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At least 1,009 records · Page 56
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NASA NTRS1981

Prediction of Earth rotation and polar motion

Based on the analysis of the polar motion behavior, the possibility of predicting polar motion up to one year in advance was found. Comparing these predicted polar coordinates with the observed ones (smoothed), the root mean square (rms) of the differences is about 0.02 seconds. The differences of the relative polar motion are much smaller. For any time interval of 20 to 30 days throughout the whole year, the rms of the relative polar motion differences is about 0.01 second. Compared with the best available VLBI results (from 1977 to 1980), the rms of pred. to obs. is 0.013 seconds, and the relative rms (for time intervals less than two months) is 0.008 seconds (here the observed data is unsmoothed). It appears that 80 to 90% of the polar motion is composed of the stable, predictable Chandler and annual terms. The UT1-UTC has more complicated changes than polar motion making it difficult to find a satisfactory method of long term prediction. So far the rms prediction error is 0.0023 s for up to 30 days.

Zhu, S. Y.↗
NASA NTRS1982

Improved global prediction of 300 nautical mile mean free air anomalies

Current procedures used for the global prediction of 300nm mean anomalies starting from known values of 1 deg by 1 deg mean anomalies yield unreasonable prediction results when applied to 300nm blocks which have a rapidly varying gravity anomaly field and which contain relatively few observed 60nm blocks. Improvement of overall 300nm anomaly prediction is first achieved by using area-weighted as opposed to unweighted averaging of the 25 generated 60nm mean anomalies inside the 300nm block. Then, improvement of prediction over rough 300nm blocks is realized through the use of fully known 1 deg by 1 deg mean elevations, taking advantage of the correlation that locally exists between 60nm mean anomalies and 60nm mean elevations inside the 300nm block. An improved prediction model which adapts itself to the roughness of the local anomaly field is found to be the model of Least Squares Collocation with systematic parameters, the systematic parameter being the slope b which is a type of Bouguer slope expressing the correlation that locally exists between 60nm mean anomalies and 60nm mean elevations.

Cruz, J. Y.↗
NASA NTRS1982

Space Shuttle entry longitudinal aerodynamic comparisons of flight 2 with preflight predictions

An overview of the aerodynamic performance, longitudinal trim, and control surface effectiveness as developed from the second Shuttle flight is presented, along with comparisons with preflight predictions. The Orbiter enters the atmosphere at Mach 29 and descends through all the Mach speeds until touchdown. Control mechanisms for the Orbiter are outlined, noting the lessening of angle of attack as the terminal configuration is reached. Methods of developing the wind tunnel predictions are reviewed, including performance in different altitudes and speed regimes, and the impetus to decouple the flight control system from aerodynamics with respect to uncertainties. Preflight predictions agreed well with the lift/drag ratio above Mach 1, but higher L/D was exhibited than predicted below Mach 1. A deficiency in the wind tunnel environment was concluded for the inaccuracies in the predictions for hypersonic trim characteristics.

Romere, P. O.↗
NASA NTRS1981

Dynamical predictability of monthly means

The concept of predictability which is conditioned by synoptic-scale disturbance instabilities is extended to that of time averages, which are determined by low-frequency planetary wave predictability, in an attempt to determine the theoretical upper limit of dynamical predictability of monthly means for prescribed, nonfluctuating external forcings. Sixty-day integrations of a global general circulation model with nine different initial conditions but identical boundary conditions of sea surface temperatures, snow, sea ice and soil moisture are carried out, where the rms vector wind error between the observed initial conditions is greater than 15 m/sec. It is found that while the variances among the first 30-day means, predicted from mostly different initial conditions, are significantly different from the variances due to random perturbations in the initial conditions, variances for days 31-60 are not so distinguishable. These results suggest that the evolution of long waves remains predictable for between one month and 45 days.

Shukla, J.↗
NASA NTRS1982

Empirical source noise prediction method with application to subsonic coaxial jet mixing noise

A general empirical method, developed for source noise predictions, uses tensor splines to represent the dependence of the acoustic field on frequency and direction and Taylor's series to represent the dependence on source state parameters. The method is applied to prediction of mixing noise from subsonic circular and coaxial jets. A noise data base of 1/3-octave-band sound pressure levels (SPL's) from 540 tests was gathered from three countries: United States, United Kingdom, and France. The SPL's depend on seven variables: frequency, polar direction angle, and five source state parameters: inner and outer nozzle pressure ratios, inner and outer stream total temperatures, and nozzle area ratio. A least-squares seven-dimensional curve fit defines a table of constants which is used for the prediction method. The resulting prediction has a mean error of 0 dB and a standard deviation of 1.2 dB. The prediction method is used to search for a coaxial jet which has the greatest coaxial noise benefit as compared with an equivalent single jet. It is found that benefits of about 6 dB are possible.

Zorumski, W. E.↗
NASA NTRS1983

Literature search of publications concerning the prediction of dynamic inlet flow distortion and related topics

Publications prior to March 1981 were surveyed to determine inlet flow dynamic distortion prediction methods and to catalog experimental and analytical information concerning inlet flow dynamic distortion prediction methods and to catalog experimental and analytical information concerning inlet flow dynamics at the engine-inlet interface of conventional aircraft (excluding V/STOL). The sixty-five publications found are briefly summarized and tabulated according to topic and are cross-referenced according to content and nature of the investigation (e.g., predictive, experimental, analytical and types of tests). Three appendices include lists of references, authors, organizations and agencies conducting the studies. Also, selected materials summaries, introductions and conclusions - from the reports are included. Few reports were found covering methods for predicting the probable maximum distortion. The three predictive methods found are those of Melick, Jacox and Motycka. The latter two require extensive high response pressure measurements at the compressor face, while the Melick Technique can function with as few as one or two measurements.

Schweikhhard, W. G.↗
NASA NTRS1983

Use of Landsat data to predict the trophic state of Minnesota lakes

Near-concurrent Landsat Multispectral Scanner (MSS) and ground data were obtained for 60 lakes distributed in two Landsat scene areas. The ground data included measurement of secchi disk depth, chlorophyll-a, total phosphorous, turbidity, color, and total nitrogen, as well as Carlson Trophic State Index (TSI) values derived from the first three parameters. The Landsat data best correlated with the TSI values. Prediction models were developed to classify some 100 'test' lakes appearing in the two analysis scenes on the basis of TSI estimates. Clouds, wind, poor image data, small lake size, and shallow lake depth caused some problems in lake TSI prediction. Overall, however, the Landsat-predicted TSI estimates were judged to be very reliable for the secchi-derived TSI estimation, moderately reliable for prediction of the chlorophyll-a TSI, and unreliable for the phosphorous value. Numerous Landsat data extraction procedures were compared, and the success of the Landsat TSI prediction models was a strong function of the procedure employed.

Lillesand, T. M.↗
NASA NTRS1984

Predictability of the Earth's polar motion

A comprehensive, experimental study of the predictability of the polar motion using a homogeneous BIH (Bureau International de l'Heure) data set is presented. Based on knowledge of the physics of the annual and the Chandler wobbles, the numerical model for the polar motion is constructed by allowing the wobble periods to vary. Using an optimum base length of 6 years for prediction, this floating-period model, equipped with a non-linear least-squares estimator, is found to yield polar motion predictions accurate from 0.012 to 0.024 inches depending on the prediction length up to one year, corresponding to a predictability of 91-83%. This represents a considerable improvement over the conventional fixed-period predictor, which does not respond to variations in the apparent wobble periods. The superiority of the floating-period predictor to other predictors based on critically different numerical models is also demonstrated.

Chao, B. F.↗
NASA NTRS1984

Numerical Prediction of the President's Day Cyclone

Numerical-diagnostic studies of major anomalous weather events are being conducted in order to investigate the relevant physical processes associated with the events and the role of satellite observing systems in the analysis and prediction of these phenomena. One component of this study is concerned with the numerical prediction of intense coastal and oceanic cyclogenesis. The specific objectives of this research are: (1) to assess the accuracy of Goddard Laboratory for Atmospheric Sciences model predictions of cyclogenesis, (2) to determine the importance of large scale dynamical processes and diabatic heating to the prediction, and (3) to evaluate the sensitivity of the model predictions to the initial conditions. It was shown that diabatic heating resulting from oceanic fluxes significantly contributed to the generation of low level cyclonic vorticity and the intensification and slow rate movement of an upper level ridge over the western Atlantic. As an upper level short-wave trough approached this ridge, diabatic heating associated with the release of latent heat intensified, and the gradient of vorticity, vorticity advection, upper level divergence, and upward vertical motion in advance of the trough were greatly increased, providing strong large-scale forcing for the surface cyclogenesis.

Atlas, R.↗
NASA NTRS1984

Prediction of the space adaptation syndrome

The univariate and multivariate relationships of provocative measures used to produce motion sickness symptoms were described. Normative subjects were used to develop and cross-validate sets of linear equations that optimally predict motion sickness in parabolic flights. The possibility of reducing the number of measurements required for prediction was assessed. After describing the variables verbally and statistically for 159 subjects, a factor analysis of 27 variables was completed to improve understanding of the relationships between variables and to reduce the number of measures for prediction purposes. The results of this analysis show that none of variables are significantly related to the responses to parabolic flights. A set of variables was selected to predict responses to KC-135 flights. A series of discriminant analyses were completed. Results indicate that low, moderate, or severe susceptibility could be correctly predicted 64 percent and 53 percent of the time on original and cross-validation samples, respectively. Both the factor analysis and the discriminant analysis provided no basis for reducing the number of tests.

Reschke, M. F.↗
NASA NTRS1985

Studies on effects of boundary conditions in confined turbulent flow predictions

The differences in k epsilon model predictions of plane and axisymmetric expansion flows is investigated. The prediction of the coaxial jet for different velocity ratios of the annular to central jet is presented. The effects of inlet kinetic energy and the energy dissipation rate profiles are investigated for swirling and nonswirling flows. The effects of expansion ration and Reynolds number on the reattachment length are also presented. The results show that the inlet k and epsilon profiles have the most significant effect on the reattachment length and flow redevelopment for the case of coaxial jet of high velocity ratio. A comparison of k epsilon model predictions for the pipe expansion flow by the PHOENICS and TEACH codes reveals some discrepancies in the predicted results. TEACH prediction seems to produce unrealistic kinetic energy profiles in some regions of the flow. PHOENICS code produces a long tail in the recirculation region under certain conditions.

Nallasamy, M.↗
NASA NTRS1984

Predicted changes in advanced turboprop noise with shaft angle of attack

Advanced turboprop blade designs and new propeller installation schemes motivated an effort to include unsteady loading effects in existing propeller noise prediction computer programs. The present work validates the prediction capability while studing the effects of shaft inclination on the radiated sound field. Classical methods of propeller performance analysis supply the time-dependent blade loading needed to calculate noise. Polar plots of the sound pressure level (SPL) of the first four harmonics and overall SPL are indicative of the change in directivity pattern as a function of propeller angle of attack. Noise predictions are compared with newly available wind tunnel data and the accuracy and applicability of the prediction method are discussed. It is concluded that unsteady blade loading caused by inclining the propeller with respect to the flow changes the directionality and the intensity of the radiated noise. These changes are well modeled by the present quasi-steady prediction method.

Padula, S. L.↗
NASA NTRS1983

Assessment of a 3-D boundary layer code to predict heat transfer and flow losses in a turbine

The prediction of the complete flow field in a turbine passage is an extremely difficult task due to the complex three dimensional pattern which contains separation and attachment lines, a saddle point and horseshoe vortex. Whereas, in principle such a problem can be solved using full Navier-Stokes equations, in reality methods based on a Navier-Stokes solution procedure encounter difficulty in accurately predicting surface quantities (e.g., heat transfer) due to grid limitations imposed by the speed and size of the existing computers. On the other hand the overall problem is strongly three dimensional and too complex to be analyzed by the current design methods based on inviscid and/or viscous strip theories. Thus there is a strong need for enhancing the current prediction techniques through inclusion of 3-D viscous effects. A potentially simple and cost effective way to achieve this is to use a prediction method based on three dimensional boundary layer (3-DBL) theory. The major objective of this program is to assess the applicability of such a 3-DBL approach for the prediction of heat loads, boundary layer growth, pressure losses and streamline skewing in critical areas of a turbine passage. A brief discussion of the physical problem addressed here along with the overall approach is presented.

Vatsa, V. N.↗
NASA NTRS1985

Prediction of destabilizing blade tip forces for shrouded and unshrouded turbines

The effect of a nonuniform flow field on the Alford force calculation is investigated. The ideas used here are based on those developed by Horlock and Greitzer. It is shown that the nonuniformity of the flow field does contribute to the Alford force calculation. An attempt is also made to include the effect of whirl speed. The values predicted by the model are compared with those obtained experimentally by Urlicks and Wohlrab. The possibility of using existing turbine tip loss correlations to predict beta is also exploited. The nonuniform flow field induced by the tip clearnance variation tends to increase the resultant destabilizing force over and above what would be predicted on the basis of the local variation of efficiency. On the one hand, the pressure force due to the nonuniform inlet and exit pressure also plays a part even for unshrouded blades, and this counteracts the flow field effects, so that the simple Alford prediction remains a reasonable approximation. Once the efficiency variation with clearance is known, the presented model gives a slightly overpredicted, but reasonably accurate destabilizing force. In the absence of efficiency vs. clearance data, an empirical tip loss coefficient can be used to give a reasonable prediction of destabilizing force. To a first approximation, the whirl does have a damping effect, but only of small magnitude, and thus it can be ignored for some purposes.

Qiu, Y. J.↗
NASA NTRS1986

Comparison of experimental surface pressures with theoretical predictions on twin two-dimensional convergent-divergent nozzles

A three-dimensional subsonic aerodynamic panel code (VSAERO) was used to predict the effects of upper and lower external nozzle flap geometry on the external afterbody/nozzle pressure coefficient distributions and external nozzle drag of nonaxisymmetric convergent-divergent exhaust nozzles having parallel external sidewalls installed on a generic twin-engine high performance aircraft model. Nozzle static pressure coefficient distributions along the upper and lower surfaces near the model centerline and near the outer edges (corner) of the two surfaces were calculated, and nozzle drag was predicted using these surface pressure distributions. A comparison between the theoretical predictions and experimental wind tunnel data is made to evaluate the utility of the code in calculating the flow about these types of non-axisymmetric afterbody configurations. For free-stream Mach numbers of 0.60 and 0.90, the conditions where the flows were attached on the boattails yielded the best comparison between the theoretical predictions and the experimental data. For the Boattail terminal angles of greater than 15 deg., the experimental data for M = 0.60 and 0.90 indicated areas of separated flow, so the theoretical predictions failed to match the experimental data. Even though calculations of regions of separated flows are within the capabilities of the theoretical method, acceptable solutions were not obtained.

Carlson, J. R.↗
NASA NTRS1986

Predicted and measured strain response of rectangular panels due to acoustic loading

The objective of the research described in this paper is to assess the accuracy of classical linear acceleration/strain prediction theory for flat, rectangular panels excited by low level, acoustic plane waves. Predictions for both aluminum and laminated composite panels were based on the Ritz method using an orthotropic, multi-mode analysis with rotational springs on the boundaries. The measured natural frequencies and critical damping ratio of the panels were empirial inputs to the model. The comparison between measured and predicted acceleration was very good. Although a factor of three bias error was found between measured and predicted strains, the model was good for predicting the trends in the spatial variation in strain across the panel.

Roussos, L. A.↗
NASA NTRS1987

Predictions of F-111 TACT aircraft buffet response and correlations of fluctuating pressures measured on aluminum and steel models and the aircraft

Results of buffet research that was conducted as part of the joint USAF/NASA F-111 TACT Research Program are presented. The correlation of wind tunnel and flight measurements of buffet excitation showed that there generally was good agreement between measurements of pressure fluctuations on the models and aircraft in regions of separated flow. At shock-wave boundaries of the separated flow, correlations of pressure fluctuations were not so good, due to Reynolds number and static elastic effects. The buffet prediction method, which applies a forcing function that is obtained by real-time integration of pressure time histories with the natural modes, is described. The generalized forces, including the effects of wing and tail, correlations of predicted and measured damping, and correlations of predicted and measured buffet response are presented. All presented data are for a Mach number of 0.8 with wing-sweep angles of 26 and 35 deg for a range of angles-of-attack that include buffet onset to high intensity buffeting. Generally, the buffet predictions were considered to be quite good particularly in light of past buffet-prediction experience.

Coe, Charles F.↗
NASA NTRS1988

Strain intensity factor approach for predicting the strength of continuously reinforced metal matrix composites

A method was previously developed to predict the fracture toughness (stress intensity factor at failure) of composites in terms of the elastic constants and the tensile failing strain of the fibers. The method was applied to boron/aluminum composites made with various proportions of 0 to + or - 45 deg plies. Predicted values of fracture toughness were in gross error because widespread yielding of the aluminum matrix made the compliance very nonlinear. An alternate method was developed to predict the strain intensity factor at failure rather than the stress intensity factor because the singular strain field was not affected by yielding as much as the stress field. Strengths of specimens containing crack-like slits were calculated from predicted failing strains using uniaxial stress-strain curves. Predicted strengths were in good agreement with experimental values, even for the very nonlinear laminates that contained only + or - 45 deg plies. This approach should be valid for other metal matrix composites that have continuous fibers.

Poe, C. C., Jr.↗