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At least 1,009 records · Page 56

Rnf112 deletion protects brain against intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH) in mice by inhibiting TLR-4/NF-κB pathway

Highlights: • Rnf112{sup −/−} mice exhibits accelerated brain injury and neuroinflammation. • Rnf112{sup −/−} promotes inflammation by enhancing TLR-4/NF-κB pathway. • Over-expressing Rnf112 attenuates brain injury after intracerebral hemorrhage. Intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH) is reported as a common and often fatal type of stroke accompanied with high morbidity and mortality, and it frequently results in long-lasting neurological dysfunctions. However, the pathogenesis that contributes to ICH has not been fully understood. Rnf112, also known as Znf179, is a member of the RING finger protein family. The expression of Rnf112 is abundant in the brain and is modulated during brain progression and development. The study aimed to explore the role of Rnf112 in brain injury after ICH, as well as the underlying molecular mechanisms. The results indicated that ICH led to a significant decrease in Rnf112, which was confirmed in oxyhemoglobin (oxyHb)-incubated astrocytes and microglial cells. Moreover, the Rnf112 knockout (Rnf112{sup −/−}) mice and wild type (WT) mice induced by ICH were further employed. Compared to the WT/ICH group, Rnf112{sup −/−} mice exhibited accelerated brain injury, as evidenced by the increased brain water contents and neurological deficit scores (NDS). In comparison to WT/ICH group, a remarkable up-regulation in the release of pro-inflammatory cytokines, including tumor necrotic factor-α (TNF-α), interleukin-6 (IL-6), and IL-1β, was observed in perihematoma tissues of Rnf112{sup −/−} mice on day 3 post-ICH. The process was along with promoted glial fibrillary acidic protein (GFAP) and Iba1 expression and reduced NeuN levels. Furthermore, ICH-induced increases in toll-like receptor (TLR)-4 and myeloid differentiation primary response protein (MyD88) expression were exacerbated by the loss of Rnf112. The phosphorylated expression of IKKα, inhibitor of NF-κB (IκBα) and nuclear factor-kappa B (NF-κB) induced by ICH in perihematoma tissues of mice was markedly enhanced in Rnf112{sup −/−} mice. Rnf112 repression-induced inflammatory response was verified in lipopolysaccharide (LPS)-incubated glial cells. In contrast, over-expressing Rnf112 markedly attenuated ICH-induced brain injury by restraining inflammation via inactivating TLR-4/NF-κB pathway. In summary, our findings suggested that Rnf112 expression was highly involved in the progression of ICH, and targeting Rnf112 signaling might be a promising therapeutic strategy against ICH development.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Inhibition of cardiac hypertrophy by aromadendrin through down-regulating NFAT and MAPKs pathways

Highlights: • Aromadendrin prevented cardiac hypertrophy and dysfunction after pressure-overload. • ARO suppressed protein synthesis and fetal gene reactivation in vitro. • ARO attenuated cardiac fibrosis and oxidative stress in cardiac hypertrophy. • ARO suppressed NFAT nuclear translocation and inhibited MAPKs pathway activations. • ARO has the potential application prospects for cardiac hypertrophy treatment. Cardiac hypertrophy is a maladaptive response to pressure overload and it's an important risk factor for heart failure and other adverse cardiovascular events. Aromadendrin (ARO) has remarkable anti-lipid peroxidation efficacy and is a potential therapeutic medicine for the management of diabetes and cardiovascular diseases. In this study, we established the cardiac hypertrophy cell model in rat neonatal ventricular cardiomyocytes (RNVMs) with phenylephrine. The cell model was characterized by the increased protein synthesis and cardiomyocyte size, which can be normalized by ARO treatment in both concentration- and time-dependent manner. In transverse aortic constriction (TAC) induced cardiac hypertrophy model, ARO administration improved the impairment of cardiac function and alleviated the cardiac hypertrophy indicators, like ventricular mass/body weight, myocyte cross-sectional area, and the expression of ANP, BNP and Myh7. ARO treatment also suppressed the cardiac fibrosis and the correlated fibrogenic genes. Our further investigation revealed ARO could down-regulate pressure overload-induced Malondialdehyde (MDA) and 4-HNE expression, restore the decrease of GSH/GSSG ratio, meanwhile prevent nuclear translocation of NFAT and the activation of MAPKs pathways. Collectively, ARO has a protective effect against experimental cardiac hypertrophy in mice, suggesting its potential as a novel therapeutic drug for pathological cardiac hypertrophy.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Studying biomineralization pathways in a 3D culture model of breast cancer microcalcifications

Microcalcifications serve as diagnostic markers for breast cancer, yet their formation pathway(s) and role in cancer progression are debated due in part to a lack of relevant 3D culture models that allow studying the extent of cellular regulation over mineralization. Previous studies have suggested processes ranging from dystrophic mineralization associated with cell death to bone-like mineral deposition. In this paper, we evaluated microcalcification formation in 3D multicellular spheroids, generated from non-malignant, pre-cancer, and invasive cell lines from the MCF10A human breast tumor progression series. The spheroids with greater malignancy potential developed necrotic cores, thus recapitulating spatially distinct viable and non-viable areas known to regulate cellular behavior in tumors in vivo. The spatial distribution of the microcalcifications, as well as their compositions, were characterized using nanoCT, electron-microscopy, and X-ray spectroscopy. Apatite microcalcifications were primarily detected within the viable cell regions and their number and size increased with malignancy potential of the spheroids. Levels of alkaline phosphatase decreased with malignancy potential, whereas levels of osteopontin increased. Finally, these findings support a mineralization pathway in which cancer cells induce mineralization in a manner that is linked to their malignancy potential, but that is distinct from physiological osteogenic mineralization.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Correlating furfural reaction pathways with interactions between furfural and monometallic surfaces

Controlling the selectivity of furfural reaction is an important step towards valorizing this important platform chemical in biomass conversion. Previous studies speculate that the selectivity of furfural reaction depends on the interactions of furan ring with metal surfaces. In this work, high resolution electron energy loss spectroscopy (HREELS) and temperature programmed desorption (TPD) are employed to directly study the correlations between furfural reaction pathways and interactions between furfural and different monometallic surfaces. Monometallic surfaces with strong ring interactions favor ring-opening products, while monometallic surfaces with weak ring interactions favor furan production. Oxophilic metal surface like Fe(110) promotes the hydrodeoxygenation pathway to produce 2-methylfuran due to strong interaction with the carbonyl group. Furthermore, these results should provide guidance in the future catalyst design for converting furfural to value-added products.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Mechanistic pathways and role of oxygen in oxidative coupling of methane derived from transient kinetic studies

Oxidative coupling of methane (OCM) is a promising industrial process to upgrade natural gas to high value chemicals. In this study, Temporal Analysis of Products (TAP) and steady-state experiments were conducted to distinguish how the composition of surface and gas phase oxygen influence mechanistic details of the selective conversion of CH 4 to C 2 H 4 over the Mn-Na 2 WO 4 /SiO 2 catalyst. The results from TAP studies indicate that methane activation on this catalyst proceeds predominantly via a short-lived, transient surface oxygen species and there is a competition for this species to form either CO or methyl radicals on the surface. This active species has a total lifetime of 3 s and is identified to have a dioxygen (e.g. O 2 2- or O 2 -) form. We show that the concentration of the transient surface oxygen species significantly impacts the OCM performance. Oxygen attributed to the catalyst lattice (in a singular form e.g., O - ), is found to activate methane to a lesser degree, but exclusively forms CO 2 . Evidence for these surface pathways for methyl radical, CO and CO 2 formation identified by TAP are also validated through steady-state experiments. Finally, by distinguishing different catalyst oxygen species and their role in selective/nonselective pathways, important screening criteria have been identified for the advancement of superior catalyst formulations.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Dual aging pathways of Cu-SSZ-13 SCR catalysts: Hydrothermal vs. sulfur-induced deactivation

Hydrothermal aging (HTA) and chemical poisoning are two primary factors contributing to the real-world degradation of Cu-SSZ-13 SCR catalysts. Investigating field-returned samples offers valuable insights into performance degradation caused by these mechanisms. However, the simultaneous presence of both deactivation pathways complicates the isolation of their individual effects in post-mortem analyses. In this study, we separately prepared model Cu-SSZ-13 SCR catalysts subjected to hydrothermal-aging and sulfur-induced chemical poisoning. Using various characterization techniques, we elucidated the specific role of each aging process in catalyst deactivation and compared the results to real-world field-aged catalysts. Our findings show that hydrothermal aging at 650 °C for 100 h caused dealumination of the zeolite framework but no significant CuO x cluster formation. In contrast, sulfur aging (via sulfur exposure, calcination at 550 °C, and desulfation up to 750 °C) led to CuO x formation without any observable dealumination. On model catalysts, sulfur poisoning was found to reduce Cu mobility and the amount of active Cu sites, thus degrading catalyst activity. Although some activity was recovered upon desulfation, a portion of the initial catalyst activity remained irreversibly lost due to CuO x formation. We demonstrate that this occurs because sulfated species impede the ability of multi-nuclear Cu species (e.g., Cu dimers) to split back into their isolated form, leading to CuSO 4 -clusters that oxidatively desulfate to CuO x species. This degradation pathway explains the significant reduction in activity of field-aged samples, where substantial CuSO 4 -cluster accumulation leads to reduced active Cu and subsequent conversion to CuO x . Furthermore, the conclusions from model catalysts were extended directly to field-aged commercial samples, elucidating the decline in activity and chemical properties during field deployment.

Catalyst Deactivation↗

Multiplexed fitness profiling by RB-TnSeq elucidates pathways for lignin-related aromatic catabolism in Sphingobium sp. SYK-6

Bioconversion of lignin-related aromatic compounds relies on robust catabolic pathways in microbes. Sphingobium sp. SYK-6 (SYK-6) is a well-characterized aromatic catabolic organism that has served as a model for microbial lignin conversion, and its utility as a biocatalyst could potentially be further improved by genome-wide metabolic analyses. To this end, we generate a randomly barcoded transposon insertion mutant (RB-TnSeq) library to study gene function in SYK-6. The library is enriched under dozens of enrichment conditions to quantify gene fitness. Several known aromatic catabolic pathways are confirmed, and RB-TnSeq affords additional detail on the genome-wide effects of each enrichment condition. Selected genes are further examined in SYK-6 or Pseudomonas putida KT2440, leading to the identification of new gene functions. The findings from this study further elucidate the metabolism of SYK-6, while also providing targets for future metabolic engineering in this organism or other hosts for the biological valorization of lignin.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Spectroscopic investigations on structural incorporation pathways of FeIII into zeolite frameworks in cement-relevant environments

Fe{sup III}-containing aluminosilicate zeolites are present in cement-relevant and natural environments. Although Fe{sup III} is known to occur in framework tetrahedral sites where it substitutes isomorphically Al{sup III}O{sub 4} or in extra-framework octahedral sites as free Fe(H{sub 2}O){sub 6}{sup 3+}, the structural incorporation process of Fe{sup III} into different sites is little known. We aim to discern feasible pathways of Fe{sup III} incorporation using hydrothermal synthesis methods and synchrotron-based spectroscopic analyses. Results showed that introducing either Fe{sup 3+} or Fe{sub 2}O{sub 3}·xH{sub 2}O initially during zeolite nucleation did not lead to Fe{sup III} incorporation into the zeolites but only Fe{sub 2}O{sub 3}·xH{sub 2}O prevailed in both cases. However, Fe(NO{sub 3}){sub 3}, FeCl{sub 3}, and Fe{sub 2}O{sub 3}·xH{sub 2}O affected the kind of zeolite formed. A feasible pathway to incorporate tetrahedral Fe{sup III} in the zeolite framework was to introduce firstly Fe{sup III} in the cage of faujasite-Y followed by a phase transformation to chabazite. This study facilitates understanding of Fe{sup III} uptake in zeolites and of Fe{sup III} functional sites that can contribute to immobilization of contaminants.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Additional chain-branching pathways in the low-temperature oxidation of branched alkanes

Chain-branching reactions represent a general motif in chemistry, encountered in atmospheric chemistry, combustion, polymerization, and photochemistry; the nature and amount of radicals generated by chain-branching are decisive for the reaction progress, its energy signature, and the time towards its completion. In this study, experimental evidence for two new types of chain-branching reactions is presented, based upon detection of highly oxidized multifunctional molecules (HOM) formed during the gas-phase low-temperature oxidation of a branched alkane under conditions relevant to combustion. The oxidation of 2,5-dimethylhexane (DMH) in a jet-stirred reactor (JSR) was studied using synchrotron vacuum ultra-violet photoionization molecular beam mass spectrometry (SVUV-PI-MBMS). Specifically, species with four and five oxygen atoms were probed, having molecular formulas of C 8 H 14 O 4 (e.g., diketo-hydroperoxide/keto-hydroperoxy cyclic ether) and C 8 H 16 O 5 (e.g., keto-dihydroperoxide/dihydroperoxy cyclic ether), respectively. The formation of C 8 H 16 O 5 species involves alternative isomerization of OOQOOH radicals via intramolecular H-atom migration, followed by third O 2 addition, intramolecular isomerization, and OH release; C 8 H 14 O 4 species are proposed to result from subsequent reactions of C 8 H 16 O 5 species. The mechanistic pathways involving these species are related to those proposed as a source of low-volatility highly oxygenated species in Earth's troposphere. At the higher temperatures relevant to auto-ignition, they can result in a net increase of hydroxyl radical production, so these are additional radical chain-branching pathways for ignition. Furthermore, the results presented herein extend the conceptual basis of reaction mechanisms used to predict the reaction behavior of ignition, and have implications on atmospheric gas-phase chemistry and the oxidative stability of organic substances.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Effect of turbulence–chemistry interactions on chemical pathways for turbulent hydrogen–air premixed flames

This paper considers the kinetic pathways of hydrogen oxidation in turbulent, premixed H 2 –air flames. It assesses the relative roles of different reaction steps in H 2 oxidation relative to laminar flames, and the degree to which turbulence–chemistry interactions alters the well understood oxidation pathway that exist in laminar flames. This is done by analyzing the turbulent, lean (Φ = 0.4), H 2 –air flame DNS database from Aspden et al. [17]. The relative roles of dominant reaction steps in heat release and radical formation/consumption are analyzed at different Karlovitz numbers and compared with laminar stretched flame calculations from counterflow flames and perfectly stirred reactors. It is found that both the progress variable conditioned and spatially integrated contributions of the dominant reactions remain qualitatively similar between a highly turbulent and a laminar unstretched flame. Larger changes, up to a factor of about two, occur in the relative roles of reactions with secondary influences on heat release and radical production/consumption. These results suggest that the kinetic routes through which H 2 is oxidized remain essentially constant between laminar, unstretched flames and high Karlovitz number flames.

Premixed flames↗

Revealing the critical role of radical-involved pathways in high temperature cyclopentanone pyrolysis

Cyclopentanone (CPO) is a promising biofuel for spark-ignition engines due to its ring strain and high auto-ignition resistance. Understanding CPO decomposition is crucial for building a high-temperature combustion model. Here we present a comprehensive kinetic model for high-temperature pyrolysis of CPO with verified results from high-pressure shock tube (HPST) measurements. The time- histories of carbon monoxide (CO), ethylene (C 2 H 4 ), and CPO absorbances over the temperature range of 1156-1416 K and pressure range of 8.53-10.06 atm were measured during current experiments. A corresponding detailed kinetic model was generated using the Reaction Mechanism Generator (RMG) with dominant unimolecular/radical-involved decomposition pathways from either previous studies or quantum calculations within the current work. The obtained model containing 821 species and 79,859 reactions exhibited a good agreement with the experimental results. In this study, the absorbance ratio between C 2 H 4 and CO was used as an important factor to validate models and to prove that radical-involved bimolecular pathways were as significant as unimolecular decomposition of CPO. The rate of production (ROP) analysis showed H radicals play a major role in the decomposition, and the whole decomposition process could be divided into three stages based on the H radical concentration. Finally, the insights from present work can be used to generate a better CPO combustion model and help evaluate CPO as an advanced biofuel.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Motif-centric phosphoproteomics to target kinase-mediated signaling pathways

Identifying cellular phosphorylation pathways based on kinase-substrate relationships is a critical step to understanding the regulation of physiological functions in cells. Mass spectrometry-based phosphoproteomics workflows have made it possible to comprehensively collect information on individual phosphorylation sites in a variety of samples. However, there is still no generic approach to uncover phosphorylation networks based on kinase-substrate relationships in rare cell populations. Here, we describe a motif-centric phosphoproteomics approach combined with multiplexed isobaric labeling, in which in vitro kinase reactions are used to generate targeted phosphopeptides, which are spiked into one of the isobaric channels to increase detectability. Proof-of-concept experiments demonstrate selective and comprehensive quantification of targeted phosphopeptides by using multiple kinases for motif-centric channels. More than 7,000 tyrosine phosphorylation sites were quantified from several tens of micrograms of starting materials. This approach enables the quantification of multiple phosphorylation pathways under physiological or pathological regulation in a motif-centric manner.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Transcriptional pathways linked to fetal and maternal hepatic dysfunction caused by gestational exposure to perfluorooctanoic acid (PFOA) or hexafluoropropylene oxide-dimer acid (HFPO-DA or GenX) in CD-1 mice

Per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) comprise a diverse class of chemicals used in industrial processes, consumer products, and fire-fighting foams which have become environmental pollutants of concern due to their persistence, ubiquity, and associations with adverse human health outcomes, including in pregnant persons and their offspring. Multiple PFAS are associated with adverse liver outcomes in adult humans and toxicological models, but effects on the developing liver are not fully described. Here we performed transcriptomic analyses in the mouse to investigate the molecular mechanisms of hepatic toxicity in the dam and its fetus after exposure to two different PFAS, perfluorooctanoic acid (PFOA) and its replacement, hexafluoropropylene oxide-dimer acid (HFPO-DA, known as GenX). Pregnant CD-1 mice were exposed via oral gavage from embryonic day (E) 1.5-17.5 to PFOA (0, 1, or 5 mg/kg-d) or GenX (0, 2, or 10 mg/kg-d). Maternal and fetal liver RNA was isolated (N = 5 per dose/group) and the transcriptome analyzed by Affymetrix Array. Differentially expressed genes (DEG) and differentially enriched pathways (DEP) were obtained. DEG patterns were similar in maternal liver for 5 mg/kg PFOA, 2 mg/kg GenX, and 10 mg/kg GenX (R2: 0.46-0.66). DEG patterns were similar across all 4 dose groups in fetal liver (R2: 0.59-0.81). There were more DEGs in fetal liver compared to maternal liver at the low doses for both PFOA (fetal = 69, maternal = 8) and GenX (fetal = 154, maternal = 93). Upregulated DEPs identified across all groups included Fatty Acid Metabolism, Peroxisome, Oxidative Phosphorylation, Adipogenesis, and Bile Acid Metabolism. Transcriptome-phenotype correlation analyses demonstrated > 1000 maternal liver DEGs were significantly correlated with maternal relative liver weight (R 2 >0.92). These findings show shared biological pathways of liver toxicity for PFOA and GenX in maternal and fetal livers in CD-1 mice. The limited overlap in specific DEGs between the dam and fetus suggests the developing liver responds differently than the adult liver to these chemical stressors. This work helps define mechanisms of hepatic toxicity of two structurally unique PFAS and may help predict latent consequences of developmental exposure.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Carbon management technology pathways for reaching a U.S. Economy-Wide net-Zero emissions goal

The Carbon Management Study Group of the 37 th Energy Modeling Forum (EMF 37) designed seven scenarios to explore the role of three potentially key technology suites – point source carbon dioxide capture and storage (PSCCS), direct air capture of carbon dioxide (DACCS), and hydrogen systems (H 2 ) – in shaping the broader technology pathways to reaching net-zero carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions in United States by 2050. Each scenario was run by up to 13 models participating in the EMF 37 study. Results show that carbon dioxide removal technologies were consistently a major part of successful pathways to net-zero U.S. CO 2 emissions in 2050. Achieving this net-zero CO 2 goal without any form of carbon dioxide capture and storage was found to be impossible for most models; some models also found it impossible to reach net-zero without DACCS. The marginal cost of achieving net-zero CO 2 emissions in 2050 was between two and 10 times higher without PSCCS and/or DACCS available. The carbon price at which DACCS was deployed as a backstop technology depended upon the assumed cost at which DACCS was available at scale. Carbon prices were between $\$$250 and $\$$500 per ton CO 2 when DACCS deployed as a backstop. The average CO 2 capture rate across all models in 2050 in the central net-zero scenario was 1.3 GtCO 2 /year, which implies a substantial upscaling of capacity to move and store CO 2 . Finally, hydrogen sensitivity scenarios showed that H 2 typically constituted a relatively small share of the overall U.S. energy system; however, H 2 deployed in applications that are considered hard to decarbonize, facilitating transition towards net-zero emissions.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Pathways for decarbonization of the buildings sector in Ukraine

The paper focuses on Ukraine’s intention to achieve a two-thirds reduction in buildings’ energy consumption for heating and cooling by 2050, concurrently aiming for net zero greenhouse gas emissions and heightened energy security. Here, the study examines the outcomes of retrofitting existing residential, commercial, and public buildings with highly efficient materials, improving construction standards, and transitioning to advanced heating systems. However, Russia’s invasion in 2022 inflicted substantial damage, prompting a shift from retrofit and decarbonization to reconstruction. The Ukrainian government’s Reconstruction Plan emphasizes clean, sustainable, and resilient energy systems. The study employs energy system and integrated assessment models (TIMES-Ukraine and GCAM-Ukraine) to explore scenarios taking into consideration the war, reconstruction, and a net zero CO 2 pathway. Using two models allowed the inter-model comparison. The analysis addresses vital questions on energy resiliency measures and the compounding effects of decarbonization. Findings indicate that Ukraine’s energy goals can be met through strategic retrofitting and economy-wide decarbonization, emphasizing the importance of low-carbon alternatives like district heating with renewable sources. Electrification with renewables and fuel-switching emerges as crucial for achieving building decarbonization. The study offers valuable insights into navigating energy challenges amidst the war and outlines a pathway for Ukraine’s sustainable energy future.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Energy System Transitions and Low-Emission Pathways in Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, EU-28, India, Indonesia, Japan, Republic of Korea, Russia, and United States

The Paris Agreement invited Parties to submit long-term, low-emission development strategies. This study presents national low-emission scenarios to inform such strategies for Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, EU, India, Indonesia, Japan, Russia, Republic of Korea and the USA. The study uses country-level energy–economy and integrated assessment models (IAMs) that incorporate detailed and disaggregated representations of the energy demand and supply systems that are difficult to capture in global IAMs. Models were used to explore low-carbon pathways up to 2050, providing insights in their implications for country emissions, energy system restructuring, energy–economy indicators and system costs. The analysis shows that the low-carbon scenarios of most economies studied here are consistent with pathways limiting global warming to below 2 °C.

Fragkos, Panagiotis↗

A techno-economic assessment framework for hydrogen energy storage toward multiple energy delivery pathways and grid services

Hydrogen energy storage (HES) transforms and stores electric energy from the grid into hydrogen, and supplements other energy storage and demand response resources in addressing challenges in renewable-intensive power systems. Understanding how to optimally utilize an HES system to maximize its economic benefits from stacked value streams is highly important to its development and deployment. Here, in this paper, we present a techno-economic assessment framework for an HES system considering three common energy delivery pathways and multiple grid and end-user services. Models are developed to capture the operational capability, flexibility, and constraints associated with hydrogen production, compression, storage, and utilization as well as different grid services in an economic assessment. To define the technically achievable benefits, an optimal dispatch formulation is proposed to maximize the economic benefits over a representative year with an hourly time step considering the trade-offs among different value streams. Representative case studies are designed and carried out to show how system configuration, energy delivery pathways, and grid services may affect economic benefits. It was found that value streams from bundling grid services account for up to 76% of the total benefits and are critical for an HES project to be financially viable.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Climate impacts on hydropower in Colombia: A multi-model assessment of power sector adaptation pathways

There is uncertainty as to how climate change will affect hydropower generation in different regions of the world. In drying regions, impaired hydropower production could result in significant changes to the power sector implying new plants to be installed to make up for lost hydropower generation. In this article we apply two partial equilibrium models (TIAM-ECN and GCAM) and two general equilibrium models (Phoenix and MEG4C) to identify possible pathways of power sector adaptation for Colombia under climate change scenarios that reflect altered water inflow to hydropower reservoirs. Each model is run for two emissions policy scenarios and for a dry and moderate climate projection. Planned hydropower expansion for Colombia is insufficient to meet increased power demands as the country's economy grows; the contribution of hydropower to Colombia's power supply drops from ~65% currently to 30 - 50 % by 2050 depending on energy model and scenario. Climate change reduces this by a further 5 - 10 % under the dry climate projection. Climate-driven losses in hydropower will be compensated by an expansion of alternative technologies, which vary significantly across models. When climate policy is implemented, three distinct pathways emerge: expanding the electricity production from solar and wind energy (TIAM-ECN); reducing overall power demand hence exploiting savings and efficiencies (Phoenix and MEG4C); and expanding the use of fossil resources—primarily natural gas— complemented with carbon dioxide capture and storage (GCAM).

Arango, Santiago↗