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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

Converting sWeights to probabilities with density ratios

The use of machine learning approaches continues to have many benefits in experimental nuclear and particle physics. One common issue is generating training data which is sufficiently realistic to give reliable results. Here we advocate using real experimental data as the source of training data and demonstrate how one might subtract background contributions through the use of probabilistic weights which can be readily applied to training data. The sPlot formalism is a common tool used to isolate distributions from different sources. However, the negative sWeights produced by the sPlot technique can cause training problems and poor predictive power. This article demonstrates how density ratio estimation can be applied to convert sWeights to event probabilities, which we call drWeights. The drWeights can then be applied to produce the distributions of interest and are consistent with direct use of the sWeights. This article will also show how decision trees are particularly well suited to convert sWeights, with the benefit of fast prediction rates and adaptability to aspects of experimental data such as the data sample size and proportions of different event sources. We also show that a density ratio product approach in which the initial drWeights are reweighted by an additional converter gives substantially better results.

Glazier, Derek I. [Univ. of Glasgow, Scotland (Uni↗
DOE OSTI2021

Streamflow simulation in data-scarce basins using Bayesian and physics-informed machine learning models

Hydrologic predictions at rural watersheds are important but also challenging due to data shortage. Long short-term memory (LSTM) networks are a promising machine learning approach and have demonstrated good performance in streamflow predictions. However, due to its data-hungry nature, most LSTM applications focus on well-monitored catchments with abundant and high-quality observations. In this work, we investigate predictive capabilities of LSTM in poorly monitored watersheds with short observation records. To address three main challenges of LSTM applications in data-scarce locations, i.e., overfitting, uncertainty quantification (UQ), and out-of-distribution prediction, we evaluate different regularization techniques to prevent overfitting, apply a Bayesian LSTM for UQ, and introduce a physics-informed hybrid LSTM to enhance out-of-distribution prediction. Through case studies in two diverse sets of catchments with and without snow influence, we demonstrate that 1) when hydrologic variability in the prediction period is similar to the calibration period, LSTM models can reasonably predict daily streamflow with Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency above 0.8, even with only 2 years of calibration data; 2) when the hydrologic variability in the prediction and calibration periods is dramatically different, LSTM alone does not predict well, but the hybrid model can improve the out-of-distribution prediction with acceptable generalization accuracy; 3) L2 norm penalty and dropout can mitigate overfitting, and Bayesian and hybrid LSTM have no overfitting; and 4) Bayesian LSTM provides useful uncertainty information to improve prediction understanding and credibility. In conclusion, these insights have vital implications for streamflow simulation in watersheds where data quality and availability are a critical issue.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Physics vs structure: A systematic benchmark of learning strategies for multi-zone building thermal dynamics

Recent advances in physics-informed and data-driven machine learning promise improved thermal models for advanced building control, yet there is limited quantitative evidence on when added physics structure and architectural complexity are beneficial. Here, this work presents a systematic benchmark of five representative system identification methods for modeling multi-zone building thermal dynamics: linear state-space models, multi-layer perceptrons, neural state-space models, neural ordinary differential equations, and physically-consistent neural networks. The methods are evaluated across multiple data regimes and zone coupling strategies. Using a high-fidelity multi-zone commercial building emulator, we examine short-term and long-term prediction accuracy, computational efficiency, and ease of development. Our results reveal critical trade-offs between prediction performance, model complexity, and physical consistency. We demonstrate that decoupled, nonlinear black-box models consistently outperform coupled physics-constrained architectures in both predictive accuracy and out-of-distribution robustness in majority of the test cases for the building type considered in the study. Our findings quantify the cost of complexity in building thermal modeling and provide concrete, actionable, scenario-based guidelines for selecting model classes for control-oriented applications.

Building thermal modeling↗
DOE OSTI2024

MassiveGNN: Efficient Training via Prefetching for Massively Connected Distributed Graphs

Graph Neural Networks (GNN) are indispensable in learning from graph-structured data, yet their rising computational costs, especially on massively connected graphs, pose significant challenges in terms of execution performance. To tackle this, distributed-memory solutions such as partitioning the graph to concurrently train multiple replicas of GNNs are in practice. However, approaches requiring a partitioned graph usually suffer from communication overhead and load imbalance, even under optimal partitioning and communication strategies due to irregularities in the neighborhood minibatch sampling. This paper proposes practical trade-offs for improving the sampling and communication overheads for representation learn- ing on distributed graphs (using popular GraphSAGE architecture) by developing a parameterized prefetch and eviction scheme on top of the state-of-the-art Amazon DistDGL distributed GNN framework, demonstrating about 15–40% improvement in end-to-end training performance on the NERSC Perlmutter supercomputer for various OGB datasets.

Machine Leanring, high performance comptuing, grap↗
DOE OSTI2022

Enhanced analysis of experimental x-ray spectra through deep learning

X-ray spectroscopic data from high-energy-density laser-produced plasmas has long required thorough, time-consuming analysis to extract meaningful source conditions. There are often confounding factors due to rapidly evolving states and finite spatial gradients (e.g., the existence of multi-temperature, multi-density, multi-ionization states, etc.) that make spectral measurements and analysis difficult. Here, in this paper, we demonstrate how deep learning can be applied to enhance x-ray spectral data analysis in both speed and intricacy. Neural networks (NNs) are trained on ensemble atomic physics simulations so that they can subsequently construct a model capable of extracting plasma parameters directly from experimental spectra. Through deep learning, the models can extract temperature distributions as opposed to single or dual temperature/density fits from standard trial-and-error atomic modeling at a significantly reduced computational cost compared to traditional trial-and-error methods. These NNs are envisioned to be deployed with high repetition rate x-ray spectrometers in order to provide detailed real-time analysis of experimental spectra.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Enabling Modular Autonomous Feedback‐Loops in Materials Science through Hierarchical Experimental Laboratory Automation and Orchestration

Abstract Materials acceleration platforms (MAPs) operate on the paradigm of integrating combinatorial synthesis, high‐throughput characterization, automatic analysis, and machine learning. Within a MAP, one or multiple autonomous feedback loops may aim to optimize materials for certain functional properties or to generate new insights. The scope of a given experiment campaign is defined by the range of experiment and analysis actions that are integrated into the experiment framework. Herein, the authors present a method for integrating many actions within a hierarchical experimental laboratory automation and orchestration (HELAO) framework. They demonstrate the capability of orchestrating distributed research instruments that can incorporate data from experiments, simulations, and databases. HELAO interfaces laboratory hardware and software distributed across several computers and operating systems for executing experiments, data analysis, provenance tracking, and autonomous planning. Parallelization is an effective approach for accelerating knowledge generation provided that multiple instruments can be effectively coordinated, which the authors demonstrate with parallel electrochemistry experiments orchestrated by HELAO. Efficient implementation of autonomous research strategies requires device sharing, asynchronous multithreading, and full integration of data management in experimental orchestration, which to the best of the authors’ knowledge, is demonstrated for the first time herein.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2025

Kernel methods for evolution of generalized parton distributions

Generalized parton distributions (GPDs) characterize the 3-dimensional structure of hadrons, combining information about their internal quark and gluon longitudinal momentum distributions and transverse position within the hadron. The dependence of GPDs on the factorization scale Q 2 allows one to connect hard exclusive processes involving GPDs at disparate energy and momentum scales, which is needed in global analyses of experimental data. Here, in this work, we explore how finite element methods can be used to construct fast and differentiable Q 2 evolution codes for GPDs in momentum space, which can be used in a machine learning framework. We show numerical benchmarks of the methods' accuracy, including a comparison to an existing evolution code from PARTONS/APFEL++, and provide a repository where the code can be accessed.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Maximizing efficiency of dataset compression for machine learning potentials with information theory

Machine learning interatomic potentials (MLIPs) balance high accuracy and lower costs compared to density functional theory calculations, but their performance often depends on the size and diversity of training datasets. Large datasets improve model accuracy and generalization but are computationally expensive to produce and train on, while smaller datasets risk discarding rare but important atomic environments and compromising MLIP accuracy/reliability. Here, we develop an information-theoretical framework to quantify the efficiency of dataset compression methods and propose an algorithm that maximizes this efficiency. By framing atomistic dataset compression as an instance of the minimum set cover (MSC) problem over atom-centered environments, our method identifies the smallest subset of structures that contains as much information as possible from the original dataset while pruning redundant information. The approach is extensively demonstrated on the GAP-20 and TM23 datasets and validated on 64 varied datasets from the ColabFit repository. Across all cases, MSC consistently retains outliers, preserves dataset diversity, and reproduces the long-tail distributions of forces even at high compression rates, outperforming other subsampling methods. Furthermore, MLIPs trained on MSC-compressed datasets exhibit reduced error for out-of-distribution data even in low-data regimes. We explain these results using an outlier analysis and show that such quantitative conclusions could not be achieved with conventional dimensionality reduction methods. The algorithm is implemented in the open-source QUESTS package and can be used for several tasks in atomistic modeling, from data subsampling, outlier detection, and training improved MLIPs at a lower cost.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2020

Error-mitigated data-driven circuit learning on noisy quantum hardware

Application-level benchmarks measure how well a quantum device performs meaningful calculations. In the case of parameterized circuit training, the computational task is the preparation of a target quantum state via optimization over a loss landscape. This is complicated by various sources of noise, fixed hardware connectivity, and generative modeling, the choice of target distribution. Gradient-based training has become a useful benchmarking task for noisy intermediate-scale quantum computers because of the additional requirement that the optimization step uses the quantum device to estimate the loss function gradient. In this work, we use gradient-based data-driven circuit learning to qualitatively evaluate the performance of several superconducting platform devices and present results that show how error mitigation can improve the training of quantum circuit Born machines with 28 tunable parameters.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2020

Perovskite neural trees

Trees are used by animals, humans and machines to classify information and make decisions. Natural tree structures displayed by synapses of the brain involves potentiation and depression capable of branching and is essential for survival and learning. Demonstration of such features in synthetic matter is challenging due to the need to host a complex energy landscape capable of learning, memory and electrical interrogation. We report experimental realization of tree-like conductance states at room temperature in strongly correlated perovskite nickelates by modulating proton distribution under high speed electric pulses. This demonstration represents physical realization of ultrametric trees, a concept from number theory applied to the study of spin glasses in physics that inspired early neural network theory dating almost forty years ago. We apply the tree-like memory features in spiking neural networks to demonstrate high fidelity object recognition, and in future can open new directions for neuromorphic computing and artificial intelligence.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2022

Gaussian processes meet NeuralODEs: a Bayesian framework for learning the dynamics of partially observed systems from scarce and noisy data

We present a machine learning framework (GP-NODE) for Bayesian model discovery from partial, noisy and irregular observations of nonlinear dynamical systems. The proposed method takes advantage of differentiable programming to propagate gradient information through ordinary differential equation solvers and perform Bayesian inference with respect to unknown model parameters using Hamiltonian Monte Carlo sampling and Gaussian Process priors over the observed system states. This allows us to exploit temporal correlations in the observed data, and efficiently infer posterior distributions over plausible models with quantified uncertainty. The use of the Finnish Horseshoe as a sparsity-promoting prior for free model parameters also enables the discovery of parsimonious representations for the latent dynamics. A series of numerical studies is presented to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed GP-NODE method including predator–prey systems, systems biology and a 50-dimensional human motion dynamical system. This article is part of the theme issue ‘Data-driven prediction in dynamical systems’.

Science & Technology - Other Topics↗
DOE OSTI2025

A Weakly Supervised Machine Learning Procedure for Magnet Quench Diagnostics

Voltage taps remain the standard and reliable diagnostic tool for detecting quenches in superconducting magnets. However, they identify a quench only at the time of voltage rise and do not provide information on earlier physical precursors. In this work, we investigate whether acoustic emission data can reveal precursor activity that occurs before conventional voltage detection using machine learning techniques. We introduce an event selection method and a weakly supervised machine learning procedure to learn data-driven criteria for identifying potential acoustic precursors to quenches. Two Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) architectures are trained: one on acoustic sensor events from our selection procedure and one on the Fast Fourier Transforms (FFTs) of these events. Both networks are trained iteratively using confidence-weighted loss functions to associate certain subsets of training data with a precursor label. We evaluate the performance of these models by examining the time distribution of events classified as potential precursors relative to the quench onset. Results indicate that the proposed approach can possibly distinguish acoustic emission events occurring closer to the quench from earlier acoustic activity during ramping, suggesting the potential for flagging quench precursors in acoustic data.

Khan, Maira [Fermilab] (ORCID:0009000891602387)↗
DOE OSTI2020

Predicting Volume of Distribution in Humans: Performance of In Silico Methods for a Large Set of Structurally Diverse Clinical Compounds

Volume of distribution at steady state (V D,ss ) is one of the key pharmacokinetic parameters estimated during the drug discovery process. Despite considerable efforts to predict V D,ss , accuracy and choice of prediction methods remain a challenge, with evaluations constrained to a small set (<150) of compounds. To address these issues, a series of in silico methods for predicting human V D,ss directly from structure were evaluated using a large set of clinical compounds. Machine learning (ML) models were built to predict V D,ss directly and to predict input parameters required for mechanistic and empirical V D,ss predictions. In addition, log D, fraction unbound in plasma (fup), and blood-to-plasma partition ratio (BPR) were measured on 254 compounds to estimate the impact of measured data on predictive performance of mechanistic models. Furthermore, the impact of novel methodologies such as measuring partition (Kp) in adipocytes and myocytes (n = 189) on V D,ss predictions was also investigated. In predicting V D,ss directly from chemical structures, both mechanistic and empirical scaling using a combination of predicted rat and dog V D,ss demonstrated comparable performance (62%–71% within 3-fold). The direct ML model outperformed other in silico methods (75% within 3-fold, r 2 = 0.5, AAFE = 2.2) when built from a larger data set. Scaling to human from predicted V D,ss of either rat or dog yielded poor results (<47% within 3-fold). Measured fup and BPR improved performance of mechanistic V D,ss predictions significantly (81% within 3-fold, r 2 = 0.6, AAFE = 2.0). Adipocyte intracellular Kp showed good correlation to the V D,ss but was limited in estimating the compounds with low V D,ss .

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Multiscale X-ray phase contrast imaging of human cartilage for investigating osteoarthritis formation

The evolution of cartilage degeneration is still not fully understood, partly due to its thinness, low radio-opacity and therefore lack of adequately resolving imaging techniques. X-ray phase-contrast imaging (X-PCI) offers increased sensitivity with respect to standard radiography and CT allowing an enhanced visibility of adjoining, low density structures with an almost histological image resolution. This study examined the feasibility of X-PCI for high-resolution (sub-) micrometer analysis of different stages in tissue degeneration of human cartilage samples and compare it to histology and transmission electron microscopy. Ten 10%-formalin preserved healthy and moderately degenerated osteochondral samples, post-mortem extracted from human knee joints, were examined using four different X-PCI tomographic set-ups using synchrotron radiation the European Synchrotron Radiation Facility (France) and the Swiss Light Source (Switzerland). Volumetric datasets were acquired with voxel sizes between 0.7 × 0.7 × 0.7 and 0.1 × 0.1 × 0.1 µm 3 . Data were reconstructed by a filtered back-projection algorithm, post-processed by ImageJ, the WEKA machine learning pixel classification tool and VGStudio max. For correlation, osteochondral samples were processed for histology and transmission electron microscopy. X-PCI provides a three-dimensional visualization of healthy and moderately degenerated cartilage samples down to a (sub-)cellular level with good correlation to histologic and transmission electron microscopy images. X-PCI is able to resolve the three layers and the architectural organization of cartilage including changes in chondrocyte cell morphology, chondrocyte subgroup distribution and (re-)organization as well as its subtle matrix structures. X-PCI captures comprehensive cartilage tissue transformation in its environment and might serve as a tissue-preserving, staining-free and volumetric virtual histology tool for examining and chronicling cartilage behavior in basic research/laboratory experiments of cartilage disease evolution.

3D analysis↗
DOE OSTI2022

Panorama 360 (Final Report)

This final technical report from the lead institution, USC grant #DE-SC0012636, serves as the final technical report for collaborative institution UNC-CH grant #DE-SC0012390. The goal was to develop a repository and associated capabilities for data collection, ingestion, and analysis for a broad class of DOE applications that span experimental and simulation science workflows. In particular, this work focuses on workflows that include experimental data generation at DOE facilities. The main activities of Panorama 360 include the development of: (1) A distributed repository that stores different types of workflow execution data (e.g., point and time series performance traces at fine- and coarse-grained levels); (2) A set of open-source data capture, curation, and publishing tools fully integrated with a state-of-the-art workflow management system that automates data ingestion to the repository and enables users to discover, query, and process data from the repository; (3) A set of analysis algorithms and machine learning based tools to perform analysis and characterization of the gathered data, which can be used to detect anomalous performance or system faults; and (4) Best practices and recommendations for workflow evaluation, analysis, execution, and architectures.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Geometric Measures of Trustworthiness for Machine Learning Predictions

his report details the findings from the research and investigation of Geometric Measures of Trustworthiness for Machine Learning Predictions. We explored the trustworthiness of machine learning (ML) models’ predictions using geometric measures to quantify the similarity of a query point with the training data. Predictive uncertainty in ML can originate from at least three sources: (1) Model uncertainty, which represents the uncertainty in model form (e.g. decision tree, vs neural network) and estimating the model parameters from the training data, (2) Data uncertainty, which represents the natural complexities of the data such as class overlap and inherent noise, and (3) Distributional uncertainty, which represents the mismatch between the training and operational distributions. The proposed measures focus on measuring and explaining the data and distributional uncertainties by measuring the relationships of operational data with the training data.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2026

Dehydration-Driven Ion Aggregation and the Onset of Gelation in ZnCl2 Solution

A minimal model of ionic aggregation in concentrated ZnCl2 is developed, guided by molecular dynamics simulations with a machine-learned potential. It explicitly incorporates solvent-site depletion, correlated chloride binding, and allows for loops within Zn–Cl clusters. Dehydration drives two coordination-controlled structural changes: a crossover at Z=2 from predominantly isolated Zn-containing species to Cl-bridged clusters and the onset of gelation near Z≈3. The model reproduces the concentration-dependent trends observed in the molecular dynamics simulations with two fitted parameters, while the cluster-size distribution at the highest concentration is consistent with three-dimensional percolation scaling over the accessible range of cluster sizes.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2024

On the connection between least squares, regularization, and classical shadows

Classical shadows (CS) offer a resource-efficient means to estimate quantum observables, circumventing the need for exhaustive state tomography. Here, we clarify and explore the connection between CS techniques and least squares (LS) and regularized least squares (RLS) methods commonly used in machine learning and data analysis. By formal identification of LS and RLS ``shadows'' completely analogous to those in CS---namely, point estimators calculated from the empirical frequencies of single measurements---we show that both RLS and CS can be viewed as regularizers for the underdetermined regime, replacing the pseudoinverse with invertible alternatives. Through numerical simulations, we evaluate RLS and CS from three distinct angles: the tradeoff in bias and variance, mismatch between the expected and actual measurement distributions, and the interplay between the number of measurements and number of shots per measurement. Compared to CS, RLS attains lower variance at the expense of bias, is robust to distribution mismatch, and is more sensitive to the number of shots for a fixed number of state copies---differences that can be understood from the distinct approaches taken to regularization. Conceptually, our integration of LS, RLS, and CS under a unifying ``shadow'' umbrella aids in advancing the overall picture of CS techniques, while practically our results highlight the tradeoffs intrinsic to these measurement approaches, illuminating the circumstances under which either RLS or CS would be preferred, such as unverified randomness for the former or unbiased estimation for the latter.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗