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At least 1,009 records · Page 56

A Correlation Between Changes in Solar Luminosity and Differential Radius Measurements

Solar luminosity variations occurring during solar cycle 21 can be attributed in large part to the presence of sunspots and faculae. Nevertheless, there remains a residual portion of the luminosity variation distinctly unaccounted for by these phenomena of solar activity. At the Santa Catalina Laboratory for Experimental Relativity by Astrometry (SCLERA), observations of the solar limb are capable of detecting changes in the solar limb darkening function by monitoring a quantity known as the differential radius. These observations are utilized in such a way that the effects of solar activity are minimized in order to reveal the more fundamental structure of the photosphere. The results of observations made during solar cycle 21 at various solar latitudes indicate that a measurable change did occur in the global photospheric limb darkening function. It is proposed that the residual luminosity change is associated in part with this change in limb darkening.

Kroll, R. J.↗

Ten Years of Solar Change as Monitored by SBUV and SBUV/2

Observations of the Sun by the Solar Backscatter Ultraviolet (SBUV) instrument aboard Nimbus 7 and the SBUV/2 instrument aboard NOAA-9 reveal variations in the solar irradiance from 1978, to 1988. The maximum to minimum solar change estimated from the Heath and Schlesinger Mg index and wavelength scaling factors is about 4 percent from 210 to 260 nm and 8 percent for 180 to 210 nm; direct measurements of the solar change give values of 1 to 3 percent and 5 to 7 percent, respectively, for the same wavelength range. Solar irradiances were high from the start of observations, late in 1978, until 1983, declined until early 1985, remained approximately constant until mid-1987, and then began to rise. Peak-to-peak 27-day rotational modulation amplitudes were as large as 6 percent at solar maximum and 1 to 2 percent at solar minimum. During occasional intervals of the 1979 to 1983 maximum and again during 1988, the dominant rotational modulation period was 13.5 days. Measurements near 200 to 205 nm show the same rotational modulation behavior but cannot be used to track long-term changes in the Sun because of uncertainties in the characterization of long-term instrument sensitivity changes.

Schlesinger, B. M.↗

Stellar evolution and period changes in RR Lyrae stars

The observed secular period changes of RR Lyrae stars in five globular clusters have been compared with those predicted by synthetic models of the horizontal branch (HB). It is shown that most of the observed number distributions of the period change rate beta could be attributed to evolutionary effects, if the random observational error is of order + or - 0.07 days/Myr in beta as suggested by the observers. The model calculations indicate that the mean rate of period change in RR Lyrae stars in globular clusters depends sensitively on their HB type, as is the case for the period shift at a given effective temperature. The distinct bias toward positive period changes in M15 and Omega Cen is evidence that most HB stars in the Oosterhoff group II clusters pass through the instability strip from blue to red toward the end of their core helium burning phase. If confirmed by future observations, this is strong support for the Lee et al. (1990) explanation of the Sandage (1957) period-shift effect.

Lee, Young-Wook↗

Continuous monitoring of a changing sample by multiplex gas chromatography

Results are presented from a study in which a continuously changed gaseous sample was monitored by multiplex gas chromatography (MGC), using the exponential dilution (ED) technique of Ritter and Adams (1976) to change the composition and concentration of a gaseous mixture in such a way as to imitate changes in the atmospheric gases sampled by a descending aircraft. A calibration of the MGC system was performed with four different rates of sample dilution, and the errors resulting from various degrees of change in the sample concentration were determined.

Valentin, Jose R.↗

Organizational change: Incentives and resistance

Topics concerning Space Exploration Initiative technical interchange are presented in viewgraph form and include the following: models of change, elements of the current period, the signs of change, leaders' contribution, paradigms - our worldview, paradigm change, the effects of revealing paradigms, a checklist for change, and organizational control.

Bishop, Peter C.↗

Measuring frequency changes due to microwave power variations as a function of C-field setting in a rubidium frequency standard

It has been shown in previous studies that in some cesium frequency standards there exist certain C-field settings that minimize frequency changes that are due to variations in the microwave power. In order to determine whether similar results could be obtained with rubidium (Rb) frequency standards (clocks), we performed a similar study, using a completely automated measurement system, on a commercial Rb standard. From our measurements we found that changing the microwave power to the filter cell resulted in significant changes in frequency, and that the magnitude of these frequency changes at low C-field levels went to zero and decreased as the C-field was increased.

E. B. Sarosy↗

Sensitivity of the structure of untripped mixing layers to small changes in initial conditions

An experimental study was conducted concerning the influence of small changes in initial conditions on the near- and far-field evolution of the three-dimensional structure of a plan mixing layer. A two-stream mixing layer with a velocity ratio of 0.6 was generated with the initial boundary layers on the splitter plate laminar and was nominally two-dimensional. The initial conditions were changed slightly by interchanging the high- and low-speed sides of the wind tunnel, while maintaining the same velocities, and hence velocity ratio. This resulted in small changes in the initial boundary layer properties, and the perturbations present in the boundary layers were interchanged between the high- and low-speed sides for the two cases. The results indicate that, even with this relatively minor change in initial conditions, the near-field regions of the two cases differ significantly. The peak Reynolds stress levels in the near-field differ by up to 100 percent, and this is attributed to a difference in the location of the initial spanwise vortex roll-up. In addition, the positions and shapes of the individual streamwise vortical structures differ for the two cases, although the overall structures differ for the two cases, although the overall qualitative description of these structures is comparable. The subsequent reorganization and decay of the streamwise vortical structures is very similar for the two cases. As a result, in the far field, both mixing layers achieve similar structure, yielding comparable growth rates, Reynolds stress, distribution, and spectral content.

Plesniak, M. W.↗

Global change data sets: Excerpts from the Master Directory, version 2.0

The recent awakening to the reality of human-induced changes to the environment has resulted in an organized effort to promote global change research. The goal of this research as outlined by NASA's Earth System Science Committee (Earth System Science: A closer View, 1988) is to understand the entire Earth system on a global scale by describing how its component parts and their interactions have evolved, how they function, and how they may be expected to evolve on all timescales. The practical result is the capacity to predict that evolution over the next decade to century. Key variables important for the study of global change include external forcing factors (solar radiance, UV flux), radiatively and chemically important trace species (CO2, CH4, N2O, etc.), atmospheric response variables (temperature, pressure, winds), landsurface properties (river run-off, snow cover, albedo, soil moisture, vegetation cover), and oceanic variables (sea surface temperature, sea ice extent, sea level ocean wind stress, currents, chlorophyll, biogeochemical fluxes). The purpose of this document is to identify existing data sets available (both remotely sensed and in situ data) covering some of these variables. This is not intended to be a complete list of global change data, but merely a highlight of what is available. The information was extracted from the Master Directory (MD), an on-line scientific data information service which may be used by any researcher. This report contains the coverage dates for the data sets, sources (satellites, instruments) of the data and where they are archived.

Beier, Joy↗

Pathways of Understanding: the Interactions of Humanity and Global Environmental Change

How humans, interacting within social systems, affect and are affected by global change is explored. Recognizing the impact human activities have on the environment and responding to the need to document the interactions among human activities, the Consortium for International Earth Science Information Network (CIESIN) commissioned a group of 12 scientists to develop a framework illustrating the key human systems that contribute to global change. This framework, called the Social Process Diagram, will help natural and social scientists, educators, resource managers and policy makers envision and analyze how human systems interact among themselves and with the natural system. The Social Process Diagram consists of the following blocks that constitute the Diagram's structural framework: (1) fund of knowledge and experience; (2) preferences and expectations; (3) factors of production and technology; (4) population and social structure; (5) economic systems; (6) political systems and institutions; and (7) global scale environmental processes. To demonstrate potential ways the Diagram can be used, this document includes 3 hypothetical scenarios of global change issues: global warming and sea level rise; the environmental impact of human population migration; and energy and the environment. These scenarios demonstrate the Diagram's usefulness for visualizing specific processes that might be studied to evaluate a particular global change issues. The scenario also shows that interesting and unanticipated questions may emerge as links are explored between categories on the Diagram.

Jacobson, Harold K.↗

The observation of possible reconnection events in the boundary changes of solar coronal holes

Coronal holes are large scale regions of magnetically open fields which are easily observed in solar soft X-ray images. The boundaries of coronal holes are separatrices between large-scale regions of open and closed magnetic fields where one might expect to observe evidence of solar magnetic reconnection. Previous studies by Nolte and colleagues using Skylab X-ray images established that large-scale (more than 90,000 km) changes in coronal hole boundaries were due to coronal processes, i.e., magnetic reconnection, rather than to photospheric motions. Those studies were limited to time scales of about one day, and no conclusion could be drawn about the size and time scales of the reconnection process at hole boundaries. Sequences of approximate Skylab X-ray images with a time resolution of about 90 min are here used during times of the central meridian passages of the coronal hole labelled 'Coronal Hole 1' to search for hole-boundary changes which can yield the spatial and temporal scales of coronal magnetic reconnection. It is found that 29 of 32 observed boundary changes could be associated with bright points. The appearance of the bright point may be the signature of reconnection between small-scale and large-scale magnetic fields. The observed boundary changes contributed to the quasi-rigid rotation of Coronal Hole 1.

Kahler, S. W.↗

Toward an understanding of global change

In the international scientific community, the International Council of Scientific Unions has organized the International Geosphere Biosphere Program (IGBP) to address the problems of global change. The objective of the IGBP is to describe and understand the interactive physical, chemical, and biological processes that regulate the total earth system, the unique environment that it provides for life, the changes that are occurring in this system, and the manner in which they are influenced by human activities. The IGBP is currently in its preparatory phase, during which the program's goals and research components are slowly evolving and coming into focus. In this report, a limited number of high-priority research initiatives are recommended for early implementation as part of the U.S. contribution to the preparatory phase of the IGBP. The recommendations are based on the committee's analysis of the most critical gaps, not being addressed by existing programs, in the scientific knowledge needed to understand the changes that are occurring in the earth system on time scales of decades to centuries. These initiatives will build upon the capabilities of the U.S. program in global change.

Source record↗

Earth science information: Planning for the integration and use of global change information

Activities and accomplishments of the first six months of the Consortium for International Earth Science Information Network (CIESIN's) 1992 technical program have focused on four main missions: (1) the development and implementation of plans for initiation of the Socioeconomic Data and Applications Center (SEDAC) as part of the EOSDIS Program; (2) the pursuit and development of a broad-based global change information cooperative by providing systems analysis and integration between natural science and social science data bases held by numerous federal agencies and other sources; (3) the fostering of scientific research into the human dimensions of global change and providing integration between natural science and social science data and information; and (4) the serving of CIESIN as a gateway for global change data and information distribution through development of the Global Change Research Information Office and other comprehensive knowledge sharing systems.

Lousma, Jack R.↗

Earth science information: Planning for the integration and use of global change information

The Consortium for International Earth Science Information Network (CIESIN) was founded in 1989 as a non-profit corporation dedicated to facilitating access to, use and understanding of global change information worldwide. The Consortium was created to cooperate and coordinate with organizations and researchers throughout the global change community to further access the most advanced technology, the latest scientific research, and the best information available for critical environmental decision making. CIESIN study efforts are guided by Congressional mandates to 'convene key present and potential users to assess the need for investment in integration of earth science information,' to 'outline the desirable pattern of interaction with the scientific and policy community,' and to 'develop recommendations and draft plans to achieve the appropriate level of effort in the use of earth science data for research and public policy purposes.' In addition, CIESIN is tasked by NASA to develop a data center that would extend the benefits of Earth Observing System (EOS) to the users of global change information related to human dimensions issues. For FY 1991, CIESIN focused on two main objectives. The first addressed the identification of information needs of global change research and non-research user groups worldwide. The second focused on an evaluation of the most efficient mechanisms for making this information available in usable forms.

Lousma, Jack R.↗

A classification procedure for the effective management of changes during the maintenance process

During software operation, maintainers are often faced with numerous change requests. Given available resources such as effort and calendar time, changes, if approved, have to be planned to fit within budget and schedule constraints. In this paper, we address the issue of assessing the difficulty of a change based on known or predictable data. This paper should be considered as a first step towards the construction of customized economic models for maintainers. In it, we propose a modeling approach, based on regular statistical techniques, that can be used in a variety of software maintenance environments. The approach can be easily automated, and is simple for people with limited statistical experience to use. Moreover, it deals effectively with the uncertainty usually associated with both model inputs and outputs. The modeling approach is validated on a data set provided by NASA/GSFC which shows it was effective in classifying changes with respect to the effort involved in implementing them. Other advantages of the approach are discussed along with additional steps to improve the results.

Briand, Lionel C.↗

Fault detection using a two-model test for changes in the parameters of an autoregressive time series

This article describes an investigation of a statistical hypothesis testing method for detecting changes in the characteristics of an observed time series. The work is motivated by the need for practical automated methods for on-line monitoring of Deep Space Network (DSN) equipment to detect failures and changes in behavior. In particular, on-line monitoring of the motor current in a DSN 34-m beam waveguide (BWG) antenna is used as an example. The algorithm is based on a measure of the information theoretic distance between two autoregressive models: one estimated with data from a dynamic reference window and one estimated with data from a sliding reference window. The Hinkley cumulative sum stopping rule is utilized to detect a change in the mean of this distance measure, corresponding to the detection of a change in the underlying process. The basic theory behind this two-model test is presented, and the problem of practical implementation is addressed, examining windowing methods, model estimation, and detection parameter assignment. Results from the five fault-transition simulations are presented to show the possible limitations of the detection method, and suggestions for future implementation are given.

Scholtz, P.↗

Modeling orbital changes on tectonic time scales

Geologic time series indicate significant 100 ka and 400 ka pre-Pleistocene climate fluctuations, prior to the time of such fluctuations in Pleistocene ice sheets. The origin of these fluctuations must therefore depend on phenomena other than the ice sheets. In a previous set of experiments, we tested the sensitivity of an energy balance model to orbital insolation forcing, specifically focusing on the filtering effect of the Earth's geography. We found that in equatorial areas, the twice-yearly passage of the sun across the equator interacts with the precession index to generate 100 ka and 400 ka power in our modeled time series. The effect is proportional to the magnitude of land in equatorial regions. We suggest that such changes may reflect monsoonal variations in the real climate system, and the subsequent wind and weathering changes may transfer some of this signal to the marine record. A comparison with observed fluctuations of Triassic lake levels is quite favorable. A number of problems remain to be studied or clarified: (1) the EBM experiments need to be followed up by a limited number of GCM experiments; (2) the sensitivity to secular changes in orbital forcing needs to be examined; (3) the possible modifying role of sedimentary processes on geologic time series warrants considerably more study; (4) the effect of tectonic changes on Earth's rotation rate needs to be studied; and (5) astronomers need to make explicit which of their predictions are robust and geologists and astronomers have to agree on which of the predictions are most testable in the geologic record.

Crowley, Thomas J.↗

A first-order global model of Late Cenozoic climatic change: Orbital forcing as a pacemaker of the ice ages

The development of a theory of the evolution of the climate of the earth over millions of years can be subdivided into three fundamental, nested, problems: (1) to establish by equilibrium climate models (e.g., general circulation models) the diagnostic relations, valid at any time, between the fast-response climate variables (i.e., the 'weather statistics') and both the prescribed external radiative forcing and the prescribed distribution of the slow response variables (e.g., the ice sheets and shelves, the deep ocean state, and the atmospheric CO2 concentration); (2) to construct, by an essentially inductive process, a model of the time-dependent evolution of the slow-response climatic variables over time scales longer than the damping times of these variables but shorter than the time scale of tectonic changes in the boundary conditions (e.g., altered geography and elevation of the continents, slow outgassing, and weathering) and ultra-slow astronomical changes such as in the solar radiative output; and (3) to determine the nature of these ultra-slow processes and their effects on the evolution of the equilibrium state of the climatic system about which the above time-dependent variations occur. All three problems are discussed in the context of the theory of the Quaternary climate, which will be incomplete unless it is embedded in a more general theory for the fuller Cenozoic that can accommodate the onset of the ice-age fluctuations. We construct a simple mathematical model for the Late Cenozoic climatic changes based on the hypothesis that forced and free variations of the concentration of atmospheric greenhouse gases (notably CO2), coupled with changes in the deep ocean state and ice mass, under the additional 'pacemaking' influence of earth-orbital forcing, are primary determinants of the climate state over this period. Our goal is to illustrate how a single model governing both very long term variations and higher frequency oscillatory variations in the Pleistocene can be formulated with relatively few adjustable parameters.

Saltzman, Barry↗

Mars - Epochal climate change and volatile history

The epochal climate change and volatile history of Mars are examined, with special attention given to evidence for and mechanisms of long-term climate change. Long-term climate change on Mars is indicated most directly by the presence, age, and distribution of the valley networks. They were almost certainly formed by running water, but it seems more likely that they were formed by groundwater sapping than by rainfall. It is argued to be physically plausible that a higher early intensity of surface insolation caused by a CO2 greenhouse effect could have overcompensated for an early weak sun and raised temperatures to the freezing point near the equator under favorable conditions of obliquity and eccentricity. This could account for the morphological changes.

Fanale, Fraser P.↗