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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2011

Independent Review of U.S. and Russian Probabilistic Risk Assessments for the International Space Station Mini Research Module #2 Micrometeoroid and Orbital Debris Risk

The Mini-Research Module-2 (MRM-2), a Russian module on the International Space Station, does not meet its requirements for micrometeoroid and orbital debris probability of no penetration (PNP). To document this condition, the primary Russian Federal Space Agency ISS contractor, S.P. Korolev Rocket and Space Corporation-Energia (RSC-E), submitted an ISS non-compliance report (NCR) which was presented at the 5R Stage Operations Readiness Review (SORR) in October 2009. In the NCR, RSC-E argued for waiving the PNP requirement based on several factors, one of which was the risk of catastrophic failure was acceptably low at 1 in 11,100. However, NASA independently performed an assessment of the catastrophic risk resulting in a value of 1 in 1380 and believed that the risk at that level was unacceptable. The NASA Engineering and Safety Center was requested to evaluate the two competing catastrophic risk values and determine which was more accurate. This document contains the outcome of the assessment.

Squire, Michael D.↗
NASA NTRS1993

Explicit 3D continuum fracture modeling with smooth particle hydrodynamics

Impact phenomena shaped our solar system. As usual for most solar system processes, the scales are far different than we can address directly in the laboratory. Impact velocities are often much higher than we can achieve, sizes are often vastly larger, and most impacts take place in an environment where the only gravitational force is the mutual pull of the impactors. The Smooth Particle Hydrodynamics (SPH) technique has been applied in the past to the simulations of giant impacts. In these simulations, the colliding objects were so massive (at least a sizeable fraction of the Earth's mass) that material strength was negligible compared to gravity. This assumption can no longer be made when the bodies are much smaller. To this end, we have developed a 3D SPH code that includes a strength model to which we have added a von Mises yielding relation for stresses beyond the Hugoniot Elastic Limit. At the lower stresses associated with brittle failure, we use a rate-dependent strength based on the nucleation of incipient flaws whose number density is given by a Weibull distribution. Following Grady and Kipp and Melosh et al., we introduce a state variable D ('damage'), 0 less than D less than 1, which expresses the local reduction in strength due to crack growth under tensile loading. Unfortunately for the hydrodynamics, Grady and Kipp's model predicts which fragments are the most probable ones and not the ones that are really formed. This means, for example, that if a given laboratory experiment is modeled, the fragment distribution obtained from the Grady-Kipp theory would be equivalent to a ensemble average over many realizations of the experiment. On the other hand, the hydrodynamics itself is explicit and evolves not an ensemble average but very specific fragments. Hence, there is a clear incompatibility with the deterministic nature of the hydrodynamics equations and the statistical approach of the Grady-Kipp dynamical fracture model. We remedy these shortcomings by making the incipient flaw distribution explicit, i.e., particles carry activation strains which are distributed at random with a probability of occurrence given by the Weibull distribution. If the local principal axis strain exceeds this limit, damage starts to grow. By growing explicit cracks together with statistical cracks (damage) at the sub-particle scale, we ensure that material strength and fragmentation is independent of model resolution. We tested our scheme by simulating laboratory impact experiments on basalt spheres.

Benz, W.↗
NASA NTRS2011

Current and Future Impact Risks from Small Debris to Operational Satellites

The collision between Iridium 33 and Cosmos 2251 in 2009 signaled the potential onset of the collision cascade effect, commonly known as the "Kessler Syndrome", in the low Earth orbit (LEO) region. Recent numerical simulations have shown that the 10 cm and larger debris population in LEO will continue to increase even with a good implementation of the commonly-adopted mitigation measures. This increase is driven by collisions involving large and massive intacts, i.e., rocket bodies and spacecraft. Therefore, active debris removal (ADR) of large and massive intacts with high collision probabilities has been argued as a direct and effective means to remediate the environment in LEO. The major risk for operational satellites in the environment, however, comes from impacts with debris just above the threshold of the protection shields. In general, these are debris in the millimeter to centimeter size regime. Although impacts by these objects are insufficient to lead to catastrophic breakup of the entire vehicle, the damage is certainly severe enough to cause critical failure of the key instruments or the entire payload. The focus of this paper is to estimate the impact risks from 5 mm and 1 cm debris to active payloads in LEO (1) in the current environment and (2) in the future environment based on different projection scenarios, including ADR. The goal of the study is to quantify the benefits of ADR in reducing debris impact risks to operational satellites.

Liou, Jer-Chyi↗
NASA NTRS2017

Oxygen Storage Tanks Are Feasible for Mars Transit

The Mars transit tanks will probably be titanium lined, composite over wrapped pressure vessels (COPVs) similar to those used in the space shuttle and International Space Station(ISS). Since the mass of a storage tank is proportional to the mass of the gas it contains, the required oxygen will use about the same mass of tanks regardless of the number and size ofthe tanks. Using existing relatively small COPVs is possible. Pressure vessels can fail due torupture and leakage but no failures have occurred in space and the expected failure rates are very low. Since one or two spare tanks are required for reliability, using smaller tanks can reduce the total mass. For a Mars round trip, the mass of oxygen and tanks including spares is roughly equal to the mass of the ISS Oxygen Generation Assembly (OGA) and its spares. Since the OGA must orbit Mars and be returned to Earth, while half the storage tanks are emptied on the way to Mars and can be abandoned, storage tanks have a significant launch mass advantage over the OGA. Storage tanks are simpler, more reliable,and have fewer failure modes than an OGA. They would have smaller design and development costs and need less crew time and maintenance. Oxygen storage tanks are feasible for Mars transit and are attractive compared to the ISS OGA.

Jones, Harry W.↗
NASA NTRS2019

A Comparative Study on Computation of Cumulative Distribution Function in Predicting Time of Failure of Engineering Systems

Estimating accurate Time-of-Failure (ToF) of a system is key in making the decisions that impact operational safety and optimize cost. In this context, it is interesting to note that different approaches have been explored to tackle the problem of estimating ToF. The difference is in part characterized by different definitions of the hazard zones. The conventional definition for the cumulative distribution function (CDF) calculation is assumed to have well-defined hazard zones, that is, hazard zones defined as a function of the system state trajectory. An alternate method suggests the use of hazard zones defined as a function of the system state at time , instead of hazard zones defined as a function of system state up to and including time k (Acuna and Orchard 2018, 2017). This paper explores these differences and their impact on ToF estimation. Results for the conventional CDF definition indicated that, (i) the cumulative distribution function is always an increasing function of time, even when realizations of the degradation process are not monotonic, (ii) the sum of all probabilities is always 1 and does not need to be normalized, and (iii) all probabilities are positive and less than or equal to 1. Similar results are not observed for CDF calculation with hazard zones defined as a function only of the system state at time . Results for ToF estimation using Acuna's definition differ, suggesting that there is an underlying assumption of independence in the hazard zone definition. Therefore, we present an alternate definition of hazard zone which guarantees the properties of a well-defined CDF with a more straightforward ToF definition.

Hazard Zone↗
DOE OSTI2022

Decision Science for Machine Learning (DeSciML)

The increasing use of machine learning (ML) models to support high-consequence decision making drives a need to increase the rigor of ML-based decision making. Critical problems ranging from climate change to nonproliferation monitoring rely on machine learning for aspects of their analyses. Likewise, future technologies, such as incorporation of data-driven methods into the stockpile surveillance and predictive failure analysis for weapons components, will all rely on decision-making that incorporates the output of machine learning models. In this project, our main focus was the development of decision scientific methods that combine uncertainty estimates for machine learning predictions, with a domain-specific model of error costs. Other focus areas include uncertainty measurement in ML predictions, designing decision rules using multiobjecive optimization, the value of uncertainty reduction, and decision-tailored uncertainty quantification for probability estimates. By laying foundations for rigorous decision making based on the predictions of machine learning models, these approaches are directly relevant to every national security mission that applies, or will apply, machine learning to data, most of which entail some decision context.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Unpinning the Lynchpin: Development of a system to introduce redundancy at Department of Energy laboratories

The United States Department of Energy (DOE) laboratory system employs over 78,000 people and had a budget of $8.1 billion for Fiscal Year 2023 (FY23). This diverse workforce includes employees at all levels from operational support staff to senior level management. Together, the labs take on incredibly complex and unique technical challenges in an attempt to address fundamental National and global needs. These technical challenges often require specialized training such that only a single person is truly capable of completing specific tasks. With the modern competitive environment, and an aging workforce, the risk of technical capability loss is highly probable with potentially severe impact. An online survey of Lawrence Livermore National Laboratories (LLNL) employees, a typical DOE lab, found that of responders with greater than 10 years of experience, 100% of respondents felt burnt out, 40% felt they were not paid fairly, and 50% believe that not enough is done by leadership to retain them as an employee. Couple that to an aging workforce, and the risk of losing institutional knowledge due to single point of failure, or lynchpin, is significant. There is a need for a system which reduces the risk of operational and technical losses due to lynchpin employees leaving the organization. A mitigation of this risk would lead to the successful transfer of knowledge from one generation to the next, improving the rate of development and minimizing general risk of mistakes.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗
NASA NTRS1976

An improved turbine disk design to increase reliability of aircraft jet engines

An analytical study was performed on a novel disk design to replace the existing high-pressure turbine, stage 1 disk on the CF6-50 turbofan engine. Preliminary studies were conducted on seven candidate disk design concepts. An integral multidisk design with bore entry of the turbine blade cooling air was selected as the improved disk design. This disk has the unique feature of being redundant such that if one portion of the disk would fail, the remaining portion would prevent the release of large disk fragments from the turbine system. Low cycle fatigue lives, initial defect propagation lives, burst speed, and the kinetic energies of probable disk fragment configurations were calculated, and comparisons were made with the existing disk, both in its current material, IN 718, and with the substitution of an advanced alloy, Rene 95. The design for redundancy approach which necessitated the addition of approximately 44.5 kg (98 lb) to the design disk substantially improved the life of the disk. The life to crack initiation was increased from 30,000 cycles to more than 100,000 cycles. The cycles to failure from initial defect propagation were increased from 380 cycles to 1564 cycles. Burst speed was increased from 126 percent overspeed to 149 percent overspeed. Additionally, the maximum fragment energies associated with a failure were decreased by an order of magnitude.

Barack, W. N.↗
NASA NTRS1999

Human Reliability Analysis: An Overview

Human/process error is potentially a large contributor to failures of aerospace systems. For some systems, such as the space shuttle main engine, large amounts of data are available, and accurate failure rates can be determined empirically. For such systems, the human error is implicit in the empirical failure rate and does not need to be quantified separately. However, for other systems, such as the solid rocket boosters, large amounts of data are not available and the failure rates must be determined by more theoretical means. When empirical data is lacking, structural models and engineering judgment must be employed. In this case, the human/process error must be modeled explicitly. An extensive literature review was performed to determine what methods already exist for modeling human error for aerospace systems. No methods that apply directly were found, although there are a number of methods that have been developed specifically for the nuclear power industry that could probably be modified for space applications. The results of the literature review are presented, as well as recommendations for future research.

Navard, Sharon E.↗
NASA NTRS2014

Engineering Risk Assessment of Space Thruster Challenge Problem

The Engineering Risk Assessment (ERA) team at NASA Ames Research Center utilizes dynamic models with linked physics-of-failure analyses to produce quantitative risk assessments of space exploration missions. This paper applies the ERA approach to the baseline and extended versions of the PSAM Space Thruster Challenge Problem, which investigates mission risk for a deep space ion propulsion system with time-varying thruster requirements and operations schedules. The dynamic mission is modeled using a combination of discrete and continuous-time reliability elements within the commercially available GoldSim software. Loss-of-mission (LOM) probability results are generated via Monte Carlo sampling performed by the integrated model. Model convergence studies are presented to illustrate the sensitivity of integrated LOM results to the number of Monte Carlo trials. A deterministic risk model was also built for the three baseline and extended missions using the Ames Reliability Tool (ART), and results are compared to the simulation results to evaluate the relative importance of mission dynamics. The ART model did a reasonable job of matching the simulation models for the baseline case, while a hybrid approach using offline dynamic models was required for the extended missions. This study highlighted that state-of-the-art techniques can adequately adapt to a range of dynamic problems.

Assessment↗
NASA NTRS1991

A synthetic seismicity model for the Middle America Trench

A novel iterative technique, based on the concept of fault segmentation and computed using 2D static dislocation theory, for building models of seismicity and fault interaction which are physically acceptable and geometrically and kinematically correct, is presented. The technique is applied in two steps to seismicity observed at the Middle America Trench. The first constructs generic models which randomly draw segment strengths and lengths from a 2D probability distribution. The second constructs predictive models in which segment lengths and strengths are adjusted to mimic the actual geography and timing of large historical earthquakes. Both types of models reproduce the statistics of seismicity over five units of magnitude and duplicate other aspects including foreshock and aftershock sequences, migration of foci, and the capacity to produce both characteristic and noncharacteristic earthquakes. Over a period of about 150 yr the complex interaction of fault segments and the nonlinear failure conditions conspire to transform an apparently deterministic model into a chaotic one.

Ward, Steven N.↗
DOE OSTI2023

A Comprehensive Assessment Tool for Low-TRL Current Energy Converters: Preprint

Along with a market-competitive levelized cost of energy, a current energy converter technology strongly benefits from an extensive consideration of socioeconomic, environmental, and regulatory factors early in the design process. As part of a technology performance level assessment, a series of assessment questions and guidance are developed and presented to evaluate an early-stage current energy technology on holistic criteria considering the entire device lifecycle. The assessment represents an accumulation of industry and research experience to date and relies on regular updates to ensure alignment with industry best-practices, regulatory requirements, and up-to-date technical understanding. A cradle-to-grave (materials, manufacturing, installation and deployment, operations and maintenance, and end-of-life) assessment of capabilities and functional requirements for tidal, river, and ocean current technologies has been completed. This work presents the evaluation questions and qualitative performance criteria for current energy converters deployed in tidal, ocean current, and/or river applications. Key considerations related to manufacturing and installation include supply chain robustness, manufacturability and related job creation in the end-user and/or adjacent communities, and the time-to-repayment of the embodied energy debt. During deployment and maintenance operations, the safety of the device and subsystems during disconnect or grid failure, the difficulty and frequency of offshore heavy-lift activities, the avoidance or mitigation of area use conflicts, the sea-states and weather conditions that permit maintenance access, and the availability of contingency plans (should conditions change unexpectedly) are a portion of the considered assessment criteria. Results include the potential impact of early-stage design decisions on the socioeconomic, environmental, and regulatory performance of a technology that allows developers to increase the product value and probability of success, and minimize costly late-stage design iterations through early and broad consideration of factors affecting overall performance and acceptability.

industry support↗
DOE OSTI2023

A Comprehensive Assessment Tool for Low-TRL Current Energy Converters

Along with a market-competitive levelized cost of energy, a current energy converter technology strongly benefits from an extensive consideration of socioeconomic, environmental, and regulatory factors early in the design process. As part of a technology performance level assessment, a series of assessment questions and guidance are developed and presented to evaluate an early-stage current energy technology on holistic criteria considering the entire device lifecycle. The assessment represents an accumulation of industry and research experience to date and relies on regular updates to ensure alignment with industry best-practices, regulatory requirements, and up-to-date technical understanding. A cradle-to-grave (materials, manufacturing, installation and deployment, operations and maintenance, and end-of-life) assessment of capabilities and functional requirements for tidal, river, and ocean current technologies has been completed. This work presents the evaluation questions and qualitative performance criteria for current energy converters deployed in tidal, ocean current, and/or river applications. Key considerations related to manufacturing and installation include supply chain robustness, manufacturability and related job creation in the end-user and/or adjacent communities, and the time-to-repayment of the embodied energy debt. During deployment and maintenance operations, the safety of the device and subsystems during disconnect or grid failure, the difficulty and frequency of offshore heavy-lift activities, the avoidance or mitigation of area use conflicts, the sea-states and weather conditions that permit maintenance access, and the availability of contingency plans (should conditions change unexpectedly) are a portion of the considered assessment criteria. Results include the potential impact of early-stage design decisions on the socioeconomic, environmental, and regulatory performance of a technology that allows developers to increase the product value and probability of success, and minimize costly late-stage design iterations through early and broad consideration of factors affecting overall performance and acceptability.

converter↗
DOE OSTI2023

A Comprehensive Assessment Tool for Low-TRL Current Energy Converters

Along with a market-competitive levelized cost of energy, a current energy converter technology strongly benefits from an extensive consideration of socioeconomic, environmental, and regulatory factors early in the design process. As part of a technology performance level assessment, a series of assessment questions and guidance are developed and presented to evaluate an early-stage current energy technology on holistic criteria considering the entire device lifecycle. The assessment represents an accumulation of industry and research experience to date and relies on regular updates to ensure alignment with industry best-practices, regulatory requirements, and up-to-date technical understanding. A cradle-to-grave (materials, manufacturing, installation and deployment, operations and maintenance, and end-of-life) assessment of capabilities and functional requirements (i.e., high, medium, and low) performance criteria for current energy converters deployed in tidal, ocean current, and/or river applications. Key considerations related to manufacturing and installation include supply chain robustness, manufacturability and related job creation in the end-user and/or adjacent communities, and the time-to-repayment of the embodied energy debt. During deployment and maintenance operations, the safety of the device and subsystems during disconnect or grid failure, the difficulty and frequency of offshore heavy-lift activities, the avoidance or mitigation of area-use conflicts, the sea-states and weather conditions that permit maintenance access, and the availability of contingency plans (should conditions change unexpectedly) are a portion of the considered assessment criteria. Results include the potential impact of early-stage design decisions on the socioeconomic, environmental, and regulatory performance of a technology that allows developers to increase the product value and probability of success, and minimize costly late-stage design iterations through early and broad consideration of factors affecting overall performance and acceptability.

life cycle analysis↗
NASA NTRS1983

Human evolution in the age of the intelligent machine

A systems analysis of the future evolution of man can be conducted by analyzing the biological material of the galaxy into three subsystems: man, intelligent machines, and intelligent extraterrestrial organisms. A binomial interpretation is applied to this system wherein each of the subsystems is assigned a designation of success or failure. For man the two alternatives are, respectively, 'decline' or 'flourish', for machine they are 'become intelligent' or 'stay dumb', while for extraterrestrial intelligence the dichotomy is that of 'existence' or 'nonexistence'. The choices for each of three subsystems yield a total of eight possible states for the system. The relative lack of integration between brain components makes man a weak evolutionary contestant compared to machines. It is judged that machines should become dominant on earth within 100 years, probably by means of continuing development of existing man-machine systems. Advanced forms of extraterrestrial intelligence may exist but are too difficult to observe. The prospects for communication with extraterrestrial intelligence are reviewed.

Mclaughlin, W. I.↗
DOE OSTI2026

Wasserstein normalized autoencoder for anomaly detection

A novel anomaly detection algorithm is presented. The Wasserstein normalized autoencoder (WNAE) is a normalized probabilistic model that minimizes the Wasserstein distance between the learned probability distribution—a Boltzmann distribution where the energy is the reconstruction error of the autoencoder (AE)—and the distribution of the training data. This algorithm has been developed and applied to the identification of semivisible jets—conical sprays of visible standard model (SM) particles and invisible dark matter states—with the CMS experiment at the CERN LHC. Trained on jets of particles from simulated SM processes, the WNAE is shown to learn the probability distribution of the input data in a fully unsupervised fashion, such that it effectively identifies new physics jets as anomalies. The model exhibits stable, convergent training and recovers strong classification performance for a wide range of signals against the selected background process, for which a standard AE fails because of outlier reconstruction. In addition, the model improves upon standard normalized autoencoders while remaining fully agnostic to the signal. The WNAE directly tackles the problem of outlier reconstruction, a common failure mode of autoencoders in anomaly detection tasks.

Hayrapetyan, Aram [Yerevan Phys. Inst.]↗
NASA NTRS1986

Structural behavior of the space shuttle SRM Tang-Clevis joint

The space shuttle Challenger accident investigation focused on the failure of a tang-clevis joint on the right solid rocket motor. The existence of relative motion between the inner arm of the clevis and the O-ring sealing surface on the tang has been identified as a potential contributor to this failure. This motion can cause the O-rings to become unseated and therefore lose their sealing capability. Finite element structural analyses have been performed to predict both deflections and stresses in the joint under the primary, pressure loading condition. These analyses have demonstrated the difficulty of accurately predicting the structural behavior of the tang-clevis joint. Stresses in the vicinity of the connecting pins, obtained from elastic analyses, considerably exceed the material yield allowables indicating that inelastic analyses are probably necessary. Two modifications have been proposed to control the relative motion between the inner clevis arm and the tang at the O-ring sealing surface. One modification, referred to as the capture feature, uses additional material on the inside of the tang to restrict motion of the inner clevis arm. The other modification uses external stiffening rings above and below the joint to control the local bending in the shell near the joint. Both of these modifications are shown to be effective in controlling the relative motion in the joint.

Greene, W. H.↗
NASA NTRS1988

Structural behavior of the space shuttle SRM tang-clevis joint

The space shuttle Challenger accident investigation focused on the failure of a tang-clevis joint on the right solid rocket motor. The existence of relative motion between the inner arm of the clevis and the O-ring sealing surface on the tang has been identified as a potential contributor to this failure. This motion can cause the O-rings to become unseated and therefore lose their sealing capability. Finite element structural analyses have been performed to predict both deflections and stresses in the joint under the primary, pressure loading condition. These analyses have demonstrated the difficulty of accurately predicting the structural behavior of the tang-clevis joint. Stresses in the vicinity of the connecting pins, obtained from elastic analyses, considerably exceed the material yield allowables indicating that inelastic analyses are probably necessary. Two modifications have been proposed to control the relative motion between the inner clevis arm and the tang at the O-ring sealing surface. One modification, referred to as the capture feature, uses additional material on the inside of the tang to restrict motion of the inner clevis arm. The other modification uses external stiffening rings above and below the joint to control the local bending in the shell near the joint. Both of these modifications are shown to be effective in controlling the relative motion in the joint.

Greene, William H.↗