Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “ecological modeling”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 1,009 records · Page 56

Isolating the effect of biomass burning aerosol emissions on 20th century hydroclimate in South America and Southeast Asia

Abstract Biomass burning is a significant source of aerosol emissions in some regions and has a considerable impact on regional climate. Earth system model simulations indicate that increased biomass burning aerosol emissions contributed to statistically significant decreases in tropical precipitation over the 20th century. In this study, we use the Community Earth System Model version 1 Large Ensemble (CESM1-LENS) experiment to evaluate the mechanisms by which biomass burning aerosol contributed to decreased tropical precipitation, with a focus on South America and Southeast Asia. We analyze the all-but-one forcing simulations in which biomass burning aerosol emissions are held constant while other forcings (e.g., greenhouse gas concentrations) vary throughout the 20th century. This allows us to isolate the influence of biomass burning aerosol on processes that contribute to decreasing precipitation, including cloud microphysics, the radiative effects of absorbing aerosol particles, and alterations in regional circulation. We also show that the 20th century reduction in precipitation identified in the CESM1-LENS historical and biomass burning experiments is consistent across Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 models with interactive aerosol schemes and the CESM2 single-forcing experiment. Our results demonstrate that higher concentrations of biomass burning aerosol increases the quantity of cloud condensation nuclei and cloud droplets, limiting cloud droplet size and precipitation formation. Additionally, absorbing aerosols (e.g., black carbon) contribute to a warmer cloud layer, which promotes cloud evaporation, increases atmospheric stability, and alters regional circulation patterns. Corresponding convectively coupled circulation responses, particularly over the tropical Andes, contribute to further reducing the flow of moisture and moisture convergence over tropical land. These results elucidate the processes that affect the water cycle in regions prone to biomass burning and inform our understanding of how future changes in aerosol emissions may impact tropical precipitation over the 21st century.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗

Heavy and wet: The consequences of violating assumptions of measuring soil microbial growth efficiency using the 18O water method

Soils store more carbon than the biosphere and atmosphere combined, and the efficiency to which soil microorganisms allocate carbon to growth rather than respiration is increasingly considered a proxy for the soil capacity to store carbon. This carbon use efficiency (CUE) is measured via different methods, and more recently, the 18O-H2O method has been embraced as a significant improvement for measuring CUE of soil microbial communities. Based on extrapolating 18O incorporation into DNA to new biomass, this measurement makes various implicit assumptions about the microbial community at hand. Here we conducted a literature review to evaluate how viable these assumptions are and then developed a mathematical model to test how violating them affects estimates of the growth component of CUE in soil. We applied this model to previously collected data from two kinds of soil microbial communities. By changing one parameter at a time, we confirmed our previous observation that CUE was reduced by fungal removal. Our results also show that depending on the microbial community composition, there can be substantial discrepancies between estimated and true microbial growth. Of the numerous implicit assumptions that might be violated, not accounting for the contribution of sources of oxygen other than extracellular water to DNA leads to a consistent underestimation of CUE. We present a framework that allows researchers to evaluate how their experimental conditions may influence their 18O-H2O-based CUE measurements and suggest the parameters that need further constraining to more accurately quantify growth and CUE.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗

The Challenge of Achieving Site Closure of a Complex Groundwater Plume - 20531

Over the last three decades, DOE has made substantial progress in nearly every area of nuclear waste cleanup and has closed and transitioned 91 of the 107 sites in the EM complex. Several of the remaining groundwater plumes at Hanford, Los Alamos, Paducah, Oak Ridge, and Savannah River are complex and tend to have unique site or contaminant characteristics which provide an almost impossible challenge to remediate to regulatory levels. As a result, these complex sites will require a large investment to remediate. In order for DOE to achieve regulatory closure, a technically sound case must be developed and presented to regulators and stakeholders that clearly demonstrates that remedial goals have been or will be irreversibly achieved or that there is an alternate acceptable end-state. Five lines of evidence are required: - A conceptual site model that is as complete as possible, with the knowledge that it may continue to evolve with time; - Demonstration that trends in contaminant concentrations, or flux, versus time indicate that remedial goals will be achieved on schedule or within a reasonable time thereafter and that trends that deviate from this path are explainable by the conceptual model; - Demonstration that remobilization of attenuated contaminants is unlikely to occur in the future; - Explicit consideration of remedial contingencies, should deviations in the path toward remedial goals occur; - Development of an effective long-term monitoring plan to detect any conditions that might alter the path toward remedial goals. SRS has made significant progress in the remediation of contamination associated with the F-area and H-Area Seepage Basins, and it is currently developing a strategic closure path that addresses each of these lines of evidence and identifies both basic and applied scientific issues that will need to be addressed in order to obtain regulatory closure. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Trade-offs among restored ecosystem functions are context-dependent in Mediterranean-type regions

Global biodiversity hotspots, including Mediterranean-type ecosystems worldwide, are highly threatened by global change that alters biodiversity, ecosystem functions, and services. Some restoration activities enhance ecosystem functions by reintroducing plant species based on known relationships between plant traits and ecosystem processes. Achieving multiple functions across different site conditions, however, requires understanding how abiotic factors like climate and soil, along with plant assemblages, influence ecosystem functions, including their trade-offs and synergies. We used the ModEST ecosystem simulation model, which integrates carbon, water, and nutrient processes with plant traits, to assess the relationships between restored plant assemblages and ecosystem functions in Mediterranean-type climates and soils. We investigated whether maximised carbon increment, water use efficiency, and nitrogen use efficiency, along with their trade-offs and synergies, varied across different abiotic contexts. Further, we asked whether assemblages that maximised functions varied across environments and among these functions. We found that maximised ecosystem carbon increment and nitrogen use efficiency occurred under moist, warm conditions, while water use efficiency peaked under drier conditions. Generally, the assemblage that maximised one function differed from those for other maximised functions. Synergies were rare, except between water and nitrogen use efficiencies in loam soils across most climates. Trade-offs among maximised functions were common, varying in strength with abiotic context and plant assemblages, and were more pronounced in sandy loam soils compared to clay-rich soils. Our findings suggest that due to variation in abiotic conditions within and across Mediterranean-type regions at the global scale, site-specific plant assemblages are required to maximise ecosystem functions. Thus, lessons from a single site cannot be transferred to another site, even where the same plant functional types are available for restoration. Our simulation results offer valuable insights into potential ecosystem performance under specific abiotic conditions following restoration with particular plant functional types, thereby informing local restoration efforts.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Developing a Deep Learning-Computer Vision Framework to Monitor Avian Interactions with Solar Energy Facility Infrastructure (Final Technical Report)

The project addressed an inability to monitor avian interactions with photovoltaic (PV) solar energy facilities necessary for understanding PV solar impacts on birds. In the project, machine-vision technology that continuously monitors avian activities at PV solar facilities was developed. The technology includes four machine-learning (ML) models, each of which accomplishes a specific task in detecting birds and classifying their activities in live or recorded videos—detecting and tracking moving objects, differentiating birds from other objects, detecting bird collisions with solar panels, and classifying non-collision bird activities around PV facilities. Major project outcomes include adoption by two of DOE SETO’s SolWEB projects, providing novel observational data on birds to promote co-location of PV solar development and habitat conservation, known as ecovoltaics.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Shifting Trade-offs: Finding the Sustainable Nexus of Hydropower and Environmental Flows in the San Joaquin River Watershed, California

Environmental flow management in watersheds with multi-objective reservoirs is often presented as an additional constraint to an already strained and over-allocated stream system. Nevertheless, environmental flow legislation and regulatory policies are increasingly being developed and implemented globally. In California, USA, recent legislative and regulatory policies place environmental flows at the forefront of the state’s water management objectives; however, the increased reliance on hydropower to support climate change mitigation goals may complicate efforts on both issues. This study modelled alternative environmental flow strategies in the major tributaries to the San Joaquin River in California. Strategies included detailed water management rules for hydropower production, flood control, and water deliveries, and three methodological approaches to environmental flow releases: minimum instream flows (“baseline”) year-round, 40% of full natural flow (FNF) during the spring runoff season and minimum releases the remainder of the year, and functional flows year-round. Results show that environmental flow strategies affect downstream flow releases in each of the San Joaquin’s four sub-basins differently depending on infrastructure capacity, water management objectives, and hydrologic year types. While hydropower production was comparable or declined in the Stanislaus, Tuolumne, and Merced basins, functional flow and 40% FNF strategies increased hydropower production in the Upper San Joaquin basin by 11%. Uncontrolled spill of high flow events decreased when high flow releases were based on hydrologic cues rather than exclusively on flood storage capacity. Water deliveries were reduced in all years regardless of environmental flow strategy. The 40% FNF and functional flow strategies both increased water released to the river relative to baseline, but in different ways. The functional flow strategy allocated water in a holistic approach that enhanced ecological functions in all years, but particularly in moderate and wet years. In contrast, the 40% FNF strategy provided increased flows relative to baseline and some ecological benefit in dry years, but less ecological benefit in other years. This study shows that alternative environmental flow strategies will have different and important trade-offs for integrated water management, and may mutually benefit seemingly conflicting objectives.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

Design and Assessment of a Novel Approach for Ecosystem Warming Experiments in High‐Energy Tidal Wetlands

Abstract Coastal salt marshes have an important role in climate change adaptation and mitigation. Direct and indirect responses to warming are expected to vary along the marsh elevation gradient, making ecosystem responses to warming at this marine‐terrestrial ecotone uncertain. The Marsh Ecosystem Response to Increased Temperatures (MERIT) experiment was established in 2018 on the North Sea coast of Germany. Experimental plots are evenly distributed over three elevational marsh zones (pioneer, low marsh, and high marsh) and include three temperature treatments (ambient, +1.5°C, +3.0°C). MERIT's novel design combines active warming (horizontal surface warming cables and vertical soil warming pins) with passive, partially covered domes. For performance assessment, temperature deltas between ambient and warmed plots were calculated and evaluated at seasonal, daily, and diurnal timescales. We used Linear Mixed Models with Residual Maximum Likelihood for evaluating warming treatment effects and constraining environmental factors. MERIT was effective at ecosystem warming in this high‐energy environment both above‐ and belowground. Mixed models show that warming treatment dominates temperature differences belowground and at the soil surface, along with factors such as wind speed, flooding duration, and solar radiation. Aboveground warming was lower than belowground warming, but the dome design minimized issues seen in other open‐top chamber experiments. The combination of passive aboveground warming with feedback‐controlled active surface and belowground heating provides a setup for understanding warming effects on tidal ecosystems without altering the natural impacts of wind, radiation, and tidal inundations at high‐energy coastlines. Our design creates opportunities to expand future warming experiments to remote locations and technically challenging environments.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗

A geospatial environmental and techno-economic framework for sustainable phosphorus management at livestock facilities

Nutrient pollution of waterbodies is a major worldwide water quality problem. Excessive use and discharge of nutrients can lead to eutrophication and algal blooms in fresh and marine waters, resulting in environmental problems associated with hypoxia, public health issues related to the release of toxins and freshwater scarcity. A promising option to address this problem is the recovery of nutrient releases prior to being discharged into the environment. Driven by the sustainable materials management concept, the COW2NUTRIENT (Cattle Organic Waste to NUTRIent and ENergy Technologies) framework is developed for the techno-economic evaluation and selection of nutrient recovery systems at livestock facilities. Furthermore, environmental vulnerability to nutrient pollution determined through a geographic information system (GIS)-based model and techno-economic information of different state-of-the-art nutrient management technologies are combined in a multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) model, resulting in the selection and economic analysis of the most suitable process for each studied livestock facility. This framework has been employed for studying the implementation of sustainable phosphorus management systems at 2,217 livestock facilities in the Great Lakes area, resulting in capital expenses of 2.5 billion USD if only phosphorus recovery technologies are installed, and up to 5.2 billion USD if nutrient management is combined with biogas and power production. However, considering potential economic incentives for the recovery of phosphorus, net revenues up to 230 million USD per year can be achieved. Therefore, the framework presented reveals the potential of implementing nutrient management systems at regional scale for the abatement of phosphorus releases from livestock facilities.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

BONCAT-Live for isolation and cultivation of active environmental bacteria

In diverse environments, microbes drive a myriad of processes, from geochemical and nutrient cycling to interspecies interactions, including associations with plants and animals. Their physiological state is dynamic and impacted by abiotic and biotic conditions, responding to environmental fluctuations by changes in cellular metabolism, according to their genetic potential. Molecular, cellular, and genomic approaches can identify and measure microbial responses and adaptation to environmental changes in native communities. However, isolating individual microbial cells that respond to specific changes for cultivation has been difficult. To address this, we implemented a novel bacterial isolation approach (BONCAT-Live) by integrating bio-orthogonal non-canonical amino acid tagging (BONCAT) in diverse native communities, with isolation and cultivation of cells responding to specific stimuli, at different time scales. In frozen Arctic permafrost samples, we identified and isolated dormant bacteria that become active after thawing under native or nutrient-enriched conditions. From the Populus tree rhizosphere, we isolated strains that thrive under high concentrations of root exudates that act as defense compounds and nutrients. In the human microbiome, we identified and isolated bacteria that rapidly proliferated when exposed to metabolites provided by the host or other co-occurring microbes. Further characterization of isolated bacterial strains will provide opportunities for in-depth determination of how these microbes adapt to changes in their environments, individually and as part of model communities.

Analytical Methods↗

Ecosystems and Networks Integrated with Genes and Molecular Assemblies (ENIGMA). Final report

The goal of the Stahl lab is to use a combination of isotopic, genomic, and activity-based analyses in the field, of selected field isolates, and defined synthetic communities to identify sources and sinks of different nitrogen species in the field, focusing on the FRC at the ORNL. The most general research objective is to characterize variants in the pathway for denitrification among field isolates and synthetic microbial assemblies as a foundation for predicting the biotic and abiotic controls of nitrogen and carbon transformations in the field. Specifically, we have focused on characterizing environmental controls of nitrous oxide emissions, an important greenhouse gas and ozone depleting molecule. Studies have mapped the flux of nitrous oxide and controlling genetic elements within the FRC subsurface, indicating the importance of different enzyme variants in nitrous oxide production and consumption in controlling surface emissions. We have developed methods to quantify and catalog the isotopic signatures imparted on nitrous oxide by different nitrous oxide reductase variants in isolated organisms and model synthetic communities. We have developed methods to quantify and catalog the nitrous oxide affinity of field relevant isolates and their biomass yield when respiring nitrous oxide on different carbon substrates. We continue to expand the collection of field-relevant microbial isolates within ENIGMA by focused enrichment and isolation from field material. These objectives have been facilitated by the development of new technologies, including: 1) the development of a multiplexed automated optical density measurement system for quantifying growth kinetics of microorganisms dependent on gaseous substrates in monoculture or gas exchange in synthetic communities and 2) the development of a microcalorimetric analysis format to quantify the impact of environmental stress on microbial maintenance energy. Since field relevant processes are mediated by assemblies of organisms interacting with each other and their local environment, we have also collaborated with other ENIGMA investigators on the assembly and characterization of synthetic communities. These studies have evaluated the role of organisms lacking a complete pathway for denitrification in the control of field processes, measuring process rates of assemblies of organisms that individually lack the full denitrification pathway but mediate the complete denitrification when growing together. These efforts have so far resulted in the publication of 18 peer reviewed papers ranging from ecological and physiological drivers of pathway optimization to field-scale process characterization.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Plant carbohydrate storage: intra- and inter-specific trade-offs reveal a major life history trait

Trade-offs among carbon sinks constrain how trees physiologically, ecologically, and evolutionarily respond to their environments. These trade-offs typically fall along a productive growth to conservative, bet-hedging continuum. How nonstructural carbohydrates (NSCs) stored in living tree cells (known as carbon stores) fit in this trade-off framework is not well understood. Here, we examined relationships between growth and storage using both within species genetic variation from a common garden, and across species phenotypic variation from a global database. We demonstrate that storage is actively accumulated, as part of a conservative, bet-hedging life history strategy. Storage accumulates at the expense of growth both within and across species. Within the species Populus trichocarpa, genetic trade-offs show that for each additional unit of wood area growth (in cm 2 yr –1 ) that genotypes invest in, they lose 1.2 to 1.7 units (mg g –1 NSC) of storage. Across species, for each additional unit of area growth (in cm 2 yr –1 ), trees, on average, reduce their storage by 9.5% in stems and 10.4% in roots. Our findings impact our understanding of basic plant biology, fit storage into a widely used growth-survival trade-off spectrum describing life history strategy, and challenges the assumptions of passive storage made in ecosystem models today.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Forest Carbon Storage in the Western United States: Distribution, Drivers, and Trends

Abstract Forests are a large carbon sink and could serve as natural climate solutions that help moderate future warming. Thus, establishing forest carbon baselines is essential for tracking climate‐mitigation targets. Western US forests are natural climate solution hotspots but are profoundly threatened by drought and altered disturbance regimes. How these factors shape spatial patterns of carbon storage and carbon change over time is poorly resolved. Here, we estimate live and dead forest carbon density in 19 forested western US ecoregions with national inventory data (2005–2019) to determine: (a) current carbon distributions, (b) underpinning drivers, and (c) recent trends. Potential drivers of current carbon included harvest, wildfire, insect and disease, topography, and climate. Using random forests, we evaluated driver importance and relationships with current live and dead carbon within ecoregions. We assessed trends using linear models. Pacific Northwest (PNW) and Southwest (SW) ecoregions were most and least carbon dense, respectively. Climate was an important carbon driver in the SW and Lower Rockies. Fire reduced live and increased dead carbon, and was most important in the Upper Rockies and California. No ecoregion was unaffected by fire. Harvest and private ownership reduced carbon, particularly in the PNW. Since 2005, live carbon declined across much of the western US, likely from drought and fire. Carbon has increased in PNW ecoregions, likely recovering from past harvest, but recent record fire years may alter trajectories. Our results provide insight into western US forest carbon function and future vulnerabilities, which is vital for effective climate change mitigation strategies.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗

Estimating the CO 2 Fertilization Effect on Extratropical Forest Productivity From Flux‐Tower Observations

Abstract The land sink of anthropogenic carbon emissions, a crucial component of mitigating climate change, is primarily attributed to the CO 2 fertilization effect on global gross primary productivity (GPP). However, direct observational evidence of this effect remains scarce, hampered by challenges in disentangling the CO 2 fertilization effect from other long‐term confounding drivers, particularly climatic changes. Here, we introduce a novel statistical approach to separate the CO 2 fertilization effect on photosynthetic carbon uptake using eddy covariance (EC) records across 38 extratropical forest sites. We find the median stimulation rate of GPP to be 3.2 ± 0.9 gC m −2 yr −1 ppm −1 (or 16.4 ± 4.2% per 100 ppm) under increasing atmospheric CO 2 across these sites, respectively. To validate the robustness of our findings, we test our statistical method using factorial simulations of an ensemble of process‐based land surface models. We address additional factors, including nitrogen deposition and land management, that may impact plant productivity, potentially confounding the attribution to the CO 2 fertilization effect. Assuming these site‐specific effects offset to some extent across sites as random factors, the estimated median value still reflects the strength of the CO 2 fertilization effect. However, disentanglement of these long‐term effects, often inseparable by timescale, requires further causal research. Our study provides direct evidence that the photosynthetic stimulation is maintained under long‐term CO 2 fertilization across multiple EC sites. Such observation‐based quantification is key to constraining the long‐standing uncertainties in the land carbon cycle under rising CO 2 concentrations.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗

Potential impacts of mercury released from thawing permafrost

Abstract Mercury (Hg) is a naturally occurring element that bonds with organic matter and, when converted to methylmercury, is a potent neurotoxicant. Here we estimate potential future releases of Hg from thawing permafrost for low and high greenhouse gas emissions scenarios using a mechanistic model. By 2200, the high emissions scenario shows annual permafrost Hg emissions to the atmosphere comparable to current global anthropogenic emissions. By 2100, simulated Hg concentrations in the Yukon River increase by 14% for the low emissions scenario, but double for the high emissions scenario. Fish Hg concentrations do not exceed United States Environmental Protection Agency guidelines for the low emissions scenario by 2300, but for the high emissions scenario, fish in the Yukon River exceed EPA guidelines by 2050. Our results indicate minimal impacts to Hg concentrations in water and fish for the low emissions scenario and high impacts for the high emissions scenario.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Seasonality regulates the structure and biogeochemical impact of ectomycorrhizal fungal communities across environmentally divergent neotropical dry forests

Abstract Ectomycorrhizal (ECM) symbioses support forest functioning globally, yet both the structure and function of ECM fungal communities in seasonally dry neotropical forests (SDTFs), known for extreme heterogeneity in vegetation and edaphic properties, remain under characterized. Here, we evaluated the relative influences of seasonal versus spatial variation in ECM fungal community structure in soils from four environmentally divergent SDTFs. We also assessed the importance of biotic and abiotic drivers of SDTF ECM fungal community structure at regional scales, as well as ECM impacts on soil carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) cycling. ECM fungal frequency, relative abundance and richness all increased in the wet season, but spatial rather than seasonal effects explained more variation in community composition. Across the four SDTFs investigated, differences in tree communities drove ECM fungal community turnover more than geographic distances, site abiotic conditions or soil chemistry. Although soil moisture and ECM tree basal area were stronger predictors of soil biogeochemistry, incorporating ECM fungal community composition and relative abundance added explanatory power to models of soil C and N cycling in the wet season. Synthesis : Our results highlight the importance of seasonality and plant community composition in shaping different aspects of SDTF ECM fungal community structure and diversity as well as the potential for both the plant and fungal components of ECM symbioses to impact soil functioning across heterogenous SDTFs. Furthermore, our findings suggest that alterations in SDTF plant community composition due to climate or land‐use change will have important consequences for ECM fungal diversity and associated effects on soil biogeochemical cycling.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Substantial and overlooked greenhouse gas emissions from deep Arctic lake sediment - supporting data and code

This data package contains data, descriptions, and code-based analyses that were used to support conclusions drawn in “Substantial and overlooked greenhouse gas emissions from deep Arctic lake sediment”, by Freitas et al. (2025) (https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-024-01614-y). The study evaluated greenhouse gas production along a deep sediment core (20 m) taken in 2018 from below Goldstream Lake, a field site approximately 15 km north of Fairbanks, Alaska.The file “ESSDive_NFreitas_2024_flmd.csv” includes an overview of all other csv files in this data package, namely: sediment descriptions (depth and type of sediment), sediment characterizations (bulk density, gravimetric water content, total carbon, etc.), calculated respiration and temperature sensitivity values associated with year-long incubations of the sediment core, and the R code used to process the dataset. Additional details regarding the content of these files and how the calculations were performed are described in the Methods section of this archive. The “data_dictionary_ESSDive_NFreitas_2024_dd.csv” is a data dictionary for all files included in the data package. Each row in the data dictionary represents a column name in a given file. The Next-Generation Ecosystem Experiments: Arctic (NGEE Arctic), was a research effort to reduce uncertainty in Earth System Models by developing a predictive understanding of carbon-rich Arctic ecosystems and feedbacks to climate. NGEE Arctic was supported by the Department of Energy's Office of Biological and Environmental Research. The NGEE Arctic project had two field research sites: 1) located within the Arctic polygonal tundra coastal region on the Barrow Environmental Observatory (BEO) and the North Slope near Utqiagvik (Barrow), Alaska and 2) multiple areas on the discontinuous permafrost region of the Seward Peninsula north of Nome, Alaska.Through observations, experiments, and synthesis with existing datasets, NGEE Arctic provided an enhanced knowledge base for multi-scale modeling and contributed to improved process representation at global pan-Arctic scales within the Department of Energy's Earth system Model (the Energy Exascale Earth System Model, or E3SM), and specifically within the E3SM Land Model component (ELM).Data package updates- August 2024: Title was updated, R code now includes a process for calculating potential production across the whole sediment column, the "sediment_column_production_potentials_ESSDive_NFreitas_2024.csv" is the associated data output file, and the file level metadata and data dictionaries were updated to reflect the contents of the additional csv file.- October 2024: Title was updated, and a statement was added to Step 2 of the Methods that describes that samples were collected (and exported) in a responsible manner and in accordance with relevant permits and local laws.- January 2025: Updated the associated manuscript details in the Abstract (manuscript title, publication date, DOI link) and in the Related References section (full citation).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Projecting Changes in the Frequency and Magnitude of Ozone Pollution Events Under Uncertain Climate Sensitivity

Abstract Climate change is projected to worsen ozone pollution over many populated regions, with larger impacts at higher concentrations. More intense and frequent ozone episodes risk setbacks to human health and environmental policy achievements. However, assessing these changes is complicated by uncertain climate sensitivity, closely related to climate model response, and internal variability in simulations projecting climate's influence on air quality. Here, leveraging a global modeling framework that one‐way couples a human activity model, an Earth system model of intermediate complexity, and an atmospheric chemistry model, we investigate the role of climate sensitivity in climate‐induced changes to high ozone pollution episodes in the United States using multiple greenhouse gas emissions scenarios, representations of climate sensitivity, and initial condition members. We bias correct and evaluate historical model simulations, identifying modeled and observed O 3 episodes using extreme value theory, and extend the approach to projections of mid‐ and end‐century climate impacts. Results show that the influence of climate sensitivity can be as significant as that of greenhouse gas emissions scenario absent precursor emissions changes. Climate change is projected to increase the magnitude of the highest annually occurring O 3 concentrations by over 2.3 ppb on average across the U.S. at mid‐century under a high climate sensitivity and moderate emissions scenario, but the increase is limited to less than 0.3 ppb under lower climate sensitivity. Further, we show that areas in the U.S. currently meeting air quality standards risk being pushed into non‐compliance due to a climate‐induced increase in frequency of high ozone days.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗

A novel approach to partitioning evapotranspiration into evaporation and transpiration in flooded ecosystems

Reliable partitioning of micrometeorologically measured evapotranspiration (ET) into evaporation (E) and transpiration (T) would greatly enhance our understanding of the water cycle and its response to climate change related shifts in local-to-regional climate conditions and rising global levels of vapor pressure deficit (VPD). While some methods on ET partitioning have been developed, their underlying assumptions make them difficult to apply more generally, especially in sites with large contributions of E. Here, we report a novel ET partitioning method using artificial neural networks (ANNs) in combination with a range of environmental input variables to predict daytime E from nighttime ET measurements. The study uses eddy covariance data from four restored wetlands in the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta, California, USA, as well as leaf-level T data for validation. The four wetlands vary in their vegetation make-up and structure, representing a range of ET conditions. The ANNs were built with increasing complexity by adding the input variable that resulted in the next highest average value of model testing R 2 across all sites. The order of variable inclusion (and importance) was: VPD > gap-filled sensible heat flux (H_gf) > air temperature (T air ) > friction velocity (u * ) > other variables. The model using VPD, H_gf, T air , and u * showed the best performance during validation with independent data and had a mean testing R 2 value of 0.853 (averaged across all sites, range from 0.728 to 0.910). In comparison to other methods, our ANN method generated T/ET partitioning results which were more consistent with CO 2 exchange data especially for more heterogeneous sites with large E contributions. Further, our method improves the understanding of T/ET partitioning. While it may be particularly suited to flooded ecosystems, it can also improve T/ET partitioning in other systems, increasing our knowledge of the global water cycle and ecosystem functioning.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗