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The Impacts of Microphysics and Planetary Boundary Layer Physics on Model Simulations of U. S. Deep South Summer Convection

Inspection of output from various configurations of high-resolution, explicit convection forecast models such as the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model indicates significant sensitivity to the choices of model physics parameterizations employed. Some of the largest apparent sensitivities are related to the specifications of the cloud microphysics and planetary boundary layer physics packages. In addition, these sensitivities appear to be especially pronounced for the weakly-sheared, multicell modes of deep convection characteristic of the Deep South of the United States during the boreal summer. Possible ocean-land sensitivities also argue for further examination of the impacts of using unique ocean-land surface initialization datasets provided by the NASA Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT Center to select NOAA/NWS weather forecast offices. To obtain better quantitative understanding of these sensitivities and also to determine the utility of the ocean-land initialization data, we have executed matrices of regional WRF forecasts for selected convective events near Mobile, AL (MOB), and Houston, TX (HGX). The matrices consist of identically initialized WRF 24-h forecasts using any of eight microphysics choices and any of three planetary boundary layer choices. The resulting 24 simulations performed for each event within either the MOB or HGX regions are then compared to identify the sensitivities of various convective storm metrics to the physics choices. Particular emphasis is placed on sensitivities of precipitation timing, intensity, and coverage, as well as amount and coverage of lightning activity diagnosed from storm kinematics and graupel in the mixed phase layer. The results confirm impressions gleaned from study of the behavior of variously configured WRF runs contained in the ensembles produced each spring at the Center for the Analysis and Prediction of Storms, but with the benefit of more straightforward control of the physics package choices. The design of the experiments thus allows for more direct interpretation of the sensitivities to each possible physics combination. The results should assist forecasters in their efforts to anticipate and correct for possible biases in simulated WRF convection patterns, and help the modeling community refine their model parameterizations.

McCaul, E. W., Jr.↗

The evolution of water vapor in the atmosphere of Venus.

Examination of the feasibility of loss of water vapor from the Venus atmosphere, assuming H2O as the sole initial constituent. A steady-state model is constructed, and the photochemistry establishes the distribution of important products in the upper atmosphere. Calculations of exospheric temperatures yield values as high as 100,000 K. Such large temperatures result from the large abundance of atomic hydrogen in the exosphere, and imply a dynamic outflow of all constituents from the upper region of the atmosphere. Such an outflow would cause the escape of all hydrogen and some of the oxygen resulting from dissociation of H2O. Little loss of CO2 would result, due to its low abundance in the upper region, permitting its accumulation to the present observed value. It is concluded that if Venus formed from the same mix of materials as the earth, much tectonic activity and fairly rapid outgassing must have occurred during the early phase of its history to account for the loss of water vapor.

Smith, L. L.↗

Validation of Spherically Symmetric Inversion by Use of a Tomographically Reconstructed Three-Dimensional Electron Density of the Solar Corona

Determining the coronal electron density by the inversion of white-light polarized brightness (pB) measurements by coronagraphs is a classic problem in solar physics. An inversion technique based on the spherically symmetric geometry (spherically symmetric inversion, SSI) was developed in the 1950s and has been widely applied to interpret various observations. However, to date there is no study of the uncertainty estimation of this method. We here present the detailed assessment of this method using a three-dimensional (3D) electron density in the corona from 1.5 to 4 solar radius as a model, which is reconstructed by a tomography method from STEREO/COR1 observations during the solar minimum in February 2008 (Carrington Rotation, CR 2066).We first show in theory and observation that the spherically symmetric polynomial approximation (SSPA) method and the Van de Hulst inversion technique are equivalent. Then we assess the SSPA method using synthesized pB images from the 3D density model, and find that the SSPA density values are close to the model inputs for the streamer core near the plane of the sky (POS) with differences generally smaller than about a factor of two; the former has the lower peak but extends more in both longitudinal and latitudinal directions than the latter. We estimate that the SSPA method may resolve the coronal density structure near the POS with angular resolution in longitude of about 50 deg. Our results confirm the suggestion that the SSI method is applicable to the solar minimum streamer (belt), as stated in some previous studies. In addition, we demonstrate that the SSPA method can be used to reconstruct the 3D coronal density, roughly in agreement with the reconstruction by tomography for a period of low solar activity (CR 2066). We suggest that the SSI method is complementary to the 3D tomographic technique in some cases, given that the development of the latter is still an ongoing research effort.

corona↗

ASPIRE Aerodynamic Models and Flight Performance

The Advanced Supersonic Parachute Inflation Research Experiments (ASPIRE) project waslaunched to develop the capability for testing supersonic parachutes at Mars-relevant conditions.Three initial parachute tests, targeted as a risk-reduction activity for NASA's upcoming Mars2020 mission, successfully tested two candidate parachute designs and provided valuable data onparachute inflation, forces, and aerodynamic behavior. Design of the flight tests depended onflight mechanics simulations which in turn required aerodynamic models for the payload, andthe parachute. Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) was used to generate these models preflightand they are compared against the flight data after the tests. For the payload, thereconstructed aerodynamic behavior is close to the pre-flight predictions, but the uncertaintiesin the reconstructed data are high due to the low dynamic pressures and accelerations duringthe flight period of comparison. For the parachute, the predicted time to inflation agrees wellwith the pre-flight model; the peak aerodynamic force and the steady state drag on the parachuteare within the bounds of the pre-flight models, even as the models over-predict the parachutedrag at supersonic Mach numbers. Notably, the flight data do not show the transonic dragdecrease predicted by the pre-flight model. The ASPIRE flight tests provide previouslyunavailable valuable data on the performance of a large full-scale parachute behind a slenderleading body at Mars-relevant Mach number, dynamic pressure and parachute loads. TheASPIRE results are used to propose a new model for the parachute drag behind slender bodiesto aid future experiments.

Muppidi, Suman↗

An Evaluation of NOAA-20 ATMS Instrument Pre-Launch and On-Orbit Performance Characterization

Passive microwave sounders provide the highest-impact observations ingested by major numerical weather prediction (NWP) forecast models. The Advanced Technology Microwave Sounder (ATMS), built by Northrop Grumman, Azusa, CA, USA, is the latest operational microwave sounder series being launched by the United States to provide both temperature and water vapor soundings of the atmosphere. The first ATMS was launched on the Suomi National Polarorbiting Partnership (SNPP) satellite in 2011. This article focuses on the details of the on-orbit performance characterization of the second ATMS, which launched on November 18, 2017, on the Joint Polar Satellite System-1 (JPSS-1) satellite. After successful commissioning, JPSS-1 was renamed National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)-20 (N-20). We present performance characterizations from prelaunch and postlaunch tests, including the thermal vacuum (TVAC) campaign, and postlaunch activities that contribute to the radiance data products. Significant improvements were found for reflector emissivity, 1/ f noise performance, antenna beam efficiency, inter-channel noise correlation, and scan drive bearing design. New geolocation and pointing algorithms were evaluated. The N-20 ATMS has the same channel set, polarizations, scan geometry, and calibration approach as the SNPP ATMS. The N-20 ATMS meets all performance requirements with margin.

Advanced Technology Microwave Sounder (ATMS)↗

Detection and Socio-Economic Attribution of Groundwater Depletion in India

Groundwater is a critical resource for both consumption and food security in India, where groundwater management faces significant challenges due to climate change and anthropogenic activities. Although several studies explored groundwater variability in India, few have focused on the socioeconomic attribution of these changes, utilizing data from industries, population and water demand. In this study, trends in groundwater storage were examined by leveraging the largest in situ dataset ever collated in India from ~27,000 groundwater wells, satellite-based terrestrial-water-storage estimates, and hydrological model simulations. Five major hotspots of groundwater depletion across India were identified using in situ measurements and previously untapped socioeconomic datasets to attribute these trends. Approximately 16% of Indian groundwater monitoring stations exhibited systematically decreasing trends in groundwater levels. These hotspots are primarily concentrated in the northern and northwestern parts of India as well as in the states of Chhattisgarh, West Bengal, and Kerala. The north/northwestern hotspots have experienced a staggering loss of ~6.46 × 10^10 m3 of water over the past two decades. The factors contributing to this depletion include population growth, rapid urbanization, proliferation of factories and the expansion of agriculture.

Gautam Kunwar↗

Operator modeling in commerical aviation: Cognitive models, intelligent displays, and pilot's assistants

One of the goals of the National Aviation Safety/Automation program is to address the issue of human-centered automation in the cockpit. Human-centered automation is automation that, in the cockpit, enhances or assists the crew rather than replacing them. The Georgia Tech research program focused on this general theme, with emphasis on designing a computer-based pilot's assistant, intelligent (i.e, context-sensitive) displays, and an intelligent tutoring system for understanding and operating the autoflight system. In particular, the aids and displays were designed to enhance the crew's situational awareness of the current state of the automated flight systems and to assist the crew's situational awareness of the current state of the automated flight systems and to assist the crew in coordinating the autoflight system resources. The activities of this grant included: (1) an OFMspert to understand pilot navigation activities in a 727 class aircraft; (2) an extension of OFMspert to understand mode control in a glass cockpit, Georgia Tech Crew Activity Tracking System (GT-CATS); (3) the design of a training system to teach pilots about the vertical navigation portion of the flight management system -VNAV Tutor; and (4) a proof-of-concept display, using existing display technology, to facilitate mode awareness, particularly in situations in which controlled flight into terrain (CFIT) is a potential.

Govindaraj, T.↗

The Urban Environmental Monitoring/100 Cities Project: Legacy of the First Phase and Next Steps

The Urban Environmental Monitoring (UEM) project, now known as the 100 Cities Project, at Arizona State University (ASU) is a baseline effort to collect and analyze remotely sensed data for 100 urban centers worldwide. Our overarching goal is to use remote sensing technology to better understand the consequences of rapid urbanization through advanced biophysical measurements, classification methods, and modeling, which can then be used to inform public policy and planning. Urbanization represents one of the most significant alterations that humankind has made to the surface of the earth. In the early 20th century, there were less than 20 cities in the world with populations exceeding 1 million; today, there are more than 400. The consequences of urbanization include the transformation of land surfaces from undisturbed natural environments to land that supports different forms of human activity, including agriculture, residential, commercial, industrial, and infrastructure such as roads and other types of transportation. Each of these land transformations has impacted, to varying degrees, the local climatology, hydrology, geology, and biota that predate human settlement. It is essential that we document, to the best of our ability, the nature of land transformations and the consequences to the existing environment. The focus in the UEM project since its inception has been on rapid urbanization. Rapid urbanization is occurring in hundreds of cities worldwide as population increases and people migrate from rural communities to urban centers in search of employment and a better quality of life. The unintended consequences of rapid urbanization have the potential to cause serious harm to the environment, to human life, and to the resulting built environment because rapid development constrains and rushes decision making. Such rapid decision making can result in poor planning, ineffective policies, and decisions that harm the environment and the quality of human life. Slower, more thought-out, decision making could result in more favorable outcomes. The harm to the environment includes poor air quality, soil erosion, polluted rivers and aquifers, and loss of wildlife habitat. Human life is then threatened because of increased potential for disease spreading, human conflict, environmental hazards, and diminished quality of life. The built environment is potentially threatened when cities are built in areas that can be impacted by events such as hurricanes, tsunamis, earthquakes, fires, and landslides. Our goals include assessing the threat of such events on cities and the people living there.

Stefanov, William L.↗

2015 Space Radiation Standing Review Panel

The 2015 Space Radiation Standing Review Panel (from here on referred to as the SRP) met for a site visit in Houston, TX on December 8 - 9, 2015. The SRP met with representatives from the Space Radiation Element and members of the Human Research Program (HRP) to review the updated research plan for the Risk of Radiation Carcinogenesis Cancer Risk. The SRP also reviewed the newly revised Evidence Reports for the Risk of Acute Radiation Syndromes Due to Solar Particle Events (SPEs) (Acute Risk), the Risk of Acute (In-flight) and Late Central Nervous System Effects from Radiation Exposure (CNS Risk), and the Risk of Cardiovascular Disease and Other Degenerative Tissue Effects from Radiation (Degen Risk), as well as a status update on these Risks. The SRP would like to commend Dr. Simonsen, Dr. Huff, Dr. Nelson, and Dr. Patel for their detailed presentations. The Space Radiation Element did a great job presenting a very large volume of material. The SRP considers it to be a strong program that is well-organized, well-coordinated and generates valuable data. The SRP commended the tissue sharing protocols, working groups, systems biology analysis, and standardization of models. In several of the discussed areas the SRP suggested improvements of the research plans in the future. These include the following: It is important that the team has expanded efforts examining immunology and inflammation as important components of the space radiation biological response. This is an overarching and important focus that is likely to apply to all aspects of the program including acute, CVD, CNS, cancer and others. Given that the area of immunology/inflammation is highly complex (and especially so as it relates to radiation), it warrants the expansion of investigators expertise in immunology and inflammation to work with the individual research projects and also the NASA Specialized Center of Research (NSCORs). Historical data on radiation injury to be entered into the Watson “big data” study must be used with caution. The general scientific issues of reproducibility, details of experimental methods and data analysis from preclinical and basic research laboratories have been raised broadly over the last few years (not specific to this work) and indicate that caution must be applied in the ways these data are used. This pertains to preclinical data and also to phase 3 clinical trials in radiation oncology and medical oncology. Of course, appropriate use and analysis of these “big-data” sets also offer the potential of pinpointing limitations and extracting remaining useful information. Emphasis should be placed on the latter possibility. A key target is risk reduction from radiation exposure. Progress of the entire space program, now moving towards the Mars mission, requires timely answers to key components of human risk, which are known to be complex. Periodic review of progress should be conducted with additional resources directed into achieving critical milestones. Turning the long red bars to yellow and green (or for some risks such as CNS possibly to grey) must be high priority. That such progress will require new science and not engineering means that it should be viewed in a knowledge-based light. The technology-based aspects of engineering issues are certainly as important, however, science and knowledge-based problems are solved in a different way than engineering. Timelines for engineering are more predictable, while for science, progress can be methodical with occasional major incremental findings that can rapidly change the rate of progress. As opportunities for rapid incremental changes arise, periodic enhancement of investment is strongly recommended to enable such new knowledge to be quickly and efficiently exploited. Collaborations and linkages with National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID), the Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority (BARDA) and the Department of Defense (DoD) are in place and more are encouraged, where possible, with the radiation injury and medical countermeasure studies. This could include utilizing some of their animal model testing contracts to facilitate obtaining results using common platforms. Such approach will facilitate the comparison of results among laboratories, and will facilitate and accelerate the development of medical countermeasures. It is particularly noteworthy that the NASA Space Radiation Element is reaching out to the Multidisciplinary European Low Dose Initiative (MELODI) platform coordinating low dose radiation risk research, and to other international agencies that are studying low dose radiation effects in an effort to fill the void generated by the cancelation of the Department of Energy (DOE) low dose radiation program. While NASA is working actively with NIAID and BARDA to integrate their relevant findings of radiation mitigator investigations to NASA programs, the committee notes its disappointment that the United States currently lacks a dedicated low dose radiation program with clear mechanistic orientation and aimed at the quantification and mitigation of human radiation risk on Earth. This void gives to the NASA Space Radiation Program Element special societal value, but also makes its overall design more challenging.

Steinberg, Susan↗

Soil Moisture Data Assimilation

Accurate knowledge of soil moisture at the continental scale is important for improving predictions of weather, agricultural productivity and natural hazards, but observations of soil moisture at such scales are limited to indirect measurements, either obtained through satellite remote sensing or from meteorological networks. Land surface models simulate soil moisture processes, using observation-based meteorological forcing data, and auxiliary information about soil, terrain and vegetation characteristics. Enhanced estimates of soil moisture and other land surface variables, along with their uncertainty, can be obtained by assimilating observations of soil moisture into land surface models. These assimilation results are of direct relevance for the initialization of hydro-meteorological ensemble forecasting systems. The success of the assimilation depends on the choice of the assimilation technique, the nature of the model and the assimilated observations, and, most importantly, the characterization of model and observation error. Systematic differences between satellite-based microwave observations or satellite-retrieved soil moisture and their simulated counterparts require special attention. Other challenges include inferring root-zone soil moisture information from observations that pertain to a shallow surface soil layer, propagating information to unobserved areas and downscaling of coarse information to finer-scale soil moisture estimates. This chapter summarizes state-of-the-art solutions to these issues with conceptual data assimilation examples, using techniques ranging from simplified optimal interpolation to spatial ensemble Kalman filtering. In addition, operational soil moisture assimilation systems are discussed that support numerical weather prediction at ECMWF and provide value-added soil moisture products for the NASA Soil Moisture Active Passive mission.

radar backscatter↗

An Agenda for Land Data Assimilation Priorities: Realizing the Promise of Terrestrial Water, Energy, and Vegetation Observations From Space

The task of quantifying spatial and temporal variations in terrestrial water, energy, and vegetation conditions is challenging due to the significant complexity and heterogeneity of these conditions, all of which are impacted by climate change and anthropogenic activities. To address this challenge, Earth Observations (EOs) of the land and their utilization within data assimilation (DA) systems are vital. Satellite EOs are particularly relevant, as they offer quasi-global coverage, are non-intrusive, and provide uniformity, rapid measurements, and continuity. The past three decades have seen unprecedented growth in the number and variety of land remote sensing technologies launched by space agencies and commercial companies around the world. There have also been significant developments in land modeling and DA systems to provide tools that can exploit these measurements. Despite these advances, several important gaps remain in current land DA research and applications. This paper discusses these gaps, particularly in the context of using DA to improve model states for short-term numerical weather and sub-seasonal to seasonal predictions. We outline an agenda for land DA priorities so that the next generation of land DA systems will be better poised to take advantage of the significant current and anticipated shifts and advancements in remote sensing, modeling, computational technologies, and hardware resources.

land surface↗

Evaluation of Different MODIS AOD Retrieval Algorithms for PM (sub 2.5) Estimation in the Western, Midwestern and Southeastern United States with Implications for Public Health

This study was part of the research activities of the Center for Applied Atmospheric Research and Education (CAARE) funded by the NASA MUREP (Minority University Research and Education Project) Institutional Research Opportunity (MIRO) Program. Satellite measurements of Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD) have been shown to be correlated with ground measurements of fine particulate matter less than 2.5 microns PM (sub 2.5), which in turn has been linked to respiratory and heart diseases. The strength of the correlation between AOD and PM (sub 2.5) varies for different AOD retrieval algorithms and geographic regions. We evaluated several Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectrometer (MODIS) AOD products from different satellites (Aqua vs. Terra), retrieval algorithms (Dark Target versus Deep Blue), Collections (5.1 versus 6) and spatial resolutions (10-kilometers versus 3-kilometers) for cities in the Western, Midwestern and Southeastern U.S. We developed and validated PM (sub 2.5) prediction models using remotely-sensed AOD data, which were improved by incorporating meteorological variables (temperature, relative humidity, precipitation, wind speed, and wind direction) from the North American Land Data Assimilation System Phase 2 (NLDAS-2). Adding these meteorological data significantly improved the predictive power of all the PM (sub 2.5) models, especially in the Western U.S. Temperature, relative humidity and wind speed were the most significant meteorological variables throughout the year in the Western U.S. Wind speed was the most significant meteorological variable for the cold season while temperature was the most significant variable for the warm season in the Midwestern and Southeastern U.S. Our study re-establishes the connection between PM (sub 2.5) and public health concerns including respiratory and cardiovascular diseases (asthma, high blood pressure, coronary heart disease, heart attack, and stroke). Using PM (sub 2.5) data and health data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC)'s Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS), our statistical analysis showed that heart attack and stroke occurrences had the strongest correlations with PM (sub 2.5).

Environmental Public Health↗

DEM Solutions Develops Answers to Modeling Lunar Dust and Regolith

With the proposed return to the Moon, scientists like NASA-KSC's Dr. Calle are concerned for a number of reasons. We will be staying longer on the planet's surface, future missions may include dust-raising activities, such as excavation and handling of lunar soil and rock, and we will be sending robotic instruments to do much of the work for us. Understanding more about the chemical and physical properties of lunar dust, how dust particles interact with each other and with equipment surfaces and the role of static electricity build-up on dust particles in the low-humidity lunar environment is imperative to the development of technologies for removing and preventing dust accumulation, and successfully handling lunar regolith. Dr. Calle is currently working on the problems of the electrostatic phenomena of granular and bulk materials as they apply to planetary surfaces, particularly to those of Mars and the Moon, and is heavily involved in developing instrumentation for future planetary missions. With this end in view, the NASA Kennedy Space Center's Innovative Partnerships Program Office partnered with OEM Solutions, Inc. OEM Solutions is a global leader in particle dynamics simulation software, providing custom solutions for use in tackling tough design and process problems related to bulk solids handling. Customers in industries such as pharmaceutical, chemical, mineral, and materials processing as well as oil and gas production, agricultural and construction, and geo-technical engineering use OEM Solutions' EDEM(TradeMark) software to improve the design and operation of their equipment while reducing development costs, time-to-market and operational risk. EDEM is the world's first general-purpose computer-aided engineering (CAE) tool to use state-of-the-art discrete element modeling technology for the simulation and analysis of particle handling and manufacturing operations. With EDEM you'can quickly and easily create a parameterized model of your granular solids system. Computer-aided design (CAD) models of real particles can be imported to obtain an accurate representation of their shape. EDEM(TradeMark) uses particle-scale behavior models to simulate bulk solids behavior. In addition to particle size and shape, the models can account for physical properties of particles along with interaction between particles and with equipment surfaces and surrounding media, as needed to define the physics of a particular process.

Dunn, Carol Anne↗

A high heat flux experiment for verification of thermostructural analysis

A major concern in advancing the state of the art technologies for hypersonic vehicles is the development of an aeropropulsion system capable of handling the high heat fluxes during flight. The leading edges of such systems must not only tolerate the maximum heating rates, but must also minimize distortions to the flow field due to excessive blunting and/or thermal warping of the compression surface to achieve the high inlet performance required. A combined analytical and experimental effort to study the aerothermodynamic loads on actively cooled structures for hypersonic applications was established. A hydrogen/oxygen rocket engine was modified to establish a high enthalpy high heat flux environment. The facility provides heat flux levels from about 200 up to 10000 Btu/sq ft/sec. Cross flow and parallel flow regeneratively cooled model can be tested and analyzed by using cooling fluids of water and hydrogen. Results are presented of the experiment and the characteristics of the Hot Gas Test Facility. The predicted temperature results of the cross flow model are compared with the experimental data on the first monolithic specimens and are found to be in good agreement. Thermal stress analysis results are also presented.

Gladden, Herbert J.↗

A high heat flux experiment for verification of thermostructural analysis

A major concern in advancing the state of the art technologies for hypersonic vehicles is the development of an aeropropulsion system capable of handling the high heat fluxes during flight. The leading edges of such systems must not only tolerate the maximum heating rates, but must also minimize distortions to the flow field due to excessive blunting and/or thermal warping of the conmpression surface to achieve the high inlet performance required. A combined analytical and experimental effort to study the aerothermodynamic loads on actively cooled structures for hypersonic applications was established. A hydrogen/oxygen rocket engine was modified to establish a high enthalpy high heat flux environment. The facility provides heat flux levels from about 200 up to 10000 Btu/sq ft/sec. Cross flow and parallel flow regeneratively cooled model can be tested and analyzed by using cooling fluids of water and hydrogen. Results are presented of the experiment and the characteristics of the Hot Gas Test Facility. The predicted temperature results of the cross flow model are compared with the experimental data on the first monolithic specimens and are found to be in good agreement. Thermal stress analysis results are also presented.

Gladden, H. J.↗

A quarter century of NASA wind-tunnel and flight experiments involving aeroservoelasticity

Over the past quarter century, the NASA Langley Research Center (LaRC) and the NASA Dryden Flight Research Center (DFRC) have played major roles in the development, demonstration, and validation of aeroservoelastic modeling, analysis, design, and testing methods. Many of their contributions resulted from their participation in wind-tunnel and flight-test programs aimed at demonstrating advanced active control concepts that interact with and/or exploit the aeroelastic characteristics of flexible structures. Other contributions are a result of their interest in identifying and solving adverse aeroservoelastic interactions that allow unique flight-test demonstrations or flight envelope clearance programs to be successfully completed. This paper provides an overview of some of the more interesting aeroservoelastic investigations conducted in the transonic dynamics tunnel (TDT) at LaRC and in flight at DFRC. Four flight-test projects are reviewed in this paper. These test projects were selected because of their contributions to the state-of-the-art in active controls technology (ACT) or because of the knowledge gained in further understanding the complex mechanisms that cause adverse aeroservoelastic interactions.

Noll, Thomas E.↗

Impact of a Cold Pool Parameterization on the Diurnal Cycle and Intraseasonal Variability in the GEOS AGCM

A gradual transition from shallow to deep convection may be important both to the continental diurnal cycle of precipitation and to the tropical Madden-Julian Oscillation. However, many existing convection parameterizations transition too readily, with corresponding diurnal and intraseasonal biases. High entrainment rates can be used to delay deep convection, but typically produce mean state biases; this is the "entrainment dilemma." Cold pools and sub-grid organization offer a potential solution to this dilemma, and recent work shows parameterized cold pools can effectively modulate deep convection, with improvements to the diurnal cycle and intraseasonal variability. Here we investigate the effects of a simple prognostic cold pool scheme coupled to the Grell-Freitas convection parameterization, in a set of global simulations with the NASA GEOS model. Air detrained from parameterized downdrafts is maintained in vertically resolved cold pools, which evolve with simplified dynamics. We test several options for cold pool feedbacks on convection, including modifications to deep convective entrainment rates, convective source air properties, and thermodynamic profiles, based on the level of cold pool activity. Cold pool impacts on the diurnal cycle are evaluated against TRMM, and moisture and moist static energy budgets are used to understand changes in tropical intraseasonal variability. Preliminary results show delays in the diurnal cycle of precipitation.

Arnold, Nathan↗

Characterizing Volcanic Eruptions on Venus: Some Realistic (?) Scenarios

When Pioneer Venus arrived at Venus in 1978, it detected anomalously high concentrations of SO2 at the top of the troposphere, which subsequently declined over the next five years. This decline in SO2 was linked to some sort of dynamic process, possibly a volcanic eruption. Observations of SO2 variability have persisted since Pioneer Venus. More recently, scientists from the Venus Express mission announced that the SPICAV (Spectroscopy for Investigation of Characteristics of the Atmosphere of Venus) instrument had measured varying amounts of SO2 in the upper atmosphere; VIRTIS (Visible and Infrared Thermal Imaging Spectrometer) measured no similar variations in the lower atmosphere (ESA, 4 April, 2008). In addition, Fegley and Prinn stated that venusian volcanoes must replenish SO2 to the atmosphere, or it would react with calcite and disappear within 1.9 my. Fegley and Tremain suggested an eruption rate on the order of approx 1 cubic km/year to maintain atmospheric SO2; Bullock and Grinspoon posit that volcanism must have occurred within the last 20-50 my to maintain the sulfuric acid/water clouds on Venus. The abundance of volcanic deposits on Venus and the likely thermal history of the planet suggest that it is still geologically active, although at rates lower than Earth. Current estimates of resurfacing rates range from approx 0.01 cubic km/yr to approx 2 cubic km/yr. Demonstrating definitively that Venus is still volcanically active, and at what rate, would help to constrain models of evolution of the surface and interior, and help to focus future exploration of Venus.

Stofan, E. R.↗