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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

Developing and applying quantifiable metrics for diagnostic and experiment design on Z

This project applies methods in Bayesian inference and modern statistical methods to quantify the value of new experimental data, in the form of new or modified diagnostic configurations and/or experiment designs. We demonstrate experiment design methods that can be used to identify the highest priority diagnostic improvements or experimental data to obtain in order to reduce uncertainties on critical inferred experimental quantities and select the best course of action to distinguish between competing physical models. Bayesian statistics and information theory provide the foundation for developing the necessary metrics, using two high impact experimental platforms on Z as exemplars to develop and illustrate the technique. We emphasize that the general methodology is extensible to new diagnostics (provided synthetic models are available), as well as additional platforms. We also discuss initial scoping of additional applications that began development in the last year of this LDRD.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
NASA NTRS1993

A statistical analysis of mesoscale rainfall as a random cascade

The paper considers the random cascade theory for spatial rainfall. Particular attention was given to the following four areas: (1) the relationship of the random cascade theory of rainfall to the simple scaling and the hierarchical cluster-point-process theories, (2) the mathematical foundations for some of the formalisms commonly applied in the develpment of statistical cascade theory, (3) the empirical evidence for a random cascade theory of rainfall, and (4) the way of using data for making estimates of parameters and for making statistical inference within this theoretical framework. An analysis of space-time rainfall data is presented. Cascade simulations are carried out to provide a comparison with methods of analysis that are applied to the rainfall data.

Gupta, Vijay K.↗
DOE OSTI2021

WHISPER: Wireless Home Identification and Sensing Platform for Energy Reduction

Many regions of the world benefit from heating, ventilating, and air-conditioning (HVAC) systems to provide productive, comfortable, and healthy indoor environments, which are enabled by automatic building controls. Due to climate change, population growth, and industrialization, HVAC use is globally on the rise. Unfortunately, these systems often operate in a continuous fashion without regard to actual human presence, leading to unnecessary energy consumption. As a result, the heating, ventilation, and cooling of unoccupied building spaces makes a substantial contribution to the harmful environmental impacts associated with carbon-based electric power generation, which is important to remedy. For our modern electric power system, transitioning to low-carbon renewable energy is facilitated by integration with distributed energy resources. Automatic engagement between the grid and consumers will be necessary to enable a clean yet stable electric grid, when integrating these variable and uncertain renewable energy sources. We present the WHISPER (Wireless Home Identification and Sensing Platform for Energy Reduction) system to address the energy and power demand triggered by human presence in homes. The presented system includes a maintenance-free and privacy-preserving human occupancy detection system wherein a local wireless network of battery-free environmental, acoustic energy, and image sensors are deployed to monitor homes, record empirical data for a range of monitored modalities, and transmit it to a base station. Several machine learning algorithms are implemented at the base station to infer human presence based on the received data, harnessing a hierarchical sensor fusion algorithm. Results from the prototype system demonstrate an accuracy in human presence detection in excess of 95%; ongoing commercialization efforts suggest approximately 99% accuracy. Using machine learning, WHISPER enables various applications based on its binary occupancy prediction, allowing situation-specific controls targeted at both personalized smart home and electric grid modernization opportunities.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
NASA NTRS1991

Microphysical and radiative characteristics of convective clouds during COHMEX

This paper has two purposes: first, to document the structure and evolution of two strong thunderstorms in Alabama using radar multiparameter data; and second, to relate the inferred microphysics to the resulting upwelling microwave radiance observed concurrently by high altitude aircraft. These measurements were collected during the COHMEX field program in the summer of 1986. The radar analysis includes a description of the parameters reflectivity Z, differential reflectivity Z(DR), linear depolarization ratio LDR, and hail signal HS for two thunderstorm cases on July 11, 1986. The simultaneous aircraft data include passive microwave brightness temperature, T(B), measurements at four frequencies ranging from 18 to 183 GHz, as well as visible and infrared data. The remote radar observations reveal the existence of large ice particles within the storms, which is likely to have caused the observed low microwave brightness temperatures. By relating the evolution of the radar measureables to the microwave T(B)s it has been found that knowledge of the storm microphysics and its evolution is important to adequately understand the microwave T(B)s.

Fulton, Richard↗
NASA NTRS2000

BOREAS HYD-2 Estimated Snow Water Equivalent (SWE) from Microwave Measurements

The surface meteorological data collected at the Boreal Ecosystem-Atmosphere Study (BOREAS) tower and ancillary sites are being used as inputs to an energy balance model to monitor the amount of snow storage in the boreal forest region. The BOREAS Hydrology (HYD)-2 team used Snow Water Equivalent (SWE) derived from an energy balance model and in situ observed SWE to compare the SWE inferred from airborne and spaceborne microwave data, and to assess the accuracy of microwave retrieval algorithms. The major external measurements that are needed are snowpack temperature profiles, in situ snow areal extent, and SWE data. The data in this data set were collected during February 1994 and cover portions of the Southern Study Area (SSA), Northern Study Area (NSA), and the transect areas. The data are available from BORIS as comma-delimited tabular ASCII files. The SWE data are available from the Earth Observing System Data and Information System (EOSDIS) Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) Distributed Active Archive Center (DAAC). The data files are available on a CD-ROM (see document number 20010000884).

Powell, Hugh↗
NASA NTRS1995

Solar wind interaction with small bodies. 1: Whistler wing signatures near to Gaspra and Ida

Data from Galileo's two asteroid flybys reveal magnetic fluctuations that we interpret as perturbations of the solar wind magnetic field caused by an interaction with the nearby asteroid. The scale sizes of the bodies (approximately 14 km for Gaspra and approximately 30 km for Ida) are intermediate between the ion and electron gyroradii, which implies that the asteroid-imposed perturbations propagate in the whistler mode. Special properties of the whistler mode include phase phase velocities that can exceed the solar wind speed and confinement of the disturbance to directions nearly aligned with the magnetic field. These features of the interaction impose a structure on the solar wind disturbance that differs greatly from the forms familiar for either magnetized or unmagnetized bodies of magnetohydrodynamic spatial scales. We examine both data and computer simulations of the interaction with special attention to what can be inferred about the interaction itself from analysis of the data.

Wang, Z.↗
DOE OSTI2025

Overview of oxygen opacity experiments at the National Ignition Facility and investigation of potential systematic errors

Experiments to measure oxygen opacity at stellar interior conditions have been performed at the National Ignition Facility in a Discovery Science campaign. These experiments utilize the Opacity-on-NIF platform with a sample comprised of O, Mg, and Si. The spectral data from the Opacity Spectrometer cover the 1000–2000 eV photon energy range showing bound-free continuum absorption from O and line absorption from Mg and Si. DANTE and the Gated X-ray Detector are employed to measure the sample plasma’s temperature and density, respectively. Initial data show lower transmission than expected by theoretical models, raising questions of whether potential background or data uniformity concerns could produce systematic errors in the inferred transmission. Here, we investigate three concerns thought to be important for the oxygen opacity data, including instrumental scattered background, sample self-emission non-uniformity, and backlight continuum non-uniformity. Additionally, we show the effect of a recently developed method to account for 2nd order crystal reflection. The total effect of these concerns on one experiment is found to be small compared to the observed difference between the inferred transmission and a model calculation at the inferred temperature and density. Thus, we conclude that these potential sources of systematic error cannot account for the observed difference, increasing the likelihood of a real effect due to the high temperature and density conditions. However, because this is only a single experiment, we cannot make a firm conclusion. More experiments measuring the opacity and necessary calibrations are needed to assess the reproducibility and uncertainty of this result.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
NASA NTRS2009

Using GPS to Detect Imminent Tsunamis

A promising method of detecting imminent tsunamis and estimating their destructive potential involves the use of Global Positioning System (GPS) data in addition to seismic data. Application of the method is expected to increase the reliability of global tsunami-warning systems, making it possible to save lives while reducing the incidence of false alarms. Tsunamis kill people every year. The 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami killed about 230,000 people. The magnitude of an earthquake is not always a reliable indication of the destructive potential of a tsunami. The 2004 Indian Ocean quake generated a huge tsunami, while the 2005 Nias (Indonesia) quake did not, even though both were initially estimated to be of the similar magnitude. Between 2005 and 2007, five false tsunami alarms were issued worldwide. Such alarms result in negative societal and economic effects. GPS stations can detect ground motions of earthquakes in real time, as frequently as every few seconds. In the present method, the epicenter of an earthquake is located by use of data from seismometers, then data from coastal GPS stations near the epicenter are used to infer sea-floor displacements that precede a tsunami. The displacement data are used in conjunction with local topographical data and an advanced theory to quantify the destructive potential of a tsunami on a new tsunami scale, based on the GPS-derived tsunami energy, much like the Richter Scale used for earthquakes. An important element of the derivation of the advanced theory was recognition that horizontal sea-floor motions contribute much more to generation of tsunamis than previously believed. The method produces a reliable estimate of the destructive potential of a tsunami within minutes typically, well before the tsunami reaches coastal areas. The viability of the method was demonstrated in computational tests in which the method yielded accurate representations of three historical tsunamis for which well-documented ground-motion measurements were available. Development of a global tsunami-warning system utilizing an expanded network of coastal GPS stations was under consideration at the time of reporting the information for this article.

Song, Y. Tony↗
NASA NTRS1972

Microwave radiometric measurements of atmospheric temperature and water from an aircraft.

A five-channel microwave spectrometer operating near the 1.35-cm wavelength water vapor and the 5-mm wavelength oxygen resonances was flown in the NASA Convair 990 aircraft at altitudes near 12 km and used to infer layer thicknesses and water vapor and liquid water abundances in the troposphere. The calibration of the spectrometer and a multiple regression method of interpretation of the data obtained from the flights are described. Possible errors from clouds and from the terrestrial surface are discussed. Values of atmospheric layer thicknesses, water vapor content, and liquid water content inferred from microwave data obtained over two frontal systems are presented. The inferred values of 1000- to 500-mb and 500- to 250-mb thicknesses agree with directly measured values to within 15 meters at the places where the direct measurements were made. This agreement is equivalent to errors of less than 1 K in mean temperature.

Rosenkranz, P. W.↗
NASA NTRS1999

Pulse Profiles, Accretion Column and a flare in Gx 1+4 During a Faint State

The Rossi X-ray Timing Explorer (RXTE) spacecraft observed the X-ray pulsar GX 1+4 for a period of 34 hours on July 19/20 1996. The source faded from an intensity of approx. 20 mcrab to a minimum of less than or equal to 0.7 mcrab and then partially recovered towards the end of the observation. This extended minimum lasted approx. 40,000 seconds. Phase folded light curves at a barycentric rotation period of 124.36568 +/- 0.00020 seconds show that near the center of the extended minimum the source stopped pulsing in the traditional sense but retained a weak dip feature at the rotation period. Away from the extended minimum the dips are progressively narrower at higher energies and may be interpreted as obscurations or eclipses of the hot spot by the accretion column. The pulse profile changed from leading-edge bright before the extended minimum to trailing-edge bright after it. Data from the Burst and Transz'ent Source Experiment (BATSE) show that a torque reversal occurred less than 10 days after our observation. Our data indicate that the observed rotation departs from a constant period with a P/P value off approx. -5% per year at a 4.5(sigma) significance. We infer that we may have serendipitously obtained data. with high sensitivity and temporal resolution about the time of an accretion disk spin reversal. We also observed a rapid flare which had some precursor activity close to the center of the extended minimum.

Giles, A. B.↗
NASA NTRS1999

Pulse Profiles, Accretion Column Dips and a Flare in GX 1+4 During a Faint State

The Rossi X-ray Timing Explorer (RXTE) spacecraft observed the X-ray GX 1+4 for it period of 34 hours on July 19/20 1996. The source faded front an intensity of approximately 20 mcrab to a minimum of <= 0.7 mcrab and then partially recovered towards the end of the observation. This extended minimum lasted approximately 40,000 seconds. Phase folded light curves at a barycentric rotation period of 124.36568 +/- 0.00020 seconds show that near the center of the extended minimum the source stopped pulsing in the traditional sense but retained a weak dip feature at the rotation period. Away from the extended minimum the dips are progressively narrower at higher energies and may be interpreted as obscurations or eclipses of the hot spot by the accretion column. The pulse profile changed from leading-edge bright before the extended minimum to trailing-edge bright after it. Data from the Burst and Transient Source Experiment (BATSE) show that a torque reversal occurred < 10 days after our observation. Our data indicate that the observed rotation departs from a constant period with a P/P value of approximately -1.5% per year at a 4.5sigma significance. We infer that we may have serendipitously obtained data, with high sensitivity and temporal resolution about the time of an accretion disk spin reversal. We also observed a rapid flare which had some precursor activity close to the center of the extended minimum.

Giles, A. B.↗
DOE OSTI2023

Evidence for AGN-regulated Cooling in Clusters at z ∼ 1.4: A Multiwavelength View of SPT-CL J0607-4448

Abstract We present a multiwavelength analysis of the galaxy cluster SPT-CL J0607-4448 (SPT0607), which is one of the most distant clusters discovered by the South Pole Telescope at z = 1.4010 ± 0.0028. The high-redshift cluster shows clear signs of being relaxed with well-regulated feedback from the active galactic nucleus (AGN) in the brightest cluster galaxy (BCG). Using Chandra X-ray data, we construct thermodynamic profiles and determine the properties of the intracluster medium. The cool-core nature of the cluster is supported by a centrally peaked density profile and low central entropy ( K 0 = 18 − 9 + 11 keV cm 2 ), which we estimate assuming an isothermal temperature profile due to the limited spectral information given the distance to the cluster. Using the density profile and gas cooling time inferred from the X-ray data, we find a mass-cooling rate M ̇ cool = 100 − 60 + 90 M ⊙ yr −1 . From optical spectroscopy and photometry around the [O ii ] emission line, we estimate that the BCG star formation rate is SFR [ O II ] = 1.7 − 0.6 + 1.0 M ⊙ yr −1 , roughly two orders of magnitude lower than the predicted mass-cooling rate. In addition, using ATCA radio data at 2.1 GHz, we measure a radio jet power P cav = 3.2 − 1.3 + 2.1 × 10 44 erg s −1 , which is consistent with the X-ray cooling luminosity ( L cool = 1.9 − 0.5 + 0.2 × 10 44 erg s −1 within r cool = 43 kpc). These findings suggest that SPT0607 is a relaxed, cool-core cluster with AGN-regulated cooling at an epoch shortly after cluster formation, implying that the balance between cooling and feedback can be reached quickly. We discuss the implications for these findings on the evolution of AGN feedback in galaxy clusters.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
NASA NTRS1986

Diagnostic analysis of two-dimensional monthly average ozone balance with Chapman chemistry

Chapman chemistry has been used in a two-dimensional model to simulate ozone balance phenomenology. The similarity between regions of ozone production and loss calculated using Chapman chemistry and those computed using LIMS and SAMS data with a photochemical equilibrium model indicate that such simplified chemistry is useful in studying gross features in stratospheric ozone balance. Net ozone production or loss rates are brought about by departures from the photochemical equilibrium (PCE) condition. If transport drives ozone above its PCE condition, then photochemical loss dominates production. If transport drives ozone below its PCE condition, then photochemical production dominates loss. Gross features of ozone loss/production (L/P) inferred for the real atmosphere from data are also simulated using only eddy diffusion. This indicates that one must be careful in assigning a transport scheme for a two-dimensional model that mimics only behavior of the observed ozone L/P.

Stolarski, Richard S.↗
DOE OSTI2022

The Hubble Constant from Strongly Lensed Supernovae with Standardizable Magnifications

The dominant uncertainty in the current measurement of the Hubble constant (H 0 ) with strong gravitational lensing time delays is attributed to uncertainties in the mass profiles of the main deflector galaxies. Strongly lensed supernovae (glSNe) can provide, in addition to measurable time delays, lensing magnification constraints when knowledge about the unlensed apparent brightness of the explosion is imposed. We present a hierarchical Bayesian framework to combine a data set of SNe that are not strongly lensed and a data set of strongly lensed SNe with measured time delays. We jointly constrain (i) H 0 using the time delays as an absolute distance indicator, (ii) the lens model profiles using the magnification ratio of lensed and unlensed fluxes on the population level, and (iii) the unlensed apparent magnitude distribution of the SN population and the redshift–luminosity relation of the relative expansion history of the universe. We apply our joint inference framework on a future expected data set of glSNe and forecast that a sample of 144 glSNe of Type Ia with well-measured time series and imaging data will measure H 0 to 1.5%. We discuss strategies to mitigate systematics associated with using absolute flux measurements of glSNe to constrain the mass density profiles. Using the magnification of SN images is a promising and complementary alternative to using stellar kinematics. Future surveys, such as the Rubin and Roman observatories, will be able to discover the necessary number of glSNe, and with additional follow-up observations, this methodology will provide precise constraints on mass profiles and H 0 .

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

An initial framework for the rapid qualification of long-term creep rupture strength via microstructural modeling

This report describes the development and testing of a new method for extrapolating short-term creep rupture test data to predict long-term rupture strength. The goal of this work is to reduce the time required to qualify new materials for nuclear service by reducing the lead time required for dedicated, long-term material testing to establish key long-term material properties. The new approach described here uses a physics-based model to predict the long-term creep rupture strength of 316H stainless steel using only short-term test data. The key idea is to use Bayesian inference to find the statistical distribution of the model parameters that best explain the short-term rupture data. Because the model is physics-based these parameters are all microstructural quantities that can be measured through detailed material characterization experiments. The Bayesian prior distributions provide a means for incorporating this characterization data into the final model to improve the accuracy of the long-term model predictions. However, where such data is not available the process still produces an accurate model based on an uniformed prior. Our hypothesis is that this approach more accurately extrapolates the short-term test data when compared to current, empirical methods. The report proves this hypothesis using actual long-term rupture data available for 316H, including tests with rupture times greater than 200,000 hours. The general approach developed here could be applied to other materials and other time-dependent material properties. Applying this new technique to develop long-term qualified material properties, potentially in conjunction with other accelerated qualification approaches like staggered qualification test programs, could greatly reduce the time required to qualify new materials for nuclear service.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
NASA NTRS1996

Chromospheric Heating in Late-Type Stars: Evidence for Magnetic and Nonmagnetic Surface Structure

The aim of this paper is to evaluate recent observational and theoretical results concerning the physics of chromospheric heating as inferred from IUE, HST-GHRS and ROSAT data. These results are discussed in conjunction with theoretical model calculations based on acoustic and magnetic heating to infer some conclusions about the magnetic and non-magnetic surface structure of cool luminous stars. I find that most types of stars may exhibit both magnetic and nonmagnetic structures. Candidates for pure nonmagnetic surface structure include M-type giants and super-giants. M-type supergiants are also ideal candidates for identifying direct links between the appearance of hot spots on the stellar surface (perhaps caused by large convective bubbles) and temporarily increased chromospheric heating and emission.

Cuntz, Manfred↗
NASA NTRS1994

Constraints on hydrothermal heat flux through the oceanic lithosphere from global heat flow

A significant discrepancy exists between the heat flow measured at the seafloor and the higher values predicted by thermal models of the cooling lithosphere. This discrepancy is generally interpreted as indicating that the upper oceanic crust is cooled significantly by hydrothermal circulation. The magnitude of this heat flow discrepancy is the primary datum used to estimate the volume of hydrothermal flow, and the variation in the discrepancy with lithospheric age is the primary constraint on how the hydrothermal flux is divided between near-ridge and off-ridge environments. The resulting estimates are important for investigation of both the thermal structure of the lithosphere and the chemistry of the oceans. We reevaluate the magnitude and age variation of the discrepancy using a global heat flow data set substantially larger than in earlier studies, and the GDHI (Global Depth and Heat Flow) model that better predicts the heat flow. We estimate that of the predicted global oceanic heat flux of 32 x 10(exp 12) W, 34% (11 x 10(exp 12) W) occurs by hydrothermal flow. Approximately 30% of the hydrothermal heat flux occurs in crust younger than 1 Ma, so the majority of this flux is off-ridge. These hydrothermal heat flux estimates are upper bounds, because heat flow measurements require sediment at the site and so are made preferentially at topographic lows, where heat flow may be depressed. Because the water temperature for the near-ridge flow exceeds that for the off-ridge flow, the near-ridge water flow will be even a smaller fraction of the total water flow. As a result, in estimating fluxes from geochemical data, use of the high water temperatures appropriate for the ridge axis may significantly overestimate the heat flux for an assumed water flux or underestimate the water flux for an assumed heat flux. Our data also permit improved estimates of the 'sealing' age, defined as the age where the observed heat flow approximately equals that predicted, suggesting that hydrothermal heat transfer has largely ceased. Although earlier studies suggested major differences in sealing ages for different ocean basins, we find that the sealing ages for the Atlantic, Pacific, and Indian oceans are similar and consistent with the sealing age for the entire data set, 65 +/- 10 Ma. The previous inference of a young (approximately 20 Ma) sealing age for the Pacific appears to have biased downward several previous estimates of the global hydrothermal flux. The heat flow data also provide indirect evidence for the mechanism by which the hydrothermal heat flux becomes small, which has often been ascribed to isolation of the igneous crust from seawater due to the hydraulic conductivity of the intervening sediment. We find, however, that even the least sedimented sites show the systematic increase of the ratio of observed to predicted heat flow with age, although the more sedimented sites have a younger sealing age. Moreover, the heat flow discrepancy persists at heavily sedimented sites until approximately 50 Ma. It thus appears that approximately 100-200 m of sediment is neither necessary nor sufficient to stop hydrothermal heat transfer. We therefore conclude that the age of the crust is the primary control on the fraction of heat transported by hydrothermal flow and that sediment thickness has a lesser effect. This inference is consistent with models in which hydrothermal flow decreases with age due to reduced crustal porosity and hence permeability.

Stein, Carol A.↗
NASA NTRS1997

Multiangle Observations of Directional Reflectances of Snow Fields

Accurate measurements of snow areas and surface albedo are crucial to advancing our understanding of the global climate system. This is because of the highly reflective nature of snow combined with its large surface coverage (snow can cover up to 40 % of the Earth's land surface during the Northern Hemisphere winter). The reflectance of snow varies with both solar incidence angle and the viewing angle. Visible sensors with different spatial resolutions have been used to infer the snow parameters. Currently, only nadir-viewing directional reflectance data are available from satellite observations. Observations at multiple angles are needed to infer the hemispheric reflectance albedo of snow fields. We propose to study the directional reflectance of snow fields using POLDER data, which contains information from different viewing angles and polarization. POLDER was successfully launched an the ADEOS-1 satellite in August, 1996, however, because POLDER data are not yet available, data from ASAS, a pointable, airborne spectroradiometer, were used in this study. Data collected over Glacier National Park of Montana show strong angular dependence. Preliminary results confirm the anisotropic nature of the snow reflectance. Knowledge of the bi-directional reflectance function(BDRF) of snow -covered surfaces is the key to developing a true albedo model in the future.

Chang, A.T.C.↗