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At least 1,009 records · Page 56

Multi‐Decadal Dynamics of Wetland Methane Emissions Revealed by Knowledge‐Guided Machine Learning

Measurement of methane fluxes (FCH 4 ) from natural systems, such as wetlands, has lagged far behind carbon dioxide fluxes. Short and fragmented wetland FCH 4 data limit our ability to assess its long-term dynamics and potential climate feedbacks. Extrapolating short-term FCH 4 records to recent decades remains challenging for both process-based models and data-driven machine learning (ML) approaches. Here, we develop a knowledge-guided ML framework that integrates eddy covariance (EC) FCH 4 observations, field warming experiments, and biogeochemical knowledge to reconstruct the long-term FCH 4 budgets and trends. Focusing on the 11 longest EC monitoring sites in the AmeriFlux network, we found considerable variability in multi-decadal trends of wetland FCH 4 , with increases up to 14% per decade from 2000 to 2024. We also found that the strength of these increasing trends declines from high to low latitudes, highlighting the vulnerability of northern wetlands. This work presents novel and robust reconstructions of long-term wetland FCH 4 , offering critical benchmark datasets for bottom-up ecosystem models and advancing fundamental understanding of wetland biogeochemistry.

AmeriFlux site↗

Continental United States may lose 1.8 petagrams of soil organic carbon under climate change by 2100

Abstract Aims High‐resolution information on soils’ vulnerability to climate‐induced soil organic carbon (SOC) loss can enable environmental scientists, land managers, and policy makers to develop targeted mitigation strategies. This study aims to estimate baseline and decadal changes in continental US surface SOC stocks under future emission scenarios. Location Continental United States. Time period 2014–2100. Methods We used recent SOC field observations ( n = 6,213 sites), environmental factors ( n = 32), and an ensemble machine learning (ML) approach to estimate baseline SOC stocks in surface soils across the continental United States at 100‐m spatial resolution, and decadal changes under the projected climate scenarios of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase Six (CMIP6) earth system models (ESMs). Results Baseline SOC projections from ML approaches captured more than 50% of variability in SOC observations, whereas ESMs represented only 6–16% of observed SOC variability. ML estimates showed a mean total loss of 1.8 Pg C from US surface soils under the high‐emission scenario by 2100, whereas ESMs showed no significant change in SOC stocks with wide variation among ESMs. Both ML and ESM predictions agree on the direction of SOC change (net emissions or sequestration) across 46–51% of continental US land area. These differences are attributable to the high‐resolution site‐specific data used in the ML models compared to the relatively coarse grid represented in CMIP6 ESMs. Main conclusions Our high‐resolution estimates of baseline SOC stocks, identification of key environmental controllers, and projection of SOC changes from US land cover types under future climate scenarios suggest the need for high‐resolution simulations of SOC in ESMs to represent the heterogeneity of SOC. We found that the SOC change is sensitive to key soil related factors (e.g. soil drainage and soil order) that have not been historically considered as input parameters in ESMs, because currently more than 95% variability in the SOC of CMIP6 ESMs is controlled by net primary productivity, temperature, and precipitation. Using additional environmental factors to estimate the baseline SOC stocks and predict the future trajectory of SOC change can provide more accurate results.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Aggregation bias and its drivers in large‐scale flood loss estimation: A Massachusetts case study

Abstract Large‐scale estimations of flood losses are often based on spatially aggregated inputs. This makes risk assessments vulnerable to aggregation bias, a well‐studied, sometimes substantial outcome in analyses that model fine‐grained spatial phenomena at coarse spatial units. To evaluate this potential in the context of large‐scale flood risk assessments, we use data from a high‐resolution flood hazard model and structure inventory for over 1.3 million properties in Massachusetts and examine how prominent data aggregation approaches affect the magnitude and spatial distribution of flood loss estimates. All considered aggregation approaches rely on aggregate structure inventories but differ in whether flood hazard is also aggregated. We find that aggregating only structure inventories slightly underestimates overall losses (−10% bias), and when flood hazard data is spatially aggregated to even relatively small spatial units (census block), statewide aggregation bias can reach +366%. All aggregation‐based procedures fail to capture the spatial covariation of inputs distributions in the upper tails that disproportionately generate total expected losses. Our findings are robust to several key assumptions, add important context to published risk assessments and highlight opportunities to improve flood loss estimation uncertainty quantification.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

A multisensory approach to understanding bat responses to wind energy developments

Abstract Millions of bats are killed at wind energy facilities worldwide, yet the behavioural mechanisms underlying why bats are vulnerable to wind turbines remain unclear. Anthropogenic stimuli that alter perceptions of the environment, known as sensory pollution, could create ecological traps and cause bat mortality at wind farms. We review the sensory abilities of bats to evaluate potential stimuli associated with wind farms and examine the role of spatial scale on the perceptual mechanisms of sensory pollutants associated with wind energy facilities. Audition, vision, somatosensation and olfaction are sensory modalities that bats use to perceive their environment, including wind farms and turbine structures, but they will not all be useful at the same spatial scales. Bats most likely use vision to perceive wind farms on the landscape, and obstruction lighting may be the first sensory cue to attract bats to wind farms from kilometres away. Research that assesses the risks posed by specific sensory pollutants, when conducted at the appropriate scale, can help identify solutions to reduce bat mortality, such as determining the attractiveness of obstruction lighting to bats at a landscape scale.

Jonasson, Kristin A.↗

Intrinsic and extrinsic factors interact during development to influence telomere length in a long‐lived reptile

Abstract The mechanisms connecting environmental conditions to plasticity in biological aging trajectories are fundamental to understanding individual variation in functional traits and life history. Recent findings suggest that telomere biology is especially dynamic during early life stages and has long‐term consequences for subsequent reproduction and survival. However, our current understanding is mostly derived from studies investigating ecological and anthropogenic factors separately, leaving the effects of complex environmental interactions unresolved. American alligators ( Alligator mississippiensis ) are long‐lived apex predators that rely on incubation temperature during a discrete period during development and endocrine cues to determine sex, making them especially vulnerable to current climatic variability and exposure to anthropogenic contaminants interfering with hormone function. Here, we combine field studies with a factorial design to understand how the developmental environment, along with intrinsic biological variation contribute to persistent telomere variation. We found that exposure to a common endocrine disrupting contaminant, DDE, affects telomere length, but that the directionality is highly dependent upon incubation temperature. Variation in hatchling growth, underlies a strong clutch effect. We also assess concentrations of a panel of glucocorticoid hormones and find that contaminant exposure elicits an increase in circulating glucocorticoids. Consistent with emerging evidence linking stress and aging trajectories, GC levels also appear to trend with shorter telomere length. Thus, we add support for a mechanistic link between contaminants and glucocorticoid signalling, which interacts with ecological aspects of the developmental environment to alter telomere dynamics.

Bae, Junsoo↗

Genome-wide DNA methylation patterns harbour signatures of hatchling sex and past incubation temperature in a species with environmental sex determination

Conservation of thermally sensitive species depends on monitoring organismal and population-level responses to environmental change in real time. Epigenetic processes are increasingly recognized as key integrators of environmental conditions into developmentally plastic responses, and attendant epigenomic data sets hold potential for revealing cryptic phenotypes relevant to conservation efforts. Here, we demonstrate the utility of genome-wide DNA methylation (DNAm) patterns in the face of climate change for a group of especially vulnerable species, those with temperature-dependent sex determination (TSD). Due to their reliance on thermal cues during development to determine sexual fate, contemporary shifts in temperature are predicted to skew offspring sex ratios and ultimately destabilize sensitive populations. Using reduced-representation bisulphite sequencing, we profiled the DNA methylome in blood cells of hatchling American alligators (Alligator mississippiensis), a TSD species lacking reliable markers of sexual dimorphism in early life stages. We identified 120 sex-associated differentially methylated cytosines (DMCs; FDR < 0.1) in hatchlings incubated under a range of temperatures, as well as 707 unique temperature-associated DMCs. We further developed DNAm-based models capable of predicting hatchling sex with 100% accuracy (in 20 training samples and four test samples) and past incubation temperature with a mean absolute error of 1.2°C (in four test samples) based on the methylation status of 20 and 24 loci, respectively. Though largely independent of epigenomic patterning occurring in the embryonic gonad during TSD, DNAm patterns in blood cells may serve as nonlethal markers of hatchling sex and past incubation conditions in conservation applications. These findings also raise intriguing questions regarding tissue-specific epigenomic patterning in the context of developmental plasticity.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Improving collaborations between empiricists and modelers to advance grassland community dynamics in ecosystem models

Climate change, increasing atmospheric CO 2 , and land use change have altered biogeochemical and hydrologic cycles world-wide, with grassland systems being particularly vulnerable to resulting vegetation shifts (Komatsu et al., 2019). Therefore, incorporating plant community dynamics into ecosystem models is critical for accurate forecasting of ecosystem responses to global change (Levine, 2016). Process-based ecosystem models, which simulate the biogeochemical transfers of mass and energy among biota, the subsurface, and atmosphere, require representation of dynamic composition of organisms within ecosystems. For example, these models simulate leaf and plant-level characteristics, such as electron transport rate and allometry of carbon (C) allocation, to predict how net primary productivity and other ecosystem processes respond to abiotic drivers. These models are particularly useful in scaling from organismal to ecosystem levels but are still underdeveloped in their ability to capture community change, especially in grassland ecosystems. To represent compositional changes, these models must simulate competition, mortality, establishment, and reproduction of plant populations within communities. Yet, current ecosystem modeling approaches to forecast plant community change have derived from studies of forested systems and are either too coarse to capture fine-scale community dynamics (e.g. dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs)) or too complex to be used at large spatial scales (e.g. forest gap models).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Forest regeneration within Earth system models: current process representations and ways forward

Earth system models must predict forest responses to global change in order to simulate future global climate, hydrology, and ecosystem dynamics. These models are increasingly adopting vegetation demographic approaches that explicitly represent tree growth, mortality, and recruitment, enabling advances in the projection of forest vulnerability and resilience, as well as evaluation with field data. To date, simulation of regeneration processes has received far less attention than simulation of processes that affect growth and mortality, in spite of their critical role maintaining forest structure, facilitating turnover in forest composition over space and time, enabling recovery from disturbance, and regulating climate-driven range shifts. Here, our critical review of regeneration process representations within current Earth system vegetation demographic models reveals the need to improve parameter values and algorithms for reproductive allocation, dispersal, seed survival and germination, environmental filtering in the seedling layer, and tree regeneration strategies adapted to wind, fire, and anthropogenic disturbance regimes. These improvements require synthesis of existing data, specific field data-collection protocols, and novel model algorithms compatible with global-scale simulations. Vegetation demographic models offer the opportunity to more fully integrate ecological understanding into Earth system prediction; regeneration processes need to be a critical part of the effort.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Amazon drought resilience – emerging results point to new empirical needs

Will climate change turn tropical forests from a carbon sink to a source (Pan et al., 2011)? Tropical forests cycle more carbon, water, and energy than any other biome (Bonan, 2008). The Amazon is the largest tropical forest, spanning one-third of South America, and any perturbation in its function has repercussions on the global climate. Mild and severe droughts in the Amazon are predicted to double and triple in area, respectively, by 2100, while the area under wet extremes will increase (Duffy et al., 2015). Our understanding of the role of plants' hydrological environments in determining their drought response, however, is limited (Chitra-Tarak et al., 2018, 2021). An important review by Costa et al. (2023; pp. 714–733) published in this issue of New Phytologist highlights that shallow-water table (WT) forests constitute c. 50% of the Amazon and may act as hydrological refugia during droughts, yet they have been neglected in Amazon forest research to date. Emerging results suggest that the shallow-WT forests that dominate the Amazon basin may increase in productivity under moderate droughts due to relief from hypoxia, suggesting a potential buffer from drought relative to deeper WT forests (Fig. 1). During severe droughts, however, shallow-WT forests may be vulnerable to collapse due to drought-intolerant traits. Addressing the underrepresentation of relatively drought-resilient shallow-WT forests in the Amazon's forest inventories may help resolve the much-debated incongruence in recent studies of the Amazon's drought resilience. Data from forest inventories (biased toward deep-WT forests) indicate that the Amazon's carbon sink is declining, partially because of drought impacts (Phillips et al., 2009; Brienen et al., 2015), whereas basin-wide satellite-based measures of gross primary productivity, which include shallow-WT forests, indicate varied regional responses to droughts (Saleska et al., 2007; Brando et al., 2010). Costa et al.'s (2023) descriptive insights of the intricate balance of geology, topography, hydrology, vegetation, and drought on ecosystem function, as well as their conceptual predictive framework, are useful for developing new empirical research in these understudied ecosystems and improving Earth system models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Leaves as bottlenecks: The contribution of tree leaves to hydraulic resistance within the soil–plant–atmosphere continuum

Within vascular plants, the partitioning of hydraulic resistance along the soil-to-leaf continuum affects transpiration and its response to environmental conditions. In trees, the fractional contribution of leaf hydraulic resistance (R leaf ) to total soil-to-leaf hydraulic resistance (R total ), or fR leaf (= R leaf /R total ), is thought to be large, but this has not been tested comprehensively. Here, we compiled a multi-biome dataset of fR leaf using new and previously published measurements of pressure differences within trees in situ. Across 80 samples, fR leaf averaged 0.51 (95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.46-0.57) and it declined with tree height. We also used the allometric relationship between field-based measurements of soil-to-leaf hydraulic conductance and laboratory-based measurements of leaf hydraulic conductance to compute the average fR leaf for 19 tree samples, which was 0.40 (95% CI = 0.29-0.56). The in-situ technique produces a more accurate descriptor of fR leaf because it accounts for dynamic leaf hydraulic conductance. Both approaches demonstrate the outsized role of leaves in controlling tree hydrodynamics. A larger fR leaf may play a role in protecting stems from loss of hydraulic conductance. Thus, the decline in fR leaf with tree height would contribute to greater drought vulnerability in taller trees and potentially to their observed disproportionate drought mortality.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Wood‐density has no effect on stomatal control of leaf‐level water use efficiency in an Amazonian forest

Forest disturbances increase the proportion of fast-growing tree species compared to slow-growing ones. To understand their relative capacity for carbon uptake and their vulnerability to climate change, and to represent those differences in Earth system models, it is necessary to characterise the physiological differences in their leaf-level control of water use efficiency and carbon assimilation. We used wood density as a proxy for the fast-slow growth spectrum and tested the assumption that trees with a low wood density (LWD) have a lower water-use efficiency than trees with a high wood density (HWD). We selected 5 LWD tree species and 5 HWD tree species growing in the same location in an Amazonian tropical forest and measured in situ steady-state gas exchange on top-of-canopy leaves with parallel sampling and measurement of leaf mass area and leaf nitrogen content. We found that LWD species invested more nitrogen in photosynthetic capacity than HWD species, had higher photosynthetic rates and higher stomatal conductance. Furthermore, contrary to expectations, we showed that the stomatal control of the balance between transpiration and carbon assimilation was similar in LWD and HWD species and that they had the same dark respiration rates.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Individual and Collective Strategies to Limit the Impacts of Large Power Outages of Long Duration

As modern society becomes ever more dependent on the availability of electric power, the costs that could arise from individual and social vulnerability to large outages of long duration (LLD-outages) increases. During such an outage, even a small amount of power would be very valuable. Here, this article compares individual and collective strategies for providing limited amounts of electric power to residential customers in a hypothetical New England community during a large electric power outage of long duration. We develop estimates of the emergency load required for survival and assess the cost of strategies to address outages that last 5, 10, and 20 days in either winter or summer. We find that the cost of collective solutions could be as much as 10 to 40 times less than individual solutions (less than $2 per month per home). However, collective solutions would require community-wide coordination, and if local distribution system lines are destroyed, only individual back-up systems could provide contingency power until those lines are repaired. Costs might be reduced if more robust distributed generation were employed that could be operated continuously with the ability to sell power back to the grid. Our cost-effectiveness analysis only assesses what could be done, developing estimates of preparedness cost. A decision about what should be done would require additional input from a range of stakeholders as well as some form of analytical deliberative process.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Role of reinforcement learning for risk-based robust control of cyber-physical energy systems

Critical infrastructures such as cyber-physical energy systems (CPS-E) integrate information flow and physical operations that are vulnerable to natural and targeted failures. Safe, secure, and reliable operation and control of CPS-E is critical to ensure societal well-being and economic prosperity. Automated control is key for real-time operations and may be mathematically cast as a sequential decision-making problem under uncertainty. Emergence of data-driven techniques for decision making under uncertainty, such as reinforcement learning (RL), have led to promising advances for addressing sequential decision-making problems for risk-based robust CPS-E control. However, existing research challenges include understanding the applicability of RL methods across diverse CPS-E applications, addressing the effect of risk preferences across multiple RL methods, and development of open-source domain-aware simulation environments for RL experimentation within a CPS-E context. This article systematically analyzes the applicability of four types of RL methods (model-free, model-based, hybrid model-free and model-based, and hierarchical) for risk-based robust CPS-E control. Problem features and solution stability for the RL methods are also discussed. We demonstrate and compare the performance of multiple RL methods under different risk specifications (risk-averse, risk-neutral, and risk-seeking) through the development and application of an open-source simulation environment. Motivating numerical simulation examples include representative single-zone and multizone building control use cases. Finally, six key insights for future research and broader adoption of RL methods are identified, with specific emphasis on problem features, algorithmic explainability, and solution stability.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

The best of both worlds – entering the nursing profession with support of a transition programme

Abstract Background Transition into clinical practice for newly graduated nurses is a difficult time, with high stress levels defined by a demanding period of personal and professional acclimatisation. Transitions are complicated and multi‐dimensional, and to understand this process, it is crucial to identify the factors that facilitate or stand in the way of a healthy transition. Aim The phenomenological study aimed to describe newly graduated nurses’ expectations of transitioning into the nursing profession at the start of a clinical nursing introduction programme, including education, supervision, and critical reflection with peers. Method The study was based on seven group interviews with newly graduated nurses. The interviews utilised open‐ended and follow‐up questions and were carried out as a dialogue to enable reflection on the phenomenon of interest. This was explored and illuminated using the reflective lifeworld research approach, based on phenomenological epistemology. Findings “Expectations of transition into the nursing profession via the Clinical Nursing Introduction Programme” is signified by an oscillating movement between uncertainty, security, challenge, and growth on the threshold of a new identity. The phenomenon is constituted by the courage to grow, responsibility and fear, belonging and vulnerability, and support and challenge. Conclusion Transitioning into the nursing profession via the Clinical Nursing Introduction Programme means having the best of both worlds. Newly graduated nurses have the opportunity to receive education and structured support at the same time as they work independently in clinical practice.

Berglund, Mia↗

Relationship of Chemical Composition and Moisture Sensitivity in LiNi x Mn y Co 1-x-y O 2 for Lithium-Ion Batteries

Chemical composition–moisture sensitivity relationship of LiNi x Mn y Co 1-x-y O 2 (NMC) cathode materials was investigated by exploring crystal structures, surface properties, and electrochemical performance behaviors of various commercial NMC powders: LiNi 1/3 Mn 1/3 Co 1/3 O 2 (NMC111), LiNi 0.5 Mn 0.3 Co 0.2 O 2 (NMC532), LiNi 0.6 Mn 0.2 Co 0.2 O 2 (NMC622), and LiNi 0.8 Mn 0.1 Co 0.1 O 2 (NMC811). The NMC powders were stored in different moisture conditions: moisture-free, humidified air, or immersed in water. Rietveld refinement analysis of X-ray diffraction (XRD) data and scanning electron microscopy (SEM) were used to characterize the crystal structure changes and the evolution of particle surfaces morphologies. The effect of moisture contamination on the electrochemical properties of NMC cathodes was studied by galvanostatic cycling and electrochemical impedance spectroscopy (EIS). The moisture contamination resulted in either structural disorder or unwanted surficial deposition products, which increased a charge-transfer impedance and consequent performance degradation of battery cells. The results showed that NMC’s moisture vulnerability increased with Ni content (x) despite protective coatings on commercial particles, which stressed the necessity of alternative surface passivation strategies of Ni-rich NMC for broad applications such as electric vehicles and electrified aircraft propulsion.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Correlating Time-Resolved Pressure Measurements With Rim Sealing Effectiveness for Real-Time Turbine Health Monitoring

Purge flow is bled from the upstream compressor and supplied to the under-platform region to prevent hot main gas path ingress that damages vulnerable under-platform hardware components. A majority of turbine rim seal research has sought to identify methods of improving sealing technologies and understanding the physical mechanisms that drive ingress. While these studies directly support the design and analysis of advanced rim seal geometries and purge flow systems, the studies are limited in their applicability to real-time monitoring required for condition-based operation and maintenance. As operational hours increase for in-service engines, this lack of rim seal performance feedback results in progressive degradation of sealing effectiveness, thereby leading to reduced hardware life. To address this need for rim seal performance monitoring, this study utilizes measurements from a one-stage turbine research facility operating with true-scale engine hardware at engine-relevant conditions. Time-resolved pressure measurements collected from the rim seal region are regressed with sealing effectiveness through the use of common machine learning techniques to provide real-time feedback of sealing effectiveness. Two modeling approaches are presented that use a single sensor to predict sealing effectiveness accurately over a range of two turbine operating conditions. Here, the results show that an initial purely data-driven model can be further improved using domain knowledge of relevant turbine operations, which yields sealing effectiveness predictions within 3% of measured values.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Evaluation of Power Transmission Lines Hardening Scenarios Using a Machine Learning Approach

The power transmission infrastructure is vulnerable to extreme weather events, particularly hurricanes and tropical storms. A recent example is the damage caused by Hurricane Maria (H-Maria) in the archipelago of Puerto Rico in September 2017, where major failures in the transmission infrastructure led to a total blackout. Numerous studies have been conducted to examine strategies to strengthen the transmission system, including burying the power lines underground or increasing the frequency of tree trimming. However, few studies focus on the direct hardening of the transmission towers to accomplish an increase in resiliency. This machine learning-based study fills this need by analyzing three direct hardening scenarios and determining the effectiveness of these changes in the context of H-Maria. A methodology for estimating transmission tower damage is presented here in this study as well as an analysis of impact of replacing structures with a high failure rate with more resilient ones. We found the steel self-support-pole to be the best replacement option for the towers with high failure rate. Furthermore, the third hardening scenario, where all wooden poles were replaced, exhibited a maximum reduction in damaged towers in a single line of 66% while lowering the mean number of damaged towers per line by 10%.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Correlating Time-Resolved Pressure Measurements With Rim Sealing Effectiveness for Real-Time Turbine Health Monitoring

Purge flow is bled from the upstream compressor and supplied to the under-platform region to prevent hot main gas path ingress that damages vulnerable under-platform hardware components. A majority of turbine rim seal research has sought to identify methods of improving sealing technologies and understanding the physical mechanisms that drive ingress. While these studies directly support the design and analysis of advanced rim seal geometries and purge flow systems, the studies are limited in their applicability to real-time monitoring required for condition-based operation and maintenance. As operational hours increase for in-service engines, this lack of rim seal performance feedback results in progressive degradation of sealing effectiveness, thereby leading to reduced hardware life. To address this need for rim seal performance monitoring, the present study utilizes measurements from a one-stage turbine research facility operating with true-scale engine hardware at engine-relevant conditions. Time-resolved pressure measurements collected from the rim seal region are regressed with sealing effectiveness through the use of common machine learning techniques to provide real-time feedback of sealing effectiveness. Two modelling approaches are presented that use a single sensor to predict sealing effectiveness accurately over a range of two turbine operating conditions. Results show that an initial purely data-driven model can be further improved using domain knowledge of relevant turbine operations, which yields sealing effectiveness predictions within three percent of measured values.

Compressors↗