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At least 1,009 records · Page 56

Machine Learning of Key Variables Impacting Extreme Precipitation in Various Regions of the Contiguous United States

Abstract Amplification in extreme precipitation intensity and frequency can cause severe flooding and impose significant social and economic consequences. Variations in extreme precipitation intensity, frequencies, and return periods can be attributed to many physical variables across spatial and temporal scales. Here we employ ensemble machine learning (ML) methods, namely random forest (RF), eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGB), and artificial neural networks (ANN), to explore key contributing variables to monthly extreme precipitation intensity and frequency in six regions over the United States. We further establish emulators for return periods. Results show that the ML models for intensity perform better in regions with obvious seasonality (i.e., Northern Great Plains, Southern Great Plains, and West Coast) than the other three regions (Northeast, Southwest, and Rocky Mountains), while for frequency the models perform well for most regions. The Shapley additive explanation is used to help explain the relationships between extreme precipitation characteristics and identify top variables for RF and XGB. We find that latent heat flux, relative humidity, soil moisture, and large‐scale subsidence are key common variables across the regions for both monthly intensity and frequency, and their compound effects are non‐negligible. The developed ML models capture the probability and return period of extreme precipitation well for all regions and may be used for decision making (e.g., infrastructure planning and design).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Topological Defect Engineering and $\mathcal{PT}$ Symmetry in Non-Hermitian Electrical Circuits

In this work, we employ electric circuit networks to study topological states of matter in non-Hermitian systems enriched by parity-time symmetry $\mathcal{PT}$ and chiral symmetry anti-$\mathcal{PT (APT)}$. The topological structure manifests itself in the complex admittance bands which yields excellent measurability and signal to noise ratio. We analyze the impact of $\mathcal{PT}$-symmetric gain and loss on localized edge and defect states in a non-Hermitian Su-Schrieffer-Heeger (SSH) circuit. We realize all three symmetry phases of the system, including the $\mathcal{APT}$-symmetric regime that occurs at large gain and loss. We measure the admittance spectrum and eigenstates for arbitrary boundary conditions, which allows us to resolve not only topological edge states, but also a novel $\mathcal{PT}$-symmetric $\mathbb{Z}_2$ invariant of the bulk. We discover the distinct properties of topological edge states and defect states in the phase diagram. In the regime that is not $\mathcal{PT}$ symmetric, the topological defect state disappears and only reemerges when $\mathcal{APT}$ symmetry is reached, while the topological edge states always prevail and only experience a shift in eigenvalue. Our findings unveil a future route for topological defect engineering and tuning in non-Hermitian systems of arbitrary dimension.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

Symmetry reduction of tensor networks in many-body theory: I. Automated symbolic evaluation of SU(2) algebra

Abstract The ongoing progress in (nuclear) many-body theory is accompanied by an ever-rising increase in complexity of the underlying formalisms used to solve the stationary Schrödinger equation. The associated working equations at play in state-of-the-art ab initio nuclear many-body methods can be analytically reduced with respect to angular-momentum, i.e. SU (2), quantum numbers whenever they are effectively employed in a symmetry-restricted context. The corresponding procedure constitutes a tedious and error-prone but yet an integral part of the implementation of those many-body frameworks. Indeed, this symmetry reduction is a key step to advance modern simulations to higher accuracy since the use of symmetry-adapted tensors can decrease the computational complexity by orders of magnitude. While attempts have been made in the past to automate the (anti-) commutation rules linked to Fermionic and Bosonic algebras at play in the derivation of the working equations, there is no systematic account to achieve the same goal for their symmetry reduction. In this work, the first version of an automated tool performing graph-theory-based angular-momentum reduction is presented. Taking the symmetry-unrestricted expressions of a generic tensor network as an input, the code provides their angular-momentum-reduced form in an error-safe way in a matter of seconds. Several state-of-the-art many-body methods serve as examples to demonstrate the generality of the approach and to highlight the potential impact on the many-body community.

Tichai, A.↗

ASCR@40: Highlights and Impacts of ASCR’s Programs

A report compiled by the ASCAC Subcommittee on the 40-year history of ASCR for the U.S. Department of Energy’s Office of Advanced Scientific Computing Research. The Office of Advanced Scientific Computing Research (ASCR) sits within the Office of Science in the Department of Energy (DOE). Per their web pages, “the mission of the ASCR program is to discover, develop, and deploy computational and networking capabilities to analyze, model, simulate, and predict complex phenomena important to the DOE.” This succinct statement encompasses a wide range of responsibilities for computing and networking facilities; for procuring, deploying, and operating high performance computing, networking, and storage resources; for basic research in mathematics and computer science; for developing and sustaining a large body of software; and for partnering with organizations across the Office of Science and beyond. While its mission statement may seem very contemporary, the roots of ASCR are quite deep—long predating the creation of DOE. Applied mathematics and advanced computing were both elements of the Theoretical Division of the Manhattan Project. In the early 1950s, the Manhattan Project scientist and mathematician John von Neumann, then a commissioner for the AEC (Atomic Energy Commission), advocated for the creation of a Mathematics program to support the continued development and applications of digital computing. Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) scientist John Pasta created such a program to fund researchers at universities and AEC laboratories. Under several organizational name changes, this program has persisted ever since, and would eventually grow to become ASCR.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Identification and Testing of Electric Vehicle Fast Charger Cybersecurity Mitigations

Fast-charging infrastructure for electric vehicles (EVs) is needed to enable and achieve the national goals of transitioning the vehicle fleet toward more electrification. Idaho National Laboratory, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, and the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) have jointly worked to identify, evaluate, and mitigate potential cyber-related consequences associated with fast charger systems. NREL contributed by considering cyberattack scenarios and consequences associated with integrating distributed energy resources (DERs) at fast-charging stations. The dynamic nature of fast-charger load profiles would encourage site operators to incorporate solar for energy cost reduction and energy storage for peak demand cost management at future charging facilities with multiple fast chargers at a site. These energy resources would be monitored and coordinated via a site energy management controller with data exchange between devices and local power metering infrastructure; thus, networking between devices and the design of the system becomes important in the overall cybersecurity posture. In addition, component vendors and system operators might have remote interfaces to any of these systems. It is therefore important to understand the breadth of the cyberattack surface and potential strategies to mitigate impacts. This project has focused on components and protocols expected to be found within a local charging site that includes multiple chargers and DER resources. Our methods and results are summarized in this final report.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Demonstration of Utility Managed Smart Charging for Multiple Benefit Streams (Final Report)

In the summer of 2020, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) awarded funding to Exelon’s Maryland utilities—Baltimore Gas and Electric (BGE), Delmarva Power & Light (DPL), and Potomac Electric Power Company (Pepco)—to implement the Smart Charge Management (SCM) pilot. This initiative aimed to design and implement managed electric vehicle (EV) charging strategies, evaluate the grid impacts of EV charging, and assess the utilities' ability to control EV load based on real-time grid conditions. The SCM pilot explored four aspects for continued improvement: (1) cybersecurity and managed charging functionality testing of two vendor platforms—WeaveGrid (telematics-based) and Shell Recharge Solutions (network-based)—which pursued charge scheduling and optimization through distinct approaches; (2) an analysis by Argonne National Laboratory (ANL) modeling team of three potential SCM enrollment scenarios within BGE and Pepco service territories over the next decade to assess future scalability; (3) employing customer engagement strategies, including surveys and a responsive pricing approach; and (4) the launch and implementation of pilots in Exelon’s Maryland territories in collaboration with WeaveGrid.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

A Reversed Impedance-Based Stability Criterion for IBR Grids: Preprint

The existing impedance-based stability criterion is effective for analyzing local control interactions; however, it is difficult to scale the existing criterion to analyze wide-area control interactions among numerous IBRs through a complex power system network. The scaled version of the existing criterion requires the impedance response of each IBR in the system as well as of the network looking from all the IBRs. It is quite challenging to obtain all these impedance responses because of the computational effort and the requirement of separately scanning the impedance of the network and the IBRs. We propose a reversed criterion for the impedance-based stability analysis to address these problems. In contrast to the existing criterion, the reversed criterion analyzes the stability of a power system when an IBR is disconnected from the system. The reversed criterion estimates the impact of an IBR on the frequency and damping of power system oscillation modes using the impedance scans of only the IBR and the grid at its terminal. It can be sequentially applied at different IBRs to evaluate their impact on the power system stability. In addition to scalability, the reversed criterion gives flexibility to focus only on a few selected IBRs, depending on their rating, the magnitude of oscillations observed at their terminals, and the vendor support available for implementing stabilizing control system updates. The reversed criterion is demonstrated on a 14-bus power system with 100% IBRs.

control interactions↗

Resilience Assessment Framework For Electric Distribution Systems Performance Under Extreme Conditions

The devastating impact of extreme weather-related events is increasingly evident on power grids, especially on distribution grids. The severity of their potential impact calls for 1) developing a suitable resilience assessment framework to capture the system performance and 2) assessing relevant mitigative strategies to lessen the impact of such events. This paper proposes a framework to identify grid vulnerabilities using the energy-at-risk concept to select, disconnect and isolate grid portions due to a resilience event. The proposed framework mainly consists of two steps; i) processing the utility's available infrastructure, i.e., a network model, possible switching combinations, and outage information for those combinations, as a graph-based database, and ii) implementing a novel optimal switching algorithm leveraging database and grid simulated metrics. These switching actions are generated to implement load curtailment in a rolling manner during anticipated grid scarcity conditions. In this study, a test case is created using two taxonomy feeders and is simulated against an extreme temperature event, e.g., a long, relatively cold, and prolonged freeze peak, thereby creating stress on the grid. It is demonstrated that the proposed framework allows utilities to predict the energy-at-risk during such resilience events and design suitable outage management strategies.

Poudel, Shiva↗

Studying the Impact of IBR Modeling on the Commonly Applied Transmission Line Protective Elements

It is a well-accepted fact that detailed inverter-based resource (IBR) models are needed for electromagnetic transient (EMT) studies, especially for protection studies and protection designs. However, it is not clear which modeling aspects should be included in the EMT model to accurately represent the IBR fault responses. Therefore, this paper addresses this gap by evaluating the impact of key modeling aspects (DC source, inverter model, power control, current/voltage control, and current limiting) on the response of protective relay elements both qualitatively and quantitatively. Both grid-following (GFL) and grid-forming (GFM) IBR models are comprehensively evaluated through a simplified real-world transmission network by varying the IBR modeling aspects, fault locations, and types. The insights and findings from this paper will benefit the power system protection community because this work provides modeling requirements and guidelines for IBR modeling so that correct IBR models will be used for protection scheme settings design.

grid-following inverter↗

Chemical Reactor Network Modeling of Ammonia Rich-Quench-Lean Combustion Using a Partially Stirred Reactor Approach

Ammonia is a promising alternative to hydrogen with high energy density and favorable storage and transport characteristics. However, low flammability and a propensity for high nitrogen oxide (NO x ) emissions make direct utilization challenging. Recently, two-stage rich-quench-lean (RQL) combustion strategies have shown promise in achieving low NO x emissions with ammonia. In this approach, the rich stage serves to oxidize a portion of the fuel while thermally decomposing as much of the remaining ammonia as possible, generating hydrogen. In the second (lean) stage, air is rapidly introduced, burning out the hydrogen and residual ammonia. Two-stage RQL combustion of ammonia has been investigated in the open literature both experimentally and numerically. In general, idealized chemical reactor network (CRN) models predict NO x concentrations below those of 2D/3D computational fluid dynamics models and experiments. The primary drivers of these discrepancies may be largely attributed to finite rate mixing nonadiabatic operation. The typical CRN model is comprised of a perfectly-stirred-reactor (PSR), followed by a plug-flow-reactor (PFR), meant to represent the flame, and postflame zones, respectively. In the two-stage RQL approach two PSR-PFR networks are arranged sequentially, corresponding to the rich and lean stages, with secondary air injection in between. In the authors' past work, this arrangement has demonstrated the significant sensitivity of exit NO x to the rich stage equivalence ratio, while the amount of secondary air injection was shown to be less critical. In this paper, the CRN model is extended to (1) include the impacts of heat loss and (2) utilize a partially-stirred-reactor (PaSR) approach to study the impacts of mixing on emissions performance. Varying amounts of heat loss are applied to the rich relaxation zone to understand emissions performance and changes to optimization of equivalence ratio and residence time. Premixed and nonpremixed configurations are considered in the rich stage PaSR, with varying degrees of mixing intensity to study the interaction between mixing, transport, and kinetic timescales. Critically, the impact of mixing between hot products and secondary air injection is studied to understand practical injector needs. Results show unburnt ammonia leaving the rich stage as a primary contributor to NO x emissions – driven both by increased heat loss and reduced mixing rates. Furthermore, heat losses have been shown to create conditions that are conducive to increased N 2 O formation in the lean stage. In conclusion, the results of this study will be considered in the context of developing optimized two-stage RQL combustors for ammonia.

Combustion↗

Resilience and economics of microgrids with PV, battery storage, and networked diesel generators

Current designs and assessments of microgrids have ignored component reliability, leading to significant errors in predicting a microgrid’s performance while islanded. Existing life cycle cost studies on hybrid microgrids—which combine photovoltaics (PV), battery storage and networked emergency diesel generators—also have not identified all the potential economic opportunities. Reducing the number of emergency diesel generators through reliance on PV and battery, retail bill savings, and demand response and wholesale market revenue streams are all important. This paper provides a new statistical methodology that calculates the impact of distributed energy reliability and variability on a microgrid’s performance and a novel use of the optimization platform REopt to explore multiple cost savings and revenue streams. We examine the impacts for microgrids in California, Maryland, and New Mexico and show that a hybrid microgrid is a more resilient and cost-effective solution than a diesel-only system. Under realistic conditions, a hybrid microgrid can provide higher system reliability when islanded and have a lower life cycle cost under multiple market conditions than a traditional diesel generator-based system. The improved performance of the hybrid system is resilient to conditions experienced over the last 20 years in solar irradiance and sees little degradation in performance immediately after a hurricane. The cost savings to provide this more resilient backup power system as compared to a diesel-only microgrid are significant. The net present cost for a hybrid microgrid is 19% lower in New Mexico and 35% lower in Maryland than a diesel-only microgrid. In California, the net present cost of the hybrid microgrid is negative because, unlike a diesel-only microgrid, a hybrid microgrid has lower life cycle costs than the power costs without a microgrid.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Probabilistic impact of electricity tariffs on distribution grids considering adoption of solar and storage technologies

This study models the role of electricity tariffs on the long-term adoption of photovoltaic and storage technologies as well as the consequent impact on the distribution grid. An adoption model that captures the economic rationality of tariff-driven investments and considers the stochastic nature of individual consumers’ decisions is proposed. This model is then combined with a probabilistic load flow to evaluate the long-term impacts of the adoption on the voltage profiles of the distribution grid. To illustrate the methodology, different components of the electricity tariffs, including solar compensation mechanisms and time differentiation of Time-of-Use (ToU) rates, are evaluated, using a case study involving a section of a medium-voltage network with 118 nodes.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Database and deep-learning scalability of anharmonic phonon properties by automated brute-force first-principles calculations

Understanding the anharmonic phonon properties of crystal compounds—such as phonon lifetimes and thermal conductivities—is essential for investigating and optimizing their thermal transport behaviors. These properties also impact optical, electronic, and magnetic characteristics through interactions between phonons and other quasiparticles and fields. In this study, we develop an automated first-principles workflow to calculate anharmonic phonon properties and build a comprehensive database encompassing more than 6500 inorganic compounds. Utilizing this dataset, we train a graph neural network model to predict thermal conductivity values and spectra from structural parameters, demonstrating a scaling law in which prediction accuracy improves with increasing training data size. High-throughput screening with the model enables the identification of materials exhibiting extreme thermal conductivities—both high and low. The resulting database offers valuable insights into the anharmonic behavior of phonons, thereby accelerating the design and development of advanced functional materials.

Ohnishi, Masato [University of Tokyo (Japan); Inst↗

Constrained GAN-Generated X-Ray CT Data For Self-Supervised And Foundation-Model Segmentation Of Concrete Microstructures

Three-dimensional characterization of materials using X-ray computed tomography (XCT) is challenging due to the complexity of internal structures, noise, and variations in resolution. Traditional computer vision models often struggle to accurately segment these images, particularly in domain-specific applications like materials science. While supervised deep learning approaches have been developed to address the limitations of conventional algorithms, they typically require large amounts of labeled training data and often fail to generalize across different datasets. Self-supervised, few-and zero-shot learning methods have gained prominence in natural image processing and segmentation tasks, but their application to scientific imaging remains limited due to the unique structural complexity, noise, and textural artifacts present in materials science data. In this work, we investigate how domain adaptation, leveraging physics-based and GAN-generated synthetic data, impacts segmentation performance. We introduce a modified Contrastive Unpaired Translation (CUT) model designed to generate realistic labeled data, which can be used for training, pre-training, and fine-tuning segmentation models for real XCT microstructure data. We evaluate the performance of two segmentation approaches: a self-supervised network (SSL-ALPNet) and a foundation model (Segment Anything Model), assessing their improvements when pre-trained and/or fine-tuned on the synthesized data. Our results demonstrate that leveraging synthetic data significantly enhances segmentation performance, particularly in challenging materials science applications.

Ziabari, Amir [ORNL] (ORCID:000000034776457X)↗

NuclPred v1

This tool takes a genome assembly as input and predicts per-site nucleosome occupancy as output. Trained on physical maps of nucleosome binding preferences across the fungal kingdom, NuclPred can be applied broadly across fungi (and other eukaryotes). This breadth, combined with its accuracy, means it could have both basic and applied biological implications, for example in understanding eukaryotic gene regulation and genetic engineering. Almost universally across eukaryotes, nucleosomes - each wrapping ~150 base pairs of DNA - serve to package DNA inside the nucleus, with major consequences on DNA access, gene activity and DNA integration. NuclPred was generated using a supervised deep learning approach combining convolutional and recurrent neural networks to take DNA features (nucleotides, GC content and structural information) as input, then use that information to predict the physical attractiveness DNA sequences might have for forming nucleosomes. With this information at hand, researchers can design more efficient CRISPR constructs, explore the interplay between DNA signatures and other regulators impact nucleosome locations, predict expression patterns, etc. This tool will be published as part of a manuscript currently under revision at iScience (draft attached).

Mondo, Stephen↗

Identifying precursors of daily to seasonal hydrological extremes over the USA using deep learning techniques and climate model ensembles

Focal Area(s): We focus on two areas of crosscutting interest for DOE: 1) predictability of extreme precipitation and drought in the USA and 2) the integration of climate models with new AI tools, such as convolutional neural networks (CNN) and methods to understand their output (e.g. layer-wise relevance propagation; LRP). This project fits into focus area 3 of this call for white paper using AI to gain insight from complex data, including explainable AI tools. Science Challenge: Predicting hydrological extremes is important due to their impacts on people, agriculture and infrastructure. This prediction is difficult due to the infrequent occurrence of extremes and their complexity. However, extreme events can be related to more predictable conditions in the ocean, such as El Nino, long-term soil moisture or large scale modes of climate variability, such as the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Advanced Research Directions on AI for Science, Energy, and Security: Report on Summer 2022 Workshops

Over the past decade, fundamental changes in artificial intelligence (AI)—from foundational to applied—have delivered dramatic insights across a wide breadth of U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) mission space. AI is helping to augment and improve scientific and engineering workflows (e.g., for control, design, and dramatic performance gains through surrogate models) in national security, the Office of Science, and DOE’s applied energy programs. The progress and potential for AI in DOE science was captured in the 2020 “AI for Science” report from the DOE laboratory community in collaboration with academia and industry. Specific scientific areas ready to further leverage the power of AI ranged from the scale and performance of computational models to data analysis to creating new classes of observations using computer vision. Since that report, the scale and scope of scientific AI have accelerated, revealing new, emergent properties that yield insights that go beyond enabling opportunities to being potentially transformative in the way that scientific problems are posed and solved. Thus, under the guidance of both the Office of Science (SC) and the National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA), the DOE national laboratories organized a series of workshops in 2022 to gather input on new and rapidly emerging opportunities and challenges of scientific AI. This 2023 report is a synthesis of those workshops. The scientific community believes AI can have a foundational impact on a broad range of DOE missions, including science, energy, and national security. Further, DOE has unique capabilities that enable the community to drive progress in scientific use of AI, building on long-standing DOE strengths and investments in computation, data, and communications infrastructure, spanning the Energy Sciences Network (ESnet), the Exascale Computing Project (ECP), and integrative programs such as the NNSA Office of Defense Programs Advanced Simulation and Computing (ASC) and the SC Scientific Discovery through Advanced Computing (SciDAC) programs.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

CyBERT: Cybersecurity Claim Classification by Fine-Tuning the BERT Language Model

We introduce CyBERT, a cybersecurity feature claims classifier based on bidirectional encoder representations from transformers and a key component in our semi-automated cybersecurity vetting for industrial control systems (ICS). To train CyBERT, we created a corpus of labeled sequences from ICS device documentation collected across a wide range of vendors and devices. This corpus provides the foundation for fine-tuning BERT’s language model, including a prediction-guided relabeling process. We propose an approach to obtain optimal hyperparameters, including the learning rate, the number of dense layers, and their configuration, to increase the accuracy of our classifier. Fine-tuning all hyperparameters of the resulting model led to an increase in classification accuracy from 76% obtained with BertForSequenceClassification’s original architecture to 94.4% obtained with CyBERT. Furthermore, we evaluated CyBERT for the impact of randomness in the initialization, training, and data-sampling phases. CyBERT demonstrated a standard deviation of ±0.6% during validation across 100 random seed values. Finally, we also compared the performance of CyBERT to other well-established language models including GPT2, ULMFiT, and ELMo, as well as neural network models such as CNN, LSTM, and BiLSTM. The results showed that CyBERT outperforms these models on the validation accuracy and the F1 score, validating CyBERT’s robustness and accuracy as a cybersecurity feature claims classifier.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗