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NASA NTRS2014

How Well Does the Latest Anthropomorphic Test Device Mimic Human Impact Responses?

One of the goals of the NASA Occupant Protection Group is to understand the human tolerance to dynamic loading. This knowledge has to come through indirect approaches such as existing human response databases, anthropometric test devices (ATD), animal testing, post-‐mortem human subjects, and models. This study investigated the biofidelity of the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration's ATD named the THOR (test device for human occupant restraint). If THOR responds comparably to humans, then it could potentially be used as a human surrogate to help validate space vehicle requirements for occupant protection. The THOR responses to frontal and spinal impacts (ranging from 8 to 12 G with rise times of 40, 70, and 100 ms) were measured and compared to human volunteer responses (95 trials in frontal and 58 in spinal) previously collected by the U. S. Air Force on the same horizontal impact accelerator. The impact acceleration profiles tested are within the expected range of multi-‐purpose crew vehicle (MPCV) landing dynamics. A correlation score was calculated for each THOR to human comparison using CORA (CORrelation and Analysis) software. A two-‐parameter beta distribution model fit was obtained for each dependent variable using maximum likelihood estimation. For frontal impacts, the THOR head x-‐acceleration peak response correlated with the human response at 8 and 10-‐G 100 ms but not 10-‐G 70 ms. The phase lagged the human response. Head z-‐acceleration was not correlated. Chest x-‐acceleration was in phase, had a higher peak response, and was well correlated with lighter subjects (Cora = 0.8 for 46 kg vs. Cora = 0.4 for 126 kg). Head x-‐displacement had a leading phase. Several subjects responded with the same peak displacement but the mean of the group was lower. The shoulder x-‐displacement was in phase but had higher peaks than the human response. For spinal impacts, the THOR head x-‐acceleration was not well correlated. Head and chest z-‐acceleration was in phase but had a higher peak response. Chest z-‐acceleration was highly correlated with heavier subjects at lower G pulses (Cora = 0.86 for 125 kg at 8 G). The human response was variable in shoulder z-‐displacement but the THOR was in phase and was comparable to the mean peak response. Head x-‐ and z-‐displacement was in phase but had higher peaks. Seat pan forces were well correlated, were in phase, but had a larger peak response than most subjects. The THOR does not respond to frontal and spinal impacts exactly the same way that a human does. Some responses are well matched and others are not. Understanding the strengths and weaknesses of this ATD is an important first step in determining its usefulness in occupant protection at NASA

Newby, Nate↗

NASA NTRS2015

SPHERES: From Ground Development to Operations on ISS

SPHERES (Synchronized Position Hold Engage and Reorient Experimental Satellites) is an internal International Space Station (ISS) Facility that supports multiple investigations for the development of multi-spacecraft and robotic control algorithms. The SPHERES Facility on ISS is managed and operated by the SPHERES National Lab Facility at NASA Ames Research Center (ARC) at Moffett Field California. The SPHERES Facility on ISS consists of three self-contained eight-inch diameter free-floating satellites which perform the various flight algorithms and serve as a platform to support the integration of experimental hardware. To help make science a reality on the ISS, the SPHERES ARC team supports a Guest Scientist Program (GSP). This program allows anyone with new science the possibility to interface with the SPHERES team and hardware. In addition to highlighting the available SPHERES hardware on ISS and on the ground, this presentation will also highlight ground support, facilities, and resources available to guest researchers. Investigations on the ISS evolve through four main phases: Strategic, Tactical, Operations, and Post Operations. The Strategic Phase encompasses early planning beginning with initial contact by the Principle Investigator (PI) and the SPHERES program who may work with the PI to assess what assistance the PI may need. Once the basic parameters are understood, the investigation moves to the Tactical Phase which involves more detailed planning, development, and testing. Depending on the nature of the investigation, the tactical phase may be split into the Lab Tactical Phase or the ISS Tactical Phase due to the difference in requirements for the two destinations. The Operations Phase is when the actual science is performed; this can be either in the lab, or on the ISS. The Post Operations Phase encompasses data analysis and distribution, and generation of summary status and reports. The SPHERES Operations and Engineering teams at ARC is composed of experts who can guide the Payload Developer (PD) and Principle Investigator (PI) in reaching critical milestones to make their science a reality using the SPHERES platform. From performing integrated safety and verification assessments, to assisting in developing crew procedures and operations products, to organizing, planning, and executing all test sessions, to helping manage data products, the SPHERES team at ARC is available to support microgravity research with the SPEHRES Guest Scientist Program.

ISS Research↗

DOE OSTI2020

Verification and Validation of the STAT7 Code

This document presents the verification and validation of the STAT7 Version 1.0 code which has been developed to perform the steady-state thermal hydraulic safety calculation of the MIT Research Reactor required upon conversion of the reactor from high enrichment uranium fuel to low enrichment uranium fuel. The key capabilites of the code including the statistical processing, water property generation, and thermal hydraulic solution are verified independently. While the first two capabilites are checked using statistical tests and NIST data tables, each component of the thermal hydraulic solution is verified using simple geometry test problems. The comparison between results obtained by the code and hand calculations on these problems shows that each of these components work correctly. Additionally, a comprehensive comparison between STAT7 Version 1.0 and PLTEMP/ANL Version 4.2 calculations for a five-channel test problem is performed for the validation. The good agreement between the obtained results for all thermal hydraulic parameters belonging to the fuel core region is achieved. An issue in bypass flowrate calculation was detected when both fin-friction and bypass flow claculations are involved. This problem can be corrected in a later version of the code, however, does not affect the application of STAT7 code as it has been used to date where the flow distribution in the core region and bypass channel is specified as an input parameter.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

DOE OSTI2020

Verification and Validation of the STAT7 Code

This document presents the verification and validation of the STAT7 Version 1.0 code which has been developed to perform the steady-state thermal hydraulic safety calculation of the MIT Research Reactor required upon conversion of the reactor from highly enriched uranium fuel to low- enriched uranium fuel. The key capabilities of the code including the statistical processing, water property generation, and thermal hydraulic solution are verified independently. While the first two capabilities are checked using statistical tests and NIST data tables, each component of the thermal hydraulic solution is verified using simple geometry test problems. The comparison between results obtained by the code and hand calculations on these problems shows that each of these components work correctly. Additionally, a comprehensive comparison between STAT7 Version 1.0 and PLTEMP/ANL Version 4.2 calculations for a five-channel test problem is performed for the validation. The good agreement between the obtained results for all thermal hydraulic parameters belonging to the fuel core region is achieved. An issue in bypass flowrate calculation was detected when both fin-friction and bypass flow calculations are involved. This problem can be corrected in a later version of the code. However, it does not affect the application of STAT7 as it has been used to date where the flow distribution in the core region and bypass channel is specified as an input parameter.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

NASA NTRS1978

Evaluation of the SSRCT engine with a hydrazine as a fuel, phase 1

The performance parameters for the space shuttle reaction control thruster (SSRCT) when the fuel is changed from monomethylhydrazine to hydrazine were predicted. Potential problems are higher chamber wall temperature during steady state operation and explosive events during pulse mode operation. Solutions to the problems are suggested. To conduct the analysis, a more realistic film cooling model was devised which considers that hydrazine based fuels are reactive when used as a film coolant on the walls of the combustion chamber. Hydrazine based fuels can decompose exothermally as a monopropellant and also enter into bipropellant reactions with any excess oxidizer in the combustion chamber. It is concluded that the conversion of the thruster from MMH to hydrazine fuel is feasible but that a number of changes would be required to achieve the same safety margins as the monomethylhydrazine-fueled thruster.

Minton, S. J.↗

NASA NTRS1996

Proportional and scale change models to project failures of mechanical components with applications to space station

In this paper we develop the mathematical theory of proportional and scale change models to perform reliability analysis. The results obtained will be applied for the Reaction Control System (RCS) thruster valves on an orbiter. With the advent of extended EVA's associated with PROX OPS (ISSA & MIR), and docking, the loss of a thruster valve now takes on an expanded safety significance. Previous studies assume a homogeneous population of components with each component having the same failure rate. However, as various components experience different stresses and are exposed to different environments, their failure rates change with time. In this paper we model the reliability of a thruster valves by treating these valves as a censored repairable system. The model for each valve will take the form of a nonhomogeneous process with the intensity function that is either treated as a proportional hazard model, or a scale change random effects hazard model. Each component has an associated z, an independent realization of the random variable Z from a distribution G(z). This unobserved quantity z can be used to describe heterogeneity systematically. For various models methods for estimating the model parameters using censored data will be developed. Available field data (from previously flown flights) is from non-renewable systems. The estimated failure rate using such data will need to be modified for renewable systems such as thruster valve.

Taneja, Vidya S.↗

NASA NTRS2011

Handling Qualities Evaluations of Low Complexity Model Reference Adaptive Controllers for Reduced Pitch and Roll Damping Scenarios

National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) researchers have conducted a series of flight experiments designed to study the effects of varying levels of adaptive controller complexity on the performance and handling qualities of an aircraft under various simulated failure or damage conditions. A baseline, nonlinear dynamic inversion controller was augmented with three variations of a model reference adaptive control design. The simplest design consisted of a single adaptive parameter in each of the pitch and roll axes computed using a basic gradient-based update law. A second design was built upon the first by increasing the complexity of the update law. The third and most complex design added an additional adaptive parameter to each axis. Flight tests were conducted using NASA s Full-scale Advanced Systems Testbed, a highly modified F-18 aircraft that contains a research flight control system capable of housing advanced flight controls experiments. Each controller was evaluated against a suite of simulated failures and damage ranging from destabilization of the pitch and roll axes to significant coupling between the axes. Two pilots evaluated the three adaptive controllers as well as the non-adaptive baseline controller in a variety of dynamic maneuvers and precision flying tasks designed to uncover potential deficiencies in the handling qualities of the aircraft, and adverse interactions between the pilot and the adaptive controllers. The work was completed as part of the Integrated Resilient Aircraft Control Project under NASA s Aviation Safety Program.

Hanson, Curt↗

DOE OSTI2024

Relating Measured Component Damage to Assessed Component Reliability in Reliability Integrity Management (RIM)

There is currently no widely agreed detailed general method for licensing a novel plant incorporating novel materials (or materials being deployed in novel environments); in many such situations, there are no directly applicable engineering code cases for decision-makers (including regulators) to rely on. It may be possible to develop an approach to licensing such a plant that is based on the Reliability and Integrity Management (RIM) approach delineated in ASME BPVC Section XI Division 2. NRC Regulatory Guide 1.246, Rev.0, endorses, with conditions, the subject portion of the ASME Code. But that portion of the ASME code is written at a very high level, and there are fundamental technical challenges associated with applying it literally to licensing a real plant. In the RIM approach, applicants need to do the following (among other things): • Allocate target reliabilities to structures, systems, and components (SSCs) that collectively support the top-level plant safety and availability objectives; • Understand failure modes of those SSCs, and the degradation mechanisms that could lead to those failure modes; • Develop and propose a program of surveillances that will identify degradation prior to failure of SSCs; • Provide a means of reporting results, taking actions for anomalous or undesirable conditions, and give the regulator assurance of continued safe operations. Applying RIM in a specific case will call for advances in the state of practice of relating physical observables to functional reliability of certain component types. Except where a given level of damage corresponds to a failed (or nearly failed) state, it is not practical to establish a precise quantitative relationship between physical observables and reliability. This paper focuses on managing risk of passive component failures based on observable damage parameters. A simple approach to cumulative damage modeling will be illustrated with a view to possible use in RIM applications.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

NASA NTRS2009

Composite Overwrap Pressure Vessels: Mechanics and Stress Rupture Lifting Philosophy

The NASA Engineering and Safety Center (NESC) has been conducting an independent technical assessment to address safety concerns related to the known stress rupture failure mode of filament wound pressure vessels in use on Shuttle and the International Space Station. The Shuttle s Kevlar-49 (DuPont) fiber overwrapped tanks are of particular concern due to their long usage and the poorly understood stress rupture process in Kevlar-49 filaments. Existing long term data show that the rupture process is a function of stress, temperature and time. However due to the presence of load sharing liners and the complex manufacturing procedures, the state of actual fiber stress in flight hardware and test articles is not clearly known. Indeed nonconservative life predictions have been made where stress rupture data and lifing procedures have ignored the contribution of the liner in favor of applied pressure as the controlling load parameter. With the aid of analytical and finite element results, this paper examines the fundamental mechanical response of composite overwrapped pressure vessels including the influence of elastic plastic liners and degraded/creeping overwrap properties. Graphical methods are presented describing the non-linear relationship of applied pressure to Kevlar-49 fiber stress/strain during manufacturing, operations and burst loadings. These are applied to experimental measurements made on a variety of vessel systems to demonstrate the correct calibration of fiber stress as a function of pressure. Applying this analysis to the actual qualification burst data for Shuttle flight hardware revealed that the nominal fiber stress at burst was in some cases 23 percent lower than what had previously been used to predict stress rupture life. These results motivate a detailed discussion of the appropriate stress rupture lifing philosophy for COPVs including the correct transference of stress rupture life data between dissimilar vessels and test articles.

Thesken, John C.↗

DOE OSTI2024

Leveraging Optimal Sparse Sensor Placement to Aggregate a Network of Digital Twins for Nuclear Subsystems

Nuclear power plants (NPPs) require continuous monitoring of various systems, structures, and components to ensure safe and efficient operations. The critical safety testing of new fuel compositions and the analysis of the effects of power transients on core temperatures can be achieved through modeling and simulations. They capture the dynamics of the physical phenomenon associated with failure modes and facilitate the creation of digital twins (DTs). Accurate reconstruction of fields of interest (e.g., temperature, pressure, velocity) from sensor measurements is crucial to establish a two-way communication between physical experiments and models. Sensor placement is highly constrained in most nuclear subsystems due to challenging operating conditions and inherent spatial limitations. This study develops optimized data-driven sensor placements for full-field reconstruction within reactor and steam generator subsystems of NPPs. Optimized constrained sensors reconstruct field of interest within a tri-structural isotropic (TRISO) fuel irradiation experiment, a lumped parameter model of a nuclear fuel test rod and a steam generator. The optimization procedure leverages reduced-order models of flow physics to provide a highly accurate full-field reconstruction of responses of interest, noise-induced uncertainty quantification and physically feasible sensor locations. Accurate sensor-based reconstructions establish a foundation for the digital twinning of subsystems, culminating in a comprehensive DT aggregate of an NPP.

42 ENGINEERING↗

NASA NTRS1987

Reliability modeling of fault-tolerant computer based systems

Digital fault-tolerant computer-based systems have become commonplace in military and commercial avionics. These systems hold the promise of increased availability, reliability, and maintainability over conventional analog-based systems through the application of replicated digital computers arranged in fault-tolerant configurations. Three tightly coupled factors of paramount importance, ultimately determining the viability of these systems, are reliability, safety, and profitability. Reliability, the major driver affects virtually every aspect of design, packaging, and field operations, and eventually produces profit for commercial applications or increased national security. However, the utilization of digital computer systems makes the task of producing credible reliability assessment a formidable one for the reliability engineer. The root of the problem lies in the digital computer's unique adaptability to changing requirements, computational power, and ability to test itself efficiently. Addressed here are the nuances of modeling the reliability of systems with large state sizes, in the Markov sense, which result from systems based on replicated redundant hardware and to discuss the modeling of factors which can reduce reliability without concomitant depletion of hardware. Advanced fault-handling models are described and methods of acquiring and measuring parameters for these models are delineated.

Bavuso, Salvatore J.↗

NASA NTRS2007

Composite Overwrap Pressure Vessels: Mechanics and Stress Rupture Lifing Philosophy

The NASA Engineering and Safety Center (NESC) has been conducting an independent technical assessment to address safety concerns related to the known stress rupture failure mode of filament wound pressure vessels in use on Shuttle and the International Space Station. The Shuttle's Kevlar-49 fiber overwrapped tanks are of particular concern due to their long usage and the poorly understood stress rupture process in Kevlar-49 filaments. Existing long term data show that the rupture process is a function of stress, temperature and time. However due to the presence of load sharing liners and the complex manufacturing procedures, the state of actual fiber stress in flight hardware and test articles is not clearly known. Indeed non-conservative life predictions have been made where stress rupture data and lifing procedures have ignored the contribution of the liner in favor of applied pressure as the controlling load parameter. With the aid of analytical and finite element results, this paper examines the fundamental mechanical response of composite overwrapped pressure vessels including the influence of elastic-plastic liners and degraded/creeping overwrap properties. Graphical methods are presented describing the non-linear relationship of applied pressure to Kevlar-49 fiber stress/strain during manufacturing, operations and burst loadings. These are applied to experimental measurements made on a variety of vessel systems to demonstrate the correct calibration of fiber stress as a function of pressure. Applying this analysis to the actual qualification burst data for Shuttle flight hardware revealed that the nominal fiber stress at burst was in some cases 23% lower than what had previously been used to predict stress rupture life. These results motivate a detailed discussion of the appropriate stress rupture lifing philosophy for COPVs including the correct transference of stress rupture life data between dissimilar vessels and test articles.

Thesken, John C.↗

DOE OSTI2023

Analysis of the MUSIC 3 He Multiplicity Data

A measurement campaign called the Measurement of Uranium Subcritical and Critical (MUSiC) was performed on a range of configurations of highly-enriched uranium (HEU) from December 2020 through April of 2021. While part of the focus was to measure reactor kinetics parameters on delayed supercritical systems, an additional focus was performing neutron noise measurements on subcritical configurations from deeply subcritical to nearly delayed critical. Multiple detector systems were used to perform these measurements, such as a 3 He multiplicity detector called the Neutron Multiplicity Array Detector (NoMAD) and a liquid scintillator system called the Rossi-α Measurement Rapid Organic Discriminating Detector (RAM-RODD). Also included were a scintillator system from the University of Michigan and a set of small 3He tubes that have previously been used to measure Rossi-α values on near-critical systems. The focus of this paper will be a comparison of prospective analysis methods for the NoMAD measurements. Previous subcritical measurements at the National Criticality Experiments Research Center (NCERC) submitted to the International Criticality Safety Benchmark Evaluation Project (ICSBEP) used the Hage-Cifarelli formalism of the Feynman Variance-to-Mean method. This relies on the time correlations of neutron detections to infer the spontaneous fission rate and neutron multiplication of a system through binning the time tagged detections and analyzing resulting histograms of the numbers of counts. However, there are other neutron noise methods that rely on similar processes, such as the Hansen-Dowdy formalism which uses a slightly different methodology to extract multiplication from the neutron multiplicity counting moments. Comparisons can be made between these experimental results and those obtained through simulations to validate or identify deficiencies in analysis, detection methods, or the underlying nuclear data. Different time gating strategies and their effects on count rate uncertainties are also investigated.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Nuclear data uncertainty propagation applied to the versatile test reactor conceptual design

We report the Versatile Test Reactor (VTR) currently under development is a 300 MWth sodium-cooled fast reactor (SFR) fueled with ternary metal alloy fuel, which aims to accelerate the testing of advanced nuclear fuels, materials, instrumentation, and sensors in high flux environments that are necessary to license the next generation of advanced reactor concepts. To support the VTR design process, uncertainties associated with the nuclear data has been propagated through the reactor core neutronics calculation to global parameters of interest, such as the core multiplication factor, kinetic parameters, and various reactivity feedback coefficients, following the sensitivity based uncertainty propagation approach. By folding the sensitivity coefficients, separately computed by the generalized perturbation theory code PERSENT and Monte Carlo code Serpent 2, with the variance-covariance matrices from COMMARA-2.0, we obtain the reaction-wise, isotope-wise, and overall uncertainties for each response of interest due to nuclear data uncertainty. With Serpent 2, the statistical error of the uncertainty is obtained by propagating the statistical error of the sensitivity coefficients through the same process using a newly developed uncertainty propagation method. From both codes, the overall top uncertainty contributors are found to be the cross section of Fe-56 elastic scattering, Na-23 elastic scattering, and U 238 inelastic scattering. The large contributions of the Fe-56 elastic scattering cross sections to global parameters are due to its relatively large relative uncertainty of 5–10% in nuclear data and the large volume of Fe-containing reflector assemblies in the fairly compact VTR core design. Both codes agreed well for the overall uncertainty estimates of all responses of interest, except the delayed neutron fraction, prompt neutron generation time, and the coolant density feedback coefficient, where Serpent 2 yielded a much larger value than PERSENT due to the large statistical error of sensitivity coefficients. The calculated uncertainties are also compared to those associated with other SFR cores. Another outcome of this study is a variance-covariance matrix of reactivity coefficients, which can be used in the subsequent uncertainty propagation to the system level to investigate the impact of identified uncertainties on system responses in the safety analysis.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Global Sensitivity Analysis of a Frequency Domain Reactor Noise Methodology using Welch's Method for the KRUSTY Experiment [Slides]

Reactor noise is a nondestructive approach to measure neutron/gamma fluctuations. Extract kinetic parameters such the prompt neutron decay constant (a). Used in applications such as safeguards and reactor physics. This work address the impact on precision from frequency domain analysis methodology.

BeO↗

DOE OSTI2019

Enhancement of EM Pump Performance through Modeling and Testing

Liquid sodium has seen development as a nuclear reactor coolant in the United States for over 50 years. While sodium has many desirable characteristics as a heat transfer fluid, its reactivity poses numerous engineering challenges for even the most basic plant components like pumps. Despite the challenges, mechanical pumps have seen success in sodium service albeit at the expense of simplicity and flexibility. In fact, significant failures of these pumps have been recorded which can be attributed to their complexity. Notwithstanding the complexity, mechanical pumps are still widely proposed for the main circuit pump of sodium cooled reactors. However, an alternative to mechanical pumps are Electromagnetic Induction Pumps (EMIPs) which use the principle of the Lorentz Force. EMIPs avoid mechanically moving parts in contact with sodium which simplifies the design by avoiding mechanical wear and seals. Therefore, these pumps are generally safer and more reliable than their mechanical counterparts. That being said, EMIPs suffer from relatively low efficiencies that range from 5% to 45%. Some of the inefficiencies are inherent to the EMIPs pumps; namely, inefficiencies arise in the form of resistive heating losses in the fluid itself. However, other inefficiencies arise from Edge Effects which include Finite Length and Finite Width effects. Due to the significant safety advantages EMIPs have compared to mechanical pumps, there is a strong motivation to integrate these technologies into the design of Generation IV liquid-metal-cooled nuclear power plants. However, EMIPs have low efficiencies partly attributed to Edge Effects. Much of the literature focusing on Edge Effects is dated or simply does not exist in the public domain. More recently, numerical models of EMIPs have shown promising results. However, these models are often custom solvers or use complex software suits which limit their application. This report describes the work completed to understand Edge Effects in two EMIPs designs. These designs are the Annular Linear Induction Pump (ALIP) and Permanent Magnet Induction Pump (PMIP) also known as a Moving Magnet Pump (MMP). The methodology developed during this project aim at measuring key performance parameters (pressure-flowrate and efficiency-slip performance) using high temperature liquid-sodium. Baseline experimental measurements were then used to verify the accuracy of numerical models developed in the software suit ANSYS/FLUENT. On the experimental side, instrumentation was developed to characterize the pressure-flowrate and efficiency-slip performance of both the ALIP and PMIP in high-temperature liquid-sodium. Additionally, instrumentation was developed to measure potential output pressure pulsations and the magnetic field distributions. Moreover, a specialized ALIP was constructed to study the impacts magnetic field tapering, also known as coil grading, on the Finite Length Effect. Lastly, experimental performance curves of the PMIP were collected at 300 oC and 600 oC and compared to analytical theory which accounted for Finite Width Effects. These results showed that the Finite Width Effect and non-uniform magnetic field in a PMIP impact the performance. On the numerical side, models were developed using the software suit FLUENT/ANSYS. These methods were initially compared against a simple MHD flow in a Permanent Magnet Electromagnet Flowmeter (PMEMFM). The results were significant in that they showed agreeance between the numerical model and demonstrated that PMEMFM’s could be calibrated numerically. These modeling methods were then applied to a prototypic PMIP. Results showed that this simple model provided reasonably accurate results of the PMIP p-Q performance.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

DOE OSTI2024

A Roadmap for a Lightning Modeling Grand Challenge

This document is a roadmap for building an interconnected model of the physical processes that produce a lightning discharge, and its observable optical and radio signals. We call this a Lightning Modeling Grand Challenge, recognizing that significant effort and coordination of human and financial resources is required to realize the capability. The roadmap serves to outline the coordination of resources necessary to enable stitching together existing knowledge and model components to make a lightning prediction, and to test these predictions with observations. Such a capability does not currently exist. The roadmap is motivated not only by a spirit of scientific inquiry, but by practical challenges faced by US Federal and societal stakeholders. Advancements in lightning observations have outpaced our tests of integrated understanding, leaving many stakeholders unsure how to design their missions to properly detect and discriminate lightning, and unsure how to apply the sometimes-disagreeing lightning signals from diverse instruments. The time is right to connect existing theories and models to support stakeholders in understanding the signals they observe, for needs as diverse as climate monitoring, national security, weather forecasting, public safety, and protection of natural and built environments. The roadmap’s two main technical sections describe the components of a linked physical model, followed by a description of models of lightning signals and sensors that are driven by outputs from the physical model. The goal is to predict the time-varying physical properties of lightning that are self-consistent with the thunderstorm’s structure and dynamics. These lightning signals then propagate through the storm, with realistic dispersion and attenuation, to receivers on the ground or in space. At a high level, the model begins with weather (cloud) model output, including explicit prediction of the electrification of cloud particles. The cloud’s electrical structure drives a model of lightning physics, from initiation, through channel development, and discharges along those channels. Key lightning parameters, such as the temperature and currents in the channel, and their space and time distribution, are then used to produce optical and electromagnetic signal sources that propagate to modeled receivers. This architecture therefore generates a dataset suitable for comparison to existing and envisioned observing systems. The need for additional measurements and field campaigns to support model development is described. In each model sub-component, inputs, outputs, uncertainties, evaluation methods, and next steps are summarized, interleaved with references to the scientific literature. Identifying boundaries between the model sub-components aids in segmenting an integrated, complex model into practical work packages and system sub-components, allowing a diverse team to contribute and maintain the system. We estimate that at least five years of effort and a $\$$10M initial investment is necessary to make a significant step forward. Mechanisms to facilitate community coordination, including annual workshops and open-source code repositories, are described.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2004

Sensor Needs for Control and Health Management of Intelligent Aircraft Engines

NASA and the U.S. Department of Defense are conducting programs which support the future vision of "intelligent" aircraft engines for enhancing the affordability, performance, operability, safety, and reliability of aircraft propulsion systems. Intelligent engines will have advanced control and health management capabilities enabling these engines to be self-diagnostic, self-prognostic, and adaptive to optimize performance based upon the current condition of the engine or the current mission of the vehicle. Sensors are a critical technology necessary to enable the intelligent engine vision as they are relied upon to accurately collect the data required for engine control and health management. This paper reviews the anticipated sensor requirements to support the future vision of intelligent engines from a control and health management perspective. Propulsion control and health management technologies are discussed in the broad areas of active component controls, propulsion health management and distributed controls. In each of these three areas individual technologies will be described, input parameters necessary for control feedback or health management will be discussed, and sensor performance specifications for measuring these parameters will be summarized.

Simon, Donald L.↗