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NASA NTRS2014

Constraints and Potentials of Future Irrigation Water Availability on Agricultural Production Under Climate Change

Freshwater availability is relevant to almost all socioeconomic and environmental impacts of climate and demographic change and their implications for sustainability. We compare ensembles of water supply and demand projections driven by ensemble output from five global climate models. Our results suggest reasons for concern. Direct climate impacts to maize, soybean, wheat, and rice involve losses of 400–2,600 Pcal (8–43% of present-day total). Freshwater limitations in some heavily irrigated regions could necessitate reversion of 20–60 Mha of cropland from irrigated to rainfed management, and a further loss of 600–2,900 Pcal. Freshwater abundance in other regions could help ameliorate these losses, but substantial investment in infrastructure would be required. We compare ensembles of water supply and demand projections from 10 global hydrological models and six global gridded crop models. These are produced as part of the Inter-Sectoral Impacts Model Intercomparison Project, with coordination from the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project, and driven by outputs of general circulation models run under representative concentration pathway 8.5 as part of the Fifth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. Models project that direct climate impacts to maize, soybean, wheat, and rice involve losses of 400–1,400 Pcal (8–24% of present-day total) when CO2 fertilization effects are accounted for or 1,400–2,600 Pcal (24–43%) otherwise. Freshwater limitations in some irrigated regions (western United States; China; and West, South, and Central Asia) could necessitate the reversion of 20–60 Mha of cropland from irrigated to rainfed management by end-of-century, and a further loss of 600–2,900 Pcal of food production. In other regions (northern/eastern United States, parts of South America, much of Europe, and South East Asia) surplus water supply could in principle support a net increase in irrigation, although substantial investments in irrigation infrastructure would be required.

agriculture↗

NASA NTRS2007

Antarctic Circumpolar Current Transport Variability during 2003-05 from GRACE

Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) gravity data spanning January 2003-November 2005 are used as proxies for ocean bottom pressure (BP) averaged over 1 month, spherical Gaussian caps 500 km in radius, and along paths bracketing the Antarctic Circumpolar Current's various fronts. The GRACE BP signals are compared with those derived from the Estimating the Circulation and Climate of the Ocean (ECCO) ocean modeling-assimilation system, and to a non-Boussinesq version of the Regional Ocean Model System (ROMS). The discrepancy found between GRACE and the models is 1.7 cm H2O (1 cm H2O approx. 1 hPa), slightly lower than the 1.9 cmH2O estimated by the authors independently from propagation of GRACE errors. The northern signals are weak and uncorrelated among basins. The southern signals are strong, with a common seasonality. The seasonal cycle GRACE data observed in the Pacific and Indian Ocean sectors of the ACC are consistent, with annual and semiannual amplitudes of 3.6 and 0.6 cmH2O (1.1 and 0.6 cm H2O with ECCO), the average over the full southern path peaks (stronger ACC) in the southern winter, on days of year 197 and 97 for the annual and semiannual components, respectively; the Atlantic Ocean annual peak is 20 days earlier. An approximate conversion factor of 3.1 Sv (Sv equiv 10(exp 6)cu m/s) of barotropic transport variability per cm H2O of BP change is estimated. Wind stress data time series from the Quick Scatterometer (QuikSCAT), averaged monthly, zonally, and over the latitude band 40(deg)- 65(deg)S, are also constructed and subsampled at the same months as with the GRACE data. The annual and semiannual harmonics of the wind stress peak on days 198 and 82, respectively. A decreasing trend over the 3 yr is observed in the three data types.

Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE)↗

NASA NTRS2012

Changes in Extratropical Storm Track Cloudiness 1983-2008: Observational Support for a Poleward Shift

Climate model simulations suggest that the extratropical storm tracks will shift poleward as a consequence of global warming. In this study the northern and southern hemisphere storm tracks over the Pacific and Atlantic ocean basins are studied using observational data, primarily from the International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project, ISCCP. Potential shifts in the storm tracks are examined using the observed cloud structures as proxies for cyclone activity. Different data analysis methods are employed, with the objective to address difficulties and uncertainties in using ISCCP data for regional trend analysis. In particular, three data filtering techniques are explored; excluding specific problematic regions from the analysis, regressing out a spurious viewing geometry effect, and excluding specific cloud types from the analysis. These adjustments all, to varying degree, moderate the cloud trends in the original data but leave the qualitative aspects of those trends largely unaffected. Therefore, our analysis suggests that ISCCP data can be used to interpret regional trends in cloudiness, provided that data and instrumental artefacts are recognized and accounted for. The variation in magnitude between trends emerging from application of different data correction methods, allows us to estimate possible ranges for the observational changes. It is found that the storm tracks, here represented by the extent of the midlatitude-centered band of maximum cloud cover over the studied ocean basins, experience a poleward shift as well as a narrowing over the 25 year period covered by ISCCP. The observed magnitudes of these effects are larger than in current generation climate models (CMIP3). The magnitude of the shift is particularly large in the northern hemisphere Atlantic. This is also the one of the four regions in which imperfect data primarily prevents us from drawing firm conclusions. The shifted path and reduced extent of the storm track cloudiness is accompanied by a regional reduction in total cloud cover. This decrease in cloudiness can primarily be ascribed to low level clouds, whereas the upper level cloud fraction actually increases, according to ISCCP. Independent satellite observations of radiative fluxes at the top of the atmosphere are consistent with the changes in total cloud cover. The shift in cloudiness is also supported by a shift in central position of the mid-troposphere meridional temperature gradient. We do not find support for aerosols playing a significant role in the satellite observed changes in cloudiness. The observed changes in storm track cloudiness can be related to local cloud-induced changes in radiative forcing, using ERBE and CERES radiative fluxes. The shortwave and the longwave components are found to act together, leading to a positive (warming) net radiative effect in response to the cloud changes in the storm track regions, indicative of positive cloud feedback. Among the CMIP3 models that simulate poleward shifts in all four storm track areas, all but one show decreasing cloud amount on a global mean scale in response to increased CO2 forcing, further consistent with positive cloud feedback. Models with low equilibrium climate sensitivity to a lesser extent than higher-sensitivity models simulate a poleward shift of the storm tracks.

Bender, Frida A-M.↗

NASA NTRS2021

Illinois Disasters: Utilizing NASA Earth Observations to Enhance Drought Monitoring in Illinois

Drought and flooding in Illinois have severe impacts on the communities and ecosystems of the state. Soil moisture is a valuable indicator of drought and flood vulnerability but can be difficult to measure since in situ monitoring is limited to discrete stations throughout the state. The team created a framework to compare in situ, modeled, and NASA satellite soil moisture measurements to increase the spatial coverage of soil moisture monitoring. The team partnered with the Illinois State Weather Survey, USDA Midwest Climate Hub, NOAA Regional Climate Services of the Central Region, NOAA National Integrated Drought Information System’s Midwest Drought Early Warning System, and the NOAA North Central River ForecastCenter. The team standardized and compared soil moisture data from NASA’s Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) mission, modeled soil moisture outputs from NASA’s SPoRT Land Information System (SPoRT-LIS), and in situ measurements from the Illinois State Weather Survey’s Water and Atmospheric Resources Monitoring (WARM) program. Compared to the WARM data, the satellite and modeled data showed seasonally variable differences and bias. The difference was highest in the winter months and lowest in the late summer and early fall months for the SMAP and SPoRT-LIS data products. SPoRT-LIS produced lower seasonal variability and SMAP demonstrated higher correlation values and lower differences. These analyses suggest that both SMAP and SPoRT-LIS products offer unique strengths and limitations when used for soil moisture monitoring

Joshua Green↗

DOE OSTI2025

Convolutional Neural Networks Trained on Internal Variability Predict Forced Response of TOA Radiation by Learning the Pattern Effect

Abstract Predicting forced, long‐term radiative feedbacks from internal climate variability has been a decades‐long quest in climate science. We train a convolutional neural network (CNN) to predict annual‐ and global‐mean top of the atmosphere radiation anomalies from time‐varying maps of near‐surface temperature in climate models. Trained on internal variability alone, the nonlinear CNN can predict radiation under strong climate change, outperforms a regularized linear regression approach, and works within and across different climate models. We show with explainable artificial intelligence methods that the CNN draws predictive skill from physically meaningful regions but at much smaller spatial scales than currently assumed.

Rugenstein, Maria [Colorado State University Fort ↗

DOE OSTI2023

Impacts of climate change on subannual hydropower generation: a multi-model assessment of the United States federal hydropower plant

Abstract Hydropower is a low-carbon emission renewable energy source that provides competitive and flexible electricity generation and is essential to the evolving power grid in the context of decarbonization. Assessing hydropower availability in a changing climate is technically challenging because there is a lack of consensus in the modeling representation of key dynamics across scales and processes. Focusing on 132 US federal hydropower plants, in this study we evaluate the compounded impact of climate and reservoir-hydropower models’ structural uncertainties on monthly hydropower projections. In particular, instead of relying on one single regression-based hydropower model, we introduce another conceptual reservoir operations-hydropower model in the assessment framework. This multi-model assessment approach allows us to partition uncertainties associated with both climate and hydropower models for better clarity. Results suggest that while at least 70% of the uncertainties at the annual scale and 50% at the seasonal scale can be attributed to the choice of climate models, up to 50% of seasonal variability can be attributed to the choice of hydropower models, particularly in regions over the western US where the reservoir storage is substantial. The analysis identifies regions where multi-model assessments are needed and presents a novel approach to partition uncertainties in hydropower projections. Another outcome includes an updated evaluation of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5)-based federal hydropower projection, at the monthly scale and with a larger ensemble, which can provide a baseline for understanding future assessments based on CMIP6 and beyond.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Increased U.S. coastal hurricane risk under climate change

Several pathways for how climate change may influence the U.S. coastal hurricane risk have been proposed, but the physical mechanisms and possible connections between various pathways remain unclear. Here, future projections of hurricane activity (1980–2100), downscaled from multiple climate models using a synthetic hurricane model, show an enhanced hurricane frequency for the Gulf and lower East coast regions. The increase in coastal hurricane frequency is driven primarily by changes in steering flow, which can be attributed to the development of an upper-level cyclonic circulation over the western Atlantic. The latter is part of the baroclinic stationary Rossby waves forced mainly by increased diabatic heating in the eastern tropical Pacific, a robust signal across the multimodel ensemble. Last, these heating changes also play a key role in decreasing wind shear near the U.S. coast, further aggravating coastal hurricane risk enhanced by the physically connected steering flow changes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

End-Use Savings Shapes Measure Documentation: Variable Refrigerant Flow With 25% Upsizing Allowance for Heating

This documentation focuses on a single end-use savings shape upgrade - a variable refrigerant flow with heat recovery (VRF HR) heating and cooling system coupled with a dedicated outdoor air system (DOAS) for ventilation and where 25% upsizing (or 125% of the original size) is allowed for heating in colder climates (i.e., heating dominant regions). This document will primarily discuss the additional changes to the sizing algorithm and modeling approach, while a comprehensive overview of the fundamental modeling methodology and background of the VRF HR DOAS upgrade, including applicability and other key assumptions can be found in the original documentation: Variable Refrigerant Flow with Heat Recovery and Dedicated Outdoor Air System. To provide more context on the 25% upsizing algorithm, if the building is a cooling dominant (e.g., design cooling load higher than design heating load ), then the outdoor unit capacity of the VRF heat pump is sized based on the design cooling load. However, if the building is heating dominant, then this building is a candidate for the 25% upsizing allowance. Once the 25% upsizing is allowed, if the 25% upsized capacity (or 125% from the original size) represented with design condition exceeds the design heating load, then the design heating load is used for calculating the rated capacity of the outdoor unit. And if the 25% upsized capacity represented with the design condition does not exceed the design heating load, then the 25% upsized capacity represented with rated condition is used for the capacity of the outdoor unit while the remaining heating load is handled with the supplemental/backup electric resistance coil.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

NASA NTRS1977

LACIE: Wheat yield models for the United States, revision A

For abstract, see volume 1 N77-30577. The enclosed maps indicate the areal coverage of the various models for spring (durum and other spring) and winter wheat. The given regions are the combination of several climatic divisions and many times comprise an entire state.

Source record↗

NASA NTRS1980

The role of polar regions in global climate, and a new parameterization of global heat transport

The effects of the transport of heat between polar regions and other latitudes on climate sensitivity and stability are examined within the framework of simple energy balance models. New heat transport parameterizations adjust radiative equilibrium distributions of temperature with latitude on the basis of Hadley cells and baroclinically unstable eddies; including the effects of static stability changes with latitude eliminates the possible error in estimating the pole-equator temperature difference. It is found that climate sensitivity and stability for the new transport parameterizations can differ from other models, and is capable of simulating the sensitivity required by existing climate data.

Lindzen, R. S.↗

NASA NTRS1995

Preliminary analysis of University of North Dakota aircraft data from the FIRE Cirrus IFO-2

The stated goals of the First ISCCP (International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project) Regional Experiment (FIRE) are 'to promote the development of improved cloud and radiation parameterization for use in climate models, and to provide for assessment and improvement of ISCCP projects'. FIRE Phase 2 has focused on the formation, maintenance and dissipation of cirrus and marine stratocumulus cloud systems. These objectives have been approached through a combination of modeling, extended-time observations and intensive field observation (IFO) periods. The work under this grant was associated with the FIRE Cirrus IFO 2. This field measurement program was conducted to obtain observations of cirrus cloud systems on a range of scales from the synoptic to the microscale, utilizing simultaneous measurements from a variety of ground-based, satellite and airborne platforms. By combining these remote and in situ measurements a more complete picture of cirrus systems can be obtained. The role of the University of North Dakota in Phase 2 was three-fold: to collect in situ microphysical data during the Cirrus IFO 2; to process and archive these data; and to collaborate in analyses of IFO data. This report will summarize the activities and findings of the work performed under this grant; detailed description of the data sets available and of the analyses are contained in the Semi-annual Status Reports submitted to NASA.

Poellot, Michael R.↗

NASA NTRS1999

SHADOZ (Southern Hemisphere ADditional OZonesondes): A New Ozonesonde Data Set for the Earth Science Community

In the past several years, new tropical tropospheric ozone data products have been developed from TOMS and other satellites. Global chemical-transport models have been developed for interpretation of satellite data and to predict future ozone levels in the troposphere and stratosphere. However, the lack of ozone profile measurements for validation and evaluation of these data sets and models is critical in regions like the tropics. In 1998 NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center, in partnership with NOAA/CMDL (Climate Monitoring and Diagnostics Lab) and other nations, began a 2-year project to collect weekly ozonesonde measurements at southern hemisphere tropical sites and make the data available to the scientific community at a single electronic location: http://code9lQ.gsfc.nasa.gov/Data services/Shadoz/shadoz hmpq2.htmi A summary of data from the SHADOZ sites will be presented: Ascension Island, Fiji, Tahiti, Galapagos, American Samoa, Natal (Brazil), Reunion Island, Watukosek (Java), Nairobi and Irene, South Africa. SHADOZ is designed to meet other needs: (1) Provide the first climatology of tropical ozone along the equatorial zone for the wave-one pattern in total ozone; (2) Supplement field project observations. (3) Guide algorithm development for future satellite instruments; (4) Train scientists and educators in southern hemisphere tropical locations. From time to time, intensive tropical campaigns are making data available to SHADOZ. Data from the first half of 1999 will include INDOEX (Indian Ocean Experiment), SOWER (Stratospheric Ozone and Water in the Equatorial Region) at Christmas Island (2N, 157W), and a cruise from Norfolk, Virginia to Cape Town and Mauritius on NOAA's RN 'Ronald H Brown.'

Witte, J. C.↗

NASA NTRS2016

Post-Launch Calibration and Testing of Space Weather Instruments on GOES-R Satellite

The Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite - R (GOES-R) is the first of a series of satellites to be launched, with the first launch scheduled for October 2016. The three instruments Solar UltraViolet Imager (SUVI), Extreme ultraviolet and X-ray Irradiance Sensor (EXIS), and Space Environment In-Situ Suite (SEISS) provide the data needed as inputs for the product updates National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) provides to the public. SUVI is a full-disk extreme ultraviolet imager enabling Active Region characterization, filament eruption, and flare detection. EXIS provides inputs to solar back-ground-sevents impacting climate models. SEISS provides particle measurements over a wide energy-and-flux range that varies by several orders of magnitude and these data enable updates to spacecraft charge models for electrostatic discharge. EXIS and SEISS have been tested and calibrated end-to-end in ground test facilities around the United States. Due to the complexity of the SUVI design, data from component tests were used in a model to predict on-orbit performance. The ground tests and model updates provided inputs for designing the on-orbit calibration tests. A series of such tests have been planned for the Post-Launch Testing (PLT) of each of these instruments, and specific parameters have been identified that will be updated in the Ground Processing Algorithms, on-orbit parameter tables, or both. Some of SUVI and EXIS calibrations require slewing them off the Sun, while no such maneuvers are needed for SEISS. After a six-month PLT period the GOES-R is expected to be operational. The calibration details are presented in this paper.

On-orbit Calibration↗

NASA NTRS2019

Spatial Distribution of Aerosol Microphysical and Optical Properties and Direct Radiative Effect from the China Aerosol Remote Sensing Network

Multi-year observations of aerosol microphysical and optical properties, obtained through ground-based remote sensing at 50 China Aerosol Remote Sensing Network (CARSNET) sites, were used to characterize the aerosol climatology for representative remote, rural, and urban areas over China to assess effects on climate. The annual mean effective radii for total particles (ReffT) decreased from north to south and from rural to urban sites, and high total particle volumes were found at the urban sites. The aerosol optical depth at 440 nm (AOD440 nm) increased from remote and rural sites (0.12) to urban sites (0.79), and the extinction Ångström exponent (EAE440–870 nm) increased from 0.71 at the arid and semi-arid sites to 1.15 at the urban sites, presumably due to anthropogenic emissions. Single-scattering albedo (SSA440 nm) ranged from 0.88 to 0.92, indicating slightly to strongly absorbing aerosols. Absorption AOD440 nm values were 0.01 at the remote sites versus 0.07 at the urban sites. The average direct aerosol radiative effect (DARE) at the bottom of atmosphere increased from the sites in the remote areas (−24.40 W m−2) to the urban areas (−103.28 W m−2), indicating increased cooling at the latter. The DARE for the top of the atmosphere increased from −4.79 W m−2 at the remote sites to −30.05 W m−2 at the urban sites, indicating overall cooling effects for the Earth–atmosphere system. A classification method based on SSA440 nm, fine-mode fraction (FMF), and EAE440–870 nm showed that coarse-mode particles (mainly dust) were dominant at the rural sites near the northwestern deserts, while light-absorbing, fine-mode particles were important at most urban sites. This study will be important for understanding aerosol climate effects and regional environmental pollution, and the results will provide useful information for satellite validation and the improvement of climate modelling.

Huizheng Che↗

NASA NTRS2021

Extreme Ozone Loss Following Nuclear War Results in Enhanced Surface Ultraviolet Radiation

For the first time, we use a modern climate model with interactive chemistry including the effects of aerosols on photolysis rates to simulate the consequences of regional and global scale nuclear wars (injecting 5 and 150 Tg of soot respectively) for the ozone layer and surface ultraviolet (UV) light. For a global nuclear war, heating in the stratosphere, reduced photolysis, and an increase in catalytic loss from the Hox cycle cause a 15 year-long reduction in the ozone column, with a peak loss of 75% globally and 65% in the tropics. This is larger than predictions from the 1980s, which assumed large injections of nitrogen oxides (NOx),but did not include the effects of smoke. NOx from the fireball and the fires provide a small (5%) Increase to the global average ozone loss for the first few years. Initially, soot would shield the surface from UV-B, but UV Index values would become extreme: greater than 35in the tropics for 4years, and greater than 45during the summer in the southern polar regions for 3 years. For a regional war, global column ozone would be reduced by 25% with recovery taking 12 years. This is similar to previous simulations, but with a faster recovery time due to a shorter lifetime for soot in our simulations. In-line photolysis provides process specific action spectra enabling future integration with biogeochemistry models and allows output that quantifies the potential health impacts from changes in surface UV for this and other larger aerosol injections.

nuclear war↗

NASA NTRS2015

Evaluating the Sensitivity of Agricultural Model Performance to Different Climate Inputs: Supplemental Material

Projections of future food production necessarily rely on models, which must themselves be validated through historical assessments comparing modeled and observed yields. Reliable historical validation requires both accurate agricultural models and accurate climate inputs. Problems with either may compromise the validation exercise. Previous studies have compared the effects of different climate inputs on agricultural projections but either incompletely or without a ground truth of observed yields that would allow distinguishing errors due to climate inputs from those intrinsic to the crop model. This study is a systematic evaluation of the reliability of a widely used crop model for simulating U.S. maize yields when driven by multiple observational data products. The parallelized Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (pDSSAT) is driven with climate inputs from multiple sources reanalysis, reanalysis that is bias corrected with observed climate, and a control dataset and compared with observed historical yields. The simulations show that model output is more accurate when driven by any observation-based precipitation product than when driven by non-bias-corrected reanalysis. The simulations also suggest, in contrast to previous studies, that biased precipitation distribution is significant for yields only in arid regions. Some issues persist for all choices of climate inputs: crop yields appear to be oversensitive to precipitation fluctuations but under sensitive to floods and heat waves. These results suggest that the most important issue for agricultural projections may be not climate inputs but structural limitations in the crop models themselves.

simulation↗

DOE OSTI2021

Transforming ESM Physical Parameterization Development Using Machine Learning Trained on Global Cloud-Resolving Models and Process Observations

ESMs robustly predict that 21st century greenhouse warming will slowly increase global mean precipitation, rapidly increase extreme precipitation, and increase subtropical drought. ESMs agree less about precipitation trends and extremes over particular land regions critical to human societies, e. g. in semi-arid regions such as California or the Sahel, or in wetter climates prone to monsoonal rainfall (e. g. southeast Asia) or to tropical cyclones and flooding from mesoscale convective systems (e. g. the southeastern U.S.) Deep convective parameterizations and poor representation of orography and complex vegetated land surfaces contribute to this inter-model spread; clouds, aerosols and sea-surface temperature biases are also key. Reducing regional precipitation projection uncertainty has enormous planning value for water supplies, land use, wildfire, hydropower, flood control, etc. IPCC-class ESMs are making painfully slow progress on this.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

A review of SWAT applications, performance and future needs for simulation of hydro-climatic extremes

Hydro-climatic extremes, such as droughts and floods, have most likely increased due to climatic change and could lead to severe impacts on socio-economic, structural and environmental sectors. With nearly 4000 publications, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) is clearly one of the most extensively used ecohydrological models worldwide. The model has been widely used for projecting the impacts of future hydro-climatic changes, but application for extreme streamflow conditions is still rarely reported. To date, SWAT application reviews have focused on compilations of SWAT studies for specific or relatively new applications such as eco-hydrological modelling, ecosystem services, sub-daily simulations, and pesticide fate and transport simulations. However, no existing SWAT review studies have focused on simulation of hydro-climatic extremes. Furthermore, this research aims to bridge this gap by compiling and reviewing the findings of studies reporting SWAT hydro-climatic extremes including highlighting the performance and future research needs. A total of 111 articles have been identified since 1999; most of these studies were conducted in the United States and China. These articles can be divided into extreme flow assessments, drought studies, flood studies, drought and flood studies, SWAT coupling with other models, and SWAT improvements. Most of the extreme performance assessment studies reported “satisfactory ”performance, with a particular emphasis on peak flow comparisons. Future research needs regarding this topic include: (1) a unified SWAT extreme performance assessment framework; (2) SWAT improvements that result in improved replication of peak and low flows; (3) reliability assessment of global and satellite products for SWAT extreme simulations; (4) bias correction of CMIP6 and regional climate projections; (5) comparison of SWAT + and SWAT for extreme flow simulations in different types of basins; (6) development of an extreme flow module within an overall SWAT modelling system; and (7) integration of artificial intelligence within SWAT modelling.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗