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At least 1,009 records · Page 56

General Protocol for the Accurate Prediction of Molecular 13 C/ 1 H NMR Chemical Shifts via Machine Learning Augmented DFT

An accurate prediction of NMR chemical shifts at affordable computational cost is very important for different types of structural assignments in experimental studies. Density functional theory (DFT) and gauge-including atomic orbital (GIAO) are two of the most popular computational methods for NMR calculation, yet they often fail to resolve ambiguities in structural assignments. In this work, we present a new method that uses machine learning (ML) techniques (DFT + ML) that significantly increases the accuracy of 13 C/ 1 H NMR chemical shift prediction for a variety of organic molecules. The input of the generalizable DFT + ML model contains two critical parts: one is a vector providing insights into chemical environments, which can be evaluated without knowing the exact geometry of the molecule; the other one is the DFT-calculated isotropic shielding constant. The DFT + ML model was trained with a data set containing 476 13 C and 270 1 H experimental chemical shifts. For the DFT methods used here, the root mean square deviations (RMSDs) for the errors between predicted and experimental 13 C/ 1 H chemical shifts can be as small as 2.10/0.18 ppm, which is much lower than those from simple DFT (5.54/0.25 ppm), or DFT + linear regression (LR) (4.77/0.23 ppm) approaches. It also has a smaller maximum absolute error than two previously proposed NMR-predicting ML models. The robustness of the DFT + ML model is tested on two classes of organic molecules (TIC10 and hyacinthacines), where the correct isomers were unambiguously assigned to the experimental ones. Overall, the DFT + ML model shows promise for structural assignments in a variety of systems, including stereoisomers, that are often challenging to determine experimentally.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Empirical radius formulas for canonical neutron stars from bidirectionally selecting features of equations of state in extended Bayesian analyses of observational data

Significant advancement in Bayesian inference of nuclear equation of state (EOS) from gravitational wave and x-ray observations of neutron stars (NSs) has been made by the nuclear astrophysics community especially since GW170817. By extending the traditional Bayesian analysis which normally ends at presenting the marginalized posterior probability distribution functions (PDFs) of individual EOS parameters and their correlations (or sometimes only the Pearson correlation coefficients which are only reliably useful when the variables are linearly correlated while they are actually often not), we search for a data-driven and robust empirical formula for the radius 𝑅 1.4 of canonical NSs in terms of the characteristic EOS parameters (features). We also identify the single most important but currently poorly known EOS parameter for determining the 𝑅 1.4 . Using three regression-model-building methodologies: bidirectional stepwise feature selection, least absolute shrinkage selection operator (LASSO) regression, and neural network regression on a large set of posterior EOSs and the corresponding 𝑅 1.4 values inferred from earlier comprehensive Bayesian analyses of NS observational data, we systematically and rigorously develop the most probable 𝑅 1.4 formulas with varying statistical accuracy and technical complexity. Here, the most important EOS parameters for determining 𝑅 1.4 are found consistently in each of the feature selection processes to be (in order of decreasing importance): curvature 𝐾 sym , slope 𝐿, skewness 𝐽 sym of nuclear symmetry energy, skewness 𝐽 0 , incompressibility 𝐾 0 of symmetric nuclear matter, and the magnitude 𝐸 sym ⁡(𝜌 0 ) of symmetry energy at the saturation density 𝜌 0 of nuclear matter.

Bayesian methods↗

Prediction of O and OH Adsorption on Transition Metal Oxide Surfaces from Bulk Descriptors

In the search for stable and active catalysts, density functional theory and machine learning (ML) based models can accelerate the screening of materials. While stability is conveniently addressed on the bulk level of computation, the modelling of catalytic activity requires expensive surface simulations. Here, in this work, we develop models for the surface adsorption energy of O and OH intermediates across a consistent and extensive dataset of pure transition metal oxide surfaces. We show that adsorption energies across metal oxidation states of +2 to +6 are well captured from the metal-oxygen bond strength extracted from the bulk level calculation. Specifically, we calculate the integrated crystal orbital Hamiltonian population (ICOHP) of the metal-oxygen bond in the bulk oxide and employ a simple normalization scheme to obtain a strong correlation with adsorption energetics. By combining our ICOHP descriptor with non DFT features in a Gaussian Process regression (GPR) model, we achieve high model accuracy with mean absolute errors of 0.166 and 0.219 eV for OH and O adsorption, respectively. By targeting the O-OH adsorption energy difference with our GPR model, we predict the the oxygen evolution reaction (OER) activity from bulk descriptors only. Furthermore, we utilize the strong correlation between the COHP and metal oxygen bond lengths to rapidly predict adsorption energetics and catalytic activity from the optimized bulk geometry. Our approach can enable an efficient search for active catalysts by eliminating the need for surface calculations in the initial screening phase.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Reliability of the Danish Aerospace Corporation Portable Pulmonary Function System

Metabolic gas analysis is a critical component of investigations that measure cardio-pulmonary exercise responses during and after long-duration spaceflight. The primary purpose of the current study was to determine the reliability and intra-subject repeatability of a metabolic gas analysis device, the Portable Pulmonary Function System (PPFS), designed for use on the International Space Station (ISS). The second objective of this study was to directly compare PPFS measurements of expired oxygen and carbon dioxide (FEO2 and FECO2) to values obtained from a well-validated clinical metabolic gas analysis system (ParvoMedics TrueOne (c) [PM]). Eight subjects performed four peak cycle tests to maximal exertion. The first test was used to prescribe work rates for the subsequent test sessions. Metabolic gas analysis for this test was performed by the PM, but samples of FEO2 and FECO2 also were simultaneously collected for analysis by the PPFS. Subjects then performed three additional peak cycle tests, consisting of three 5-min stages designed to elicit 25%, 50%, and 75% maximal oxygen consumption (VO2max) followed by stepwise increases of 25 W/min until subjects reached volitional exhaustion. Metabolic gas analysis was performed using the PPFS for these tests. Intraclass correlation coefficients (ICC), within-subject standard deviations (WS SD), and coefficients of variation (CV%) were calculated for the repeated exercise tests. Mixed model regression analysis was used to compare paired FEO2 and FECO2 values obtained from the PPFS and the PM during the initial test. The ICC values for oxygen consumption (VO2), carbon dioxide production (VCO2), and ventilation (VE) indicate that the PPFS is highly reliable (0.79 to 0.99) for all exercise levels tested; however, ICCs for respiratory exchange ratio (RER) were low ( 0.11 - 0.51), indicating poor agreement between trials during submaximal and maximal exercise. Overall, CVs ranged from 1.6% to 6.7% for all measurements, a finding consistent with reported values that were obtained using other metabolic gas analysis techniques. The PPFS and PM produced comparable FEO2 data; however, there was less agreement between measures of FECO2 obtained from the two devices, particularly at lower CO2 concentrations. The PPFS appears, in practically all respects, to yield highly reliable metabolic gas analysis data. Lower reliability of RER measurements reported in the literature and likely is not a function of the PPFS device. Further examination of PPFS CO2 data is warranted to better understand the limitations of these PPFS measurements. Overall, the PPFS when used for repeated measures of cardio-pulmonary exercise should provide accurate and reliable data for studies of human adaptation to spaceflight.

Portable Pulmonary Function System (PPFS)↗

Factors linked to participant attrition in a longitudinal occupational health surveillance program

For occupational medical screening programs focused on long-term health surveillance, participant attrition is a significant barrier to success. Here we investigate demographic, medical history, and clinical data from National Supplemental Screening Program (NSSP) examinees for association with likelihood of return for a second exam (rescreening). A total of 15,733 individuals completed at least one NSSP exam before December 31, 2016; of those, 4832 also completed a second exam on or before December 31, 2019. Stepwise logistic regression models were used to identify variables associated with whether a participant was rescreened in the NSSP. Individuals were less likely to return for rescreening if they had a history of any cancer; cardiovascular problems; diabetes or kidney disease; or if they used insulin. Age at time of first exam and job site category significantly influenced likelihood of return. Workers categorized as “guests” were more likely to return. Participants were less likely to return if they had an abnormal urinalysis, abnormal pulmonary function, pneumoconiosis, aortic atherosclerosis, or hearing loss at their initial exam. Participants who received a chest X-ray at their initial screening were more likely to return. The presence of health problems is strongly linked to screening program attrition. Participants who are older at the time of their initial screening exam are less likely to return. The discovery of several strong demographic, medical, and job associations reveals the importance for medical screening programs to understand and address factors that influence participant retention and, consequently, the effectiveness of long-term health surveillance activities.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Blood cadmium levels are associated with a decline in lung function in males

Background: Cadmium exposure was found to cause a decline in lung function among the general population, but these findings were limited to smokers and gender differences were not explored. Objectives: To examine the relationship between cadmium and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) according to gender and smoking status in Korea. Methods: Cross-sectional data from the Korean National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey from 2008 to 2011 were analyzed. COPD was defined by a pre-bronchodilator forced expiratory volume in 1 s divided by forced vital capacity of <0.70. A logistic regression model was used to elucidate the association between blood cadmium levels and COPD according to gender and smoking status. Results: Among 3861 eligible participants, 3622 were included in the analysis. The prevalence of COPD demonstrated an increasing trend in males (P for trend<0.001), but not in females (P for trend=0.67). After adjusting for covariates, a higher blood cadmium level, but within the normal range, was associated with COPD in males, including those who had never-smoked (P for trend <0.001 and P for trend=0.008). However, a higher blood cadmium level was not significantly associated with COPD in females, including those who had never smoked (P for trend=0.39 and P for trend=0.43). Conclusions: A higher blood cadmium level, within the normal range, was associated with COPD in males, including those who had never smoked. However, there was no significant association between blood cadmium levels and COPD in females. - Highlights: • Elevated blood cadmium level is associated with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease in male. • This association can be seen even in never smoked male. • However, this association is present only in male, but not in female.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Increasing Radiation Therapy Dose Is Associated With Improved Survival in Patients Undergoing Stereotactic Body Radiation Therapy for Stage I Non–Small-Cell Lung Cancer

Purpose: To determine the comparative effectiveness of different stereotactic body radiation therapy (SBRT) dosing regimens for early-stage non–small-cell lung cancer, using a large national database, focusing on the relative impact of dose as a function of tumor stage. Methods and Materials: The study included patients in the National Cancer Database from 2003 to 2006 with T1-T2N0M0 inoperable lung cancer (n=498). The biologically effective dose (BED) was calculated according to the linear quadratic formula using an α/β ratio of 10. High versus lower-dose (HD vs LD) SBRT was defined as a calculated BED above or below 150 Gy. Overall survival was estimated using Kaplan-Meier methods and Cox proportional hazard regression. Results: The 5 most common dose fractionation schemes (percentage of cohort) used were 20 Gy × 3 (34%), 12 Gy × 4 (16%), 18 Gy × 3 (10%), 15 Gy × 3 (10%), and 16 Gy × 3 (4%). The median calculated BED was 150 Gy (interquartile range 106-166 Gy). The 3-year overall survival (OS) for patients who received HD versus LD was 55% versus 46% (log–rank P=.03). On subset analysis of the T1 cohort there was no association between calculated BED and 3-year OS (61% vs 60% with HD vs LD, P=.9). Among the T2 cohort, patients receiving HD experienced superior 3-year OS (37% vs 24%, P=.01). On multivariable analysis, factors independently prognostic for mortality were female gender (hazard ratio [HR] 0.76, P=.01), T2 tumor (HR 1.99, P=.0001), and HD (HR 0.68, P=.001). Conclusions: This comparative effectiveness analysis of SBRT dose for patients with stage I non–small-cell lung cancer suggests that higher doses (>150 Gy BED) are associated with a significant survival benefit in patients with T2 tumors.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗

Consolidation of fatigue and fatigue-crack-propagation data for design use

Analytical methods developed for consolidation of fatigue and fatigue-crack-propagation data for use in design of metallic aerospace structural components are evaluated. A comprehensive file of data on 2024 and 7075 aluminums, Ti-6Al-4V alloy, and 300M steel was established by obtaining information from both published literature and reports furnished by aerospace companies. Analyses are restricted to information obtained from constant-amplitude load or strain cycling of specimens in air at room temperature. Both fatigue and fatigue-crack-propagation data are analyzed on a statistical basis using a least-squares regression approach. For fatigue, an equivalent strain parameter is used to account for mean stress or stress ratio effects and is treated as the independent variable; cyclic fatigue life is considered to be the dependent variable. An effective stress-intensity factor is used to account for the effect of load ratio on fatigue-crack-propagation and treated as the independent variable. In this latter case, crack-growth rate is considered to be the dependent variable. A two term power function is used to relate equivalent strain to fatigue life, and an arc-hyperbolic-tangent function is used to relate effective stress intensity to crack-growth rate.

Rice, R. C.↗

Relationship of physiography and snow area to stream discharge

The author has identified the following significant results. A comparison of snowmelt runoff models shows that the accuracy of the Tangborn model and regression models is greater if the test data falls within the range of calibration than if the test data lies outside the range of calibration data. The regression models are significantly more accurate for forecasts of 60 days or more than for shorter prediction periods. The Tangborn model is more accurate for forecasts of 90 days or more than for shorter prediction periods. The Martinec model is more accurate for forecasts of one or two days than for periods of 3,5,10, or 15 days. Accuracy of the long-term models seems to be independent of forecast data. The sufficiency of the calibration data base is a function not only of the number of years of record but also of the accuracy with which the calibration years represent the total population of data years. Twelve years appears to be a sufficient length of record for each of the models considered, as long as the twelve years are representative of the population.

Mccuen, R. H.↗

Uncertainty Management for Diagnostics and Prognostics of Batteries using Bayesian Techniques

Uncertainty management has always been the key hurdle faced by diagnostics and prognostics algorithms. A Bayesian treatment of this problem provides an elegant and theoretically sound approach to the modern Condition- Based Maintenance (CBM)/Prognostic Health Management (PHM) paradigm. The application of the Bayesian techniques to regression and classification in the form of Relevance Vector Machine (RVM), and to state estimation as in Particle Filters (PF), provides a powerful tool to integrate the diagnosis and prognosis of battery health. The RVM, which is a Bayesian treatment of the Support Vector Machine (SVM), is used for model identification, while the PF framework uses the learnt model, statistical estimates of noise and anticipated operational conditions to provide estimates of remaining useful life (RUL) in the form of a probability density function (PDF). This type of prognostics generates a significant value addition to the management of any operation involving electrical systems.

Saha, Bhaskar↗

The concentration-response between long-term PM2.5 exposure and mortality; A meta-regression approach

Highlights: • PM2.5-mortality effect is significant below 10 μg/m3 and above 20 μg/m3. • Better exposure estimates result in higher effect size estimates. • More control for SES results in higher effect size estimates. • A nonlinear dose-response is seen. • Effects at higher exposures are larger than predicted by the IER/GBD. Long-term exposure to ambient fine particulate matter (≤ 2.5 μg/m{sup 3} in aerodynamic diameter; PM{sub 2.5}) is significantly associated with increased risk of premature mortality. Our goal was to provide an updated meta-analysis of all-cause and cause-specific mortality associated with exposure to PM{sub 2.5} and to better estimate the risk of death as a function of air pollution levels.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Environmental impacts of dam reservoir filling in the East Amazon

Mitigating the environmental impacts caused by hydroelectric dams is a worldwide challenge. The aquatic ecosystem is the most impacted during the reservoir filling phase, yet biogeochemical dynamics at this stage are not well-studied. Here we evaluate water quality and hydraulic parameters in the Araguari River (Amapá/Brazil) during the filling of the Ferreira Gomes Hydroelectric Power Plant reservoir (UHEFG). Five field campaigns were performed from July 2014 to August 2015 across nine sample sites within the reservoir (P1, P2, …P9) and only one downstream (P10). The following key variables were monitored: Trophic State Index (TSI), Total Coliforms (TC), E. coli (EC) and Chlorophyll-a (Chl-a), along with physical and chemical variables (Temperature, Suspended Solids, Total Dissolved Solids, Electrical Conductivity, Turbidity, Color, pH, DO, Al3+, NH4+, Cl-, Mg1+, Ca2+, total Phosphorous, NH3, NO3-, and SO42). Besides that, hydraulic-operational variables were also investigated: inflows (Qa), outflows (Qd), and variation in reservoir volume (Vol%). Multiple Regression Analyses showed that the key parameters were both significantly influenced by physio-chemical and hydraulic variables (0.46=R2adj=0.99, p<0.05). The DO showed significant spatial variation, being influenced by the turbulence from the Coaracy Nunes dam (UHECN) upstream and the UHEFG dam downstream. The Vol% influenced the TSI, which ranged from oligotrophic to hypertrophic and eventually stabilized at mesotrophic. The levels of TSI, TC, and Chl-a decreased and the level of E. coli increased (p<0.05) as a function of Vol%. A Cluster Analysis showed the formation of three spatial groups - two inside the reservoir and one downstream (P10). This suggests that in the rainy season or transition season, the hydraulic residence time in the reservoir is very low (16 = thr = 36 h) when hydrodynamic processes are dominant. In the dry season (thr ˜ 1 month), biogeochemical and hydrodynamic processes occur at similar time scales to the nutrient and microbial abundance. These results confirm the hypothesis that the filling phase has significant impacts on the key parameters of the water quality (p<0.05). We conclude that the filling phase of the UHEFG reservoir generated significant environmental impacts, which have repercussions even retrospectively.

Amazon, biogeochemistry, ecosystem, extreme event,↗

Correlating downward flame spread rates for thick fuel beds

Flame spread rates are presented for polymethylmethacrylate fuel beds as a function of gravitational acceleration and ambient pressure and oxygen concentration. The data are correlated by plotting a dimensionless spread rate that is a measure of the heat transferred forward of the flame, required to sustain the flame, compared to the maximum possible forward heat transfer against a Damkoehler number. The latter parameter indicates the approach of the flame to its maximum temperature, where the maximum possible forward heat transfer occurs, such that the dimensionless spread rate approaches unity at large Damkoehler number. Surface regression effects on the flame spread process are incorporated into the dimensionless spread rate, and the final correlation is independent of bed thickness.

Altenkirch, R. A.↗

Hedonic Price Estimates of Lake Water Quality: Valued Attribute, Instrumental Variables, and Ecological-Economic Benefits

We estimate the effect of lake water quality on residential housing prices using cross-sectional data on water clarity from 113 lakes across the United States. An instrumental-variables approach is developed to address potential endogeneity bias in the water-clarity variable. Three lake-based physical variables serve as instrumental variables: total nitrogen concentration in lake water, total phosphorus concentration in lake water, and water temperature near the lake surface. The econometric results include three methodological findings: the instruments are valid and strong; the ordinary-least-squares estimate of the coefficient on the water-clarity variable is unbiased; and water clarity is the attribute of water quality valued in the housing market. The estimated water-clarity effect shows that a one-tenth of a meter change in water clarity leads to a one-percent change in housing price, or an elasticity of 0.20 at mean clarity. Coupling this effect with estimates of an ecological production function, a lake-specific benefit index is developed that shows the effect on housing values of bringing lakes into compliance with the US Environmental Protection Agency's regional recommendations for phosphorous concentration in lake waters.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Deep Neural Networks are Adaptive to Function Regularity and Data Distribution in Approximation and Estimation

Deep learning has exhibited remarkable results across diverse areas. To understand its success, substantial research has been directed towards its theoretical foundations. Nev- ertheless, the majority of these studies examine how well deep neural networks can model functions with uniform regularities. In this paper, we explore a different angle: how deep neural networks can adapt to varying degrees of smoothness in functions and nonuni- form data distributions across different locations and scales. More precisely, we focus on a broad class of functions defined by nonlinear tree-based approximation methods. This class encompasses a range of function types, such as functions with uniform regularities and discontinuous functions. We develop nonparametric approximation and estimation theories for this class using deep ReLU networks. Our results show that deep neural networks are adaptive to the nonuniform smoothness of functions and nonuniform data distributions at different locations and scales. We apply our results to several function classes, and derive the corresponding approximation and generalization errors. The validity of our results is demonstrated through numerical experiments.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

A Spectral Approach for the Design of Experiments: Design, Analysis and Algorithms

This paper proposes a new approach to construct high quality space-filling sample designs. First, we propose a novel technique to quantify the space-filling property and optimally trade-off uniformity and randomness in sample designs in arbitrary dimensions. Second, we connect the proposed metric (defined in the spatial domain) to the quality metric of the design performance (defined in the spectral domain). This connection serves as an analytic framework for evaluating the qualitative properties of space-filling designs in general. Using the theoretical insights provided by this spatial-spectral analysis, we derive the notion of optimal space-filling designs, which we refer to as space-filling spectral designs. Third, we propose an efficient estimator to evaluate the space-filling properties of sample designs in arbitrary dimensions and use it to develop an optimization framework for generating high quality space-filling designs. Finally, we carry out a detailed performance comparison on two different applications in varying dimensions: a) image reconstruction and b) surrogate modeling for several benchmark optimization functions and a physics simulation code for inertial confinement fusion (ICF). Our results clearly evidence the superiority of the proposed space-filling designs over existing approaches, particularly in high dimensions.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

The empirical accuracy of uncertain inference models

Uncertainty is a pervasive feature of the domains in which expert systems are designed to function. Research design to test uncertain inference methods for accuracy and robustness, in accordance with standard engineering practice is reviewed. Several studies were conducted to assess how well various methods perform on problems constructed so that correct answers are known, and to find out what underlying features of a problem cause strong or weak performance. For each method studied, situations were identified in which performance deteriorates dramatically. Over a broad range of problems, some well known methods do only about as well as a simple linear regression model, and often much worse than a simple independence probability model. The results indicate that some commercially available expert system shells should be used with caution, because the uncertain inference models that they implement can yield rather inaccurate results.

Vaughan, David S.↗

Probabilistic Material Strength Degradation Model for Inconel 718 Components Subjected to High Temperature, Mechanical Fatigue, Creep and Thermal Fatigue Effects

This thesis presents the on-going development of methodology for a probabilistic material strength degradation model. The probabilistic model, in the form of a postulated randomized multifactor equation, provides for quantification of uncertainty in the lifetime material strength of aerospace propulsion system components subjected to a number of diverse random effects. This model is embodied in the computer program entitled PROMISS, which can include up to eighteen different effects. Presently, the model includes four effects that typically reduce lifetime strength: high temperature, mechanical fatigue, creep, and thermal fatigue. Statistical analysis was conducted on experimental Inconel 718 data obtained from the open literature. This analysis provided regression parameters for use as the model's empirical material constants, thus calibrating the model specifically for Inconel 718. Model calibration was carried out for four variables, namely, high temperature, mechanical fatigue, creep, and thermal fatigue. Methodology to estimate standard deviations of these material constants for input into the probabilistic material strength model was developed. Using the current version of PROMISS, entitled PROMISS93, a sensitivity study for the combined effects of mechanical fatigue, creep, and thermal fatigue was performed. Results, in the form of cumulative distribution functions, illustrated the sensitivity of lifetime strength to any current value of an effect. In addition, verification studies comparing a combination of mechanical fatigue and high temperature effects by model to the combination by experiment were conducted. Thus, for Inconel 718, the basic model assumption of independence between effects was evaluated. Results from this limited verification study strongly supported this assumption.

Bast, Callie Corinne Scheidt↗