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At least 1,009 records · Page 56

Regional Medium-Term Hourly Electricity Demand Forecasting Based on LSTM: Preprint

This paper aims to forecast high-resolution (hourly) aggregated load for a certain region in the medium term (a few days to over a year). One region is defined as some places with similar climate characteristics because the climate influences people's daily lifestyles and hence the electric usage. We decompose the electric usage records into two parts: base load and seasonal load. Considering both temperature and time factors, different deep-learning methods are adopted to characterize them. The first goal of our approach is to predict the peak load which is critical for power system planning. Furthermore, our proposed forecast method can provide the depiction of the hourly load profile to provide customized load curves for high-level real-time applications. The proposed method is tested on real-world historical data collected by CAISO, BPA, and PACW. The experimental results show that trained by three years of data, our method could reduce the prediction error for a one-year lead hourly load below 5% MAPE, and predict the occurrence of the peak load for next year in CAISO with an error within three days. Furthermore, as a byproduct, an interesting observation on the impact of COVID-19 on human life was made and discussed based on these case studies.

deep learning↗

NASA’s Pandora SmallSat Mission: Simulated Modeling and Retrieval of Near-infrared Exoplanet Transmission Spectra

Pandora is a SmallSat mission dedicated to understanding exoplanets and their host stars by disentangling the impact of stellar heterogeneity on exoplanet transmission spectra. Selected as a NASA Astrophysics Pioneers mission in 2021, Pandora will provide simultaneous long-term visible photometric monitoring (0.4–0.7 μm) and low-resolution near-infrared (NIR) spectroscopy (0.9–1.6 μm) of transiting systems for the purposes of monitoring host star variability and characterizing exoplanetary atmospheres. Pandora’s year-long prime mission from 2026 to 2027 coincides with the middle of a decade defined by targeted efforts for atmospheric characterization of exoplanets, offering a key opportunity to leverage this new resource to maximize science with JWST and other observatories. Here we investigate Pandora’s anticipated performance for the general exoplanet population accessible to transit spectroscopy, from hot Jupiters to temperate sub-Neptunes. By modeling the atmospheres of five test cases broadly consistent with the bulk properties of HD 209458b, HD 189733b, WASP-80 b, HAT-P-18 b, and K2-18 b, we find that Pandora may provide abundance constraints as precise as ∼1.0 dex for main atmospheric absorbers such as H 2 O and CH 4 . Then, we explore the synergies between Pandora and JWST. Our results suggest that targets with JWST data in the NIR can benefit from the addition of Pandora observations and result in more reliable abundance estimates than with JWST data alone. Moreover, Pandora can serve the community by providing precursory observations of targets of interest for JWST atmospheric characterization. We conclude by outlining strategies for the use of Pandora as a standalone observatory and in synergy with JWST.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Neutron irradiation & thermomechanical experiment (NITE) - design

For the reliable long-term operation of fusion power plants, it is crucial to understand and predict the lifetime of materials in use. These materials include all structural and functional materials utilized at the first wall, blanket, magnets, and shielding. The key challenge is, that the harsh environment including high heat fluxes, high thermal stress and stress cycling, neutron irradiation, and sputtering on such materials should not be viewed separately. Currently, the synergistic loads cannot be evaluated experimentally because of the lack of adequate facilities. The purpose of that work is to design a synergetic Neutron Irradiation and Thermomechanical Experiment (NITE) for fusion materials. This design will leverage the existing Advanced-Test-Reactor (ATR), a fission reactor at the Idaho National Laboratory. We also acknowledge that with existing fission reactors the exact fusion condition cannot be created, and the limitations are critically discussed. The combination of neutron irradiation with a high heat flux is the focus. This is realized with an irradiation capsule design that includes a TRISO fueled region inside the capsule to enable a steady-state heat flux on one side of the specimen. In conclusion, the experimental design modeling showed that steady-state heat fluxes of 2.4 MW/m 2 with a thermal gradient of above 250°C can be achieved in a 5 mm thick specimen.

70 - PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

A Comparative Study of Physics‐Informed and Data‐Driven Neural Networks for Compound Flood Simulation at River‐Ocean Interfaces: A Case Study of Hurricane Irene

Simulating compound flooding (CF) at the river-ocean interface within large-scale Earth System Models (ESMs) presents significant challenges due to complex interactions between river discharge, storm surge, and tides. This study assesses the comparative advantages of physics-informed and data-driven machine learning (ML) approaches for enhancing local ESM performance. We systematically compare data-driven neural network models (i.e., CNNs, U-Net, Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM), Gated Recurrent Unit), and physics-informed neural network (PINN) models, including vanilla PINN and a finite-difference-based PINN (FD-PINN). Specifically, FD-PINN is introduced to enhance computational efficiency, accelerating vanilla PINNs by ∼6.5 times while improving accuracy. To enhance data-driven model training, a new data-generation approach is developed to sample historical fluvial and coastal flood events, which ensures a robust data set for extreme event prediction. The models are evaluated using a realistic one-dimensional river domain extracted from an ESM's river mesh and the Hurricane Irene event as an independent test case. Results show that FD-PINN achieves accurate predictions with significantly reduced computational costs relative to vanilla PINNs. Among data-driven models, the best overall performance is achieved by a CNN-LSTM hybrid, which balances accuracy and efficiency. While a fully connected CNN (CNN-FC) provides the best accuracy, it incurs high computational cost. Architectures lacking strong temporal modeling tend to underperform on unseen events. These findings highlight the importance of sequence-aware designs for robust generalization. This study reveals the trade-offs between physics-informed and data-driven models and proposes an adaptive hybrid framework for integrating ML into ESMs to enhance local flood simulations.

Earth Systems Modeling↗

Electron energy loss spectroscopy database synthesis and automation of core-loss edge recognition by deep-learning neural networks

Abstract The ionization edges encoded in the electron energy loss spectroscopy (EELS) spectra enable advanced material analysis including composition analyses and elemental quantifications. The development of the parallel EELS instrument and fast, sensitive detectors have greatly improved the acquisition speed of EELS spectra. However, the traditional way of core-loss edge recognition is experience based and human labor dependent, which limits the processing speed. So far, the low signal–noise ratio and the low jump ratio of the core-loss edges on the raw EELS spectra have been challenging for the automation of edge recognition. In this work, a convolutional-bidirectional long short-term memory neural network (CNN-BiLSTM) is proposed to automate the detection and elemental identification of core-loss edges from raw spectra. An EELS spectral database is synthesized by using our forward model to assist in the training and validation of the neural network. To make the synthesized spectra resemble the real spectra, we collected a large library of experimentally acquired EELS core edges. In synthesize the training library, the edges are modeled by fitting the multi-Gaussian model to the real edges from experiments, and the noise and instrumental imperfectness are simulated and added. The well-trained CNN-BiLSTM network is tested against both the simulated spectra and real spectra collected from experiments. The high accuracy of the network, 94.9%, proves that, without complicated preprocessing of the raw spectra, the proposed CNN-BiLSTM network achieves the automation of core-loss edge recognition for EELS spectra with high accuracy.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Therapeutic Targeting of LIF Overcomes Macrophage-mediated Immunosuppression of the Local Tumor Microenvironment

Abstract Purpose: Leukemia inhibitory factor (LIF) is a multifunctional cytokine with numerous reported roles in cancer and is thought to drive tumor development and progression. Characterization of LIF and clinical-stage LIF inhibitors would increase our understanding of LIF as a therapeutic target. Experimental Design: We first tested the association of LIF expression with transcript signatures representing multiple processes regulating tumor development and progression. Next, we developed MSC-1, a high-affinity therapeutic antibody that potently inhibits LIF signaling and tested it in immune competent animal models of cancer. Results: LIF was associated with signatures of tumor-associated macrophages (TAM) across 7,769 tumor samples spanning 22 solid tumor indications. In human tumors, LIF receptor was highly expressed within the macrophage compartment and LIF treatment drove macrophages to acquire immunosuppressive capacity. MSC-1 potently inhibited LIF signaling by binding an epitope that overlaps with the gp130 receptor binding site on LIF. MSC-1 showed monotherapy efficacy in vivo and drove TAMs to acquire antitumor and proinflammatory function in syngeneic colon cancer mouse models. Combining MSC-1 with anti-PD1 leads to strong antitumor response and a long-term tumor-free survival in a significant proportion of treated mice. Conclusions: Overall, our findings highlight LIF as a therapeutic target for cancer immunotherapy.

Oncology↗

Commercialization of High-Density High Assay Low Enriched Uranium Fuel Systems

The Office of Reactor Conversion and Uranium Supply (NA 231) at the National Nuclear Security Administration leads the conversion effort for the United States High Performance Research Reactors (USHPRR). These reactors are the final civilian reactors in the US to transition from High Enriched Uranium (HEU) to high assay low enriched uranium (HALEU). Each of these reactors represents unique capabilities and no currently available fuel system meets their needs for conversion. The Fuel Fabrication (FF) Pillar of the USHPRR project is responsible for the fabrication of experimental elements, conversion elements, and establishing a commercial economical production capability. FF is also responsible to share with the domestic and international community the theoretical knowledge gained. Other pillars within the USHPRR project provide the experimental and conversion fuel designs, assist the reactors with licensing activities, and ensure the entire fuel cycle is evaluated. Over the last decade, FF has worked with the production partners at Y-12 National Security Complex (Y-12) and BWXT Nuclear Operations Group, Research and Test Reactors (BWXT). Y-12 has begun processing the alloy feedstock for the conversion elements with a qualified process. BWXT has started the final fabrication of the experimental elements. Once the experimental elements are complete, BWXT will begin conversion element fabrication. The FF Pillar resides at Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) and uses PNNL, universities, commercial vendors, and the DOE national laboratory system to evaluate process development activities to improve the process steps. FF supports the fabrication of two high density fuel systems, monolithic U-10Mo (Figure 1) and Uranium Silicide (Figure 2). The U-10Mo fuel system is further along the development process. FF assists in long term planning with the production partners. This includes ramping production of the elements from experimental quantities to annual steady state needs. As part of the ramp up, opportunities to improve yield and product quality are identified to ensure the fuel systems are cost effective.

Catalan, Michael A. [BATTELLE (PACIFIC NW LAB)]↗

Hydrodynamics and Load Shedding Behavior of a Variable-Geometry Oscillating Surge Wave Energy Converter (OSWEC)

In order to improve their long-term viability, wave energy converters (WECs) need to be able to shed loads when a threshold wave condition is exceeded. As shown by Tom et al. (2016) [1], provision of adjustable flaps within the body of an oscillating surge wave energy converter (OSWEC) allows wave energy to pass through the device. A control system may then be able to open and close the flaps when waves approaching the device exceed preset thresholds. The variable-geometry OSWEC (VG-OSWEC) concept studied in this paper is a bottom-hinged, rectangular wave paddle with five flaps of elliptical cross-section embedded into the face of the paddle. System ID tests were conducted on this VG-OSWEC device at a 1:14 scale in a wave basin. Free decay tests showed that the damping was distinctly nonlinear when the flaps were fully open, and the natural frequency increased by 40% when compared with the flaps in a fully closed configuration. Tests with regular wave conditions were used to develop the response amplitude operator for the rotational motion about the hinge. These response amplitude operator results when compared with numerical simulations run using WEC-Sim/WAMIT and ANSYS AQWA, show strong agreement with the flap open and closed conditions. The regular-wave condition measurements also show that the wave excitation moment about the hinge was reduced by up to 60% when the flaps were fully open. The experiments serve to demonstrate the potential of the variable geometry design to shed loads and survive harsh ocean environments.

load shedding↗

Application of Intelligent Load Control to Manage Building Loads to Support Rapid Growth of Distributed Renewable Generation

Electricity utilities are faced with the mounting challenge of providing a stable supply of power to meet the growing demand while also integrating rapid growth in distributed variable renewable generation. Traditional means of balancing short- and long-term supply and demand imbalance will be expensive. Alternative approaches of using flexible loads in buildings are needed to mitigate the imbalance at a lower cost. This paper shows how the intelligent load control (ILC) process can be used to manage loads in buildings by dynamically prioritizing loads for curtailment using both quantitative and qualitative criteria. The ILC process can be deployed on low-cost computing platforms without the need for any additional sensing. ILC was first validated in a simulation environment to provide two grid service use cases: (1) managing monthly peak electricity demand and (2) managing buildings’ electricity consumption during a capacity bidding event. After being successfully tested in a simulation environment, ILC was deployed on real buildings to manage electricity consumption to provide two different use cases under different outdoor operating conditions. Both the simulation tests and the real building experiments were deployed using VOLTTRON™, a distributed sensing and control platform. The results from the tests and experiments showed that ILC was able to manage the controllable loads (heat pumps) in the building to maintain the electricity consumption at the desired level without a significant impact on occupant comfort. Overall, the results demonstrate that the ILC allows coordination of the controllable loads and provides a more intelligent means of load management than the traditional duty-cycling approach.

Kim, Woohyun↗

Determination of Thermal Damage Threshold in THz Photomixers Using Raman Spectroscopy

The increase of device lifetime and reliability of THz photomixers will play an essential role in their possible future application. Therefore, their optimal work conditions/operation range, i.e., the maximal incident optical power should be experimentally estimated. We fabricated and tested THz photomixer devices based on nitrogen-implanted GaAs integrated with a Bragg reflector. Raman spectroscopy was applied to investigate the material properties and to disclose any reversible or irreversible material changes. The results indicate that degradation effects in the photomixer structures/material could be avoided if the total optical power density does not exceed levels of about 0.7 mW/µm 2 for 100 min of operation. Furthermore, the investigations performed during 1000 min of optical exposure on the photomixer devices’ central region comprising interdigitated metal-semiconductor-metal (MSM) structures suggest a reversible “curing” mechanism if the power density level of ~0.58 mW/µm 2 is not exceeded. Long-term operation (up to 1000 h) reveals that the photomixer structures can withstand an average optical power density of up to ~0.4 mW/µm 2 without degradation when biased at 10 V. Besides the decrease of the position of the A1g (LO) Raman mode from ~291 cm -1 down to ~288 cm -1 with increasing optical power density and operation time, broad Raman modes evolve at about 210 cm -1 , which can be attributed to degradation effects in the active photomixer/MSM area. In addition, the performed carrier lifetime and photomixer experiments demonstrated that these structures generated continuous wave sub-THz radiation efficiently as long as their optimal work conditions/operation range were within the limits established by our Raman studies.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Risk-Constrained Reinforcement Learning for Inverter-Dominated Power System Controls

Here, this paper develops a risk-aware controller for grid-forming inverters (GFMs) to minimize large frequency oscillations in GFM inverter-dominated power systems. To tackle the high variability from loads/renewables, we incorporate a mean-variance risk constraint into the classical linear quadratic regulator (LQR) formulation for this problem. The risk constraint aims to bound the time-averaged cost of state variability and thus can improve the worst-case performance for large disturbances. The resulting risk-constrained LQR problem is solved through the dual reformulation to a minimax problem, by using a reinforcement learning (RL) method termed as stochastic gradient-descent with max-oracle (SGDmax). In particular, the zero-order policy gradient (ZOPG) approach is used to simplify the gradient estimation using simulated system trajectories. Numerical tests conducted on the IEEE 68-bus system have validated the convergence of our proposed SGDmax for GFM model and corroborate the effectiveness of the risk constraint in improving the worst-case performance while reducing the variability of the overall control cost.

Frequency control↗

Efficient Region of Attraction Characterization for Control and Stabilization of Load Tap Changer Dynamics

In this article, we study the monitoring and control of long-term voltage stability considering load tap changer (LTC) dynamics. We show that under generic conditions, the LTC dynamics admit a unique stable equilibrium. For the stable equilibrium, we characterize an explicit inner approximation of its largest region of attraction (ROA). Compared to existing results, the computational complexity of the ROA characterization is drastically reduced. We propose a quadratically constrained linear program formulation for the ROA characterization problem. In addition, we formulate a second-order cone program for online voltage stability monitoring and control exploiting the proposed ROA characterization. Finally, we demonstrate the efficacy of the proposed formulations on the ROA characterization and stability monitoring and control using a standard IEEE test system.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Leveraging Additive Manufacturing to Fabricate High Temperature Alloys With Co-Designed Mechanical Properties and Environmental Resistance

A paradigm shift in the traditional sequential design approaches is critically essential to create application-specific hierarchical and multifunctional materials with superior long-term performance for next-generation energy technologies involving extreme environments. In the current work, we aim to leverage the flexibility and geometric/compositional complexity offered by additive manufacturing to demonstrate this new approach by codesigning a compositionally graded Ni-based alloy for molten salts\sCO 2 heat exchangers to enable mitigation of environmental degradation of surfaces exposed to molten halide salts, while simultaneously suppressing the consequent deterioration in mechanical stability. Further, thermokinetic modeling describing the underlying physics of thermally- and environmentally induced spatiotemporal compositional and microstructural evolution will be employed to predict the parameter space of material deposition processes and precisely identify the required composition gradient. Preliminary corrosion and mechanical testing of the dual material demonstrated the potential of the material to replace existing solid solution strengthened materials for this application.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Staged OMB for Modular Gasifier/Burner

The goal of this final project report is to comprehensively summarize the work conducted on project DE-FE0031506. In accordance with the Statement of Project Objectives (SOPO), the University of Kentucky Center for Applied Energy Research (UK CAER) (Recipient) has developed a staged opposed multi-burner (OMB) gasifier, scaled down from a commercial gasification technology to utilize coal slurry as feed for the high-temperature gasification. The project involved the design, fabrication, commissioning, parametric testing, and performance validation of the entrained gasifier with multiple burners to narrow the major near-term technical gaps that impede the application of small-size gasification by modularizing the system. Project results verified the UK CAER approach to address the major technical challenges on the gasification modularization for a distributed application at a small scale of 1-5 MWe, while maintaining advantages in cost and flexibility, which include: 1) a cost-effective burner configuration to provide high flexibility in both load and fuel feed; 2) the modularized staged-OMB to provide better gasification performance such as a desired temperature profile, better fuel conversion, better gasification efficiency, and long lifetimes of the refractory wall and burners; and 3) load control simply through changing the number of burners firing. UK CAER’s staged gasifier configuration, fuel blend performance, and economic evaluation shows promise, as summarized in this report, as an effective means for improved gasification efficiency with reduced operation cost and process complexity.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗

Whole Genome Sequencing Links Mycobacterium bovis From Cattle, Cheese and Humans in Baja California, Mexico

Mycobacterium bovis causes tuberculosis (TB) in cattle, which in turn can transmit the pathogen to humans. Tuberculosis in dairy cattle is of particular concern where the consumption of raw milk and dairy products is customary. Baja California (BCA), Mexico, presents high prevalence of TB in both cattle and humans, making it important to investigate the molecular epidemiology of the disease in the region. A long-term study was undertaken to fully characterize the diversity of M. bovis genotypes circulating in dairy cattle, cheese and humans in BCA by whole-genome sequencing (WGS). During a 2-year period, 412 granulomatous tissue samples were collected from local abattoirs and 314 cheese samples were purchased from local stores and vendors in BCA and sent to the laboratory for mycobacterial culture, histology, direct PCR and WGS. For tissue samples M. bovis was recovered from 86.8%, direct PCR detected 90% and histology confirmed 85.9% as mycobacteriosis-compatible. For cheese, M. bovis was recovered from 2.5% and direct PCR detected 6% of the samples. There was good agreement between diagnostic tests. Subsequently, a total of 345 whole-genome SNP sequences were obtained. Phylogenetic analysis grouped these isolates into 10 major clades. SNP analysis revealed putative transmission clusters where the pairwise SNP distance between isolates from different dairies was ≤3 SNP. Also, human and/or cheese isolates were within 8.45 (range 0–17) and 5.8 SNP (range 0–15), respectively, from cattle isolates. Finally, a comparison between the genotypes obtained in this study and those reported previously suggests that the genetic diversity of M. bovis in BCA is well-characterized, and can be used to determine if BCA is the likely source of M. bovis in humans and cattle in routine epidemiologic investigations and future studies. In conclusion, WGS provided evidence of ongoing local transmission of M. bovis among the dairies in this high-TB burden region of BCA, as well as show close relationships between isolates recovered from humans, cheese, and cattle. This confirms the need for a coordinated One Health approach in addressing the elimination of TB in animals and humans. Overall, the study contributes to the knowledge of the molecular epidemiology of M. bovis in BCA, providing insight into the pathogen's dynamics in a high prevalence setting.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Role of Mg:Al ratio and Pt promotion on mitigating the deactivation of Ni-based methane steam reforming catalysts

Ni-based catalysts for CH 4 steam reforming require fine-tuning to withstand deactivation under dynamic operation conditions relevant to emerging H 2 -driven technologies. This study investigates the impact of the Mg:Al ratio and Pt presence in catalyst composition on the activity and stability of industrially relevant Ni-based mono- and bimetallic catalysts during simulated daily start-up and shut-down cycles in various gas atmospheres. The evolution of the catalyst structure during extensive testing procedures was investigated in detail by complementary electron microscopy, in situ/operando XAS and XRD. The results obtained revealed that catalyst deactivation is promoted at high Mg:Al ratios and especially affects the monometallic catalysts. By converting CH 4 at lower temperatures, Pt regulates the extent of Ni oxidation and its incorporation into MgO lattice. Further prevention of catalyst deactivation was achieved by optimizing the reactor shut-down procedure to minimize the simultaneous exposure to high temperatures and H 2 O vapors. By flushing the reactor with N 2 only around the reaction extinction temperature, a fraction of Ni species is maintained in metallic state, which is beneficial for the long-term activity and reaction operation economy.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗