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At least 1,009 records · Page 56

Development and Use of an Ultra-High Resolution Electron Scattering Apparatus

In this LDRD project, we developed a versatile capability for high-resolution measurements of electron scattering processes in gas-phase molecules, such as ionization, dissociation, and electron attachment/detachment. This apparatus is designed to advance fundamental understanding of these processes and to inform predictions of plasmas associated with applications such as plasma-assisted combustion, neutron generation, re-entry vehicles, and arcing that are critical to national security. We use innovative coupling of electron-generation and electron-imaging techniques that leverages Sandia’s expertise in ion/electron imaging methods. Velocity map imaging provides a measure of the kinetic energies of electrons or ion products from electron scattering in an atomic or molecular beam. We designed, constructed, and tested the apparatus. Tests include dissociative electron attachment to O2 and SO2, as well as a new method for studying laser-initiated plasmas. This capability sets the stage for new studies in dynamics of electron scattering processes, including scattering from excited-state atoms and molecules.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Spectral Induced Polarization-Biogeochemical Relationships for Remediation Amendment Monitoring

Geophysical tools such as electrical resistivity (ER) can indirectly monitor subsurface changes in response to remedial injections. These methods exhibit relatively low spatial resolution compared to sediment core characterization but are advantageous due to the ability to collect measurements non-intrusively over time across large volumes of the subsurface. Moreover, along with confirmatory groundwater or core sampling, geophysical methods can be used during active biogeochemical remedies to monitor short-term contaminant transformations and mobility, as well as part of an overall strategy for long-term monitoring of subsurface contaminated sites. The use of alternating current spectral induced polarization (SIP) provides significantly more information than conventional geophysical methods like direct current ER. SIP allows for monitoring changes in both solution and surface conductivity by separation of real and imaginary conductivity, respectively, as well as surface capacitance. In principle, SIP can measure indicators of remedy progression such as precipitation reactions that sequester contaminants, potentially providing a better indication of amendment delivery and reactivity as compared to conventional ER methods. However, multiple processes and material properties have overlapping (interacting) electrical responses across a range of frequencies. Hence, the purpose of this scoping study was to evaluate if SIP can be used to monitor (a) amendment delivery and (b) precipitation and reactivity of amendments under consideration at Hanford. SIP measurements were collected in fully saturated columns packed with sand and Hanford formation sediments containing (a) amendments that were highly conductive with significant capacitance (zero valent iron – ZVI, sulfur modified iron – SMI) and (b) amendments that exhibited low electrical conductivity with a small capacitance (calcite, apatite, bismuth). The sand was a quartz material with homogenous particle size that exhibited a relatively low surface conductivity. It was used as a control for comparison with the sediments from the Hanford Site, which have a greater surface conductivity because of their complex mineralogy and heterogeneous particle size distribution and may have complex interactions with amendments. The amendment mass fraction was varied to represent the different stages and subsurface locations associated with the delivery of a remedy. The primary objective was to identify the solution and solid surface changes associated with the delivery amendments and their secondary reactions within the subsurface. The figure below summarizes results for the amendments tested through this project. The SIP phase shift or imaginary conductivity change for the high conductivity amendments was more than 10 times that of the low conductivity amendments, highlighting the relative ease of detection of ZVI and SMI independent of the background signal from sand or Hanford sediments. The ZVI phase shift and imaginary conductivity changes occur primarily at high frequency (> 100 Hz) whereas SMI changes were at low frequency (0.01 to 10 Hz). SIP signals of SMI also increased over time and the maximum shifted to lower frequencies. The low conductivity amendments (calcite, abiotic and biotic apatite, bismuth subnitrate) exhibited relatively small phase and imaginary conductivity changes when added to sediments. The changes were above minimum detection limits (0.5 mrad for phase shift, 0.03 µS/cm for imaginary conductivity) for the highest concentration except for the commercial bismuth material. The lowest amendment concentration that can be detected is likely sediment specific, as minerals in sediments (clays, magnetite, Fe-oxides) have some capacitance and, therefore, exhibit a variable phase shift.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Interplanetary Protons versus Interacting Protons in the 2017 September 10 Solar Eruptive Event

We analyze the relativistic proton emission from the Sun during the eruptive event on 2017 September 10, which caused a ground-level enhancement (GLE 72) registered by the worldwide network of neutron monitors. Using the neutron monitor data and interplanetary transport modeling both along and across interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) lines, we deduce parameters of the proton injection into the interplanetary medium. The inferred injection profile of the interplanetary protons is compared with the profile of the >100 MeV γ -ray emission observed by the Fermi Large Area Telescope, attributed to pion production from the interaction of >300 MeV protons at the Sun. GLE 72 started with a prompt component that arrived along the IMF lines. This was followed by a more prolonged enhancement caused by protons arriving at the Earth across the IMF lines from the southwest. The interplanetary proton event is modeled using two sources—one source at the root of the Earth-connected IMF line and another source situated near the solar western limb. The maximum phase of the second injection of interplanetary protons coincides with the maximum phase of the prolonged >100 MeV γ -ray emission that originated from a small area at the solar western limb, below the current sheet trailing the associated coronal mass ejection (CME). A possible common source of interacting protons and interplanetary protons is discussed in terms of proton acceleration at the CME bow shock versus coronal (re-)acceleration in the wake of the CME.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Development of a Laser Ultrasonics-based Approach for Rapid Screening of High Entropy Alloys

This project utilized a laser ultrasonic technique to systematically study temperature-induced evolution of material properties in a set of interrelated binary alloys and a high entropy alloy (HEA) fabricated using arc-melting and spark plasma sintering processes. This technique involved the use of a nanosecond duration, high-intensity pulsed laser to thermo-elastically generate ultrasonic waves that propagate in the bulk of the metal alloy. Sub-nanometer-scale displacements associated with the propagating bulk ultrasonic waves were detected along the epicenter on the opposite surface of the sample using a 1 GHz bandwidth photorefractive interferometer. Phase transformations and microstructural changes were inferred from the temperature-dependent trends in the bulk acoustic velocities and features in the ultrasonic epicentral waveforms measured in the binary alloys. These inferences were then correlated with electron/optical microscopy observations and predictions using calculations of phase diagrams (CALPHAD). The results showed that the laser-generated ultrasonic pulses were strongly influenced by changes in material microstructure and could accurately track thermally driven phase transformations and detect the presence of microscale heterogeneities (grain boundaries, dendritic structures, etc.) in the set of binary alloy samples. The measurement approach was then applied to a quinary HEA sample for estimating phase transition temperature and determining microstructural heterogeneity. The rapid, non-contact and non-destructive ultrasonic testing approach demonstrated here is amenable to high throughput combinatorial investigations that can be applied to graded composition HEAs produced using advanced manufacturing methods. When paired with atomistic simulations and CALPHAD modeling, this approach can overcome the bottlenecks faced by current material characterization methods in efficiently screening the vast discovery space of HEAs that spans over a hundred million unique quinary alloy compositions.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Superconductivity and magnetic and transport properties of single-crystalline CaK ( Fe 1 – x Cr x ) 4 As 4

Members of the CaK (Fe 1–x Cr x ) 4 As 4 series have been synthesized by high-temperature solution growth in single-crystalline form and characterized by x-ray diffraction, elemental analysis, and magnetic and transport measurements. The effects of Cr substitution on the superconducting and magnetic ground states of CaKFe 4 As 4 (T c = 35 K) have been studied. These measurements show that the superconducting transition temperature decreases monotonically and is finally suppressed below 1.8 K as x is increased from 0 to 0.038. For x-values greater than 0.012, signatures of a magnetic transition can be detected in magnetic measurements with the associated features in the transport measurements becoming detectable for x ≥ 0.038. The magnetic transition temperature increases in a roughly linear manner as Cr substitution increases. A temperature-composition (T – x) phase diagram is constructed, revealing a half-dome of superconductivity with the magnetic transition temperature, T*, appearing near 22 K for x ~ 0.017 and rising slowly up to 60 K for x ~ 0.077. The T – x phase diagrams for CaK (Fe 1–x T x ) 4 As 4 for T = Cr and Mn are essentially the same despite the nominally different band filling; this is in marked contrast to T = Co and Ni series for which the T – x diagrams scale by a factor of 2, consistent with the different changes in band filling Co and Ni would produce when replacing Fe. Superconductivity of CaK (Fe 1–x Cr x ) 4 As 4 is also studied as a function of magnetic field. A clear change in $H^{'}_{c2}$ (T)/T c , where $H^{'}_{c2}$ (T) is dH c2 (T)/dT, at x ~ 0.012 is observed and probably is related to a change of the Fermi surface due to magnetic order. Further, coherence length and the London penetration depths are also calculated based on H c1 and H c2 data. Both of them as a function of x show changes near x = 0.012, again consistent with Fermi surface changes associated with the magnetic ordering seen for higher x-values.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

Effective Lanthanide Diffusivity through U-Zr Metallic Fuel

Fuel-cladding chemical interaction (FCCI) is one of the main concerns for the performance of U-Zr metallic fuels. Although FCCI results in complex phase transformations and morphological changes in both the fuel and cladding sides of the interface, the formation of a brittle layer in the cladding side of the interface (sometimes referred to as wastage) has one of the most significant impacts on the cladding mechanical integrity. This brittle layer is associated with the formation of intermetallic compounds between the cladding constituents Fe, Cr and the lanthanide fission product species. The formation of this cladding wastage layer has been the focus of recent efforts to develop a mechanistic modeling framework, including production of lanthanides in the fuel, transport through the fuel to the fuel-cladding interface, and phase transformation to form intermetallic phases. To calculate the rate of transport of lanthanides through the fuel, a multi-scale computational approach has been used. Atomistic calculations have been performed to determine the diffusivities of Nd, the most prevalent lanthanide species, through the solid fuel matrix and along pore surfaces. These diffusivities have been used as input parameters for a mesoscale model to determine an effective diffusion coefficient that accounts for the formation of porosity, its interconnection, and infiltration with bond sodium from the fuel-cladding gap. The effective diffusivity has been used in engineering-scale simulations using the BISON fuel performance code, and BISON simulations have been compared to representative validation cases from the EBR-II reactor.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Interfacial and Confinement-Mediated Organization of Gas Hydrates, Water, Organic Fluids, and Nanoparticles for the Utilization of Subsurface Energy and Geological Resources

Harnessing the subsurface geologic environments in an efficient and environmentally sustainable manner is challenged by uncertainties associated with predicting the fate of fluids and sustaining porosity and permeability in subsurface geologic environments. Some of these uncertainties arise from confined and interfacially induced structures of fluids in subsurface geologic environments. The formation of gas hydrates, phase transitions of confined fluids, assembly and deposition of heavy hydrocarbons, and the agglomeration and fate of nanoparticles in confined environments are summarized in this review. Nanoscale confinement contributes to anisotropic structures and dynamics of fluids, which is the basis for anomalous phase transition thermodynamics, reactivity, transport, and geomechanical behavior. In this review, we discuss the structures of confined fluids and deviation in observed properties from bulk fluids. The factors influencing the structures of confined fluids can be generally divided into two groups: (a) pore characteristics including pore size, pore surface chemistry, and pore geometry and (b) confined fluid/solid characteristics such as molecular structure, concentrations, charges, pore filling, and presence of additives. Scientific advancements and knowledge gaps in our understanding of the structures of confined fluids and the associated differences in observed properties compared to bulk fluids are discussed. Here, the phenomena discussed in this review are of particular relevance to our efforts in harnessing the subsurface environments for a low carbon future by increasing the utilization of geothermal energy, using CO 2 as a working fluid, and storing CO 2 in subsurface geologic environments.

42 ENGINEERING↗

SMR Current Status: Development Needs and Global Perspectives

Defined as nuclear reactors with a power output up to 300 megawatts electrical (MWe) by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and targeted for multipurpose applications, small modular reactors (SMRs) have been recognized as a very promising, clean, affordable, and sustainable energy source by many countries. At present, more than 80 SMRs are under design, development, demonstration, deployment, and beyond (4D+) phases worldwide. This study focuses on the current world status of SMRs and focuses on the necessary developments to accelerate the process of adopting SMRs as a major energy source globally. SMRs are not a new concept, but they do represent a new vision for older concepts if the challenges inherent within them are mitigated with strategic and realistic solution approaches. The major challenges for SMRs 4D+ like any new reactors are: (a) qualifying the advanced fuel-to-reactor design; (b) supporting rapid scaled/prototypic experimentations; (c) maintaining local and global codes, standards, and licensing; (d) supply chain issues;(e) effective cradle-to-grave nuclear fuel cycle and fuel material transportation, and (f) mitigating financial and environmental risks. These upfront challenges can be mitigated with a synergistic solution approach among the various stakeholders: industry, academia, research, government, and international entities.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

Presentation: SMR Current Status: Development Needs and Global Perspectives

Defined as nuclear reactors with a power output up to 300 megawatts electrical (MWe) by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and targeted for multipurpose applications, small modular reactors (SMRs) have been recognized as a very promising, clean, affordable, and sustainable energy source by many countries. At present, more than 80 SMRs are under design, development, demonstration, deployment, and beyond (4D+) phases worldwide. This paper focuses on the current world status of SMRs and focuses on the necessary developments to accelerate the process of adopting SMRs as a major energy source globally. SMRs are not a new concept, but they do represent a new vision for older concepts if the challenges inherent within them are mitigated with strategic and realistic solution approaches. The major challenges for SMRs 4D+ like any new reactors are: (a) qualifying the advanced fuel-to-reactor design; (b) supporting rapid scaled/prototypic experimentations; (c) maintaining local and global codes, standards, and licensing; (d) supply chain issues; (e) effective cradle-to-grave nuclear fuel cycle and fuel material transportation, and (f) mitigating financial and environmental risks. These upfront challenges can be mitigated with a synergistic solution approach among the various stakeholders: industry, academia, research, government, and international entities.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

SMR Current Status: Development Needs and Global Perspectives

Defined as nuclear reactors with a power output up to 300 megawatts electrical (MWe) by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and targeted for multipurpose applications, small modular reactors (SMRs) have been recognized as a very promising, clean, affordable, and sustainable energy source by many countries. At present, more than 80 SMRs are under design, development, demonstration, deployment, and beyond (4D+) phases worldwide. This study focuses on the current world status of SMRs and focuses on the necessary developments to accelerate the process of adopting SMRs as a major energy source globally. SMRs are not a new concept, but they do represent a new vision for older concepts if the challenges inherent within them are mitigated with strategic and realistic solution approaches. The major challenges for SMRs 4D+ like any new reactors are: (a) qualifying the advanced fuel-to-reactor design; (b) supporting rapid scaled/prototypic experimentations; (c) maintaining local and global codes, standards, and licensing; (d) supply chain issues;(e) effective cradle-to-grave nuclear fuel cycle and fuel material transportation, and (f) mitigating financial and environmental risks. These upfront challenges can be mitigated with a synergistic solution approach among the various stakeholders: industry, academia, research, government, and international entities.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

Critical nuclei at hetero-phase interfaces

Two-step nucleation, in which a metastable intermediate phase acts as a precursor for nucleating a thermodynamically stable phase, has been widely observed in many materials systems and solid-state reactions. Among the advantages of two-step nucleation is that the stable phase may nucleate heterogeneously at the hetero-phase interface between the original and the precursory phases. Although heterogeneous nucleation (HN) theories for homo-phase grain boundaries and inert surfaces are well established, our understanding of HN at reactive hetero-phase interfaces remains incomplete. This deficiency stems from the discontinuity of the chemical potential driving force across the hetero-phase interface, which profoundly affects the fundamental properties of the nucleus in a way that is not properly accounted for in existing models. In this work, we incorporate these effects to extend the classical nucleation theory to HN at hetero-phase interfaces. Our extended model demonstrates that the nucleus shape along the minimum energy path is strongly size-dependent, and this additional degree of freedom can result in the reduction of the critical nucleus volume and associated activation energy barrier by orders of magnitude relative to conventional predictions. The simulation results are used to construct a sensitivity map in the parameter space of interfacial energy and bulk driving force ratios, which quantifies the difference in nucleation barriers predicted by different models.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Superconductivity in MgTa 2 S 5

Superconductivity in the new compound, MgTa 2 S 5 , is reported. Its crystal structure was indexed to space group $C$2/$m$, which is monoclinic with lattice parameters $a$ = 5.784(5) $\mathring{A}$, $b$ = 12.680(3) $\mathring{A}$, and $c$ = 6.106(5) $\mathring{A}$, with $β$ = 112.64°. Electrical resistivity reveals metallic behavior with $ρ$(296 K) = 5.2 mΩ cm and bulk superconductivity below $T$ $c$ = 1 K. Measurements of the specific heat C reveal the electronic specific heat coefficient $γ$ = 11.1(5) mJ/mol K 2 , a jump in $C$ at $T$ $c$ illustrating bulk superconductivity, and an energy gap associated with the superconducting state of $E$ $g$ = 0.25(3) meV. MgTa 2 S 5 can be classified as a BCS superconductor. In conclusion, an unidentified minority phase present in the sample (~ 4%) exhibits a superconducting phase transition near 2.6 K.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

FTO regulates myoblast proliferation by controlling CCND1 expression in an m6A-YTHDF2-dependent manner

Highlights: • Silencing FTO delays cell cycle and inhibits cell proliferation. • FTO regulates cell proliferation depending on its m{sup 6}A demethylation activity. • Silencing FTO suppresses CCND1 expression via YTHDF2-mediated mRNA degradation. • Knockdown YTHDF2 eliminates the cell cycle arrest in FTO-deficient cells. N6-Methyladenosine (m{sup 6}A) modification is the most abundant chemical modification in mRNA, and it participates in various biological processes, such as cell differentiation and proliferation. However, little is known about the function of m{sup 6}A demethylase fat mass and obesity-associated (FTO) in myoblast proliferation. Here, we demonstrated that knockdown of FTO can significantly inhibit myoblast proliferation and promote apoptosis. RNA sequencing analysis revealed that a lot of downregulated genes in FTO knockdown cells are associated with cell cycle and apoptosis. Furthermore, silencing FTO drastically decreased cyclin D1 (CCND1) expression through YTHDF2-mediated mRNA degradation, thereby delaying the progression of G1 phase, and leading to impaired myoblast proliferation. These findings unraveled that FTO regulates myoblast proliferation by controlling CCND1 expression in an m{sup 6}A-YTHDF2-dependent manner, which highlights the critical roles of m{sup 6}A modification in myoblast proliferation.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Genesis of Nanogalvanic Corrosion Revealed in Pearlitic Steel

Nanoscale, localized corrosion underpins billions of dollars in damage and material costs each year; however, the processes responsible have remained elusive due to the complexity of studying degradative material behavior at nanoscale liquid–solid interfaces. Recent improvements to liquid cell scanning/transmission electron microscopy and associated techniques enable this first look at the nanogalvanic corrosion processes underlying this widespread damage. Nanogalvanic corrosion is observed to initiate at the near-surface ferrite/cementite phase interfaces that typify carbon steel. In minutes, the corrosion front delves deeper into the material, claiming a thin layer of ferrite around all exposed phase boundaries before progressing laterally, converting the ferrite to corrosion product normal to each buried cementite grain. Over the following few minutes, the corrosion product that lines each cementite grain undergoes a volumetric expansion, creating a lateral wedging force that mechanically ejects the cementite grains from their grooves and leaves behind percolation channels into the steel substructure.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Precipitation regime changes in High Mountain Asia driven by cleaner air

High Mountain Asia (HMA) has experienced a spatial imbalance in water resources in recent decades, partly due to a dipolar pattern of precipitation changes known as South Drying-North Wetting. These changes can be influenced by both human activities and internal climate variability. While climate projections indicate a future widespread wetting trend over HMA, the timing and mechanism of the transition from a dipolar to a monopolar pattern remain unknown. Here, we demonstrate that the observed dipolar precipitation change in HMA during summer is primarily driven by westerly- and monsoon-associated precipitation patterns. The weakening of the Asian westerly jet, caused by uneven emission of anthropogenic aerosols, favors the dipolar precipitation trend during 1951-2020. Additionally, the phase transition of the interdecadal Pacific oscillation induces an out-of-phase precipitation change between the core region of the South Asian monsoon and southeastern HMA. Under medium or high emission scenarios, corresponding to a global warming of 0.6-1.1 °C compared to the present, the dipolar pattern is projected to shift into a monopolar wetting trend in the 2040s. This shift of precipitation patterns is mainly attributed to the intensified jet stream resulting from reduced emissions of anthropogenic aerosols. In conclusion, these findings underscore the importance of considering the impact of aerosol emission reduction in future social planning by policymakers.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Unravelling the mechanism of pressure induced polyamorphic transition in an inorganic molecular glass

The atomic structure of a germanium doped phosphorous selenide glass of composition Ge 2.8 P 57.7 Se 39.5 is determined as a function of pressure from ambient to 24 GPa using Monte-Carlo simulations constrained by high energy x-ray scattering data. The ambient pressure structure consists primarily of P 4 Se 3 molecules and planar edge shared phosphorus rings, reminiscent of those found in red phosphorous as well as a small fraction of locally clustered corner-sharing GeSe 4 tetrahedra. This low-density amorphous phase transforms into a high-density amorphous phase at ~6.3 GPa. The high-pressure phase is characterized by an extended network structure. The polyamorphic transformation between these two phases involves opening of the P 3 ring at the base of the P 4 Se 3 molecules and subsequent reaction with red phosphorus type moieties to produce a cross linked structure. The compression mechanism of the low-density phase involves increased molecular packing, whereas that of the high pressure phase involves an increase in the nearest-neighbor coordination number while the bond angle distributions broaden and shift to smaller angles. The entropy and volume changes associated with this polyamorphic transformation are positive and negative, respectively, and consequently the corresponding Clapeyron slope for this transition would be negative. This result has far reaching implications in our current understanding of the thermodynamics of polyamorphic transitions in glasses and glass-forming liquids.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Electron kinetics in a positive column of AC discharges in a dynamic regime

Abstract We have performed hybrid kinetic-fluid simulations of a positive column in alternating current (AC) argon discharges over a range of driving frequencies f and gas pressure p for the conditions when the spatial nonlocality of the electron energy distribution function (EEDF) is substantial. Our simulations confirmed that the most efficient conditions of plasma maintenance are observed in the dynamic regime when time modulations of mean electron energy (temperature) are substantial. The minimal values of the root mean square electric field and the electron temperature have been observed at f/p values of about 3 kHz Torr −1 in a tube of radius R = 1 cm. The ionization rate and plasma density reached maximal values under these conditions. The numerical solution of a kinetic equation allowed accounting for the kinetic effects associated with spatial and temporal nonlocality of the EEDF. Using the kinetic energy of electrons as an independent variable, we solved an anisotropic tensor diffusion equation in phase space. We clarified the role of different flux components during electron diffusion in phase space over surfaces of constant total energy. We have shown that the kinetic theory uncovers a more exciting and rich physics than the classical ambipolar diffusion (Schottky) model. Non-monotonic radial distributions of excitation rates, metastable densities, and plasma density have been observed in our simulations at pR > 6 Torr cm. The predicted off-axis plasma density peak in the dynamic regime has never been observed in experiments so far. We hope our results stimulate further experimental studies of the AC positive column. The kinetic analysis could help uncover new physics even for such a well-known plasma object as a positive column in noble gases.

Physics↗

Emulating inconsistencies in stratospheric aerosol injection

Abstract Stratospheric aerosol injection (SAI) would involve the addition of sulfate aerosols in the stratosphere to reflect part of the incoming solar radiation, thereby cooling the climate. Studies trying to explore the impacts of SAI have often focused on idealized scenarios without explicitly introducing what we call ‘inconsistencies’ in a deployment. A concern often discussed is what would happen to the climate system after an abrupt termination of its deployment, whether inadvertent or deliberate. However, there is a much wider range of plausible inconsistencies in deployment than termination that should be evaluated to better understand associated risks. In this work, we simulate a few representative inconsistencies in a pre-existing SAI scenario: an abrupt termination, a decade-long gradual phase-out, and 1 year and 2 year temporary interruptions of deployment. After examining their climate impacts, we use these simulations to train an emulator, and use this to project global mean temperature response for a broader set of inconsistencies in deployment. Our work highlights the capacity of a finite set of explicitly simulated scenarios that include inconsistencies to inform an emulator that is capable of expanding the space of scenarios that one might want to explore far more quickly and efficiently.

Farley, Jared (ORCID:0000000322062272)↗