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Project No. 5: Evaluating Dredged Materials for Energy Storage Applications with Economic and Carbon Benefits (CRADA Final Report)

The New York Power Authority (NYPA) is committed to supporting the Climate Leadership and Community Protection Act (CLCPA) through its VISION2030 strategic plan. As a clean energy provider, NYPA is seeking to demonstrate leadership in every aspect of its business by taking a comprehensive approach to sustainability management and integrating sustainability principles into day-to-day decision-making. This effort includes planning for climate resilience through projects that mitigate climate risk in our operations and prioritize climate opportunities in our investments. Canal Corporation, a subsidiary of NYPA, is charged with maintaining minimum water depths for navigation in the Cayuga-Seneca, Champlain, Erie and Oswego Canals. In order to do so, an average volume of 280,000 cubic yards of sediment is dredged annually and held in Upland Disposal Sites (UDS) permitted by the New York Department of Environmental Conservation (NYSDEC). The required on-land storage at UDSes are nearing capacity, and disposal opportunities are costly, both economically and environmentally. Novel energy storage technology developed by NREL provides an opportunity for meeting NYPA's need to find reuse options for dredged materials and commitment to providing clean reliable energy. This would also support NYPA's goal of developing 300 MW of utility scale storage and enabling 150 MW of distributed storage by 2030. NREL will consult NYPA on the environmental and economic impact of reusing dredged materials as useful commodities such as energy storage media, construction sand or industrial uses. Test and material characterization methods will be based on current NREL storage material characterization approaches. NREL worked with NYPA on sample preparation, material testing, test results analysis. Test and material characterization methods were based on current NREL storage material characterization approaches. The team analyzed the environmental and economic impact of reusing dredged materials as useful commodities such as energy storage media, construction sand or industrial uses. The test and analysis works have achieved the project goal in characterizing NYPA dredging materials and verifying their various uses including construction sand and thermal energy storage media. Uses of dredging materials as useful materials will bring economic and environmental benefits and avoid disposal costs.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Advancing a Framework to Enable Characterization and Evaluation of Data Streams Useful for Biosurveillance

In recent years, biosurveillance has become the buzzword under which a diverse set of ideas and activities regarding detecting and mitigating biological threats are incorporated depending on context and perspective. Increasingly, biosurveillance practice has become global and interdisciplinary, requiring information and resources across public health, One Health, and biothreat domains. Even within the scope of infectious disease surveillance, multiple systems, data sources, and tools are used with varying and often unknown effectiveness. Evaluating the impact and utility of state-of-the-art biosurveillance is, in part, confounded by the complexity of the systems and the information derived from them. We present a novel approach conceptualizing biosurveillance from the perspective of the fundamental data streams that have been or could be used for biosurveillance and to systematically structure a framework that can be universally applicable for use in evaluating and understanding a wide range of biosurveillance activities. Moreover, the Biosurveillance Data Stream Framework and associated definitions are proposed as a starting point to facilitate the development of a standardized lexicon for biosurveillance and characterization of currently used and newly emerging data streams. Criteria for building the data stream framework were developed from an examination of the literature, analysis of information on operational infectious disease biosurveillance systems, and consultation with experts in the area of biosurveillance. To demonstrate utility, the framework and definitions were used as the basis for a schema of a relational database for biosurveillance resources and in the development and use of a decision support tool for data stream evaluation.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

Development and Demonstration of a Security Core Component

In recent years, the convergence of a number of trends has resulted in Cyber Security becoming a much greater concern for electric utilities. A short list of these trends includes: · Industrial Control Systems (ICSs) have evolved from depending on proprietary hardware and operating software toward using standard off-the-shelf hardware and operating software. This has meant that these ICSs can no longer depend on “security through obscurity. · Similarly, these same systems have evolved toward using standard communications protocols, further reducing their ability to rely upon obscurity. · The rise of the Internet and the accompanying demand for more data about virtually everything has resulted in formerly isolated ICSs becoming at least partially accessible via Internet-connected networks. · “Cyber crime” has become commonplace, whether it be for industrial espionage, reconnaissance for a possible cyber attack, theft, or because some individual or group “has something to prove.” Electric utility system operators are experts at running the power grid. The reality is, especially at small and mid-sized utilities, these SCADA operators will by default be “on the front line” if and when a cyber attack occurs against their systems. These people are not computer software, networking, or cyber security experts, so they are ill-equipped to deal with a cyber security incident. Cyber Security Manager (CSM) was conceived, designed, and built so that it can be configured to know what a utility’s SCADA/EMS/DMS system looks like under normal conditions. To do this, CSM monitors log messages from any device that uses the syslog standard. It can also monitor a variety of statistics from the computers that make up the SCADA/EMS/DMS: outputs from host-based security tools, intrusion detection systems, SCADA alarms, and real-time SCADA values – even results from a SIEM (Security Information and Event Management) system. When the system deviates from “normal,” CSM can alert the operator in language that they understand that an incident may be occurring, provide actionable intelligence, and informing them what actions to take. These alarms may be viewed on CSM’s built-in user interface, sent to a SCADA alarm list, or communicated via email, phone, pager, or SMS message. In recognition of the fact that “real world” training for cyber security events is impractical, CSM has a built-in Operator Training Simulator capability. This can be used stand alone to create simulated event scenarios for training purposes. It may also be used in conjunction with the recipient’s SCADA/EMS/DMS Operator Training Simulator. In addition to providing cyber security situational awareness for electric utility operators, CSM also provides tools for analysts and support personnel; in fact, the majority of user interface displays are designed for use in analyzing current and past security events. CSM keeps security-related information in long-term storage, as well as writing any decisions it makes to a (syslog) log for use forensic or other post-event analysis.

Turke, Andy↗

CO 2 Transport Infrastructure Outlook in the United States

Carbon capture and storage (CCS) represents one of the most important methods to mitigate anthropogenic carbon emissions at a large scale, playing a key role in meeting climate change targets (Bui et al., 2018) and for net-zero CO 2 by 2050 scenarios in the United States (Browning et al., 2023). This technology involves capturing CO 2 emissions from industrial processes, transporting them via pipelines, trucks, rails, or ships, and ultimately storing them in underground geological sites, such as saline aquifers or depleted oil reservoirs. Thus, to encourage carbon reduction initiatives, the U.S. Congress enacted the Bipartisan Budget Act in 2018, reforming the 45Q tax credit to benefit operators storing CO 2 in geologic formations (Jones and Sherlock, 2021). Additionally, the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act further expanded these incentives, providing additional support for CCS initiatives (Hackett and Kuehn, 2023). Although numerous studies describe the importance of optimal CO 2 transportation to support the decision-making of CCS projects aligned with the objective of net-zero emissions by 2050 (Abramson and Christensen, 2021; Chen and Pawar, 2023; Greig and Pascale, 2021), further efforts are required to optimize the transport infrastructure for national-scale CCS deployment. Therefore, in this study, we examine three nationwide scenarios with the SimCCS 3.0 tool (Ma et al., 2022, 2023, 2024) along with a novel geospatial splitting approach developed by Velasco-Lozano et al. (Velasco- Lozano et al., 2024a, 2024b). We present optimized pipeline networks that meet the dynamic evolution of annual capture amounts, describing the required total pipeline lengths at each stage as a function of the pipeline diameters. Thus, the cases presented demonstrate the feasibility of CO 2 pipeline infrastructure for large-scale CCS projects.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Reactive control and reasoning assistance for scientific laboratory instruments

Scientific laboratory instruments that are involved in chemical or physical sample identification frequently require substantial human preparation, attention, and interactive control during their operation. Successful real-time analysis of incoming data that supports such interactive control requires: (1) a clear recognition of variance of the data from expected results; and (2) rapid diagnosis of possible alternative hypotheses which might explain the variance. Such analysis then aids in decisions about modifying the experiment protocol, as well as being a goal itself. This paper reports on a collaborative project at the NASA Ames Research Center between artificial intelligence researchers and planetary microbial ecologists. Our team is currently engaged in developing software that autonomously controls science laboratory instruments and that provides data analysis of the real-time data in support of dynamic refinement of the experiment control. the first two instruments to which this technology has been applied are a differential thermal analyzer (DTA) and a gas chromatograph (GC). coupled together, they form a new geochemicstry and microbial analysis tool that is capable of rapid identification of the organiz and mineralogical constituents in soils. The thermal decomposition of the minerals and organics, and the attendance release of evolved gases, provides data about the structural and molecular chemistry of the soil samples.

Thompson, David E.↗

Dissemination and Use of NPOESS Data in AWIPS II

Real-time satellite information provides one of many data sources used by NWS forecast offices to diagnose current weather conditions and to assist in short-term forecast preparation. While GOES satellite data provides relatively coarse spatial resolution coverage of the continental U.S. on a 10-15 minute repeat cycle, polar orbiting data has the potential to provide snapshots of weather conditions at high-resolution in many spectral channels. The multispectral polar orbiting satellite capabilities allow for the derivation of image and sounding products not available from geostationary orbit. The utility of these polar orbiting measurements to forecasters has been demonstrated with NASA EOS observations as part of the Short-term Prediction and Research Transition (SPORT) program at Marshall Space Flight Center. SPORT scientists have been providing real-time MODIS data to NWS forecasters on an experimental basis to address a variety of short-term weather forecasting problems since 2003. The launch of the NPOESS Preparatory Project (NPP) satellite in 2009 will extend the continuity of high-resolution data provided by the NASA EOS satellites into future operational weather systems. The NPP data will be available in a timeframe consistent with the early installation of the next generation Advanced Weather Information Processing System (AWIPS) under development by Raytheon for the NWS. The AWIPS II system will be a JAVA-based decision support system which preserves the functionality of the existing systems and offers unique development opportunities for new data sources and applications in the Service Orientated Architecture (SOA) environment. The poster will highlight some of the advanced observing and display- capabilities of these new systems such as plug-ins for NASA and NPP datasets, and the development of local applications which are not well handled in the current AWIPS (e.g., 3D displays of LMA data, generation and display of 3-channel color composites, etc.).

Jedlovec, Gary↗

Systems Engineering Management Plan NASA Traffic Aware Planner Integration Into P-180 Airborne Test-Bed

NASA's Traffic Aware Planner (TAP) is a cockpit decision support tool that provides aircrew with vertical and lateral flight-path optimizations with the intent of achieving significant fuel and time savings, while automatically avoiding traffic, weather, and restricted airspace conflicts. A key step towards the maturation and deployment of TAP concerned its operational evaluation in a representative flight environment. This Systems Engineering Management Plan (SEMP) addresses the test-vehicle design, systems integration, and flight-test planning for the first TAP operational flight evaluations, which were successfully completed in November 2013. The trial outcomes are documented in the Traffic Aware Planner (TAP) flight evaluation paper presented at the 14th AIAA Aviation Technology, Integration, and Operations Conference, Atlanta, GA. (AIAA-2014-2166, Maris, J. M., Haynes, M. A., Wing, D. J., Burke, K. A., Henderson, J., & Woods, S. E., 2014).

Maris, John↗

Imagery Integration Team

The Human Exploration Science Office (KX) provides leadership for NASA's Imagery Integration (Integration 2) Team, an affiliation of experts in the use of engineering-class imagery intended to monitor the performance of launch vehicles and crewed spacecraft in flight. Typical engineering imagery assessments include studying and characterizing the liftoff and ascent debris environments; launch vehicle and propulsion element performance; in-flight activities; and entry, landing, and recovery operations. Integration 2 support has been provided not only for U.S. Government spaceflight (e.g., Space Shuttle, Ares I-X) but also for commercial launch providers, such as Space Exploration Technologies Corporation (SpaceX) and Orbital Sciences Corporation, servicing the International Space Station. The NASA Integration 2 Team is composed of imagery integration specialists from JSC, the Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC), and the Kennedy Space Center (KSC), who have access to a vast pool of experience and capabilities related to program integration, deployment and management of imagery assets, imagery data management, and photogrammetric analysis. The Integration 2 team is currently providing integration services to commercial demonstration flights, Exploration Flight Test-1 (EFT-1), and the Space Launch System (SLS)-based Exploration Missions (EM)-1 and EM-2. EM-2 will be the first attempt to fly a piloted mission with the Orion spacecraft. The Integration 2 Team provides the customer (both commercial and Government) with access to a wide array of imagery options - ground-based, airborne, seaborne, or vehicle-based - that are available through the Government and commercial vendors. The team guides the customer in assembling the appropriate complement of imagery acquisition assets at the customer's facilities, minimizing costs associated with market research and the risk of purchasing inadequate assets. The NASA Integration 2 capability simplifies the process of securing one-of-a-kind imagery assets and skill sets, such as ground-based fixed and tracking cameras, crew-in the-loop imaging applications, and the integration of custom or commercial-off-the-shelf sensors onboard spacecraft. For spaceflight applications, the Integration 2 Team leverages modeling, analytical, and scientific resources along with decades of experience and lessons learned to assist the customer in optimizing engineering imagery acquisition and management schemes for any phase of flight - launch, ascent, on-orbit, descent, and landing. The Integration 2 Team guides the customer in using NASA's world-class imagery analysis teams, which specialize in overcoming inherent challenges associated with spaceflight imagery sets. Precision motion tracking, two-dimensional (2D) and three-dimensional (3D) photogrammetry, image stabilization, 3D modeling of imagery data, lighting assessment, and vehicle fiducial marking assessments are available. During a mission or test, the Integration 2 Team provides oversight of imagery operations to verify fulfillment of imagery requirements. The team oversees the collection, screening, and analysis of imagery to build a set of imagery findings. It integrates and corroborates the imagery findings with other mission data sets, generating executive summaries to support time-critical mission decisions.

Calhoun, Tracy↗

Identification and prioritization of high risk deteriorating support infrastructure - 15475

Identification and prioritization for the re-capitalization of deteriorating waste processing and storage support infrastructure and information technology (IT) is essential for a safe, cost effective, and sustainable waste management program. Funding restraints have limited programs to performing only maintenance on aging infrastructure support systems whose operational costs, technological obsolescence, and reliability risks continue to grow without a disciplined and balanced re-capitalization program. Savannah River Site (SRS) comprises both Department of Energy Environmental Management and NNSA missions, and includes a lab, Savannah River National Laboratory. SRS has developed a crosscutting identification and prioritization tool and process that provides integration of all Site mission support infrastructure re-capitalization requirements and prioritizes into a single database that can be readily accessed for infrastructure investment decisions. This database, referred to as the SRS Critical Integrated Infrastructure Priority List (CIIPL) captures risk data that includes impacts toward safety, regulatory compliance, mission, and cost for inclusion in its prioritization process. Further, the CIIPL provides a status of each entered project's readiness for execution that includes funding source, reliability of current cost estimate, and an out year budget profile. The SRS CIIPL, created in 2009, was initially comprised of re-capitalization projects for the Site's common infrastructure (i.e. shared roads and utilities) that supported all Site missions and activities. As mission program funding became constrained, the value for a Site wide integrated prioritization tool became more apparent and the CIIPL grew to include all Site mission and tenant activities which included safeguards and security requirements. The SRS CIIPL has become a highly effective tool for achieving senior management situational awareness of the Site's most pressing support infrastructure and IT needs. The mission programs have used the CIIPL to prioritize and fund high risk projects within their own program budgets. This past year, the CIIPL was used as a budgeting and decision making tool to allocate funding for two common infrastructures high risk projects for the FY16 Site budget submission and has received laudatory comments from DOE headquarters review teams. The SRS CIIPL and its process can be a benefit to other waste management organizations by demonstrating a proven approach toward the integration of support infrastructure and IT re-capitalization requirements across diverse mission and tenant boundaries. The SRS CIIPL can provide senior management with an objective decision making tool that delivers a balanced evaluation of project requirements in terms of multiple risk criteria; safety, regulatory, mission, and cost impacts. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Severe Weather Tool using 1500 UTC Cape Canaveral Air Force Station Soundings

People and property at Kennedy Space Center (KSC) and Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS) are at risk when severe weather occurs. Strong winds, hail and tornadoes can injure individuals and cause costly damage to structures if not properly protected. NASA's Launch Services Program and Ground Systems Development and Operations Program and other KSC programs use the daily and weekly severe weather forecasts issued by the 45th Weather Squadron (45 WS) to determine if they need to limit an activity such as working on gantries, or protect property such as a vehicle on a pad. The 45 WS requested the Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) develop a warm season (May-September) severe weather tool for use in the Meteorological Interactive Data Display System (MIDDS) based on the late morning, 1500 UTC (1100 local time), CCAFS (XMR) sounding. The 45 WS frequently makes decisions to issue a severe weather watch and other severe weather warning support products to NASA and the 45th Space Wing in the late morning, after the 1500 UTC sounding. The results of this work indicate that certain stability indices based on the late morning XMR soundings can depict differences between days with reported severe weather and days with no reported severe weather. The AMU determined a frequency of reported severe weather for the stability indices and implemented an operational tool in MIDDS.

Bauman, William H., III↗

Proposed Risk-Informed Regulatory Framework for Approval of Microreactor Transportation Packages

Microreactors are very small nuclear reactors with a power output of about 20 megawatts electric or less that are designed to be factory-built, modular in nature, and highly portable. These compact reactors will be small enough to be transported by truck or even air and could help solve energy challenges in a number of areas, ranging from remote commercial or residential locations to military bases. Pacific Northwest National Laboratory is tasked to develop and evaluate transportation licensing options for microreactors. The work is funded by the National Reactor Innovation Center a National Department of Energy program led by Idaho National Laboratory for the Office of Nuclear Energy Research and Development which support demonstration of microreactor technology. Key transportation steps include the (1) initial movement of high-assay low enriched uranium fresh fuel, (2) transportation of an intact, but never-operated microreactor, and (3) transportation of an intact, previously-operated microreactor. The deliverables on the project consists of a documentation of applicable regulations and regulatory authority for transportation. The objective of this report is to propose a risk-informed regulatory framework for the licensing of the transportation of microreactors, including the transportation of irradiated nuclear fuel that is assumed to be an integral component of the microreactor transportation package. The framework lays out a viable regulatory pathway, including decision points for regulatory options and the supporting technical evaluations for those options in phases from near to long term. This report includes discussion of the (1) general microreactor design concepts including representative microreactor source terms, (2) options for regulatory approval of microreactor transportation based on current regulation and historical precedence, (3) regulatory basis for including risk information in microreactor transportation licensing activities, and (4) description of a risk-informed regulatory framework.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

Proposed Risk-Informed Regulatory Framework for Approval of Microreactor Transportation Packages

Microreactors are very small nuclear reactors with a power output of about 20 megawatts electric or less that are designed to be factory-built, modular in nature, and highly portable. These compact reactors will be small enough to be transported by truck or even air and could help solve energy challenges in a number of areas, ranging from remote commercial or residential locations to military bases. Pacific Northwest National Laboratory is tasked to develop and evaluate transportation licensing options for microreactors. The work is funded by the National Reactor Innovation Center a National Department of Energy program led by Idaho National Laboratory for the Office of Nuclear Energy Research and Development which support demonstration of microreactor technology. Key transportation steps include the (1) initial movement of high-assay low enriched uranium fresh fuel, (2) transportation of an intact, but never-operated microreactor, and (3) transportation of an intact, previously-operated microreactor. The deliverables on the project consists of a documentation of applicable regulations and regulatory authority for transportation. The objective of this report is to propose a risk-informed regulatory framework for the licensing of the transportation of microreactors, including the transportation of irradiated nuclear fuel that is assumed to be an integral component of the microreactor transportation package. The framework lays out a viable regulatory pathway, including decision points for regulatory options and the supporting technical evaluations for those options in phases from near to long term. This report includes discussion of the (1) general microreactor design concepts including representative microreactor source terms, (2) options for regulatory approval of microreactor transportation based on current regulation and historical precedence, (3) regulatory basis for including risk information in microreactor transportation licensing activities, and (4) description of a risk-informed regulatory framework.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

Content and Representation of Information Needed to Support Time-Constrained Problem Solving

NASA’s current mission-operations paradigm originated with Project Mercury and endured with minimum evolution through the Apollo Program, Space Shuttle Program, and ISS missions. At its foundation is a near-complete real-time dependence on a ground team to manage the combined state of the mission, vehicle, and crew. Utilizing many engineers and operators with broad and deep expertise; large, distributed datasets including extensive telemetry; and expansive analytical and computing power, this ground team has served as the safety net for crewed spaceflight missions over the past 60 years. This approach must change to address challenges associated with missions beyond low Earth orbit (BLEO), including infrequent resupply, reduced ability to evacuate, and delayed communications that prohibit real-time operational support. We anticipate that a necessary part of this change will be increased independence for the crew, as roles and responsibilities traditionally performed by ground teams move on board the vehicle. While many risks are associated with Earth-independent operations, one particular concern is ensuring that the crew will have adequate onboard support to perform urgent problem solving when communication with the ground is delayed or intermittent. A key resource that enables the ground team to respond to anomalies quickly and effectively is the extraordinary expertise and experience it possesses. It is comprised of 80+ experts on at any given time, with a combined 600+ years of system-specific experience across 22 unique console disciplines. A small crew will face the unprecedented challenge of independently responding to anomalies that have historically been handled by a team 20 times their size. Another important resource upon which the ground heavily relies to support procedure execution and anomaly response is data. The amount of telemetry data that each flight controller monitors is extensive. In addition, as the ground team works to further assess impacts, trouble shoot, identify workarounds, and oversee procedure execution, it accesses and synthesizes engineering and procedure information, as well as system build, test, and configuration documentation. It is not feasible nor useful to put all these data onboard as crews become more Earth independent. Each member of a small Mars mission small crew will have multiple roles beyond monitoring telemetry and data gathering, and multiple roles within anomaly resolution processes, thereby limiting their capacity for copious amounts of information. Moreover, while access is necessary, it alone is insufficient. Information will need to be compiled, refined, and represented appropriately to support the crew’s reduced attention and expertise. This work seeks to understand the content and representation of information needed to support time-constrained problem solving and decision making by the crew without real-time ground support. To build this understanding, we first surveyed the literature, focusing on how expert problem solvers construct and manipulate their mental models. Next, we interviewed expert problem solvers in spaceflight and analogous domains and surveyed industry solutions for data presentation. Finally, we analyzed current spaceflight operations by investigating flight controller anomaly resolution processes during ISS training simulations and real operational events. These methods led to creating a problem-solving framework that details common themes and features of attending to, assessing, analyzing, and acting on problems in complex, time-constrained domains. Using this framework and the results of our analysis, we identified conceptual data representations needed for crew-led problem-solving. Preliminary onboard user interface concepts to meet identified needs will be presented.

anomaly response↗

Light Water Reactor Sustainability Program: Risk Informed Safety Margin Characterization (RISMC) Advanced Test Reactor Demonstration Case Study

Safety is central to the design, licensing, operation, and economics of Nuclear Power Plants (NPPs). Consequently, the ability to better characterize and quantify safety margin holds the key to improved decision making about LWR design, operation, and plant life extension. A systematic approach to characterization of safety margins and the subsequent margins management options represents a vital input to the licensee and regulatory analysis and decision making that will be involved. The purpose of the RISMC Pathway R&D is to support plant decisions for risk-informed margins management with the aim to improve economics, reliability, and sustain safety of current NPPs. Goals of the RISMC Pathway are twofold: (1) Develop and demonstrate a risk-assessment method coupled to safety margin quantification that can be used by NPP decision makers as part of their margin recovery strategies. (2) Create an advanced “RISMC toolkit” that enables more accurate representation of NPP safety margin. This report describes the RISMC methodology demonstration where the Advanced Test Reactor (ATR) was used as a test-bed for purposes of determining safety margins. As part of the demonstration, we describe how both the thermal-hydraulics and probabilistic safety calculations are integrated and used to quantify margin management strategies.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Conventional Generation Asset Management with Renewable Portfolio Standards Using Real Options

The transition to a more renewable generation mix under a competitive electricity market will require individual power producers to use sophisticated tools to value conventional generators. Owners will need to understand what market prices signal new investments, temporarily suspending operation, reactivating mothballed generators or permanently abandoning a plant. Net present valuation from a traditional discounted cash flow analysis is limited in capturing the value of generation technologies, and it does not provide an optimal investment criterion. We present and evaluate a closed-form decision support framework using a Spark Spread Real Options approach to value generation assets and to capture optimal market price signals that minimizes financial risks of individual power producers under a transition towards a more renewable energy fleet. We evaluate the Spark Spread options valuation for capital budgeting without capacity payments. As an example, for a fixed heat rate of 10,000 Btu/kWh and a combined electricity and fuel price annual volatility1 of 58%, the Spark Spread option valuation gives a positive value for a unit of installed generating capacity at electricity prices below $\$$40/MWh. Given the same conditions, a traditional net present value (NPV) cash flow has no value for a unit of installed capacity for electricity prices below $\$$40/MWh. Accounting for the inevitable volatility in electricity and fuel prices can allow firms to see more value in fossil plants than does the traditional approach.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

An Advanced Framework for Improving Situational Awareness in Electric Power Grid Operation

With the deployment of new smart grid technologies and the penetration of renewable energy in power systems, significant uncertainty and variability is being introduced into power grid operation. Traditionally, the Energy Management System (EMS) operates the power grid in a deterministic mode, and thus will not be sufficient for the future control center in a stochastic environment with faster dynamics. One of the main challenges is to improve situational awareness. This paper reviews the current status of power grid operation and presents a vision of improving wide-area situational awareness for a future control center. An advanced framework, consisting of parallel state estimation, state prediction, parallel contingency selection, parallel contingency analysis, and advanced visual analytics, is proposed to provide capabilities needed for better decision support by utilizing high performance computing (HPC) techniques and advanced visual analytic techniques. Research results are presented to support the proposed vision and framework.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Environmental Control and Life Support (ECLS) Capability Roadmap Development for Exploration

NASA is considering a number of future human space exploration mission concepts. Although detailed requirements and vehicle architectures remain mostly undefined, near-term technology investment decisions need to be guided by the anticipated capabilities needed to enable or enhance the mission concepts. This paper describes a roadmap that NASA has formulated to guide the development of Environmental Control and Life Support Systems (ECLSS) capabilities required to enhance the long-term operation of the International Space Station (ISS) and enable beyond-Low Earth Orbit (LEO) human exploration missions. Three generic mission types were defined to serve as a basis for developing a prioritized list of needed capabilities and technologies. Those are 1) a short duration micro gravity mission; 2) a long duration transit microgravity mission; and 3) a long duration surface exploration mission. To organize the effort, ECLSS was categorized into three major functional groups (atmosphere, water, and solid waste management) with each broken down into sub-functions. The ability of existing, flight-proven state-of-the-art (SOA) technologies to meet the functional needs of each of the three mission types was then assessed. When SOA capabilities fell short of meeting the needs, those "gaps" were prioritized in terms of whether or not the corresponding capabilities enable or enhance each of the mission types. The resulting list of enabling and enhancing capability gaps can be used to guide future ECLSS development. A strategy to fulfill those needs over time was then developed in the form of a roadmap. Through execution of this roadmap, the hardware and technologies needed to enable and enhance exploration may be developed in a manner that synergistically benefits the ISS operational capability, supports Multi-Purpose Crew Vehicle (MPCV) development, and sustains long-term technology investments for longer duration missions. This paper summarizes NASA s ECLSS capability roadmap development process, findings, and recommendation

Bagdigian, Robert M.↗

Data Applicability of Heritage and New Hardware for Launch Vehicle System Reliability Models

Many launch vehicle systems are designed and developed using heritage and new hardware. In most cases, the heritage hardware undergoes modifications to fit new functional system requirements, impacting the failure rates and, ultimately, the reliability data. New hardware, which lacks historical data, is often compared to like systems when estimating failure rates. Some qualification of applicability for the data source to the current system should be made. Accurately characterizing the reliability data applicability and quality under these circumstances is crucial to developing model estimations that support confident decisions on design changes and trade studies. This presentation will demonstrate a data-source classification method that ranks reliability data according to applicability and quality criteria to a new launch vehicle. This method accounts for similarities/dissimilarities in source and applicability, as well as operating environments like vibrations, acoustic regime, and shock. This classification approach will be followed by uncertainty-importance routines to assess the need for additional data to reduce uncertainty.

Al Hassan Mohammad↗