATHLET

Small modular reactor (SMR) possesses the characteristics of less radioactive source term, simpler structure, modular design and features like passive safety as well as low risk of proliferation. Developed and designed by Babcock and Wilcox, the mPower reactor is one of pronouncing small modular reactors that adopts the integrated design of the pressurized water reactor, steam generator and a built-in internal control rod drive mechanism. In this paper, the code ATHLET (Analysis of fossil-hydraulics of Leaks and Transients) is used to model the mPower reactor. At the same time, the sensitivity analysis of the core structure and geometric parameters of the pipeline loop, as well as the steady-state simulation and post-exothermic simulation are carried out depending on the given scenarios. In addition, the sensitivity analysis of pressure, temperature and mass flow in the secondary loop is performed. The results of this study will mitigate some of the frequent misunderstanding in the field and will help to better understand the design of SMR and provide basic research data for further research. However, there are limitations in the current research. Considering that the mPower is still in the conceptual design, the established model is only based on the limited public data while detailed parameters are still in myth, which leads to certain level of uncertainties in the calculation. Besides, the research is mainly on the influence of sensitivity analysis under steady state conditions. (authors)

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Adjoint sensitivity analysis and data assimilation for verification of dry storage cask contents

Dry cask storage is a method for interim storage of spent fuel assemblies which contain fissile isotopes of uranium and plutonium. These can present a proliferation concern and consequently there is a need for non-destructive testing methods to verify a dry cask's contents for proliferation protection. We present an application of adjoint sensitivity analysis and data assimilation to a multigroup diffusion model of dry cask storage. Adjoint sensitivity analysis allows the efficient calculation of sensitivities for use in data assimilation to calibrate imprecisely known parameter values and data consistency tests to detect diversion scenarios. (authors)

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Hierarchical Data Format for Nuclear Data Sensitivities [Slides]

An HDF5-based file format was introduced for the sensitivity data calculated by TSUNAMI. The format was defined to collect the sensitivity coefficients into hyperslabs, which optimizes file reading time and therefore improves the time-to-solution for applications. In future work, this format will be extended to store sensitivity data for depletion calculations.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Sensitivity of Near-Surface Variables in the RUC Land Surface Model in the Weather Research and Forecasting Model

In this study, we investigate the parametric sensitivity of near-surface variables, such as sensible heat flux, latent heat flux, ground heat flux, hub-height wind speed and land surface temperature, to the parameters used in the Rapid Update Cycle (RUC) land surface model (LSM) during a wintertime and summertime period. The model simulations are compared with observations collected from the second Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP2) field campaign. The results suggest that parameters related to snow/ice and thermal processes can have significant impact on the simulated near-surface variables. Out of the 11 examined parameters, only 6 of them have considerable influences on the model behaviors and explain about 60 ~ 80 % of the estimated total variance of the simulated variables. In addition, the magnitude of the parametric sensitivity varies with season. For instance, parameters associated with snow/ice processes are dominant during the wintertime whereas those associated with thermal processes are more important during the summertime. Furthermore, the impact of the identified parameters on the simulated variables is highly related to the topography. There is a high degree of sensitivity to the parameter values over the slope region. This points out the importance of collecting field observations over steep areas to better quantity the appropriate values of key parameters. Overall, our findings provide a better understanding of the RUC LSM behavior associated with parameter uncertainties and can be used to improve the forecasting skill of land surface processes via calibration of the most uncertain model parameters.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Sensitivity Analysis of Irradiated Fueled Experiments using the MOOSE Framework [Slides]

Modeling and simulation (M&S) methods are able to predict uncertainties in experimental parameters (e.g., power and fission density) during irradiation. A shortfall exists in predicting how sensitive some of the parameters will behave during the experimental process. Sensitivity and Uncertainty Quantification (SUQ) is critical in support of qualification and licensing reactor fuels. The application of a method to quantify the uncertainty in these experiments is critical to the prediction of their performance. In this work, we propose the use of a polynomial chaos expansion (PCE) method to quantify the sensitive parameters in these simulations and, in an extension, their experimental surrogates. We propose to perform M&S using PCE uncertainty quantification on a previously irradiated fueled experiment in order to provide a validation case for Griffin and expand its use as a verification and validation (V&V) tool for experiments with a neutronics component. Griffin is an advanced, deterministic neutronics analysis code built using the MOOSE (multiphysics object-oriented simulation environment) framework which can provide state-of-the-art neutronic analysis on M&S of experiments. We will use the stochastic tools module (STM) in MOOSE to provide PCE uncertainty quantification on the proposed experimental setup. Idaho National Laboratory (INL) does not yet have an in-house developed code with V&V approval for experiments performed on-site; this work would provide a necessary addition of support for experiments performed at INL. The Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) has explicitly requested uncertainties in calculated values such as fuel power and burnup, and the development of this capability would benefit the relationship between INL and the NRC.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Prompt Phrase Ordering Using Large Language Models in HPC: Evaluating Prompt Sensitivity

Large language models (LLMs) have demonstrated effective performance in domain-specific tasks, often requiring a well-designed prompt to guide their responses. However, optimizing the right prompt is challenging due to prompt sensitivity—the phenomenon where small changes in the prompt can lead to significant variations in performance. In this study, we evaluate prompt performance by examining all permutations of independent phrases to investigate prompt sensitivity and robustness. We used two datasets: the GSM8k dataset, which assesses mathematical reasoning, and a custom template prompt for summarizing database metadata. Our goal was to evaluate the performance across all permutations of a sequence of prompt phrases. The study was conducted using the llama3-instruct- 7B model hosted on Ollama, with computations parallelized in a high-performance computing environment. By comparing the average index of phrases in the best and worst-performing prompts, we found that the order of independent phrases within a prompt significantly impacts LLM performance. Additionally, we used Hamming distance to assess changes between phrase orderings, concluding that prompt modifications can dramatically affect scores, often by almost random chance. These findings support existing research on prompt sensitivity. We discuss the challenges of prompt optimization, noting that altering phrases in a successful prompt does not always result in another successful prompt.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Multifidelity Approach to Sensitivity Estimation in Large-Eddy Simulation

A novel approach to compute affordable approximate sensitivities in a large-eddy simulation (LES) is proposed and assessed. The approach is based on solving a Reynolds-averaged Navier–Stokes (RANS) problem that has been linearized around the mean LES solution, with closure modeling required for the linearized changes in turbulent Reynolds stresses. In the present study, the closure modeling is based on a linearized algebraic turbulence model. The method is assessed for the flow over a NACA0012 airfoil at a fixed angle of attack, with the Reynolds number as the variable parameter. The results show that, provided an accurate linearized closure model, the method predicts the correct sensitivity of the skin friction coefficient and the mean velocity field at the cost of a linearized RANS, which provides an important proof-of-concept for this approach. Here, the linearized algebraic turbulence model with standard model coefficients produces a reasonably accurate sensitivity, but the results also suggest that accuracy could be gained from recalibrating the model coefficients for this new use of the model.

42 ENGINEERING↗