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Modernization of Technical Requirements for Licensing of Advanced Non-Light Water Reactors: Risk-Informed and Performance-Based Evaluation of Defense-in-Depth Adequacy

This document supports the work contained in Nuclear Energy Institute (NEI) 18-04 “Risk-Informed Performance-Based Technology Inclusive Guidance for Advanced Reactor Licensing Basis Development” Revision 0. NEI 18-04 presents a modern, technology-inclusive, risk-informed, and performance-based (TI-RIPB) process for selection of Licensing Basis Events (LBEs); safety classification of structures, systems, and components (SSCs) and associated risk-informed special treatments; and determination of defense-in-depth (DID) adequacy for non-LWRs. The NEI guidance document provides one acceptable means for addressing the aforementioned topics as part of demonstrating a specific design provides reasonable assurance of adequate radiological protection. This report provides the framework and associated methodology guidelines and discussion for establishing, then evaluating, confirming, and documenting the adequacy of defense-in-depth (DID) for advanced non-light-water reactor technologies. It was developed as part of the Licensing Modernization Project led by Southern Company and cost-shared by the United States Department of Energy and has benefited from considerable NRC formal reviews and public workshops. The methodology converts the DID philosophy into a structured process that is implementable, embraces existing United States and international definitions and philosophies of DID that set the foundation for the process. It builds on the DID framework developed in the Department of Energy Next Generation Nuclear Plant Project and earlier works on this subject. The approach to establishing DID adequacy involves the incorporation of DID attributes into the plant capabilities and programmatic elements of DID. The integrated evaluation of DID adequacy includes both quantitative elements to incorporate risk-informed and performance-based (RIPB) considerations and qualitative elements that address uncertainties and limitations in the quantitative models and supporting data. Demonstration of DID adequacy ensures that there are multiple layers of defense for risk-significant challenges to the design and that the plant capabilities and programs that support each layer are provided in a manner that minimizes dependencies among these layers. The focus of this report is assurance of DID adequacy with respect to protection of the public from radiological exposures resulting from accidental releases of radioactive material. While other hazards are not specifically addressed, this methodology is expected to be beneficial for determining DID adequacy for them as well. Risk-informed evaluation of DID considers the integrated performance of all plant SSCs and associated programs to manage daily operational activities, transients, and accidents, including the evaluation of strategies for accident prevention and mitigation. The RIPB LBE scenario methodology used in this evaluation defines the challenges to the plant safety features included in the plant design basis and beyond, and the scope of all deterministic and probabilistic safety evaluations. By examining event sequences across the whole spectrum of LBEs, a systematic assessment of DID can be accomplished.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Challenges for and Pathways Toward Solid-State Batteries

Solid-state batteries utilizing lithium metal anodes have the potential to enable batteries with a specific energy of >500 Wh/kg and an energy density of >1,500 Wh/L for thousands of cycles. When optimized they will improve the energy efficiency, operating temperature range, sustainability, and safety at a lower cost compared to projections for advanced Li-ion batteries. This improved performance is critical for the widespread adoption of electric vehicles and may enable future applications such as electric aviation. Expectations for solid-state batteries are high, there are significant materials and processing challenges that need to be overcome. Some of these challenges are well known; others are more subtle and are just becoming known. The challenges and their solutions must be clearly identified to realize high-energy solid-state Li metal batteries. In the United States, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) funds the majority of energy storage research and development, including solid state battery research. Web of Science publication analysis shows that worldwide DOE is second largest funder. Work on solid state batteries is distributed across different arms of DOE and is coordinated at headquarters to ensure a broad national portfolio for advanced batteries, including lithium batteries and solid-state battery devices. We note that university and national laboratory researchers in the US with a long-standing interest in solid state batteries is a small, integrated community with recognized impact for publications, patents and startup companies. The opportunity for this group to engage for research with international colleagues is growing, fostered by periodic bilateral meetings supported by DOE and by the recent joint US German research program for lithium battery interface studies. These are valuable opportunities to speed solid-state battery development. The ORNL led virtual workshop, overviewed here, confirms the community’s shared vision of the exciting advances, opportunities, and challenges. Further, we are seeing that this workshop has spawned several new informal collaborations and draft proposals. This encourages us to propose future discussion. On May 11, 2020, Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) hosted a 6-hour, on-line national workshop to discuss recent advances and most the prominent obstacles to realizing solid-state Li metal batteries. The workshop included more than 30+ experts from national laboratories, universities, and companies, all of whom have worked on solid-state batteries for multiple years. The participants shared recent advances, many not yet in print, illustrating that the community has gained significant new insights for solid-state Li battery materials over the last 5 years. In this report, the major outcomes of the workshop are organized to identify the gaps in our scientific knowledge for four core materials science areas: (1) Li metal anodes, (2) the solid electrolyte in contact with Li metal, (3) active cathode materials and solid-state composite cathodes, and (4) solid electrolytes. Illustrative examples and discussions are reported with the more comprehensive issues in the report. Discussion of additional challenges related to processing of solid-state battery materials and to the designs and architectures for mechanically robust, long-lived batteries received less attention due to time constraints. These are good themes for deeper discussion at a follow-on workshop, where a complete list of critical research topics can be identified.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Development of Tools Training and Outreach to Address Solar Glare and Flux-Related Avian Impacts

Millions of dollars and significant resources are being spent by developers of utility-scale solar photovoltaic (PV) and concentrating solar power (CSP) plants to address federal and local requirements regarding glare and avian hazards. Solar glare can occur from the glass surfaces of PV modules and from mirrors in CSP systems, which can produce safety and health risks for pilots, motorists, and residents located near these systems. In addition, concentrated solar flux at CSP plants has the potential to singe birds as they fly through regions of high solar flux. This work will develop tools to characterize and mitigate these potential hazards, which will address regulatory policies and reduce costs and efforts associated with the proposed deployment of gigawatts of solar energy systems throughout the nation. The development of standardized and publicly available tools to address these regulatory policies and ensure public and environmental safety is an appropriate role for the government.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

2019 LANL Radionuclide Air Emissions Report

In June 2020, Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) submitted letter ESHQSS: 20-025 to Region 6 of the Unites States Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). This letter transmitted the 2019 LANL Radionuclide Air Emissions Report to the EPA. This report summarizes LANL operations, air emissions of radionuclides, and subsequent off-site dose consequence from these emissions for calendar year 2019. This report is issued to meet requirements of 40 CFR 61 Subpart H, National Emission Standards for Emissions of Radionuclides other than Radon from Department of Energy Facilities. This regulation, called the Radionuclide NESHAP, establishes a limit of 10 millirem per year to the maximally exposed member of the public and requires an annual report to be submitted to the appropriate EPA Region by June 30th of each year. LANL’s off-site dose from airborne emissions of radionuclides in 2019 was 0.43 millirem. The normal practice is to issue this report directly to EPA Region 6 in June of each year, and then after the report is accepted by the EPA, re-issue the report for inclusion in the LANL Electronic Public Reading Room (EPRR). This second part is usually done in July of each year, but this step was overlooked in July 2020 due to other commitments. We regret this error. This omission was noted in late 2020; we are submitting the 2019 LANL Radionuclide Air Emissions Report to the EPRR now in December 2020. Aside from the addition of this cover sheet explaining the delay, the report is unchanged from the version submitted to EPA Region 6 in June.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Technical Issues in the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty (CTBT) Ratification Debate: A 20 Year Retrospective

Two decades after the U.S. Senate declined in 1999 to give its consent to ratification of the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty (CTBT), the treaty remains in legal and political limbo. Legally, the treaty cannot enter into force without U.S. ratification. However, the Senate’s rejection does not strip the treaty of its force as an element of customary international law or alter the will of other signatories to see it enter into force. Politically, the debate over the virtues and flaws of the treaty remains as strong as ever, with some CTBT advocates pushing energetically for U.S. re-review while some opponents seek ways to “un-sign” the treaty. Meanwhile, despite the Senate’s rejection of the treaty, the United States acts in a manner consistent with its main obligations by maintaining a moratorium on explosive nuclear testing and providing financial support (as well as technical expertise) to the CTBT Organization (CTBTO)—in particular the CTBTO’s International Monitoring System (IMS). The CTBT may well remain in such limbo for a long time to come, unless some catalytic event comes along to re-shape national perceptions and priorities, one way or the other. The treaty’s future, whatever it might be, will be determined in part by how much perspectives might have changed in light of interim developments. Our purpose is to shed light on some of those developments and to assess their relevance. The 1999 ratification debate addressed a large number of issues. Rejection was driven by various policy and technical judgments. The purpose of this paper is to re-examine those technical judgments in light of what has been learned over the following two decades. On some technical matters, there was explicit recognition of extant uncertainties, as well as a conviction and hope that time would dispel them. To be doubly clear, our purpose is not to recommend a way forward on CTBT ratification. The policy judgments of 1999 and 2020 are beyond the scope of this paper. This technical re-examination proceeds as follows. It begins with a short background section to introduce the key technical matters in discussion in the U.S. ratification process. Then it moves systematically through each of those topics with a review of relevant background information, a discussion of key points in debate, an analysis of subsequent experience, and a current assessment. The historical analysis draws on many sources including the primary documents of the Congressional debate, the official article-by-article interpretation by the Department of State, and the statements of key players in the process. We also relied on key technical reports and publications by subject matter experts that have addressed in more detail many of the issues in our focus. These sources include the 2002 and 2012 reports of the National Academy of Sciences as well as publications by senior technical staff of Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) who were actively involved in the ratification debate, including then-Laboratory Director Bruce Tarter. We also conducted several interviews with government officials from the 1990s, past laboratory directors, and other members of the scientific community. But, except where individuals are specifically cited by name, the judgments offered here are our own and should not be attributed to any other individual or to LLNL as such.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗

U.S. Hydropower Market Report

The January 2021 edition of the U.S. Hydropower Market Report is the third complete edition of this report (the first two were the 2014 and 2017 Hydropower Market Report published in 2015 and 2018, respectively). In intervening years between publishing the full report, updated data are also summarized and released, and can be found at the Oak Ridge National Lab (ORNL) HydroSource website. This report combines data from public and commercial sources, as well as research findings from other U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) R&D projects to provide a comprehensive picture of developments in the U.S. hydropower and pumped-storage hydropower fleet and industry trends. The report highlights developments in 2017–2019 (the years for which new data has become available since the publication of the 2017 Hydropower Market Report), and contextualizes this information compared to evolving high-level trends over the past 10–20 years. Apart from presenting trends over time, the report discusses differences in those trends by region, plant size, owner type, or other attributes.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

U.S. Nuclear Declaratory Policy 2021: the Renewed Debate about Sole Purpose and No-First-Use. Annotated Bibliography

Declaratory policy and public statements about the potential use of nuclear weapons serve many important roles. They provide an assessment of the security environment, and inform the public debate. These statements also enhance deterrence messages and signals towards adversaries, and reassure allies and partners. On the global level, U.S. declaratory policy has the potential to shape international trends and norms, influence nuclear proliferation, and it may also affect the policy decisions of other nuclear possessors. As the Biden administration reviews the elements of U.S. nuclear declaratory policy, the issue of sole purpose and no-first-use is likely to resurface. Previous administrations have examined these policies in multiple rounds of review, and they decided that the time was not right for such declarations. This literature review was prepared to inform the debate by collecting some of the most prominent articles on the topic that highlight the potential risks and benefits of these policies.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Institutional Computing: Annual Progress Report, Precision early universe simulations to constrain nuclear reactions and beyond standard model physics

The current one-year allocation (w20 qburst) is the first year in a two year allocation of the same name. The project has supported two publications in peer-review journals, another manuscript in preparation for publication, a white paper for the Astro2020 Decadal Survey, and a number of talks (see below). Code development continues on implementing a neutrino quantum kinetic equation solver into BURST, now called QBURST. While implementing coherent and forward-scattering processes into the dynamical neutrino evolution equations, multiple numerical issues have appeared. We have remedied a number of these issues through extensive debugging and testing, which include streamlining interpolation and implementing new ODE integration techniques. Further testing is required to solve the problem at a precision of better than one part in 10 6 . We expect that we will understand the numerical difficulties and implement solutions by end of year 2021.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Emission Inventories from Natural Gas Storage Facilities using Regional Frequency Comb Laser Monitoring and Aircraft Flyovers. Final Report

The project centers around a ground-based regional methane sensor developed by the CU/NIST team members under the DOE ARPA-E MONITOR program, and sophisticated aircraft measurement techniques developed by the UCD/Scientific Aviation team (responsible for a recent Science publication quantifying the Aliso Canyon storage field release). The dual frequency-comb spectrometer is an invisible, eye-safe laser capable of measuring atmospheric methane concentrations along beam paths 1+ miles in length with high precision and stability (<1 ppb methane over 1 mile). The CU/NIST team has developed a unique approach to using a single, central spectrometer to locate and size methane emissions as small as 6 scfh from specific gas field structures within the 1+ mile range of the laser. Deployment involves the stationing of small cubic mirrors at strategic locations across the gas storage site. The mirrors direct light from the spectrometer back to a detector, where methane concentrations are recorded based on light absorption at specific wavelengths. The measurements are coupled with high resolution gas transport models based on meteorological measurements (wind, etc.) to determine the precise location and emission rate of methane sources. The calibration-free and continuous nature of dual frequency-comb spectrometer measurements means that a large area can be monitored continuously for temporal variability of emissions over long periods of time. The aircraft measurements involve spiral flights around storage facilities with a sensitive ethane/methane measurement package. Upwind/downwind concentration comparisons and wind data provide total facility emissions data. During this project, a new micrometeorological package was integrated onto the Scientific Aviation aircraft to provide even greater emissions quantification capability. In this project, the ground-based measurement system was deployed for 11 months (to capture seasonal variability) at a West Coast storage facility, together with a campaign of twice monthly aircraft total facility emissions flights. The data from these two modalities was combined to quantify the methane emissions from the facility with first-of-its-kind temporal and spatial detail. Concurrent with this deployment, the aircraft team performed flights to quantify emissions at a wider array of previously un-surveyed storage sites. The ground-based measurement system was then moved to an additional site of differing total storage and delivery capacity. Aircraft mass balance flights continued, repeatedly surveying (twice monthly) this site, as well as surveying a large number of previously un-assessed sites spanning a variety of size, reservoir type and age. Assessment of ground-based, temporally and spatially detailed methane emissions information alongside aircraft-derived methane total facility emissions information led to an improved understanding of emissions, relevant for inventories of the natural gas storage sector. In particular, this work provided temporal detail (seasonal of emissions and frequency of leaks) to stakeholders and personnel responsible for updates to the EPA’s GHGI. The impact of the proposed work has been a dramatic improvement in the temporal, spatial, and site- and type- specific detail and quantification of emissions inventories for the natural gas storage sector. This work directly benefits the EPA’s GHGI, directly ameliorates the environmental impacts and public health and safety of the natural gas storage sector, and aids policymakers and industry to make sound choices with respect to management and regulation.

03 NATURAL GAS↗

Remote methane sensor for emissions from pipelines and compressor stations using chirped-laser dispersion spectroscopy

Leak rates of methane (CH 4 ) from the natural gas supply chain result in lost profit from unsold product, public safety and property concerns due to potential explosion hazards, and a potentially large source of economic damages from legal liabilities. Yet large measurement challenges exist in identifying and quantifying CH 4 leak rates along the vast number and type of components in the natural gas supply chain. This is particularly true of the “midstream” components involved in the gathering, processing, compression, transmission, and storage of natural gas. This project developed and deployed new advances in chirped laser dispersion spectroscopy (CLaDS) to detect methane leaks from pipelines, compressor stations, and other midstream infrastructure from a remote position (standoff detection). The system was deployed from a van to measure fugitive methane leaks from a local compressor station as a proof-of-concept. The technique was validated through mobile laboratory measurements with in-situ sensors as well as controlled releases of methane. The system also mapped a plume from a controlled release of methane by tracking a small unmanned aerial system (sUAS) that carried a corner cube retroreflector which reflected the beam back to the instrument. The drone-based system quantified a leak rate to within 30% of the actual rate and localized the emission location within 5 m of the actual release location at standoff distances of 25-45 m. This sUAS-reflector tracking approach has benefits for mapping leak locations remotely using small drones flying around a facility. Benefits of a commercial sensor with these capabilities include reductions of leaks for pipeline operators (more profit), earlier detection of leaks to avoid catastrophic explosion hazards for public health and to mitigate property damage, and reduced methane emissions to the atmosphere (improving air quality).

03 NATURAL GAS↗

Evaluation of the Lawrence Livermore Microbal Detection Array at the Statens Serum Institut

This was a collaborative effort between Lawrence Livermore National Security, LLC as manager and operator of Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) and Statens Serum Institut to evaluate and transition the Lawrence Livermore Microarray Detection Array (LLMDA) analysis software package, the Composite Likelihood Maximization method (CLiMax) to the SSI. The SSI is a public enterprise under the Danish Ministry of Health that operates a microbiology reference laboratory for the Danish population and analyzes tens to thousands of human clinical samples annually. SSI has been collaborating with the LLNL team for several years to use the LLMDA to analyze viral and bacterial infections from human clinical samples. The collaboration has resulted in two joint publications thus far, describing improvements to LLMDA sample preparation, and the utility of the LLMDA for detecting emerging viruses in clinical samples.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Thermal Energy Storage Model Development within the Integrated Energy Systems Hybrid Repository

This publication details newly created energy storage models developed within the HYBRID Modelica repository as part of the Department of Energy Office of Nuclear Energy (DOE-NE) Integrated Energy Systems (IES) program, led by Idaho National Laboratory (INL). Model development to-date includes creation of dynamic systems-level models of concrete, latent heat, and packed-bed thermocline energy storage technologies for deployment in the IES-based HYBRID repository. Models are developed using the latest publicly available data and incorporate the possibility of control strategy inclusion for use with the existing IES modeling, analysis, and optimization toolset. Simulations showcase the abilities of each technology to cyclically charge and discharge when exposed to time-varying boundary conditions. In addition, low-level surrogate models for some of the thermal energy storage technologies were created using Python. These lower order Python files are much cheaper to run (i.e., computationally faster) and thus operate well when incorporated within the stochastic optimization problems run for the IES program. Moreover, economic data was collected for use within the INL-developed Framework for Optimization of ResourCes and Economics (FORCE). This information is incorporated within the FORCE platform. This work has resulted in creation of systems-level models for concrete, latent heat, and thermocline thermal energy storage systems with associated control systems. Now that these models are available, they can be utilized within different integrated energy park concepts to understand optimal system operation, control, and dispatching. Moreover, given the generic nature of the models, industrial partner technologies (e.g., Storworks Power, EnergyNest) can be quickly added to the repository using the existing models as a basis. Additional dynamic models for thermal energy storage concepts can be developed and added to the HYBRID repository as needed.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

U.S. ESCO Industry: Industry Size and Recent Market Trends

This study is the latest in a series of LBNL research into U.S. ESCO industry characteristics and market trends. The research is based on interviews with ESCO industry executives conducted during the fall of 2019 and the first half of 2020. Nearly all companies that identified themselves as ESCOs were contacted as part of this project. We find that after a period of little growth (2011-2014), industry revenues reached an estimated $6 billion in 2018, or a 3.4% annual average growth rate from 2015-2018. ESCOs primarily serve the public an institutional sectors (e.g., federal, state, and local governments; university and colleges; and K-12 schools). In 2018, project investments by public and institutional organizations accounted for over 90% of industry revenue, which is consistent with previous industry studies. ESCO activity in the Middle Atlantic, East North Central, and Pacific regions in the U.S. delivered the highest share of revenue in 2018, which is also consistent with earlier research. ESCOs reported that a majority of their customers use energy savings performance contracts (ESPCs) primarily for facility capital improvement needs and resilience rather than utility savings. In addition, the importance of non-energy benefits (e.g., water savings, avoided operations and maintenance costs, and avoided capital costs) accounted for in the project savings guarantee reportedly increased in all markets during 2016-2018 compared to previous time periods. The study found that the ESCO industry faces several key challenges, including: (1) increasing project development times due to more complex projects and other factors; (2) difficulty finding qualified subcontractors in some regions, including minority- women- and disadvantaged population-owned small business enterprises; and (3) difficulty accessing project documents and quickly fulfilling customer requests to justify project payments several years into the performance period of a project.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Site 300 (Facility ID N-472) Toxic Emissions Inventory Plan

The Air Toxics "Hot Spots" Information and Assessment Act (AB 2588 or the “Act”) was enacted in September 1987. Under the Act, stationary sources are required to report the types and quantities of certain toxic substances their facilities routinely release into the air. AB 2588 is designed to provide information to state and local agencies and to the general public on the extent of airborne emissions from stationary sources and the potential public health impacts of those emissions. The San Joaquin Valley Air Pollution Control District (the District) is mandated by the State to implement AB 2588. On March 6, 2015, The State Office of Environmental Health Hazard Assessment (OEHHA) adopted changes to the Air Toxics Hot Spots Program Guidance Manual for the Preparation of Health Risk Assessments. These revisions were designed to incorporate three technical support documents and to provide enhanced protection of children as required under state law (SB 25, Escutia, 1999). Due to these recent changes, and the corresponding potential increases in calculated health risk, the District notified LAWRENCE LIVERMORE NATL SECURITY, LLC that we must be re-evaluated under AB 2588. Pursuant to the Air Toxics "Hot Spots" Information and Assessment Act of 1987, we have prepared a comprehensive, site-specific Toxics Emissions Inventory Plan. The plan specifies in detail how LAWRENCE LIVERMORE NATL SECURITY, LLC will inventory our facility's emissions of all toxic substances on the list of substances subject to the Act. The plan provides a comprehensive and detailed description of the methods that will be used to quantify air releases or potential air releases of listed substances from all points of release. The plan also includes quantification methods which result in accurate and comprehensive characterization of releases and comply with all applicable requirements of the “Hot Spots” regulation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Environmental Effects Assessment for Proposed Offshore Wind Farm off the Coast of Grays Harbor, Washington

Grays Harbor Wind LLC (GHW) is proposing to develop a floating offshore wind farm offshore of west Grays Harbor County, Washington (Grays Harbor). The proposed GHW Offshore Wind Project (Project) would entail construction, installation and operation of a 1,000-megawatt (MW) offshore wind farm consisting of approximately 75 floating units, each containing a floating foundation and wind turbine generator (WTG). The Project location is approximately 25 miles (21.7 nautical miles [nmi]) offshore west of Grays Harbor, at waters depths of 360 to 700 feet. The Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) was contracted by Herrera Environmental Consultants, Inc. on behalf of GHW to carry out this preliminary scoping study to evaluate baseline conditions and potential effects on fish and marine mammals from development and operation of a floating offshore wind farm installed within a designated area off the coast of Washington1. Floating offshore wind units installed in an ocean environment as part of the Project would interact with marine wildlife. This Study report provides an initial data aggregation and analysis, using publicly available data, of the Project effects, both negative and positive, on the marine environment. The scope of this assessment is limited by the fact that the Project development is presently at the conceptual level. Data on marine organisms were aggregated and evaluated; however seabirds were evaluated by Herrera Environmental Consulting and, along with bats, were not included in the scope of this study. Significant additional work is necessary to characterize ocean, seafloor, and environmental conditions; select appropriate floating offshore wind technologies; identify construction methods and locations; and assess facility locations, including electrical interconnection. Data aggregation and analysis of seabirds and bats is also needed. Evaluation of the full range of potential environmental effects would be conducted following an award of a lease from the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management (BOEM) as part of the leasing, National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA)/State Environmental Policy Act (SEPA) environmental review and permitting processes. While this initial data aggregation and analysis uses best available public scientific information and current assumptions about the Project configuration, the effects discussed herein are based on the status of review to-date and may change as Project-specific details are developed.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Storage Futures Study: Distributed Solar and Storage Outlook: Methodology and Scenarios

This report is one in a series of NREL’s Storage Futures Study (SFS) publications. The SFS is a multiyear research project that explores the role and impact of energy storage in the evolution and operation of the U.S. power sector. The SFS is designed to examine the potential impact of energy storage technology advancement on the deployment of utility-scale storage and the adoption of distributed storage, and the implications for future power system infrastructure investment and operations. The research findings and supporting data will be published as a series of reports, with each report being released on its completion. The table below lists the specific research topics planned for examination under the SFS and the associated publication formats. This report, the fourth in the SFS series, provides a set of scenarios for cost-effectiveness and customer adoption for a range of scenarios that include future technology costs and valuation of backup power. The SFS series provides data and analysis in support of the U.S. Department of Energy’s Energy Storage Grand Challenge, a comprehensive program to accelerate the development, commercialization, and utilization of next-generation energy storage technologies and sustain American global leadership in energy storage. The Energy Storage Grand Challenge employs a use case framework to ensure storage technologies can cost-effectively meet specific needs, and it incorporates a broad range of technologies in several categories: electrochemical, electromechanical, thermal, flexible generation, flexible buildings, and power electronics. More information, any supporting data associated with this report, links to other reports in the series, and other information about the broader study are available at https://www.nrel.gov/analysis/storage-futures.html.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Advanced Computing, Data Science, and Artificial Intelligence Research Opportunities for Energy-Focused Transportation Science

The Energy Efficient Mobility Systems (EEMS) technology landscape is complex and rapidly evolving, which provides both tremendous opportunities and formidable challenges. Significant alterations to the mobility landscape are underway due to the advent of vehicle and infrastructure connectivity, autonomous driving, and rapid passenger- and freight-vehicle electrification. Advanced computing will play an increasingly important role in enabling the EEMS program to understand and identify the most important levers to improve the energy productivity of future integrated mobility systems. It is also driving new approaches to mobility and the research to unlock an affordable, efficient, safe, and accessible transportation future. Driving much of this change is the collection, analysis, and strategic use of massive amounts of diverse, complex data from infrastructure and vehicles with on-board sensors and data storage and transmission capabilities. Diverse and representative data are key to implementing approaches to maximize mobility energy productivity. While high-fidelity modeling of integrated transportation networks has strengthened our understanding of dynamic movement and behavior patterns, existing tools must be expanded beyond their current focus. This work necessitates data infrastructure investments (e.g., secure-streaming data platforms driven by ubiquitous sensors and video analytics) as well as investments in critical capabilities for large-scale automated analysis and organization using modern machine learning, statistics, and artificial intelligence. Other chief needs include agile, large-scale storage that can be quickly searched and queried for relevant data to support validation and model development, data-sharing agreements, and formatting standards for key data types. The future of public transit must be explored in greater detail, research must inform design, and opportunities must be identified for improving the mobility productivity of public transit in both urban and rural America.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

Environmental Performance Report 2020 (Annual Site Environmental Report per the U.S. Department of Energy Order 231.1B Chg 1)

The National Renewable Energy Laboratory's (NREL's) Environmental Performance Report provides a description of the laboratory's environmental management activities in 2020, including information on environmental and sustainability performance, environmental compliance activities and status, and environmental protection programs, highlights, and successes. The purpose of this report is to ensure that the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) and the public receive timely, accurate information about events that have positively affected or could adversely affect the health and safety of the public or workers, the environment, or the operations of DOE facilities. This report meets the DOE requirements of the Annual Site Environmental Report (ASER) and has been prepared in accordance with DOE Order 231.1B Chg 1, Environment, Safety and Health Reporting.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗