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Ionospheric calibration for single frequency altimeter measurements

This study is a preliminary analysis of the effectiveness (in terms of altimeter calibration accuracy) of various ionosphere models and the Global Positioning System (GPS) to calibrate single frequency altimeter height measurements for ionospheric path delay. In particular, the research focused on ingesting GPS Total Electron Content (TEC) data into the physical Parameterized Real-Time Ionospheric Specification Model (PRISM), which estimates the composition of the ionosphere using independent empirical and physical models and has the capability of adjusting to additional ionospheric measurements. Two types of GPS data were used to adjust the PRISM model: GPS receiver station data mapped from line-of-sight observations to the vertical at the point of interest and a grid map (generated at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory) of GPS derived TEC in a sun-fixed longitude frame. The adjusted PRISM TEC values, as well as predictions by the International Reference Ionosphere (IRI-90), a climatological (monthly mean) model of the ionosphere, were compared to TOPEX dual-frequency TEC measurements (considered as truth) for a number of TOPEX sub-satellite tracks. For a 13.6 GHz altimeter, a Total Electron Content (TEC) of 1 TECU 10(exp 16) electrons/sq m corresponds to approximately 0.218 centimeters of range delay. A maximum expected TEC (at solar maximum or during solar storms) of 10(exp 18) electrons/sq m will create 22 centimeters of range delay. Compared with the TOPEX data, the PRISM predictions were generally accurate within the TECU when the sub-satellite track of interest passed within 300 to 400 km of the GPS TEC data or when the track passed through a night-time ionosphere. If neither was the case, in particular if the track passed through a local noon ionosphere, the PRISM values differed by more than 10 TECU and by as much as 40 TECU. The IRI-90 model, with no current ability to unseat GPS data, predicted TEC to a slightly higher error of 12 TECU. The performance of PRISM is very promising for predicting TEC and will prove useful for calibrating single frequency altimeter height measurements for ionospheric path delay. When adjusted to the GPS line-of-sight data the PRISM URSI empirical model predicted TEC over a day's period to within a global error of 8.60 TECU rms during a nighttime ionosphere and 9.74 TECU rms during the day. When adjusted to the GPS derived TEC grid, the PRISM parametrized model predicted TEC to within an error of 8.47 TECU rms for a nighttime ionosphere and 12.83 TECU rms during the day. However, the grid cannot be considered globally due to the lack of sufficient numbers of GPS stations and large latitude gaps in GPS data. It is the opinion of the authors that using the PRISM model and adjusting to the global sun-fixed TEC grid regenerated with a localized weighted interpolation offers the best possibility of meeting the 10 TECU global rms (or 2 cm at 13.6 GHz) ionosphere range correction accuracy requirement of TOPEX/Poseidon and should be the subject of further study. However, it is clear that the anticipated requirement of 34 TECU global rms for TOPEX/Poseidon Follow-On (corresponding to the TOPEX/Poseidon performance) can not be met with any realizable combination of existing models and data assimilation schemes.

Schreiner, William S.↗

Measuring Image Navigation and Registration Performance at the 3-Sigma Level Using Platinum Quality Landmarks

Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) Image Navigation and Registration (INR) performance is specified at the 3- level, meaning that 99.7% of a collection of individual measurements must comply with specification thresholds. Landmarks are measured by the Replacement Product Monitor (RPM), part of the operational GOES ground system, to assess INR performance and to close the INR loop. The RPM automatically discriminates between valid and invalid measurements enabling it to run without human supervision. In general, this screening is reliable, but a small population of invalid measurements will be falsely identified as valid. Even a small population of invalid measurements can create problems when assessing performance at the 3-sigma level. This paper describes an additional layer of quality control whereby landmarks of the highest quality ("platinum") are identified by their self-consistency. The platinum screening criteria are not simple statistical outlier tests against sigma values in populations of INR errors. In-orbit INR performance metrics for GOES-12 and GOES-13 are presented using the platinum landmark methodology.

Carr, James L.↗

Cassini Orbit Determination Performance (July 2008 - December 2011)

This paper reports on the orbit determination performance for the Cassini spacecraft from July 2008 to December 2011. During this period, Cassini made 85 revolutions around Saturn and had 52 close satellite encounters. 35 of those were with the massive Titan, 13 with the small, yet interesting, Enceladus as well as 2 with Rhea and 2 with Dione. The period also includes 4 double encounters, where engineers had to plan the trajectory for two close satellite encounters within days of each other at once. Navigation performance is characterized by ephemeris errors relative to in-flight predictions. Most Titan encounters 3-dimensional results are within a 1.5 formal sigma, with a few exceptions, mostly attributable to larger maneuver execution errors. Results for almost all other satellite encounter reconstructions are less than 3 sigma from their predictions. The errors are attributable to satellite ephemerides errors and in some cases to maneuver execution errors.

navigation performance↗

The Pursuit of K: Reflections on the Current State-of-the-Art in Stress Intensity Factor Solutions for Practical Aerospace Applications

The elastic stress intensity factor (SIF, commonly denoted as K) is the foundation of practical fracture mechanics (FM) analysis for aircraft structures. This single parameter describes the first-order effects of stress magnitude and distribution as well as the geometry of both structure/component and crack. Hence, the calculation of K is often the most significant step in fatigue analysis based on FM. This presentation will provide several reflections on the current state-of-the-art in SIF solution methods used for practical aerospace applications, including a brief historical perspective, descriptions of some recent and ongoing advances, and comments on some remaining challenges. Newman and Raju made significant early contributions to practical structural analysis by developing closed-form SIF equations for surface and corner cracks in simplified geometries, often based on empirical fits of finite element (FE) solutions. Those solutions (and others like them) were sometimes revised as new analyses were conducted or limitations discovered. The foundational solutions have exhibited striking longevity, despite the relatively "coarse" FE models employed many decades ago. However, in recent years, the accumulation of different generations of solutions for the same nominal geometry has led to some confusion (which solution is correct?), and steady increases in computational capabilities have facilitated the discovery of inaccuracies in some (not all!) of the legacy solutions. Some examples of problems and solutions are presented and discussed, including the challenge of maintaining consistency with legacy design applications. As computational power has increased, the prospect of calculating large numbers of SIF solutions for specific complex geometries with advanced numerical methods has grown more attractive. Fawaz and Andersson, for example, have been generating literally millions of new SIF solutions for different combinations of multiple cracks under simplified loading schemes using p-version FE methods. These data are invaluable, but questions remain about their practical use, because the tabular databases of key results needed to support practical life analysis can occupy gigabytes of storage for only a few classes of geometries. The prospect of using such advanced numerical methods to calculate in real time only those K solutions actually needed to support a specific crack growth analysis is also tempting, but the stark reality is that the computational cost is still so high that the approach is not practical except for specific, critical application problems. Some thoughts are offered about alternative paradigms. Compounding approaches are some of the earliest building blocks of SIF development for more complex geometries. These approaches are especially attractive because of their very low computational cost and their conceptual robustness; they are, in some ways, an intriguing contrast and complement to the brute-force numerical methods. In recent years, researchers at NRC-Canada have published remarkable results showing how compounding approaches can be used to generate accurate solutions for very difficult problems. Examples are provided of some successes--and some limitations--using this approach. These closed-form, tabulated numerical, and compounding approaches have typically been used for simple remote loading with simple load paths to the crack. However, many significant cracks occur in complex stress gradient fields. This is a job for weight function (WF) methods, where the arbitrary stress distribution on the crack plane in the corresponding uncracked body (typically determined using FE methods) is used to determine K. Several significant recent advances in WF methods and solutions are highlighted here. Fueled by advanced 3D numerical methods, many new solutions have been generated for classic geometries such as surface and corner cracks with wide ranges of geometrical validity. A new WF formulation has also be developed for part-through cracks considering the arbitrary stress gradients in all directions in the crack plane (so-called bivariant solutions). Basic WF methods have recently been combined with analytical expressions for crack plane stresses to develop a large family of accurate SIF solutions for corner, surface, and through cracks at internal or external notches with very wide ranges of shapes, sizes, acuities, and offsets. Finally, WF solutions are much faster than FE or boundary element solutions, but can still be much slower than simple closed-form solutions, especially for bivariant solutions that can require 2D numerical integration. Novel pre-integration and dynamic tabular methods have been developed that substantially increase the speed of these advanced WF solutions. The practical utility of advanced SIF methods, including both WF and direct numerical methods, is greatly enhanced if the FM life analysis can be directly and efficiently linked with digital models of the actual structure or component (e.g., FE models for stress analysis). Two recent advances of this type will be described. One approach directly interfaces the FM life analysis with the FE model of the uncracked component (including stress results). Through a powerful graphical user interface, simplified FM life models can be constructed (and visualized) directly on the component model, with the computer collecting the geometry and stress gradient information needed for the life calculation. An even more powerful paradigm uses expert logic to automatically build an optimum simple fracture model at any and every desired location in the component model, perform the life calculation, and even generate fatigue crack growth life contour maps, all with minimal user intervention. This paradigm has also been extended to the automatic calculation of fracture risk, considering uncertainty or variability in key input parameters such as initial crack size or location. Another new integrated approach links the engineering life analysis, the component model, and a 3D numerical fracture analysis built with the same component model to generate a table of SIF values at a specific location that can then be employed efficiently to perform the life calculation. Some attention must be given to verification and validation (V&V) issues and challenges: how good are these SIF solutions, how good is good enough, and does anyone believe the life answer? It is important to think critically about the different sources of error or uncertainty and to perform V&V in a hierarchal, building-block manner. Some accuracy issues for SIF solutions, for example, may actually involve independent material behavior issues, such as constraint loss effects for crack fronts near component surfaces, and can be a source of confusion. Recommendations are proposed for improved V&V approaches. This presentation will briefly but critically survey the range of issues and advances mentioned above, with a particular view towards assembling an integrated approach that combines different methods to create practical tools for real-world design and analysis problems. Examples will be selectively drawn from the recent literature, from recent enhancements in the NASGRO and DARWIN computer codes, and from previously unpublished research

CraigMcClung, R.↗

Testing of Error-Correcting Sparse Permutation Channel Codes

A computer program performs Monte Carlo direct numerical simulations for testing sparse permutation channel codes, which offer strong error-correction capabilities at high code rates and are considered especially suitable for storage of digital data in holographic and volume memories. A word in a code of this type is characterized by, among other things, a sparseness parameter (M) and a fixed number (K) of 1 or "on" bits in a channel block length of N.

Shcheglov, Kirill, V.↗

Human Performance Improvement Task Group Task 21-1 Best Practice: Using virtual capabilities or options for HPI application (to reduce errors, strengthening defenses, strengthening the organization, and/or increasing capacity)

In 2020 the world was impacted by COVID-19. How work is done was dramatically changed for a large portion of the workforce. Many have made the abrupt shift to working from their home while others have adapted to COVID protocols (such as social distancing and wearing facemasks). Fundamentally, Human and Organizational Performance Improvement concepts and science did not change – only the delivery method changed (in some cases). The primary effect has been to accelerate dynamics already present in society – from e-commerce to online education to remote healthcare. Change is never easy for humans. However, remote work should be viewed as an opportunity; not a fix to a problem. In this Best Practice paper, you’ll get practical suggestions to help you reduce errors and improve Human Performance in remote, socially-distanced “work-from-home” environments.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Active figure maintenance control using an optical truss laser metrology system for a space-based far-IR segmented telescope

A two-stage active control approach was developed addressing the figure control problem for a spaceborne FIR telescope, the Precision Segmented Reflectors Focus Moderate Mission Telescope (FMMT). The first active control stage aligns the optical segments based on images; attention is here given to the second stage, active figure maintenance control system, which maintains the alignment of the optical elements between initializations to hold the mirror figure steady while obtaining data and fixes translational and rotational changes of the optical segments induced by long-term thermal drifts of the support structure. Errors are expected to be 10-100 microns at the nodes of the primary backup structure over the course of an orbit. An rms performance of 0.8 microns of wavefront error can be expected during the maintenance function based on specified nominal sensor noises, actuator accuracies, and system environments. A performance of less than 0.3 microns rms can be expected, based on advanced components.

Lau, Kenneth↗

Spin-squeezed Gottesman-Kitaev-Preskill codes for quantum error correction in atomic ensembles

Gottesman-Kitaev-Preskill (GKP) codes encode a qubit in displaced phase-space combs of a continuous-variable (CV) quantum system and are useful for correcting a variety of high-weight photonic errors. Here we propose atomic ensemble analogs of the single-mode CV GKP code by using the quantum central limit theorem to pull back the phase-space structure of a CV system to the compact phase space of a quantum spin system. We study the optimal recovery performance of these codes under error channels described by stochastic relaxation and isotropic ballistic dephasing processes using the diversity combining approach for calculating channel fidelity. Additionally, we find that the spin GKP codes outperform other spin system codes such as cat codes or binomial codes. Our spin GKP codes based on the two-axis countertwisting interaction and superpositions of SU(2) coherent states are direct spin analogs of the finite-energy CV GKP codes, whereas our codes based on one-axis twisting do not yet have well-studied CV analogs. A state preparation scheme for the spin GKP codes is proposed which uses the linear-combination-of-unitaries method, applicable to both the CV and spin GKP settings. Finally, we discuss a fault-tolerant approximate gate set for quantum computing with spin-GKP-encoded qubits, obtained by translating gates from the CV GKP setting using the quantum central limit theorem.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Solar Power Satellite antenna phase control system hardware simulation, phase 4. Volume 3: SOLARSIM users manual

Documentation of the interactive software package designed to predict the effect of certain electrical and mechanical imperfections on the performance of the SPS system is presented. The capabilities of the SOLARSIM program to quantify the spacetenna performance parameter values are described. The SOLARSIM package can compute the RMS pointing error, title effects, MPTX code tracking loop performance, MPTX carrier tracking loop performance, averaged power pattern, and the power transfer efficiency.

Lindsey, W. C.↗

Impact of random pointing and tracking errors on the design of coherent and incoherent optical intersatellite communication links

Given the rms transmitter pointing error and the desired probability of bit error (PBE), it can be shown that an optimal transmitter antenna gain exists which minimizes the required transmitter power. Given the rms local oscillator tracking error, an optimum receiver antenna gain can be found which optimizes the receiver performance. The impact of pointing and tracking errors on the design of direct-detection pulse-position modulation (PPM) and heterodyne noncoherent frequency-shift keying (NCFSK) systems are then analyzed in terms of constraints on the antenna size and the power penalty incurred. It is shown that in the limit of large spatial tracking errors, the advantage in receiver sensitivity for the heterodyne system is quickly offset by the smaller antenna gain and the higher power penalty due to tracking errors. In contrast, for systems with small spatial tracking errors, the heterodyne system is superior because of the higher receiver sensitivity.

Chen, Chien-Chung↗

Rocket-in-a-Duct Performance Analysis

An axisymmetric, 110 N class, rocket configured with a free expansion between the rocket nozzle and a surrounding duct was tested in an altitude simulation facility. The propellants were gaseous hydrogen and gaseous oxygen and the hardware consisted of a heat sink type copper rocket firing through copper ducts of various diameters and lengths. A secondary flow of nitrogen was introduced at the blind end of the duct to mix with the primary rocket mass flow in the duct. This flow was in the range of 0 to 10% of the primary massflow and its effect on nozzle performance was measured. The random measurement errors on thrust and massflow were within +/-1%. One dimensional equilibrium calculations were used to establish the possible theoretical performance of these rocket-in-a-duct nozzles. Although the scale of these tests was small, they simulated the relevant flow expansion physics at a modest experimental cost. Test results indicated that lower performance was obtained at higher free expansion area ratios and longer ducts, while, higher performance was obtained with the addition of secondary flow. There was a discernable peak in specific impulse efficiency at 4% secondary flow. The small scale of these tests resulted in low performance efficiencies, but prior numerical modeling of larger rocket-in-a-duct engines predicted performance that was comparable to that of optimized rocket nozzles. This remains to be proven in large-scale, rocket-in-a-duct tests.

Schneider, Steven J.↗

Full Duplex, Spread Spectrum Radio System

The goal of this project was to support the development of a full duplex, spread spectrum voice communications system. The assembly and testing of a prototype system consisting of a Harris PRISM spread spectrum radio, a TMS320C54x signal processing development board and a Zilog Z80180 microprocessor was underway at the start of this project. The efforts under this project were the development of multiple access schemes, analysis of full duplex voice feedback delays, and the development and analysis of forward error correction (FEC) algorithms. The multiple access analysis involved the selection between code division multiple access (CDMA), frequency division multiple access (FDMA) and time division multiple access (TDMA). Full duplex voice feedback analysis involved the analysis of packet size and delays associated with full loop voice feedback for confirmation of radio system performance. FEC analysis included studies of the performance under the expected burst error scenario with the relatively short packet lengths, and analysis of implementation in the TMS320C54x digital signal processor. When the capabilities and the limitations of the components used were considered, the multiple access scheme chosen was a combination TDMA/FDMA scheme that will provide up to eight users on each of three separate frequencies. Packets to and from each user will consist of 16 samples at a rate of 8,000 samples per second for a total of 2 ms of voice information. The resulting voice feedback delay will therefore be 4 - 6 ms. The most practical FEC algorithm for implementation was a convolutional code with a Viterbi decoder. Interleaving of the bits of each packet will be required to offset the effects of burst errors.

Harvey, Bruce A.↗

Effect of Vertical Rate Error on Recovery from Loss of Well Clear Between UAS and Non-Cooperative Intruders

When an Unmanned Aircraft System (UAS) encounters an intruder and is unable to maintain required temporal and spatial separation between the two vehicles, it is referred to as a loss of well-clear. In this state, the UAS must make its best attempt to regain separation while maximizing the minimum separation between itself and the intruder. When encountering a non-cooperative intruder (an aircraft operating under visual flight rules without ADS-B or an active transponder) the UAS must rely on the radar system to provide the intruders location, velocity, and heading information. As many UAS have limited climb and descent performance, vertical position andor vertical rate errors make it difficult to determine whether an intruder will pass above or below them. To account for that, there is a proposal by RTCA Special Committee 228 to prohibit guidance systems from providing vertical guidance to regain well-clear to UAS in an encounter with a non-cooperative intruder unless their radar system has vertical position error below 175 feet (95) and vertical velocity errors below 200 fpm (95). Two sets of fast-time parametric studies was conducted, each with 54000 pairwise encounters between a UAS and non-cooperative intruder to determine the suitability of offering vertical guidance to regain well clear to a UAS in the presence of radar sensor noise. The UAS was not allowed to maneuver until it received well-clear recovery guidance. The maximum severity of the loss of well-clear was logged and used as the primary indicator of the separation achieved by the UAS. One set of 54000 encounters allowed the UAS to maneuver either vertically or horizontally, while the second permitted horizontal maneuvers, only. Comparing the two data sets allowed researchers to see the effect of allowing vertical guidance to a UAS for a particular encounter and vertical rate error. Study results show there is a small reduction in the average severity of a loss of well-clear when vertical maneuvers are suppressed, for all vertical error rate thresholds examined. However, results also show that in roughly 35 of the encounters where a vertical maneuver was selected, forcing the UAS to do a horizontal maneuver instead increased the severity of the loss of well-clear for that encounter. Finally, results showed a small reduction in the number of severe losses of well-clear when the high performance UAS (2000 fpm climb and descent rate) was allowed to maneuver vertically, and the vertical rate error was below 500 fpm. Overall, the results show that using a single vertical rate threshold is not advisable, and that limiting a UAS to horizontal maneuvers when vertical rate errors are above 175 fpm can make a UAS less safe about a third of the time. It is suggested that the hard limit be removed, and system manufacturers instructed to account for their own UAS performance, as well as vertical rate error and encounter geometry, when determining whether or not to provide vertical guidance to regain well-clear.

detect and avoid↗

Tests of a Semi-Analytical Case 1 and Gelbstoff Case 2 SeaWiFS Algorithm with a Global Data Set

A semi-analytical algorithm was tested with a total of 733 points of either unpackaged or packaged-pigment data, with corresponding algorithm parameters for each data type. The 'unpackaged' type consisted of data sets that were generally consistent with the Case 1 CZCS algorithm and other well calibrated data sets. The 'packaged' type consisted of data sets apparently containing somewhat more packaged pigments, requiring modification of the absorption parameters of the model consistent with the CalCOFI study area. This resulted in two equally divided data sets. A more thorough scrutiny of these and other data sets using a semianalytical model requires improved knowledge of the phytoplankton and gelbstoff of the specific environment studied. Since the semi-analytical algorithm is dependent upon 4 spectral channels including the 412 nm channel, while most other algorithms are not, a means of testing data sets for consistency was sought. A numerical filter was developed to classify data sets into the above classes. The filter uses reflectance ratios, which can be determined from space. The sensitivity of such numerical filters to measurement resulting from atmospheric correction and sensor noise errors requires further study. The semi-analytical algorithm performed superbly on each of the data sets after classification, resulting in RMS1 errors of 0.107 and 0.121, respectively, for the unpackaged and packaged data-set classes, with little bias and slopes near 1.0. In combination, the RMS1 performance was 0.114. While these numbers appear rather sterling, one must bear in mind what mis-classification does to the results. Using an average or compromise parameterization on the modified global data set yielded an RMS1 error of 0.171, while using the unpackaged parameterization on the global evaluation data set yielded an RMS1 error of 0.284. So, without classification, the algorithm performs better globally using the average parameters than it does using the unpackaged parameters. Finally, the effects of even more extreme pigment packaging must be examined in order to improve algorithm performance at high latitudes. Note, however, that the North Sea and Mississippi River plume studies contributed data to the packaged and unpackaged classess, respectively, with little effect on algorithm performance. This suggests that gelbstoff-rich Case 2 waters do not seriously degrade performance of the semi-analytical algorithm.

Carder, Kendall L.↗

Comparison of Flow-Dependent and Static Error Correlation Models in the DAO Ozone Data Assimilation System

In a data assimilation system the forecast error covariance matrix governs the way in which the data information is spread throughout the model grid. Implementation of a correct method of assigning covariances is expected to have an impact on the analysis results. The simplest models assume that correlations are constant in time and isotropic or nearly isotropic. In such models the analysis depends on the dynamics only through assumed error standard deviations. In applications to atmospheric tracer data assimilation this may lead to inaccuracies, especially in regions with strong wind shears or high gradient of potential vorticity, as well as in areas where no data are available. In order to overcome this problem we have developed a flow-dependent covariance model that is based on short term evolution of error correlations. The presentation compares performance of a static and a flow-dependent model applied to a global three- dimensional ozone data assimilation system developed at NASA s Data Assimilation Office. We will present some results of validation against WMO balloon-borne sondes and the Polar Ozone and Aerosol Measurement (POAM) III instrument. Experiments show that allowing forecast error correlations to evolve with the flow results in positive impact on assimilated ozone within the regions where data were not assimilated, particularly at high latitudes in both hemispheres and in the troposphere. We will also discuss statistical characteristics of both models; in particular we will argue that including evolution of error correlations leads to stronger internal consistency of a data assimilation ,

Wargan, K.↗

Normalized Point Source Sensitivity for Off-Axis Optical Performance Evaluation of the Thirty Meter Telescope

The Normalized Point Source Sensitivity (PSSN) has previously been defined and analyzed as an On-Axis seeing-limited telescope performance metric. In this paper, we expand the scope of the PSSN definition to include Off-Axis field of view (FoV) points and apply this generalized metric for performance evaluation of the Thirty Meter Telescope (TMT). We first propose various possible choices for the PSSN definition and select one as our baseline. We show that our baseline metric has useful properties including the multiplicative feature even when considering Off-Axis FoV points, which has proven to be useful for optimizing the telescope error budget. Various TMT optical errors are considered for the performance evaluation including segment alignment and phasing, segment surface figures, temperature, and gravity, whose On-Axis PSSN values have previously been published by our group.

optical performance metric↗

High-order neural models for error correcting code

The decoding and error-correction of data transmitted over a noisy channel is in principle equivalent to the operation of a neural network performing as a content-addressable memory. For a successful application, however, the neural network has to be capable of storing arbitrary words, and it has to be guaranteed that the stored words represent the only stable attractors of the memory. This paper presents a novel high-order neural network architecture that has these characteristics. The analog nature of the network can be used to perform soft-decision decoding with any block code. The performance in terms of postdecoding bit error rate versus SNR is demonstrated for two exemplary block codes. The comparison with a conventional decoding algorithm for a (15,5) cyclic redundancy code shows, for example, that the bit error rate at 7dB SNR can be decreased by two orders of magnitude.

Jeffries, Clark↗

Skills, rules and knowledge in aircraft maintenance: errors in context

Automatic or skill-based behaviour is generally considered to be less prone to error than behaviour directed by conscious control. However, researchers who have applied Rasmussen's skill-rule-knowledge human error framework to accidents and incidents have sometimes found that skill-based errors appear in significant numbers. It is proposed that this is largely a reflection of the opportunities for error which workplaces present and does not indicate that skill-based behaviour is intrinsically unreliable. In the current study, 99 errors reported by 72 aircraft mechanics were examined in the light of a task analysis based on observations of the work of 25 aircraft mechanics. The task analysis identified the opportunities for error presented at various stages of maintenance work packages and by the job as a whole. Once the frequency of each error type was normalized in terms of the opportunities for error, it became apparent that skill-based performance is more reliable than rule-based performance, which is in turn more reliable than knowledge-based performance. The results reinforce the belief that industrial safety interventions designed to reduce errors would best be directed at those aspects of jobs that involve rule- and knowledge-based performance.

Aircraft↗