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At least 1,009 records · Page 56

Dynamics Explorer guest investigator

The research has focused on using the SAI auroral images as a high resolution auroral precipitation input to the USU global scale ionospheric model. From the global scale modeling viewpoint, these images offer unique spatial and temporal resolution since all prior studies have used empirical auroral models. These latter models are devoid of storm, substorm, or discrete oval features. The research focused on the problems in converting images to energy flux; using LAPU data to calibrate these energy fluxes; using the USU Time Dependent Ionospheric Model (TDIM) to look at the ionospheric consequences of this structure; and then using DE-2 in-situ observations to compare with the TDIM ionospheric parameters. In carrying out these studies, several additional investigations cropped up which were pursued to help meet the overall goals. The foremost difficulty in carrying out the TDIM modeling in conjunction with the high resolution DE auroral model was that of defining an appropriate ionospheric convection pattern. Under northward conditions this pattern is very complex. In order to study Theta aurora or in general northward IMF conditions, a new model was required. Hence, a study was completed to supply this new model to drive the TDIM as a function of the IMF. With the DE auroral model having adequate resolution to show structure on the 100's of km and all model electric fields being devoid of such structure, an investigation was pursued to find out the effects of structures in the electric field on the F-region.

Sojka, J. J.↗

Characterizing model uncertainties in simulated coast-to-offshore wind over the northeast U.S. using multi-platform measurements from the TCAP field campaign

Numerical weather prediction (NWP) models, such as the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, are widely used to provide estimates of the offshore wind energy resource owing to their large spatial coverage compared to available observations. Nevertheless, spatiotemporal distribution of model biases is highly dependent on factors including model configuration, location, and the interplay of multi-scale physical processes. Here, in this study, we focus on the characterization of model uncertainties in simulated coast-to-offshore winds over the northeast U.S., by varying sea surface temperature (SST) forcings, surface layer (SL) and planetary boundary layer (PBL) parameterizations, as well as identifying biases that may be directly passed from initial and boundary conditions. Multiple measurements, including aircraft data collected during the U.S. Department of Energy's Two-Column Aerosol Project (TCAP) experiment, are used to constrain the model results and facilitate quantitative comparisons. Our analysis indicates while SST forcing has notable impacts on simulated air temperature and moisture within PBL, the modeled winds are in general more sensitive to the choices of SL and PBL physics than to SST. The model’s forcing data not only controls the vertical dependence of wind speed errors, but also alters regional variability in wind speed’s spatial correlation. Bias comparisons between ERA5 reanalysis and ensemble simulations revealed significant similarity, particularly in wind speed biases during winter, underscoring their dependency on initial and boundary conditions. Coastal and offshore near-surface wind speed biases tend to exhibit much higher similarity in winter than in summer due to the presence of much stronger and more persistent synoptic wind conditions. This study highlights the importance of accurate atmospheric forcing and parameterization choices in improving wind forecasts and suggests the potential for extrapolating coastal wind biases to offshore locations, aiding wind energy forecasting and informing the Wind Forecast Improvement Project-3 (WFIP3).

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Why the observed spin evolution of older-than-solar-like stars might not require a dynamo mode change

ABSTRACT The spin evolution of main-sequence stars has long been of interest for basic stellar evolution, stellar ageing, stellar activity, and consequent influence on companion planets. Observations of older-than-solar late-type main-sequence stars have been interpreted to imply that a change from a dipole-dominated magnetic field to one with more prominent higher multipoles might be necessary to account for the data. The spin-down models that lead to this inference are essentially tuned to the Sun. Here, we take a different approach that considers individual stars as fixed points rather than just the Sun. We use a time-dependent theoretical model to solve for the spin evolution of low-mass main-sequence stars that includes a Parker-type wind and a time-evolving magnetic field coupled to the spin. Because the wind is exponentially sensitive to the stellar mass over radius and the coronal base temperature, the use of each observed star as a separate fixed point is more appropriate and, in turn, produces a set of solution curves that produces a solution envelope rather than a simple line. This envelope of solution curves, unlike a single line fit, is consistent with the data and does not unambiguously require a modal transition in the magnetic field to explain it.

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗

Investigating nonlinear magnetohydrodynamics in an optimized, reactor-scale quasi-axisymmetric stellarator

We use the new simulation capabilities of the extended-magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) code, M3D-C1, to investigate the nonlinear MHD properties of a reactor-scale quasisymmetric stellarator equilibrium. Our model captures the self-consistent evolution of the magnetic field, temperature, density, and flow profiles without imposing restrictions on the structure of the first. We include the effects of resistivity using a realistic temperature-dependent Spitzer model, along with a model for heat transport that captures the key physical characteristic, namely, strongly anisotropic diffusion in directions perpendicular and parallel to the magnetic field. We consider a quasi-axisymmetric, finite-pressure equilibrium that was optimized for self-consistent bootstrap current, quasi-symmetry, and energetic particle confinement. Our assessment finds that the equilibrium is highly unstable to interchange-like pressure-driven instabilities near the plasma edge. The initially unstable modes rapidly destabilize other modes in the direction of the N-fold rotational symmetry (toroidal, in this case). For this equilibrium, N = 2, meaning destabilization of a large number of even-numbered toroidal Fourier modes. Thus, field-periodicity is likely to be an important factor in the nonlinear MHD stability characteristics of optimized stellarators.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Multiphysics Simulations of MSRE with NEAMS Thermal Hydraulics Tools

This report documents the benchmarks being developed and simulations performed using tools and codes developed under the Nuclear Energy Advanced Modeling and Simulation (NEAMS) program, utilizing MSRE experimental data. In FY23, three main work scopes were investigated under the NEAMS MSR work package at ANL. The first scope investigated the Griffin-SAM coupling model for simulating the pump startup transient experiment of MSRE. The analyses start with a simple model (single-channel, single-lattice), gradually adding more details (multi-channel, full-core) into the model. The results show that the reactivity loss curve is very sensitive to the axial boundary conditions and the radial core discretization. The simple model can predict a similar reactivity trend as that of the more sophisticated model, which is likely due to error cancellation. Accurately modeling the axial boundary condition may further improve the reactivity trend but would require significant efforts to generate the mesh of the MSRE inlet and upper plenum. The core channel radial discretization for the Griffin-SAM coupled model also depends on the flow distribution. Given the complex geometry in the inlet plenum, the flow distribution needed to be calculated from CFD analysis, which was performed using the NekRS code. This analysis employed a MSRE CAD model developed by Copenhagen Atomics. The CAD model was disassembled to keep the inlet plenum region only, which was subsequently cleaned and modified so that the mesh generated is under the memory limit. The results are merged to a few radial regions to show that the flow rate is highest in the central region. This would be useful for future improvement of the Griffin-SAM coupling model of the MSRE core. The last task investigated is tritium transport modeling using the standalone SAM code. This task aimed to initiate the effort to demonstrate and validate the tritium transport model implemented in SAM. The preliminary investigation employed an MSRE model consisting of the primary loop. Three tritium transport pathways were examined including the retention in the graphite, the permeation through the HX tube wall, and the removal from the off-gas system. The results compare well with the MSRE data, but improvements are still needed on the initial conditions (i.e., the present state may not have reached equilibrium), the boundary conditions, the off-gas system modeling, and a better numerical strategy to reach the equilibrium state.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Interpretable Deep Learning for the Earth System with Fractal Nets

Focal Area 3: Explainable AI Our confidence in the projections made by Earth System Models (ESMs) depends on understanding them to be, in some important respects, faithful representations of the Earth system. Here we present an “explainable Artificial Intelligence (AI)” method that allows us to uncover the dynamical structure of the observed and modeled Earth system, discover hidden links across wide spatiotemporal scales, target model development efforts at poorly-represented dynamics, and optimize observed or modeled data collection to maximize predictive information. Science Challenge: Dynamical system science for the Earth system poses unique challenges given the large degree of internal climate variability. Thus, tools that help us understand how ESMs succeed and fail at representing these dynamics are crucial, particularly in relation to the observed system. Furthermore, the computational and memory constraints on ESM data output motivate in situ analysis of ESM dynamics, including automatic detection of dynamical shifts. Also, of key importance are procedures that leverage ESMs to optimize observational campaigns for improving process representation, reducing structural uncertainty and improving model skill.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

A study of the compatibility of an existing CFD package with a broader class of material constitutions

The flexibility of the PHOENICS computational fluid dynamics package was assessed along two general avenues; parallel modeling and analog modeling. In parallel modeling the dependent and independent variables retain their identity within some scaling factors, even though the boundary conditions and especially the constitutive relations do not correspond to any realistic fluid dynamic situation. PHOENICS was used to generate a CFD model that should exhibit the physical anomalies of a granular medium and permit reasonable similarity with boundary conditions typical to membrane or porous piston loading. A considerable portion of the study was spent prying into the existing code with a prejudice toward rate type and disarming any inherent fluid behavior. The final stages of the study were directed at the more specific problem of multiaxis loading of cylindrical geometry with a concern for the appearance of bulging, cross slab shear failure modes.

French, K. W., Jr.↗

Providing Comprehensive and Consistent Access to Astronomical Observatory Archive Data: The NASA Archive Model

Since the turn of the millennium a constant concern of astronomical archives have begun providing data to the public through standardized protocols unifying data from disparate physical sources and wavebands across the electromagnetic spectrum into an astronomical virtual observatory (VO). In October 2014, NASA began support for the NASA Astronomical Virtual Observatories (NAVO) program to coordinate the efforts of NASA astronomy archives in providing data to users through implementation of protocols agreed within the International Virtual Observatory Alliance (IVOA). A major goal of the NAVO collaboration has been to step back from a piecemeal implementation of IVOA standards and define what the appropriate presence for the US and NASA astronomy archives in the VO should be. This includes evaluating what optional capabilities in the standards need to be supported, the specific versions of standards that should be used, and returning feedback to the IVOA, to support modifications as needed. We discuss a standard archive model developed by the NAVO for data archive presence in the virtual observatory built upon a consistent framework of standards defined by the IVOA. Our standard model provides for discovery of resources through the VO registries, access to observation and object data, downloads of image and spectral data and general access to archival datasets. It defines specific protocol versions, minimum capabilities, and all dependencies. The model will evolve as the capabilities of the virtual observatory and needs of the community change.

Virtual observatory; data archives; standards; IVO↗

Solar Wind Ion Sputtering of Sodium from Silicates Using Molecular Dynamics Calculations of Surface Binding Energies

For nearly 40 yr, studies of exosphere formation on airless bodies have been hindered by uncertainties in our understanding of the underlying ion collisional sputtering by the solar wind (SW). These ion impacts on airless bodies play an important role in altering their surface properties and surrounding environment. Much of the collisional sputtering data needed for exosphere studies come from binary collision approximation (BCA) sputtering models. These depend on the surface binding energy (SBE) for the atoms sputtered from the impacted material. However, the SBE is not reliably known for many materials important for planetary science, such as plagioclase feldspars and sodium pyroxenes. BCA models typically approximate the SBE using the cohesive energy for a monoelemental solid. We use molecular dynamics (MD) to provide the first accurate SBE data we are aware of for Na sputtered from the above silicate minerals, which are expected to be important for exospheric formation at Mercury and the Moon. The MD SBE values are ∼8 times larger than the Na monoelemental cohesive energy. This has a significant effect on the predicted SW ion sputtering yield and energy distribution of Na and the formation of the corresponding Na exosphere. We also find that the SBE is correlated with the coordination number of the Na atoms within the substrate and with the cohesive energy of the Na-bearing silicate. Our MD SBE results will enable more accurate BCA predictions for the SW ion sputtering contribution to the Na exosphere of Mercury and the Moon.

Lunar surface↗

Stripe correlations in the two-dimensional Hubbard-Holstein model

Several state-of-the-art numerical methods have observed static or fluctuating spin and charge stripes in doped two-dimensional Hubbard models, suggesting that these orders play a significant role in shaping the cuprate phase diagram. Many experiments, however, also indicate that the cuprates have strong electron-phonon (e-ph) coupling, and it is unclear how this interaction influences stripe correlations. We study static and fluctuating stripe orders in the doped single-band Hubbard-Holstein model using zero temperature variational Monte Carlo and finite temperature determinant quantum Monte Carlo. We find that the lattice couples more strongly with the charge component of the stripes, leading to an enhancement or suppression of stripe correlations, depending on model parameters like the next-nearest-neighbor hopping t' or phonon energy Ω. Our results help elucidate how the e-ph interaction can tip the delicate balance between stripe and superconducting correlations in the Hubbard-Holstein model with implications for our understanding of the high-T c cuprates.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Solar Signals in CMIP-5 Simulations: The Stratospheric Pathway

The 11 year solar-cycle component of climate variability is assessed in historical simulations of models taken from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, phase 5 (CMIP-5). Multiple linear regression is applied to estimate the zonal temperature, wind and annular mode responses to a typical solar cycle, with a focus on both the stratosphere and the stratospheric influence on the surface over the period approximately 1850-2005. The analysis is performed on all CMIP-5 models but focuses on the 13 CMIP-5 models that resolve the stratosphere (high-top models) and compares the simulated solar cycle signature with reanalysis data. The 11 year solar cycle component of climate variability is found to be weaker in terms of magnitude and latitudinal gradient around the stratopause in the models than in the reanalysis. The peak in temperature in the lower equatorial stratosphere (approximately 70 hPa) reported in some studies is found in the models to depend on the length of the analysis period, with the last 30 years yielding the strongest response. A modification of the Polar Jet Oscillation (PJO) in response to the 11 year solar cycle is not robust across all models, but is more apparent in models with high spectral resolution in the short-wave region. The PJO evolution is slower in these models, leading to a stronger response during February, whereas observations indicate it to be weaker. In early winter, the magnitude of the modeled response is more consistent with observations when only data from 1979-2005 are considered. The observed North Pacific high-pressure surface response during the solar maximum is only simulated in some models, for which there are no distinguishing model characteristics. The lagged North Atlantic surface response is reproduced in both high- and low-top models, but is more prevalent in the former. In both cases, the magnitude of the response is generally lower than in observations.

stratosphere↗

Static and Impulsive Models of Solar Active Regions

The physical modeling of active regions (ARs) and of the global coronal is receiving increasing interest lately. Recent attempts to model ARs using static equilibrium models were quite successful in reproducing AR images of hot soft X-ray (SXR) loops. They however failed to predict the bright EUV warm loops permeating ARs: the synthetic images were dominated by intense footpoint emission. We demonstrate that this failure is due to the very weak dependence of loop temperature on loop length which cannot simultaneously account for both hot and warm loops in the same AR. We then consider time-dependent AR models based on nanoflare heating. We demonstrate that such models can simultaneously reproduce EUV and SXR loops in ARs. Moreover, they predict radial intensity variations consistent with the localized core and extended emissions in SXR and EUV AR observations respectively. We finally show how the AR morphology can be used as a gauge of the properties (duration, energy, spatial dependence, repetition time) of the impulsive heating.

Patsourakos, S.↗

Evaluating the location capabilities of a regional infrasonic network in Utah, US, using both ray tracing-derived and empirical-derived celerity-range and backazimuth models

SUMMARY More realistic models for infrasound signal propagation across a region can be used to improve the precision and accuracy of spatial and temporal source localization estimates. Motivated by incomplete infrasound event bulletins in the Western US, the location capabilities of a regional infrasonic network of stations located between 84–458 km from the Utah Test and Training Range, Utah, USA, is assessed using a series of near-surface explosive events with complementary ground truth (GT) information. Signal arrival times and backazimuth estimates are determined with an automatic F-statistic based signal detector and manually refined by an analyst. This study represents the first application of three distinct celerity-range and backazimuth models to an extensive suite of realistic signal detections for event location purposes. A singular celerity and backazimuth deviation model was previously constructed using ray tracing analysis based on an extensive archive of historical atmospheric specifications and is applied within this study to test location capabilities. Similarly, a set of multivariate, season and location specific models for celerity and backazimuth are compared to an empirical model that depends on the observations across the infrasound network and the GT events, which accounts for atmospheric propagation variations from source to receiver. Discrepancies between observed and predicted signal celerities result in locations with poor accuracy. Application of the empirical model improves both spatial localization precision and accuracy; all but one location estimates retain the true GT location within the 90 per cent confidence bounds. Average mislocation of the events is 15.49 km and average 90 per cent error ellipse areas are 4141 km2. The empirical model additionally reduces origin time residuals; origin time residuals from the other location models are in excess of 160 s while residuals produced with the empirical model are within 30 s of the true origin time. We demonstrate that event location accuracy is driven by a combination of signal propagation model and the azimuthal gap of detecting stations. A direct relationship between mislocation, error ellipse area and increased station azimuthal gaps indicate that for sparse networks, detection backazimuths may drive location biases over traveltime estimates.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

A multiloop generalization of the circle criterion for stability margin analysis

In order to provide a theoretical tool suited for characterizing the stability margins of multiloop feedback systems, multiloop input-output stability results generalizing the circle stability criterion are considered. Generalized conic sectors with 'centers' and 'radii' determined by linear dynamical operators are employed to specify the stability margins as a frequency dependent convex set of modeling errors (including nonlinearities, gain variations and phase variations) which the system must be able to tolerate in each feedback loop without instability. The resulting stability criterion gives sufficient conditions for closed loop stability in the presence of frequency dependent modeling errors, even when the modeling errors occur simultaneously in all loops. The stability conditions yield an easily interpreted scalar measure of the amount by which a multiloop system exceeds, or falls short of, its stability margin specifications.

Safonov, M. G.↗

The Role of Flow Diagnostic Techniques in Fan and Open Rotor Noise Modeling

A principal source of turbomachinery noise is the interaction of the rotating and stationary blade rows with the perturbations in the airstream through the engine. As such, a lot of research has been devoted to the study of the turbomachinery noise generation mechanisms. This is particularly true of fan and open rotors, both of which are the major contributors to the overall noise output of modern aircraft engines. Much of the research in fan and open rotor noise has been focused on developing theoretical models for predicting their noise characteristics. These models, which run the gamut from the semi-empirical to fully computational ones, are, in one form or another, informed by the description of the unsteady flow-field in which the propulsors (i.e., the fan and open rotors) operate. Not surprisingly, the fidelity of the theoretical models is dependent, to a large extent, on capturing the nuances of the unsteady flowfield that have a direct role in the noise generation process. As such, flow diagnostic techniques have proven to be indispensible in identifying the shortcoming of theoretical models and in helping to improve them. This presentation will provide a few examples of the role of flow diagnostic techniques in assessing the fidelity and robustness of the fan and open rotor noise prediction models.

Noise Prediction↗

Partitioning uncertainty in projections of Arctic sea ice

Abstract Improved knowledge of the contributing sources of uncertainty in projections of Arctic sea ice over the 21st century is essential for evaluating impacts of a changing Arctic environment. Here, we consider the role of internal variability, model structure and emissions scenario in projections of Arctic sea-ice area (SIA) by using six single model initial-condition large ensembles and a suite of models participating in Phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. For projections of September Arctic SIA change, internal variability accounts for as much as 40%–60% of the total uncertainty in the next decade, while emissions scenario dominates uncertainty toward the end of the century. Model structure accounts for 60%–70% of the total uncertainty by mid-century and declines to 30% at the end of the 21st century in the summer months. For projections of wintertime Arctic SIA change, internal variability contributes as much as 50%–60% of the total uncertainty in the next decade and impacts total uncertainty at longer lead times when compared to the summertime. In winter, there exists a considerable scenario dependence of model uncertainty with relatively larger model uncertainty under strong forcing compared to weak forcing. At regional scales, the contribution of internal variability can vary widely and strongly depends on the calendar month and region. For wintertime SIA change in the Greenland-Iceland-Norwegian and Barents Seas, internal variability contributes 60%–70% to the total uncertainty over the coming decades and remains important much longer than in other regions. We further find that the relative contribution of internal variability to total uncertainty is state-dependent and increases as sea ice volume declines. These results demonstrate that internal variability is a significant source of uncertainty in projections of Arctic sea ice.

Bonan, David B. (ORCID:0000000338676009)↗

Modeling of outgassing and matrix decomposition in carbon-phenolic composites

A new release rate equation to model the phase change of water to steam in composite materials was derived from the theory of molecular diffusion and equilibrium moisture concentration. The new model is dependent on internal pressure, the microstructure of the voids and channels in the composite materials, and the diffusion properties of the matrix material. Hence, it is more fundamental and accurate than the empirical Arrhenius rate equation currently in use. The model was mathematically formalized and integrated into the thermostructural analysis code CHAR. Parametric studies on variation of several parameters have been done. Comparisons to Arrhenius and straight-line models show that the new model produces physically realistic results under all conditions.

Mcmanus, Hugh L.↗

MOM: A meteorological data checking expert system in CLIPS

Meteorologists have long faced the problem of verifying the data they use. Experience shows that there is a sizable number of errors in the data reported by meteorological observers. This is unacceptable for computer forecast models, which depend on accurate data for accurate results. Most errors that occur in meteorological data are obvious to the meteorologist, but time constraints prevent hand-checking. For this reason, it is necessary to have a 'front end' to the computer model to ensure the accuracy of input. Various approaches to automatic data quality control have been developed by several groups. MOM is a rule-based system implemented in CLIPS and utilizing 'consistency checks' and 'range checks'. The system is generic in the sense that it knows some meteorological principles, regardless of specific station characteristics. Specific constraints kept as CLIPS facts in a separate file provide for system flexibility. Preliminary results show that the expert system has detected some inconsistencies not noticed by a local expert.

Odonnell, Richard↗