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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 1,009 records · Page 56
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Task-oriented machine learning surrogates for tipping points of agent-based models

We present a machine learning framework bridging manifold learning, neural networks, Gaussian processes, and Equation-Free multiscale approach, for the construction of different types of effective reduced order models from detailed agent-based simulators and the systematic multiscale numerical analysis of their emergent dynamics. The specific tasks of interest here include the detection of tipping points, and the uncertainty quantification of rare events near them. Our illustrative examples are an event-driven, stochastic financial market model describing the mimetic behavior of traders, and a compartmental stochastic epidemic model on an Erdös-Rényi network. We contrast the pros and cons of the different types of surrogate models and the effort involved in learning them. Importantly, the proposed framework reveals that, around the tipping points, the emergent dynamics of both benchmark examples can be effectively described by a one-dimensional stochastic differential equation, thus revealing the intrinsic dimensionality of the normal form of the specific type of the tipping point. This allows a significant reduction in the computational cost of the tasks of interest.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Closing in on Hydrologic Predictive Accuracy: Combining the Strengths of High-Fidelity and Physics-Agnostic Models

Applications of process-based models (PBM) for predictions are confounded by multiple uncertainties and computational burdens, resulting in appreciable errors. A novel modeling framework combining a high-fidelity PBM with surrogate and machine learning (ML) models is developed to tackle these challenges and applied for streamflow prediction. A surrogate model permits high computational efficiency of a PBM solution at a minimum loss of its accuracy. A novel probabilistic ML model partitions the PBM-surrogate prediction errors into reducible and irreducible types, quantifying their distributions that arise due to both explicitly perceived uncertainties (such as parametric) or those that are entirely hidden to the modeler (not included or unexpected). Using this approach, we demonstrate a substantial improvement of streamflow predictive accuracy for a case study urbanized watershed. Such a framework provides an efficient solution combining the strengths of high-fidelity and physics-agnostic models for a wide range of prediction problems in geosciences.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Model Inputs, Outputs, and Scripts associated with: “Combined effects of stream hydrology and land use on basin-scale hyporheic zone denitrification in the Columbia River Basin”

This data package is associated with the publication “Combined effects of stream hydrology and land use on basin‐scale hyporheic zone denitrification in the Columbia River Basin”, published in Water Resource Research (Son et al.2022) available at https://doi.org/10.1029/2021WR031131. This data package includes the key model inputs/outputs of the river corridor model for the Columbia River Basin (CRB) and the model source codes used in the manuscript. The model is a carbon-nitrogen-coupled river corridor model (RCM), and the model is used to quantify hyporheic zone (HZ) denitrification at the NHDPLUS stream reach scales. The RCM used in this study combines empirical substrate models derived from observations and three microbially driven reactions, including two-step denitrification and aerobic respiration, are considered within the HZ. The key input data of the model are exchange flux, residence time, and stream solute (dissolved organic carbon (DOC), dissolved oxygen (DO), and nitrate concentrations). These inputs are constant over time and represent long-term averaged values. This study uses the RCM to explore the spatial patterns of HZ denitrification across reaches with different sizes and land use in the CRB. Our main objective is to use the RCM as a virtual reality model, and the machine-learning models as surrogates that encapsulate the complexities of the physics-based model while identifying the importance of different variables that are not evident in the model conceptualization. We do not include a direct comparison of the modeled HZ denitrification and measurements; however, the RCM can capture the overall spatial patterns of the HZ denitrification because the model inputs and its reaction networks are based on well-established theory and a physical-based model. The combination of the model-based predictions and a machine-learning approach (e.g., random forest) is used to improve our understanding of what variables of the model are associated with spatial patterns of the modeled denitrification across reaches with different sizes and land uses, and to develop a proxy model using measurable variables to reproduce the simulated patterns.This dataset contains five folders: (1) model_inputs, (2) model_outputs, (3) Rscripts, (4) figures, and (5) model_codes. It also contains a readme, file level metadata (FLMD), and data dictionary (dd). Please see the FLMD for a list of all the files contained in this data package and descriptions for each. The model_inputs folder contains the model inputs used to drive the model simulations. The model_outputs folder contains key model output files from the river corridor model. The Rscripts folder contains the Rscripts for pre- and post- processing model results. The figures folder contains the raw figures associated with the manuscript. The model_codes folder includes key model source codes/input files. All files are .jpg, .jpeg, .out, .e, .od, .dat, .sub, .F90, .0, .R, .sbx, .cpg, .sbn, .shx, .shp, .dbf, .prj, .tfw, .tif, .xml, .pdf, or .csv.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Application of Machine Learning to Predict the Response of the Liquid Mercury Target at the Spallation Neutron Source

The Spallation Neutron Source (SNS) at Oak Ridge National Laboratory is currently the most powerful accelerator-driven neutron source in the world. The intense proton pulses strike on SNS’s mercury target to provide bright neutron beams, which also leads to severe fluid-structure interactions inside the target. Prediction of resultant loading on the target is difficult particularly when helium gas is intentionally injected into mercury to reduce the loading and mitigate the pitting damage on the target’s internal walls. Leveraging the power of machine learning and the measured target strain, we have developed machine learning surrogates for modeling the discrepancy between simulations and experimental strain data. We then employ these surrogates to guide the refinement of the high-fidelity mercury/helium mixture model to predict a better match of target strain response.

Lin, Lianshan↗
DOE OSTI2025

Coupled Lake‐Atmosphere‐Land Physics Uncertainties in a Great Lakes Regional Climate Model

Abstract This study develops a surrogate‐based method to assess the uncertainty within a convective permitting integrated modeling system of the Great Lakes region, arising from interacting physics parameterizations across the lake, atmosphere, and land surface. Perturbed physics ensembles of the model during the 2018 summer are used to train a neural network surrogate model to predict lake surface temperature (LST) and near‐surface air temperature (T2m). Average physics uncertainties are determined to be 1.5C for LST and T2m over land, and 1.9C for T2m over lake, but these have significant spatiotemporal variations. We find that atmospheric physics parameterizations alone are the dominant sources of uncertainty (45%–53%), while lake and land parameterizations account for 33% and 38% of the uncertainty of LST and T2m over land respectively. Interactions of atmosphere physics parameterizations with those of the land and lake contribute to an additional 13%–17% of the total variance. LST and T2m over the lake are more uncertain in the deeper northern lakes, particularly during the rapid warming phase that occurs in late spring/early summer. The LST uncertainty increases with sensitivity to the lake model's surface wind stress scheme. T2m over land is more uncertain over forested areas in the north, where it is most sensitive to the land surface model, than the more agricultural land in the south, where it is most sensitive to the atmospheric planetary boundary and surface layer scheme. Uncertainty also increases in the southwest during multiday temperature declines with higher sensitivity to the land surface model.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Embedding physics domain knowledge into a Bayesian network enables layer-by-layer process innovation for photovoltaics

Process optimization of photovoltaic devices is a time-intensive, trial-and-error endeavor, which lacks full transparency of the underlying physics and relies on user-imposed constraints that may or may not lead to a global optimum. Herein, we demonstrate that embedding physics domain knowledge into a Bayesian network enables an optimization approach for gallium arsenide (GaAs) solar cells that identifies the root cause(s) of underperformance with layer-by-layer resolution and reveals alternative optimal process windows beyond traditional black-box optimization. Our Bayesian network approach links a key GaAs process variable (growth temperature) to material descriptors (bulk and interface properties, e.g., bulk lifetime, doping, and surface recombination) and device performance parameters (e.g., cell efficiency). For this purpose, we combine a Bayesian inference framework with a neural network surrogate device-physics model that is 100× faster than numerical solvers. With the trained surrogate model and only a small number of experimental samples, our approach reduces significantly the time-consuming intervention and characterization required by the experimentalist. As a demonstration of our method, in only five metal organic chemical vapor depositions, we identify a superior growth temperature profile for the window, bulk, and back surface field layer of a GaAs solar cell, without any secondary measurements, and demonstrate a 6.5% relative AM1.5G efficiency improvement above traditional grid search methods.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Material Model Parameters Optimization in Liquid Mercury Target Dynamics Simulation With Machine Learning Surrogates

A pulsed spallation target is subjected to very short (∼0.7μs) but intense loads (23.3 kJ) from repeated proton pulses, which knock away neutrons from the mercury atoms’ nuclei for a wide range application in physics, engineering, medicine, petroleum exploration, biology, chemistry, etc. The effect of this pulsed loading on the stainless-steel target module which contains the flowing mercury target material is difficult to predict not only due to its short but intense explosive-like physical reaction, but also the nonlinear material behavior of the liquid mercury in the structure. Injecting small helium bubbles in the mercury has been an efficient method of mitigating the pressure wave at high power level stage. However, prediction of the resultant loading on the target is more difficult when helium gas is intentionally injected into the mercury. A 2-phase material model that incorporates the Rayleigh-Plesset (R-P) model is expected to address this complex multi-physics dynamics problem by including the bubble dynamics in the liquid mercury. A parameter sensitivity study was firstly employed to understand their impact on the simulation strains. The investigated parameters included E, μ, γ, σ, n, VFgas, and gas cumulative volume curve control parameters a and b. Verification and validation results from sparse polynomial expansions (SPE) method and directional Gaussian smoothing (DGS) optimization show that the surrogate model had training error of ∼7% and validation error of ∼15%, indicating that machine learning methods and surrogate models can help optimize the uncertain parameters in the complex 2-phase material model. This approach is expected to fill the knowledge gap between unknown liquid-gas mixture material model and measured vessel strain responses.

Lin, Lianshan↗
DOE OSTI2022

Market-Integrated Optimization of Wind-Battery-Hydrogen Hybrids for Peaking Capacity via Storage

As Integrated Energy Systems (IES) combine multiple energy and storage technologies to provide potentially more value and less risk via resource diversification, complementary overbuild, increased flexibility, and revenue-stacking, IES value is dependent on electricity market dispatch and grid interactions should play an important role in IES design and operation. This study hybridizes and retrofits wind and combustion turbine plants to study the impacts of replacing gas generation capacity with wind, battery, PEM electrolysis, hydrogen tanks and hydrogen turbines. The optimized design is co-simulated in a production cost model with different bidding strategies in order to compare performance and highlight the importance of grid-interactions. We analyze the revenue and dispatch changes as well as the price and cost implications of wind-battery-hydrogen IESs.

electrolysis↗
DOE OSTI2023

Optimization of the generator coordinate method with machine-learning techniques for nuclear spectra and neutrinoless double- β decay: Ridge regression for nuclei with axial deformation

The generator coordinate method (GCM) is an important tool of choice for modeling large-amplitude collective motion in atomic nuclei. The computational complexity of the GCM increases rapidly with the number of collective coordinates. It imposes a strong restriction on the applicability of the method. In this work, we propose a subspace-reduction algorithm that employs optimal statistical ML models as surrogates for exact quantum-number projection calculations for norm and Hamiltonian kernels. The model space of the original GCM is reduced to a subspace relevant for nuclear low energy spectra and the NME of ground state to ground state 0νββ decay based on the orthogonality condition (OC) and the energy-transition-orthogonality procedure (ENTROP), respectively. For simplicity, the polynomial ridge regression (RR) algorithm is used to learn the norm and Hamiltonian kernels of axially deformed configurations. The efficiency and accuracy of this algorithm are illustrated for 76 Ge and 76 Se by comparing results obtained using the optimal RR models to direct GCM calculations. The low-lying energy spectra of 76 Ge and 76 Se, as well as the 0νββ-decay NME between their ground states, are computed. Furthermore, the results show that the performance of the GCM+OC/ENTROP+RR is more robust than that of the GCM+RR alone, and the former can reproduce the results of the original GCM calculation accurately with a significantly reduced computational cost.

59 ≤ A ≤ 89↗