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At least 1,009 records · Page 56

Multi‐Sensor Trajectory Reconstruction of the 24 April 2025 Alaska Fireball and Implications for Planetary Defense

On 24 April 2025 at 18:30:57 UTC, a bright daytime fireball over Southcentral Alaska was detected by 37 seismic stations, 16 single infrasound sensors, and four infrasound arrays, yielding 30 ballistic and multiple fragmentation arrivals. Here, the unprecedented density of seismoacoustic coverage enabled detailed reconstruction of the event using acoustic signals, with fragmentation source locations further guiding the identification of Doppler weather radar signatures of a meteorite fall. Incorporation of a radar-derived terminal point yielded a final trajectory solution, which agreed closely with an independent optical trajectory solution from video analysis. The reconstructed entry parameters from seismoacoustic analysis indicate a velocity of 25.3 km/s, an entry angle of 19°, and an energy release of ∼38 t TNT equivalent. Assuming a chondritic composition, the pre-entry object diameter was ∼0.7 m. Using orbital parameters from the optical solution, we estimate meteoroid composition as most likely an L-type ordinary chondrite. The event occurred in the sub-Arctic, where space-based optical systems face challenges in detection, demonstrating the critical role of dense ground-based seismoacoustic networks in characterizing high-latitude atmospheric entries. This uniquely well-recorded event demonstrates the capability of dense seismoacoustic networks to constrain bolide trajectories, energetics, and fragmentation, with radar and optical data providing critical confirmation and complementary perspectives. These results bridge the methodological gap between planetary-defense monitoring of natural impactors and space-traffic analyses of artificial reentries, illustrating how multi-sensor integration can deliver calibration-grade trajectories even for unpredicted events.

Fireball↗

Characterization of volcanic tuff pores pre- and post-underground nuclear detonation using ultra-small and small angle neutron scattering

The ability to accurately model the subsurface transport of radionuclides is fundamental to the remote detection and characterization of underground nuclear explosion (UNE) events. Developing more sophisticated transport models presents a significant opportunity to enhance monitoring capabilities, particularly in the reliable prediction of signature migration. Experimentally determined characterization of geologic materials associated with transport properties is the pertinent base information for such robust model development and calibration. Here, we report results from an unprecedented study demonstrating changes to the pore and fracture network structures in geological materials in response to UNEs over nanometer to micrometer length scales. Volcanic tuffs of five different lithological formations from pre- and post-UNE environments were collected from the Nevada National Security Site. Combined ultra-small and small-angle neutron scattering techniques were used to characterize the tuff pore structure. The results demonstrate measurable differences in the specific surface area and porosity of samples pre- and post-shot from texturally similar lithological formations, indicating that pore properties can serve as a direct physical signature of a UNE. The results also provide experimentally determined transport parameters in support of advanced model development through the integration of gas migration, hydrodynamic simulations, and geologic framework models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

A&L Annual Report: GRM-MAPS

Exploding Bridge Wire (EBW) is an important design for initiating detonators relevant to several LLNL systems. In such designs, a metal bridge wire is in direct contact with a porous secondary high explosive (HE), typically pressed to around 50% of its crystalline density. Initiation is believed to occur through shock waves generated when the bridge wire is made to explode via the rapid passing of a strong current pulse. Permeametry is an important characterization tool for the porous powdered HE (PETN, HMX, etc.) component in such devices. Such powders are well known to coarsen with age, with an accompanying deterioration in performance, which includes increased function time and sensitivity. Among various material characteristics, one that has been shown to correlate the most with such performance parameters is the flow-permeable surface area (FSSA), measured using air-permeametry. Commercially available permeametry apparatuses, such as that from Fisher Scientific or a more modern version from Micromeritics suffer from a few drawbacks, most notably as related to monitoring age-related changes in FSSA. This is because it requires re-compaction of the aged powder into the permeametry tube, which in most cases leads to an unwanted increase in FSSA. To address this and a few other shortcomings, we have been developing a modern version of the permeameter, Gee-Reinstein-Maiti Modern Air-Permeametry System (GRM-MAPS). In this report, we summarize progress made in FY25 toward perfecting and calibrating the instrument, which we aim at deploying within surveillance in FY26.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Disruption of Dark Matter Minihalos in the Milky Way Environment: Implications for Axion Miniclusters and Early Matter Domination

Many theories of dark matter beyond the weakly interacting massive particles paradigm feature an enhanced matter power spectrum on subparsec scales, leading to the formation of dense dark matter minihalos. Future local observations are promising to search for and constrain such substructures. The survival probability of these dense minihalos in the Milky Way environment is crucial for interpreting local observations. In this work, we investigate two environmental effects: stellar disruption and (smooth) tidal disruption. These two mechanisms are studied using semianalytic models and idealized N-body simulations. For stellar disruption, we perform a series of N-body simulations of isolated minihalo–star encounters to test and calibrate analytic models of stellar encounters before applying the model to the realistic Milky Way disk environment. For tidal disruption, we perform N-body simulations to confirm the effectiveness of the analytic treatment. Finally, we propose a framework to combine the hierarchical assembly and infall of minihalos to the Milky Way with the late-time disruption mechanisms. We make predictions for the mass functions of minihalos in the Milky Way. The mass survival fraction (at M$_{mh}$ ≥ 10$^{−12}$M$_{⊙}$) of dense dark matter minihalos, e.g., for axion miniclusters and minihalos from early matter domination, is ∼60% with the relatively low-mass, compact population surviving. The survival fraction is insensitive to the detailed model parameters. We discuss various implications of the framework and future direct detection prospects.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Measurement of mean excitation energies of neutrino-relevant materials

Modern neutrino experiments require precision reconstruction of events. A crucial component of this reconstruction is the stopping power for charged particles, calculated using the Bethe equation. The main free parameter of the Bethe equation is the mean excitation energy (the "I-value"), which in most cases cannot be calculated, but must be measured for each substance. In many cases, the values are derived from very old experiments with large quoted uncertainties, or worse, small quoted uncertainties and inadequate treatment of systematics. Even if the tabulated values were reliable to the necessary degree, the I-value is affected by the phase of the substance and by chemical bonding, and only rough heuristics have been developed to convert measurements of single elements into I-values for compounds or from one phase to another. Modern neutrino experiments which need to measure an absolute energy scale, while lacking calibration sources, suffer the most from uncertainties in the I-value. DUNE is a primary example. We are performing measurements with the 400MeV Fermilab LINAC beam at the Irradiation Test Facility. We describe our efforts to measure the I-value of liquid argon, as well as those for several other materials used in past, present and potential future neutrino experiments, including water, NOvA scintillator, MINOS steel, zirconium, and molybdenum. These measurements use a set of degraders to scan the beam energy around the Bragg peak for each substance to determine the proton range. Experimental results are compared to results from Geant4 and FLUKA to determine the I-value.

Strait, Matthew L. [Fermilab] (ORCID:0000000157088↗

Cholesky-based experimental design for Gaussian process and kernel-based emulation and calibration.

Gaussian processes and other kernel-based methods are used extensively to construct approximations of multivariate data sets. The accuracy of these approximations is dependent on the data used. This paper presents a computationally efficient algorithm to greedily select training samples that minimize the weighted L p error of kernel-based approximations for a given number of data. The method successively generates nested samples, with the goal of minimizing the error in high probability regions of densities specified by users. The algorithm presented is extremely simple and can be implemented using existing pivoted Cholesky factorization methods. Training samples are generated in batches which allows training data to be evaluated (labeled) in parallel. For smooth kernels, the algorithm performs comparably with the greedy integrated variance design but has significantly lower complexity. Numerical experiments demonstrate the efficacy of the approach for bounded, unbounded, multi-modal and non-tensor product densities. We also show how to use the proposed algorithm to efficiently generate surrogates for inferring unknown model parameters from data using Bayesian inference.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

A synthetic building operation dataset

Abstract This paper presents a synthetic building operation dataset which includes HVAC, lighting, miscellaneous electric loads (MELs) system operating conditions, occupant counts, environmental parameters, end-use and whole-building energy consumptions at 10-minute intervals. The data is created with 1395 annual simulations using the U.S. DOE detailed medium-sized reference office building, and 30 years’ historical weather data in three typical climates including Miami, San Francisco, and Chicago. Three energy efficiency levels of the building and systems are considered. Assumptions regarding occupant movements, occupants’ diverse temperature preferences, lighting, and MELs are adopted to reflect realistic building operations. A semantic building metadata schema - BRICK, is used to store the building metadata. The dataset is saved in a 1.2 TB of compressed HDF5 file. This dataset can be used in various applications, including building energy and load shape benchmarking, energy model calibration, evaluation of occupant and weather variability and their influences on building performance, algorithm development and testing for thermal and energy load prediction, model predictive control, policy development for reinforcement learning based building controls.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

CERES MODIS Cloud Product Retrievals for Edition 4--Part I: Algorithm Changes

The Edition 2 (Ed2) cloud property retrieval algorithm system was upgraded and applied to the MODerate-resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data for the Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES) Edition 4 (Ed4) products. New calibrations for solar channels and the use of the 1.24-μm channel for cloud optical depth (COD) over snow improve the daytime consistency between Terra and Aqua MODIS retrievals. Use of additional spectral channels and revised logic enhanced the cloud-top phase retrieval accuracy. A new ice crystal reflectance model and a CO₂-channel algorithm retrieved higher ice clouds, while a new regional lapse rate technique produced more accurate water cloud heights than in Ed2. Ice cloud base heights are more accurate due to a new cloud thickness parameterization. Overall, CODs increased, especially over the polar (PO) regions. The mean particle sizes increased slightly for water clouds, but more so for ice clouds in the PO areas. New experimental parameters introduced in Ed4 are limited in utility, but will be revised for the next CERES edition. As part of the Ed4 retrieval evaluation, the average properties are compared with those from other algorithms and the differences between individual reference data and matched Ed4 retrievals are explored. Part II of this article provides a comprehensive, objective evaluation of selected parameters. More accurate interpretation of the CERES radiation measurements has resulted from the use of the Ed4 cloud properties.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

pyFLANK, a graph neural network based null distribution inference model for F ST outlier detection

Detecting genomic regions under selection is essential for understanding how populations adapt to different environments, yet it remains challenging due to the confounding effects of demographic history and linkage disequilibrium (LD). Fixation index (F ST ) is a widely used statistic to identify genomic regions under adaptation. However, identifying genes under selection by defining F ST outliers often remains challenging, owing to confounding effects of underlying demographic history. Traditional methods assume independence among loci and rely on simple demographic models, while newer models perform much better but are computationally expensive and not easily scalable. Here, we present pyFLANK, an open-source and automated Python implementation which detects F ST outliers using a null distribution inferred from quasi-independent loci. Our tool integrates three approaches to identify loci obeying a null distribution: graph neural network (GNN) inference, linkage disequilibrium (LD)-based inference, and user-defined input. Because pyFLANK uses GNN-based inference of quasi-independent loci, it yields a more accurate null model with less need for user parameter input. In simulation experiments, pyFLANK achieved lower false positive rates than current methods while maintaining comparable detection power, indicating that its refined null model better distinguishes true adaptive loci from background variation. The GNN-based model, in particular, detected additional loci associated with phenotypic variance that were not identified by existing methods. Assessments of simulation and real data from different species demonstrate that pyFLANK achieves lower false positive rates compared with other commonly used F ST outlier detectors, while maintaining comparable detection power and excellent computational performance, providing a robust and user-friendly tool for identifying loci under divergent selection. It extends existing F ST outlier frameworks by incorporating explicit LD-aware strategies for null model calibration. The method is intended as a practical and scalable complement to existing genome scan approaches.

FST↗

Robust Statistical Approach for Determination of Graphite Nitridation Using Bayesian Model Comparison

A better estimation of surface reaction efficiency of semiconductor-grade graphite with atomic nitrogen, as well as the calibration error are calculated using Bayesian updating based on experimental data. Compared with a conventional deterministic model, the stochastic model approach is a powerful tool in the sense that the model is capable of taking into account underlying error correlations among the data quantities. In this paper, we investigate four different stochastic models (called “stochastic system model classes” herein) corresponding to different descriptions of modeling and measurement error structures, given one deterministic physical model. These stochastic system model classes differ in the covariance matrix structure that is used in the uncertainty model to represent uncertainties associated with the physical model and experimental measurements. For each model class, Bayesian inference is used to estimate the posterior probabilities of the physical model parameters as well as of the stochastic model parameters. Model comparison and selection are then applied based on two measures including Bayesian evidence and Bayesian information criterion, as well as the deviance information criterion. Both measures suggest the stochastic model class, which considers that a correlation between errors in two data quantities among different data points is the most plausible. With the stochastic model class, the range of uncertainty in surface reaction efficiency is estimated to be about two orders of magnitude at [Formula: see text].

Engineering↗

AlphaBuilding - Synthetic Buildings Operation Dataset

This is a synthetic building operation dataset which includes HVAC, lighting, miscellaneous electric loads (MELs) system operating conditions, occupant counts, environmental parameters, end-use and whole-building energy consumptions at 10-minute intervals. The data is created with 1395 annual simulations using the U.S. DOE detailed medium-sized reference office building, and 30 years' historical weather data in three typical climates including Miami, San Francisco, and Chicago. Three energy efficiency levels of the building and systems are considered. Assumptions regarding occupant movements, occupants' diverse temperature preferences, lighting, and MELs are adopted to reflect realistic building operations. A semantic building metadata schema - BRICK, is used to store the building metadata. The dataset is saved in a 1.2 TB of compressed HDF5 file. This dataset can be used in various applications, including building energy and load shape benchmarking, energy model calibration, evaluation of occupant and weather variability and their influences on building performance, algorithm development and testing for thermal and energy load prediction, model predictive control, policy development for reinforcement learning based building controls.

AlphaBuilding↗

Comparing and contrasting In-Vial and full-scale systems for sparging volatile analytes

Here, in-vial sparging was demonstrated as an effective, practical alternative to a full-scale sparging system for supporting the analysis of volatile constituents. Using elemental mercury (Hg 0 ) and toluene as representative purgeable analytes, the mass removal for various sparge configurations was measured and a reduced order model was developed and validated. In the primary experiments, Hg 0 in the sparge gas was trapped on activated carbon or gold, thermally desorbed, and quantified using atomic absorption or atomic fluorescence spectroscopy. Toluene experiments using the same in-vial sparge apparatus and sparge parameters were performed to demonstrate the applicability of the reduced order model to a broad range of compounds. Toluene removal was tracked by measuring the remaining toluene in sparged aliquots using Ultraviolet-visible (UV–Vis) spectroscopy. For the sparging, flow rates varied from 25 to 75 mL/min for periods from 0 to 30 min. Sparge performance, mass removal as a function of time, and sparge gas volume were measured for both in-vial and full-scale systems. A model based on dimensionless Henry's Law coefficient, normalized sparge gas volume, and fractional extent of equilibrium matched the experimental data for both compounds and provides a practical tool for future applications. For the conditions tested in this study, the calibrated model indicated that the sparge gas in the in-vial system reached approximately 33% of its equilibrium value before exiting the water surface, while a full-scale system reached approximately 100%. The tests validated the quality, reproducibility, and predictability of sparging performance for both full scale and in-vial sparge systems. Related factors such as waste generation, worker risk, and labor were also assessed. Full scale sparge systems provide the advantage of lower detection levels due to larger sample volume, while the in-vial sparge systems provide advantages for most other factors; including automatability, reducing secondary wastes, lessening the need to clean and check the sparge apparatus, and lowering labor and costs. The data and associated reduced order model support continued development and deployment of in-vial sparge platforms as a practical option for analysis of purgeable analytes such as volatile organic compounds and volatile metals/organometallics.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Diffraction properties of cylindrically bent KAP crystals in energy range of 2.3–7.5 keV using synchrotron radiation

Verification of physics models and computer simulations are heavily reliant upon the accuracy of experimental measurements. Calibration of instrument responses becomes an important step to achieve this goal. This paper presents systematic studies of bent potassium acid phthalate (KAP) crystals using Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratories, Advanced Light Source, beamline 9.3.1 in the energy range of 2.3 to 7.5 keV. A set of KAP crystals, gradually bent from flat up to a 50.8 mm cylindrical curvature. The measured integrated reflectivity for this set of KAP crystals shows good agreement with the X-ray Oriented Program (XOP) calculations when adjusting the Debye–Waller temperature factor and using the multilamellar model in the calculations. Significant differences in rocking curve profiles were observed between experimental measurements and theory. A forward convolution model and software code were developed to include experimental parameters, allowing the investigation of the difference between measurements and calculations. After considering the experimental parameters, good agreements were obtained for the rocking curve profiles for all bending radii with a unique set of parameters. Our results show that XOP can be a useful and reliable tool to predict performance of cylindrically bent KAP crystals in this energy range.

Wu, Ming↗

Searching for Spectroscopic Signatures of Ongoing Quenching in SDSS Galaxies

In this paper, we estimate the “star formation change parameter,” SFR 79 , which characterizes the current SFR relative to the average during the last 800 Myr, for ~300,000 galaxies selected from the Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS). The goals are to examine, in a much larger and independent sample, the trends previously reported in a sample of star-forming (SF) MaNGA galaxies and also to search for spectroscopic signatures of ongoing quenching in the so-called “Green Valley,” which is generally believed to contain galaxies that are migrating from the SF population to the quenched population of galaxies. Measuring SFR 79 for our large sample of SDSS galaxies, we first confirm the basic results of SF galaxies published by Wang & Lilly. We then discuss in detail the calibration and meaning of SFR 79 for galaxies that are well below the SFMS and establish the expected statistical signature of systematic ongoing quenching from modeling the z ~ 0 quenching rate of the SF population. We conclude that it is not possible at present to establish unambiguous observational evidence for systematic ongoing quenching processes, due to limitations both in the noise of the observational data, in particular in the measurements of H δ absorption, and in the calibration of SFR 79 , as well as biases introduced by the necessity of selecting objects with significant H α emission. We do however see plausible indications of ongoing quenching, which are quantitatively consistent with expectations from “growth+quenching” models of galaxy evolution and a typical e-folding timescale for quenching of ~500 Myr.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Calibrating the BHB star distance scale and the halo kinematic distance to the Galactic Centre

ABSTRACT We report the first determination of the distance to the Galactic Centre based on the kinematics of halo objects. We apply the statistical-parallax technique to the sample of ∼2500 blue horizontal branch (BHB) stars compiled by Xue et al. to simultaneously constrain the correction factor to the photometric distances of BHB stars as reported by those authors and the distance to the Galactic Centre to find R = 8.2 ± 0.6 kpc. We also find that the average velocity of our BHB star sample in the direction of Galactic rotation, V0 = −240 ± 4 km s−1, is greater by about 20 km s−1 in absolute value than the corresponding velocity for halo RR Lyrae type stars (V0 = −222 ± 4 km s−1) in the Galactocentric distance interval from 6 to 18 kpc, whereas the total (σV) and radial (σr) velocity dispersion of the BHB sample are smaller by about 40–45 km s−1 than the corresponding parameters of the velocity dispersion ellipsoid of halo RR Lyrae type variables. The velocity dispersion tensor of halo BHB stars proved to be markedly less anisotropic than the corresponding tensor for RR Lyrae type variables: the corresponding anisotropy parameter values are equal to βBHB = 0.51 ± 0.02 and βRR = 0.71 ± 0.03, respectively.

Utkin, Nikita D.↗

Stereo Cameras for Clouds (STEREOCAM) Instrument Handbook

The three pairs of stereo camera setups aim to provide synchronized and stereo calibrated time series of images that can be used for 3D cloud mask reconstruction. Each camera pair is positioned at approximately 120 degrees from the other pair, with a 17o-19o pitch angle from the ground, and at 5-6 km distance from the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Central Facility at the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Climate Research Facility Southern Great Plains (SGP) observatory to cover the region from northeast, northwest, and southern views. Images from both cameras of the same stereo setup can be paired together to obtain 3D reconstruction by triangulation. 3D reconstructions from the ring of three stereo pairs can be combined together to generate a 3D mask from surrounding views. This handbook delivers all stereo reconstruction parameters of the cameras necessary to make 3D reconstructions from the stereo camera images.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

Characterization of Partially Observed Epidemics - Application to COVID-19

This report documents a statistical method for the "real-time" characterization of partially observed epidemics. Observations consist of daily counts of symptomatic patients, diagnosed with the disease. Characterization, in this context, refers to estimation of epidemiological parameters that can be used to provide short-term forecasts of the ongoing epidemic, as well as to provide gross information for the time-dependent infection rate. The characterization problem is formulated as a Bayesian inverse problem, and is predicated on a model for the distribution of the incubation period. The model parameters are estimated as distributions using a Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method, thus quantifying the uncertainty in the estimates. The method is applied to the COVID-19 pandemic of 2020, using data at the country, provincial (e.g., states) and regional (e.g. county) levels. The epidemiological model includes a stochastic component due to uncertainties in the incubation period. This model-form uncertainty is accommodated by a pseudo-marginal Metropolis-Hastings MCMC sampler, which produces posterior distributions that reflect this uncertainty. We approximate the discrepancy between the data and the epidemiological model using Gaussian and negative binomial error models; the latter was motivated by the over-dispersed count data. For small daily counts we find the performance of the calibrated models to be similar for the two error models. For large daily counts the negative-binomial approximation is numerically unstable unlike the Gaussian error model. Application of the model at the country level (for the United States, Germany, Italy, etc.) generally provided accurate forecasts, as the data consisted of large counts which suppressed the day-to-day variations in the observations. Further, the bulk of the data is sourced over the duration before the relaxation of the curbs on population mixing, and is not confounded by any discernible country-wide second wave of infections. At the state-level, where reporting was poor or which evinced few infections (e.g., New Mexico), the variance in the data posed some, though not insurmountable, difficulties, and forecasts were able to capture the data with large uncertainty bounds. The method was found to be sufficiently sensitive to discern the flattening of the infection and epidemic curve due to shelter-in-place orders after around 90% quantile for the incubation distribution (about 10 days for COVID-19). The proposed model was also used at a regional level to compare the forecasts for the central and north-west regions of New Mexico. Modeling the data for these regions illustrated different disease spread dynamics captured by the model. While in the central region the daily counts peaked in the late April, in the north-west region the ramp-up continued for approximately three more weeks.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Measuring the thermal conductivity of hydrogels with a bidirectional 3w method

Hydrogels are soft, water-absorbing polymer materials with diverse applications in biomedicine and agriculture. Recently, hydrogels have been proposed to encapsulate water-soluble phase change materials which store energy in their latent heat of solidification. In these applications, the thermal conductivity of these materials affects their performance. Few methods exist for measuring the thermal conductivity of small quantities of hydrogels. Here, we describe an implementation of the bidirectional 3w technique to measure the thermal conductivity of hydrogels with particular attention to their moisture content. Our implementation of the technique can probe sample volumes as little as ~20 mL and yields the thermal conductivity without requiring fitting of additional thermal parameters. We numerically simulate 3w sensor designs with frequency-domain 3-D models to quantify and reduce errors introduced by the choice of substrate and insulation layer thickness. Frequencies in the ~1−20 Hz range yield less error for the materials considered here. We verify our setup with measurements on water and report values for polyacrylamide and poly(2-acrylamido-2-methylpropane sulfonic acid) (PAMPS) hydrogels. Our swollen hydrogels exhibited thermal conductivities nearly equivalent to water, 0.6 W m-1 K-1, and we estimate thermal conductivities of 0.43 and 0.42 W m-1 K-1 for neat polyacrylamide and PAMPS, respectively. Finally, we estimate an error of ±7%, consistent with other 3ω methods, with the largest error coming from the sensor calibration. We find our implementation of the bidirectional 3w method gives reasonable results and can be employed for prototyping soft materials relevant for thermal storage.

3-omega, thermal conductivity, hydrogel, moisture ↗