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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS1971

Tests and comparisons of gravity models.

Optical observations of the GEOS satellites were used to obtain orbital solutions with different sets of geopotential coefficients. The solutions were compared before and after modification to high order terms (necessary because of resonance) and were then analyzed by comparing subsequent observations with predicted trajectories. The most important source of error in orbit determination and prediction for the GEOS satellites is the effect of resonance found in most published sets of geopotential coefficients. Modifications to the sets yield greatly improved orbits in most cases. The results of these comparisons suggest that with the best optical tracking systems and gravity models, satellite position error due to gravity model uncertainty can reach 50-100 m during a heavily observed 5-6 day orbital arc. If resonant coefficients are estimated, the uncertainty is reduced considerably.

Marsh, J. G.↗
NASA NTRS2013

Spatial Statistical Data Fusion (SSDF)

As remote sensing for scientific purposes has transitioned from an experimental technology to an operational one, the selection of instruments has become more coordinated, so that the scientific community can exploit complementary measurements. However, tech nological and scientific heterogeneity across devices means that the statistical characteristics of the data they collect are different. The challenge addressed here is how to combine heterogeneous remote sensing data sets in a way that yields optimal statistical estimates of the underlying geophysical field, and provides rigorous uncertainty measures for those estimates. Different remote sensing data sets may have different spatial resolutions, different measurement error biases and variances, and other disparate characteristics. A state-of-the-art spatial statistical model was used to relate the true, but not directly observed, geophysical field to noisy, spatial aggregates observed by remote sensing instruments. The spatial covariances of the true field and the covariances of the true field with the observations were modeled. The observations are spatial averages of the true field values, over pixels, with different measurement noise superimposed. A kriging framework is used to infer optimal (minimum mean squared error and unbiased) estimates of the true field at point locations from pixel-level, noisy observations. A key feature of the spatial statistical model is the spatial mixed effects model that underlies it. The approach models the spatial covariance function of the underlying field using linear combinations of basis functions of fixed size. Approaches based on kriging require the inversion of very large spatial covariance matrices, and this is usually done by making simplifying assumptions about spatial covariance structure that simply do not hold for geophysical variables. In contrast, this method does not require these assumptions, and is also computationally much faster. This method is fundamentally different than other approaches to data fusion for remote sensing data because it is inferential rather than merely descriptive. All approaches combine data in a way that minimizes some specified loss function. Most of these are more or less ad hoc criteria based on what looks good to the eye, or some criteria that relate only to the data at hand.

Braverman, Amy J.↗
NASA NTRS2019

Assimilating microwave cloudy observations into NASA GEOS model using a novel Bayesian Monte Carlo technique

Despite the importance of clouds and their influence on atmospheric water and energy balance, Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) centers systematically exclude cloud information from the assimilation process and only assimilate clear-sky radiances (Janiskov´a et al. 2012). In order to ensure that only clear sky radiances are assimilated, strict cloud detection thresholds are applied before radiances are fed into data assimilation (DA) systems. This process not only excludes a large portion of satellite radiances, but causes loss of information in the regions that are of high interest to meteorologists and are most challenging for weather forecasts (Errico et al. 2007; Haddad et al. 2015). Although, in recent years there has been great advances in the operational weather forecasting, the prediction of tropical cyclones (TC), especially the intensity of TCs, remains challenging. According to Aksoy et al. (2013), in addition to the model deficiencies, another important factor that contributes to this challenge includes lack of observations in the peripheral environment (rain- bands) of TCs mainly because of the selective assimilation of existing observations. Satellite observations provide more than 90 % of the input data for the initialization of NWP models but more than 75 % of satellite observations are discarded due to the cloud contamination as well as land, snow, and ice emissivity issues (Bauer et al. 2010).

Rainband↗
NASA NTRS2014

Evaluation of the Surface Representation of the Greenland Ice Sheet in a General Circulation Model

Simulated surface conditions of the Goddard Earth Observing System model, version 5 (GEOS 5) atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) are examined for the contemporary Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS). A surface parameterization that explicitly models surface processes including snow compaction, meltwater percolation and refreezing, and surface albedo is found to remedy an erroneous deficit in the annual net surface energy flux and provide an adequate representation of surface mass balance (SMB) in an evaluation using simulations at two spatial resolutions. The simulated 1980-2008 GrIS SMB average is 24.7+/-4.5 cm yr(- 1) water-equivalent (w.e.) at.5 degree model grid spacing, and 18.2+/-3.3 cm yr(- 1) w.e. for 2 degree grid spacing. The spatial variability and seasonal cycle of the simulation compare favorably to recent studies using regional climate models, while results from 2 degree integrations reproduce the primary features of the SMB field. In comparison to historical glaciological observations, the coarser resolution model overestimates accumulation in the southern areas of the GrIS, while the overall SMB is underestimated. These changes relate to the sensitivity of accumulation and melt to the resolution of topography. The GEOS-5 SMB fields contrast with available corresponding atmospheric models simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). It is found that only a few of the CMIP5 AGCMs examined provide significant summertime runoff, a dominant feature of the GrIS seasonal cycle. This is a condition that will need to be remedied if potential contributions to future eustatic change from polar ice sheets are to be examined with GCMs.

AGCM↗
NASA NTRS1982

A gunner model for an AAA tracking task with interrupted observations

The problem of modeling a trained human operator's tracking performance in an anti-aircraft system under various display blanking conditions is discussed. The input to the gunner is the observable tracking error subjected to repeated interruptions (blanking). A simple and effective gunner model was developed. The effect of blanking on the gunner's tracking performance is approached via modeling the observer and controller gains.

Yu, C. F.↗
NASA NTRS1977

Techniques of Global analysis applied to gravitation theories: A cosmological black hole?

An elementary model of freely falling observers and emitters within a black hole's radius is examined to determine the redshift spectrum reaching a typical observer. The model is independent of scale, the fundamental unit being the radius (mass) of the black hole. The observers/emitters all follow the same kinds of trajectories: radially inward and starting from rest at spatial infinity. The test-particle role is assumed throughout; i.e., the observers/emitters do not themselves contribute to the gravitational field of the system. By means of redshift formulas and luminosity distance to the emitters, a picture of actual redshifts and blueshifts, with their intensities, emerges for an observer within the black hole's radius. No luminosity distances greater than approximately one-half the radius are considered in this particular study; nevertheless, redshifts and blueshifts up to approximately 0.6 are seen in portions of the observer's celestial sphere. An exotic application can be made, as a curiosity, to a black hole the size of the universe, resulting in a particular anisotropic "cosmology."

Debney, G.↗
NASA NTRS1980

Saturn's rings - Particle composition and size distribution as constrained by observations at microwave wavelengths. II - Radio interferometric observations

Theoretical models are presented of the brightness of Saturn's rings at microwave wavelengths (0.34-21.0 cm) including both intrinsic ring emission and diffuse scattering by the rings of the planetary emission. In addition, several previously existing sets of interferometric observations of the Saturn system at 0.83, 3.71, 6.0, 11.1, and 21.0 cm wavelengths are analyzed. A comparison of models and experimental data make it possible to establish improved constraints on the properties of the rings. In particular, it is found that (1) the maximum optical depths in the rings is 1.5 + or - 0.3 referred to visible wavelengths; (2) a significant decrease in ring optical depths from 3.7 to 21.0 cm makes it possible to rule out the possibility that more than 30% of the cross section of the rings is composed of particles larger than about a meter; and (3) the ring particles cannot be primarily of silicate composition (independently of particle size), and the particles cannot be primarily smaller than about 0.1 cm, independently of composition.

Cuzzi, J. N.↗
NASA NTRS2010

Combining Hydrological Modeling and Remote Sensing Observations to Enable Data-Driven Decision Making for Devils Lake Flood Mitigation in a Changing Climate

This slide presentation reviews work to combine the hydrological models and remote sensing observations to monitor Devils Lake in North Dakota, to assist in flood damage mitigation. This reports on the use of a distributed rainfall-runoff model, HEC-HMS, to simulate the hydro-dynamics of the lake watershed, and used NASA's remote sensing data, including the TRMM Multi-Satellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA) and AIRS surface air temperature, to drive the model.

Zhang, Xiaodong↗
DOE OSTI2022

The future of Earth system prediction: Advances in model-data fusion

Predictions of the Earth system, such as weather forecasts and climate projections, require models informed by observations at many levels. Some methods for integrating models and observations are very systematic and comprehensive (e.g., data assimilation), and some are single purpose and customized (e.g., for model validation). We review current methods and best practices for integrating models and observations. We highlight how future developments can enable advanced heterogeneous observation networks and models to improve predictions of the Earth system (including atmosphere, land surface, oceans, cryosphere, and chemistry) across scales from weather to climate. As the community pushes to develop the next generation of models and data systems, there is a need to take a more holistic, integrated, and coordinated approach to models, observations, and their uncertainties to maximize the benefit for Earth system prediction and impacts on society.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Clump survival and migration in VDI galaxies: an analytical model versus simulations and observations

ABSTRACT We address the nature of the giant clumps in high-z galaxies that undergo violent disc instability, distinguishing between long-lived and short-lived clumps. We study the evolution of long-lived clumps during migration through the disc via an analytical model tested by simulations and confront theory with CANDELS-HST observations. The clump ‘bathtub’ model, which considers gas and stellar gain and loss, involves four parameters: the accretion efficiency α, the star formation rate (SFR) efficiency ϵd, and the outflow mass-loading factors for gas and stars, η and ηs. The corresponding time-scales are comparable to the migration time, two-three orbital times. The accretion-rate dependence on clump mass, gas, and stars, allows an analytical solution involving exponential growing and decaying modes. For the fiducial parameter values there is a main evolution phase where the SFR and gas mass are constant and the stellar mass is rising linearly with time. This makes the inverse specific SFR an observable proxy for clump age. When η or ϵd are high, or α is low, the decaying mode induces a decline of SFR and gas mass till the migration ends. Later, the masses and SFR approach an hypothetical exponential growth with a constant specific SFR. The model matches simulations with different, moderate feedbacks, both in isolated and cosmological settings. The observed clumps agree with our predictions, indicating that the massive clumps are long-lived and migrating. A challenge is to model feedback that is non-disruptive in massive clumps but suppresses SFR to match the galactic stellar-to-halo mass ratio.

Dekel, Avishai↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Observations and 3D MHD Modeling of Small-scale Solar Prominence Oscillations

Small scaleoscillations were recently observed in prominences with high resolution Hinode/SOT and IRIS SJI in unprecedented detailand identified as fast magnetosonic waves. The high-resolution observations provide evidence of flows of cool material, fluid instabilities such as Kelvin-Helmholtz and Rayleigh-Taylor, and the spectroscopic information provides evidence of Doppler shifts, heating, and cooling of the prominence material. Recently nonlinear fast magnetosonic waves were observed withperiods in the range of 5–11 minutes and wavelengths in the plane of the sky (POS) of ~2000kmand flows, and the flows in narrow threads withPOS speed ∼16–46 km/s. Thenonlinear fast magnetosonic waves and flows were modeled using 2.5D MHD (Ofman & Kucera 2020). Here, we extend the studyof the nonlinear fast magnetosonic waves using more realistic 3D MHD model. The model includes the 3D structure of the density and the magnetic fieldas well as mode coupling anddemonstrate the propagating density compressions associated with the nonlinear fast magnetosonicwaves, as well as the guided modesin the pillar. The 3DMHD modelingimprove understanding ofthe POSeffects in limb prominence oscillations observations.The results of the modeling are useful for coronal seismology of the prominence structure.

Leon Ofman↗
DOE OSTI2023

The Intrinsic 150‐Day Periodicity of the Southern Hemisphere Extratropical Large‐Scale Atmospheric Circulation

Abstract The variability of the Southern Hemisphere (SH) extratropical large‐scale circulation is dominated by the Southern Annular Mode (SAM), whose timescale is extensively used as a key metric in evaluating state‐of‐the‐art climate models. Past observational and theoretical studies suggest that the SAM lacks any internally generated (intrinsic) periodicity. Here, we show, using observations and a climate model hierarchy, that the SAM has an intrinsic 150‐day periodicity. This periodicity is robustly detectable in the power spectra and principal oscillation patterns (aka dynamical mode decomposition) of the zonal‐mean circulation, and in hemispheric‐scale precipitation and ocean surface wind stress. The 150‐day period is consistent with the predictions of a new reduced‐order model for the SAM, which suggests that this periodicity is associated with a complex interaction of turbulent eddies and zonal wind anomalies, as the latter propagate from low to high latitudes. These findings present a rare example of periodic oscillations arising from the internal dynamics of the extratropical turbulent circulations. Based on these findings, we further propose a new metric for evaluating climate models, and show that some of the previously reported shortcomings and improvements in simulating SAM's variability connect to the models' ability in reproducing this periodicity. We argue that this periodicity should be considered in evaluating climate models and understanding the past, current, and projected Southern Hemisphere climate variability.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Standardized Data to Improve Understanding and Modeling of Soil Nitrogen at Continental Scale

Abstract Nitrogen (N) is a key limiting nutrient in terrestrial ecosystems, but there remain critical gaps in our ability to predict and model controls on soil N cycling. This may be in part due to lack of standardized sampling across broad spatial–temporal scales. Here, we introduce a continentally distributed, publicly available data set collected by the National Ecological Observatory Network (NEON) that can help fill these gaps. First, we detail the sampling design and methods used to collect and analyze soil inorganic N pool and net flux rate data from 47 terrestrial sites. We address methodological challenges in generating a standardized data set, even for a network using uniform protocols. Then, we evaluate sources of variation within the sampling design and compare measured net N mineralization to simulated fluxes from the Community Earth System Model 2 (CESM2). We observed wide spatiotemporal variation in inorganic N pool sizes and net transformation rates. Site explained the most variation in NEON’s stratified sampling design, followed by plots within sites. Organic horizons had larger pools and net N transformation rates than mineral horizons on a sample weight basis. The majority of sites showed some degree of seasonality in N dynamics, but overall these temporal patterns were not matched by CESM2, leading to poor correspondence between observed and modeled data. Looking forward, these data can reveal new insights into controls on soil N cycling, especially in the context of other environmental data sets provided by NEON, and should be leveraged to improve predictive modeling of the soil N cycle.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Access to stable, high pressure tokamak pedestals using local electron cyclotron current drive

Abstract Experiments on the DIII-D tokamak demonstrate that edge localized mode (ELM) stability can be manipulated using localized electron cyclotron current drive (ECCD) in conjunction with resonant magnetic perturbations (RMPs). The injection of counter-plasma-current edge ECCD reduces the RMP amplitude required to suppress ELMs and bifurcates the pedestal into a high-confinement regime with 7 kPA pedestal pressure. This is the first time such a high confinement regime has been accessed through the bifurcation from the ballooning stability branch predicted by existing models. These observations are consistent with modeled ECCD manipulation of magnetic islands induced by the RMPs.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2026

Search for Beyond the Standard Model physics with anomaly detection in multilepton final states in pp collisions at s=13TeV with the ATLAS detector

A model-agnostic search for Beyond the Standard Model physics is presented, targeting final states with at least four light leptons (electrons or muons). The search regions are separated by event topology and unsupervised machine learning is used to identify anomalous events in the full 140 fb-1$$^{-1}$$ of proton–proton collision data collected with the ATLAS detector during Run 2. No significant excess above the Standard Model background expectation is observed. Model-agnostic limits are presented in each topology, along with limits on several benchmark models including vector-like leptons, wino-like charginos and neutralinos, or smuons. Limits are set on the flavourful vector-like lepton model for the first time.

Aad, G↗
DOE OSTI2020

Laser Disdrometer Quantities (LDQUANTS) and Video Disdrometer Quantities (VDISQUANTS) Value-Added Products Report

Disdrometers are useful instruments that measure the distribution of raindrop sizes (drop size distribution: DSD) and the associated rainfall rates/accumulation as those raindrops fall to the ground. These DSDs are a quantity of interest to members of the modeler and observational communities. However, use of disdrometer data for model evaluation, radar monitoring, or other activities requires careful quality control and processing for key DSD properties of interest (e.g., the number concentration of drops) to ensure appropriate physical (scattering, fall speed) assumptions. The U.S. Department of Energy Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Laser Disdrometer Quantities and Video Disdrometer Quantities Value-Added Product (LDQUANTS/VDISQUANTS VAP) uses standard methods from Tokay et al. (e.g., 2013, 2014) to filter drops with unrealistic fall speeds. Further, it estimates several microphysical/geophysical quantities of parameterized DSDs (gamma or exponential assumption type fitting methods) as in previous disdrometer studies and ARM long-term efforts (e.g., Testud et al. 2001, Giangrande et al. 2014, Thompson et al. 2015). Disdrometers are also beneficial for cross-checks with other instrumentation, including rain gauges and radars. To support research interests and related radar monitoring activities, this product calculates radar equivalent quantities, including dual polarization radar quantities (e.g., Z, Differential Reflectivity ZDR, etc.), using T-Matrix scattering and additional wavelength, temperature, and drop shape assumptions (e.g., Thurai et al. 2007). All of these efforts allow disdrometer data sets to become more useful and easily handled by modeling and observational studies, or routine instrumentation checks.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
DOE OSTI2026

Horne et al. (2026) supporting files - WRF-LES model outputs for a summer heatwave event on June 2025 in Baltimore, MD

Brief Description Shown is the supporting information for Horne et al. (2026). These files include all outputs from the WRF model simulations and the observational datasets used for comparison in the study. Scripts are provided so users can recreate the manuscript's figures using the provided observational and modeling data. For more information regarding the study, please contact the primary author of the associated manuscript, Jason Horne. Horne, J. P., Pan, Y., Davis, K. J., Waugh, D., Ahlswede, B. J., Prince, N. E. (2026). Simulating near-surface environments in urban neighborhoods using WRF-LES: A case study of classic atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) during a heatwave event JAMES. (to be submitted)

atmosphere↗