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At least 1,009 records · Page 56

Tree Diversity, Site Index, and Carbon Storage Decrease With Aridity in Douglas-Fir Forests in Western Canada

Forests are important for biodiversity, timber production and carbon accumulation, but these ecosystem services may be impacted by climate change. Field data collected from individual forest types occurring across a climatic gradient can contribute to forecasting these consequences. We examined how changes in temperature, precipitation and aridity affect ecosystem services in 23 mature Douglas-fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii) forests in nine climatic regions across a 900 km gradient in British Columbia, Canada. Using Canadian National Forest Inventory methodology, we assessed richness and diversity of plant functional groups, site index, and above- and below-ground carbon stocks. As aridity increased, ecosystem-level tree species richness declined on average from four to one species, Douglas-fir site index declined from 30 to 15 m, and ecosystem carbon storage decreased from 565 to 222 Mg ha –1 . Tree species richness was positively and herb species richness negatively correlated with carbon storage. Carbon storage by ecosystem compartment was largest in aboveground live tree biomass, declining in the following order: mineral soils > coarse woody debris and dead standing trees > forest floor > small and fine woody debris > understory plants. Mineral soil carbon at depths of 0-15 cm, 15-35 cm, and 35-55 cm increased with increasing mean annual precipitation and decreasing aridity. Our results indicate that as aridity increases and precipitation decreases, tree species richness, site index and carbon storage in existing Douglas-fir forests declines. However, assisted or natural migration of Douglas-fir into more humid regions could be associated with more diverse, productive, carbon-rich forests. This study informs carbon stock vulnerability and provides empirical data essential for carbon stock forecasts.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Long-Term Climatic Variations in the Almati Oblast in Central Asian Kazakhstan: Correlations between National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Reanalysis II Results and Oblast Meteorological Station Data from 1949 to the Present

As part of a larger analysis of country systems described elsewhere, named a Crop Country Inventory, CCI, large variations in annual crop yield for selected climate sensitive agricultural regions or sub-regions within a country have been studied over extended periods in decades. These climate sensitive regions, principally responsible for large annual variations in an entire country s crop production, generally are characterized by distinctive patterns of atmospheric circulation and synoptic processes that result in large seasonal fluctuations in temperature, precipitation and soil moisture as well as other climate properties. The immediate region of interest is drought prone Kazakhstan in Central Asia, part of the Former Soviet Union, FSU. As a partial validation test in a dry southern region of Kazakhstan, the Almati Oblast was chosen. The Almati Oblast, a sub-region of Kazakhstan located in its southeast corner, is one of 14 oblasts within the Republic of Kazahstan. The climate data set used to characterize this region was taken from the results of the current maturely developed Global Climate Model, GCM. In this paper, the GCM results have been compared to the meteorological station data at the station locations, over various periods. If the empirical correlation of the data sets from both the GCM and station data is sufficiently significant, this would validate the use of the superior GCM profile mapping and integration for the climatic characterization of a sub-region. Precipitation values interpolated from NCEP Reanalysis II data, a global climate database spanning over 5 decades since 1949, have been statistically correlated with monthly-averaged station data from 1949 through 1993, and with daily station data from April through August, 1990 for the Almati Oblast in Kazakhstan. The resultant correlation is significant, which implies that the methodology may be extended to different regions globally for Crop Country Inventory studies.

Welker, Jean E.↗

Demonstrating the Error Budget for the Climate Absolute Radiance and Refractivity Observatory Through Solar Irradiance Measurements

The Climate Absolute Radiance and Refractivity Observatory (CLARREO) mission addresses the need to observe highaccuracy, long-term climate change trends and to use decadal change observations as a method to determine the accuracy of climate change. A CLARREO objective is to improve the accuracy of SI-traceable, absolute calibration at infrared and reflected solar wavelengths to reach on-orbit accuracies required to allow climate change observations to survive data gaps and observe climate change at the limit of natural variability. Such an effort will also demonstrate National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) approaches for use in future spaceborne instruments. The current work describes the results of laboratory and field measurements with the Solar, Lunar for Absolute Reflectance Imaging Spectroradiometer (SOLARIS) which is the calibration demonstration system (CDS) for the reflected solar portion of CLARREO. SOLARIS allows testing and evaluation of calibration approaches, alternate design and/or implementation approaches and components for the CLARREO mission. SOLARIS also provides a test-bed for detector technologies, non-linearity determination and uncertainties, and application of future technology developments and suggested spacecraft instrument design modifications. Results of laboratory calibration measurements are provided to demonstrate key assumptions about instrument behavior that are needed to achieve CLARREO's climate measurement requirements. Absolute radiometric response is determined using laser-based calibration sources and applied to direct solar views for comparison with accepted solar irradiance models to demonstrate accuracy values giving confidence in the error budget for the CLARREO reflectance retrieval.

CLARREO↗

Assessment of Satellite Radiometry in the Visible Domain

Marine reflectance and chlorophyll-a concentration are listed among the Essential Climate Variables by the Global Climate Observing System. To contribute to climate research, the satellite ocean color data records resulting from successive missions need to be consistent and well characterized in terms of uncertainties. This chapter reviews various approaches that can be used for the assessment of satellite ocean color data. Good practices for validating satellite products with in situ data and the current status of validation results are illustrated. Model-based approaches and inter-comparison techniques can also contribute to characterize some components of the uncertainty budget, while time series analysis can detect issues with the instrument radiometric characterization and calibration. Satellite data from different missions should also provide a consistent picture in scales of variability, including seasonal and interannual signals. Eventually, the various assessment approaches should be combined to create a fully characterized climate data record from satellite ocean color.

ocean color↗

A Global Repository for Planet-Sized Experiments and Observations

Working across U.S. federal agencies, international agencies, and multiple worldwide data centers, and spanning seven international network organizations, the Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF) allows users to access, analyze, and visualize data using a globally federated collection of networks, computers, and software. Its architecture employs a system of geographically distributed peer nodes that are independently administered yet united by common federation protocols and application programming interfaces (APIs). The full ESGF infrastructure has now been adopted by multiple Earth science projects and allows access to petabytes of geophysical data, including the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) output used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change assessment reports. Data served by ESGF not only include model output (i.e., CMIP simulation runs) but also include observational data from satellites and instruments, reanalyses, and generated images. Metadata summarize basic information about the data for fast and easy data discovery.

Earth Systems Grid Federation (ESGFC)↗

A Global Geographic Information System Data Base of Storm Occurrences and Other Climatic Phenomena Affecting Coastal Zones (1991) (NDP-035)

This NDP is unique in that it represents CDIAC's first offering of ARC/INFOTM export data files and equivalent flat ASCII data files that may be used by raster or vector geographic information systems (GISs). The data set contains 61 variables, including information on tropical storms, hurricanes, super typhoons, extratropical cyclogeneses, polar lows, cyclonicity, influence of winds in monsoon regions, and sea-ice concentrations. Increased availability of source data has made it possible to extend the area of these data variables to regional or global coverages. All data variables except five are referenced to 1° × 1° or 5° × 5° grid cells of latitude and longitude. These data help meet the demand for new and improved climatologies of storm events and may be used in climate research studies, including the verification of general circulation models and the calculation of storm-recurrence intervals.For access to the data files, click this link to the CDIAC data transition website: http://cdiac.ess-dive.lbl.gov/ndps/ndp035.html

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Using Docker Containers to Extend Reproducibility Architecture for the NASA Earth Exchange (NEX)

NASA Earth Exchange (NEX) is a data, supercomputing and knowledge collaboratory that houses NASA satellite, climate and ancillary data where a focused community can come together to address large-scale challenges in Earth sciences. As NEX has been growing into a petabyte-size platform for analysis, experiments and data production, it has been increasingly important to enable users to easily retrace their steps, identify what datasets were produced by which process chains, and give them ability to readily reproduce their results. This can be a tedious and difficult task even for a small project, but is almost impossible on large processing pipelines. We have developed an initial reproducibility and knowledge capture solution for the NEX, however, if users want to move the code to another system, whether it is their home institution cluster, laptop or the cloud, they have to find, build and install all the required dependencies that would run their code. This can be a very tedious and tricky process and is a big impediment to moving code to data and reproducibility outside the original system. The NEX team has tried to assist users who wanted to move their code into OpenNEX on Amazon cloud by creating custom virtual machines with all the software and dependencies installed, but this, while solving some of the issues, creates a new bottleneck that requires the NEX team to be involved with any new request, updates to virtual machines and general maintenance support. In this presentation, we will describe a solution that integrates NEX and Docker to bridge the gap in code-to-data migration. The core of the solution is saemi-automatic conversion of science codes, tools and services that are already tracked and described in the NEX provenance system, to Docker - an open-source Linux container software. Docker is available on most computer platforms, easy to install and capable of seamlessly creating and/or executing any application packaged in the appropriate format. We believe this is an important step towards seamless process deployment in heterogeneous environments that will enhance community access to NASA data and tools in a scalable way, promote software reuse, and improve reproducibility of scientific results.

earth exchange↗

Hydrological Data at the NASA GES DISC: Current Capabilities and New Opportunities

The NASA Goddard Earth Sciences Data and Information Services Center (GES DISC) is one of twelve NASA Earth science data centers that document, process, archive and distribute data from Earth observation missions and projects. GES DISC maintains an archive of several hydrology datasets, including the Land Data Assimilation Systems (LDAS) and the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) Data Assimilation for Drought Monitoring (GRACE-DA-DM) data products. These datasets include model output of heat fluxes, rain, snow, soil temperature, soil moisture, and runoff; and observational forcing data, including surface pressure, temperature, precipitation, downward shortwave and longwave radiation, humidity, and wind. The temporal resolution of the hydrology data at GES DISC ranges from hourly to monthly, and spatial resolutions range from 0.1° to 1.0°. The GES DISC provides services which enable users to aggregate, temporally and spatially subset, regrid, and visualize archived data including the GES DISC Subsetter, Hydrology Data Rods, and the Geospatial Interactive Online Visualization and Analysis Infrastructure (GIOVANNI). The Hydrology Data Rods service optimally reorganizes large hydrological data sets as extended time series, providing more efficient access for the hydrological community. The time series data (aka “data rods”) were integrated into hydrology community tools, such as the Data Rods Explorer on HydroShare. Furthermore, the GES DISC is in the process of migrating its data and services to the cloud. Hydrological data available at the GES DISC are now available in the Amazon Web Services (AWS) cloud (us-west-2 region) providing users Direct S3 data access and the capability for cloud computing operations. In this presentation, the hydrology data products and services currently available at the GES DISC will be summarized. Also discussed are the migration to the cloud, user support through this transition, and the status of migrating the data rods service to the cloud.

Ashley Heath↗

ARM Data-Oriented Metrics and Diagnostics Package for Climate Model Evaluation

A Python-based metrics and diagnostics package is currently being developed by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Infrastructure Team at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) to facilitate the use of long-term, high-frequency measurements from the ARM Facility in evaluating the regional climate simulation of clouds, radiation, and precipitation. This metrics and diagnostics package computes climatological means of targeted climate model simulation and generates tables and plots for comparing the model simulation with ARM observational data. The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) model data sets are also included in the package to enable model intercomparison as demonstrated in Zhang et al. (2017). The mean of the CMIP model can serve as a reference for individual models. Basic performance metrics are computed to measure the accuracy of mean state and variability of climate models. The evaluated physical quantities include cloud fraction, temperature, relative humidity, cloud liquid water path, total column water vapor, precipitation, sensible and latent heat fluxes, and radiative fluxes, with plan to extend to more fields, such as aerosol and microphysics properties. Process-oriented diagnostics focusing on individual cloud- and precipitation-related phenomena are also being developed for the evaluation and development of specific model physical parameterizations. The version 1.0 package is designed based on data collected at ARM’s Southern Great Plains (SGP) Research Facility, with the plan to extend to other ARM sites. The metrics and diagnostics package is currently built upon standard Python libraries and additional Python packages developed by DOE (such as CDMS and CDAT). The ARM metrics and diagnostic package is available publicly with the hope that it can serve as an easy entry point for climate modelers to compare their models with ARM data. In this report, we first present the input data, which constitutes the core content of the metrics and diagnostics package in section 2, and a user's guide documenting the workflow/structure of the version 1.0 codes, and including step-by-step instruction for running the package in section 3.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

IMERG and GPCP Seasonality and Response to Climate and Weather Variability

The Integrated Multi-satellitE Retrievals for GPM (IMERG) and the The Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) are two of the most popular precipitation products. IMERG is a relatively new dataset that targets the needs primarily of the hydrological community by resolving the hydrological cycle of precipitation at fine temporal (30-minutes) and spatial (10-km) scales. IMERG only recently exceeded the user base of the highly successful, but discontinued in 2019, TRMM Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA). GPCP, on the other hand, has traditionally been strong in the climate research community, and recently has been revised under the framework of NASA's Making Earth System Data records for Use in Research Environments (MEaSUREs) program. Both IMERG and GPCP are similar in the underlying approaches to achieve global coverage, in particular using satellite microwave and infrared observations, and adjusting the precipitation retrieval with rain gauge information. While there is a tendency to use both datasets interchangeably, differences remain and some of them limit the usage of IMERG as a climate data record at this point. By applying Principal Component Analysis, we identify the differences and similarities mode-by-mode, and further the guidance on suggested usage of IMERG as a climate data record. As an example in the attached figure, IMERG vs GPSP differences in the explained variance by the two leading seasonal modes can be identified, mainly in the extreme southern latitudes, and over western boundary currents (Gulfstream and Kuroshio). At the preparation time for this presentation, the new version "07"of IMERG was in the works that may resolve the issues presented here. Nevertheless, our analysis can help to gauge the uncertainties of the studies already done using the currently existing IMERG version "06", and evaluate the improvements in the upcoming version "07".

Andrey Savtchenko↗

Developing and Testing a Novel Stochastic Ice Microphysics Parameterization for Cloud and Climate Models Using ARM Field Campaign Data (Final Progress Report)

The major goals of this project were: 1) to use field campaign measurements from DOE’s Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) program to characterize variability of important parameters describing properties of ice particles in the atmosphere; 2) based on this observational analysis, to develop a parameterization scheme for weather and climate models that stochastically varies these parameters, and implement the new scheme into a weather model called the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF); 3) to use WRF coupled with the new stochastic scheme to simulate ARM field campaign thunderstorm cases and analyze how accounting for this parameter variability affects the model simulations. This work was performed jointly between the National Center for Atmospheric Research, University of Oklahoma, and University of Utah. To accomplish these goals, we extended an approach previously developed to characterize the variability in the size distribution of ice particles to parameters that are explicitly represented in models (i.e., relationships between ice particle mass and size, and between particle fall velocity and size). Our project was, to our knowledge, the first to apply observationally-constrained estimates of this parameter variability describing mass-size and fall velocity-size in a modeling framework. Our results showed efficacy of the approach, evaluated using ARM observations. Similarly, to our knowledge, work in this project was the first to propose and evaluate in detail a stochastic approach for unresolved turbulent mixing in high-resolution model simulations against detailed, benchmark large eddy simulations and ARM observations. Results showed some promising behavior, particularly with increased mixing and dilution of air in thunderstorm cores with surrounding environmental air, bringing the stochastic simulations closer to the benchmark large eddy simulations; however, results were somewhat degraded using stochastic mixing compared to observations from the AMIE/DYNAMO field campaign. This project also further refined and applied a modeling methodology called “piggybacking” that can robustly separate dynamical and thermodynamic impacts of model changes, and comparison studies of different models based on cases developed from ARM observations. Finally, this project directly supported three graduate students who completed their PhDs as well as a postdoctoral research fellow.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

ARM data-oriented metrics and diagnostics package for climate model evaluation (ARM-DIAGS-V3) version 3

A Python-based metrics and diagnostics package is currently being developed by the ARM Infrastructure Team at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory to facilitate the use of long-term high frequency measurements from the ARM program in evaluating the regional climate simulation of clouds, radiation, precipitation, and aerosols. This metrics and diagnostics package computes climatological means of targeted climate model simulation and generates tables and plots for comparing the model simulation with ARM observational data. The CMIP model data sets are also included in the package to enable model inter-comparison as demonstrated in Zhang et al. (2018) and Zhang et al. (2020). The mean of the CMIP model can be served as a reference for individual models. Basic performance metrics are computed to measure the accuracy of mean state and variability of climate models. The evaluated physical quantities include cloud fraction, temperature, relative humidity, cloud liquid water path, total column water vapor, precipitation, sensible and latent heat fluxes, aerosol optical depth, and radiative fluxes, with plan to extend to more fields, such as the evaluation of model simulated aerosol physicochemical properties and cloud microphysics properties. Process-oriented diagnostics focusing on aerosol, cloud, and precipitation-related phenomena are also being developed for the evaluation and development of specific model physical parameterizations. In addition to the Southern Great Plains (SGP), North Slope of Alaska (NSA) and Tropical Western Pacific (TWP) atmospheric observatories in the ARMDIAGS version 2.0, the version 3.0 package have extended to the data collected at the ARM Eastern North Atlantic (ENA) atmospheric observatory and the Observation and Modeling of the Green Ocean Amazon (GOAMAZON) field campaign. The metrics and diagnostics package are currently built upon standard Python libraries and additional Python packages developed by DOE (CDAT). The ARM metrics and diagnostic package is available publicly with the hope that it can serve as an easy entry point for climate modelers to compare their models with ARM data. In this report, we first provide an overview of major metrics in section 2. The input data, which constitutes the core content of the metrics and diagnostics package, is summarized in section 3. A user's guide documenting the workflow/structure of the version 3.0 codes and including step-by-step instruction for running the package is described in section 4.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Exascale Computing and Data Handling: Challenges and Opportunities for Weather and Climate Prediction

The emergence of exascale computing and artificial intelligence offer tremendous potential to significantly advance Earth system prediction capabilities. However, enormous challenges must be overcome to adapt models and prediction systems to use these new technologies effectively. A 2022 WMO report on exascale computing recommends “urgency in dedicating efforts and attention to disruptions associated with evolving computing technologies that will be increasingly difficult to overcome, threatening continued advancements in weather and climate prediction capabilities.” Further, the explosive growth in data from observations, model and ensemble output, and postprocessing threatens to overwhelm the ability to deliver timely, accurate, and precise information needed for decision-making. Artificial intelligence (AI) offers untapped opportunities to alter how models are developed, observations are processed, and predictions are analyzed and extracted for decision-making. Given the extraordinarily high cost of computing, growing complexity of prediction systems, and increasingly unmanageable amount of data being produced and consumed, these challenges are rapidly becoming too large for any single institution or country to handle. This paper describes key technical and budgetary challenges, identifies gaps and ways to address them, and makes a number of recommendations.

Atmosphere↗

On the data-driven inference of modulatory networks in climate science: An application to West African rainfall

Decades of hypothesis-driven and/or first-principles research have been applied towards the discovery and explanation of the mechanisms that drive climate phenomena, such as western African Sahel summer rainfall~variability. Although connections between various climate factors have been theorized, not all of the key relationships are fully understood. We propose a data-driven approach to identify candidate players in this climate system, which can help explain underlying mechanisms and/or even suggest new relationships, to facilitate building a more comprehensive and predictive model of the modulatory relationships influencing a climate phenomenon of interest. We applied coupled heterogeneous association rule mining (CHARM), Lasso multivariate regression, and dynamic Bayesian networks to find relationships within a complex system, and explored means with which to obtain a consensus result from the application of such varied methodologies. Using this fusion of approaches, we identified relationships among climate factors that modulate Sahel rainfall. As a result, these relationships fall into two categories: well-known associations from prior climate knowledge, such as the relationship with the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and putative links, such as North Atlantic Oscillation, that invite further research.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Application of solar max ACRIM data to analyze solar-driven climatic variability on Earth

Langley, in the late nineteenth century, attempted to measure solar irradiance over an extended period of time in order to detect changes. The problem with this and other early attempts was that ground based measurements are not sufficiently accurate to measure solar irradiance fluctuations, which are on the order of 0.1%. It was not until the Active Cavity Radiometer Irradiance Monitor (ACRIM) experiment on the NASA Solar Maximum Mission (SMM) was launched in 1980 that continuous data with precision 0.1% was available.

Hoffert, M. I.↗

Using the NASA Giovanni DICCE Portal to Investigate Land-Ocean Linkages with Satellite and Model Data

Data-enhanced Investigations for Climate Change Education (DICCE), a NASA climate change education project, employs the NASA Giovanni data system to enable teachers to create climate-related classroom projects using selected satellite and assimilated model data. The easy-to-use DICCE Giovanni portal (DICCE-G) provides data parameters relevant to oceanic, terrestrial, and atmospheric processes. Participants will explore land-ocean linkages using the available data in the DICCE-G portal, in particular focusing on temperature, ocean biology, and precipitation variability related to El Ni?o and La Ni?a events. The demonstration includes the enhanced information for educators developed for the DICCE-G portal. The prototype DICCE Learning Environment (DICCE-LE) for classroom project development will also be demonstrated.

Acker, James G.↗

Perspectives on Data Reproducibility and Replicability in Paleoclimate and Climate Science

This paper summarizes the current state of reproducibility and replicability in the fields of climate and paleoclimate science, including brief histories of their development and applications in climate science, new and recent approaches towards improvement of reproducibility and replicability, and challenges. Recommendations for addressing those challenges include: development of searchable, auto-updated, interlinked, multi-archive public paleoclimate repositories for raw and processed digital datasets; cross-center standardized code base cases, improved data storage techniques, and a focus on replicability for climate simulation storage and access; and support of the development and community awareness of findable, accessible, interoperable and reusable (FAIR) principles by funding agencies and publishers. This paper is largely based on the May 2018 presentations of a panel of researchers to the Committee on Reproducibility and Replicability in Science, part of the National Academies of Science, Engineering, and Medicine. The commentary and recommendations made here are in alignment with those of its Consensus Study Report on Reproducibility and Replicability in Science (2019).

data repositories↗

Monitoring Extreme Weather in the Hindu Kush Himalaya Region

Why is monitoring extreme weather events important? The HKH (Hindu Kush Himalaya region experiences many extreme weather events, such as thunderstorms, especially during monsoon season. These events can cause economic hardship and loss of life. Monitoring Extreme Weather in the HKH Region is a service in development through SERVIR-Hindu Kush Himalaya that aims to develop a customized numerical weather prediction toolkit to assess these high impact events in this relatively data-sparse region. The High Impact Weather Assessment Toolkit (HIWAT) consists of an ensemble Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF)model, threat assessments based on the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) missions, and impact assessments based on Landsat and the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) imagery. In spring 2019, we began validation of forecasted precipitation using station data in Bangladesh and Climate Hazards Group InfraRed with Station data (CHIRPS).

Remote Sensing↗