SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “conditional probability”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

SourceResearch connectionFrom yearThrough year

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 1,009 records · Page 56

All sources NASA NTRS DOE OSTI

DOE OSTI2025

The Effect of Updraft Entrainment on Convective Cell Deepening in Realistic Large-Eddy Simulations

Entrainment of surrounding cooler and drier air into convective updrafts is one of the key processes that influence deep convection initiation and growth. Numerous studies have investigated the effect of entrainment on isolated convective cloud growth in idealized simulations, but the importance of this effect in realistic conditions with many interacting convective clouds remains uncertain. We examine the impact of entrainment on the depth reached by convective clouds in realistic large-eddy simulations (LES) over central Argentina during the Cloud, Aerosol, and Complex Terrain Interactions (CACTI) field campaign. Cloudy updrafts and their associated properties are assigned to convective cells tracked with radar reflectivity signatures. Several thousand convective cells are tracked over two high convective available potential energy (CAPE) and two low CAPE cases that support cells of varying depths and intensities. Entrainment is calculated explicitly as the fluxes of air into the outer surface of each cloudy updraft. Single-predictor logistic regression models are used to determine the relative importance of updraft, near-updraft, and preconvective initiation atmospheric conditions in predicting whether convective cells become deep. We then build a multiple-predictor regression model pairing important updraft and meteorological metrics with fractional entrainment rate. The probability of cells transitioning to deep convection is most sensitive to ambient 600-hPa relative humidity (42% of total metric contribution to cloud depth predictability), followed by low-level CAPE (28%), cloud-base updraft width (19%), and fractional entrainment (11%). Thus, the initial width of the updraft along with potential buoyancy and its dilution through the midtroposphere collectively determine whether deep convection will result from shallower clouds.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Evaluation of Foster Dam Juvenile Fish Passage, 2018 (Final Report)

This report presents the results of a fish passage study conducted by the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) for the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers Portland District (USACE) at Foster Dam (herein, Foster) during the spring (March–June) and fall (October–December) of 2018. The goal of this study was to provide biologists, engineers, resource managers, and regional decision-makers with information about passage of juvenile Chinook salmon and juvenile steelhead (or appropriate surrogates) through specific routes at Foster. The results of this study are intended to help facilitate decision-making regarding long-term measures for enhancing salmonid passage at Foster. Radio telemetry (RT) methods were instituted at low winter reservoir forebay elevation (low pool, 613 ft mean sea level (msl); spring 2018 and fall 2018) and high summer reservoir forebay elevation (high pool, 635 ft msl; late spring and early summer 2018) to accomplish the following objectives: I. Estimate the following passage metrics under typical operations (i.e., baseline conditions): a. Overall dam-passage survival and survival specific to each route of dam passage, calculated using two different methods: i. Cormack-Jolly-Seber (CJS) estimate: Probability of survival from dam passage to detection at the Primary Array, 19 river kilometers (rkm) downstream of Foster. ii. Virtual Release/Dead Fish Correction (ViRDCt) estimate: Corrects the bias that occurs from misidentifying fish that did not survive dam-passage as alive at the tailrace Egress Array, allowing an estimate of survival from dam passage to this array, 2.5 rkm downstream of Foster. b. Route distribution (passage proportions by route; also known as “passage efficiencies”). c. Efficiency metrics i. Dam-passage efficiency (DPE), the proportion of total fish passing the dam relative to the number of total fish detected in the near forebay of the dam and therefore available to pass. ii. Fish passage efficiency (FPE), the proportion of fish passing via a non-turbine route, relative to the number of total fish in the near forebay and available to pass. iii. Fish weir efficiency (FWE) and spill bay efficiency (SBE), the proportion of fish passing the weir or spill bays, respectively, relative to the total number of fish passing the dam. d. Reservoir residency time (time elapsed between release into reservoir and dam passage) and travel times through the system. II. Estimate efficiency and effectiveness of the new fish weir, compared to the turbines and the spillway. III. Under alternative operations, compare passage through each route (turbines, weir, spillway) using a block/treatment (on/off) design similar to the 2015 and 2016 studies. IV. Estimate efficiency of the new fish weir operating at a low level of discharge (< 500 cfs) and a high level of discharge (= 500 cfs), as well as dam passage survival at each weir discharge level. V. Evaluate survival and behavior of hatchery summer steelhead to wild surrogate winter steelhead for potential use of summer steelhead as a surrogate species winter steelhead. VI. Evaluate juvenile passage rates in the auxiliary water supply (AWS), forebay water supply (FWS), and hatchery water supply (HWS).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1975

Inelastic scattering in atom-diatomic molecule collisions. II - Effect of rotation on vibrational transition

Rotational and vibrational transitions in a diatomic molecule caused by collisions with an atom are analyzed by a semiclassical method for conditions where the rotational transitions can be handled well by the sudden approximation and the vibrational transitions belong to the adiabatic regime. The contribution to the vibrational transition probability from the correction, which takes the finite value of the spacing between rotational energy levels into account, is examined.-

Stallcop, J. R.↗

NASA NTRS1994

Transportation of volatile elements in thermally evolving planetesimals: An important role of metallic iron

Ordinary chondrites are considered to have experienced thermal metamorphism in small bodies. We are interested in behaviors of volatile elements in such a kind of thermally evolving planetesimals. Volatile elements generally have high vapor pressures at high temperature. In porous bodies, with a high gas permeability, volatile elements are transported efficiently over a long range. Behavior of volatile elements transported by permeable gas flow can be handled by an equation whose form is similar to that of the equation of thermal diffusion. We can follow transportation of heats and volatile elements in planetesimals, when parameters in these equations, initial conditions and chemical behavior of volatile elements are given. Recently, we discovered that nitrogen in equilibrated H-chondrites is mainly trapped in taenite (f.c.c. Fe-Ni), probably dissolved in interstitial sites. Fegley suggests that metallic iron cannot trap nitrogen in the solar nebula gas due to its very low nitrogen partial pressure. Approximately 1 bar of nitrogen pressure is required to explain the nitrogen content in taenite. We may expect high nitrogen gas partial pressure (possibly produced by vaporization of nitrogen-bearing solids such as organic materials) at the interior of thermally evolving planetesimals. Kinetic behavior of nitrogen in taenite suggests that it can easily be equilibrated with the ambient nitrogen gas at temperatures of approximately 500 C or higher. We consider that nitrogen is trapped in taenite through a nitrogen redistribution process occurred during the thermal metamorphic event.

Hashizume, K.↗

DOE OSTI2022

Factors influencing pregnancy, litter size, and reproductive parameters of invasive wild pigs

Abstract Reproduction is the most energetically expensive life stage with the demands of productivity representing a balance between physiological requirements and environmental conditions. Wild pigs ( Sus scrofa ) throughout most of North America are genetic hybrids of feral domestic pigs and wild boar and have the highest reproductive potential of any wild ungulate. The phenology of reproduction, extent of multiple reproductive events per year, how individual and extrinsic factors contribute to variability in productivity, and impact of genetic lineage on these parameters is not well understood in wild pigs. We quantified reproductive parameters in wild pigs relative to a suite of individual and environmental attributes across seasons and multiple years in South Carolina, USA, from March 2017 and May 2020. We hypothesized that individual attributes (mass, age class, number of teats, rump fat, relative genetic association to wild boar vs. domestic pigs) and extrinsic factors (mast availability) would influence probability of pregnancy and fetal litter size. Wild pigs produced offspring throughout all months with peaks in conception corresponding to a seasonal pulse in food availability. The likelihood of pregnancy was influenced by female mass and nutritional condition and was greatest during years with abundant resources. Similarly, litter size increased with female mass and age, implying larger and older females represent the most important group for population recruitment. In evaluating the relationship between reproductive output and ancestral associations to domestic pigs versus wild boar, the proportion of wild boar ancestry was not an important influence on productivity in our population. We determined juveniles reach a physiological threshold of sexual maturity at approximately 30 kg. Average litter size was comparable to other populations, and wild pigs maintain an average fetal litter size of 5.43 offspring despite 13.6% embryonic mortality. A thorough understanding of biotic and extrinsic factors influencing reproduction are important for realistic population models, which are necessary for identifying areas to focus management needs and implementation.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1993

Solar wind conditions in the outer heliosphere and the distance to the termination shock

The Plasma Science experiment on the Voyager 2 spacecraft has measured the properties of solar wind protons from 1 to 40.4 AU. We use these observations to discuss the probable location and motion of the termination shock of the solar wind. Assuming that the interstellar pressure is due to a 5 micro-G magnetic field draped over the upstream face of the heliopause, the radial variation of ram pressure implies that the termination shock will be located at an average distance near 89 AU. This distance scales inversely as the assumed field strength. There are also large variations in ram pressure on time scales of tens of days, due primarily to large variations in solar wind density at a given radius. Such rapid changes in the solar wind ram pressure can cause large perturbations in the location of the termination shock. We study the nonequilibrium location of the termination shock as it responds to these ram pressure changes. The results of this study suggest that the position of the termination shock can vary by as much as 10 AU in a single year, depending on the nature of variations in the ram pressure, and that multiple crossings of the termination shock by a given outer heliosphere spacecraft are likely. After the first crossing, such models of shock motion will be useful for predicting the timing of subsequent crossings.

Belcher, John W.↗

DOE OSTI2022

Preparing exact eigenstates of the open XXZ chain on a quantum computer

The open spin-1/2 XXZ spin chain with diagonal boundary magnetic fields is the paradigmatic example of a quantum integrable model with open boundary conditions. Here, we formulate a quantum algorithm for preparing Bethe states of this model, corresponding to real solutions of the Bethe equations. The algorithm is probabilistic, with a success probability that decreases with the number of down spins. For a Bethe state of L spins with M down spins, which contains a total of $(^{L}_{M})$ $2^{M} M!$ terms, the algorithm requires L+M 2 +2M qubits.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

DOE OSTI2022

Bias on tensor-to-scalar ratio inference with estimated covariance matrices

ABSTRACT We investigate simulation-based bandpower covariance matrices commonly used in cosmological parameter inferences such as the estimation of the tensor-to-scalar ratio r. We find that upper limits on r can be biased low by tens of per cent. The underestimation of the upper limit is most severe when the number of simulation realizations is similar to the number of observables. Convergence of the covariance-matrix estimation can require a number of simulations an order of magnitude larger than the number of observables, which could mean $\mathcal {O}(10\ 000)$ simulations. This is found to be caused by an additional scatter in the posterior probability of r due to Monte Carlo noise in the estimated bandpower covariance matrix, in particular, by spurious non-zero off-diagonal elements. We show that matrix conditioning can be a viable mitigation strategy in the case that legitimate covariance assumptions can be made.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

NASA NTRS1983

Multiple origins of life

There is some indication that life may have originated readily under primitive earth conditions. If there were multiple origins of life, the result could have been a polyphyletic biota today. Using simple stochastic models for diversification and extinction, we conclude: (1) the probability of survival of life is low unless there are multiple origins, and (2) given survival of life and given as many as 10 independent origins of life, the odds are that all but one would have gone extinct, yielding the monophyletic biota we have now. The fact of the survival of our particular form of life does not imply that it was unique or superior.

Raup, D. M.↗

NASA NTRS1985

Reliability of void detection in structural ceramics using scanning laser acoustic microscopy

The reliability of scanning laser acoustic microscopy (SLAM) for detecting surface voids in structural ceramic test specimens was statistically evaluated. Specimens of sintered silicon nitride and sintered silicon carbide, seeded with surface voids, were examined by SLAM at an ultrasonic frequency of 100 MHz in the as fired condition and after surface polishing. It was observed that polishing substantially increased void detectability. Voids as small as 100 micrometers in diameter were detected in polished specimens with 0.90 probability at a 0.95 confidence level. In addition, inspection times were reduced up to a factor of 10 after polishing. The applicability of the SLAM technique for detection of naturally occurring flaws of similar dimensions to the seeded voids is discussed. A FORTRAN program listing is given for calculating and plotting flaw detection statistics.

Roth, D. J.↗

NASA NTRS1986

Reliability of void detection in structural ceramics by use of scanning laser acoustic microscopy

Roth, D. J.↗

NASA NTRS1987

On the lack of commensurabilities in the mean motions of the satellites of Uranus and the resurfacing of Ariel

The lack of commensurabilites among the mean motion of the satellites of Uranus is investigated by determining the probabilities of capture into those orbital resonances which might be encountered as the satellite orbits expand differentially from tidal torques. An alternate to this is investigated to evaluate the conditions necessary to allow sufficient tidal heating of Ariel for the observed resurfacing.

Peale, S. J.↗

NASA NTRS2016

Ceres Revealed in a Grain of Salt

Introduction: Zag and Monahans (1998) are H chondrite regolith breccias containing 4.5 giga-year-old halite crystals which contain abundant inclusions of aqueous fluids, solids and organics. These all originated on a cryo-volcanically-active C class asteroid, probably 1 Ceres; the halite was transported to the regolith of the H chondrite parent asteroid, potentially 6 Hebe. Detailed analysis of these solids will thus potentially reveal the mineralogy of Ceres. Mineralogy of solids in the Monahans Halite Solid grains are present in the halites, which were entrained within the mother brines during eruption, including material from the interior and surface of the erupting body. The solids include abundant, widely variable organics that could not have been significantly heated (which would have resulted in the loss of fluids from the halite). Our analyses by Raman microprobe, SEM/EDX, synchrotron X-ray diffraction, UPLC-FD/QToF-MS, C-XANES and TEM reveal that these trapped grains include macromolecular carbon (MMC) similar in structure to CV3 chondrite matrix carbon, aliphatic carbon compounds, olivine (Fo99-59), high- and low-Ca pyroxene, feldspars, phyllosilicates, magnetite, sulfides, metal, lepidocrocite, carbonates, diamond, apatite and zeolites. Conclusions: The halite in Monahans and Zag derive from a water and carbon-rich object that was cryo-volcanically active in the early solar system, probably Ceres. The Dawn spacecraft found that Ceres includes C chondrite materials. Our samples include both protolith and aqueously-altered samples of the body, permitting understanding of alteration conditions. Whatever the halite parent body, it was rich in a wide variety of organics and warm, liquid water at the solar system's dawn.

Zolensky, M. E.↗

DOE OSTI2025

Dehydroxylation kinetics of kaolinite and montmorillonite examined using isoconversional methods

The use of calcined clays as supplementary cementitious materials (SCMs) in concrete is a promising strategy towards decarbonizing the cement and concrete industry. This is especially relevant considering the ever-increasing demand for concrete. Comprehensive understanding of the kinetics of calcination is essential towards maximizing the potential reactivity of clay minerals while ensuring energy efficiency. In this study, the kinetics of the dehydroxylation of kaolinite and montmorillonite are investigated under non-isothermal conditions at constant heating rate. Activation energies ( E a ) are determined via Friedman differential and advanced Vyazovkin incremental methods over the isoconversional range; these are devoid of computational approximations, thus allowing kinetic analysis without assuming a specific reaction model. Kinetic equations—in the differential form as well as a combination of differential and integral forms are compared against the experimentally determined reaction models to identify the most probable dehydroxylation mechanism for kaolinite and montmorillonite. A reaction order mechanism is established for dehydroxylation of kaolinite, while montmorillonite is noted to undergo dehydroxylation via a single-step reversible diffusion-controlled process. Kinetic triplet—comprising activation energy, reaction model and pre-exponential factor—is used to predict isothermal calcination conditions, which is further verified using analytical techniques. Heat release rates of clay-portlandite blends from isothermal calorimetry are used within a thermodynamic framework to quantify reactivity of the calcined clays. Here, the study demonstrates a general approach based on isoconversional methods to predict calcination conditions for different clays that can be used in efficient and optimized production of blended cements or SCMs.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2022

EGS Stimulation Design with Uncertainty Quantification at the EGS Collab Site

Engineering a robust hydraulic connection between wells is one of the most difficult aspects of enhanced geothermal systems (EGS). Designing and constructing such hydraulic connections requires and understanding of the in situ state of stress and the heterogeneities and discontinuities that naturally exist and may control the stimulation. Even with comprehensive stress and formation characterization programs substantial uncertainty remains in these key parameters. This is especially the case in high-temperature EGS environments where drilling conditions are often difficult and a far fewer logging and testing options are available. This paper presents a new approach for explicitly quantifying the uncertainties in the state of stress using a Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo method. This approach produces a probability distribution for the stress tensor, including a general 3D orientation, that reflects the uncertainties in all the observations or indicators used to constrain the stress state. This method is demonstrated on the characterization data for the EGS Collab Experiment 2 site. The output of the analysis is used to guide the design of the planned stimulations. In the case of research projects like EGS Collab, explicitly quantifying the uncertainties in the stress state allow for more rigorous hypothesis testing by allowing conclusions drawn from the experiments to be interpreted in the context of the uncertain knowledge about conditions in the test bed.

Burghardt, Jeffrey A.↗

DOE OSTI2022

An indirect approach to optimize the reaction rates of thermal NO formation for diesel engines

With stringent emission regulations, it has become more important for modern diesel engine manufacturers to accurately predict engine-out nitrogen oxide (NO x ) emissions across a wide range of operating conditions. Thermal NO is the major source of engine-out NO x in modern diesel engines. For thermal NO formation, several earlier studies have recommended the forward and reverse reaction rate coefficients of the rate-limiting reaction (O + N 2 ⇌ NO + N). However, due to deficiencies in sub-models and inadequacies of reduced chemical mechanisms to represent diesel combustion, these recommended values more often than not need to be adjusted in reduced order combustion models to accurately predict engine-out NO x . Hence, in this work a systematic and computationally efficient approach has been proposed to streamline the process of determining the optimum reaction rate coefficients. Here, to develop the optimization approach, four different production diesel engines with different operating conditions in terms of speed, load, and exhaust-gas recirculation have been considered. Numerical simulations have been performed using a detailed zero-dimensional velocity-composition-frequency transported probability density function (0D-VCF-tPDF) model that uses hundreds of notional particles to capture in-cylinder stratification. Four different combinations of hydrocarbon and NO x chemical mechanisms were used to represent chemistry. It was found that for the rate-limiting reaction, the pre-exponent factors (A f1 , A r1 ) and activation energies (E A,f1 , E A,r1 ) of the forward and reverse reaction rates follow a linear band in A f1 - E A,f1 and A r1 - E A,r1 space where predicted engine-out NO x match the measured values closely. By encompassing such bands from different engines and considering constraints on activation energies, a reduced search domain of pre-exponent factors and activation energies was constructed that is expected to be applicable to any diesel engine. Eventually, computationally efficient three-line and one-line search approaches were proposed to determine the optimum values of the pre-exponent factors and activation energies that led to a minimum error between measured and predicted engine-out NO x . Finally, these three-line and one-line NO x optimization approaches were applied to a fifth production diesel engine for which the 0D-VCF-tPDF model showed a very good predictive performance in terms of predicting peak pressure, 50% burn rate, and engine-out NO x when compared to measured and 3D-CFD values.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

DOE OSTI2020

Analysis of useful ion yield for Si in GaN by secondary ion mass spectrometry

The optimum detection levels that can be achieved by a secondary ion mass spectrometer are dependent on how efficiently a particular species of interest can be ionized and detected. One can determine in advance whether the analysis of a particular ion in the sample is possible, if the useful ion yield is known. The useful ion yield depends on the element, instrument transmission, the analytical conditions, the sample matrix, etc. The value of the useful ion yield for a species can diverge from one instrument type to another due to its different transmission and ionization probabilities. However, the same tendencies in the results may be expected for all types of instruments. In this paper, the authors present a quantitative secondary ion mass spectrometry analysis of the useful ion yield for the silicon dopant species in a gallium nitride matrix grown by metal organic chemical vapor deposition. Positively ionized cesium was used as the primary ion beam, and its energy was varied in the range from 0.5 to 5 kV. A quadrupole mass analyzer was utilized to collect secondary ion species of interest. The analysis results can be used to determine the primary beam energies for optimal Si sensitivity.

Senevirathna, M. K. Indika (ORCID:0000000243575029↗

DOE OSTI2025

Bayesian And Human Reliability Analysis (hra)-aided Method For The Reliability Analysis Of Software (bahamas)

The purpose of the BAHAMAS code is to provide a simplified process for performing quantitative evaluations of software reliability. The Bayesian and Human Reliability Analysis (HRA)-Aided method for the Reliability Analysis of software (BAHAMAS) was developed specifically to perform quantification under limited data conditions, i.e., when limited testing or operational data are available, such as during early development stages. BAHAMAS essentially examines the quality of a software development life cycle to determine the probability of specific types of software failure. BAHAMAS will have modules to support user input for detailed and simplified analyses. The user interface will also support software common cause failure analysis.

Wang, Congjian (0000000207789927)↗