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At least 1,009 records · Page 56

Antarctic NAT PSC Belt of June 2003: Observational Validation of the Mountain Wave Seeding Hypothesis

Satellite observations of polar stratospheric clouds (PSCs) over Antarctica in June 2003 revealed small nitric acid trihydrate (NAT) particles forming suddenly along the vortex edge. Models suggest the trigger was mountain waves over the Antarctic Peninsula (AP) forming ice for NAT nucleation. We test this hypothesis by analyzing perturbations in stratospheric radiances from the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS). AIRS data show mountain waves over the AP on 10-14 June, with no resolved wave activity before or after. Peak wave temperature amplitudes derived from independent 40 hPa channels all return values of 10-12 K, in agreement with values used to model this NAT event. These observations support a NAT wake from a small region of mountain wave activity over the AP as the source of this circumpolar NAT outbreak.

PSC (POLAR STRATOSPHERIC CLOUDS)↗

KINEROS2-AGWA: Model Use, Calibration, and Validation

KINEROS (KINematic runoff and EROSion) originated in the 1960s as a distributed event-based model that conceptualizes a watershed as a cascade of overland flow model elements that flow into trapezoidal channel model elements. KINEROS was one of the first widely available watershed models that interactively coupled a finite difference approximation of the kinematic overland flow equations to a physically based infiltration model. Development and improvement of KINEROS continued from the 1960s on a variety of projects for a range of purposes, which has resulted in a suite of KINEROS-based modeling tools. This article focuses on KINEROS2 (K2), a spatially distributed, event-based watershed rainfall-runoff and erosion model, and the companion ArcGIS-based Automated Geospatial Watershed Assessment (AGWA) tool. AGWA automates the time-consuming tasks of watershed delineation into distributed model elements and initial parameterization of these elements using commonly available, national GIS data layers. A variety of approaches have been used to calibrate and validate K2 successfully across a relatively broad range of applications (e.g., urbanization, pre- and post-fire, hillslope erosion, erosion from roads, runoff and recharge, and manure transport). The case studies presented in this article (1) compare lumped to stepwise calibration and validation of runoff and sediment at plot, hillslope, and small watershed scales; and (2) demonstrate an uncalibrated application to address relative change in watershed response to wildfire.

Erosion↗

Crash Testing and Simulation of a Cessna 172 Aircraft: Pitch Down Impact Onto Soft Soil

During the summer of 2015, NASA Langley Research Center conducted three full-scale crash tests of Cessna 172 (C-172) aircraft at the NASA Langley Landing and Impact Research (LandIR) Facility. The first test represented a flare-to-stall emergency or hard landing onto a rigid surface. The second test, which is the focus of this paper, represented a controlled-flight-into-terrain (CFIT) with a nose-down pitch attitude of the aircraft, which impacted onto soft soil. The third test, also conducted onto soil, represented a CFIT with a nose-up pitch attitude of the aircraft, which resulted in a tail strike condition. These three crash tests were performed for the purpose of evaluating the performance of Emergency Locator Transmitters (ELTs) and to generate impact test data for model validation. LS-DYNA finite element models were generated to simulate the three test conditions. This paper describes the model development and presents test-analysis comparisons of acceleration and velocity time-histories, as well as a comparison of the time sequence of events for Test 2 onto soft soil.

Fasanella, Edwin L.↗

Quantifying the Storm Time Thermospheric Neutral Density Variations Using Model and Observations

Accurate determination of thermospheric neutral density holds crucial importance for satellited rag calculations. The problem is twofold and involves the correct estimation of the quiet time climatology and storm time variations. In this work, neutral density estimations from two empirical and threephysics based models of the ionosphere thermosphere are compared with the neutral densities along the Challenging MicroSatellite Payload satellite track for six geomagnetic storms. Storm time variations are extracted from neutral density by (1) subtracting the mean difference between model and observation (bias),(2) setting climatological variations to zero, and (3) multiplying model data with the quiet time ratio between the model and observation. Several metrics are employed to evaluate the model performances. We find that the removal of bias or climatology reveals actual performance of the model in simulating the storm time variations. When bias is removed, depending on event and model, storm time errors in neutral density can decrease by an amount of 113% or can increase by an amount of 12% with respect to error in models with quiet time bias. It is shown that using only average and maximum values of neutral density to determine the model performances can be misleading since a model can estimate the averages fairly well but may not capture the maximum value or vice versa. Since each of the metrics used for determining model performances provides different aspects of the error, among these, we suggest employing mean absolute error, prediction efficiency, and normalized root mean square error together as a standard set ofmetrics for the neutral density.

Eyiguler, E. Ceren Kalafatoglu↗

Potentially Underestimated Gas Flaring Activities—A New Approach to Detect Combustion Using Machine Learning and NASA’s Black Marble Product Suite

Monitoring changes in greenhouse gas (GHG) emission is critical for assessing climate mitigation efforts towards the Paris Agreement goal. A crucial aspect of science-based GHG monitoring is to provide objective information for quality assurance and uncertainty assessment of the reported emissions. Emission estimates from combustion events (gas flaring and biomass burning) are often calculated based on activity data (AD) from satellite observations, such as those detected from the visible infrared imaging radiometer suite (VIIRS) onboard the Suomi-NPP and NOAA-20 satellites. These estimates are often incorporated into carbon models for calculating emissions and removals. Consequently, errors and uncertainties associated with AD propagate into these models and impact emission estimates. Deriving uncertainty of AD is therefore crucial for transparency of emission estimates but remains a challenge due to the lack of evaluation data or alternate estimates. This work proposes a new approach using machine learning (ML) for combustion detection from NASA's Black Marble product suite and explores the assessment of potential uncertainties through comparison with existing detections. We jointly characterize combustion using thermal and light emission signals, with the latter improving detection of probable weaker combustion with less distinct thermal signatures. Being methodologically independent, the differences in ML-derived estimates with existing approaches can indicate the potential uncertainties in detection. The approach was applied to detect gas flares over the Eagle Ford Shale, Texas. We analyzed the spatio-temporal variations in detections and found that approximately 79.04% and 72.14% of the light emission-based detections are missed by ML-derived detections from VIIRS thermal bands and existing datasets, respectively. This improvement in combustion detection and scope for uncertainty assessment is essential for comprehensive monitoring of resulting emissions and we discuss the steps for extending this globally.

gas flaring↗

Dynamics of Ring Current and Electric Fields in the Inner Magnetosphere During Disturbed Periods: CRCM-BATS-R-US Coupled Model

We present simulation results from a one-way coupled global MHD model (Block-Adaptive-Tree Solar-Wind Roe-Type Upwind Scheme, BATS-R-US) and kinetic ring current models (Comprehensive Ring Current Model, CRCM, and Fok Ring Current, FokRC). The BATS-R-US provides the CRCM/FokRC with magnetic field information and plasma density/temperature at the polar CRCM/FokRC boundary. The CRCM uses an electric potential from the BATS-R-US ionospheric solver at the polar CRCM boundary in order to calculate the electric field pattern consistent with the CRCM pressure distribution. The FokRC electric field potential is taken from BATS-R-US ionospheric solver everywhere in the modeled region, and the effect of Region II currents is neglected. We show that for an idealized case with southward-northward-southward Bz IMF turning, CRCM-BATS-R-US reproduces well known features of inner magnetosphere electrodynamics: strong/weak convection under the southward/northward Bz; electric field shielding/overshielding/penetration effects; an injection during the substorm development; Subauroral Ion Drift or Polarization Jet (SAID/PJ) signature in the dusk sector. Furthermore, we find for the idealized case that SAID/PJ forms during the substorm growth phase, and that substorm injection has its own structure of field-aligned currents which resembles a substorm current wedge. For an actual event (12 August 2000 storm), we calculate ENA emissions and compare with Imager for Magnetopause-to-Aurora Global Exploration/High Energy Neutral Atom data. The CRCM-BATS-R-US reproduces both the global morphology of ring current and the fine structure of ring current injection. The FokRC-BATS-R-US shows the effect of a realistic description of Region II currents in ring current-MHD coupled models.

Buzulukova, N.↗

Global Landslide Forecasting System for Hazard Assessment and Situational Awareness

Landslides triggered by extreme rainfall can be devastating, resulting in loss of life, property, and infrastructure. Landslide forecasting systems provide an opportunity to build awareness of potential hazards and ultimately take preemptive measures. There is currently a dearth of forecasting systems that provide regional or global coverage, but these systems can offer important situational awareness in data-sparse, ungauged, or large-scale catchments. A near global, primarily satellite-based system calledthe Landslide Hazard Assessment for Situational Awareness (LHASA) provides near real-time estimates of potential landslide hazard and exposure around the world. In this work, a precipitation forecast module is introduced into LHASA to complement the existing LHASA framework and provide an estimate of landslide hazard up to three days in advanceat 1km resolution. The model-based Goddard Earth Observing System-Forward Processing (GEOS-FP) precipitation forecast product is used as the forcing input for the model in place of the satellite-based Integrated Multi-satellitE Retrievals for Global Precipitation Mission product. Soil moisture and snow depth from the GEOS-FP assimilated product are also incorporated. The study period January 2020–January 2021 is usedto test the model performance against the LHASA near real-time estimates at multiple spatiotemporal scales. Validation of the model is carried out using a collection of rainfall-triggered landslide inventories from around the world as case studies to demonstrate the potential utility and limitations of this system.The rescaling of the GEOS-FP precipitation product is a critical step in incorporating the forecasted precipitation data within LHASA-Forecast (LHASA-F). Combining different streams of forecasted data within the LHASA-F framework shows promise, particularly for larger events at the 1-and 2-day lead time for events. Results indicate that for the case studies evaluated, the LHASA-F is generally able to resolve major landslide events triggered by extreme rainfall, such as from tropical cyclones. The analysis shows that landslide forecast outputs may be represented differently depending on the user’s needs. This framework serves as a first milestone in providing a global predictive view of landslide hazard.

Landslide forecasting system↗

The Application of Remote Sensing and Machine Learning to Improve Early Warning Systems for Harmful Algal Events in the Highland Lake Chain, TX

Beginning in 2019, harmful algal events have caused canine deaths in both Lady Bird Lake and Lake Travis located near Austin, Texas. These two reservoirs are part of the larger Highland Lakes chain, managed by the City of Austin Department of Watershed Protection (COA DWP) and the Lower Colorado River Authority (LCRA), which fulfill municipal, commercial, and agricultural water demands. Given the recent increase in favorable environmental conditions for algal events in central Texas, NASA DEVELOP partnered with LCRA and COA DWP to improve monitoring and early detection of algal events, utilizing satellite remote sensing and machine learning. Spatially and temporally varied chlorophyll a concentrations, cyanobacteria detections, turbidity, and water surface temperature products are used as environmental proxies. Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager (OLI) and the Sentinel-2 MultiSpectral Instrument (MSI) data were used to provide a combined revisit time of up to ~3 days and < 30 m per pixel products. Chlorophyll a concentrations were estimated using a pre-trained Mixture Density Network, and cyanobacteria detection was accomplished using the Broad Wavelength Algae Index, which can differentiate algal blooms from algal proliferations (mats). In situ data were used to validate remotely sensed measurements and quantify uncertainties. Preliminary results show a good fit between the modeled output and in situ observations, suggesting that remote sensing data can be used to retrieve biogeochemical properties and/or inherent optical properties (IOPs) of water columns in these inland human-made lakes. Uncertainties were introduced from the sensitivity to atmospheric correction, inherent mismatch between satellite and sampling data, and a relatively lower signal-to-noise ratio over water. The resulting products enable near real-time monitoring of environmental proxies relevant to algal event presence in the Highland Lakes chain, and will ultimately support water management, decision making, and risk communication.

Shuyu Chang↗

An Integrated Gate Turnaround Management Concept Leveraging Big Data Analytics for NAS Performance Improvements

"Gate Turnaround" plays a key role in the National Air Space (NAS) gate-to-gate performance by receiving aircraft when they reach their destination airport, and delivering aircraft into the NAS upon departing from the gate and subsequent takeoff. The time spent at the gate in meeting the planned departure time is influenced by many factors and often with considerable uncertainties. Uncertainties such as weather, early or late arrivals, disembarking and boarding passengers, unloading/reloading cargo, aircraft logistics/maintenance services and ground handling, traffic in ramp and movement areas for taxi-in and taxi-out, and departure queue management for takeoff are likely encountered on the daily basis. The Integrated Gate Turnaround Management (IGTM) concept is leveraging relevant historical data to support optimization of the gate operations, which include arrival, at the gate, departure based on constraints (e.g., available gates at the arrival, ground crew and equipment for the gate turnaround, and over capacity demand upon departure), and collaborative decision-making. The IGTM concept provides effective information services and decision tools to the stakeholders, such as airline dispatchers, gate agents, airport operators, ramp controllers, and air traffic control (ATC) traffic managers and ground controllers to mitigate uncertainties arising from both nominal and off-nominal airport gate operations. IGTM will provide NAS stakeholders customized decision making tools through a User Interface (UI) by leveraging historical data (Big Data), net-enabled Air Traffic Management (ATM) live data, and analytics according to dependencies among NAS parameters for the stakeholders to manage and optimize the NAS performance in the gate turnaround domain. The application will give stakeholders predictable results based on the past and current NAS performance according to selected decision trees through the UI. The predictable results are generated based on analysis of the unique airport attributes (e.g., runway, taxiway, terminal, and gate configurations and tenants), and combined statistics from past data and live data based on a specific set of ATM concept-of-operations (ConOps) and operational parameters via systems analysis using an analytic network learning model. The IGTM tool will then bound the uncertainties that arise from nominal and off-nominal operational conditions with direct assessment of the gate turnaround status and the impact of a certain operational decision on the NAS performance, and provide a set of recommended actions to optimize the NAS performance by allowing stakeholders to take mitigation actions to reduce uncertainty and time deviation of planned operational events. An IGTM prototype was developed at NASA Ames Simulation Laboratories (SimLabs) to demonstrate the benefits and applicability of the concept. A data network, using the System Wide Information Management (SWIM)-like messaging application using the ActiveMQ message service, was connected to the simulated data warehouse, scheduled flight plans, a fast-time airport simulator, and a graphic UI. A fast-time simulation was integrated with the data warehouse or Big Data/Analytics (BAI), scheduled flight plans from Aeronautical Operational Control AOC, IGTM Controller, and a UI via a SWIM-like data messaging network using the ActiveMQ message service, illustrated in Figure 1, to demonstrate selected use-cases showing the benefits of the IGTM concept on the NAS performance.

Efficent ATM systems↗

Simplifying NASA Earth Science Data and Information Access Through Natural Language Processing Based Data Analysis and Visualization

NASA Earth science data collected from satellites, model assimilation, airborne missions, and field campaigns, are large, complex and evolving. Such characteristics pose great challenges for end users (e.g., Earth science and applied science users, students, citizen scientists), particularly for those who are unfamiliar with NASA's EOSDIS and thus unable to access and utilize datasets effectively. For example, a novice user may simply ask: what is the total rainfall for a flooding event in my county yesterday? For an experienced user (e.g., algorithm developer), a question can be: how did my rainfall product perform, compared to ground observations, during a flooding event? Nonetheless, with rapid information technology development such as natural language processing, it is possible to develop simplified Web interfaces and back-end processing components to handle such questions and deliver answers in terms of text, data, or graphic results directly to users.In this presentation, we describe the main challenges for end users with different levels of expertise in accessing and utilizing NASA Earth science data. Surveys reveal that most non-professional users normally do not want to download and handle raw data as well as conduct heavy-duty data processing tasks. Often they just want some simple graphics or data for various purposes. To them, simple and intuitive user interfaces are sufficient because complicated ones can be difficult and time-consuming to learn. Professionals also want such interfaces to answer many questions from datasets. One solution is to develop a natural language based search box like Google and the search results can be text, data, graphics and more. Now the challenge is, with natural language processing, can we design a system to process a scientific question typed in by a user? In this presentation, we describe our plan for such a prototype. The workflow is: 1) extract needed information (e.g., variables, spatial and temporal information, processing methods, etc.) from the input, 2) process the data in the backend, and 3) deliver the results (data or graphics) to the user.

Liu, Zhong↗

Carbon Emissions from Deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon Region

A simulation model based on satellite observations of monthly vegetation greenness from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) was used to estimate monthly carbon fluxes in terrestrial ecosystems of Brazilian Amazon and Cerrado regions over the period 2000-2002. The NASA-CASA (Carnegie Ames Stanford Approach) model estimates of annual forest production were used for the first time as the basis to generate a prediction for the standing pool of carbon in above-ground biomass (AGB; gC/sq m) for forested areas of the Brazilian Amazon region. Plot-level measurements of the residence time of carbon in wood in Amazon forest from Malhi et al. (2006) were interpolated by inverse distance weighting algorithms and used with CASA to generate a new regional map of AGB. Data from the Brazilian PRODES (Estimativa do Desflorestamento da Amazonia) project were used to map deforested areas. Results show that net primary production (NPP) sinks for carbon varied between 4.25 Pg C/yr (1 Pg=10(exp 15)g) and 4.34 Pg C for the region and were highest across the eastern and northern Amazon areas, whereas deforestation sources of CO2 flux from decomposition of residual woody debris were higher and less seasonal in the central Amazon than in the eastern and southern areas. Increased woody debris from past deforestation events was predicted to alter the net ecosystem carbon balance of the Amazon region to generate annual CO2 source fluxes at least two times higher than previously predicted by CASA modeling studies. Variations in climate, land cover, and forest burning were predicted to release carbon at rates of 0.5 to 1 Pg C/yr from the Brazilian Amazon. When direct deforestation emissions of CO2 from forest burning of between 0.2 and 0.6 Pg C/yr in the Legal Amazon are overlooked in regional budgets, the year-to-year variations in this net biome flux may appear to be large, whereas our model results implies net biome fluxes had actually been relatively consistent from year to year during the period 2000-2002. This is the first study to use MODIS data to model all carbon pools (wood, leaf, root) dynamically in simulations of Amazon forest deforestation from clearing and burning of all kinds.

Potter, C.↗

Space Weathering Investigations Enabled by NASA's Virtual Heliophysical Observatories

Structural and chemical impact of the heliospheric space environment on exposed planetary surfaces and interplanetary dust grains may be generally defined as space weathering . In the inner solar system, from the asteroid belt inwards towards the Sun, the surface regolith structures of airless bodies are primarily determined by cumulative meteoritic impacts over billions of years, but the molecular composition to meters in depth can be substantially modified by irradiation effects. Plasma ions at eV to keV energies may both erode uppermost surfaces by sputtering, and implant or locally produce exogenic material, e.g. He-3 and H2O, while more energetic ions drive molecular change through electronic ionization. Galactic cosmic ray ions and more energetic solar ions can impact chemistry to meters in depth. High energy cosmic ray interactions produce showers of secondary particles and energetic photons that present hazards for robotic and human exploration missions but also enable detection of potentially useable resources such as water ice, oxygen, and many other elements. Surface sputtering also makes ejected elemental and molecular species accessible for in-situ compositional analysis by spacecraft with ion and neutral mass spectrometers. Modeling of relative impacts for these various space weathering processes requires knowledge of the incident species-resolved ion flux spectra at plasma to cosmic ray energies and as integrated over varying time scales. Although the main drivers for investigations of these processes come from NASA's planetary science and human exploration programs, the NASA heliophysics program provides the requisite data measurement and modeling resources to enable specification of the field & plasma and energetic particle irradiation environments for application to space weather and surface weathering investigations. The Virtual Heliospheric Observatory (VHO), Virtual Energetic Particle Observatory (VEPO), Lunar Solar Origins Exploration (LunaSOX), and Space Physics Data Facility (SPDF) services now provide a wide range of inner heliospheric spacecraft data that can be applied to space weathering of potential exploration destinations including the Moon, asteroids, and the moons of Mars, as well to radiation hazard assessment for the spacecraft and human explorers. For example, the new VEPO service for time-averaging of multi-source ion flux spectra enables the specification of composite flux spectra from a variety of ongoing and legacy missions for applications to surface interaction modeling. Apollo to Artemis data resources of LunaSOX enable specific space weathering investigations for the Moon, while VHO more generally covers the space field and plasma environments of the inner and outer solar system from the sunward-most perihelia of the twin Helios spacecraft to the ongoing heliosheath passages of the twin Voyagers. Composite multi-source spectra from VEPO can also be applied to the continuing compilation of accumulated 1-AU fluence spectra, mostly contributed by solar wind plasma and energetic particle events, for determination of time-averaged particle compositional and kinetic energy output from the Sun and for modeling of long-term irradiation impacts on planetary surfaces.

Cooper, John F.↗

Outer heliospheric radio emissions. II - Foreshock source models

Observations of LF radio emissions in the range 2-3 kHz by the Voyager spacecraft during the intervals 1983-1987 and 1989 to the present while at heliocentric distances greater than 11 AU are reported. New analyses of the wave data are presented, and the characteristics of the radiation are reviewed and discussed. Two classes of events are distinguished: transient events with varying starting frequencies that drift upward in frequency and a relatively continuous component that remains near 2 kHz. Evidence for multiple transient sources and for extension of the 2-kHz component above the 2.4-kHz interference signal is presented. The transient emissions are interpreted in terms of radiation generated at multiples of the plasma frequency when solar wind density enhancements enter one or more regions of a foreshock sunward of the inner heliospheric shock. Solar wind density enhancements by factors of 4-10 are observed. Propagation effects, the number of radiation sources, and the time variability, frequency drift, and varying starting frequencies of the transient events are discussed in terms of foreshock sources.

Cairns, Iver H.↗

Cold Fronts in Clusters of Galaxies: Observations and Modeling

Mergers of galaxy clusters -- some of the most energetic events in the Universe -- produce disturbances in hot intracluster medium, such as shocks and cold fronts, that can be used as tools to study the physics of galaxy clusters. Cold fronts may constrain viscosity and the structure and strength of the cluster magnetic fields. Combined with radio data, these observations also shed light on the production of ultrarelativistic particles that are known to coexist with the cluster thermal plasma. This talk will summarize the current X-ray observations of cluster mergers, as well as some recent radio data and high resolution hydrodynamic simulations.

Markevitch, Maxim↗

Solar particle events with anomalously large relative abundance of He-3

Energetic particle data are presented from a series of solar flares with a relative abundance of He-3 much higher than that of any previous events. The abundance of protons relative to He nuclei was significantly low in these events; not more than four H-2 and three H-3 were detected during the entire period under study, compared with 1110 He-3 nuclei. Results from these experiments are compared with data available from other investigations, and the limitations the former observations place on theoretical models to explain He-3-rich flares are discussed.

Serlemitsos, A. T.↗

High energy gamma-ray radiation above 300 keV associated with solar activity

The present state of knowledge about the production of gamma-ray lines and continuum during the impulsive phase of solar flares is reviewed. It is noted that the only definite evidence for gamma rays associated with solar flares was obtained by OSO 7 during the events of August 4 and 7, 1972. This experimental evidence is examined, and gamma-ray line emission mechanisms are discussed, particularly positron annihilation through positronium formation. It is shown that if all the data are taken into account, neither the preflare nor the postflare accumulation model for gamma-ray emission can be ruled out.

Chupp, E. L.↗

Summary of Voyager Design and Flight Loads

Estimates of flight loads for Voyager 1 and Voyager 2 are summarized and compared to the Voyager design loads obtained from the shock spectra/impedance method and to the loads obtained using space vehicle transient loads analysis. These estimates were obtained by using the measured flight accelerations at the launch vehicle/spacecraft interface as forcing functions for the Voyager mathematical model. Based on these data, an assessment of the shock spectra/impedance loads method used for Voyager is presented. The following conclusions were reached: (1) the shock spectra approach provided reasonable conservative design loads for Voyager, (2) care has to be executed to insure that all critical events are accounted for in constructing shock spectra envelopes, (3) the selection of critical events is not always obvious, especially for those flight events wherein the spacecraft dynamic characteristics are important, and (4) the success of the method is strongly dependent on the analysts' experience and judgement.

Chen, J. C.↗

Development of the Centralized Storm Information System (CSIS) for use in severe weather prediction

The centralized storm information system is now capable of ingesting and remapping radar scope presentations on a satellite projection. This can be color enhanced and superposed on other data types. Presentations from more than one radar can be composited on a single image. As with most other data sources, a simple macro establishes the loops and scheduling of the radar ingestions as well as the autodialing. There are approximately 60 NWS network 10 cm radars that can be interrogated. NSSFC forecasters have found this data source to be extremely helpful in severe weather situations. The capability to access lightning frequency data stored in a National Weather Service computer was added. Plans call for an interface with the National Meteorological Center to receive and display prognostic fields from operational computer forecast models. Programs are to be developed to plot and display locations of reported severe local storm events.

Mosher, F. R.↗