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DOE OSTI2025

Correcting for Selection Biases in the Determination of the Hubble Constant from Time-Delay Cosmography

The time delay between multiple images of strongly lensed quasars has been used to infer the Hubble constant. The primary systematic uncertainty for time-delay cosmography is the mass-sheet transform (MST), which preserves the lensing observables while altering the inferred ⁠H 0 . The TDCOSMO collaboration used velocity dispersion measurements of lensed quasars and lensed galaxies to infer that mass sheets are present, which decrease the inferred H 0 by 8 per cent. Here, we test the assumption that the density profiles of galaxy–galaxy and galaxy–quasar lenses are the same. We use a composite star-plus-dark-matter mass profile for the parent deflector population and model the selection function for galaxy–galaxy and galaxy–quasar lenses. We find that a power-law density profile with an MST is a good approximation to a two-component mass profile around the Einstein radius, but we find that galaxy–galaxy lenses have systematically higher mass-sheet components than galaxy–quasar lenses. For individual systems, λ int correlates with the ratio of the half-light radius and Einstein radius of the lens. By propagating these results through the TDCOSMO hierarchical inference code, we find that H 0 is lowered by a further 3 per cent. Using a more recent measurement of velocity dispersions and our fiducial model for selection biases, we infer H 0 = 66 ± 4 (stat) ± 1 (model sys) ± 2 (measurement sys) km s -1 Mpc -1 for the TDCOSMO plus SLACS data set. The first residual systematic error is due to plausible alternative choices in modelling the selection function, and the second is an estimate of the remaining systematic error in the measurement of velocity dispersions for SLACS lenses. Accurate time-delay cosmography requires precise velocity dispersion measurements and accurate calibration of selection biases.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2025

dynamics of organic-mineral interactions at the metal oxide-solution interface as studied via binding energetics (Final report)

This project focused on addressing longstanding fundamental and experimental uncertainties on how dissolved organic substances (DOS) interact with metal oxide surface under environmentally relevant conditions. By leveraging a custom-built real-time, in-tandem flow adsorption microcalorimetry-UV-Vis/fluorescence spectroscopy platform, we characterized the binding energetics, kinetics and mechanistic pathways driving DOS-metal oxide interactions at temporal resolution on the order of 1-5 seconds. We studied a diverse suite of model organic compounds/substances – including monocarboxylates (e.g. acetate and benzoate), di-carboxylates (oxalate and succinate), amino acids, amino-based nanparticles and natural organic matter – interacting at the mineral-water interface of structurally- and/or chemically distinct metal oxides (including SiO2, boehmite, ferrihydrite, and γ-Al2O3). Our results indicated that DOS-metal oxide interactions are governed by multi-step reaction pathways, often switching between distinct, resolvable enthalpy- and entropy-driven non-electrostatic or electrostatic configurations. To quantify these interactions, we developed and implemented an analytical workflow that integrates peak deconvolution and Monte-Carlo based error propagation to determine site-specific thermodynamic and kinetic parameters for individual binding/debinding events. In addition to resolving apparent first-order rate constants of each event, we were able to quantify associated apparent equilibrium constants as well as free energy, enthalpy and entropy contribution to the activation and subsequent progression of the binding/debinding process across compounds, compound class and metal oxide surfaces. The kinetic-thermodynamic data produced in this study captured how the interplay between oxide surface reactivity and DOS molecular structure jointly drives binding-debinding dynamics. Notably, that at pH below PZC of the oxide surface, neutral species were heavily involved in monocarboxylate binding, while anionic species drove dicarboxylate binding. Also, that among amino acids 1) positional isomers show distinctive binding characteristics to each other while enantiomers show no significant differences in binding characteristics, 2) molecules that bind via outer-sphere complexation show a larger entropic shift between binding and debinding with no impact on oxide surface while 3) inner-sphere interactions increased anion exchange capacity of the oxide surface. The new insights and data from this work has great potential for improving predictive modeling of carbon dynamics and specifically organic-mineral interactions in environmental and industrial systems.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2015

Coupled Inertial Navigation and Flush Air Data Sensing Algorithm for Atmosphere Estimation

This paper describes an algorithm for atmospheric state estimation that is based on a coupling between inertial navigation and flush air data sensing pressure measurements. In this approach, the full navigation state is used in the atmospheric estimation algorithm along with the pressure measurements and a model of the surface pressure distribution to directly estimate atmospheric winds and density using a nonlinear weighted least-squares algorithm. The approach uses a high fidelity model of atmosphere stored in table-look-up form, along with simplified models of that are propagated along the trajectory within the algorithm to provide prior estimates and covariances to aid the air data state solution. Thus, the method is essentially a reduced-order Kalman filter in which the inertial states are taken from the navigation solution and atmospheric states are estimated in the filter. The algorithm is applied to data from the Mars Science Laboratory entry, descent, and landing from August 2012. Reasonable estimates of the atmosphere and winds are produced by the algorithm. The observability of winds along the trajectory are examined using an index based on the discrete-time observability Gramian and the pressure measurement sensitivity matrix. The results indicate that bank reversals are responsible for adding information content to the system. The algorithm is then applied to the design of the pressure measurement system for the Mars 2020 mission. The pressure port layout is optimized to maximize the observability of atmospheric states along the trajectory. Linear covariance analysis is performed to assess estimator performance for a given pressure measurement uncertainty. The results indicate that the new tightly-coupled estimator can produce enhanced estimates of atmospheric states when compared with existing algorithms.

Karlgaard, Christopher D.↗

NASA NTRS1986

Detonation wave compression in gas turbines

A study was made of the concept of augmenting the performance of low pressure ratio gas turbines by detonation wave compression of part of the flow. The concept exploits the constant volume heat release of detonation waves to increase the efficiency of the Brayton cycle. In the models studied, a fraction of the compressor output was channeled into detonation ducts where it was processed by transient transverse detonation waves. Gas dynamic studies determined the maximum cycling frequency of detonation ducts, proved that upstream propagation of pressure pulses represented no problems and determined the variations of detonation duct output with time. Mixing and wave compression were used to recombine the combustor and detonation duct flows and a concept for a spiral collector to further smooth the pressure and temperature pulses was presented as an optional component. The best performance was obtained with a single firing of the ducts so that the flow could be re-established before the next detonation was initiated. At the optimum conditions of maximum frequency of the detonation ducts, the gas turbine efficiency was found to be 45 percent while that of a corresponding pressure ratio 5 conventional gas turbine was only 26%. Comparable improvements in specific fuel consumption data were found for gas turbines operating as jet engines, turbofans, and shaft output machines. Direct use of the detonation duct output for jet propulsion proved unsatisfactory. Careful analysis of the models of the fluid flow phenomena led to the conclusion that even more elaborate calculations would not diminish the uncertainties in the analysis of the system. Feasibility of the concept to work as an engine now requires validation in an engineering laboratory experiment.

Wortman, A.↗

DOE OSTI2021

Theoretical kinetics predictions for NH 2 + HO 2

Recent modeling studies of NH 3 oxidation, which are motivated by the prospective role of ammonia as a zero-carbon fuel, have indicated significant discrepancies between existing literature mechanisms. In this study high level theoretical kinetics predictions have been obtained for the reaction of NH 2 with HO 2 , which has previously been highlighted as an important reaction with high sensitivity and high uncertainty. The potential energy surface is explored with coupled cluster calculations including large basis sets and high-level corrections to yield high accuracy (~0.2 kcal/mol) estimates of the stationary point energies. Variational transition state theory is used to predict the microcanonical rate constants, which are then incorporated in master equation treatments of the temperature and pressure dependent kinetics. For the radical-radical channels, the microcanonical rates are obtained from variable reaction coordinate transition state theory implementing directly evaluated multireference electronic energies. The analysis yields predictions for the total rate constant as well as the branching to the NH 3 + O 2 , H 2 NO + OH, and HNO + H 2 O channels. Rate constants are also reported for the H 2 NO + OH reaction as they arise naturally from the analysis. The rate constant and branching fraction determined in this work for the NH 2 + HO 2 reaction deviate significantly from values used in most previous modeling studies. The fact that the main product channel is chain terminating, rather than propagating, has strong implications for modeling NH 3 ignition and oxidation, in particular at intermediate temperatures and elevated pressure.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

NASA NTRS2012

A Geometric Analysis to Protect Manned Assets from Newly Launched Objects - COLA Gap Analysis

A safety risk was identified for the International Space Station (ISS) by The Aerospace Corporation following the launch of GPS IIR-20 (March 24, 2009), when the spent upper stage of the launch vehicle unexpectedly crossed inside the ISS notification box shortly after launch. This event highlighted a 56-hour vulnerability period following the end of the launch Collision Avoidance (COLA) process where the ISS would be unable to react to a conjunction with a newly launched object. Current launch COLA processes screen each launched object across the launch window to determine if an object's nominal trajectory is predicted to pass within 200 km of the ISS (or any other manned/mannable object), resulting in a launch time closure. These launch COLA screens are performed from launch through separation plus I 00 minutes. Once the objects are in orbit, they are cataloged and evaluated as part of routine on-orbit conjunction assessment processes. However, as the GPS IIR-20 scenario illustrated, there is a vulnerability period in the time line between the end of launch COLA coverage and the beginning of standard on-orbit COLA assessment activities. The gap between existing launch and on-orbit COLA processes is driven by the time it takes to track and catalog a launched object, identify a conjunction, and plan and execute a collision avoidance maneuver. For the ISS, the total time required to accomplish an of these steps is 56 hours. To protect human lives, NASA/JSC has requested that an US launches take additional steps to protect the ISS during this "COLA gap" period. The uncertainty in the state of a spent upper stage can be quite large after all bums are complete and all remaining propellants are expelled to safe the stage. Simply extending the launch COLA process an additional 56 hours is not a viable option as the 3-sigma position uncertainty will far exceed the 200 km miss-distance criterion. Additionally, performing a probability of collision (Pc) analysis over this period is also not practical due to the limiting effects of these large orbit state uncertainties. An estimated upper bound for Pc for a typical spent upper stage if nominally aligned for a direct broadside collision with the ISS is only on the order of 10-6. For a smaller manned object such as a Soyuz capsule, the risk level decreases to an order of 10'8 . In comparison, the Air Force Range policy (AFI 91-217) for launch COLAs would only eliminate launch opportunities when conjunctions with objects exceed a Pc of 10'5 This paper demonstrates a conservative geometry-based methodology that may be used to determine if launch opportunities pose a threat to the ISS during the COLA gap period. The NASA Launch Services Program at Kennedy Space Center has developed this COLA gap analysis method and employed it fQr three NASA missions to identify potential ISS conjunctions and corresponding launch window closures during the 56-hour at-risk period. In the analysis, for each launch opportunity, the nominal trajectory of the spent upper stage and the orbit state of the ISS are propagated over the 56 hour period. Each time the upper stage crosses the orbit plane of the ISS, the relative radial and argument of latitude separations are calculated. A window cutout is identified if these separation differences fall within a mission-specific violation box, which is determined from the evaluation of a Monte Carlo dispersions analysis that quantifies the potential variation in the upper stage radial and argument of latitude differences. This paper details the results of these analyses and their impacts to each mission.

Hametz, Mark E.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Navigation Performance of the BioSentinel Deep Space CubeSat Mission

The BioSentinel mission was recently launched aboard the SLS launch vehicle (LV) as part of the Artemis- 1 campaign. The BioSentinel navigation team successfully tracked and guided the spacecraft through a lunar gravity assist to its destination Earth-trailing heliocentric orbit. This 6U CubeSat carries live yeast cells to analyze the effects of radiation at large distances from Earth, becoming the first biological payload in Deep Space. Prelaunch activities included mission design updates, orbit determination rehearsals and the development of a tracking schedule in coordination with the Artemis-1 payload office and the Deep Space Network (DSN). An important influence on the trajectories of Artemis I secondaries was the uncertainty associated with deployment from the Interim Cryogenic Propulsion System (ICPS), the upper stage of the SLS LV. The ICPS was rotating at a rate of 1 rpm; there was also an uncertainty in the spin axis attitude, which translated into an unknown clock angle of deployment. The variability in this angle and magnitude of deployment implied the existence of a non-negligible risk of a lunar impact, which was evaluated for various potential launch dates. We present the results of Monte Carlo analyses and compute the pertinent maneuvers to avoid it. In addition, we present a comparison with the actual deployment once the mission launched by reconstructing our trajectory with tracking data. On November 16th 2022 BioSentinel successfully deployed from ICPS and the navigation team started to receive 2-way Doppler and Sequential Ranging data from the DSN. We processed early data to try to obtain a first ephemeris using Initial Orbit Determination (IOD) methods such as the least squares. Soon after deployment, the spacecraft was tumbling and entered safe mode, creating a period where the tracking data were sparse. The mission team recovered the spacecraft and after four tracking passes, we solved for a first ephemeris that was sent to the DSN for better tracking of the spacecraft. After propagating this first ephemeris solution, we determined that we avoided impact with a margin of a few hundred km from the lunar surface. More tracking data over the next few days (from DSN as well as ESA antennas) allowed for a more refined orbit solution predicting a periselene altitude of 406 km and a lunar eclipse lasting 36.5 minutes. Therefore, BioSentinel operators aborted any correction maneuvers. This periselene altitude also gave us the necessary energy to achieve a heliocentric orbit. The next challenge was due to the necessary adjustments in our orbit determination method due to the large energy boost resulting from the lunar flyby. After a series of tracking passes we were able to get a nominal solution that resulted into a stable trajectory. This paper discusses in detail the navigation performance using the X-band IRIS transponder, as well as the challenges and lessons learned prior to and during this deep space, CubeSat mission.

Andres Dono Perez↗

DOE OSTI2025

Simulation of Physics-Based 0-10Hz Strong Motion Using High Performance Computing Supporting Refinements to Regional Ground Motion Models for the Central Eastern US

In collaboration with the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) the LLNL has developed a computationally efficient simulation platform designed to perform physics-based ground motion simulations for crustal earthquakes in the Stable Continental Regions of Central and Eastern US (CEUS), using high-performance computing. The main objective of the earthquake simulations was to use synthetic ground motion to provide constrains to refinements of existing ergodic Ground Motion Models (GMMs), for large magnitude earthquakes and near-fault distances, for which these models are less reliable. Physics-based broadband (0-10Hz) ground motion simulations were used to estimate the near-fault ground motion amplitudes and within event and between-event variabilities associated with fault rupture characteristics. In our simulations we used a 3D regional velocity model that was based on Saikia’s 1D velocity model (1994). In simulations performed during the first stage of this project the Saikia’s velocity model demonstrated better performance in modelling high frequency regional wave propagation for the CEUS region recorded during the Mw5.0 November 7, 2016, Cushing Oklahoma (Taylor et al., 2017), and Mw5.8 September 3, 2016, Pawnee Oklahoma earthquakes. The proposed regional 3D model includes random perturbations to the 1D background model using the stochastic scheme of Pitarka and Mellors (2021). In addition, validation analysis of the rupture generator and regional wave propagation models, using comparisons with different GMMs for Mw6.5 and Mw7.0 scenario earthquakes in the CEUS region resulted in a very good match between the simulated and empirical ground motion models. For the purposes of seismic hazard assessment at the existing and planned nuclear power plants, NRC is interested in studies aimed at improving the current ground motion models (GMM) for both Stable Continental Regions (SCR) in the Central and Eastern US and Active Crustal Regions (ACR) in the Western US. Due to lack of recorded data, these improvements require synthetic data for short fault distances and large magnitude earthquakes for which the existing recorded data is not enough to uniquely constrain the GMMs. The need for simulations and strong motion data is especially critical for the CEUS region where we do not have recorded data from potentially large damaging earthquakes with moment magnitudes 6.0 and higher. In this the project, we focused on 10Hz simulations of Mw7.0 scenario earthquakes with strike slip and thrust faulting mechanisms. We used more than 50 Mw7.0 earthquake rupture scenarios to investigate the ground motion uncertainty due to unknown earthquake rupture parameters, in particular, the slip distribution, rupture velocity, and faulting mechanism, and their implication on ground motion amplification due to forward rupture directivity effects.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

NASA NTRS2000

Burning in Outer Space: Microgravity

A better understanding of combustion can lead to significant technological advances, such as less polluting, more fuel-efficient vehicles. Unfortunately, gravity can interfere with the study of combustion. Gravity drags down gases that are cooler- and, therefore, denser-than heated gases. This movement mixes the fuel and the oxidizer substance that promotes burning. Because of this mixing, an observer cannot necessarily distinguish what is happening as a result of the natural combustion process and what is caused, by the pull of gravity. To remove this uncertainty, scientists can conduct experiments that simulate the negation of gravity through freefall. This condition is known as a microgravity environment. A micro-gravity experiment may take place in a chamber that is dropped down a hole or from a high-speed drop tower. The experiment also be conducted in an airplane or a rocket during freefall in a parabolic flight path. This method provides less than a minute of microgravity at most. An experiment that requires the prolonged absence of gravity may necessitate the use of an orbiting spacecraft as a venue. However, access to an orbital laboratory is difficult to acquire. High-end computing centers such as the NCCS can provide a practical alternative to operating in microgravity. Scientists can model phenomena such as combustion without gravitys observational interference. The study of microgravity combustion produces important benefits beyond increased observational accuracy. Certain valuable materials that are produced through combustion can be formed with a more uniform crystal structure-and, therefore, improved structural quality-when the pull of gravity is removed. Furthermore, understanding how fires propagate in the absence of gravity can improve fire safety aboard spacecraft.

Matkowsky, Bernard↗

NASA NTRS2002

Pulse Detonation Rocket MHD Power Experiment

A pulse detonation research engine (MSFC (Marshall Space Flight Center) Model PDRE (Pulse Detonation Rocket Engine) G-2) has been developed for the purpose of examining integrated propulsion and magnetohydrodynamic power generation applications. The engine is based on a rectangular cross-section tube coupled to a converging-diverging nozzle, which is in turn attached to a segmented Faraday channel. As part of the shakedown testing activity, the pressure wave was interrogated along the length of the engine while running on hydrogen/oxygen propellants. Rapid transition to detonation wave propagation was insured through the use of a short Schelkin spiral near the head of the engine. The measured detonation wave velocities were in excess of 2500 m/s in agreement with the theoretical C-J velocity. The engine was first tested in a straight tube configuration without a nozzle, and the time resolved thrust was measured simultaneously with the head-end pressure. Similar measurements were made with the converging-diverging nozzle attached. The time correlation of the thrust and head-end pressure data was found to be excellent. The major purpose of the converging-diverging nozzle was to configure the engine for driving an MHD generator for the direct production of electrical power. Additional tests were therefore necessary in which seed (cesium-hydroxide dissolved in methanol) was directly injected into the engine as a spray. The exhaust plume was then interrogated with a microwave interferometer in an attempt to characterize the plasma conditions, and emission spectroscopy measurements were also acquired. Data reduction efforts indicate that the plasma exhaust is very highly ionized, although there is some uncertainty at this time as to the relative abundance of negative OH ions. The emission spectroscopy data provided some indication of the species in the exhaust as well as a measurement of temperature. A 24-electrode-pair segmented Faraday channel and 0.6 Tesla permanent magnet assembly were then installed on Marshall Space Flight Center's (MSFC's) rectangular channel pulse detonation research engine. Magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) electrical power extraction experiments were carried out for a range of load impedances in which cesium hydroxide seed (dissolved in methanol) was sprayed into the gaseous oxygen/hydrogen propellants. Positive power extraction was obtained, but preliminary analysis of the data indicated that the plasma electrical conductivity is lower than anticipated and the near-electrode voltage drop is not negligible. It is believed that the electrical conductivity is reduced due to a large population of negative OH ions. This occurs because OH has a strong affinity for capturing free electrons. The effect of near-electrode voltage drop is associated with the high surface-to-volume ratio of the channel (1-inch by 1-inch cross-section) where surface effects play a dominant role. As usual for MHD devices, higher performance will require larger scale devices. Overall, the gathered data is extremely valuable from the standpoint of understanding plasma behavior and for developing empirical scaling laws.

Litchford, Ron J.↗

NASA NTRS1992

Multiple scattering lidar returns from stratus clouds

Multiple scattering lidar returns from stratus clouds were measured using a multi-field-of-view (MFOV) lidar operating at 1.054 microns. The detector consists of four concentric silicon photodiodes which define half-angle fields of view (FOV) of 3.8, 12.5, 25 and 38.5 mrad. The central FOV receives the conventional lidar signal, while the outer FOV's receive only multiply scattered contributions. The ratios of the signals in the outer FOV's to the signal in the central FOV is an indication of the lateral spreading of the scattered component of the laser pulse as it propagates through the cloud. MFOV lidar returns from stratus clouds measured between October 1991 and March 1992 can be divided into two distinct types, those with large multiple scattering ratios and those with small ratios. An example of each type of return is shown. Both measurements were made at an elevation angle of 45 degrees. Clouds with small multiple scattering signals probably have a high concentration of much larger particles on the order of hundreds of micrometers in size. This is a typical size range for suspended ice crystals or precipitations. Stratus clouds often have a high concentration of ice crystals even when there is no precipitation. Large ice crystals would give smaller signals in the outer FOV's because much of the scattered intensity is contained in a narrow diffraction peak with an angular width on the order of milliradians. The result is that for a given extinction, many more orders of scattering are required for the laser pulse to spread out. So far we have not been able to do simulations of MFOV lidar returns from ice crystal clouds because of uncertainties about the phase function of the crystals, particularly the magnitude of the backscatter peak at 180 degrees. On two occasions, MFOV lidar returns measured just prior to snowfall, showed a striking vertical profile. An example is shown. From 900 to 1300m, the multiply scattered signals are negligible compared to the return in the central FOV. Abruptly, at 1300m strong signals begin in the outer FOVs. These results could be explained by the presence of a cloud layer composed of water droplets at a range of 1300m (or 900m above ground) with snow precipitations forming at the bottom of the cloud. By measuring the polarization ratio of lidar signals, Pal and Carswell have observed snow precipitating from a cloud layer composed of water droplets. Based on these results, we believe that analysis of multiple scattering lidar returns can yield important information on the phase of cloud particles.

Hutt, D. L.↗

DOE OSTI2023

Interpretation of Fracture Initiation Points by In-Well Low-Frequency Distributed Acoustic Sensing in Horizontal Wells

Summary Low-frequency distributed acoustic sensing (LF-DAS) exploits the optical phase shift of Rayleigh backscatter in fiber-optic cables to obtain distributed measurements of changes in strain and temperature. Fiber-optic cables are often installed for multistage hydraulic fracture diagnostics in horizontal wells. LF-DAS in an untreated well provides far-field strain measurements, while offset wells are hydraulically fractured. Such a configuration is called crosswell LF-DAS sensing. Crosswell LF-DAS measurements have proved useful in diagnosing fracture hits, fracture azimuth, planarity, cluster efficiency, fracture propagation rates, and the dynamic distance to the fracture front. In contrast, in-well LF-DAS is conducted on the actively fractured well. Due to cool fracture fluid being injected at high injection rates, the strain component of the LF-DAS response is largely obscured by temperature changes. In permanent fiber-optic cable installations, distributed temperature sensing (DTS) is often conducted simultaneously with LF-DAS. An opportunity exists to decouple the temperature and strain components of LF-DAS sensors to observe strain changes on in-well LF-DAS. The LF-DAS response is modeled as linearly dependent on strain and temperature changes. Theoretical LF-DAS temperature and strain sensitivity coefficients are derived based on the changes to the index of refraction and length of the fiber. Using the DTS measurements, temperature changes are computed, smoothed, filtered, and compared to the LF-DAS response. Crossplots of the in-well LF-DAS measurements and temperature changes from DTS measurements far from the actively fractured region are used to validate the theoretical sensitivity coefficients. Uncertainty in the temperature component of the LF-DAS response is quantified. The difficulty in corresponding the different spatial and temporal resolutions of the DTS and LF-DAS measurements is overcome by comparing the responses over a moving temporal and spatial window. If the LF-DAS response at the center of the window agrees with the DTS response within uncertainty, the measurement is filtered out. After filtering, the remaining nonzero in-well LF-DAS measurements are due to changes in strain. The data are then visualized in waterfall plots. The results indicate that the theoretical and observed strain and temperature coefficients agree within 10%. After the temperature component of the in-well LF-DAS response is extracted, the remaining nonzero measurements are located primarily within the actively treated region. Locations with peaks in the strain response are interpreted to indicate fracture initiation points. These fracture initiation points are compared with in-well DTS and high-frequency DAS noise measurements across multiple stages to better understand fracture initiation along the horizontal well.

Engineering↗

NASA NTRS2022

Precision Measurement of the Nickel Spectrum in Cosmic Rays from 8.8 GeV/n to 240 GeV/n with CALET on the International Space Station

The relative abundance of nickel with respect to iron is by far larger than all other trans-iron elements, therefore it provides a favourable opportunity for a low background measurement of its spectrum. Since nickel, as well as iron, is one of the most stable nuclei, the nickel energy spectrum and its relative abundance with respect to iron provide important information to estimate the abundances at the source and to model the propagation of heavy nuclei. However, only a few direct measurements of cosmic-ray nickel at energy larger than∼3 GeV/n are available at present in the literature and they are affected by strong limitations in both energy reach and statistics. In this paper we present a measurement of the differential energy spectrum of nickel from 8.8 GeV/nto 240 GeV/n, carried out with unprecedented precision by the Calorimetric Electron1 Telescope(CALET) in operation on the International Space Station since 2015. The CALET instrument can identify individual nuclear species via a measurement of their electric charge with a dynamic range extending far beyond iron (up to atomic number Z = 40). The particle’s energy is measured by a homogeneous calorimeter (1.2 proton interaction lengths, 27 radiation lengths) preceded by a thin imaging section (3 radiation lengths) providing tracking and energy sampling. This paper follows our previous measurement of the iron spectrum [1] and it extends our investigation on the energy dependence of the spectral index of heavy elements. It reports the analysis of nickel data collected from November 2015 to May 2021 and a detailed assessment of the systematic uncertainties. In the region from 20 GeV/nto 240 GeV/n our present data are compatible within the errors with a single power law with spectral index−2.51±0.07.

O Adriani↗

NASA NTRS2003

Modeling Candle Flame Behavior In Variable Gravity

The burning of a candle, as typical non-propagating diffusion flame, has been used by a number of researchers to study the effects of electric fields on flame, spontaneous flame oscillation and flickering phenomena, and flame extinction. In normal gravity, the heat released from combustion creates buoyant convection that draws oxygen into the flame. The strength of the buoyant flow depends on the gravitational level and it is expected that the flame shape, size and candle burning rate will vary with gravity. Experimentally, there exist studies of candle burning in enhanced gravity (i.e. higher than normal earth gravity, g(sub e)), and in microgravity in drop towers and space-based facilities. There are, however, no reported experimental data on candle burning in partial gravity (g < g(sub e)). In a previous numerical model of the candle flame, buoyant forces were neglected. The treatment of momentum equation was simplified using a potential flow approximation. Although the predicted flame characteristics agreed well with the experimental results, the model cannot be extended to cases with buoyant flows. In addition, because of the use of potential flow, no-slip boundary condition is not satisfied on the wick surface. So there is some uncertainty on the accuracy of the predicted flow field. In the present modeling effort, the full Navier-Stokes momentum equations with body force term is included. This enables us to study the effect of gravity on candle flames (with zero gravity as the limiting case). In addition, we consider radiation effects in more detail by solving the radiation transfer equation. In the previous study, flame radiation is treated as a simple loss term in the energy equation. Emphasis of the present model is on the gas-phase processes. Therefore, the detailed heat and mass transfer phenomena inside the porous wick are not treated. Instead, it is assumed that a thin layer of liquid fuel coated the entire wick surface during the burning process. This is the limiting case that the mass transfer process in the wick is much faster than the evaporation process at the wick surface.

Alsairafi, A.↗

DOE OSTI2023

BeyondPlanck: XII. Cosmological parameter constraints with end-to-end error propagation

We present cosmological parameter constraints estimated using the Bayesian BEYONDPLANCK analysis framework. This method supports seamless end-to-end error propagation from raw time-ordered data onto final cosmological parameters. As a first demonstration of the method, we analyzed time-ordered Planck LFI observations, combined with selected external data (WMAP 33–61 GHz, Planck HFI DR4 353 and 857 GHz, and Haslam 408 MHz) in the form of pixelized maps that are used to break critical astrophysical degeneracies. Overall, all the results are generally in good agreement with previously reported values from Planck 2018 and WMAP, with the largest relative difference for any parameter amounting about 1σ when considering only temperature multipoles between 30 ≤ ℓ ≤ 600. In cases where there are differences, we note that the BEYONDPLANCK results are generally slightly closer to the high-ℓ HFI-dominated Planck 2018 results than previous analyses, suggesting slightly less tension between low and high multipoles. Using low-ℓ polarization information from LFI and WMAP, we find a best-fit value of τ = 0.066 ± 0.013, which is higher than the low value of τ = 0.052 ± 0.008 derived from Planck 2018 and slightly lower than the value of 0.069 ± 0.011 derived from the joint analysis of official LFI and WMAP products. Most importantly, however, we find that the uncertainty derived in the BEYONDPLANCK processing is about 30 % greater than when analyzing the official products, after taking into account the different sky coverage. We argue that this uncertainty is due to a marginalization over a more complete model of instrumental and astrophysical parameters, which results in more reliable and more rigorously defined uncertainties. We find that about 2000 Monte Carlo samples are required to achieve a robust convergence for a low-resolution cosmic microwave background (CMB) covariance matrix with 225 independent modes, and producing these samples takes about eight weeks on a modest computing cluster with 256 cores.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Estimating Explosion Yields Using Moment Tensor Solutions and Seismic Moment

We report seismic moment, a measurable and well-understood quantity of seismic sources, is used to estimate the yield of explosions. Application of such a method in the past, as in the manner of m b -derived yields, has been complicated by the effect of variations in the explosion working point, depth, and secondary source effects (such as spalling and tectonic release) on the observed moment. We start using the full (six-element) moment tensor solution, which can capture the relevant source physics and, at least in theory, better isolate the primary explosion source. The moment-to-yield ratio is then estimated using an explosion source model which, provided with emplacement conditions, can relate the two parameters. We discuss the major sources of uncertainty associated with the method, and calibrate it with chemical and nuclear explosions at the Nevada National Security Site. We then apply the method to published moment tensor solutions for the six declared North Korean nuclear explosions that occurred between 2006 and 2017. The results are mostly consistent with other yield estimates made using a variety of high-frequency methods. This technique is a new approach to estimating explosive yield and simple to implement, as much of the complexity is captured by the source models.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Characterizing Greater Houston's Aerosol by Air Mass During TRACER

During the TRacking Aerosol and Convection interaction ExpeRiment (TRACER), a suite of aerosol and cloud measurements were made using the Texas A&M Rapid Onsite Atmospheric Measurement Van (ROAM-V) mobile instrument platform. Joint ROAM-V/radiosonde deployments focused on sampling polluted marine and continental air masses to understand summertime convection along and across the sea-breeze front as it propagated through Houston. The polluted marine air mass at Seawolf Park, Galveston, TX was defined by two characteristic aerosol populations. Although the background total particle concentrations averaged 2,500 cm −3 , the air mass was also influenced by frequent but irregular periods of ship emission with significantly higher aerosol concentrations at times exceeding 34,000 cm −3 . Ship emission influenced periods, typically lasting <10 min, contained smaller, less hygroscopic particles resulting in a 69% relative decline in cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) activated fraction at 1% supersaturation compared to background periods. Measurements in continental air masses northwest of Houston revealed an average aerosol concentration of 5,208 cm −3 with a κ value near 0.1 reasonably describing the CCN population, independent of particle size. In continental air masses, substantial differences in particle size and CCN activation over small distances (<42 miles between sites) suggest considerable site-to-site variability in addition to the expected day-to-day differences. This small-scale variability makes it difficult to generalize continental air mass aerosol properties. Both coastal and inland locations had effective ice nucleating particles, but inland deployments observed the warmest nucleation temperature at −15.6°C compared to −17.8°C close to the coast. These measurements can reduce uncertainties in regional convection allowing models to improve understanding of aerosol-cloud interactions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Microbiome assembly in thawing permafrost and its feedbacks to climate

Abstract The physical and chemical changes that accompany permafrost thaw directly influence the microbial communities that mediate the decomposition of formerly frozen organic matter, leading to uncertainty in permafrost–climate feedbacks. Although changes to microbial metabolism and community structure are documented following thaw, the generality of post‐thaw assembly patterns across permafrost soils of the world remains uncertain, limiting our ability to predict biogeochemistry and microbial community responses to climate change. Based on our review of the Arctic microbiome, permafrost microbiology, and community ecology, we propose that Assembly Theory provides a framework to better understand thaw‐mediated microbiome changes and the implications for community function and climate feedbacks. This framework posits that the prevalence of deterministic or stochastic processes indicates whether the community is well‐suited to thrive in changing environmental conditions. We predict that on a short timescale and following high‐disturbance thaw (e.g., thermokarst), stochasticity dominates post‐thaw microbiome assembly, suggesting that functional predictions will be aided by detailed information about the microbiome. At a longer timescale and lower‐intensity disturbance (e.g., active layer deepening), deterministic processes likely dominate, making environmental parameters sufficient for predicting function. We propose that the contribution of stochastic and deterministic processes to post‐thaw microbiome assembly depends on the characteristics of the thaw disturbance, as well as characteristics of the microbial community, such as the ecological and phylogenetic breadth of functional guilds, their functional redundancy, and biotic interactions. These propagate across space and time, potentially providing a means for predicting the microbial forcing of greenhouse gas feedbacks to global climate change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗