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At least 1,009 records · Page 56

Development of lean, efficient, and fast physics-framed deep-learning-based proxy models for subsurface carbon storage

In this work, we present deep-learning-based surrogate models for CCUS developed with four different algorithms and a physics-framed two-phase flow problem involving displacement of water by CO 2 . The deep-learning models were trained using 3D datasets describing the pressure plume, CO 2 saturation plume, and water extraction rate generated by numerical simulation. The hyperparameters defining the architecture of the neural networks were optimized to determine the slimmest network size and training parameters that give the most efficient performance at the least training cost. To develop a robust model that closely mimics the governing physical laws, the discretized form of the two-phase fluid transport equation was used to formulate the supervised deep-learning task. The algorithms investigated in this study predicted the data to above 95% accuracy, with the multi-layer perceptron model demonstrating the best performance by balancing training speed, prediction time, and prediction accuracy with lean network capacity. Furthermore, the surrogate models simultaneously predict reservoir pressure and CO 2 saturation in every grid block, including the surface well extraction rate and bottomhole pressure, at all simulation times for a given static model realization in just a few seconds on a standard desktop computer. A key outcome of this study is that limits can be placed on network design parameters to avoid over designing neural networks, with associated efficiencies in training and prediction times. This is very useful because large volumes of data may be generated in CCUS projects and over-design of neural network architectures imposes penalties that are antithetical to the goal of near-real time forecasting.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Quantifying the Value of Technology and Policy Innovation in Water Resource Portfolios

Abstract Recent water infrastructure planning models demonstrate that explicitly accounting for hydrological changes in long‐term water planning reduces costs and increases system robustness. However, current models do not consider the effects of other changes occurring in the system over long time horizons, namely technology and policy innovation. By leveraging state‐of‐the‐art dynamic control techniques, we propose a suite of tools that explicitly relate hydrologic change, technology innovation, and policy interventions to system‐level water costs. We design robust and cost‐optimal strategies for water supply expansion under hydrological variability and hundreds of plausible innovation states, for example, treatment cost and diversification improvements, deployment times, and demand reduction campaigns. Our approach circumvents the need to pre‐assign probabilities to innovation scenarios and, instead, directly calculates the effects of technology, policy, and hydrology variations on system cost and planning strategies to identify avenues of impactful innovation. These tools can support technology development hubs, urban, state, and federal water planners in anticipating cost implications of technology and policy innovation at the local level, and prioritizing high‐impact innovation goals based on quantitative targets. Results for the case study of Santa Barbara, California identify high‐value innovation attributes for the city as well as combinations of innovation attributes across technologies and policies, and quantify their potential utility cost reductions.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

A stochastic biomass blending problem in decentralized supply chains

Blending biomass materials of different physical or chemical properties provides an opportunity to adjust the quality of the feedstock to meet the specifications of the conversion platform. We propose a model which identifies the right mix of biomass to optimize the performance of the thermochemical conversion process at the mini-mum cost. This is a chance-constraint programming (CCP) model which takes into account the stochastic nature of biomass quality. The proposed CCP model ensures that process requirements, which are impacted by physical and chemical properties of biomass, are met most of the time. We consider two problem settings, a centralized and a decentralized supply chain. We propose a mixed-integer linear program to model the blending problem in the centralized setting and a bilevel program to model the blending problem in the decentralized setting. We use the sample average approximation method to approximate the chance constraints, and propose solution algorithms to solve this approximation. We develop a case study for South Carolina using data provided by the Billion Ton Study. Based on our results, the blends identified consist mainly of pine and softwood residues. The blends identified and the suppliers selected by both models are different. The cost of the centralized supply chain is 2%–6% lower. The implications of these results are twofold. First, these results could lead to improved collaborations in the supply chain. Second, these results provide an estimate of the approximation error from assuming centralized decision making in the supply chain.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Carbon fiber design improvements based on economic models

Circular fiber geometries are predominant in commercial carbon fiber material systems, but the use of this fiber shape has numerous limitations. Circular geometries have continuous symmetry, which is helpful for various processing considerations, but also have the largest possible maximum diffusion thickness for a given fiber area. This characteristic means that circular carbon fibers always have the highest material processing cost and lowest production throughput compared to any other fiber shape with the same area and tow count. To quantify material cost and other benefits for non-circular carbon fiber geometries, process models for polyacrylonitrile based carbon fiber production are developed in relationship to the carbon fiber shape, size, and tow count. For a given fiber shape, precursor production costs are shown to favor maximizing fiber size while conversion costs are minimized by the smallest fiber size. These competing cost trends result in a numerically optimal fiber size for a given shape and tow count, while both cost components are decreased by increasing tow count. Cost–performance tradeoffs for three lobe fiber geometries are studied by supplementing the cost trends with a numerical failure model to predict compressive strength for discrete shape variants. The shape selection is shown to be more sensitive to variations in cost than compressive strength while suboptimal shape designs can improve manufacturing robustness and achievable fiber volume fractions. Finally, an optimal three lobe carbon fiber is identified that balances the set of considerations while reducing costs and embodied energy and increasing production throughput compared to a commercial carbon fiber.

Carbon fiber↗

Deep Learning for Subsurface Flow: A Comparative Study of U‐Net, Fourier Neural Operators, and Transformers in Underground Hydrogen Storage

Subsurface flow research is essential for the sustainable management of natural resources and the environment. Deep learning (DL) has significantly advanced this field by developing efficient and accurate surrogate models to replace computationally expensive physics‐based simulations. These surrogate models are commonly used to predict the spatiotemporal evolution of state variables, such as gas saturation and reservoir pressure, in heterogeneous geological formations. Despite the various DL models applied to this task, there is a lack of studies systematically comparing their performance. This absence of comparative analysis leads to somewhat arbitrary DL model selection in subsurface flow research, resulting in suboptimal performance and potentially inaccurate predictions. To bridge this gap, we conduct a systematic comparison study of three popular DL architectures—U‐Net, Fourier Neural Operators (FNO), and Segmentation Transformer (SETR)—in surrogate modeling of underground hydrogen storage (UHS). We focus on UHS due to its promise of enhancing clean energy resilience and its cyclic operational conditions that represent common scenarios in various subsurface applications. We evaluate the models based on accuracy, training cost, and inference speed. The comparison shows that U‐Net achieves the highest accuracy, followed by SETR and FNO. Despite its lower accuracy, FNO has the highest inference speed. SETR offers competitive accuracy with the least training memory usage, demonstrating the potential of transformers in learning subsurface flow. Our results provide guidance for selecting DL models for surrogate modeling in a wide range of subsurface flow problems.

42 ENGINEERING↗

A Hybrid Energy System Workflow for Energy Portfolio Optimization

This manuscript develops a workflow, driven by data analytics algorithms, to support the optimization of the economic performance of an Integrated Energy System. The goal is to determine the optimum mix of capacities from a set of different energy producers (e.g., nuclear, gas, wind and solar). A stochastic-based optimizer is employed, based on Gaussian Process Modeling, which requires numerous samples for its training. Each sample represents a time series describing the demand, load, or other operational and economic profiles for various types of energy producers. These samples are synthetically generated using a reduced order modeling algorithm that reads a limited set of historical data, such as demand and load data from past years. Numerous data analysis methods are employed to construct the reduced order models, including, for example, the Auto Regressive Moving Average, Fourier series decomposition, and the peak detection algorithm. All these algorithms are designed to detrend the data and extract features that can be employed to generate synthetic time histories that preserve the statistical properties of the original limited historical data. The optimization cost function is based on an economic model that assesses the effective cost of energy based on two figures of merit: the specific cash flow stream for each energy producer and the total Net Present Value. An initial guess for the optimal capacities is obtained using the screening curve method. The results of the Gaussian Process model-based optimization are assessed using an exhaustive Monte Carlo search, with the results indicating reasonable optimization results. The workflow has been implemented inside the Idaho National Laboratory’s Risk Analysis and Virtual Environment (RAVEN) framework. The main contribution of this study addresses several challenges in the current optimization methods of the energy portfolios in IES: First, the feasibility of generating the synthetic time series of the periodic peak data; Second, the computational burden of the conventional stochastic optimization of the energy portfolio, associated with the need for repeated executions of system models; Third, the inadequacies of previous studies in terms of the comparisons of the impact of the economic parameters. The proposed workflow can provide a scientifically defendable strategy to support decision-making in the electricity market and to help energy distributors develop a better understanding of the performance of integrated energy systems.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Pumped Thermal Energy Storage Using Low-Cost Particles and a Fluid Bed Heat Exchanger for Maximum Power Efficiency

Robust, efficient, cost-effective long-duration electricity storage (LDES) solutions can enhance grid resiliency, support existing transmission and distribution infrastructure, and enable a greater share of low-cost, variable alternative energy sources to penetrate the market. To meet this need, the project team at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory developed a transformative LDES system based on pumped thermal energy storage (TES) using low-cost particles and a fluid bed heat exchanger for maximum power efficiency (PUMP). The PUMP system is composed of high-temperature, low-cost particle TES coupled with an advanced pressurized fluid bed heat exchanger (PFB HX) that supports a high-efficiency pumped thermal energy storage (PTES) system integrated with concentrating solar thermal power (CSP). The PUMP project developed and de-risked a PFB HX and particle CSP system intended to be integrated with reversible turbomachinery and a modeling tool to assess PTES cost and performance.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Revenue prediction for integrated renewable energy and energy storage system using machine learning techniques

Revenue estimation for integrated renewable energy and energy storage systems is important to support plant owners or operators’ decisions in battery sizing selection that leads to maximized financial performances. A common approach to optimizing revenues of a hybrid hydro and energy storage system is using mixed-integer linear programming (MILP). Although MILP models can provide accurate production cost estimations, they are typically very computationally expensive. To provide a fast yet accurate first-step information to hydropower plant owners or operators who consider integrating energy storage systems, we propose an innovative approach to predicting optimal revenues of an integrated energy generation and storage system. In this study, we examined the performance of two prediction techniques: Generalized Additive Models (GAMs) and machine learning (ML) models developed based on artificial neural networks (ANN). Predictive equations and models are generated based on optimized solutions from a market participation optimization model, the Conventional Hydropower Energy and Environmental Resource System (CHEERS) model. The two predicting techniques reduce the computational time to evaluate annual revenue for one set of battery configurations from 3 h to 1 to 4 min per run while also being implementable with significantly less data. The model validation prediction errors of developed GAMs and ML models are generally below 5%; for model testing predictions, the ML models consistently outperform the regression equations in terms of root mean square errors. This new approach allows plant owners, operators, or potential investors to quickly access multiple battery configurations under different energy generation and market scenarios. This new revenue prediction method will therefore help reduce the barriers, and thereby promoting the deployment of battery hybridization with existing renewable energy sources.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

Introducing the embedded random phase approximation: H 2 dissociative adsorption on Cu(111) as an exemplar

The random phase approximation (RPA) as a means of treating electron correlation recently has been shown to outperform standard density functional theory (DFT) approximations in a variety of cases. However, the computational cost of the RPA is substantially more than DFT, especially when aiming to study extended surfaces. Properly accounting for sufficient surface ensemble size, Brillouin zone sampling, and vacuum separation of periodic images in standard periodic-planewave-based DFT code raises the cost to achieve converged results. Here, we show that sub-system embedding schemes enable use of the RPA for modeling heterogeneous reactions at reduced computational cost. Further, we explore two different embedded RPA (emb-RPA) approaches, periodic emb-RPA and cluster emb-RPA. We use the (experimentally and theoretically) well-studied H 2 dissociative adsorption on Cu(111) as our exemplar, and first perform full periodic RPA calculations as a benchmark. The full RPA results match well the semi-empirical barrier fit to experimental observables and others derived from high-level computations, e.g., from recent embedded n-electron valence second order perturbation theory [Zhao et al., J. Chem. Theory Comput. 16(11), 7078–7088 (2020)] and quantum Monte Carlo [Doblhoff-Dier et al., J. Chem. Theory Comput. 13(7), 3208–3219 (2017)] simulations. Among the two emb-RPA approaches tested, the cluster emb-RPA accurately reproduces the energy profile (maximum error of 50 meV along the reaction pathway) while reducing the computational cost by approximately two orders of magnitude. We therefore expect that the embedded cluster approach will enable wider RPA implementation in heterogeneous catalysis.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

FORGE: Pre-Training Open Foundation Models for Science

Large language models (LLMs) are poised to revolutionize the way we conduct scientific research. However, both model complexity and pre-training cost are impeding effective adoption for the wider science community. Identifying suitable scientific use cases, finding the optimal balance between model and data sizes, and scaling up model training are among the most pressing issues that need to be addressed. In this study, we provide practical solutions for building and using LLM-based foundation models targeting scientific research use cases. We present an end-to-end examination of the effectiveness of LLMs in scientific research, including their scaling behavior and computational requirements on Frontier, the first Exascale supercomputer. We have also developed for release to the scientific community a suite of open foundation models called FORGE with up to 26B parameters using 257B tokens from over 200M scientific articles, with performance either on par or superior to other state-of-the-art comparable models. We have demonstrated the use and effectiveness of FORGE on scientific downstream tasks. Our research establishes best practices that can be applied across various fields to take advantage of LLMs for scientific discovery.

Yin, Junqi↗

A Phase-Field Model for In-Space Manufacturing of Binary Alloys

The integrity of the final printed components is mostly dictated by the adhesion between the particles and phases that form upon solidification, which is a major problem in printing metallic parts using available In-Space Manufacturing (ISM) technologies based on the Fused Deposition Modeling (FDM) methodology. Understanding the melting/solidification process helps increase particle adherence and allows to produce components with greater mechanical integrity. We developed a phase-field model of solidification for binary alloys. The phase-field approach is unique in capturing the microstructure with computationally tractable costs. The developed phase-field model of solidification of binary alloys satisfies the stability conditions at all temperatures. The suggested model is tuned for Ni-Cu alloy feedstocks. We derived the Ginzburg-Landau equations governing the phase transformation kinetics and solved them analytically for the dilute solution. We calculated the concentration profile as a function of interface velocity for a one-dimensional steady-state diffuse interface neglecting elasticity and obtained the partition coefficient, k, as a function of interface velocity. Numerical simulations for the diluted solution are used to study the interface velocity as a function of undercooling for the classic sharp interface model, partitionless solidification, and thin interface.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Assessing the Potential for Improved Lubricants to Reduce Wind O&M Costs

Lubrication is a key aspect of maintaining a wind turbine in operational condition. In this study, we quantify the potential for increasing energy production and reducing maintenance costs across the current and future U.S. fleet of wind turbines as a result of improvements in lubrication performance. The modeled improvements reduce the median levelized cost of energy by 1-2% across the U.S. fleet. Extending the lubricant replacement interval has a larger impact on total cost and energy production than reducing lubricant cost.

ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATION,↗

Optimizing design and dispatch of a renewable energy system with combined heat and power

We embellish a mixed-integer program that prescribes a set of renewable energy, conventional generation, and storage technologies to procure, along with a corresponding dispatch strategy. Specifically, we add combined heat and power to this set. The model minimizes fixed and operational costs less incentives for the use of various technologies, subject to a series of component interoperability and system-wide constraints. The resulting mixed-integer linear program contains hundreds of thousands of variables and constraints. We demonstrate how to efficiently formulate and solve the corresponding instances such that we produce near-optimal solutions in minutes. A previous rendition of the model required hours of solution time for the same instances.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Techno-Economic Analysis for Shear Assisted Processing and Extrusion (ShAPE) of High Strength Aluminum Alloys

Aluminum alloy 7075 (AA7075) is a high strength aluminum alloy (HSAL), attractive for applications such as automotive, aviation, aerospace, defense, and marine applications. However, AA7075 has not yet been widely adopted due slow extrusion speed, high energy use, narrow process window, and sensitivity to incipient melting common in conventional extrusion methods. Alternative extrusion methods may overcome these limitations. New research funded by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Advanced Manufacturing Office (AMO) is exploring the use of a new SPP approach called Shear Assisted Processing and Extrusion (ShAPE) for the manufacture of AA7075 extrusions. Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) are leading the development, testing and characterization of ShAPE, which is showing that high speed ShAPE extrusions (e.g., above 12 meters/min) which is significantly faster than the 1-2 meters/min possible with conventional AA7075 extrusions. Initial findings from the economic and energy analysis indicate that AA7075 tubes created with ShAPE use less energy than tubes that are conventionally heated and extruded. The reduction in energy use is primarily a result of using direct chill cast (non-homogenized) billets, eliminating the pre-heating step, and faster extrusion speeds. The TEA model translates CAPEX and O&M costs to a manufacturing cost, and then a minimum sustainable price (MSP) per ton of extruded product for multiple facility capacities. A sample output figure of the TEA model is presented below. It presents results of the preliminary version of the TEA model.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Expanded verification and validation studies of hypersonic aerodynamics with multiple physics-fidelity models

Hypersonic aerothermodynamics is an important domain of modern multiphysics simulation. The Multi-Fidelity Toolkit is a simulation tool being developed at Sandia National Laboratories to predict aerodynamic properties for compressible flows from a range of physics fidelities and computational speeds. These models include the Reynolds-averaged Navier–Stokes (RANS) equations, the Euler equations with momentum-energy integral technique (MEIT), and modified Newtonian aerodynamics with flat-plate boundary layer (MNA+FPBL) equations, and they can be invoked independently or coupled with hierarchical Kriging to interpolate between high-fidelity simulations using lower-fidelity data. However, as with any new simulation capability, verification and validation are necessary to gather credibility evidence. This work describes formal code- and solution-verification activities, as well as model validation with uncertainty considerations. Code verification activities on the MNA+FPBL model build on previous work by focusing on the viscous portion of the model. Viscous quantities of interest are compared against those from an analytical solution for flat-plate, inclined-plate, and cone geometries. The code verification methodology for the MEIT model is also presented. Test setup and results of code verification tests on the laminar and turbulent models within MEIT are shown. Solution-verification activities include grid-refinement studies on simulations that model the HIFiRE-1 wind tunnel experiments. These experiments are used for validation of all model fidelities. A thorough validation comparison with prediction error and uncertainty is also presented. Three additional HIFiRE-1 experimental runs are simulated in this study, and the solution verification and validation work examines the effects of the associated parameter changes on model performance. Finally, a study is presented that compares the computational costs and fidelities from each of the different models.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Development of a compressive failure model for carbon fiber composites and associated uncertainties.

An approach to increase the value of carbon fiber for wind turbines blades, and other compressive strength driven designs, is to identify pathways to increase its cost-specific compressive strength. A finite element model has been developed to evaluate the predictiveness of current finite element methods and to lay groundwork for future studies that focus on improving the cost-specific compressive strength. Parametric studies are conducted to understand which uncertainties in the model inputs have the greatest impact on compressive strength predictions. Furthermore, a statistical approach is also presented that enables the micromechanical model, which is deterministic, to efficiently account for statistical variability in the fiber misalignment present in composite materials; especially if the results from the hexagonal and square pack models are averaged. The model was found to agree well with experimental results for a Zoltek PX-35 pultrusion. The sensitivity studies suggest that the fiber packing and the interface shear strength have the greatest impact on compressive strength prediction for the fiber reinforced polymer studied here. Based on the performance of the modeling approach presented in this work, it is deemed sufficient for future work which will seek to identify carbon fiber composites with improved cost-specific compressive strength.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

A gradient-based deep neural network model for simulating multiphase flow in porous media

We report simulation of multiphase flow in porous media is crucial for the effective management of subsurface energy and environment-related activities. The numerical simulators used for modeling such processes rely on spatial and temporal discretization of the governing mass and energy balance partial-differential equations (PDEs) into algebraic systems via finite-difference/volume/element methods. These simulators usually require dedicated software development and maintenance, and suffer low efficiency from a runtime and memory standpoint for problems with multi-scale heterogeneity, coupled-physics processes or fluids with complex phase behavior. Therefore, developing cost-effective, data-driven models can become a practical choice, and in this work, we choose deep learning approaches as they can handle high dimensional data and accurately predict state variables with strong nonlinearity. In this paper, we describe a gradient-based deep neural network (GDNN) constrained by the physics related to multiphase flow in porous media. We tackle the nonlinearity of flow in porous media induced by rock heterogeneity, fluid properties, and fluid-rock interactions by decomposing the nonlinear PDEs into a dictionary of elementary differential operators. We use a combination of operators to handle rock spatial heterogeneity and fluid flow by advection. Since the augmented differential operators are inherently related to the physics of fluid flow, we treat them as first principles prior knowledge to regularize the GDNN training. We use the example of pressure management at geologic CO 2 storage sites, where CO 2 is injected in saline aquifers and brine is produced, and apply GDNN to construct a predictive model that is trained with physics-based simulation data and emulates the physics process. We demonstrate that GDNN can effectively predict the nonlinear patterns of subsurface responses, including the temporal and spatial evolution of the pressure and saturation plumes. We also successfully extend the GDNN to convolutional neural network (CNN), namely gradient-based CNN (GCNN), and validate its capability to improve the prediction accuracy. GDNN has great potential to tackle challenging problems that are governed by highly nonlinear physics and enable the development of data-driven models with higher fidelity.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Modeling and Calibration of Supplier Selection Problem in Freight Agent-Based Simulations

Freight transportation modeling often struggles with data limitations, especially in accurately representing complex supplier selection processes and their impact on network flows. This research addresses this critical gap by developing a large-scale, calibrated agent-based model for supplier selection, complemented by a probabilistic heuristic for international shipments. Our approach integrates trade relationships between industry sectors, transportation costs, and a supplier-rating model adapted from existing literature. The model’s core objective is to minimize the discrepancy between modeled and observed commodity flows while ensuring a close match to regional shipping distance distributions. Implemented and tested across four major U.S. metropolitan areas—Atlanta, Chicago, Dallas–Fort Worth, and Los Angeles—the model demonstrates high fidelity in replicating observed freight patterns. Key findings reveal consistent alignment with national shipping distance trends and highlight significant spatial variations in commodity trade assignments and demand across the study regions. This behaviorally informed and transport-sensitive framework is designed to approximate real-world decision making, providing a robust tool for policymakers and planners to evaluate targeted interventions, assess infrastructure investments, and enhance supply chain resilience in the face of disruptions.

Ismael, Abdelrahman (ORCID:0000000303712110)↗