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At least 1,009 records · Page 56

Statistical Aspects of Intense Hurricanes in the Atlantic Basin during the Past 49 Hurricane Seasons (1950-1998)

Statistical aspects of intense hurricanes (those of category 3 or higher) in the Atlantic basin for the interval of 1950-1998 are investigated with respect to the ENSC, cycle and the postulated 'more versus less' activity modes for intense hurricane activity. This is accomplished in order to evaluate the statistical basis for these specific groupings and to presage a forecast for the number of expected intense hurricanes during the forthcoming 1999 hurricane season. Statistically speaking, because the 1998-1999 La Nina (onset presumed to be September 1998) should persist longer than about a year - the average duration for La Nina events based on the 10 previously occurring La Nina, each having a duration in the range of 7-22 months - it seems likely that the 1999 season will be classified as a 'non-El Nino-related' (NENR) season. If true, then, greater than or equal to 2 intense hurricanes are to be expected. Based on Poisson statistics, the probability of greater than or equal to 2 events is about 77% when the season is classified as NENR, and it is about 87% when the season is classified as NENR and the 'more active' phase is in fashion; likewise, the probability of greater than or equal to 4 events is about 31% and 48%, respectively, for the two cases. Therefore, an above average rate (possibly, as many as 4 +/- 1, or higher) of intense hurricanes forming in the Atlantic basin seems a very distinct possibility during the 1999 season.

Wilson, Robert M.↗

Inferred Sea Level Prediction in the NASA GMAO Seasonal Forecasting System

Reliable predictions of sea level anomalies on seasonal timescales with lead times of 1 to 9 months may have relevance to stakeholders – for example, in the advance deployment of resources for coastal flood mitigation. Routine prediction and analysis may also highlight physical processes associated with sea level change and modeling capabilities on seasonal and other timescales. These forecasts may represent interannual changes in the seasonal slope of the ocean surface, teleconnection effects such as the El Niño/Southern Oscillation phenomenon, and variations in seasonal hydrology including precipitation and coastal runoff. Coupled atmosphere/ocean models are routinely used in the seasonal prediction of temperature anomalies, precipitation anomalies, sea ice cover, and climate indices such as the Niño3.4 predictions under the North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) protocol. Within the limits of their configuration, these complex Earth-system models have a potential for depicting regional changes in oceanic column properties, including the sea surface height. Seasonal prediction models generally have no representation of long-term mass contributions from melting land ice, or changes in vertical land motion; their output may be more specifically characterized as predictions of the ocean dynamic sea level. In practice however, the sea surface height prognostic variable is substantially compromised by the forecast model response to initial conditions. Imbalances between the initial, observed hydrologic cycle and the forecast model state produce abrupt adjustments in the model sea surface height. As a result, most seasonal prediction systems employ a constraint on the globally-averaged sea surface height that is applied at each time step. This essentially renders the prognostic sea surface height variable as unserviceable. Several approaches have previously been used to retrieve sea level information from seasonal forecasts beyond the use of the sea surface height variable. Here, we extend a method of relating other prognostic values, including ocean circulation and climate indices, to observed sea level variations. We use the merged altimetry record of the NASA MEaSUREs Gridded Sea Surface Height Anomalies data set and monthly revised local reference gauge observations from the National Oceanography Centre Permanent Service for Mean Sea Level (PSMSL) to evaluate derived prognostic variables from the NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office subseasonal-to-seasonal system version 2.1 (GMAO S2S v2.1). We focus on results for the midlatitudes with particular emphasis on US gauge locations. As shown in previous studies, prognostic ENSO-related indices in boreal winter are well correlated with gauge observations for the US west coast, but also for other locations in the southeastern US. Other forecast climate indices such as the North Atlantic Oscillation have relations to sea level that are limited both seasonally and spatially. As expected, surface atmospheric pressure (e.g., inverse barometer effect) is found to be particularly well correlated with observed sea level. We provide a characterization of forecast skill for seasonal sea level with this method.

Richard I Cullather↗

Cryptic cycling by electroactive bacterioplankton in Trout Bog Lake

The potential for extracellular electron transfer (EET) is a prevailing genomic feature of humic lake bacterioplankton. However, there has been little evidence for the substantial ecological contribution predicted by genetics. We hypothesized that anoxygenic phototrophic electrotrophs and accompanying heterotrophic electrogens cycle dissolved organic matter (DOM) between oxidized and reduced states. We predicted that such bacterioplankton would exhibit diel-scale oscillations due to the light dependency of photosynthesis. Using Trout Bog Lake in Wisconsin, USA, as our model ecosystem, we profiled the water column with depth-discrete metagenomic, physiochemical, and electrochemical analyses. We observed variation in oxidation reduction potential (ORP) in response to sunlight, initiating at depths populated by anoxygenic phototrophs with EET genes. We developed an automated buoy to measure electric current flow between many pairs of electrodes simultaneously, observing correlation in electron consumption to sunlight. Our results, combined with published metatranscriptomic analysis, indicate the occurrence of electron cycling between phototrophic oxidation (electrotrophic metabolism) by Chlorobium and anaerobic respiration (electrogenic metabolism) by Geothrix, involving DOM. We also repeatedly observed gradual seasonal increases in hypolimnion ORP throughout summer. These diel and seasonal patterns imply that electroactive DOM mediates the ecology of electroactive bacteria in lakes, controlling humic lake methane emissions.IMPORTANCEWe investigated the physical, chemical, and redox characteristics of a bog lake and electrodes hung therein to test the hypothesis that dissolved organic matter is being cycled between oxidized and reduced states by electroactive bacterioplankton powered by phototrophy. To do so, we performed field-based analyses on multiple timescales using both established and novel instrumentation. We paired these analyses with recently developed bioinformatics pipelines for metagenomics data to investigate genes that enable electroactive metabolism and accompanying metabolisms. Our results are consistent with our hypothesis and yet upend some of our other expectations. Our findings have implications for understanding greenhouse gas emissions from lakes, including electroactivity as an integral part of lake metabolism throughout more of the anoxic parts of lakes and for a longer portion of the summer than expected. Our results also give a sense of what electroactivity occurs at given depths and provide a strong basis for future studies.

carbon emissions↗

Learning the Rhythm of the Seasons in the Face of Global Change: Phenological Research in the 21st Century

Phenology is the study of recurring life-cycle events, of which classic examples include flowering by plants as well as animal migration. Phenological responses are increasingly relevant for addressing applied environmental issues. Yet, challenges remain with respect to spanning scales of observation, integrating observations across taxa, and modeling phenological sequences to enable ecological forecasts in light of future climate change. Recent advances that are helping to address these challenges include refined landscape-scale phenology estimates from satellite data, advanced instrument-based approaches for field measurements, and new cyber-infrastructure for archiving and distribution of products. These advances are aiding in diverse areas including modeling land-surface exchange, evaluating climate-phenology relationships, and aiding land management decisions.

Morisette, Jeffrey T.↗

Ethanol as a Liquid Organic Hydrogen Carrier for Seasonal Microgrid Application: Catalysis, Theory, and Engineering Feasibility

Here, we describe the benefits and challenges of a green approach to seasonal energy storage using ethanol as a liquid organic hydrogen carrier (LOHC). We evaluate the cycling efficiency of hydrogen release from ethanol (EtOH) to form ethyl acetate (EtOAc) as the spent LOHC and the subsequent regeneration of EtOH from EtOAc catalyzed by a single molecular catalyst, Ru-MACHO, at a moderate pressure of H 2 , mild reaction temperature, and high selectivity. From experimental and computational studies, we were able to minimize catalyst deactivation, regenerate the active catalyst post reactions, and establish the energy profile of the deactivation pathway relative to the on-cycle pathway catalyzed by Ru-MACHO. Based upon these findings, we performed a reactor design analysis to determine the footprint of an EtOH-based storage system to provide 85 MWh of energy by storing 5 metric tons (MT) of H 2 . We conclude that the heating and cooling required to maintain H 2 partial pressure present a significant engineering challenge for widespread deployment of this system.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Microalgae Conversion to Biofuels and Biochemical via Sequential Hydrothermal Liquefaction (SEQHTL) and Bioprocessing: 2020 State of Technology

A preliminary techno-economic analysis (TEA) was developed for the fiscal year 2020 state of technology (SOT) assessment to evaluate the benefits and risks for a large-scale microalga hydrothermal liquefaction (HTL) system based on most recent testing results. The focus of the study is directed toward the conversion system, which consists of five processes: two-stage sequential HTL (SEQHTL), biocrude upgrading to final fuels, bioprocessing for co-product generation, hydrogen generation, and steam cycle. In this system, algae biomass with corn stover supplement during the lower algae productivity seasons (winter, fall, and spring) to match the maximum algae seasonal production rate in summer is employed to maintain a constant plant capacity in all the seasons. Algae only (summer season) or algae/corn stover blended feedstock (other seasons) are sent to a two-stage SEQHTL process. In stage I, the carbohydrates in the feedstock are extracted and separated from the residual solid. The residual solid from stage I is further converted to biocrude in the SEQHTL stage II step. The biocrude is upgraded to final fuel products in an upgrading process. The extract stream from HTL stage I is sent to the bioprocessing section for co-product generation via fermentation of carbohydrate. Lactic acid (LA) is assumed to be the co-product based on current bioprocessing testing results.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Comparison of aircraft measurements during GoAmazon2014/5 and ACRIDICON-CHUVA

The indirect effect of atmospheric aerosol particles on the Earth's radiation balance remains one of the most uncertain components affecting climate change throughout the industrial period. The large uncertainty is partly due to the incomplete understanding of aerosol–cloud interactions. One objective of the GoAmazon2014/5 and the ACRIDICON (Aerosol, Cloud, Precipitation, and Radiation Interactions and Dynamics of Convective Cloud Systems)-CHUVA (Cloud Processes of the Main Precipitation Systems in Brazil) projects was to understand the influence of emissions from the tropical megacity of Manaus (Brazil) on the surrounding atmospheric environment of the rainforest and to investigate its role in the life cycle of convective clouds. During one of the intensive observation periods (IOPs) in the dry season from 1 September to 10 October 2014, comprehensive measurements of trace gases and aerosol properties were carried out at several ground sites. In a coordinated way, the advanced suites of sophisticated in situ instruments were deployed aboard both the US Department of Energy Gulfstream-1 (G1) aircraft and the German High Altitude and Long-Range Research Aircraft (HALO) during three coordinated flights on 9 and 21 September and 1 October. Here, we report on the comparison of measurements collected by the two aircraft during these three flights. Such comparisons are challenging but essential for assessing the data quality from the individual platforms and quantifying their uncertainty sources. Similar instruments mounted on the G1 and HALO collected vertical profile measurements of aerosol particle number concentrations and size distribution, cloud condensation nuclei concentrations, ozone and carbon monoxide mixing ratios, cloud droplet size distributions, and downward solar irradiance. We find that the above measurements from the two aircraft agreed within the measurement uncertainties. The relative fraction of the aerosol chemical composition measured by instruments on HALO agreed with the corresponding G1 data, although the total mass loadings only have a good agreement at high altitudes. Furthermore, possible causes of the discrepancies between measurements on the G1 and HALO are examined in this paper. Based on these results, criteria for meaningful aircraft measurement comparisons are discussed.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

Usefulness of LANDSAT data for monitoring plant development and range conditions in California's annual grassland

A network of sampling sites throughout the annual grassland region of California was established to correlate plant growth stages and forage production to climatic and other environmental factors. Plant growth and range conditions were further related to geographic location and seasonal variations. A sequence of LANDSAT data was obtained covering critical periods in the growth cycle. This was analyzed by both photointerpretation and computer aided techniques. Image characteristics and spectral reflectance data were then related to forage production, range condition, range site and changing growth conditions. It was determined that repeat sequences with LANDSAT color composite images do provide a means for monitoring changes in range condition. Spectral radiance data obtained from magnetic tape can be used to determine quantitatively the critical stages in the forage growth cycle. A computer ratioing technique provided a sensitive indicator of changes in growth stages and an indication of the relative differences in forage production between range sites.

Carneggie, D. M.↗

Usefulness of LANDSAT data for monitoring plant development and range conditions in California's annual grassland

A network of sampling sites throughout the annual grassland region was established to correlate plant growth in stages and forage production to climatic and other environmental factors. Plant growth and range conditions were further related to geographic location and seasonal variations. A sequence of LANDSAT data was obtained covering critical periods in the growth cycle. Data were analyzed by both photointerpretation and computer aided techniques. Image characteristics and spectral reflectance data were then related to forage production, range condition, range site, and changing growth conditions.

Carneggie, D. M.↗

Polar sediment accumulation: Role of surface winds at the two poles

The accumulation of the large deposits of volatile and nonvolatile sediments at both Martian poles has occurred through periods of likely climate change. Most data on wind directions near the Martian poles and seasonal activity relate to a very short period of time, at one point in climate cycles. It is still uncertain what the net budgets to the poles are and how this budget (if known) would fit into longer climate/sediment cycles. Pending further data we examined the full suite of Viking high-resolution, high-latitude images for wind markers of all sizes and types. These probably represent timescales of formation from days to several tens of thousands of years. The goal is to estimate the effectiveness, and possible drivers, of wind systems that bring materials near the surface to the regions of polar sediments and that also remove materials from the polar areas.

Thomas, P. C.↗

Low-Latitude Ethane Rain on Titan

Cassini ISS observed multiple widespread changes in surface brightness in Titan's equatorial regions over the past three years. These brightness variations are attributed to rainfall from cloud systems that appear to form seasonally. Determining the composition of this rainfall is an important step in understanding the "methanological" cycle on Titan. I use data from Cassini VIMS to complete a spectroscopic investigation of multiple rain-wetted areas. I compute "before-and-after" spectral ratios of any areas that show either deposition or evaporation of rain. By comparing these spectral ratios to a model of liquid ethane, I find that the rain is most likely composed of liquid ethane. The spectrum of liquid ethane contains multiple absorption features that fall within the 2-micron and 5-micron spectral windows in Titan's atmosphere. I show that these features are visible in the spectra taken of Titan's surface and that they are characteristically different than those in the spectrum of liquid methane. Furthermore, just as ISS saw the surface brightness reverting to its original state after a period of time, I show that VIMS observations of later flybys show the surface composition in different stages of returning to its initial form.

Cassini↗

The Role of Low-Level, Terrain-Induced Jets in Rainfall Variability in Tigris Euphrates Headwaters

Rainfall variability in the Tigris Euphrates headwaters is a result of interaction between topography and meteorological features at a range of spatial scales. Here, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model, driven by the NCEP-DOE AMIP-II reanalysis (R-2), has been implemented to better understand these interactions. Simulations were performed over a domain covering most of the Middle East. The extended simulation period (1983 - 2013) enables us to study seasonality, interannual variability, spatial variability, and extreme events of rainfall. Results showed that the annual cycle of precipitation produced by WRF agrees much more closely with observations than does R-2. This was particularly evident during the transition months of April and October, which were further examined to study the underlying physical mechanisms. In both months, WRF improves representation of interannual variability relative to R-2, with a substantially larger benefit in April. This improvement results primarily from WRFs ability to resolve two low-level, terrain-induced flows in the region that are either absent or weak in R-2: one parallel to the western edge of the Zagros Mountains, and one along the east Turkish highlands. The first shows a complete reversal in its direction during wet and dry days, when flowing southeasterly it transports moisture from the Persian Gulf to the region, and when flowing northwesterly it blocks moisture and transports it away from the region. The second is more directly related to synoptic-scale systems and carries moist, warm air from the Mediterranean and Red Seas toward the region. The combined contribution of these flows explains about 50 of interannual variability in both WRF and observations for April and October precipitation.

rainfall variability↗

Midwest Water Resources II: Evaluating Evapotranspiration with NASA Earth Observations and In Situ Observations to Understand Water Balance in Midwest Agriculture

Seasonal water variability in the midwestern United States extensively affects the agricultural community, as it impacts irrigation schedules, growing seasons, and overall ecosystem function. Evapotranspiration (ET) is a critical climatic variable in the water cycle and is used to evaluate spatiotemporal trends in drought and flood conditions. The NASA DEVELOP team partnered with the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) Midwest Climate Hub, the Minnesota Department of Agriculture, the Illinois State Water Survey, and Michigan State University to compare remotely sensed ET products with in situ observations from January 2001 through December 2020. Remotely sensed actual ET (aET) data were sourced from NASA’s Terra Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), and reference ET (refET) data were derived from the Gridded Surface Meteorological (gridMET) dataset. For in situ comparison, aET data were downloaded from the AmeriFlux database while refET data were collected from the Illinois Climate Network and Michigan State University’s Enviro-weather database. For a holistic assessment of ET, this project generated comparisons between remotely sensed and in situ observations, calculated descriptive statistics for validation between refET datasets, and spatially produced statistical validation maps regarding in situ sites. The temporal and spatial gaps of AmeriFlux data limited aET analysis. This comparative assessment of ET products across the Midwest can be used by project partners to assess regional water trends and guide future land management decisions.

Addison Pletcher↗

Improved Understanding of Coupled Water and Carbon Cycle Processes through Machine Learning Approaches

Focal Area(s): This white paper addresses how explainable machine learning (ML) algorithms can improve insights gained from complex data (Focal Area 3). We will also address how ML approaches related to sensor compression and low energy AI hardware can be used for efficient data acquisition (Focal Area 1). Science Challenge: We will focus on the coupled water cycle and carbon cycle processes in terrestrial ecosystems and terrestrial-aquatic interfaces. Thus, our approaches will be centered around several data-model integration challenges indicated in EESD strategic plans for two science focus areas: Terrestrial Ecosystem Science and Hydrobiogeochemistry. We can use AI to correct systematic model errors due to biases in either data or model structure/processes. Error patterns in model predictions usually vary by region, model, season etc. But there are systematic patterns in them. e.g., soil moisture tends to be overestimated in the arid western continental United States underestimated in wetter eastern USA; some land surface models tend to underestimate moisture in wet seasons and overestimate in dry seasons. Moreover, the consequences of extreme events (e.g., drought, extreme flooding, storm surges associated with tropical storms, hurricanes) on carbon cycle processes are not well represented in ecosystem and Earth system models. Redox-sensitive processes (e.g., rapid oxidation/reduction of iron and other redox-sensitive elements in soil microsites subjected to fluctuated hydrology) in terrestrial-aquatic interfaces further challenge model predictions of hot-spots (and hot-moments) due to poor understanding of underlying mechanisms. Thus, AI/ML approaches can be used to learn patterns in the data and model errors and use them to build model equations and correct process-based model errors.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

The Global Drivers of Photosynthesis and Light Use Efficiency Seasonality: A Granger Frequency Causality Analysis

Photosynthesis and light use efficiency (LUE) are major factors in the evolution of the continental carbon cycle due to their contribution to gross primary production (GPP). However, while the drivers of photosynthesis and LUE on a plant or canopy scale can often be identified, significant uncertainties exist when modeling these on a global scale. This is due to sparse observations in regions such as the tropics and the lack of a direct global observation dataset. Although others have attempted to address this issue using correlations (Beer, 2010) or calculating GPP from vegetation indices (Running, 2004), in this study we take a new approach. We combine the statistical method of Granger frequency causality and partial Granger frequency causality with remote sensing data products (including sun-induced fluorescence used as a proxy for GPP) to determine the main environmental drivers of GPP across the globe.

photosynthesis↗

Seasonal Controls of CO 2 and CH 4 Dynamics in a Temporarily Flooded Subtropical Wetland

Subtropical and tropical wetlands play a prominent role in the global carbon (C) cycle; yet factors that influence their C fluxes remain uncertain. We collected measurements from a temporarily flooded subtropical wetland over 3 years to investigate environmental drivers impacting CO 2 and CH 4 fluxes. The wetland was a sink of CO 2 (-469 to -380 g C-CO 2 · m -2 · year -1 ) and a source of CH 4 (25.1 to 32.1 g C-CH 4 · m -2 · year -1 ) to the atmosphere. Dry season CH 4 emissions represented 41 to 49% of the annual budget, reflecting the importance of continuous CH 4 flux measurements. Gross primary productivity (GPP) increased with temperature and radiation, and the influence of VPD on GPP varied with soil inundation. Higher water tables decreased Reco and increased GPP, and a higher GPP in turn lead to enhanced R eco likely through enhancements of GPP on autotrophic respiration. This suggests that the impact of the water table on R eco depends on the cancelling effects of hydrology and GPP. Emissions of CH 4 increased with soil temperature, water table, and GPP until soils were inundated at which point temperature and GPP became the main drivers. Water table and temperature influenced GPP and CH 4 fluxes, and increases in GPP directly enhanced CH 4 emissions. In addition to impacting C fluxes directly through water table depth, hydrology also determined the hierarchy of the dominance of factors controlling C fluxes and their response. The positive climate forcing of subtropical wetlands may be dictated by plant-mediated and climate interactions, with hydrological factors playing a major role in determining the greenhouse gas sink or source strength of subtropical wetlands.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Anthropogenic Influences Alter the Response and Seasonality of Evapotranspiration: A Case Study Over Two High Mountain Asia Basins

Earth's vegetation has been increasing over the past decades, altering water and energy cycles by changing evapotranspiration (ET). Greening, caused by climatic and anthropogenic factors, has high rates in High Mountain Asia (HMA). Here we focus on two HMA basins (the Yangtze and the Ganges-Brahmaputra) to contrast the impacts of climate- and human-induced greening on ET. Though the rate of greening is similar in both basins, anthropogenic influences lead to dissimilar responses in ET. In the Yangtze, climate-induced greening increases ET, with the increase in moisture being high enough to meet the ET demand. In the Ganges-Brahmaputra, irrigation-induced greening does not alter annual ET, only pre-monsoon ET increases. The dry season declines in water storage due to pumping decrease ET, while laboriously meeting the demand. This study provides a representative example of the contrasting influences of climate induced and anthropogenic driven processes on the seasonality of ET.

Fadji Z Maina↗