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Site Selection for Mars Exopaleontology in 2001

The microbial fossil record encompasses a wide range of information, including cellular remains, stromatolites, biofabrics, trace fossils, biominerals and chemofossils. The preservation of fossils is strongly influenced by the physical, chemical and biological factors of the environment which, acting together, ultimately determine the types of information that will be captured and retained in the rock record. The critical factor in assessing the suitability of a site for a microbial fossil record is the paleoenvironment. The reconstruction of ancient sedimentary environments usually requires the integration of a wide variety of geological information, including the shape, geometry and internal structure of sedimentary deposits, their mineralogy, and geochemistry. For Mars, much of our knowledge about past environments is based on orbital imaging of geomorphic features. This evidence provides an important context and starting point for site selection. However, our knowledge of the martian surface is quite limited, and a major goal of the upcoming exploration effort is to reconstruct the history of Martian volatiles, climate, and hydrology as a context for the exploration for past or present life. Mineralogical mapping from orbit will be an important key in this effort. In exploring for evidence of past life, terrestrial experience suggests that the long-term preservation of biological information as fossils occurs under a fairly narrow range of geological conditions that are well known to paleontologists (1). In detrital sedimentary systems, microbial fossilization is favored by rapid burial in fine-grained, clay-rich sediments. In chemical sedimentary systems, preservation is enhanced by rapid entombment in fine-grained chemical precipitates. For long term preservation, host rocks must be composed of stable minerals that resist chemical weathering, and which form an impermeable matrix and closed chemical system that can protect biosignatures from alteration during subsequent diagenetic change or metamorphism. In this context, host rocks composed of highly ordered, chemically-stable mineral phases, like silica (forming cherts) or phosphate (forming phosphorites), are especially favored. Such lithologies tend to have very long crustal residence times and (along with carbonates and shales), are the most common host rocks for the Precambrian microfossil record on Earth. If we assume that a subsurface hydrosphere has been present throughout martian history, then life could have originated there at any time, perhaps emerging at the surface periodically when climate changes, induced by external forcing or endogenous processes (e.g. volcanism), allowed liquid water to exist at the surface. The recent discovery of subsurface chemolithoautotrophic organisms which are capable of synthesizing organic substrates from C02 and H2 liberated from the aqueous weathering of basalt, is especially. relevant as a model for martian life. While a subsurface habitable zone may yet exist on Mars, access to such environments will likely require drilling to depths of several kilometers. Given the technological challenge of deep drilling, this is unlikely to occur prior to human missions. So, even if there is extant life on Mars today in subsurface habitats, it may be much easier to find its fossil counterparts in ancient deposits exposed at the surface. In exploring for a fossil record in subsurface environments on Mars there are several geological situations that may provide access to the appropriate materials. These include 1) ejecta from impact craters, 2) talus slopes, debris flows or alluvial fans developed below the walls of deep canyons, and 3) the deposits of outflood channels. Examples of aqueous mineral deposits of formed in subsurface environments that could harbor a microbial fossil record include such things as cements in detrital sedimentary rocks, low temperature diagenetic minerals deposited in veins, or filling vesicles in volcanic rocks, and hydrothermal deposits formed below the upper temperature limit for life (about 160 degrees C). There are many sites within the present latitudinal constraints for the 2001 mission (15 deg S to 30 deg N) that meet these requirements. But the practical problem with these kinds of deposits is that they tend to be disseminated, making up only a small percentage of a host rock. Even with mineralogical information provided by the Thermal Emission Spectrometer (TES) presently in orbit around Mars, predicting their occurrence ahead of time may be quite difficult. The deposits of surficial aqueous sedimentary systems are likely to provide the largest targets for site selection in 2001. Of these, the deposits of hydrothermal systems (subaerial and subaqueous thermal springs) have been discussed previously. It is likely that hydrothermal systems were widespread on Mars early in its history and a number of common geo-tectonic settings on Mars are likely to have hosted hydrothermal activity. Most of these are represented within the latitudinal constraints presently identified for 2001. However, the deposits of surface spring systems are likely to be difficult to find as well. On Earth, exposure areas for hydrothermal spring mounds are typically a few square kms, less than a single TES pixel. But such deposits may be quite abundant within some volcanic terrains, It is estimated, for example, that between 15-20% of the floor of Yellowstone caldera is covered by thermal spring deposits. In such abundances, subaerial sinters could well be detected by TES. Where exposed, the shallow subsurface portions of these systems may be quite a lot larger (perhaps tens of square kms), although (as noted above) mineralization may be finely disseminated in the basement rock, making remote detection more difficult. Paleolake Basins. There are a large number of potential paleolake basins on Mars (inclusive of impact craters and volcanic calderas) that have been previously identified using Viking images. Most of these lie in the southern highlands beyond the l5 deg S constraint for 2001. However, deposits of paleolakes may offer the largest and most easily identified exopaleontological targets from orbit. Based on a variety of arguments, some workers have suggested that there was once an ancient ocean on the northern plains, and some sites of interest (potential shoreline terraces) fall within the 30 deg N constraint. From a paleontological standpoint the most interesting places of this type are terminal paleolake basins which are likely to have been both saline and alkaline. Models by Schaefer suggest such environments could be widespread on Mars. The conditions in terminal lake basin settings favor widespread chemical sedimentation, an important condition for microbial fossilization. Important lithological targets for a microbial fossil record in terminal lake basins include spring-deposited carbonates, shoreline cements, a wide variety of evaporite minerals and fine-grained detrital sediments including shales, marls, and water-lain volcanic ash deposits. In developing a strategy to explore for ancient hydrothermal deposits on Mars, we can learn from the methods that have been developed by explorationists to explore for economic mineral deposits on Earth. Due to their simple mineralogy, hydrothermal deposits can often be detected using remote sensing methods. Common thermal spring mineral assemblages include silica, carbonate, and various metallic oxides and sulfides. But there are also a number of diagnostic silicate minerals, including clays, formed by the hydrothermal alteration of country rocks. These hydrothermal minerals have characteristic spectral signatures that could be detected from Mars orbit using high resolution infrared remote sensing methods. In playa lake settings, evaporite deposits often form a predictable "bull's eye" pattern with carbonates being deposited in marginal basin areas, and sulfates and halides occurring progressively more basinward. The floors of some impact craters on Mars, such as "White Rock" and Bequeral Crater (see Oxia Palus NE, Site 148), have floor deposits that could be evaporites, inclusive of carbonates. Evaporite minerals possess characteristic spectral signatures in the infrared and could similarly be identified from Mars orbit using high resolution remote sensing methods. Clearly, utilization of TES data will be important for optimizing site selection for Exopaleontology, and every effort should be made to benefit from that data before a final decision is made.

Farmer, Jack↗

Commercial Space with Technology Maturation

To provide affordable space transportation we must be capable of using common fixed assets and the infrastructure for multiple purposes simultaneously. The Space Shuttle was operated for thirty years, but was not able to establish an effective continuous improvement program because of the high risk to the crew on every mission. An unmanned capability is needed to provide an acceptable risk to the primary mission. This paper is intended to present a case where a commercial space venture could share the large fixed cost of operating the infrastructure with the government while the government provides new advanced technology that is focused on reduced operating cost to the common launch transportation system. A conceivable commercial space venture could provide educational entertainment for the country's youth that would stimulate their interest in the science, technology, engineering, and mathematics (STEM) through access at entertainment parks or the existing Space Visitor Centers. The paper uses this example to demonstrate how growing public-private space market demand will re-orient space transportation industry priorities in flight and ground system design and technology development, and how the infrastructure is used and shared.

McCleskey, Carey M.↗

The NASA Ames Aerothermodynamics Branch

The Ames Aerothermodynamics branch provides NASA and the country an integrated modeling, simulation, and test capability in the areas of aerothermodynamics, shock layer radiation, and entry system design. With roots dating back to the founding of Ames in the 1940s, the branch has contributed to every major NASA mission with an atmospheric entry component and actively partners with commercial space companies to assist with entry system development and technology transfer. This presentation provides a brief overview of the branch, its core competencies, and recent accomplishments.

Jeffrey Hill↗

Globally Gridded Groundwater Extraction Volumes and Costs under Six Depletion and Ponded Depth Targets

This repository contains simulated outputs from superwell – a hydro-economic tool for long-term assessment of groundwater cost and supply – providing globally gridded groundwater extractable volumes and associated unit costs ($/km³) for accessible groundwater production, based on a variety of user-defined depletion and ponded depth scenarios. Key model documentation: Niazi, H., Ferencz, S. B., Graham, N. T., Yoon, J., Wild, T. B., Hejazi, M., Watson, D. J., & Vernon, C. R. (2025). Long-term hydro-economic analysis tool for evaluating global groundwater cost and supply: Superwell v1.1. Geoscientific Model Development, 18(5), 1737-1767. https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1737-2025 Find the source code of the superwell model on GitHub: https://github.com/JGCRI/superwell Repository Overview Main output: superwell_outputs.7z contains 6 files (4.5 GB) named as superwell_py_deep_all_0.*PD_0.*DL.csv. These files present superwell outputs of global groundwater extraction volumes and cost estimates on a 0.5° scale for six scenarios with different Ponded Depth (PD; 0.3 and 0.6 m) and Depletion Limit (DL; 5%, 25%, and 40% of available volume) targets over the entire pumping lifetime of a grid cell superwell_py_deep_all_0.3PD_0.25DL_sample_100.csv contains superwell outputs for 100 data points sampled to match the global inputs' distribution superwell_py_deep_all_0.3PD_0.25DL_Grid_72548.csv contains superwell output for a single grid cell concept_v5.png provides an overview of the superwell workflow Outputs Description year_number: year of pumping depletion_limit: set depletion limit (DL) as a volume fraction of total available groundwater Mappings: continent, country, gcam_basin_id, Basin_long_name, grid_id: geographic identifiers and basin information Inputs: grid_area (km²): area of the grid cell whyclass: hydrogeological classification of the aquifer permeability (m/day), porosity (%), total_thickness (m), depth_to_water (m): aquifer properties. The geo-processed input data has been published separately: https://doi.org/10.57931/2307831 Model outputs: orig_aqfr_sat_thickness (m), aqfr_sat_thickness (m): original and remaining/instantaneous saturated thickness of the aquifer hydraulic_conductivity (m/day), transmissivity (m²/day): hydraulic properties of the aquifer radius_of_influence (m), areal_extent (km²): well radius and area of influence from the center of the well number_of_wells (-): number of wells in a grid cell determined by a ratio of well area and grid area max_drawdown (m), drawdown (m), drawdown_interference (m): well and aquifer drawdown during extraction total_head (m): total lift for the groundwater (depth to water plus drawdown) total_well_length (m): total depth of wells drilled well_yield (m³/day): pumping rate or well yield power (kW), energy (kWh): power and energy required for pumping groundwater Volume Outputs: volume_produced_perwell (m³), cumulative_vol_produced_perwell (m³): production volume metrics per well volume_produced_allwells (m³), cumulative_vol_produced_allwells (m³): aggregate extraction volumes for all wells in a grid cell available_volume (m³): available groundwater in storage for the grid cell as determined by aquifer properties depleted_vol_fraction: fraction of total volume pumped over available volumes in a grid cell (same as depletion limit) Cost Outputs: well_installation_cost ($): well installation cost based on the hydrogeological complexity of the aquifer annual_capital_cost, maintenance_cost, nonenergy_cost ($): nonenergy costs energy_cost_rate ($/kWh): electricity rate energy_cost ($): energy cost of pumping groundwater total_cost_perwell ($), total_cost_allwells ($): total annual energy and non-energy cost for each and all wells in a grid cell a unit_cost ($/m³), unit_cost_per_km3 ($/km³), unit_cost_per_acreft ($/acre-ft): total cost of pumping a unit of groundwater, indicated for different spatial units Key Resources Model documentation: Niazi, H., Ferencz, S., Graham, N., Yoon, J., Wild, T., Hejazi, M., Watson, D., & Vernon, C. (2024; In-prep). Long-term Hydro-economic Assessment Tool for Evaluating Global Groundwater Cost and Supply: Superwell v1. Geoscientific Model Development. Input data: Niazi, H., Watson, D., Hejazi, M., Yonkofski, C., Ferencz, S., Vernon, C., Graham, N., Wild, T., & Yoon, J. (2024). Global Geo-processed Data of Aquifer Properties by 0.5° Grid, Country and Water Basins. MSD-LIVE Data repository. https://doi.org/10.57931/2307831 superwell source code: https://github.com/JGCRI/superwell Cite as Niazi, H., Ferencz, S., Yoon, J., Graham, N., Wild, T., Hejazi, M., Watson, D., & Vernon, C. (2024). Globally Gridded Groundwater Extraction Volumes and Costs under Six Depletion and Ponded Depth Targets. MSD-LIVE Data repository. https://doi.org/10.57931/2307832 Contact Reach out to Hassan Niazi or Stephen Ferencz or open an issue in the superwell repository for questions or suggestions.

Earth Systems↗

Acquiring and disseminating unpublished economic and social development materials in Africa: The case of the National Institute of Development Research and Documentation University of Botswana

Generally in Africa, the identification and acquisition of both published and unpublished documents can be an extremely difficult task due, among other factors, to the unsatisfactory state of the publishing industry and the poor state of bibliographic control. This paper analyzes the various problems involved in the acquisition of documents in Africa and illustrates them with the author's personal experience as an acquisitions librarian working on an information project which necessitated travel to about 15 African countries.

Kwafo-Akoto, Kate↗

Global Geo-processed Data of Aquifer Properties by 0.5° Grid, Country and Water Basins

This repository of global hydrogeologic datasets contains aquifer properties on 0.5° scale, including depth to groundwater (Fan et al., 2013), aquifer thickness (de Graaf et al., 2015), WHYMap aquifer classes (Richts et al., 2011), recharge (Döll and Fiedler, 2008; Gleeson et al., 2016), lakes (Messager et al., 2016), porosity and permeability (Gleeson et al., 2014), digitized and geo-processed from their respective sources. Globally gridded aquifer properties could be used independently to estimate global groundwater availability or used as critical inputs to the superwell model to simulate groundwater extraction and provide estimates of pumped volumes and unit costs under user-specific scenarios. Key resources related to this data are: Niazi, H., Ferencz, S. B., Graham, N. T., Yoon, J., Wild, T. B., Hejazi, M., Watson, D. J., & Vernon, C. R. (2025). Long-term hydro-economic analysis tool for evaluating global groundwater cost and supply: Superwell v1.1. Geoscientific Model Development, 18(5), 1737-1767. https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1737-2025 superwell model repository which uses this data to simulate groundwater extraction and provides estimates of the global extractable volumes and unit-costs ($/km3) of accessible groundwater production under user-specified extraction scenarios. Repository Overview Main output: aquifer_properties_rec.csv contains all processed outputs, including aquifer properties like porosity, permeability, recharge, lake areas, aquifer thickness, and depth to groundwater. shapefiles.zip: contains all digitized GIS databases and shapefile for all aquifer properties prep_inputs.R and prep_inputs_recharge_lakes.R: R scripts that process the shapefiles to produce the aquifer_properties_rec.csv file plot_inputs.R: R script for plotting the maps and conducting preliminary analysis on the available groundwater volume basin_to_country_mapping.csv, basin_country_region_mapping.csv and continent_county_mapping.csv provide the mapping between continents, 32 energy-economic macro regions, countries, and water basins for post-processing aquifer_properties_rec.csv Maps: Each map visualizes the spatial distribution of one of the aquifer properties across the globe map_in_Porosity.png map_in_Permeability.png map_in_Aquifer_thickness.png map_in_Depth_to_water.png map_in_Recharge.png map_in_Grid_area_km.png map_in_Lake_area_km.png map_in_WHYClass.png Sample inputs sample_inputs.py: this script samples inputs from the aquifer_properties_rec dataset, ensuring the sampled and original inputs maintain the same distributions sampled_data_100.csv contains 100 sampled data points and sampled_data_100.png compares their distributions Dataset Overview The main outputs are consolidated in a comprehensive aquifer_properties_rec.csv file and include the following fields: GridCellID: Unique identifier for each (roughly 0.5°) grid cell Continent: Continent name Country: Country name GCAM_basin_ID: Identifier for GCAM hydrologic basin Basin_long_name: Full name of the basin WHYClass: Hydrogeologic classification based on WHYMap aquifer classes (Richts et al., 2011) Porosity: Soil porosity (%) (Gleeson et al., 2014) Permeability: Soil permeability (in square meters; Gleeson et al., 2014) Aquifer_thickness: Thickness of the aquifer (in meters; de Graaf et al., 2015) Depth_to_water: Depth to groundwater (in meters; Fan et al., 2013) Recharge: long-term annual averaged recharge rates (in m/yr; Döll and Fiedler, 2008; Gleeson et al., 2016) Grid_area: Area of the grid cell (in square meters) Lakes_area: Area of inland lakes (in square meters; Messager et al., 2016) Key References The datasets are digitized versions of global hydrogeologic properties from the following key literature sources: Depth to Groundwater: Fan, Y., Li, H., & Miguez-Macho, G. (2013). Global Patterns of Groundwater Table Depth. Science, 339(6122), 940-943. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1229881 Aquifer Thickness: de Graaf, I. E. M., Sutanudjaja, E. H., van Beek, L. P. H., & Bierkens, M. F. P. (2015). A high-resolution global-scale groundwater model. Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19(2), 823-837. https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-823-2015 Porosity and Permeability: Gleeson, T., Moosdorf, N., Hartmann, J., & van Beek, L. P. H. (2014). A glimpse beneath earth's surface: GLobal HYdrogeology MaPS (GLHYMPS) of permeability and porosity. Geophysical Research Letters, 41(11), 3891-3898. https://doi.org/10.1002/2014GL059856 Aquifer classes: Richts, A., Struckmeier, W. F., & Zaepke, M. (2011). WHYMAP and the Groundwater Resources Map of the World 1:25,000,000. In J. A. A. Jones (Ed.), Sustaining Groundwater Resources: A Critical Element in the Global Water Crisis (pp. 159-173). Springer Netherlands. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-90-481-3426-7_10 Recharge: Döll, P., & Fiedler, K. (2008). Global-scale modeling of groundwater recharge. Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 12(3), 863-885. https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-12-863-2008; Gleeson, T., Befus, K. M., Jasechko, S., Luijendijk, E., & Cardenas, M. B. (2016). The global volume and distribution of modern groundwater. Nature Geoscience, 9(2), 161-167. https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo2590 Inland Lakes: Messager, M. L., Lehner, B., Grill, G., Nedeva, I., & Schmitt, O. (2016). Estimating the volume and age of water stored in global lakes using a geo-statistical approach. Nature Communications, 7(1), 13603. https://doi.org/10.1038/ncomms13603 Cite as Niazi, H., Watson, D., Hejazi, M., Yonkofski, C., Ferencz, S., Vernon, C., Graham, N., Wild, T., & Yoon, J. (2024). Global Geo-processed Data of Aquifer Properties by 0.5° Grid, Country and Water Basins. MultiSector Dynamics-Living, Intuitive, Value-adding, Environment. https://doi.org/10.57931/2484226 Contact Reach out to Hassan Niazi or open an issue in the superwell repository for questions or suggestions.

aquifer thickness↗

Zirconium-Based Metal–Organic Frameworks as Reusable Antibacterial Peroxide Carriers for Protective Textiles

Countries around the world have sought efficient protective coverings, including masks, gowns, and fabrics, for air purification to protect people against infectious diseases. However, the demand for significant quantities of disposable protective textiles poses a global challenge, especially when the production of protective gear is suspended due to COVID-19 outbreaks in factories and along supply lines. Therefore, the development of reusable, self-decontaminating protective masks and coverings loaded with disinfectants, such as antibacterial peroxide species, presents an attractive strategy to fight against bacteria risks. In this work, we incorporated persulfate ions, which serve as stable active peroxide precursors, into two porous zirconium-based metal–organic frameworks (Zr-MOFs), enabling these materials to act as regenerable reservoirs for the slow release of biocidal hydrogen peroxide upon hydrolysis by contact with humid air. Single-crystal X-ray diffraction studies reveal the two different coordination motifs for the persulfate ions, which can either bridge between two adjacent nodes or coordinate to a single node depending on both the node connectivity and the distances between open metal sites. The active peroxide precursors within the porous Zr-MOF carriers are stable during storage and easily regenerated once consumed. Importantly, these persulfate-loaded Zr-MOFs can be integrated onto textiles using a facile aqueous in-situ growth procedure, and these composites demonstrate potent and reusable biocidal activity against both Gram-negative bacteria and Gram-positive bacteria. Altogether, this approach presents a viable strategy to develop robust protective textiles capable of rapidly deactivating pathogens.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Flexible visualization of a 3rd party Intrusion Prevention (Security) tool: A use case with the ELK stack

A difficult aspect of cyber security is the ability to achieve automated real time intrusion prevention across various sets of systems. To this extent, several companies are offering comprehensive solutions that leverage an "accuracy of scale" and moving much of the intelligence and detection on the Cloud, relying on an ever-growing set of data and analytics to increase decision accuracy. Often, they provide tools to visualize the decision workflows in attack prevention (as well as tune the algorithm) but those solutions are not always practical as companies see the problem as "global" that is, from a unified Cyber-security standpoint. However, a key to a successful Cyber-security program is transparency and trust: from an experimental team viewpoint, this specifically means having the ability to immediately see what and from where, who has been blocked and being able to inform the community in case of a revoked access without the need for filing a "ticket" (that may eventually be answered) – in other words, rapid response to their user-base is essential but solutions targeting "sub-groups" in an organization are not often available. We have come up with a versatile solution leveraging the ELK stack (Elasticsearch, Logstash, & Kibana) and an IPS (Intrusion Prevention System) based WAF (Web Application Firewall) from Signal Sciences. Signal Science allows the streaming of detailed logs in a Logstash format suitable for custom solutions for visualization. By combining these two tools, we have strengthened our security posture and enabled individual experiments to monitor their own traffic. Specifically, the IPS WAF provides unique data such as country of origin, protocol, response code, source IP, and paths accessed. In this contribution, we will show how we engineered a visualization solution so experiment groups could access a dashboard with predefined graphs but also, where they can create individual customizable dashboards used to display blocked traffic and troubleshoot latency issues. We will discuss the details and procedures for developing and configuring these tools and how it benefits cyber security postures across our scientific based environment.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Space transportation alternatives for large space programs: The International Space University Summer Session, 1992

In 1992, the International Space University (ISU) held its Summer Session in Kitakyushu, Japan. This paper summarizes and expands upon some aspects of space solar power and space transportation that were considered during that session. The issues discussed in this paper are the result of a 10-week study by the Space Solar Power Program design project members and the Space Transportation Group to investigate new paradigms in space propulsion and how those paradigms might reduce the costs for large space programs. The program plan was to place a series of power satellites in Earth orbit. Several designs were studied where many kW, MW, or GW of power would be transmitted to Earth or to other spacecraft in orbit. During the summer session, a space solar power system was also detailed and analyzed. A high-cost space transportation program is potentially the most crippling barrier to such a space power program. At ISU, the focus of the study was to foster and develop some of the new paradigms that may eliminate the barriers to low cost for space exploration and exploitation. Many international and technical aspects of a large multinational program were studied. Environmental safety, space construction and maintenance, legal and policy issues of frequency allocation, technology transfer and control and many other areas were addressed. Over 120 students from 29 countries participated in this summer session. The results discussed in this paper, therefore, represent the efforts of many nations.

Palaszewski, Bryan A.↗

Downscaled and Bias-Adjusted Climate Projections for Afghanistan

Climate change is already having devastating impacts on human communities and natural landscapes, from increasing severity and frequency of natural disasters to drought and desertification that degrade both natural ecosystems and human livelihoods. However, the impacts of climate change are not evenly distributed across the world—some places are at far greater risk than others. These highly vulnerable places should be a higher priority for investments and interventions to help people and nature adapt to changing climatic conditions. Afghanistan is one of the most at-risk countries from climate change. Within the country, the river basins are particularly sensitive as climate change will dramatically alter their water regimes upon which ecosystems and a vast proportion of the Afghan population and millions of people in neighbouring countries rely. As part of an EU-funded project implemented by the Wildlife Conservation Society (WCS), WCS conducted a vulnerability assessment for the Amu Darya River Basin that drains c. 14% of Afghanistan’s land area and is critically important for supporting both people and sensitive biodiversity (Elsen et al., 2023). Central to the vulnerability assessment was the development of downscaled and bias-adjusted climate projections, produced by the Center for Climate Systems Research (CCSR)1. The climate projections were produced at a much higher resolution (1 km2) than were otherwise available and were tailored to the local environment.

climate projections↗

Urban Expansion and Climate Change: Investigating the Impact of Future Scenarios on Child Health

Cities in the poorest countries of the world are rapidly urbanizing. In fact, some of the fastest growing cities on the planet are found in sub-Saharan Africa. Many people benefit from economic, educational, and health opportunities that exist in cities and, as a result, city-dwellers often face less risk of poverty and disease in the context of climate change than their rural-dwelling counterparts. However, rapid urbanization, resulting from a large and constant influx of migrants from rural areas, can put pressure on existing social, economic, and health systems. For poor cities, they face a challenge to support existing residents while also expanding to support the needs of migrants, many of whom are deeply impoverished. Additionally, in a climate change, linked to heat waves, floods, droughts, and other related events, can add stress to complex urban food, health, hygiene, and housing systems. In this project we investigate urban expansion, climate change, and health in four major African cities – Ouagadougou, Addis Ababa, Nairobi, and Kigali. We consider different scenarios of urban expansion using historic and contemporary maps of urban extent, combined with climate (temperature, rainfall, and vegetation) and land cover combined with spatially referenced health information from the Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) to investigate the relationships between urban dwelling, climate change and health. Temperature and rainfall scenarios are developed under different urban land use futures (expanding agricultural areas versus reducing agricultural areas) to examine the ways that individual health outcomes related to malnutrition vary under different potential future conditions. Preliminary results of the research highlight the importance of temperature for health, in particular, and suggest that while urban conditions related to urban infrastructure (e.g., educational attainment, electricity access, and improved hygiene) cannot reduce health risks to counter the impacts of high temperatures and reduced agricultural land. As cities in poor countries urbanize, city-dwellers face unique risks when droughts, heat waves, and other extreme weather events occur. In this project we explore urban land use conditions, climate conditions and health using future scenarios. Specifically we evaluate health outcomes in the future while considering different land use practices, urban expansion, temperature, and rainfall conditions to identify individual-level risk and protective factors. We compare results across four major cities in sub Saharan Africa.

Public Health↗

Policy and Regulatory Environment for Utility-Scale Energy Storage: Bangladesh

Bangladesh has experienced significant economic growth and poverty reduction over the past several decades. Recognizing the central role electricity plays in economic development, the Government of Bangladesh (GOB) has established policies to accelerate the growth of the electric power sector. The Bangladesh power grid is transforming into one marked by declining reliance on domestic natural gas reserves and oil-based rental power plants, increasing renewable energy contribution, and shifting demand patterns. The GOB is now reconsidering its prior plans to increase the share of coal capacity in the generation mix to meet demand, shifting its focus instead to electricity imports from neighboring countries, nuclear generation, liquified natural gas imports, and domestic renewable resources such as wind and solar. However, investments in the transmission and distribution system, as well as ancillary services, have not kept pace with investments in generation resources over the past decade. Thus, Bangladesh electricity consumers still experience outages and poor power quality despite adequate installed capacity. On the demand side, population growth and industrialization have fueled steady growth in electricity consumption as efforts to expand access to electricity enabled near-universal electricity access by mid-2020. The combined changes in the mix of generation resources and patterns of electricity demand present new challenges and opportunities in operating and maintaining a reliable power system. Energy storage has the potential to help meet these challenges and accelerate Bangladesh’s energy transition. Declining costs for some energy storage technologies make them increasingly cost-effective solutions to provide a wide range of grid services. Previous analyses of energy storage in the region have identified several potential applications for storage at the bulk system level, including energy arbitrage, ancillary services, and transmission network support. The potential for storage to meet these needs depends on many factors, including physical characteristics of the power system and the policy and regulatory environments in which these energy storage assets would operate. This report applies an Energy Storage Readiness Assessment the National Renewable Energy Laboratory developed for policy makers and regulators to identify priority areas of focus as they continue to develop the appropriate suite of policies, programs, and regulations to enable storage deployment. This assessment uses a simple evaluation scheme to identify the barriers and opportunities for utility-scale energy storage within Bangladesh’s policy and regulatory environment.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

A modified Susceptible-Infected-Recovered model for observed under-reported incidence data

Fitting Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) models to incidence data is problematic when not all infected individuals are reported. Assuming an underlying SIR model with general but known distribution for the time to recovery, this paper derives the implied differential-integral equations for observed incidence data when a fixed fraction of newly infected individuals are not observed. The parameters of the resulting system of differential equations are identifiable. Using these differential equations, we develop a stochastic model for the conditional distribution of current disease incidence given the entire past history of reported cases. We estimate the model parameters using Bayesian Markov Chain Monte-Carlo sampling of the posterior distribution. We use our model to estimate the transmission rate and fraction of asymptomatic individuals for the current Coronavirus 2019 outbreak in eight American Countries: the United States of America, Brazil, Mexico, Argentina, Chile, Colombia, Peru, and Panama, from January 2020 to May 2021. Our analysis reveals that the fraction of reported cases varies across all countries. For example, the reported incidence fraction for the United States of America varies from 0.3 to 0.6, while for Brazil it varies from 0.2 to 0.4.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Using Reanalysis in Crop Monitoring and Forecasting Systems

Weather observations are essential for crop monitoring and forecasting but they are not always available and in some cases they have limited spatial representativeness. Thus, reanalyses represent an alternative source of information to be explored. In this study, we assess the feasibility of reanalysis-based crop monitoring and forecasting by using the system developed and maintained by the European Commission- Joint Research Centre, its gridded daily meteorological observations, the biased-corrected reanalysis AgMERRA and the ERA-Interim reanalysis. We focus on Europe and on two crops, wheat and maize, in the period 1980-2010 under potential and water-imited conditions. In terms of inter-annual yield correlation at the country scale, the reanalysis-driven systems show a very good performance for both wheat and maize (with correlation values higher than 0.6 in almost all EU28 countries) when compared to the observations-driven system. However, significant yield biases affect both crops. All simulations show similar correlations with respect to the FAO reported yield time series. These findings support the integration of reanalyses in current crop monitoring and forecasting systems and point to the emerging opportunities linked to the coming availability of higher-resolution reanalysis updated at near real time.

Reanalysis↗

Polar Bear™ – Innovative Capture of Storage Tank Vapors

Polar Bear™ is a patented technology developed by the Energy & Environmental Research Center (EERC) to capture storage tank vapors and eliminate methane emissions from upstream oil- and gas-producing facilities. Sparked by early commercial investment, the EERC licensed the technology and extended the intellectual property to storage tanks. Polar Bear™ is uniquely engineered and adapted to individual lower-producing facilities where there is otherwise no economic alternative for capturing tank vapors. A high number of small producing oil and gas wells are distributed across the country. The aggregate contributes to a significant volume of emissions. Because of the lack of economy of scale, gas volumes from these facilities are typically not recovered and contribute to methane emissions. Polar Bear™ provides a fit-for-purpose compression solution that addresses cost by reducing complexity with respect to conventional vapor recovery units and eliminating oil changes. Unique to Polar Bear™ is the capability to separate oxygenated gas from storage tank vapors. Storage tanks are designed to “breathe,” allowing gas to enter and escape during internal level and temperature changes. This infiltration of air into the tank headspace imparts undesirable oxygen content with respect to pipeline gathering. Polar Bear™ separates the vapor stream, allowing oxygen-rich gas to be used as fuel on-site while recovering the liquids-rich portion of the gas where oxygen content is minimized. A prototype system was tested to verify process models, evaluate operational performance, and advance the technology readiness level from 5 to 6. Results provide a good match between experimental measurements and process models, indicating the models are useful for future scale-up and field design. Various mixtures of nitrogen and liquefied petroleum gas were tested to understand the mass balance of nitrogen and how it relates to the potential control of oxygen content. Findings indicate that less than 2000 ppm of oxygen is likely to remain in the liquid portion of the gas in field applications. The research and development prepare the technology for field implementation to eliminate routine and fugitive methane emissions from storage tanks.

02 PETROLEUM↗

Long-Term Climatic Variations in the Almati Oblast in Central Asian Kazakhstan: Correlations between National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Reanalysis II Results and Oblast Meteorological Station Data from 1949 to the Present

As part of a larger analysis of country systems described elsewhere, named a Crop Country Inventory, CCI, large variations in annual crop yield for selected climate sensitive agricultural regions or sub-regions within a country have been studied over extended periods in decades. These climate sensitive regions, principally responsible for large annual variations in an entire country s crop production, generally are characterized by distinctive patterns of atmospheric circulation and synoptic processes that result in large seasonal fluctuations in temperature, precipitation and soil moisture as well as other climate properties. The immediate region of interest is drought prone Kazakhstan in Central Asia, part of the Former Soviet Union, FSU. As a partial validation test in a dry southern region of Kazakhstan, the Almati Oblast was chosen. The Almati Oblast, a sub-region of Kazakhstan located in its southeast corner, is one of 14 oblasts within the Republic of Kazahstan. The climate data set used to characterize this region was taken from the results of the current maturely developed Global Climate Model, GCM. In this paper, the GCM results have been compared to the meteorological station data at the station locations, over various periods. If the empirical correlation of the data sets from both the GCM and station data is sufficiently significant, this would validate the use of the superior GCM profile mapping and integration for the climatic characterization of a sub-region. Precipitation values interpolated from NCEP Reanalysis II data, a global climate database spanning over 5 decades since 1949, have been statistically correlated with monthly-averaged station data from 1949 through 1993, and with daily station data from April through August, 1990 for the Almati Oblast in Kazakhstan. The resultant correlation is significant, which implies that the methodology may be extended to different regions globally for Crop Country Inventory studies.

Welker, Jean E.↗

2024 OES-Environmental 2024 State of the Science Report, Chapter 11: Summary and Path Forward

The 2024 State of the Science report has brought together the most up-to-date information on potential environmental effects of marine renewable energy (MRE) development on marine animals, habitats, and ecosystem processes, as well as social and economic systems, using information that is publicly available as well as expert input. The report has been reviewed by over 56 experts. The reviewers provided in excess of one thousand comments during the drafting of the report that have been addressed in this version. The OES-Environmental country representatives from the 16 participating countries helped to scope the entirety of the report and provided valuable contributions to all chapters. The input from these contributors and reviewers has resulted in the most complete compendium of research and monitoring findings possible. While there is new and exciting research underway that should further illuminate the risks of MRE stressor-receptor interactions in the near future, suppositions and incomplete results from unpublished studies were not included in order to maintain the integrity, and decrease the uncertainty, of the messages in this report

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗

Development of a computer program data base of a navigation aid environment for simulated IFR flight and landing studies

A general aviation single pilot instrument flight rule simulation capability was developed. Problems experienced by single pilots flying in IFR conditions were investigated. The simulation required a three dimensional spatial navaid environment of a flight navigational area. A computer simulation of all the navigational aids plus 12 selected airports located in the Washington/Norfolk area was developed. All programmed locations in the list were referenced to a Cartesian coordinate system with the origin located at a specified airport's reference point. All navigational aids with their associated frequencies, call letters, locations, and orientations plus runways and true headings are included in the data base. The simulation included a TV displayed out-the-window visual scene of country and suburban terrain and a scaled model runway complex. Any of the programmed runways, with all its associated navaids, can be referenced to a runway on the airport in this visual scene. This allows a simulation of a full mission scenario including breakout and landing.

Bergeron, H. P.↗