Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “Uncertainty modeling”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 1,009 records · Page 56

An optimization-based approach for integrated controls-structures design of flexible spacecraft

The control of flexible spacecraft is a difficult problem because of large number of elastic modes; low value, closely-spaced frequencies; very small damping; and uncertainties in math models. The traditional design approach is to design the structure first and then to design the control system. This view-graph presentation develops a methodology for spacecraft design which addresses control/structure interaction issues, produces technology for simultaneous control/structure design, and translates into algorithms and computational tools for practical integrated computer-aided design.

Maghami, P. G.↗

Robust control of nonlinear flexible multibody systems using quaternion feedback and dissipative compensation

Global asymptotic stability of a class of nonlinear multibody flexible space-stnuctures under dissipative compensation is established. Two cases are considered. The first case allows unlimited nonlinear motions of the entire system and uses quaternion feedback. The second case assumes that the central body motion is in the linear range although the other bodies can undergo unrestricted nonlinear motion. The stability is proved to be robust to the inherent modeling nonlinearities and uncertainties. Furthermore for the second case the stability is also shown to be robust to certain actuator and sensor nonlinearities. The stability proofs use the Lyapunov approach and exploit the inherent passivity of such systems. The results are applicable to a wide class of systems including flexible space-structures with articulated flexible appendages.

Kelkar, Atul G.↗

Mars Pathfinder Atmospheric Entry Navigation Operations

On July 4, 1997, after traveling close to 500 million km, the Pathfinder spacecraft successfully completed entry, descent, and landing, coming to rest on the surface of Mars just 27 km from its target point. In the present paper, the atmospheric entry and approach navigation activities required in support of this mission are discussed. In particular, the flight software parameter update and landing site prediction analyses performed by the Pathfinder operations navigation team are described. A suite of simulation tools developed during Pathfinder's design cycle, but extendible to Pathfinder operations, are also presented. Data regarding the accuracy of the primary parachute deployment algorithm is extracted from the Pathfinder flight data, demonstrating that this algorithm performed as predicted. The increased probability of mission success through the software parameter update process is discussed. This paper also demonstrates the importance of modeling atmospheric flight uncertainties in the estimation of an accurate landing site. With these atmospheric effects included, the final landed ellipse prediction differs from the post-flight determined landing site by less then 0.5 km in downtrack.

Braun, R. D.↗

The Impact of Buoyancy and Flame Structure on Soot, Radiation and NOx Emissions from a Turbulent Diffusion Flame

It is hypothesized that the spatial structure of a turbulent diffusion flame plays an important role in determining the emissions of radiative energy, soot and NO, from a combustor. This structure, manifested in the two point statistics, is influenced by buoyancy. Radiation, soot and NOx emissions are the cumulative result of processes that occur throughout a flame. For example, radiation fluxes along a line of sight can be found from summing up the contributions from sources in individual pockets of hot soot that emit, and from sinks in cold soot that absorb. Soot and NOx are both the results of slow chemistry and are not equilibrium products. The time that is available for production and burnout is crucial in determining the eventual emissions of these pollutants. Turbulence models generally rely on a single point closure of the appropriate time averaged equations. Hence, spatial information is lost and needs to be modeled using solution variables such as turbulence kinetic energy and dissipation rate, often with the assumption of isotropy. However, buoyancy can affect the physical structure of turbulent flames and can change the spatial extent of soot bearing regions. Theoretical comparisons with models are best done in the limit of infinite Froude number because the inclusion of buoyancy in flow models introduces significant uncertainties. Hence, LII measurements of soot, measurements of radiation fluxes from soot, Particle Imaging Velocimetry (PIV) of the flow field and measurements of post flame NOX will be carried out on the NASA Lewis 2.2 sec drop tower and eventually on the parabolic flight aircraft. The drop rig will be a modified version of a unit that has been successfully used at Lewis in the past.

Kennedy, I. M.↗

Characterization of the Heat Extraction Capability of a Compliant, Sliding, Thermal Interface for Use in a High Temperature, Vacuum Microgravity Furnace

Much of the material science gained in microgravity research requires processing a sample in a high performance furnace. One such furnace currently being designed is the Quench Module Insert (QMI). The Principle Investigators, for whom the furnace is proposed, require high temperature gradients in their cylindrical samples to achieve the science objectives. One of the components critical to achieving high sample axial temperature gradients in the Quench Module Insert is a high performance cold zone to extract the heat from the sample. This cold zone employs a compliant, sliding thermal interface based on a Vel-Therm felt. This felt provides a conductive path between the Sample Cartridge Assembly (SCA) exterior surface and the interior surface of the water cooled chill block while allowing movement of the sample relative to the chill block. The Vel-Therm felt is composed of long polymer-based fibers affixed to a thin flexible substrate layer. The fibers are oriented perpendicular to this substrate giving the felt the appearance of a velvet fabric. The Vel-Therm felt heat extraction capability was quantified in earlier tests performed in an inert gas environment. The current activity, described in this paper, is intended to characterize the extraction capability of Vel-Therm felt in a vacuum environment similar to the QMI environment. This testing is necessary to quantify the thermal performance of the Vel-Therm felt and the sensitivity of that performance to key variables. The data derived from these tests will be incorporated into the current thermal models to improve the quality of the models and reduce uncertainty of the analytical results. In addition, the data will be used to help select the appropriate Vel-Therm felt and set proper operating limits as well as assess the performance range of the furnace. The objective of this test is to measure the heat extraction rate of the Vel-Therm felt as specified by the effective heat transfer coefficient. Therefore, the test setup was designed to force the bulk of the heat transfer through the area where the Vel-Therm felt was applied. A heat source, consisting of a ceramic heating element encased in a Copper (Cu) housing is mounted on four isolated support rods. A 6-layer molybdenum radiation shield is used to insulate against heat loss from the heater and prevent heat exchange between the hot and cold sides of the test apparatus. The Vel-Therm felt is affixed to the surface of the cold sink, a water-cooled Cu chill block. An adjustable plate supports and isolates the cold sink from above and is used to control the amount of the deflection of the Vel- Therm when in contact with the Cu heating element housing. The primary means of establishing the power being conducted through the felt is to measure the energy being transferred to the water passing through the chill block. Analysis was performed to support the assumption that the source and sink surfaces were approximately isothermal under the specific test conditions. As a check on the amount of power passing through the felt, the power supplied to the heater was also measured. Thermocouples were strategically located throughout the test apparatus for measurement purposes. A bell jar was lowered over the assembly to impose vacuum conditions. Currently, variables tested have been fiber compression and fiber type and surface temperatures (both the hot and cold side temperatures are hypothesized to be important to the performance of the Vel-Therm.) Selected runs were repeated to ensure consistency and repeatability. Results obtained thus far reveal that Vel-Therm performance is significantly degraded by fibers being exposed to high compression. It also shows that performance is somewhat negatively impacted by previous compression, thereby, raising the question of repeatability. In addition, early results show a significant dependence on temperature. A computer aided mathematical analysis of the test setup is ongoing. The results will be correlated to actual results. The correlation will examine such details as parasitic loses, conduction down the power leads and many other concerns.

Bellomy-Ezell, Jenny↗

TRAP/SEE Code Users Manual for Predicting Trapped Radiation Environments

TRAP/SEE is a PC-based computer code with a user-friendly interface which predicts the ionizing radiation exposure of spacecraft having orbits in the Earth's trapped radiation belts. The code incorporates the standard AP8 and AE8 trapped proton and electron models but also allows application of an improved database interpolation method. The code treats low-Earth as well as highly-elliptical Earth orbits, taking into account trajectory perturbations due to gravitational forces from the Moon and Sun, atmospheric drag, and solar radiation pressure. Orbit-average spectra, peak spectra per orbit, and instantaneous spectra at points along the orbit trajectory are calculated. Described in this report are the features, models, model limitations and uncertainties, input and output descriptions, and example calculations and applications for the TRAP/SEE code.

Armstrong, T. W.↗

Simulating the Formation of Lunar Floor-Fracture Craters Using Elastoviscoplastic Relaxation

Lunar floor-fracture craters formed during the height of mare basalt emplacement. Due to a general temporal and spatial relation with the maria, these craters, numbering some 200, may be diagnostic of the thermal structure of the crust during this time. As the name suggests, these craters exhibit brittle failure, generally limited to the central floor region. That, and a shallower depth than fresh lunar craters, has led to two main theories as to their formation: laccolith emplacement under the crater and viscous relaxation. The implications of each model for the state of the Moon's crust during this time are quite different, so the viability of each model must be checked. Laccolith emplacement has been treated elsewhere. However, previous attempts to study the relaxation of the craters have assumed only a uniform, Newtonian viscous response of the near surface to the topographic driving forces, and simply postulated that the fractures resulted from tensile stresses associated with floor uplift. Here, we use a more sophisticated rheological model that includes not only non-Newtonian viscous behavior (i.e., the viscosity is stress-dependent), but also incorporates elastic behavior and a plastic component to the rheology to directly simulate the formation of the floor fractures. The results of our simulations show that while elastoviscoplastic relaxation is potentially viable for larger floor-fracture craters, it is not viable for craters with diameters < or = 60 km, the size of the majority of floor-fracture craters. We employ the finite element method, a numerical technique well suited for boundary-value problems, via the commercially available MARC software package. To test the viability of topographic relaxation, our goal is to prepare the simulations as to maximize the amount of relaxation. We take advantage of the natural axisymmetry of craters, simulating one radial plane. Initial shapes are based on data for fresh craters from Pike. To simplify implementation, a fourth order polynomial is used for the basin, while a third order inverse function is used for the rim. This form closely approximates the long-wavelength behavior of complex craters, while ignoring higher-frequency topography, save the rim. This approximation is appropriate because crater relaxation is strongly controlled by long-wavelength topography. Loading is accomplished assuming a uniform gravity field (1.62 m/s-square) and a uniform density of 2900 kg/cubic m. The initial stress state is set to be hydrostatic, with an additional pressure term to account for any overlying topography. This additional pressure term is tapered exponentially with depth. While the simulations quickly settle on a preferred stress state, and while the final solution is fairly insensitive to the choice of the e-folding depth of the taper, selecting an e-folding depth close to the diameter of the crater sets the initial stress state near the preferred state. We assume a diuranally averaged surface temperature of -20 C, and allow temperature to increase with depth at a rate of 50 K//km. Assuming a thermal conductivity of 2 W/in/K, this gradient translates to a heat flow of 100mW/square m, an extremely high value for the Moon. Temperature, of course, will not increase without bound. To maximize relaxation, we allow our temperature profile to increase linearly until it reaches the solidus (assumed to be 1200C) at a depth of 24.4 km, at which point it is kept constant. The presence of melt will drop the bulk viscosity; however, we have no rheological control for partial melts. Therefore, we make no attempt to simulate this situation. Elastoviscoplastic rheological model. In general, geologic materials can behave in three main ways: elastically, viscously (via solid-state creep), and brittly (plasticity is a continuum approach to simulate this phenomenon). We combine these three deformation mechanisms in an extended Maxwell solid, where the total strain can be broken down into a simple summation of the elastic, creep, and plastic strains. In relaxation phenomena in general, the system takes advantage of any means possible to eliminate deviatoric stresses by relaxing away the topography. Previous analyses have only modeled the viscous response. Comparatively, the elastic response in our model can augment the relaxation, to a point. This effect decreases as the elastic response becomes stiffer; indeed, in the limit of infinite elastic Young's modulus (and with no plasticity), the solution converges on the purely viscous solution. Igneous rocks common to the lunar near-surface have Young's modulii in the range of 10-100 GPa. To maximize relaxation, we use a Young's modulus of 10 GPa. (There is negligible sensitivity to the other elastic modulus, the Poisson's ratio; we use 0.25.) For the viscous response, we use a flow law for steady-state creep in thoroughly dried Columbia diabase, because the high plagioclase (about 70 vol%) and orthopyroxene (about 17 vol%) content is similar to the composition of the lunar highland crust as described by remote sensing and sample studies: noritic anorthosite. This flow law is highly non-Newtonian, i.e., the viscosity is highly stress dependent. That, and the variability with temperature, stands in strong contrast to previous examinations of lunar floor-fracture crater relaxation. To model discrete, brittle faulting, we assume "Byerlee's rule," a standard geodynamical technique. We implement this "rule" with an-angle of internal friction of about 40 deg, and a higher-than-normal cohesion of about 3.2 MPa (to approximate the breaking of unfractured rock). The actual behavior of geologic materials is more complex than in our rheological model, so the uncertainties in the plasticity do not represent the state-of-the-art error. Additional information is contained in the original.

Dombard, A. J.↗

Calculation of TIR Canopy Hot Spot and Implications for Earth Radiation Budget

Using a 3-D model for thermal infrared exitance and the Lowtran 7 atmospheric radiative transfer model, we compute the variation in brightness temperature with view direction and, in particular, the canopy thermal hot spot. We then perform a sensitivity analysis of surface energy balance components for a nominal case using a simple SVAT model given the uncertainty in canopy temperature arising from the thermal hot spot effect. Canopy thermal hot spot variations of two degrees C lead to differences of plus or minus 24% in the midday available energy.

Smith, J. A.↗

Trapped Melt in IIIAB Irons: Solid/Liquid Elemental Partitioning During the Fractionation of the IIIAB Magma

Group IIIAB, the largest iron-meteorite group, shows compositional trends (including a three-order-of-magnitude It concentration range) indicating that it formed by fractional crystallization of a metallic magma. Because about 200 irons are available, and all degrees of crystallization are well represented, IIIAB offers an excellent set of samples for the study of crystallization at all depths of the asteroidal core. On log-log Ir-Au, and Ir-As diagrams IIIAB forms a broad band; the breadth represents real meteorite-to-meteorite variations, far outside experimental or sampling uncertainties. A successful model must explain the width of this band; I suggest that it mainly resulted from the trapping of parental magma within the crystallizing solid. Because S is essentially insoluble in metal, the abundance of FeS is a measure of the fraction of trapped liquid. The trapped-melt model is supported by the observation that irons having higher S contents plot closer to the inferred composition of the magmatic parental liquid. The lowest S values are found in the irons occupying the left envelope of the IIIAB Ir-Au or Ir-As compositional fields, thus it is this set of irons that should be interpreted as the solid products of a fractionating magma. This simplifies the modeling of the crystallization process and allows inferences regarding the distribution ratios for other elements in the evolved IIIAB system. The large (multiton) Cape York irons show wide variations in their trapped-melt fractions; their compositions seem best understood in terms of a low initial S content of the IIIAB magma, about 20 mg/g. The inferred initial IIIAB distribution coefficient for Ir, 4.6, is much higher than published values based on laboratory studies of low-S systems; I suggest that low-S (and low-P) partition-ratio measurements tend to err in the direction of unity. In IIIAB distribution coefficients for Au, As, and Ni were still < 1 when the most evolved IIIAB irons formed, another indication of a low initial S content.

Wasson, John T.↗

Meteoric Ions in Planetary Ionospheres

Solar system debris, in the form of meteoroids, impacts every planet. The flux, relative composition and speed of the debris at each planet depends on the planet's size and location in the solar system. Ablation in the atmosphere evaporates the meteoric material and leaves behind metal atoms. During the ablation process metallic ions are formed by impact ionization. For small inner solar system planets, including Earth, this source of ionization is typically small compared to either photoionization or charge exchange with ambient molecular ions. For Earth, the atmosphere above the main deposition region absorbs the spectral lines capable of ionizing the major metallic atoms (Fe and Mg) so that charge exchange with ambient ions is the dominant source. Within the carbon dioxide atmosphere of Mars (and possibly Venus), photoionization is important in determining the ion density. For a heavy planet like Jupiter, far from the sun, impact ionization of ablated neutral atoms by impacts with molecules becomes a prominent source of ionization due to the gravitational acceleration to high incident speeds. We will describe the processes and location and extent of metal ion layers for Mars, Earth and Jupiter, concentrating on flagging the uncertainties in the models at the present time. This is an important problem, because low altitude ionosphere layers for the planets, particularly at night, probably consist predominantly of metallic ions. Comparisons with Earth will be used to illustrate the differing processes in the three planetary atmospheres.

Pesnell, W. D.↗

Dynamics and Stability and Control Characteristics of the X-37

This paper presents the stability and control analysis and the control design results for the Boeing/NASA/AFRL X-37. The X-37 is a flight demonstrator vehicle that will go into space and after its mission, autonomously reenter and land on a conventional runway. This paper studies the dynamics and control of the X-37 from atmospheric reentry through landing. A nominal trajectory that lands on the Edwards Air Force Base Lakebed is considered for all the analysis and design. The X-37's longitudinal and lateral/directional bare-airframe characteristics are presented. The level of maneuvering control power is assessed. Vehicle trim with multiple surfaces is discussed. Special challenges where the wings loose roll effectiveness are discussed and solutions are presented. Aerodynamic uncertainties and flexibility modeling issues are presented. Control design results and robustness analysis methods are presented. Results are provided for the Entry, Terminal Area Energy Management (TAEM), and Approach and Land phases.

Chaudhary, Ashwani↗

Anchoring the Population II Distance Scale: Accurate Ages for Globular Clusters

The metal-poor stars in the halo of the Milky Way galaxy were among the first objects formed in our Galaxy. These Population II stars are the oldest objects in the universe whose ages can be accurately determined. Age determinations for these stars allow us to set a firm lower limit, to the age of the universe and to probe the early formation history of the Milky Way. The age of the universe determined from studies of Population II stars may be compared to the expansion age of the universe and used to constrain cosmological models. The largest uncertainty in estimates for the ages of stars in our halo is due to the uncertainty in the distance scale to Population II objects. We propose to obtain accurate parallaxes to a number of Population II objects (globular clusters and field stars in the halo) resulting in a significant improvement in the Population II distance scale and greatly reducing the uncertainty in the estimated ages of the oldest stars in our galaxy. At the present time, the oldest stars are estimated to be 12.8 Gyr old, with an uncertainty of approx. 15%. The SIM observations obtained by this key project, combined with the supporting theoretical research and ground based observations outlined in this proposal will reduce the estimated uncertainty in the age estimates to 5%).

Chaboyer, Brian C.↗

Quantifying the Complete Mineral Assemblages in Rocks of GUSEV Crater, Mars

Determining the complete mineralogy of Mars rocks by remote sensing has remained a challenge, because of inherent limitations in the minerals that can be detected and uncertainties in spectral modeling. A subset of the igneous rocks of Gusev crater provide a unique opportunity to determine modal mineralogy, because of limited alteration and the analytical capabilities of the Athena instrument package. Here we estimate the absolute (wt. %) abundances of Fe-bearing minerals from Moessbauer spectra (previously reported only as "areas for component subspectra"), and compare these results to the normative mineralogy calculated from APXS elemental analyses. We also test our preferred mineralogy by comparison of Mini-TES spectra with synthetic thermal emission spectra.

McSween, H. Y.↗

Development of a Climate-Data Record (CDR) of the Surface Temperature of the Greenland Ice Sheet

Regional "clear sky" surface temperature increases since the early 1980s in the Arctic, measured using Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) infrared data, range from 0.57+/-0.02 deg C to 72+/-0.10 deg C per decade. Arctic warming has important implications for ice-sheet mass balance because much of the periphery of the Greenland Ice Sheet is already near 0 deg C during the melt season, and is thus vulnerable to rapid melting if temperatures continue to increase. An increase in melting of the ice sheet would accelerate sea-level rise, an issue affecting potentially billions of people worldwide. To quantify the ice-surface temperature (IST) of the Greenland Ice Sheet, and to provide an IST dataset of Greenland for modelers that provides uncertainties, we are developing a climate-data record (CDR) of daily "clear-sky" IST of the Greenland Ice Sheet, from 1982 to the present using AVHRR (1982 - present) and Moderate-Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data (2000 - present) at a resolution of approximately 5 km. Known issues being addressed in the production of the CDR are: time-series bias caused by cloud cover (surface temperatures can be different under clouds vs. clear areas) and cross-calibration in the overlap period between AVHRR instruments, and between AVHRR and MODIS instruments. Because of uncertainties, mainly due to clouds, time-series of satellite IST do not necessarily correspond with actual surface temperatures. The CDR will be validated by comparing results with automatic-weather station data and with satellite-derived surface-temperature products and biases will be calculated.

Hall, Dorthy K.↗

Using EO-1 Hyperion to Simulate HyspIRI Products for a Coniferous Forest: The Fraction of PAR Absorbed by Chlorophyll (fAPAR(sub chl)) and Leaf Water Content (LWC)

This study presents development of prototype products for terrestrial ecosystems in preparation for the future imaging spectrometer planned for the Hyperspectral Infrared Imager (HyspIRI) mission. We present a successful demonstration example in a coniferous forest of two product prototypes: fraction of photosynthetic active radiation (PAR) absorbed by chlorophyll of a canopy (fAPAR(sub chl)) and leaf water content (LWC), for future HyspIRI implementation at 60 m spatial resolution. For this, we used existing 30 m resolution imaging spectrometer data available from the Earth Observing One (EO-1) Hyperion satellite to simulate and prototype the level one radiometrically corrected radiance (L1R) images expected from the HyspIRI visible through shortwave infrared spectrometer. The HyspIRI-like images were atmospherically corrected to obtain surface reflectance, and spectrally resampled to produce 60 m reflectance images for wavelength regions that were comparable to all seven of the MODerate resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) land bands. Thus, we developed MODIS-like surface reflectance in seven spectral bands at the HyspIRI-like spatial scale, which was utilized to derive fAPARchl and LWC with a coupled canopy-leaf radiative transfer model (PROSAIL2) for the coniferous forest[1]. With this study, we provide additional evidence that the fAPARchl product is more realistic for describing the physiologically active canopy than the traditional fAPAR parameter for the whole canopy (fAPAR(sub canopy)), and thus should replace it in ecosystem process models to reduce uncertainties in terrestrial carbon cycle studies and ecosystem studies.

Zhang, Qingyuan↗

Prevention of Over-Pressurization During Combustion in a Sealed Chamber

The combustion of flammable material in a sealed chamber invariably leads to an initial pressure rise in the volume. The pressure rise is due to the increase in the total number of gaseous moles (condensed fuel plus chamber oxygen combining to form gaseous carbon dioxide and water vapor) and, most importantly, the temperature rise of the gas in the chamber. Though the rise in temperature and pressure would reduce with time after flame extinguishment due to the absorption of heat by the walls and contents of the sealed spacecraft, the initial pressure rise from a fire, if large enough, could lead to a vehicle over-pressure and the release of gas through the pressure relief valve. This paper presents a simple lumped-parameter model of the pressure rise in a sealed chamber resulting from the heat release during combustion. The transient model considers the increase in gaseous moles due to combustion, and heat transfer to the chamber walls by convection and radiation and to the fuel-sample holder by conduction, as a function of the burning rate of the material. The results of the model are compared to the pressure rise in an experimental chamber during flame spread tests as well as to the pressure falloff after flame extinguishment. The experiments involve flame spread over thin solid fuel samples. Estimates of the heat release rate profiles for input to the model come from the assumed stoichiometric burning of the fuel along with the observed flame spread behavior. The sensitivity of the model to predict maximum chamber pressure is determined with respect to the uncertainties in input parameters. Model predictions are also presented for the pressure profile anticipated in the Fire Safety-1 experiment, a material flammability and fire safety experiment proposed for the European Space Agency (ESA) Automated Transfer Vehicle (ATV). Computations are done for a range of scenarios including various initial pressures and sample sizes. Based on these results, various mitigation approaches are suggested to prevent vehicle over-pressurization and help guide the definition of the space experiment.

Gokoglu, Suleyman A.↗

Mars Science Laboratory Entry, Descent, and Landing Trajectory and Atmosphere Reconstruction

On August 5th 2012, The Mars Science Laboratory entry vehicle successfully entered Mars atmosphere and landed the Curiosity rover on its surface. A Kalman filter approach has been implemented to reconstruct the entry, descent, and landing trajectory based on all available data. The data sources considered in the Kalman filtering approach include the inertial measurement unit accelerations and angular rates, the terrain descent sensor, the measured landing site, orbit determination solutions for the initial conditions, and a new set of instrumentation for planetary entry reconstruction consisting of forebody pressure sensors, known as the Mars Entry Atmospheric Data System. These pressure measurements are unique for planetary entry, descent, and landing reconstruction as they enable a reconstruction of the freestream atmospheric conditions without any prior assumptions being made on the vehicle aerodynamics. Moreover, the processing of these pressure measurements in the Kalman filter approach enables the identification of atmospheric winds, which has not been accomplished in past planetary entry reconstructions. This separation of atmosphere and aerodynamics allows for aerodynamic model reconciliation and uncertainty quantification, which directly impacts future missions. This paper describes the mathematical formulation of the Kalman filtering approach, a summary of data sources and preprocessing activities, and results of the reconstruction.

Karlgaard, Christopher D.↗

Warming Experiments Underpredict Plant Phenological Responses to Climate Change

Warming experiments are increasingly relied on to estimate plant responses to global climate change. For experiments to provide meaningful predictions of future responses, they should reflect the empirical record of responses to temperature variability and recent warming, including advances in the timing of flowering and leafing. We compared phenology (the timing of recurring life history events) in observational studies and warming experiments spanning four continents and 1,634 plant species using a common measure of temperature sensitivity (change in days per degree Celsius). We show that warming experiments underpredict advances in the timing of flowering and leafing by 8.5-fold and 4.0-fold, respectively, compared with long-term observations. For species that were common to both study types, the experimental results did not match the observational data in sign or magnitude. The observational data also showed that species that flower earliest in the spring have the highest temperature sensitivities, but this trend was not reflected in the experimental data. These significant mismatches seem to be unrelated to the study length or to the degree of manipulated warming in experiments. The discrepancy between experiments and observations, however, could arise from complex interactions among multiple drivers in the observational data, or it could arise from remediable artefacts in the experiments that result in lower irradiance and drier soils, thus dampening the phenological responses to manipulated warming. Our results introduce uncertainty into ecosystem models that are informed solely by experiments and suggest that responses to climate change that are predicted using such models should be re-evaluated.

phenology↗