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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

Coarse Woody Debris Decomposition Assessment Tool: Model validation and application

Coarse woody debris (CWD) is a significant component of the forest biomass pool; hence a model is warranted to predict CWD decomposition and its role in forest carbon (C) and nutrient cycling under varying management and climatic conditions. A process-based model, CWDDAT (Coarse Woody Debris Decomposition Assessment Tool) was calibrated and validated using data from the FACE (Free Air Carbon Dioxide Enrichment) Wood Decomposition Experiment utilizing pine ( Pinus taeda ), aspen ( Populous tremuloides ) and birch ( Betula papyrifera ) on nine Experimental Forests (EF) covering a range of climate, hydrology, and soil conditions across the continental USA. The model predictions were evaluated against measured FACE log mass loss over 6 years. Four widely applied metrics of model performance demonstrated that the CWDDAT model can accurately predict CWD decomposition. The R 2 (squared Pearson’s correlation coefficient) between the simulation and measurement was 0.80 for the model calibration and 0.82 for the model validation ( P <0.01). The predicted mean mass loss from all logs was 5.4% lower than the measured mass loss and 1.4% lower than the calculated loss. The model was also used to assess the decomposition of mixed pine-hardwood CWD produced by Hurricane Hugo in 1989 on the Santee Experimental Forest in South Carolina, USA. The simulation reflected rapid CWD decomposition of the forest in this subtropical setting. The predicted dissolved organic carbon (DOC) derived from the CWD decomposition and incorporated into the mineral soil averaged 1.01 g C m -2 y -1 over the 30 years. The main agents for CWD mass loss were fungi (72.0%) and termites (24.5%), the remainder was attributed to a mix of other wood decomposers. These findings demonstrate the applicability of CWDDAT for large-scale assessments of CWD dynamics, and fine-scale considerations regarding the fate of CWD carbon.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Toward the validation of crowdsourced experiments for lightness perception

Crowdsource platforms have been used to study a range of perceptual stimuli such as the graphical perception of scatterplots and various aspects of human color perception. Given the lack of control over a crowdsourced participant’s experimental setup, there are valid concerns on the use of crowdsourcing for color studies as the perception of the stimuli is highly dependent on the stimulus presentation. Here, we propose that the error due to a crowdsourced experimental design can be effectively averaged out because the crowdsourced experiment can be accommodated by the Thurstonian model as the convolution of two normal distributions, one that is perceptual in nature and one that captures the error due to variability in stimulus presentation. Based on this, we provide a mathematical estimate for the sample size needed to produce a crowdsourced experiment with the same power as the corresponding in-person study. We tested this claim by replicating a large-scale, crowdsourced study of human lightness perception with a diverse sample with a highly controlled, in-person study with a sample taken from psychology undergraduates. Our claim was supported by the replication of the results from the latter. These findings suggest that, with sufficient sample size, color vision studies may be completed online, giving access to a larger and more representative sample. With this framework at hand, experimentalists have the validation that choosing either many online participants or few in person participants will not sacrifice the impact of their results.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2021

TEAMER - AquaHarmonics High Fidelity WEC Sim PTO and Control Model Validation, Sim Model

Collaborative effort between AquaHarmonics, Sandia National Laboratories (SNL), and the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) to revise and validate Aquaharmonics' full wave to wire model, allowing for reduced uncertainty and increased understanding of design requirements of a utility scale wave energy converter (WEC). SNL and NREL in collaboration with AquaHarmonics, will set up and run WEC Simulator (WEC-Sim) models of the AquaHarmonics WEC, building off past model developments for inclusion of custom PTO (power take-off) dynamics. The intent is to review, update, and verify or validate a new WEC-Sim model against wave tank experimental data. Furthermore, the WEC-Sim model will be coupled to an energy storage system model to better understand the wave-to-wire functionality. Project is part of the TEAMER (Testing & Expertise for Marine Energy) RFTS (request for technical support) system of WEC research projects. Testing data can be found in the associated MHKDR link below.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗
DOE OSTI2023

Optimization of Marine Energy Conversion Systems Through Modeling, Optimization, and CHIL Validation

The work aims to achieve optimal tidal energy conversion through a comprehensive approach of modeling, optimization, and control hardware-in-the-loop (CHIL) validation. By developing accurate models and employing optimization techniques, it seeks to identify efficient system configurations and control strategies. HIL validation will ensure the performance and reliability of the optimized tidal energy conversion system. The preparation of the present manual has been supported by the U.S. Department of Energy.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗
DOE OSTI2021

TEAMER - AquaHarmonics High Fidelity WEC Sim PTO and Control Model Validation, Test Logs and Results

Collaborative effort between AquaHarmonics, Sandia National Laboratories (SNL), and the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) to revise and validate Aquaharmonics' full wave to wire model, allowing for reduced uncertainty and increased understanding of design requirements of a utility scale wave energy converter (WEC). SNL and NREL in collaboration with AquaHarmonics, will set up and run WEC Simulator (WEC-Sim) models of the AquaHarmonics WEC, building off past model developments for inclusion of custom PTO (power take-off) dynamics. The intent is to review, update, and verify or validate a new WEC-Sim model against wave tank experimental data. Furthermore, the WEC-Sim model will be coupled to an energy storage system model to better understand the wave-to-wire functionality. This data set is described in the "Test Log" excel file. Please refer to that document for details on each specific test date/time, constraint parameters and model hardware setup details. Sim model can be found in the associated MHKDR link below.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗
DOE OSTI2026

Machine-learning interatomic potentials for interfaces in all-solid-state batteries: Perspectives on training data, model selection, and validation

Interfaces play a pivotal role in dictating the performance and reliability of all-solid-state batteries (ASSBs), where complex electro-chemo-mechanical phenomena at grain boundaries (GBs) and interfaces can lead to degradation and failure. Traditional atomistic simulation methods, such as first-principles calculations and classical molecular dynamics, face limitations in modeling these interfaces due to either high computational cost or insufficient transferability to the diverse atomic environments evolving at interfaces. Machine-learning interatomic potentials (MLIPs) have emerged as a transformative approach, enabling large-scale, high-accuracy simulations of disordered and chemically complex systems by leveraging the predictability of machine learning models trained on first-principles data. Recent applications of MLIPs have demonstrated their ability to capture intricate behaviors at ASSB interfaces, including ion transport, interfacial evolution, and degradation mechanisms, with accuracy and efficiency unattainable by conventional methods. This prospective paper presents comprehensive analysis and practical guidance for MLIP development for GBs and interfaces in ASSBs, with a focus on three key pillars: data generation, model selection, and validation. Here, we review the current state of MLIP applications for GBs and interfaces in both general and ASSB-specific materials, highlighting best practices and challenges in constructing diverse and representative datasets, choosing appropriate machine learning architectures, and rigorously validating model performance. We also discuss emerging strategies and opportunities for improved reliability and efficiency of MLIPs to simulate realistic interfaces in ASSBs.

Energy - Storage↗
DOE OSTI2020

Accuracy of HVAC Load Predictions: Validation of EnergyPlus and DOE-2 using FLEXLAB Measurements

The aim of the project reported here was to better understand the level of accuracy of three building energy simulation (BES) engines (‘engines’) — EnergyPlus™, DOE-2.1e, and DOE-2.2 — by identifying and investigating significant deviations between the performance predicted by these engines and actual performance as measured in the FLEXLAB® test facility at Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL). The specific test conditions included some of those prescribed in ANSI/ASHRAE Standard 140 - Standard Method of Test for the Evaluation of Building Energy Analysis Computer Programs. Detailed measurements of FLEXLAB performance, including indoor temperatures and heat fluxes and air-flow and water flow rates and temperatures in the Heating, Ventilating and Air Conditioning (HVAC) system, together with hourly weather data, were recorded and used in analyzing the simulation results from EnergyPlus v8.8, DOE-2.2 v3.65 and DOE-2.1e v127. These engines are commonly used in the United States for building energy code compliance, federal, state, and utility incentives programs, as well as energy efficient design of new buildings and energy retrofit of existing buildings. Seven conventional overhead mixing ventilation scenarios were tested and each engine was found to have a similar level of agreement with the measurements of space-level heating and sensible cooling loads. These results provide useful information regarding the accuracy of these engines in predicting the cooling and heating load elements of whole building energy performance. This information is intended for practitioners who are concerned about transitioning between simulation tools with different engines and for managers of utility programs leveraging these tools for evaluating and/or projecting measure savings to be incentivized under their programs. The results of the comparisons of simulated and measured performance indicate that the predictions from all three engines are not significantly different. The 24-hour average value of the absolute mean bias indicates the likely magnitude of the error in any particular case. The average mean bias is reduced by cancelation of overprediction in one case by underprediction in another. The daytime absolute mean biases, which may be more important for both energy performance and occupant comfort, are ~6%, presumably because of the greater complexity involved in simulating in the presence of solar radiation. EnergyPlus typically overpredicts the cooling load and/or underpredicts the heating load by ~1.5% and the DOE-2 engines typically underpredict the cooling load by approximately the same amount. The Root Mean Square Error is relatively more sensitive to shorter term variations in the difference between predicted and measured loads; the three engines have similar values, ~10%, suggesting that the uncertainties in their predictions of peak loads may also be similar in magnitude. The implication of these results is that users, both designers and program analysts, can use EnergyPlus, DOE-2.1e, or DOE-2.2 to model conventional commercial buildings equipped with overhead mixing ventilation with a similar level of confidence. Further work is required to better understand the variability in the level of agreement between the engine predictions and FLEXLAB measurements, where a particular engine will agree well with FLEXLAB in some cases and not so well in others and another engine will agree or disagree in different cases. As the sources of this variability are identified and eliminated or reduced significantly, it is recommended that the experimental capabilities and methods developed in the study reported here should be applied to validating heating and cooling load calculations for spaces with different types of furniture and miscellaneous loads. These methods should then be applied to low energy space conditioning systems in EnergyPlus including, in particular, radiant slab and radiant ceiling panel cooling and heating systems and ‘mixed mode’ systems that combine mechanical cooling and natural ventilation systems, focusing on controls, including control of thermal mass. The work reported here addresses the conventional method of heating and cooling occupied spaces; other methods, such as the use of radiant heating and cooling systems have the potential to provide equivalent occupant comfort, or better, with lower energy consumption. These systems are addressed more explicitly in EnergyPlus but there is a need for empirical validation to give users the same level of confidence in modeling these systems that they have, or should have, in modeling conventional systems, based on the results presented here.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2020

Curation of Ground-Truth Validated Benchmarking Datasets for Fault Detection & Diagnostics Tools

Fault detection and diagnostics (FDD) analytical tools for heating, ventilation and air conditioning (HVAC) systems represent one of the most active areas of smart building technology development. A diversity of techniques is used for FDD analytics, spanning physical models, black box, and rule-based approaches, and researchers continuously strive to develop improved algorithms. With FDD algorithm numbers now in the hundreds, there is a need for performance evaluation of these algorithms in order to assess improvements, improve costeffectiveness, and to prioritize investment in the further development of these technologies. A persistent challenge of FDD advance has been the lack of common datasets to benchmark the performance accuracy of FDD algorithms. This paper summarizes the successful curation of HVAC operational data, paired with validated ground-truth information regarding the presence and absence of faults. The current dataset, consisting of both simulation and experimental data, will evolve to include a larger set of HVAC systems with the objective of creating the largest publicly available dataset to be used by FDD developers, users, and researchers to compare and contrast performance accuracy across FDD algorithms, helping to drive improvements that will spur greater market adoption of FDD tools. Furthermore, in order to avoid previously observed issues with contributed datasets and ensure high quality and consistency of future submissions, the development of data validation and ground-truth assessment protocol is detailed in this study.

Casillas, Armando↗
DOE OSTI2020

Separate Effects Validation for Subcooled Boiling in CTF

In 2010, the U.S. Department of Energy created its first Energy Innovation Hub, which is focused on developing high-fidelity and high-resolution modeling and simulation (M&S) tools for modeling of light water reactors (LWRs). This hub, the Consortium for Advanced Simulation of LWRs (CASL), has developed an LWR simulation tool called the Virtual Environment for Reactor Applications (VERA). The multi-physics capability of VERA is achieved through the coupling of single-physics codes, including CTF (the CASL version of Coolant Boiling in Rod Arrays— Three Field (COBRA-TF)), Michigan Parallel Characteristics Transport (MPACT), BISON, and Materials Performance and Optimization (MPO) Advanced Model for Boron Analysis (MAMBA). As part of its M&S efforts, CASL has identified various challenge problems, including Crud Induced Power Shift (CIPS), Crud-Induced Localized Corrosion (CILC), Pellet-Cladding Interaction (PCI), and Departure from Nucleate Boiling (DNB). This work addresses CASL milestone L2:VVI.P19.03, which focuses on uncertainty quantification of crud, which is relevant to both CIPS and CILC. This is achieved through an analysis and separate effects validation of the thermal hydraulic phenomenon known as subcooled boiling. As part of this work, various sources of experimental data are examined and compared to different options for empirical modeling of subcooled boiling. Through this analysis, a complete understanding of the underlying models and their implementation details are understood. A subset of these data are incorporated into a separate effects validation study of CTF. The Westinghouse Advanced Loop Tester (WALT) and Rohsenow experiments are modeled, and it is shown that the newly-implemented Gorenflo correlation is more accurate than the existing Chen and Thom correlations.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Verification and Validation of the STAT7 Code

This document presents the verification and validation of the STAT7 Version 1.0 code which has been developed to perform the steady-state thermal hydraulic safety calculation of the MIT Research Reactor required upon conversion of the reactor from high enrichment uranium fuel to low enrichment uranium fuel. The key capabilites of the code including the statistical processing, water property generation, and thermal hydraulic solution are verified independently. While the first two capabilites are checked using statistical tests and NIST data tables, each component of the thermal hydraulic solution is verified using simple geometry test problems. The comparison between results obtained by the code and hand calculations on these problems shows that each of these components work correctly. Additionally, a comprehensive comparison between STAT7 Version 1.0 and PLTEMP/ANL Version 4.2 calculations for a five-channel test problem is performed for the validation. The good agreement between the obtained results for all thermal hydraulic parameters belonging to the fuel core region is achieved. An issue in bypass flowrate calculation was detected when both fin-friction and bypass flow claculations are involved. This problem can be corrected in a later version of the code, however, does not affect the application of STAT7 code as it has been used to date where the flow distribution in the core region and bypass channel is specified as an input parameter.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Involute Working Group – Validation of CFD Turbulence Models for Steady-State Safety Analysis

There are three research reactors in the world having fuel plates curved as circle-involute (a spiral generated around a circle): The Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) High Flux Isotope Reactor (HFIR) located in Tennessee, U.S.A. [ORNL, 2018]; The Laue-Langevin Institute (ILL) High Flux Reactor (RHF) located in Grenoble, France [ILL, 2018]; and, The Technical University of Munich (TUM) Research Neutron Source Heinz Maier-Leibnitz (FRM II) located in Garching, Germany [TUM, 2018]. All three reactors are currently using Highly Enriched Uranium (HEU, 235U/U ≥ 20 wt. %) as fuel and all three are actively engaged in activities to convert to Low Enriched Uranium (LEU, 235U/U < 20 wt. %) fuel. More information on these reactors can be found in Section two. For various reasons, these reactors have expressed interest in using Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) tools to perform their Steady-State Thermal-Hydraulic (SSTH) safety calculations. Using CFD tools for SSTH analysis represents generally a significant departure from traditional methods and requires thorough verification and validation (V&V) to be accepted by regulators. This is why Argonne National Laboratory (ANL) and the involute reactors formed an informal group to help each other in this endeavor. This so-called Involute Working Group (IWG) aims at supporting the qualification of CFD tools for SSTH safety calculations. Activities include benchmarking, code-to-code comparison, Verification and Validation (V&V) as well as technical support. More information on the IWG and the reasons why involute-plate reactors are interested in CFD can be found in Section three. The present study aims at testing three turbulence models commonly implemented in commercial software (namely K-Epsilon, K-Omega and Reynolds-Stress) and assessing their relevance for involute-plate reactor application. An experiment performed by Gambill and Bundy in 1961 was performed to measure heat transfer coefficients in conditions prototypic of the HFIR reactor [Gambill, 1961]. More details on this experiment are provided in Section four. Based on the information available, CFD models of this experiment have been created and the experimental results have been compared to the ones obtained with these CFD models. CFD models and the results of this comparison are provided in Section five.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Verification and Validation of the STAT7 Code

This document presents the verification and validation of the STAT7 Version 1.0 code which has been developed to perform the steady-state thermal hydraulic safety calculation of the MIT Research Reactor required upon conversion of the reactor from highly enriched uranium fuel to low- enriched uranium fuel. The key capabilities of the code including the statistical processing, water property generation, and thermal hydraulic solution are verified independently. While the first two capabilities are checked using statistical tests and NIST data tables, each component of the thermal hydraulic solution is verified using simple geometry test problems. The comparison between results obtained by the code and hand calculations on these problems shows that each of these components work correctly. Additionally, a comprehensive comparison between STAT7 Version 1.0 and PLTEMP/ANL Version 4.2 calculations for a five-channel test problem is performed for the validation. The good agreement between the obtained results for all thermal hydraulic parameters belonging to the fuel core region is achieved. An issue in bypass flowrate calculation was detected when both fin-friction and bypass flow calculations are involved. This problem can be corrected in a later version of the code. However, it does not affect the application of STAT7 as it has been used to date where the flow distribution in the core region and bypass channel is specified as an input parameter.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2020

Validation of Spent Fuel Dose Rate Calculations Using NDA Measurement Campaign Data

The predicted radiation gamma dose rate is a key parameter to determine if a spent nuclear fuel assembly is self-protected from misuse as well as an indicator for worker/inspector safety. Recent studies showed that using state-of-the-art techniques for dose rate calculations, including the one adopted for this study, the numerical calculations of the gamma dose rates are three times lower than those from the most commonly-cited reference values for spent LWR fuel used by domestic and international agencies. With only a few publically available experimental data points worldwide for this type of benchmark study, the gamma flux measurements from the Spent Fuel Non Destructive Assay (NDA) measurement campaign can be used to help validate the physics approach used in calculating gamma dose rates. Specifically, this data would validate the gamma flux calculation from spent fuel, which is a key component of these multi-physics techniques for dose rate assessments; dose rate measurements were not part of the NDA campaign. These data are primarily the passive gamma measurements of the spent nuclear fuel assemblies from the Swedish Nuclear Fuel and Waste Management Company (SKB).

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2020

Experimentally Validated Computational Modeling of Creep and Creep-Cracking for Nuclear Concrete Structures

In a Nuclear Power Plant, one of the most important components is the concrete nuclear reactor cavity, which serves both a structural and protective function as the biological radiation shield. Given that creep has been identified as a major knowledge gap in the assessment of nuclear structures (NUREG/CR-7153), this work helps to further the understanding of creep behavior of massive concrete containment structures for decades to enable safe and long-term operation of these facilities. This project has developed a robust, experimentally validated model to predict creep in nuclear concrete structures for up 60 years using short-term creep data thereby enabling a longer service life of critical facilities and early detection of structural failure. The work presented in this report is a pairing of computational and experimental methods. For the first time, the time temperature superposition (TTS) principle was successfully used to generate a uniaxial creep compliance master curve to predict mortar creep response for up to 22,500 days (nearly 60 years) at a reference temperature of 20°C. These data were used as input into finite element analysis (FEA) codes that use highly realistic random, 3D concrete microstructures from reconstructed coarse limestone aggregates. Finite element analysis performed provides the ability to quickly upscale mortar viscoelastic behavior to long-term concrete creep/relaxation data. A master creep compliance curve, constructed from the TTS principle, spanning 27 years, was used to validate two and a half decades of simulated concrete creep. Concurrently, three different simulated wall specimens were designed to mimic the behavior of post-tensioned concrete nuclear containment facility vessel walls over time as a result of concrete creep. The specimens were designed with different thicknesses, transverse and longitudinal reinforcement ratios, and level of post-tensioning stress. Each specimen contained various instrumentation to measure internal concrete temperature, concrete strain, and post-tensioning strain hourly for over 3 years. The concrete creep model developed in this project, based on the FEA concrete simulations, was applied to simulate the structural-scale experiments of prestressed concrete walls conducted in this project using the Grizzly code. These models can represent the effects of reinforcing and prestressing. Although there are some discrepancies with the experimental data, the model can predict the overall trends of the creep response in these experiments. One of these experimental models was also applied to an extended time to demonstrate how the findings from this study can be used to predict the behavior of actual structures of interest that have been in service for extended periods of time.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2020

FY20 SAM Code Developments and Validations for Transient Safety Analysis of Advanced non-LWRs

The System Analysis Module (SAM) is under development at Argonne National Laboratory as a modern system-level modeling and simulation tool for advanced non-light water reactor safety analyses. It utilizes the object-oriented application framework MOOSE to leverage the modern software environment and advanced numerical methods. The capabilities of SAM are being extended to enable the transient modeling, analysis, and design of various advanced nuclear reactor systems. This report summarizes major progress in SAM code development, capability enhancements, demonstration, and validation to support transient safety analysis of advanced non-LWRs. Rapid developments continued in fiscal year 2020 (FY20) to support various needs of the advanced reactor community, especially the NRC and industry on the licensing safety analysis of advanced reactor designs. Significant code changes were made to provide various capability enhancements, bug fixes, and user friendliness improvements. Major code updates are summarized in Section 1, while four important enhancements are detailed in Sections 2-5, including a multi-dimension flow model; reactivity feedback and decay heat models; control and trip system modeling, and additional fluid and solid thermophysical property models. Code validation activities in FY20 include using test data from the Fast Flux Test Facility (FFTF), the High Temperature Test Facility (HTTF), and several separate effects test facilities for pebble-bed modeling.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2020

HPAC Validation against NRC Documentation

This report describes validation of the radiological source terms in the Nuclear Facility Accident (NFAC) module of the Defense Threat Reduction Agency (DTRA)’s Hazard Prediction and Assessment Capability (HPAC) software. The validation will be conducted by comparing the source terms defined in HPAC to published data from references approved by the U. S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC). Comparisons will be done for both pressurized water reactors (PWRs) and boiling water reactors (BWRs). This comparison includes the magnitude, isotopic composition, and timing of the release fractions over the course of a severe or moderate accident. Calculations for both facility-specific nuclear power plants and for more generic reactor categories are involved. It is shown that the NFAC radiological source terms in HPAC agree well with NRC standards for moderate and severe accidents at PWRs and BWRs.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗
DOE OSTI2026

HelioScope Energy Performance Modeling Validation: Cooperative Research and Development Final Report, CRADA Number CRD-17-00685

HelioScope is a unique solar design and energy performance modeling tool that bridges the worlds of research and industry, bringing the most rigorous methods from the performance modeling community to thousands of solar developers of all backgrounds. However, many financial institutions and municipalities are hesitant to accept the energy production modeling results of HelioScope (including shading losses) in place of costly, time-intensive, and/or redundant methods due to lack of vetting from a respected institution like NREL. We expect that the proposed validation exercises will give municipalities and financial institutions the comfort needed to incorporate HelioScope into their operations, thereby significantly reducing the needs of existing and potential HelioScope users' to otherwise obtain information that HelioScope produces automatically. Folsom Labs was selected for a Small Business Voucher from the U.S. Department of Energy for the National Renewable Energy Laboratory to validate the performance of HelioScope’s simulation engine against measured PV system performance.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

A Spatially Explicit Individual-Based Modeling Approach to Evaluate the Cumulative Effects of Wind Energy Development on the Greater Sage-Grouse: Sensitivity Analysis and Validation of Key Parameters

To address the need for an approach to evaluate cumulative ecological impacts of wind energy development, particularly those on critical wildlife habitats and species, the authors developed a proof-of-concept, landscape-based, spatially explicit individual-based modeling (IBM) framework for populations of the greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) in Albany County, Wyoming, based on published and other available information on the life history of the species. This sage-grouse IBM estimates the spatial and temporal movements of sage-grouse based on modeled effects of habitat characteristics and developments on sage-grouse condition, survivorship, and reproduction. After completing the initial version of the model, we conducted a series of sensitivity analyses of key model parameters and validation of lek occurrences and spatial distributions to better understand performance of the model relative to observed values of important life history characteristics. The parameter sensitivity analysis was conducted as a series of one-factor-at-a-time tests in which the values of selected parameters were individually varied to evaluate the corresponding effects on model output. We examined the model’s response to changes in parameter values to gain insight into the overall robustness of the model, identify key driver parameters, and initiate qualitative validation. Five functions selected for sensitivity analyses were (1) the rate of change in body condition in relationship to habitat suitability index (HSI) of occupied habitat (condition change rate), (2) the effect of competition between individuals with overlapping home ranges expressed as a percentage reduction in HSI (competition factor), (3) value of condition at which survivorship probability is equal to zero (zero survivorship condition), (4) the relationship between female body condition and clutch size, and (5) the relationship between female body condition and nest success. We varied the parameter values to be tested for the sensitivity analysis around the original value used in the model (i.e., tested values were higher and lower than the model’s original value) to examine the effect of this variation on the predicted output of the model. Model outputs evaluated in the sensitivity analysis included (1) predicted age-class distribution (as measured by the percentage of immature individuals within the population); (2) predicted sex ratio; (3) predicted age-sex class distribution (percent of population in each of six age-sex classes, i.e., male and female juveniles, yearlings, and adults); (4) lifespan; (5) population size; and (6) spatial distribution. Of the five parameters analyzed, condition change rate, survivorship, clutch size, and nest success did not substantially affect any of the evaluated model outputs. For the predicted age-class distribution, the percentage of immature individuals predicted by the model for these four parameters ranged from 61.9% to 65.0%, which was reasonable with respect to the reference values of 51.4 to 57.8% in published studies. The ratio of females to males ranged from 1.09 to 1.14, which was comparable to the reference values of 1.2 to 3.0 presented in an existing study. The predicted mean lifespan ranged from 1.62 to 1.74 years, which appears to be reasonable with respect to the reference values of 0.9 to 1.1 years for sharp-tail grouse and greater prairie chickens presented by published studies. The predicted population size ranged from 1,877 to 3,140. This prediction would be reasonable with respect to our estimate of 5,000 yearlings and adults, which was based on the USFWS estimate for the state of Wyoming scaled to the number of leks in the county. The predicted spatial distribution was not substantially affected by the parameter values examined. In our sensitivity analyses, the only tested parameter that had a noticeable effect on model output was competition factor. Over the range of values tested for this parameter, predicted population size exhibited the largest range (from 1,833 to 4,737) of all parameters tested. As the competition factor increased, the predicted population size decreased. This reflects the effect competition had on the number of individuals that could co occur in high-quality habitat patches. Despite this apparently significant effect, the range of values appears to be reasonable with respect to our estimate of 5,000 yearlings and adults, which was based on the USFWS estimate for the state of Wyoming scaled to the number of leks in the county.

17 WIND ENERGY↗