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At least 1,009 records · Page 56

Separating Dynamic and Thermodynamic Impacts of Climate Change on Daytime Convective Development over Land

Climate change affects the dynamics and thermodynamics of moist convection. Changes in the dynamics concern, for instance, an increase of convection strength due to increases of convective available potential energy (CAPE). Thermodynamics involve increases in water vapor that the warmer atmosphere can hold and convection can work with. Small-scale simulations are conducted to separate these two components for daytime development of unorganized convection over land. The simulations apply a novel modeling technique referred to as the piggybacking (or master–slave) approach and consider the global climate model (GCM)-predicted change of atmospheric temperature and moisture profiles in the Amazon region at the end of the century under a business-as-usual scenario. The simulations show that the dynamic impact dominates because changes in cloudiness and rainfall come from cloud dynamics considerations, such as the change in CAPE and convective inhibition (CIN) combined with the impact of environmental relative humidity (RH) on deep convection. The small RH reduction between the current and future climate significantly affects the mean surface rain accumulation as it changes from a small reduction to a small increase when the RH decrease is eliminated. The thermodynamic impact on cloudiness and precipitation is generally small, with the extreme rainfall intensifying much less than expected from an atmospheric moisture increase. These results are discussed in the context of previous studies concerning climate change–induced modifications of moist convection. Future research directions applying the piggybacking method are discussed.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Standard solar model. II - g-modes

The paper presents the g-mode oscillation for a set of modern solar models. Each solar model is based on a single modification or improvement to the physics of a reference solar model. Improvements were made to the nuclear reaction rates, the equation of state, the opacities, and the treatment of the atmosphere. The error in the predicted g-mode periods associated with the uncertainties in the model physics is predicted and the specific sensitivities of the g-mode periods and their period spacings to the different model structures are described. In addition, these models are compared to a sample of published observations. A remarkably good agreement is found between the 'best' solar model and the observations of Hill and Gu (1990).

Guenther, D. B.↗

Atmospheric Models for Engineering Applications

This paper will review the historical development of reference and standard atmosphere models and their applications. The evolution of the U.S. Standard Atmosphere will be addressed, along with the Range Reference Atmospheres and, in particular, the NASA Global Reference Atmospheric Model (GRAM). The extensive scope and content of the GRAM will be addressed since it represents the most extensive and complete 'Reference' atmosphere model in use today. Its origin was for engineering applications and that remains today as its principal use.

Johnson, Dale L.↗

Advanced trust region optimization strategies for glass box / black box models

We present an improved trust region filter (TRF) method for optimization of combined glass box/black box systems. Glass box systems refer to models that are easily expressed in an algebraic modeling language, providing cheap and accurate derivative information. By contrast, black box systems may be computationally expensive and derivatives are unavailable. The TRF method, as first introduced in our previous work (Eason and Biegler, AIChE J . 2016; 62:3124–3136), is able to handle hybrid systems containing both glass and black box components, which can frequently arise in chemical engineering, for example, when a multiphase reactor model is included in a flow sheet optimization problem. We discuss several recent modifications in the algorithm such as the sampling region, which maintains the algorithm's global convergence properties without requiring the trust region to shrink to zero in the limit. To benchmark the development of this optimization method, a test set of problems is generated based on modified problems from the CUTEr and COPS sets. The modified algorithm demonstrates improved performance using the test problem set. Finally, the algorithm is implemented within the Pyomo environment and demonstrated on a rigorous process optimization case study for carbon capture. © 2018 American Institute of Chemical Engineers AIChE J , 64: 3934–3943, 2018

Eason, John P.↗

HST/STIS ULTRAVIOLET SPECTROSCOPY OF THE COMPONENTS OF THE MASSIVE TRIPLE STAR δ ORI A

The multiple star system of δ Orionis is one of the closest examples of a system containing a luminous O-type, bright giant star (component Aa1). It is often used as a spectral-type standard and has the highest observed X-ray flux of any hot-star binary. The main component Aa1 is orbited by two lower mass stars, faint Aa2 in a 5.7 day eclipsing binary, and Ab, an astrometric companion with an estimated period of 346 years. Generally the flux from all three stars is recorded in ground-based spectroscopy, and the spectral decomposition of the components has proved difficult. Here we present Hubble Space Telescope/Space Telescope Imaging Spectrograph ultraviolet spectroscopy of δ Ori A that provides us with spatially separated spectra of Aa and Ab for the first time. We measured radial velocities for Aa1 and Ab in two observations made near the velocity extrema of Aa1. We show tentative evidence for the detection of the Aa2 component in cross-correlation functions of the observed and model spectra. We discuss the appearance of the UV spectra of Aa1 and Ab with reference to model spectra. Both stars have similar effective temperatures, but Ab is fainter and is a rapid rotator. The results will help in the interpretation of ground-based spectroscopy and in understanding the physical and evolutionary parameters of these massive stars.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Advanced Models and Fast Simulation Algorithms for MARS Plants

With the successful commercialization of modular multilevel converters (MMC) and rapid increase in photovoltaic (PV) penetration and energy storage systems (ESS), one of the research areas being explored dynamically is integration of PV systems and ESS systems to MMCs. On this front, an integrated development of PV plants, ESS, and alternating- and direct-current (ac/dc) systems through Multi-Port Autonomous Reconfigurable Solar (MARS) plant is proposed and being researched upon. However, simulation of MARS systems on traditional existing software takes very long time (order of days) due to the presence of a large number of states and non-linear devices. Therefore, development of fast high fidelity models is of paramount importance to test the hardware design, control design and planning of power system expansions. In this context, two research objectives are addressed in this paper: firstly, an ultra fast single- or multi- CPU simulation algorithm to simulate the MARS system based on state-space models, hybrid discretization algorithm with a relaxation technique that reduces the imposed computational burden and a multi-rate method is presented. Secondly, a reduced order model of MARS is also presented. Both the developed techniques are validated with respect to reference PSCAD/EMTDC model.

Marthi, Phani Ratna Vanamali↗

Space Shuttle propulsion performance reconstruction from flight data

The aplication of extended Kalman filtering to estimating Space Shuttle Solid Rocket Booster (SRB) performance, specific impulse, from flight data in a post-flight processing computer program. The flight data used includes inertial platform acceleration, SRB head pressure, and ground based radar tracking data. The key feature in this application is the model used for the SRBs, which represents a reference quasi-static internal ballistics model normalized to the propellant burn depth. Dynamic states of mass overboard and propellant burn depth are included in the filter model to account for real-time deviations from the reference model used. Aerodynamic, plume, wind and main engine uncertainties are included.

Rogers, Robert M.↗

Standard solar model

A set of solar models have been constructed, each based on a single modification to the physics of a reference solar model. In addition, a model combining several of the improvements has been calculated to provide a best solar model. Improvements were made to the nuclear reaction rates, the equation of state, the opacities, and the treatment of the atmosphere. The impact on both the structure and the frequencies of the low-l p-modes of the model to these improvements are discussed. It is found that the combined solar model, which is based on the best physics available (and does not contain any ad hoc assumptions), reproduces the observed oscillation spectrum (for low-l) within the errors associated with the uncertainties in the model physics (primarily opacities).

Guenther, D. B.↗

Validation and Calibration of Energy Models with Real Vehicle Data from Chassis Dynamometer Experiments

Accurate estimation of vehicle fuel consumption typically requires detailed modeling of complex internal powertrain dynamics, often resulting in computationally intensive simulations. However, many transportation applications-such as traffic flow modeling, optimization, and control-require simplified models that are fast, interpretable, and easy to implement, while still maintaining fidelity to physical energy behavior. This work builds upon a recently developed model reduction pipeline that derives physics-like energy models from high-fidelity Autonomie vehicle simulations. These reduced models preserve essential vehicle dynamics, enabling realistic fuel consumption estimation with minimal computational overhead. While the reduced models have demonstrated strong agreement with their Autonomie counterparts, previous validation efforts have been confined to simulation environments. This study extends the validation by comparing the reduced energy model's outputs against real-world vehicle data. Focusing on the MidSUV category, we tune the baseline Autonomie model to closely replicate the characteristics of a Toyota RAV4. We then assess the accuracy of the resulting reduced model in estimating fuel consumption under actual drive conditions. Our findings suggest that, when the reference Autonomie model is properly calibrated, the simplified model produced by the reduction pipeline can provide reliable, semi-principled fuel rate estimates suitable for large-scale transportation applications.

42 ENGINEERING↗

WindPACT Reference Wind Turbines

To fully understand how loads and turbine cost scale with turbine size, it is necessary to have identical turbine models that have been scaled to different rated powers. The report presents the WindPACT baseline models, which are a series of four baseline models that were designed to facilitate investigations into the scalings of loads and turbine cost with size. The models have four different rated powers (750 kW, 1.5 MW, 3.0 MW, and 5.0 MW), and each model was designed to its specified rated power using the same design methodology. The models were originally implemented in FAST_AD, the predecessor to NREL's open-source wind turbine simulator FAST, but have yet to be implemented in FAST. This report contains the specifications for all four WindPACT baseline models - including structural, aerodynamic, and control specifications - along with the inherent assumptions and equations that were used to calculate the model parameters. It is hoped that these baseline models will serve as extremely useful resources for investigations into the scalings of costs, loads, or optimization routines.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Users of middle atmosphere models remarks

The procedure followed for shuttle operations is to calculate descent trajectories for each potential shuttle landing site using the Global Reference Atmosphere Model (GRAM) to interactively compute density along the flight path 100 times to bound the statistics. The purpose is to analyze the flight dynamics, along with calculations of heat loads during reentry. The analysis program makes use of the modified version of the Jacchia-70 atmosphere, which includes He bulges over the poles and seasonal latitude variations at lower altitudes. For the troposphere, the 4-D Model is used up to 20 km, Groves from 30 km up to 90 km. It is extrapolated over the globe and faired into the Jacchia atmosphere between 90 and 115 km. Since data on the Southern Hemisphere was lacking, what was done was that the data was flipped over and lagged 6 months. Sometimes when winds are calculated from pressure data in the model there appear to be discontinuities. Modelers indicated that the GRAM was not designed to produce winds, but good wind data is needed for the landing phase of shuttle operations. Use of atmospheric models during reentry is one application where it is obvious that a single integrated atmosphere model is required.

Gamble, Joe↗

Multiscale solute transport upscaling for a three‐dimensional hierarchical porous medium

Abstract A laboratory‐generated hierarchical, fully heterogeneous aquifer model (FHM) provides a reference for developing and testing an upscaling approach that integrates large‐scale connectivity mapping with flow and transport modeling. Based on the FHM, three hydrostratigraphic models (HSMs) that capture lithological (static) connectivity at different resolutions are created, each corresponding to a sedimentary hierarchy. Under increasing system ln K variances (0.1, 1.0, 4.5), flow upscaling is first conducted to calculate equivalent hydraulic conductivity for individual connectivity (or unit) of the HSMs. Given the computed flow fields, an instantaneous, conservative tracer test is simulated by all models. For the HSMs, two upscaling formulations are tested based on the advection‐dispersion equation (ADE), implementing space versus time‐dependent macrodispersivity. Comparing flow and transport predictions of the HSMs against those of the reference model, HSMs capturing connectivity at increasing resolutions are more accurate, although upscaling errors increase with system variance. Results suggest: (1) by explicitly modeling connectivity, an enhanced degree of freedom in representing dispersion can improve the ADE‐based upscaled models by capturing non‐Fickian transport of the FHM; (2) when connectivity is sufficiently resolved, the type of data conditioning used to model transport becomes less critical. Data conditioning, however, is influenced by the prediction goal; (3) when aquifer is weakly‐to‐moderately heterogeneous, the upscaled models adequately capture the transport simulation of the FHM, despite the existence of hierarchical heterogeneity at smaller scales. When aquifer is strongly heterogeneous, the upscaled models become less accurate because lithological connectivity cannot adequately capture preferential flows; (4) three‐dimensional transport connectivities of the hierarchical aquifer differ quantitatively from those analyzed for two‐dimensional systems.

Zhang, Mingkan↗

Global centroid moment tensor solutions in a heterogeneous earth: the CMT3D catalogue

SUMMARY For over 40 yr, the global centroid-moment tensor (GCMT) project has determined location and source parameters for globally recorded earthquakes larger than magnitude 5.0. The GCMT database remains a trusted staple for the geophysical community. Its point-source moment-tensor solutions are the result of inversions that model long-period observed seismic waveforms via normal-mode summation for a 1-D reference earth model, augmented by path corrections to capture 3-D variations in surface wave phase speeds, and to account for crustal structure. While this methodology remains essentially unchanged for the ongoing GCMT catalogue, source inversions based on waveform modelling in low-resolution 3-D earth models have revealed small but persistent biases in the standard modelling approach. Keeping pace with the increased capacity and demands of global tomography requires a revised catalogue of centroid-moment tensors (CMT), automatically and reproducibly computed using Green's functions from a state-of-the-art 3-D earth model. In this paper, we modify the current procedure for the full-waveform inversion of seismic traces for the six moment-tensor parameters, centroid latitude, longitude, depth and centroid time of global earthquakes. We take the GCMT solutions as a point of departure but update them to account for the effects of a heterogeneous earth, using the global 3-D wave speed model GLAD-M25. We generate synthetic seismograms from Green's functions computed by the spectral-element method in the 3-D model, select observed seismic data and remove their instrument response, process synthetic and observed data, select segments of observed and synthetic data based on similarity, and invert for new model parameters of the earthquake’s centroid location, time and moment tensor. The events in our new, preliminary database containing 9382 global event solutions, called CMT3D for ‘3-D centroid-moment tensors’, are on average 4 km shallower, about 1 s earlier, about 5 per cent larger in scalar moment, and more double-couple in nature than in the GCMT catalogue. We discuss in detail the geographical and statistical distributions of the updated solutions, and place them in the context of earlier work. We plan to disseminate our CMT3D solutions via the online ShakeMovie platform.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Accurate prediction of diradical chemistry from a single-reference density-matrix method: Model application to the bicyclobutane to gauche-1,3-butadiene isomerization

Multireference correlation in diradical molecules can be captured by a single-reference 2-electron reduced-density-matrix (2-RDM) calculation with only single and double excitations in the 2-RDM parametrization. The 2-RDM parametrization is determined by N-representability conditions that are non-perturbative in their treatment of the electron correlation. Conventional single-reference wave function methods cannot describe the entanglement within diradical molecules without employing triple- and potentially even higher-order excitations of the mean-field determinant. In the isomerization of bicyclobutane to gauche-1,3-butadiene the parametric 2-RDM (p2-RDM) method predicts that the diradical disrotatory transition state is 58.9 kcal/mol above bicyclobutane. This barrier is in agreement with previous multireference calculations as well as recent Monte Carlo and higher-order coupled cluster calculations. The p2-RDM method predicts the Nth natural-orbital occupation number of the transition state to be 0.635, revealing its diradical character. The optimized geometry from the p2-RDM method differs in important details from the complete-active-space self-consistent-field geometry used in many previous studies including the Monte Carlo calculation.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

An interlaboratory collaboration to determine consensus 231 Pa/ 235 U model ages of a uranium certified reference material for nuclear forensics

Application of the 231 Pa/ 235 U radiochronometer for nuclear forensic investigations is challenged by a lack of certified reference materials with 231 Pa/ 235 U model purification dates. The Japan Atomic Energy Agency, Los Alamos National Laboratory, and Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory completed an interlaboratory study measuring 231 Pa/ 235 U model ages of New Brunswick Laboratory CRM U100. Results from independent laboratories were combined to calculate a consensus 231 Pa/ 235 U model purification date for CRM U100 of March 26, 1959 ± 237 days. This 231 Pa/ 235 U consensus date for CRM U100 may be used by the nuclear forensic community for quality control of 231 Pa/ 235 U radiochronometry measurements of unknown materials.

38 RADIATION CHEMISTRY, RADIOCHEMISTRY, AND NUCLEA↗

A Methodology and Implementation of Automated Emissions Harmonization for Use in Integrated Assessment Models

Emissions harmonization refers to the process used to match greenhouse gas (GHG) and air pollutant results from Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) against a common source of historical emissions. To date, harmonization has been performed separately by individual modeling teams. For the hand-over of emission data for the Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs) to climate model groups, a new automated approach based on commonly agreed upon algorithms was developed. This work describes the novel methodology for determining such harmonization methods and an open-source Python software library implementing the methodology. Results are shown for two example scenarios (with and without climate policy cases) using the MESSAGE-GLOBIOM IAM that satisfactorily harmonize over 96% of the total emissions trajectories while having a negligible eect on key long-term climate indicators. This new capability enhances the comparability across dierent models, increases transparency and robustness of results, and allows other teams to easily participate in intercomparison exercises by using the same, openly available harmonization mechanism.

intergrated assessment, climate change, Harmonizat↗

Moving beyond post hoc explainable artificial intelligence: a perspective paper on lessons learned from dynamical climate modeling

AI models are criticized as being black boxes, potentially subjecting climate science to greater uncertainty. Explainable artificial intelligence (XAI) has been proposed to probe AI models and increase trust. In this review and perspective paper, we suggest that, in addition to using XAI methods, AI researchers in climate science can learn from past successes in the development of physics-based dynamical climate models. Dynamical models are complex but have gained trust because their successes and failures can sometimes be attributed to specific components or sub-models, such as when model bias is explained by pointing to a particular parameterization. We propose three types of understanding as a basis to evaluate trust in dynamical and AI models alike: (1) instrumental understanding, which is obtained when a model has passed a functional test; (2) statistical understanding, obtained when researchers can make sense of the modeling results using statistical techniques to identify input–output relationships; and (3) component-level understanding, which refers to modelers' ability to point to specific model components or parts in the model architecture as the culprit for erratic model behaviors or as the crucial reason why the model functions well. We demonstrate how component-level understanding has been sought and achieved via climate model intercomparison projects over the past several decades. Such component-level understanding routinely leads to model improvements and may also serve as a template for thinking about AI-driven climate science. Currently, XAI methods can help explain the behaviors of AI models by focusing on the mapping between input and output, thereby increasing the statistical understanding of AI models. Yet, to further increase our understanding of AI models, we will have to build AI models that have interpretable components amenable to component-level understanding. We give recent examples from the AI climate science literature to highlight some recent, albeit limited, successes in achieving component-level understanding and thereby explaining model behavior. The merit of such interpretable AI models is that they serve as a stronger basis for trust in climate modeling and, by extension, downstream uses of climate model data.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

SU-E-J-113: The Influence of Optimizing Pediatric CT Simulator Protocols On the Treatment Dose Calculation in Radiotherapy

Purpose: To investigate the possibility of applying optimized scanning protocols for pediatric CT simulation by quantifying the dosimetric inaccuracy introduced by using a fixed HU to density conversion. Methods: The images of a CIRS electron density reference phantom (Model 062) were acquired by a Siemens CT simulator (Sensation Open) using the following settings of tube voltage and beam current: 120 kV/190mA (the reference protocol used to calibrate CT for our treatment planning system (TPS)); Fixed 190mA combined with all available kV: 80, 100, and 140; fixed 120 kV and various current from 37 to 444 mA (scanner extremes) with interval of 30 mA. To avoid the HU uncertainty of point sampling in the various inserts of known electron densities, the mean CT numbers of the central cylindrical volume were calculated using DICOMan software. The doses per 100 MU to the reference point (SAD=100cm, Depth=10cm, Field=10X10cm, 6MV photon beam) in a virtual cubic phantom (30X30X30cm) were calculated using Eclipse TPS (calculation model: AcurosXB-11031) by assigning the CT numbers to HU of typical materials acquired by various protocols. Results: For the inserts of densities less than muscle, CT number fluctuations of all protocols were within the tolerance of 10 HU as accepted by AAPM-TG66. For more condensed materials, fixed kV yielded stable HU with any mA combination where largest disparities were found in 1750mg/cc insert: HU{sub reference}=1801(106.6cGy), HU{sub minimum}=1799 (106.6cGy, error{sub dose}=0.00%), HU{sub maximum}=1815 (106.8cGy, error{sub dose}=0.19%). Yet greater disagreements were observed with increasing density when kV was modified: HU{sub minimum}=1646 (104.5cGy, error{sub dose}=- 1.97%), HU{sub maximum}=2487 (116.4cGy, error{sub dose}=9.19%) in 1750mg/cc insert. Conclusion: Without affecting treatment dose calculation, personalized mA optimization of CT simulator can be conducted by fixing kV for a better cost-effectiveness of imaging dose and quality especially for children. Unless recalibrated, kV should be constant for all anatomical sites if diagnostic CT scanner is used as a simulator. This work was partially supported by Capital Medical Development Scientific Research Fund of China.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗