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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2016

Risk Assessment in Event Evaluation P-302

Incidents at locations such as nuclear power plants, waste repositories, and medical treatment facilities occur at many different times and under a variety of situations. Even the most modern, well run organizations may experience events that are precursors to more serious situations. Currently, the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission evaluates a variety of such events at commercial nuclear plants via the Significance Determination Process (SDP), Management Directive 8.3, and the Accident Sequence Precursor (ASP) program. In these programs, the analyst calculates a conditional risk measure (e.g., conditional core damage probability) for an initiating event situation or an unplanned equipment outage. This calculation is called an “event evaluation.” An “event evaluation” uses a probabilistic risk assessment model to obtain a risk measure that is conditional on the situation which existed during an incident. The Risk Assessment in Event Evaluation material is intended to address how this evaluation is performed using modern risk analysis tools.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗
DOE OSTI2019

Technical Maturity Assessment of Risk-Informed Safety Analysis Tools

Ensuring maximum safety while enhancing economic benefit is one of most important goal of In the of US Light Water Reactor Sustainability (LWRS) program. Optimization of the safety margins will provide best practice to achieve this goal which can also lead to cost reduction. Under the LWRS framework, the Risk-Informed Systems Analysis (RISA) Pathway has been focusing on the optimization of safety margin and minimization of uncertainties to ensure both safety and economics at the highest level. One of the important activities of the pathway is to deploy risk-informed analysis tools to related nuclear industry to support precise representation of safety margins and factors that contribute to cost and safety. The tools therefore need highest technical maturity so that industry can use immediately with strong credibility. The tools should have a capability to support risk-informed decision making for both probabilistic and deterministic elements of safety. The RISA Pathway, therefore, have been performing a comprehensive assessment of technical maturity and verification and validation (V&V) status of selected tools to improve adaptability to the industry. The technical maturity assessment includes three work scope: (a) define requirements based on risk-informed concept; (b) investigate and review development and V&V status for technical maturity assessment; and (c) identify technical gap and propose improvement to meet RISA toolkit requirements. The Requirement Traceability Matrix (RTM) concept was used to capture the requirements from user and developer of the project and/or software. The importance of each requirements was evaluated by Phenomena Identification and Ranking Technology (PIRT) which systematically gathers information and ranks the importance of the information. Finally, degree of the maturity was measured by Technology Readiness Level (TRL) for estimating the maturity of the technologies during the development and acquisition phase of certain technology. This paper summarizes development of assessment method and technical maturity evaluation of multi-purpose probabilistic risk analysis tool RAVEN.

, PIRT↗
DOE OSTI2021

PF-4 Seismic Performance Reassessment Project (P-SPRaP), Interim Risk Methodology and Deliverables [Slides]

Background: Interim Risk was added to P-SPRaP (SPR Phase 2) to produce intermediate results which build confidence, exercise methodology, develop early insights, and (most importantly) mitigate LANL pit production program risk. Status: SPR Phase 2 is actively underway, has P-SPRaP project team priority focus, and is targeting completion in FY21 (September 2021). Deliverable: Presentation of interim risk results (loss of confinement for screened in failure modes), list of potential criticisms of Interim Risk approach / methodology that intervenors could raise, cost and schedule for completion of Final Risk.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Development of a Technical, Economic, and Risk Assessment Tool for the Evaluation of Work Reduction Opportunities

Efficient and cost-effective operation of a nuclear power plant (NPP) is essential to ensuring long-term economical and safe operation. Multiple cost saving opportunities exist, referred to here as work reduction opportunities (WRO). These WROs reduce plant operating costs by employing various cost-effective strategies (e.g., implementation of modern technologies). Identifying and objectively screening WROs is an essential task to help reduce overall costs. However, there is no comprehensive framework for assessing WROs in the nuclear industry and evaluating their impact on plant operations. This report presents a novel framework for systematically evaluating WROs from a technical, economic, and risk perspective. As NPPs continue to add new technology and implement modernization strategies into their current processes, potential WROs are commonly identified. Although most WROs have the potential to reduce costs, not all opportunities will result in significant cost savings due to unforeseen risks, large implementation costs, or benefits that fall short of expectations. Examples of this can be the result of a technology that is not fully developed, uncertainty in the amount of cost reduction, or difficulties introducing a new process into an organization. These uncertainties can manifest several ways and can result in a WRO with limited cost savings or even a loss of investment. The framework developed emphasizes the importance of effectively screening the WROs from a holistic perspective to objectively identify inefficiencies and ensure a positive impact to the organization. This report presents the Technical, Economic, and Risk Assessment (TERA) as a key methodology for the screening and evaluation of potential WROs. The TERA framework begins with a screening phase where the process is examined through a hybrid combination of Lean Six Sigma and Integrated Operations for Nuclear (ION) guiding principles. This framework examines the current processes using the Lean Six Sigma SIPOC (Suppliers, Inputs, Process, Outputs, Consumers) methodology but retains the ION key elements of People, Technology, Process, and Governance as important factors to the nuclear decision-making process. By combining the principles of Lean Six Sigma and ION, the developed screening process is specific to the nuclear industry in that it systematically evaluates WROs in order to implement new technology that is comprehensively evaluated. The TERA begins by mapping current processes as they relate to WROs and examining the inefficiencies. Furthermore, the created process map can be used to identify and evaluate potential solutions. Using key performance indicators (KPIs), the TERA evaluates each area—technology, economics, and risk—for uncertainties and to perform cost-benefit analysis. The results of the TERA are important KPIs that allow for an evaluation of different processes and technology implementations. This assessment enables decision-makers to compare various WROs based on metrics and then make informed decisions for which opportunity to implement first. This research includes not only the creation of the TERA framework, but also the evaluation of its performance. A case study for screening potential WROs at Southern Nuclear Company is presented that utilizes the TERA methodology. Through the use of TERA, various WROs were screened, and the solutions evaluated for cost-benefit expectations. The report concludes by summarizing the overall effort and implications for utility modernization. The performance of the screening and TERA are discussed as well as the impact on the nuclear industry. The TERA process enables utilities to evaluate and inform investment decisions for WROs and mitigate any potential risks. Through this research, we provide utilities with a valuable framework to optimize operations, reduce costs, and drive continuous process improvement.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Markov Process to Evaluate the Value Proposition of a Risk-Informed Predictive Maintenance Strategy

To achieve high-capacity factors, the nuclear fleet has relied on labor-intensive and time-consuming operation and preventive maintenance programs for plant systems. Manually performed inspection, calibration, testing, and maintenance of plant assets at periodic frequencies, along with time-based replacement of assets irrespective of condition, have resulted in a costly, labor-centric business model. Fortunately, there are technologies that can eliminate unnecessary preventive maintenance activities by deploying risk-informed predictive maintenance, enabling the transition to a technology-centric business model. The technology-centric business model will enable plants to optimize and automate maintenance activities, leading to cost reductions since labor is a rising cost and technology is a declining cost. The implementation of scalable technologies and methodologies across plant systems and across the nuclear fleet is critical for successful deployment of a risk-informed predictive maintenance strategy at commercial nuclear power plants. The work presented in the report is being developed as part of a collaborative research effort between Idaho National Laboratory and Public Service Enterprise Group Nuclear, LLC. This report describes the technical basis using the Markov Process to evaluate the value proposition for the risk-informed predictive maintenance strategy for the circulating water system. The plant process data from the Salem nuclear plant’s circulating water system is utilized to develop a Markov chain risk models and formulation to estimate the loss and gain in revenue based on plant availability. The outcomes presented in this report provides the technical basis for extensive quantitative evaluation of a scalable risk-informed predictive maintenance strategy as part of future research.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2025

Interconnected Risks in Electricity Systems: Understanding Research Challenges, Needs, and Partnerships

The U.S. federal government has a potential role in mitigating the most poorly addressed risks across electricity markets and interdependent systems. Electricity system risks stem from extreme acute shocks (e.g., cyberattacks, extreme weather, and supply chain disruptions) and chronic stressors (e.g., global economic competition, uncertainties surrounding emerging technologies, climate change, and related conflicts). These acute shocks and chronic stressors can result in dire consequences for society, underscoring the need for better information for decision makers in both public and private sectors. Best practices and a shared understanding of risk management and risk quantification must be rapidly developed and disseminated. Informed by a quantitative treatment of risk to electrical infrastructure and interdependent systems, decision makers can more prudently and efficiently prioritize mitigation initiatives to maximize benefits to government, businesses, and the public.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2020

Chemical Impacts of Potential CO2 and Brine Leakage on Groundwater Quality with Quantitative Risk Assessment: A Case Study of the Farnsworth Unit

Potential leakage of reservoir fluids is considered a key risk factor for geologic CO2 sequestration (GCS), with concerns of their chemical impacts on the quality of overlying underground sources of drinking water (USDWs). Effective risk assessment provides useful information to guide GCS activities for protecting USDWs. In this study, we present a quantified risk assessment case study of an active commercial-scale CO2-enhanced oil recovery (CO2-EOR) and sequestration field, the Farnsworth Unit (FWU). Specific objectives of this study include: (1) to quantify potential risks of CO2 and brine leakage to the overlying USDW quality with response surface methodology (RSM); and (2) to identify water chemistry indicators for early detection criteria. Results suggest that trace metals (e.g., arsenic and selenium) are less likely to become a risk due to their adsorption onto clay minerals; no-impact thresholds based on site monitoring data could be a preferable reference for early groundwater quality evaluation; and pH is suggested as an indicator for early detection of a leakage. This study may provide quantitative insight for monitoring strategies on GCS sites to enhance the safety of long-term CO2 sequestration.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Dynamic Probabilistic Risk Assessment Based Response Surface Approach for FLEX and Accident Tolerant Fuels for Medium Break LOCA Spectrum

After the Fukushima Daiichi Accident, the safety features such as accident tolerant fuel (ATF) and diverse and flexible coping strategies (FLEX) for existing nuclear fleets are being investigated by the US Department of Energy under the Light Water Reactor Sustainability Program. This research is being conducted to quantify the risk-benefit of these safety features. Dynamic probabilistic risk assessment (DPRA)-based response-surface approach has been presented to quantify the FLEX and ATF benefits by estimating the risk associated with each option. ATFs with multilayered silicon carbide (SiC), iron-chromium-aluminum, and chromium-coated zirconium cladding were considered in this study. While these ATF candidates perform better than the current zirconium cladding (Zr), they may introduce additional failure modes in some operating conditions. The fuel failure analysis modules (FAMs) were developed to investigate ATF performance. The dynamic risk assessments were performed using RAVEN, a DPRA tool, coupled with RELAP5 and FAMs. A cumulative distribution function-based index provided a mean of comparing the benefits of safety enhancements. For medium break loss of coolant accidents, FLEX operational timing window for each fuel type was estimated. Among these ATF candidates, SiC-type ATF was the most beneficial candidate for an increased safety margin than Zr-based fuel and was found to complement FLEX strategies in terms of risk and coping time.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2023

A geospatial risk analysis graphical user interface for identifying hazardous chemical emission sources

Background: Performing back trajectory and forward trajectory using the Hybrid Single-Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory Model (HYSPLIT) is a reliable approach for assessing particle transport after release among mid-field atmospheric models. HYSPLIT has an externally facing online interface that allows non-expert users to run the model trajectories without requiring extensive training or programming. However, the existing HYSPLIT interface is limited if simulations have a large amount of meteorological data and timesteps that are not coincident. The objective of this study is to design and develop a more robust tool to rapidly evaluate hazard transport conditions and to perform risk analysis, while still maintaining an intuitive and user-friendly interface. Methods: HYSPLIT calculates forward and backward trajectories of particles based on wind speed, wind direction, and the corresponding location, timestamp, and Pasquill stability classes of the regions of the atmosphere in terms of the wind speed, the amount of solar radiation, and the fractional cloud cover. The computed particle transport trajectories, combined with the online Proton Transfer Reaction-Mass Spectrometry (PTR-MS) data (https://figshare.com/articles/dataset/ARL_Data_from_PROS_station_at_Hanford_site/19993964), can be used to identify and quantify the sources and affected area of the hazardous chemicals’ emission using the potential source distribution function (PSDF). PSDF is an improved statistical function based on the well-known potential source contribution function (PSCF) in establishing the air pollutant source and receptor relationship. Performing this analysis requires a range of meteorological and pollutant concentration measurements to be statistically meaningful. The existing HYSPLIT graphical user interface (GUI) does not easily permit computations of trajectories of a dataset of meteorological data in high temporal frequency. To improve the performance of HYSPLIT computations from a large dataset and enhance risk analysis of the accidental release of material at risk, a geospatial risk analysis tool (GRAT-GUI) is created to allow large data sets to be processed instantaneously and to provide ease of visualization. Results: The GRAT-GUI is a native desktop-based application and can be run in any Windows 10 system without any internet access requirements, thus providing a secure way to process large meteorological datasets even on a standalone computer. GRAT-GUI has features to import, integrate, and convert meteorological data with various formats for hazardous chemical emission source identification and risk analysis as a self-explanatory user interface. The tool is available at https://figshare.com/articles/software/GRAT/19426742.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
NASA NTRS1990

Similarity of urinary risk factors among stone-forming patients in five regions of the United States

Study Objective: To compare urinary biochemical risk factors among stone-forming patients in the Southeast (SE) or "stone belt" versus four other regions of the United States. Design: Prospective biochemical survey for regional comparisons. Setting: Referral-based nephrolithiasis clinics, urologists, nephrologists, and family practitioners. Patients: Consecutive sample of 3473 stone-forming patients who submitted 24-hour urine collections for biochemical analyses of stone-forming risk factors. Interventions: None. Subjects taking medication known to interfere with stone-forming risk factors were deleted from the final data compilation. Measurements and Main Results: Overall, the mean values for each urinary parameter spanned a narrow range without significant difference between the five regions. Among "metabolic" factors, 40% in the SE had hypercalciuria (> 6.25 mmol/d), compared to 35%-43% in other regions, and hyperuricosuria (> 4.2 mmol/d) was found in 16% in the SE versus 17%-19% elsewhere. Among "environmental" factors, low urine volume ( < 2 L/d) was found in 77% patients in the SE compared to 69%-78% elsewhere, and high sodium was encountered in 27% in the SE versus 24%-29% elsewhere. No differences were noted in occurrence of other abnormal risk factors: hyperoxaluria, hypocitraturia, low pH, high sulfate, high phosphorus, or low magnesium. Conclusions: Despite expected regional differences in nutritional and environmental influences, the results of this study showed a striking similarity in urinary biochemical risk factor profiles of stone-formers in all five regions of the United States.

NASA Discipline Number 18-10↗
NASA NTRS2010

Identification and Classification of Common Risks in Space Science Missions

Due to the highly constrained schedules and budgets that NASA missions must contend with, the identification and management of cost, schedule and risks in the earliest stages of the lifecycle is critical. At the Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) it is the concurrent engineering teams that first address these items in a systematic manner. Foremost of these concurrent engineering teams is Team X. Started in 1995, Team X has carried out over 1000 studies, dramatically reducing the time and cost involved, and has been the model for other concurrent engineering teams both within NASA and throughout the larger aerospace community. The ability to do integrated risk identification and assessment was first introduced into Team X in 2001. Since that time the mission risks identified in each study have been kept in a database. In this paper we will describe how the Team X risk process is evolving highlighting the strengths and weaknesses of the different approaches. The paper will especially focus on the identification and classification of common risks that have arisen during Team X studies of space based science missions.

Risk Identification↗
NASA NTRS2015

Developing Probabilistic Safety Performance Margins for Unknown and Underappreciated Risks

Probabilistic safety requirements currently formulated or proposed for space systems, nuclear reactor systems, nuclear weapon systems, and other types of systems that have a low-probability potential for high-consequence accidents depend on showing that the probability of such accidents is below a specified safety threshold or goal. Verification of compliance depends heavily upon synthetic modeling techniques such as PRA. To determine whether or not a system meets its probabilistic requirements, it is necessary to consider whether there are significant risks that are not fully considered in the PRA either because they are not known at the time or because their importance is not fully understood. The ultimate objective is to establish a reasonable margin to account for the difference between known risks and actual risks in attempting to validate compliance with a probabilistic safety threshold or goal. In this paper, we examine data accumulated over the past 60 years from the space program, from nuclear reactor experience, from aircraft systems, and from human reliability experience to formulate guidelines for estimating probabilistic margins to account for risks that are initially unknown or underappreciated. The formulation includes a review of the safety literature to identify the principal causes of such risks.

Safety Performance Margin↗
NASA NTRS2015

Relative Impacts of Mitigation, Temperature, and Precipitation on 21st-Century Megadrought Risk in the American Southwest

Megadroughts are comparable in severity to the worst droughts of the 20th century but are of much longer duration. A megadrought in the American Southwest would impose unprecedented stress on the limited water resources of the area, making it critical to evaluate future risks not only under different climate change mitigation scenarios but also for different aspects of regional hydroclimate. We find that changes in the mean hydroclimate state, rather than its variability, determine megadrought risk in the American Southwest. Estimates of megadrought probabilities based on precipitation alone tend to underestimate risk. Furthermore, business-as-usual emissions of greenhouse gases will drive regional warming and drying, regardless of large precipitation uncertainties. We find that regional temperature increases alone push megadrought risk above 70, 90, or 99% by the end of the century, even if precipitation increases moderately, does not change, or decreases, respectively. Although each possibility is supported by some climate model simulations, the latter is the most common outcome for the American Southwest in Coupled Model Intercomparison 5 generation models. An aggressive reduction in global greenhouse gas emissions cuts megadrought risks nearly in half.

risk↗
NASA NTRS2017

Risk-Significant Adverse Condition Awareness Strengthens Assurance of Fault Management Systems

As spaceflight systems increase in complexity, Fault Management (FM) systems are ranked high in risk-based assessment of software criticality, emphasizing the importance of establishing highly competent domain expertise to provide assurance. Adverse conditions (ACs) and specific vulnerabilities encountered by safety- and mission-critical software systems have been identified through efforts to reduce the risk posture of software-intensive NASA missions. Acknowledgement of potential off-nominal conditions and analysis to determine software system resiliency are important aspects of hazard analysis and FM. A key component of assuring FM is an assessment of how well software addresses susceptibility to failure through consideration of ACs. Focus on significant risk predicted through experienced analysis conducted at the NASA Independent Verification & Validation (IV&V) Program enables the scoping of effective assurance strategies with regard to overall asset protection of complex spaceflight as well as ground systems. Research efforts sponsored by NASAs Office of Safety and Mission Assurance (OSMA) defined terminology, categorized data fields, and designed a baseline repository that centralizes and compiles a comprehensive listing of ACs and correlated data relevant across many NASA missions. This prototype tool helps projects improve analysis by tracking ACs and allowing queries based on project, mission type, domain/component, causal fault, and other key characteristics. Vulnerability in off-nominal situations, architectural design weaknesses, and unexpected or undesirable system behaviors in reaction to faults are curtailed with the awareness of ACs and risk-significant scenarios modeled for analysts through this database. Integration within the Enterprise Architecture at NASA IV&V enables interfacing with other tools and datasets, technical support, and accessibility across the Agency. This paper discusses the development of an improved workflow process utilizing this database for adaptive, risk-informed FM assurance that critical software systems will safely and securely protect against faults and respond to ACs in order to achieve successful missions.

IV&V↗
NASA NTRS2017

Risk-Significant Adverse Condition Awareness Strengthens Assurance of Fault Management Systems

As spaceflight systems increase in complexity, Fault Management (FM) systems are ranked high in risk-based assessment of software criticality, emphasizing the importance of establishing highly competent domain expertise to provide assurance. Adverse conditions (ACs) and specific vulnerabilities encountered by safety- and mission-critical software systems have been identified through efforts to reduce the risk posture of software-intensive NASA missions. Acknowledgement of potential off-nominal conditions and analysis to determine software system resiliency are important aspects of hazard analysis and FM. A key component of assuring FM is an assessment of how well software addresses susceptibility to failure through consideration of ACs. Focus on significant risk predicted through experienced analysis conducted at the NASA Independent Verification Validation (IVV) Program enables the scoping of effective assurance strategies with regard to overall asset protection of complex spaceflight as well as ground systems. Research efforts sponsored by NASA's Office of Safety and Mission Assurance defined terminology, categorized data fields, and designed a baseline repository that centralizes and compiles a comprehensive listing of ACs and correlated data relevant across many NASA missions. This prototype tool helps projects improve analysis by tracking ACs and allowing queries based on project, mission type, domaincomponent, causal fault, and other key characteristics. Vulnerability in off-nominal situations, architectural design weaknesses, and unexpected or undesirable system behaviors in reaction to faults are curtailed with the awareness of ACs and risk-significant scenarios modeled for analysts through this database. Integration within the Enterprise Architecture at NASA IVV enables interfacing with other tools and datasets, technical support, and accessibility across the Agency. This paper discusses the development of an improved workflow process utilizing this database for adaptive, risk-informed FM assurance that critical software systems will safely and securely protect against faults and respond to ACs in order to achieve successful missions.

Fault management↗
NASA NTRS2017

Qualitative Future Safety Risk Identification an Update

The purpose of this report is to document the results of a high-level qualitative study that was conducted to identify future aviation safety risks and to assess the potential impacts to the National Airspace System (NAS) of NASA Aviation Safety research on these risks. Multiple external sources (for example, the National Transportation Safety Board, the Flight Safety Foundation, the National Research Council, and the Joint Planning and Development Office) were used to develop a compilation of future safety issues risks, also referred to as future tall poles. The primary criterion used to identify the most critical future safety risk issues was that the issue must be cited in several of these sources as a safety area of concern. The tall poles in future safety risk, in no particular order of importance, are as follows: Runway Safety, Loss of Control In Flight, Icing Ice Detection, Loss of Separation, Near Midair Collision Human Fatigue, Increasing Complexity and Reliance on Automation, Vulnerability Discovery, Data Sharing and Dissemination, and Enhanced Survivability in the Event of an Accident.

future aviation safety risk↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Building Supply Chain Visibility for Risk Management: Illuminating the COVID-19 Pandemic Impact Upon NASA Suppliers

NASA mission projects rely upon global supply chains subject to an array of risks that threaten to disrupt or deny the timely, affordable provision of products and services as required for mission success. Visibility into these supply chains is key to the management of risks, such as those stemming from the coronavirus pandemic and its associated effects upon suppliers. Accordingly, the Supplier Research and Analysis (SRA) Program within Goddard Space Flight Center’s Safety and Mission Assurance (SMA) Directorate produced the COVID-19 pandemic/NASA suppliers dashboard as part of the NASA Meta Information System. The dashboard provides visibility and situational awareness to aid risk assessment, planning and decision-making over the course of the pandemic recovery phase. The approach of integrating data and information into visual dashboard displays has also been employed by the SRA Program to focus on specific risks pertaining to foreign-based suppliers. This webinar is presented by the NASA Office of SMA and its Supply Chain Risk Management Program, in collaboration with the NASA Safety Center and Goddard’s SMA Directorate.

supplier research and analysis, supply chain risk ↗
NASA NTRS1996

Success Criteria and Risk Management for the New Millennium Program

The NASA New Millennium Program (NMP) is a technology development and validation program that will flight-validate advanced, new technologies with space flight applications. NMP's purpose is twofold. First, it will develop technologies that will enable future spacecraft to be smaller, more capable and reliable, and to be launched more frequently. Second, it will validate the technologies in flight to reduce the risks to future science missions in flying these technologies for the first time. To measure the program's success, NMP has devised a set of criteria that stresses the relevance of technologies selected for flight validation to NASA's 21st-century science mission needs. Also, NMP has instituted a 'risk management' policy, where, through a combination of adequate resources and early risk assessment and risk mitigation plans for the technologies, the overall risk of the NMP flights can be rendered acceptable.

New↗