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A functional global sensitivity measure and efficient reliability sensitivity analysis with respect to statistical parameters

Sensitivity analysis and reliability assessment are two important aspects of structural and system safety. Epistemic uncertainty with respect to probabilistic model of input parameters due to lack of knowledge is present in many scarce-data applications and complicates the characterization of uncertainty in model response. In this article, we present two importance measures to evaluate the impact of distribution parameters on the probability distribution function (PDF) of the output and the failure probability. The epistemic uncertainty associated with the distribution parameters is modeled as random variables. Additionally, a modified extended polynomial chaos expansion (MEPCE) approach is introduced in which aleatory and epistemic random variables are modeled and propagated simultaneously while allowing the separate assessment for any single epistemic variable. A MEPCE-based kernel density estimation (KDE) construction provides a composite map from each epistemic variable to the response PDF. The functional global sensitivity index of the PDF with respect to the distribution parameters is thus derived, as a function of output, which is both more informative and more efficient than standard scalar sensitivity measures. Reliability sensitivity indices can be readily evaluated by integrating the global sensitivity index function over the failure zone. Three illustrative examples are used to demonstrate the proposed methodology.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Resolving experimental biases in the interpretation of diffusion experiments with a user-friendly numerical reactive transport approach

The reactive transport code CrunchClay was used to derive effective diffusion coefficients (D e ), clay porosities (ε), and adsorption distribution coefficients (K D ) from through-diffusion data while considering accurately the influence of unavoidable experimental biases on the estimation of these diffusion parameters. These effects include the presence of filters holding the solid sample in place, the variations in concentration gradients across the diffusion cell due to sampling events, the impact of tubing/dead volumes on the estimation of diffusive fluxes and sample porosity, and the effects of O-ring-filter setups on the delivery of solutions to the clay packing. Doing so, the direct modeling of the measurements of (radio)tracer concentrations in reservoirs is more accurate than that of data converted directly into diffusive fluxes. While the above-mentioned effects have already been described individually in the literature, a consistent modeling approach addressing all these issues at the same time has never been described nor made easily available to the community. A graphical user interface, CrunchEase, was created, which supports the user by automating the creation of input files, the running of simulations, and the extraction and comparison of data and simulation results. While a classical model considering an effective diffusion coefficient, a porosity and a solid/solution distribution coefficient (D e –ε–K D ) may be implemented in any reactive transport code, the development of CrunchEase makes it easy to apply by experimentalists without a background in reactive transport modeling. CrunchEase makes it also possible to transition more easily from a D e –ε–K D modeling approach to a state-of-the-art process-based understanding modeling approach using the full capabilities of CrunchClay, which include surface complexation modeling and a multi-porosity description of the clay packing with charged diffuse layers.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Thermomechanical Stress and Creep-Fatigue Analysis of a High-Temperature Prototype Receiver for Heating Particles

This work presents a three-dimensional (3D) thermomechanical model of a prototype-scale enclosed light trapping solar receiver for heating particles. Results of the thermoelastic model are used to estimate receiver lifetime under maximum flux conditions. A computational fluid dynamics (CFD) model is first developed to predict the temperature fields in a multi-panel assembly under steady operating conditions. Solar flux distributions on the receiver are obtained from the software package SolTrace and applied to the 3D thermal model. The subsequent particle heating is captured through a simplified 1D energy balance. Panel reradiation is considered through a surface-to-surface radiation model and natural convection loss to the surrounding air is captured in a representative fluid domain surrounding the receiver. The resulting temperature fields from the CFD analysis are used as inputs for a thermoelastic mechanical model with representative boundary conditions. With the resultant temperature and stress fields, a creep-fatigue damage and lifetime analysis is performed using the linear damage accumulation (LDA) theory. The Manson-Coffin formula and Larson Miller correlation are used to calculate the fatigue and creep, respectively. A maximum damage (corresponding to a 30-year service life) is defined for design assessment. The model was first developed and verified in detail by comparing with published results in the literature (temperature and stress profiles and distributions, and creep/fatigue damage fractions) for tubular solar receivers with supercritical carbon dioxide as the working fluid. It was then implemented to model a planar-cavity receiver with various design parameters. Specifically, three different design geometries are considered, and the results show that a maximum temperature of approximately 1200 K could be reached for each design with the given incident solar flux, with the main difference being the distribution of these temperatures. Preliminary resulting stresses for the small-scale prototype without design optimization vary from 20 MPa to 250 MPa for each design, with the maximum stresses occurring on the front face and concave geometry on the side of the panel. In future work, the developed methodology shown here will be applied to analyze a full-scale (50-150 MWth) receiver.

concentrated solar power↗

Code and Solution Verification Assessment of the CTF Thermal Hydraulic Subchannel Code

CTF is a thermal-hydraulics subchannel code jointly developed by Oak Ridge National Laboratory and North Carolina State University. Over the past seven years, the Consortium for Advanced Simulation of Light Water Reactors (CASL) has made a significant investment in developing CTF so it can be used to model light water reactors, including nominal operating conditions, departure from nucleate boiling analysis, and transients ranging from loss of flow to reactivity insertion accidents. In addition to implementing new modeling capabilities and developing the user input and output interface, extensive work has been performed to improve the code’s quality assurance program, resulting in a development process that conforms with NQA-1 requirements. The CASL program follows the Predictive Capability Maturity Model (PCMM) approach for assessing code quality, which emphasizes performing code verification(ensuring the code converges to the correct answer) and solution verification (ensuring the code converges for the intended application). Code and solution verification are used to identify uncertainty errors introduced by numerical approximations in the code and are important for demonstrating that the model is coded without error, which is an important aspect of the Best Estimate plus Uncertainty method. This paper presents a comprehensive overview of the code and solution verification testing that has been performed on CTF. A top-down approach is taken in which the intended CTF applications are presented, followed by the code features required for their modeling. These features are then linked to the applicable code and solution verification tests that demonstrate proper functioning. Past testing efforts are summarized, and new tests are added to help close gaps in the presented test matrix. Rather than performing “one-off” exercises, these tests are added to the automated CTF regression test suite to ensure continual code quality.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

Convenient analytical formula for cluster mean diameter and diameter dispersion after nucleation burst

Here, we propose an alternative method of estimating the mean diameter and dispersion of clusters of particles, formed in a cooling gas, right after the nucleation stage. Using a moment model developed by Friedlander [S. K. Friedlander, Ann. N. Y. Acad. Sci. 404, 354 (1983)], we derive an analytic relationship for both cluster mean diameter and diameter dispersion as a function of two of the characteristic times of the system: the cooling time and the primary constituents collision time. These formulas can be used to predict diameter and dispersion variation with process parameters, such as the initial primary constituents' concentration or cooling rate. It is also possible to use them as an input to the coagulation stage, without the need to compute complex cluster generation during the nucleation burst. We compared our results with a nodal code (NGDE) and got excellent agreement.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

Development of a Convolutional Neural Network Classifier for Data Starved Spectra - 20199

The Institute for Clean Energy Technology (ICET) at Mississippi State University is exploring the utility of machine learning in augmenting its mobile radiation surveying platforms, which are currently being developed as means to survey depleted uranium contaminated areas in support of remediation and decommissioning efforts. Mobile survey platforms provide a means to efficiently scan large areas of interest while reducing human exposure to radiation and other hazards. The survey platforms can also be used for scanning for any gamma emitting isotope in addition to depleted uranium. The spectral data that the platforms collect may be data starved with relatively low counts and poorly defined spectral features depending on the speed of the platforms and scintillation detector selection. Such data-starved spectra are difficult to use for isotope identification, requiring advanced knowledge of the possible radionuclides that could be present and environmental factors that could attenuate signals or introduce background noise. These factors in combination with the volume of survey data increases the time it takes to perform analysis of survey data when the source type is unknown. There are a number of algorithms in the field of machine learning that can be used to classify data that would be challenging and time-consuming for a human to identify. Supervised machine learning algorithms train models based on extensive amounts of human-labeled training data. Once sufficiently trained, these models can be used to quickly make high-fidelity predictions on new data. Convolutional neural networks are machine learning algorithms that excel in learning representations of 'shapes'. They do this by taking numerical input data and convolving them with spatial feature detectors referred to as filters. These filters are incrementally adjusted to reduce the prediction error on the data during the backpropagation step of training. Discussed in this paper is the development of a convolutional neural network classifier (CNNC) that can utilize spectral survey data for source discrimination and isotope identification. Bench-top laboratory experiments data using LaBr{sub 3}(Ce) scintillation detectors were used to train and evaluate the performance of the developed CNNC. The CNNC is capable of discriminating a variety of gamma emitting source types, differentiating different forms of uranium (depleted vs. natural), and estimating the amount of uranium for a known geometry. The discussed CNNC may be useful in scenarios where survey systems are deployed in situations where hazardous radioactive material maybe present, but the type is unknown. When used in remediation applications the CNNC can be used to screen-out false positives, helping reduce remediation costs. (authors)

07 ISOTOPE AND RADIATION SOURCES↗

Kaon leptonic and semileptonic decays with $N_f=2+1+1$ HISQ fermions

Precision tests of the Standard Model (SM) currently show a deficit in first-row Cabibbo-Kobayashi-Maskawa (CKM) unitarity. In this talk, we discuss progress towards a correlated analysis of the lattice-QCD inputs needed to test this relation with kaon data using highly improved staggered quarks (HISQ) on the MILC $N_{f}=2+1+1$ configurations. We present the status of a new analysis of light-meson decay constant data where chiral-continuum fits are guided by staggered chiral perturbation theory (SChPT). The goal of SChPT is twofold: it allows us to use data not only at physical pion mass but also at unphysical masses. Moreover, it provides values of ChPT low energy constants (LECs) as well as their correlations. We also present a reanalysis of our previous kaon semileptonic form factor calculation, aiming to estimate correlations between the form factor and light-meson decay constants. We discuss the new methodology, new data included, and present some preliminary results.

Merino, Ramón [Granada U.] (ORCID:000900039150393X↗

Characterizing and improving the performance of molten-salt-steam heat exchangers in concentrating solar power plants

Shell-and-tube heat exchangers (HXs) for steam generation from molten salts in concentrating solar power (CSP) plants experience thermal fatigue due to significant temperature gradients and inherent transient operation. Molten salt-steam HX design lifespans exceed actual lifespans, and, as a consequence, designers overpredict plant profitability and operators neglect appropriate prescriptions to optimize these lifetimes. Here, this study refines HX lifespan estimates with data benchmarked against thermal-fluid mechanical modeling of stress and accumulated fatigue. Reduced-order thermal models of the molten salt-steam, shell-and-tube evaporator and superheater predict transient temperature profiles along the two HXs salt-steam flow paths. The modeled evaporator and superheater temperature profiles enable assessment of cyclic stresses within the HX tubesheets, where molten-salt HX failures are most common. Evaporator and superheater performance data from a current 110 MW elec commercial CSP plant provide a basis for validating the reduced-order HX models. HX life predictions derived from stochastic failure distributions serve as inputs for simulating and optimizing existing plant operations. The impact of the updated lifespans on overall plant revenue depends on operating scenarios. This study suggests that typical ramping rates for a CSP plant with a high-temperature Rankine cycle result in an evaporator and superheater life of approximately 10 and 25 years, respectively, compared to the design target of 30 years. Reduced HX lifespans decrease operational plant revenue on average by 4.6-5.1%. Furthermore, there may be as many as four HX replacements over the 30-year lifetime of the plant; and, purchase agreement loss due to failure to meet contractual production requirements can have ramifications that include the risk of bankruptcy.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Method for measurement of TRISO kernel and layer volumes by X-ray computed tomography

Layer dimensions are key parameters for as-fabricated tristructural-isotropic (TRISO) particle fuel as well as for post-irradiation examination of particle performance. Layer thicknesses are typically measured by optical microscopy of the particle cross section near mid-plane, while layer volumes are estimated with serial sectioning and microscopy. This method for measuring layer volumes is limited due to the resolution limit imposed by slice thickness and the effect of the polishing process on delicate irradiated particle microstructures. In this study, image processing software has been developed to segregate the three-dimensional (3D) TRISO particle images provided by x-ray computed tomography (XCT) into high-resolution volumetric data for the kernel, all particle layers, and any internal voids introduced during irradiation. These data can be used to analyze key in-reactor behaviors of TRISO particles such as kernel swelling or buffer shrinkage, which are important inputs for fuel performance modeling.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Experimental spectrum averaged cross sections (SACS) in 252 Cf(sf) neutron field and its impact on the evaluation of neutron standards

A new evaluation of spectrum averaged cross sections (SACS) of 235 U, 238 U, and 239 Pu measured in the 252 Cf(sf) reference neutron field is presented and found to be consistent with the original Mannhart SACS evaluation in IRDF-2002. The comprehensive vetted experimental database that includes SACS ratio and absolute SACS measurements of major actinides is being used to update the SACS database employed as input of the new GMApy code to derive the Neutron Standards. An update of the current neutron standards based on Time Projection Chamber (TPC) shape data, a new comprehensive uncertainty quantification, and revised SACS experimental database is proposed which result in a 0.7% increase of the evaluated 239 Pu(n,f)/ 235 U(n,f) crosssection ratio in the 1–5 MeV energy region. The increase is due to a 0.3% reduction of the standard 235 U(n,f) cross section and a 0.4% increase of the 239 Pu(n,f) reference cross section in the 1–5 MeV energy region. Those changes are well within estimated USU fission cross-section uncertainties of 1.2%, but are relevant for the evaluated mean values.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Techno-Economic Analysis of Green Hydrogen Energy Storage in a Cryogenic Flux Capacitor

Abstract The Cryogenic Flux Capacitor (CFC) is a cold, dense energy storage core that is being studied in the cryo-compressed, about 300 bar and 80K, region of gaseous hydrogen (GH2) storage and liquid hydrogen (LH2) region near the normal boiling point. Hydrogen storage is improved by physically bonding the molecules within the nanoscale pores of the aerogel composite blanket material. The process of bonding or debonding is governed by principles of physical adsorption (physisorption) and thermodynamics. The large surface area afforded by the nanoporous aerogel (∼1,000 m2/g) allows its storage performance to easily exceed capacities of high-pressure GH2 storage for an equivalent volume. With the integrated aerogel, subscale tests have shown that storage is increased by about 36% over a simple tank filled with GH2 at the same operating temperature and pressure. For LH2 conditions, the CFC is shown to operate at improved densities, but testing is ongoing. For the techno-economic analysis (TEA), the source of hydrogen is compared between onsite steam methane reforming (SMR) and onsite solar photovoltaic (PV) panels providing power to electrolyzers to produce green GH2. The TEA compares pure hydrogen produced at a small scale for a 25 MW power system and at a large scale in a 500 MW power system. The system allowed for hydrogen imports and exports at a set price with a tank sized for 10 hours of power production. The two power producing technologies are a combined cycle gas turbine (CCGT) and hydrogen fuel cells. The SMR system uses natural gas as an input and includes a carbon capture and storage (CCS) system. The levelized cost of electricity (LCOE), levelized cost of hydrogen (LCOH), and levelized cost of storage (LCOS) are developed based on the capital cost and operating cost of the systems. The results are shown for current costs using a 2021 benchmark and DOE projections for cost improvements by 2030. The TEA showed that onsite hydrogen generation from SMR has an LCOH of about 1.4 to 2 USD per kg over the life of the plant and the PV hydrogen production LCOH is about 5.2 to 5.5 USD per kg. The LCOS of conventional GH2 systems is estimated to be $210/MWh and cost of storage for LH2 systems is $205/MWh for fuel cell systems and $249/MWh for CCGT systems. CFC improved the LCOS of all these systems to $198/MWh, $191/MWh and $233/MWh respectively. The LCOE also improved with conventional systems between $171/MWh and $228/MWh improved by CFC to between $167/MWh and $212/MWh. Using projections for improvement in costs following DOE’s goals by 2030, green hydrogen improved to as low as $78/MWh LCOS and LCOE for conventional cases. CFC improved over conventional storage with the lowest LCOS being $62/MWh and the lowest LCOE being $73/MWh. These results correspond to an LCOH of $2/kg. Finally, the TEA shows how LCOE is improved for hydrogen conditioning and storage over conventional systems and caverns in the 10 to 50 hour range.

08 HYDROGEN↗

Regional Relative Risk, a Physics-Based Metric for Characterizing Airborne Infectious Disease Transmission

Airborne infectious disease transmission events occur over a wide range of spatial scales and can be an important means of disease transmission. Physics- and biology-based models can assist in predicting airborne transmission events, overall disease incidence, and disease control strategy efficacy. We describe a new theory that extends current approaches for the case in which an individual is infected by a single airborne particle, including the scenario in which numerous infectious particles are present in the air but only one causes infection. A single infectious particle can contain more than one pathogenic microorganism and be physically larger than the pathogen itself. This approach allows robust relative risk estimates even when there is wide variation in (i) individual exposures and (ii) the individual response to that exposure (the pathogen dose-response function can take any mathematical form and vary by individual). Based on this theory, we propose the regional relative risk—a new metric, distinct from the traditional relative risk metric, that compares the risk between two regions. In theory, these regions can range from individual rooms to large geographic areas. In this paper, we apply the regional relative risk metric to outdoor disease transmission events over spatial scales ranging from 50 m to 20 km, demonstrating that in many common cases minimal input information is required to use the metric. Also, we demonstrate that the model predictions are consistent with data from prior outbreaks. Future efforts could apply and validate this theory for other spatial scales, such as transmission within indoor environments. This work provides context for (i) the initial stages of an airborne disease outbreak and (ii) larger-scale disease spread, including unexpected low-probability disease “sparks” that potentially affect remote populations, a key practical issue in controlling airborne disease outbreaks.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

CHESS 2025: Spectrometer orthorectified at-sensor radiance from NEON AOP imaging spectroscopy surveys

This dataset provides Level 1 (L1) orthorectified at-sensor radiance derived from measurements collected by the Imaging Spectrometer-1 (NIS-1) onboard the NEON (National Ecological Observatory Network) Airborne Observation Platform (AOP) for the 2025 Colorado Headwaters Ecological Spectroscopy Study (CHESS). NIS-1 captures light reflected from the Earth’s surface in 426 discrete wavelength bands as raw digital numbers (DNs; Level 0). These data are then calibrated to physical units (uW/cm²·sr·nm) following the processing steps described in the NEON Imaging Spectrometer Level 1B Calibrated Radiance Algorithm Theoretical Basis Document (ATBD; Gallery 2022). The data delivered here are the primary inputs for the surface reflectance product in “Custom surface reflectance, shade masks, and equivalent water thickness maps for the Colorado Headwaters Ecological Spectroscopy Study” (Carroll et al. 2026). For intertemporal comparison, the radiance data here are most directly relatable to the v2 radiance data in “NEON AOP Imaging Spectroscopy Survey of Upper East River Colorado Watersheds: Raw-Space Radiance and Observational Variable Dataset” (Goulden et al. 2018), to which the same processing methodology was applied. Together, the radiance and reflectance data enable users to exploit the unique reflection signatures of different surface objects for land cover classification, foliar trait mapping, plant vigor assessment, water content estimation, trace-element identification, and other scientific applications. The data were acquired over three study domains in the Upper Gunnison river basin: the upper East River watershed (CRBU); Almont Triangle and Taylor Canyon (ALMO); and Upper Taylor River watershed (UPTA) between 2025-06-13 and 2025-07-15. Within each domain, data are delivered by flightline as orthorectified and calibrated hyperspectral rasters in Hierarchical Data Format version 5 (HDF5) format, with radiance values provided in uW/cm²·sr·nm on a fixed, uniform Universal Transverse Mercator (UTM) grid at 1 meter spatial resolution. The radiance rasters include all 426 NIS-1 spectral bands, along with associated quality-assurance (QA) and diagnostic and ancillary layers needed for atmospheric correction workflows. Orthorectified radiance is produced from pushbroom spectrometer observations by applying NEON’s radiometric calibration (including bad pixel masking, dark subtract, dark pedestal shift correction, electronic panel ghost correction, grating ghost correction, deblur correction and flat-fielding) and spectral calibration (using spectral response function band centers and full-width at half-maximum intensity), followed by geolocation and regridding to the fixed grid. CHESS Project Description: The Colorado Headwaters Ecological Spectroscopy Study (CHESS) comprised a multi-week airborne remote sensing and field observation campaign in the Upper Gunnison Basin, Colorado, conducted in June and July of 2025. Airborne remote sensing was conducted by the National Ecological Observatory Network Airborne Observation Platform (NEON AOP), concurrent with a field campaign run by the Rocky Mountain Biological Laboratory (RMBL), the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL) and SLAC National Accelerator Laboratory Watershed Function Science Focus Area (SFA), and NASA-JPL (Jet Propulsion Laboratory) Earth Surface Mineral Dust Source Investigation (EMIT) program. Between June 10 and July 18, 2025, the NEON AOP flight team collected high-resolution aerial imaging spectroscopy and Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) data over three domains: the Upper East River (CRBU), Almont Triangle (ALMO), and the Upper Taylor Basin (UPTA). In coordination with the flights, a field campaign acquired ground-truth observations, including observations of vegetation composition, foliar traits, forest demography, and subsurface properties in 18 core sampling areas within the domains. Additional surface water observations were taken at over 380 point locations. All CHESS campaign datasets can be found within the CHESS ESS-DIVE data portal: https://data.ess-dive.lbl.gov/portals/chess. Funding Acknowledgement: Field and remote-sensing data acquisition was performed under a grant from the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (80NSSC24K1005). This work was also supported by the Watershed Function Science Focus Area at Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory funded by the US Department of Energy, Office of Science, Biological and Environmental Research under Contract No. DE-AC02-05CH11231.

2018 NEON and 2025 CHESS Campaigns↗

Stochastic Framework for Optimal Control of Planetary Reentry Trajectories Under Multilevel Uncertainties

We present a novel stochastic optimal control framework that accounts for various types of uncertainties, with application to reentry trajectory planning. The formulation of the optimal trajectory control problem is presented in the context of an indirect method where a functional objective associated with the terminal vehicle speed is to be minimized. Uncertain input parameters in the optimal trajectory control model, including aerodynamic parameters and initial and terminal conditions, are modeled as aleatory random variables, while the statistical parameters of these aleatory distributions are themselves random variables. The parametric and model uncertainties are simultaneously propagated through an extended polynomial chaos expansion (EPCE) formalism. Several metrics are described to evaluate response statistics and presented as insightful tools for robust decision making. Specifically, the response probability density function (PDF) reflecting influence of both epistemic and aleatory uncertainties is obtained. By sampling over the random variables representing model error, an ensemble of response PDFs is generated and the associated failure probability is estimated as a random variable with its own polynomial chaos expansion. Besides, the sensitivity index functions of response PDF with respect to the statistical parameters are evaluated. Coupling parametric and model uncertainties within the EPCE framework leads to a robust and efficient paradigm for multilevel uncertainty propagation and PDF characterization in general optimal control problems.

Engineering↗

High-Resolution South American Wind Resource Data Downscaled with Generative Machine Learning Conditioned on Near-Surface Observations

High-resolution historical wind data was developed for the entirety of South America using the innovative Super-Resolution for Renewable Resource Data (sup3r) machine learning framework. The publicly available Sup3rWind South America dataset represents a significant advancement in wind resource data generation, leveraging generative machine learning conditioned on near-surface observations from the Meteorological Assimilation Data Ingest System (MADIS) to efficiently and accurately downscale coarse reanalysis data from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ERA5). This approach produces fine-scale, spatially and temporally coherent wind and meteorological fields hundreds of times more computationally efficient than traditional numerical weather modeling methods, enabling access to high-fidelity wind information across both continental and offshore regions. Sup3rWind South America builds on the earlier Sup3rWind Ukraine dataset through improvements in model architecture and outputs conditioned on near-surface observation inputs. As with the Ukraine data release, this dataset includes wind speed, wind direction, temperature, relative humidity, and pressure at a horizontal resolution of ~2 km, representing a 15x spatial enhancement relative to the 31 km ERA5 grid. Wind speed and direction are provided at 5-minute resolution, a 12x temporal refinement compared to the hourly ERA5 data, while temperature, relative humidity, and pressure remain at hourly resolution. The data covers all years from 2005 to 2024. Before downscaling, ERA5 inputs were bias-corrected using long-term monthly means and a limited number of quality-controlled observations to align large-scale statistics with regional conditions. The resulting dataset is the first publicly available high-resolution timeseries wind record that provides full spatial coverage of South America. Model validation demonstrates strong agreement with observations across several statistical metrics, consistent with other state-of-the-art high-resolution wind resource datasets. The potential applications of Sup3rWind South America span renewable energy resource assessment, energy system modeling, and grid resilience analysis. The 20-year record and high spatial and temporal resolution support accurate estimation of long-term energy yield and the economic feasibility of potential wind development sites. Continuous coverage across both continental and offshore regions enables comprehensive site prospecting within exclusive economic zones. The 2 km, 5-minute resolution data provide the spatial and temporal variability required for power system simulation, operational planning, and regional risk assessments.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Modeling of a 43 GHz microplasma within a photonic crystal

The electron density (n e ) and argon metastable density (1 s 5 ) of a 43GHz microplasma are obtained using the zero-dimensional plasma kinetics solver (ZDPlasKin®) for an incident power of 160 and 1000mW and argon pressures of 10–600Torr (1.3 ×10 3 to 8.0 × 10 4 Pa). These simulations are compared with previously published experimental data. To determine the self-consistent electric field in the modeled plasma, the three-dimensional millimeter wave fields are computed as a function of electron density using ANSYS EM19.2, HFSS®. This electromagnetic field model is coupled to ZDPlasKin such that any increase in the simulated plasma density correctly attenuates the simulated electric field within the microplasma. The electron density is found to be sensitive to argon gas temperature, so a two-zone temperature model was needed to obtain agreement with experimental measurements. The temperature in the central core of the microplasma was determined by a previous experimental study. That temperature was used as an input to the model for the simulation of volume recombination losses. The outer regions of the microplasma are assumed to be in equilibrium with the walls (300K). This second temperature was used in the model to determine diffusion losses. The modeled electron and metastable densities are of the order 10 20 and 10 18 m –3 , respectively. This is in good agreement with those measured experimentally as long as the two-zone temperature model is used. In the absence of a hot gas core, the modeled three-body recombination rates are excessive and the simulation severely under-predicts the electron density and over-estimates the metastable density. We conclude that the millimeter wave microplasma has a hot core (2500K at 600 Torr) that rarifies the argon gas and effectively reduces three-body recombination. Furthermore, this allows one to achieve high electron density on the order of 10 20 m –3 with only 100mW of wave power.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Calculated Roughness Changes due to Clear-Cutting At Savannah River Site

At the Savannah River Site (SRS), multiple facilities are routinely producing and working with radiological constituents which require safety basis modeling by the National Nuclear Safety Administration. The models used to determine the safety basis employ roughness length as an input parameter which describes the roughness of the ground surface which influences momentum exchange near the surface and the subsequent generation of mechanical turbulence. Because roughness length is dependent on surface characteristics, including vegetation, any changes to the surface would have a subsequent impact on the roughness length and require a new safety basis analysis to be performed. An analysis of measurements prior to and after the dear-cuts and thinning was performed and roughness lengths were calculated for each of sixteen wind sectors. Not all sectors contained dear-cuts, so this provides comparison of natural variations in roughness. Based on the results of the estimated changes, consideration will be given to how these changes may affect atmospheric dispersion modeling. It was found that clear-cutting activities generally led to a reduction in roughness. Reductions in roughness length also occurred in some of the wind sectors containing only undisturbed forest, but those in sectors with dear-cuts were found to be slightly greater in magnitude than natural variation. Only in one instance was the change in roughness length found to exceed a decrease of 10%, indicating that there is no significant safety basis to the site as a whole based on previous clear-cutting activities.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Expansion and Update of the R&D Feedstock Carbon Intensity Calculator (FD-CIC) for R&D GREET 2025

The R&D Feedstock Carbon Intensity Calculator (R&D FD-CIC) is a transparent and easy-touse tool to estimate feedstock-specific carbon intensity (CI) of biofuel feedstocks, and to examine potential CI variations of different farming practices to grow agricultural feedstocks for biofuel production. The objective of the tool is to assess potential effects of different farming practices with underlined factors to reduce uncertainties in such assessment and help R&D activities. The original work and early versions of R&D FD-CIC were supported by Advanced Research Projects Agency–Energy (ARPA-E) of the Department of Energy, with recent support by the Bioenergy Technologies Office of the Department of Energy. The tool uses life cycle inventory (LCI) data of key farming inputs from the R&D Greenhouse gases, Regulated Emissions, and Energy use in Technologies (R&D GREET) model. The system boundary of R&D FD-CIC covers the cradle-to-farm-gate activities, including upstream emissions related to farming input manufacturing and feedstock production.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗