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DOE OSTI2021

Modeling and simulation of vascular tumors embedded in evolving capillary networks

Here in this work, we present a coupled 3D–1D model of solid tumor growth within a dynamically changing vascular network to facilitate realistic simulations of angiogenesis. Additionally, the model includes erosion of the extracellular matrix, interstitial flow, and coupled flow in blood vessels and tissue. We employ continuum mixture theory with stochastic Cahn–Hilliard type phase-field models of tumor growth. The interstitial flow is governed by a mesoscale version of Darcy’s law. The flow in the blood vessels is controlled by Poiseuille flow, and Starling’s law is applied to model the mass transfer in and out of blood vessels. The evolution of the network of blood vessels is orchestrated by the concentration of the tumor angiogenesis factors (TAFs); blood vessels grow towards the increasing TAFs concentrations. This process is not deterministic, allowing random growth of blood vessels and, therefore, due to the coupling of nutrients in tissue and vessels, makes the growth of tumors stochastic. We demonstrate the performance of the model by applying it to a variety of scenarios. Numerical experiments illustrate the flexibility of the model and its ability to generate satellite tumors. Simulations of the effects of angiogenesis on tumor growth are presented as well as sample-independent features of cancer.

3D–1D coupled blood flow models↗

DOE OSTI2023

Parameter estimation with maximal updated densities

A recently developed measure-theoretic framework solves a stochastic inverse problem (SIP) for models where uncertainties in model output data are predominantly due to aleatoric (i.e., irreducible) uncertainties in model inputs (i.e., parameters). The subsequent inferential target is a distribution on parameters. Another type of inverse problem is to quantify uncertainties in estimates of “true” parameter values under the assumption that such uncertainties should be reduced as more data are incorporated into the problem, i.e., the uncertainty is considered epistemic. A major contribution of this work is the formulation and solution of such a parameter identification problem (PIP) within the measure-theoretic framework developed for the SIP. The approach is novel in that it utilizes a solution to a stochastic forward problem (SFP) to update an initial density only in the parameter directions informed by the model output data. In other words, this method performs “selective regularization” only in the parameter directions not informed by data. Further, the solution is defined by a maximal updated density (MUD) point where the updated density defines the measure-theoretic solution to the PIP. Another significant contribution of this work is the full theory of existence and uniqueness of MUD points for linear maps with Gaussian distributions. Data-constructed Quantity of Interest (QoI) maps are also presented and analyzed for solving the PIP within this measure-theoretic framework as a means of reducing uncertainties in the MUD estimate. We conclude with a demonstration of the general applicability of the method on two problems involving either spatial or temporal data for estimating uncertain model parameters. The first problem utilizes spatial data from a stationary partial differential equation to produce a MUD estimate of an uncertain boundary condition. The second problem utilizes temporal data obtained from the state-of-the-art ADvanced CIRCulation (ADCIRC) model to obtain a MUD estimate of uncertain wind drag coefficients for a simulated extreme weather event near the Shinnecock Inlet located in the Outer Barrier of Long Island, NY, USA.

42 ENGINEERING↗

NASA NTRS1976

A non-gaussian model of continuous atmospheric turbulence for use in aircraft design

A non-Gaussian model of atmospheric turbulence is presented and analyzed. The model is restricted to the regions of the atmosphere where the turbulence is steady or continuous, and the assumptions of homogeneity and stationarity are justified. Also spatial distribution of turbulence is neglected, so the model consists of three independent, stationary stochastic processes which represent the vertical, lateral, and longitudinal gust components. The non-Gaussian and Gaussian models are compared with experimental data, and it is shown that the Gaussian model underestimates the number of high velocity gusts which occur in the atmosphere, while the non-Gaussian model can be adjusted to match the observed high velocity gusts more satisfactorily. Application of the proposed model to aircraft response is investigated, with particular attention to the response power spectral density, the probability distribution, and the level crossing frequency. A numerical example is presented which illustrates the application of the non-Gaussian model to the study of an aircraft autopilot system. Listings and sample results of a number of computer programs used in working with the model are included.

Reeves, P. M.↗

DOE OSTI2024

Multistage Stochastic optimization for mid-term integrated generation and maintenance scheduling of cascaded hydroelectric system with renewable energy uncertainty

The uncertainties resulting from the escalating penetration of renewable energy resources pose severe challenges to the efficient operation of modern power systems. Hydroelectricity is characterized by its flexibility, controllability, and reliability, and thus becomes one of the most ideal energy resources to hedge against such uncertainties. This paper studies the mid-term integrated generation and maintenance scheduling of a cascaded hydroelectric system (CHS) consisting of multiple cascaded reservoirs and hydroelectric units. To precisely describe the mid-term water regulation policies, the hydraulic coupling relationship and water-energy nexus of CHS are incorporated into the proposed optimization model. The uncertainties of natural water inflow and the power outputs of wind/solar energy generation are taken into consideration and captured via a stochastic process modeled by a scenario tree. A multistage stochastic optimization (MSO) approach is developed to coordinate the complementary operations of multiple energy resources, by optimizing the mid-term water resource management, generation scheduling, and maintenance scheduling of CHS. The proposed MSO model is formulated as a large-scale mixed-integer linear program that presents significant computational intractability. To address this issue, a tailored Benders decomposition algorithm is developed. Two real-world case studies are conducted to demonstrate the capability and characteristics of the proposed model and algorithm. The computational results show that the proposed MSO model can exploit the flexibility of hydroelectricity to efficiently respond to variable wind and solar power, and reserve water resources for the generation in peak months to reduce the consumption of fossil fuel. Furthermore, the proposed solution approach also exhibits promising computational efficiency when handling large-scale models.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

NASA NTRS1984

The spatial structure of terrain - A process signal in satellite digital images

Pattern recognition procedures applied to Landsat imagery carry an implicit assumption that the digital data are independently distributed. That assumption is incorrect over virtually any terrain. Deviations from independence occur because slopes follow a systematic pattern of variation arising from the slope-forming processes. That pattern can be identified using the stochastic process methodology of Box and Jenkins.Angles of adjacent slopes are autocorrelated and the bidirectional reflectance function transfers these systematic slope changes to the sensor. Imagery becomes autocorrelated through this transfer. Autocorrelation in the imagery can be removed through direct calculation from a digital elevation model or by use of stochastic process methodology. The latter has the advantage that the residuals are white noise; and it is applicable in any area, even where a D.E.M. is unavailable. The stochastic process signal can be used to study terrain processes.

Craig, R. G.↗

NASA NTRS1993

Turbulence modeling for non-equilibrium flows

Two projects are reported. The first is the development and testing of an eddy viscosity transport model. This project also is a starting point for our work on developing computational tools for solving turbulence models in complex geometries. The second project is a stochastic analysis of the realizability of Reynolds stress transport models.

Durbin, Paul A.↗

NASA NTRS2015

NASA Space Radiation Risk Project: Overview and Recent Results

The NASA Space Radiation Risk project is responsible for integrating new experimental and computational results into models to predict risk of cancer and acute radiation syndrome (ARS) for use in mission planning and systems design, as well as current space operations. The project has several parallel efforts focused on proving NASA's radiation risk projection capability in both the near and long term. This presentation will give an overview, with select results from these efforts including the following topics: verification, validation, and streamlining the transition of models to use in decision making; relative biological effectiveness and dose rate effect estimation using a combination of stochastic track structure simulations, DNA damage model calculations and experimental data; ARS model improvements; pathway analysis from gene expression data sets; solar particle event probabilistic exposure calculation including correlated uncertainties for use in design optimization.

Blattnig, Steve R.↗

NASA NTRS2017

Role of Forcing Uncertainty and Background Model Error Characterization in Snow Data Assimilation

Accurate specification of the model error covariances in data assimilation systems is a challenging issue. Ensemble land data assimilation methods rely on stochastic perturbations of input forcing and model prognostic fields for developing representations of input model error covariances. This article examines the limitations of using a single forcing dataset for specifying forcing uncertainty inputs for assimilating snow depth retrievals. Using an idealized data assimilation experiment, the article demonstrates that the use of hybrid forcing input strategies (either through the use of an ensemble of forcing products or through the added use of the forcing climatology) provide a better characterization of the background model error, which leads to improved data assimilation results, especially during the snow accumulation and melt-time periods. The use of hybrid forcing ensembles is then employed for assimilating snow depth retrievals from the AMSR2 (Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer 2) instrument over two domains in the continental USA with different snow evolution characteristics. Over a region near the Great Lakes, where the snow evolution tends to be ephemeral, the use of hybrid forcing ensembles provides significant improvements relative to the use of a single forcing dataset. Over the Colorado headwaters characterized by large snow accumulation, the impact of using the forcing ensemble is less prominent and is largely limited to the snow transition time periods. The results of the article demonstrate that improving the background model error through the use of a forcing ensemble enables the assimilation system to better incorporate the observational information.

assimilation↗

NASA NTRS1993

Stochastic damage evolution in textile laminates

A probabilistic model utilizing random material characteristics to predict damage evolution in textile laminates is presented. Model is based on a division of each ply into two sublaminas consisting of cells. The probability of cell failure is calculated using stochastic function theory and maximal strain failure criterion. Three modes of failure, i.e. fiber breakage, matrix failure in transverse direction, as well as matrix or interface shear cracking, are taken into account. Computed failure probabilities are utilized in reducing cell stiffness based on the mesovolume concept. A numerical algorithm is developed predicting the damage evolution and deformation history of textile laminates. Effect of scatter of fiber orientation on cell properties is discussed. Weave influence on damage accumulation is illustrated with the help of an example of a Kevlar/epoxy laminate.

Dzenis, Yuris A.↗

NASA NTRS1982

Computational modeling for the study of multispectral sensor systems and concepts

A computational model of the deterministic and stochastic processes involved in remote sensing is being developed as a tool for studying multispectral sensor systems and concepts. The goal is to improve the efficiency of sensor systems for routine worldwide monitoring of earth resources and the environment. Preliminary computational results are presented for simple models of the natural variability of atmospheric radiative transfer and surface reflectance. These results illustrate the dependence of classification accuracy on the selection of sensor spectral channels and data processing algorithms.

Huck, F. O.↗

DOE OSTI2020

Stochastic DC optimal power flow with reserve saturation

We propose an optimization framework for stochastic optimal power flow with uncertain loads and renewable generator capacity. Our model follows previous work in assuming that generator outputs respond to load imbalances according to an affine control policy, but introduces a model of saturation of generator reserves by assuming that when a generator’s target level hits its limit, it abandons the affine policy and produces at that limit. This is a particularly interesting feature in models where wind power plants, which have uncertain upper generation limits, are scheduled to provide reserves to balance load fluctuations. Here, the resulting model is a nonsmooth nonconvex two-stage stochastic program, and we use a stochastic approximation method to find stationary solutions to a smooth approximation. Computational results on 6-bus and 118-bus test instances demonstrate that by considering the effects of saturation, our model can yield solutions with lower expected generation costs (at the same target line violation probability level) than those obtained from a model that enforces the affine policy to stay within generator limits with high probability.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

NASA NTRS1993

Estimation of Kalman filter gain from output residuals

This paper presents a procedure to estimate the Kalman filter gain from input-output measurement data with a given system model. The system model can be a finite element model or an experimental model from any identification method. The procedure consists of three basic steps. First, the stochastic portion related to the residuals of the response is computed. Second, the coefficients of a linear difference model for the stochastic portion are estimated by a least-squares solution that minimizes the filter residual. Third, the Kalman filter gain is computed from these model coefficients. Experimental results are presented to illustrate the usefulness of the developed procedure.

Juang, Jer-Nan↗

NASA NTRS1984

A simulation of remote sensor systems and data processing algorithms for spectral feature classification

A computational model of the deterministic and stochastic processes involved in multispectral remote sensing was designed to evaluate the performance of sensor systems and data processing algorithms for spectral feature classification. Accuracy in distinguishing between categories of surfaces or between specific types is developed as a means to compare sensor systems and data processing algorithms. The model allows studies to be made of the effects of variability of the atmosphere and of surface reflectance, as well as the effects of channel selection and sensor noise. Examples of these effects are shown.

Arduini, R. F.↗

DOE OSTI2023

Stochastic generation of electrolyzer anode catalyst layers

Here, we introduce a stochastic methodology to reproduce the complex pore structure observed in commercial iridium catalyst layers. This method preserves the α pore (pores smaller than 250 nm) and β pore (pores greater than or equal to 250 nm) regions of the catalyst layer. The morphology of the generated materials was validated by comparing the pore size distributions of generated materials against those obtained from commercial materials imaged using x-ray nano computed tomography. We further demonstrate that the pore size distributions of the generated materials are statistically indistinguishable from the imaged catalyst layers, indicating that the stochastic methodology is capable of accurately reproducing catalyst layer morphology. Pore network modelling was conducted on the generated catalyst materials to simulate single-phase permeability, electrical conductivity, and ionic conductivity, and these properties were found to be within experimentally measured ranges for electrolyzer catalyst layers. Additionally, simulations were performed on the generated materials with varying ionomer and iridium catalyst loadings. As the ionomer loading is added, proton conductivity increases exponentially, which demonstrates the importance of optimizing ionomer loading, considering that these effects will be exacerbated in the hydration and temperature conditions of operating electrolyzers. The stochastic material generation method presented in this work is a powerful tool for the development of novel low loading catalyst layers, where the effect of various structural parameters on electrolyzer performance characteristics can be explored.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

NASA NTRS2003

Integration of Online Parameter Identification and Neural Network for In-Flight Adaptive Control

An indirect adaptive system has been constructed for robust control of an aircraft with uncertain aerodynamic characteristics. This system consists of a multilayer perceptron pre-trained neural network, online stability and control derivative identification, a dynamic cell structure online learning neural network, and a model following control system based on the stochastic optimal feedforward and feedback technique. The pre-trained neural network and model following control system have been flight-tested, but the online parameter identification and online learning neural network are new additions used for in-flight adaptation of the control system model. A description of the modification and integration of these two stand-alone software packages into the complete system in preparation for initial flight tests is presented. Open-loop results using both simulation and flight data, as well as closed-loop performance of the complete system in a nonlinear, six-degree-of-freedom, flight validated simulation, are analyzed. Results show that this online learning system, in contrast to the nonlearning system, has the ability to adapt to changes in aerodynamic characteristics in a real-time, closed-loop, piloted simulation, resulting in improved flying qualities.

Hageman, Jacob↗

NASA NTRS2003

Integration of Online Parameter Identification and Neural Network for In-Flight Adaptive Control

Hageman, Jacob J.↗

NASA NTRS1991

A statistical rain attenuation prediction model with application to the advanced communication technology satellite project. 3: A stochastic rain fade control algorithm for satellite link power via non linear Markow filtering theory

The dynamic and composite nature of propagation impairments that are incurred on Earth-space communications links at frequencies in and above 30/20 GHz Ka band, i.e., rain attenuation, cloud and/or clear air scintillation, etc., combined with the need to counter such degradations after the small link margins have been exceeded, necessitate the use of dynamic statistical identification and prediction processing of the fading signal in order to optimally estimate and predict the levels of each of the deleterious attenuation components. Such requirements are being met in NASA's Advanced Communications Technology Satellite (ACTS) Project by the implementation of optimal processing schemes derived through the use of the Rain Attenuation Prediction Model and nonlinear Markov filtering theory.

Manning, Robert M.↗

DOE OSTI2024

Sensitivity analysis, surrogate modeling, and optimization of pebble-bed reactors considering normal and accident conditions

This research provides a valuable tool that streamlines the optimization process while significantly increasing its accuracy. This study creates a robust framework for reactor design optimization by incorporating comprehensive modeling using the Comprehensive Reactor Analysis Bundle, or BlueCRAB, within the Multiphysics Object-Oriented Simulation Environment (MOOSE). BlueCRAB is the United States Nuclear Regulatory Commission's code suite for non-light water reactor analysis and includes the Griffin, Pronghorn, and Bison applications. This not only improves the efficiency of the optimization process but also enhances the reliability of the results. Such a tool is essential for advancing the state-of-the-art in pebble-bed reactor technology and is critical for achieving the goals of Generation IV reactors, which aim for safe, sustainable, and economically viable nuclear energy solutions. This work presents and applies this workflow on pebble-bed reactors while considering both normal and off-normal conditions. A representative gas-cooled pebble-bed reactor at equilibrium core conditions serves as the nominal design specification for normal operation and is based on previous research. The depressurized loss-of-forced-cooling accident is deployed for off-normal conditions in this work. After defining design-related parameters and quantities of interest regarding reactor safety and performance, this multiphysics model is sampled using the MOOSE stochastic tools module. The result is a comprehensive dataset of configurations, enabling sensitivity analysis and the generation of surrogate models. Subsequently, the dataset and surrogate models are employed in two optimization studies aimed at maximizing fuel utilization and economic profit while adhering to safety and operational constraints. Performing the optimization process with fuel utilization as the metric leads to an improvement of approximately 10%, compared to engineering-judgment-based nominal conditions. The optimization on economic profit leads to an estimated increase of ~300 million USD over the lifetime of the reactor.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗