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At least 1,009 records · Page 56

Net Load Forecasting With Disaggregated Behind-the-Meter PV Generation

As worldwide use of residential photovoltaic (PV) systems grows, system operators and utilities will need to transition from forecasting pure demand to forecasting net load with behind-the-meter (BTM) PV generation. However, PV generation can be difficult to predict and the measurements of PV generation from BTM residential systems are often invisible behind a measurement of the net load, making net load forecasting challenging. This paper proposes a novel two-stage framework for net load forecasting in areas with limited observability and high BTM PV generation. First, the profiles of observable customers are used to disaggregate the net load measurements into the pure load and PV generation. Then, separate models are used to forecast the PV generation and pure load individually, and the results are combined for a net load forecast. Further, this paper also proposes a compensator for correcting the error of the net load forecast, using historical forecast errors of the PV generation, pure load, and net load. The proposed framework is tested through two case studies for areas with high BTM PV penetration and less than 10% observable customers. The two-stage forecasting model is compared to two benchmark methods - a time series forecasting model, and a model that forecasts the net load directly using historical net load measurements. Results show that the proposed disaggregation-forecasting framework reduces the error of the net load forecast compared to both benchmark models. In addition, when the net load forecast error is periodic, the compensator can correct the error to improve the forecast accuracy.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

CFD Simulations of the Space Launch System Ascent Aerodynamics and Booster Separation

This paper presents details of Computational Fluid Dynamic modeling of the Space Launch System during ascent. The primary focus of the paper is the flow simulation of the vehicle during ascent using the Overflow Navier-Stokes code. Computations of 739 first-stage flight conditions covering a range of Mach numbers, angles of attack, and roll angles were computed. The overset grid system contained 375 million grid points, and over 28 mil- lion CPU hours were used in the simulations. The simulations were run on the Pleiades supercomputer at the NASA Advanced Supercomputer Center at Ames Research Center. The data products from this work include integrated line-loads, surface pressure coefficients, venting pressures, and protuberance air-loads. Detailed comparisons were made of the aerodynamic performance predicted by Overflow and the wind-tunnel derived aero- dynamic database. A small number of the cases were run with two different turbulence models and with two differencing schemes. These results were used to quantify the sensitivity to the choice of the turbulence model and to the differencing scheme. The paper also introduces an effort to use the inviscid, unstructured Cartesian solver Cart3D to compute the aerodynamics during booster separation. Adaptive mesh refinement is being used to enable accurate simulations of sixteen booster-separation-motor plumes. The use of this tool is explored in preparation for building a booster-separation aerodynamic database.

Ascent Aerodynamics↗

Improving biomass pyrolysis economics by integrating vapor and liquid phase upgrading

Partial deoxygenation of bio-oil by catalytic fast pyrolysis with subsequent coupling and hydrotreating can lead to improved economics and will aid commercial deployment of pyrolytic conversion of biomass technologies. Biomass pyrolysis efficiently depolymerizes and deconstructs solid plant matter into carbonaceous molecules that, upon catalytic upgrading, can be used for fuels and chemicals. Upgrading strategies include catalytic deoxygenation of the vapors before they are condensed (in situ and ex situ catalytic fast pyrolysis), or hydrotreating following condensation of the bio-oil. In general, deoxygenation carbon efficiencies, one of the most important cost drivers, are typically higher for hydrotreating when compared to catalytic fast pyrolysis alone. However, using catalytic fast pyrolysis as the primary conversion step can benefit the entire process chain by: (1) reducing the reactivity of the bio-oil, thereby mitigating issues with aging and transport and eliminating need for multi-stage hydroprocessing configurations; (2) producing a bio-oil that can be fractionated through distillation, which could lead to more efficient use of hydrogen during hydrotreating and facilitate integration in existing petroleum refineries; and (3) allowing for the separation of the aqueous phase. In this perspective, we investigate in detail a combination of these approaches, where some oxygen is removed during catalytic fast pyrolysis and the remainder removed by downstream hydrotreating, accompanied by carbon–carbon coupling reactions in either the vapor or liquid phase to maximize carbon efficiency toward value-driven products (e.g. fuels or chemicals). The economic impact of partial deoxygenation by catalytic fast pyrolysis will be explored in the context of an integrated two-stage process. In conclusion, improving the overall pyrolysis-based biorefinery economics by inclusion of production of high-value co-products will be examined.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Properties of solar ephemeral regions at the emergence stage

For the first time, we statistically study the properties of ephemeral regions (ERs) and quantitatively determine their parameters at the emergence stage based on a sample of 2988 ERs observed by the Solar Dynamics Observatory. During the emergence process, there are three kinds of kinematic performances, i.e., separation of dipolar patches, shift of the ER's magnetic centroid, and rotation of the ER's axis. The average emergence duration, flux emergence rate, separation velocity, shift velocity, and angular speed are 49.3 minutes, 2.6 × 10{sup 15} Mx s{sup –1}, 1.1 km s{sup –1}, 0.9 km s{sup –1}, and 0.°6 minute{sup –1}, respectively. At the end of emergence, the mean magnetic flux, separation distance, shift distance, and rotation angle are 9.3 × 10{sup 18} Mx, 4.7 Mm, 1.1 Mm, and 12.°9, respectively. We also find that the higher the ER magnetic flux is, (1) the longer the emergence lasts, (2) the higher the flux emergence rate is, (3) the further the two polarities separate, (4) the lower the separation velocity is, (5) the larger the shift distance is, (6) the slower the ER shifts, and (7) the lower the rotation speed is. However, the rotation angle seems not to depend on the magnetic flux. Not only at the start time, but also at the end time, the ERs are randomly oriented in both the northern and the southern hemispheres. Finally, neither the anti-clockwise-rotated ERs nor the clockwise rotated ones dominate the northern or the southern hemisphere.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

The onset of massive star formation: The evolution of temperature and density structure in an infrared dark cloud

We present new NH{sub 3} (1, 1), (2, 2), and (4, 4) observations from the Karl G. Jansky Very Large Array compiled with work in the literature to explore the range of conditions observed in young, massive star-forming regions. To sample the effects of evolution independent from those of distance/resolution, abundance, and large-scale environment, we compare clumps in different evolutionary stages within a single infrared dark cloud (IRDC), G32.02+0.06. We find that the early stages of clustered star formation are characterized by dense, parsec-scale filamentary structures interspersed with complexes of dense cores (<0.1 pc cores clustered in complexes separated by ∼1 pc) with masses from about 10 to 100 M {sub ☉}. The most quiescent core is the most extended while the star forming cores are denser and more compact, showing very similar column density structure before and shortly after the onset of massive star formation, with peak surface densities Σ ≳ 1 g cm{sup –2}. Quiescent cores and filaments show smoothly varying temperatures from 10 to 20 K, rising to over 40 K in star-forming cores. We calculate virial parameters for 16 cores and find that the level of support provided by turbulence is generally insufficient to support them against gravitational collapse ((α{sub vir}) ∼ 0.6). The star-forming filaments show smooth velocity fields, punctuated by discontinuities at the sites of active star formation. We discuss the massive molecular filament (M ∼ 10{sup 5} M {sub ☉}, length >60 pc) hosting the IRDC, hypothesizing that it may have been shaped by previous generations of massive stars.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Utah FORGE: Phase 1a Tensor Strainmeter Data for the April, 2022 Stimulation of Well 16A(78)-32

Data from two Tensor Optical Fiber Strainmeters that were operational during Stages 1, 2, and 3 of the April, 2022 stimulation of well 16A(78)-32. Each csv file contains data from each stimulation stage (stage1, stage2, stage3) for both Phase 1a strainmeter installations (FS01, formerly FS-C, and FS02, formerly FS1-2) in human-readable comma-separated value text files. There are two header lines in each file describing the data contained in that column along with their units, respectively. Data have been decimated from 2 to 1 Hz to match the Pason data found in the linked GDR dataset below (16A78-32 Stimulation Pason Data). These files contain the time series spanning the same time interval as the Pason data as well as ambient data for 5 hours before the stimulation and 5 hours following shut in. The station locations were chosen based on their proximity to the borehole seismometers owned and operated by the University of Utah. See README.txt for more information.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Stabilization of Bio-Oil Fractions for Insertion into Petroleum Refineries

This project is part of a collaboration effort between Iowa State University (ISU), University of Oklahoma (OK) and Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL). The purpose of this project is to stabilize bio-oil fractions and improve their suitability for insertion into petroleum refineries. Bio-oil from fast pyrolysis of biomass is a complex mixture of unstable organic compounds. These organic compounds react under standard room conditions resulting in increases in bio-oil viscosity and water content – both detrimental for bio-oil storage and transportation. This study employed fractionation and upgrading systems to improve the stability of bio-oil. The fractionation system consists of a series of condensers, and electrostatic precipitators designed to separate bio-oil into five fractions: soluble carbohydrates (SF1&2), clean phenolic oligomers (CPO) and middle fraction (SF3&4), light oxygenates (SF5). A two-stage upgrading process was designed to process bio-oil stage fractions into stable products that can be inserted into a refinery. In the upgrading system, heavy and middle bio-oil fractions were upgraded into stable oil via cracking and subsequent hydrodeoxygenation. The light oxygenate fraction was steam reformed to provide a portion of requisite hydrogen for hydroprocessing. Hydrotreating and hydrocracking employed hydrogen from natural gas, fuel gas and light oxygenates reforming. The finished products from this study consist of gasoline- and diesel-blend stock fuels.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Vacancy-Vacancy Interaction in Copper

The binding energy of two vacancies in a static lattice as a function of their separation and the positions of their displaced neighboring atoms has been calculated using a Morse potential function model for copper. It was found that two vacancies attract one another at separation less than about 7 A. At separations greater than 7 A the vacancies do not interact appreciably. The most stable separation was found to be the first nearest- neighbor separation or the divacancy configuration, for which the binding energy was found to be 0.64 ev. Based on these calculations, it is shown that third-stage annealing in irradiated copper may be accounted for by divacancy migration. The role of the divacancy in copper self-diffusion is also explained.

Girifalco, L. A.↗

Tunable bandpass filter with variable selectivity

Basic active RC networks constructed from stages that realize second-order transfer functions using two integrators offer excellent stability. Modifications of the basic network produce a highly stable bandpass filter having separate controls that independently adjust center frequency, Q, and center frequency gain.

Kerwin, W. J.↗

Space science plans for the shuttle era.

Three separate and distinct modes of using the space shuttle system have been identified. These modes include the boost of a spacecraft plus one or more propulsion stages into earth orbit or parking orbit, the establishment and maintenance of automated observatories in space, and the support of exploratory research and instrument development. Studies show that approximately 60% of all planned NASA missions require a shuttle third stage. Illustrations are presented to show how the largest spacecraft, Viking, and its propulsion system, Centaur, and a communications satellite, with an Agena stage to place it into a geostationary orbit, would fit into the shuttle. Results of the NASA Shuttle Sortie Workshop studies are discussed together with prospects of European cooperation in future workshop experiments.

Naugle, J. E.↗

Fragments of ancient lunar crust: Ferroan noritic anorthosites from the descartes region of the Moon

Noritic anorthosite clasts from breccia 67016 have bulk compositions similar to that of the upper crust of the Moon and petrogenetic affinities with pristine ferroan anorthosites. Rb-Sr and Sm-Nd isotopic compositions of mineral separates from one of these clasts suggest very old (greater than or = 4.4 Ga) ages, but interpretation of these data is complicated by the multi-stage history of the clasts which involved magmatic crystallization, brecciation, subsolidus recrystallization, and sulfide metasomatism. These clasts record some of the earliest events on the Moon, including early crust formation, accretionary bombardment, and degassing of the lunar interior. Modal analyses of these clasts show they are now composed of about 70 percent plagioclase, 28 percent pyroxene, 2 percent troilite, and minor amounts of ilmenite and chromite. No metallic iron, phosphates, or other trace phases were observed. Olivine is very rare, occurring only as relicts within secondary troilite+pyroxene intergrowths which may reflect reaction of olivine with sulfurous vapors. PIXE proton microprobe analyses of the sulfides show that the metasomatism was accompanied by enrichments of Cu, Zn, Ni, Se, and Sb. The clasts have been only mildly shocked since the observed texture was established. Major and minor element mineral compositions are very homogeneous and strikingly similar to those of pristine ferroan anorthosites. Pyroxene compositions indicate equilibration temperatures of 850-900 C. Except for the sulfide and chalcophile element metasomatism, these clasts appear to be essentially monomict and probably represent a noritic member of the ferroan anorthosite suite. Their low Ni contents and Ni/Co ratios are consistent with the interpretation of these clasts as igneous rocks which have escaped mixing with meteoritic material.

Norman, M. D.↗

Ares V: Game Changer for National Security Launch

NASA is designing the Ares V cargo launch vehicle to vastly expand exploration of the Moon begun in the Apollo program and enable the exploration of Mars and beyond. As the largest launcher in history, Ares V also represents a national asset offering unprecedented opportunities for new science, national security, and commercial missions of unmatched size and scope. The Ares V is the heavy-lift component of NASA's dual-launch architecture that will replace the current space shuttle fleet, complete the International Space Station, and establish a permanent human presence on the Moon as a stepping-stone to destinations beyond. During extensive independent and internal architecture and vehicle trade studies as part of the Exploration Systems Architecture Study (ESAS), NASA selected the Ares I crew launch vehicle and the Ares V to support future exploration. The smaller Ares I will launch the Orion crew exploration vehicle with four to six astronauts into orbit. The Ares V is designed to carry the Altair lunar lander into orbit, rendezvous with Orion, and send the mated spacecraft toward lunar orbit. The Ares V will be the largest and most powerful launch vehicle in history, providing unprecedented payload mass and volume to establish a permanent lunar outpost and explore significantly more of the lunar surface than was done during the Apollo missions. The Ares V consists of a Core Stage, two Reusable Solid Rocket Boosters (RSRBs), Earth Departure Stage (EDS), and a payload shroud. For lunar missions, the shroud would cover the Lunar Surface Access Module (LSAM). The Ares V Core Stage is 33 feet in diameter and 212 feet in length, making it the largest rocket stage ever built. It is the same diameter as the Saturn V first stage, the S-IC. However, its length is about the same as the combined length of the Saturn V first and second stages. The Core Stage uses a cluster of five Pratt & Whitney Rocketdyne RS-68B rocket engines, each supplying about 700,000 pounds of thrust. Its propellants are liquid hydrogen and liquid oxygen. The two solid rocket boosters provide about 3.5 million pounds of thrust at liftoff. These 5.5-segment boosters are derived from the 4-segment boosters now used on the Space Shuttle, and are similar to those used in the Ares I first stage. The EDS is powered by one J-2X engine. The J-2X, which has roughly 294,000 pounds of thrust, also powers the Ares I Upper Stage. It is derived from the J-2 that powered the Saturn V second and third stages. The EDS performs two functions. Its initial suborbital burns will place the lunar lander into a stable Earth orbit. After the Orion crew vehicle, launched separately on an Ares I, docks with the lander/EDS stack, EDS will ignite a second time to put the combined 65-metric ton vehicle into a lunar transfer orbit. When it stands on the launch pad at Kennedy Space Center late in the next decade, the Ares V stack will be approximately 381 feet tall and have a gross liftoff mass of 8.1 million pounds. The current point-of-departure design exceeds Saturn V s mass capability by approximately 40 percent. Using the current payload shroud design, Ares V can carry 315,000 pounds to 29-degree low Earth orbit (LEO) or 77,000 pounds to a geosynchronous orbit. Another unique aspect of the Ares V is the 33-foot-diameter payload shroud, which encloses approximately 30,400 cubic feet of usable volume. A larger hypothetical shroud for encapsulating larger payloads has been studied. While Ares V makes possible larger payload masses and volumes, it may alternately make possible more cost-effective mission design if the relevant payload communities are willing to consider an alternative to the existing approach that has driven them to employ complexity to solve current launch vehicle mass and volume constraints. By using Ares V s mass and volume capabilities as margin, payload designers stand to reduce development risk and cost. Significant progress has been made on the Ares V to support a plaed fiscal 2011 authority-to-proceed (ATP) milestone. The Ares V team is actively reaching out to external organizations during this early concept phase to ensure that the Ares V vehicle can be leveraged for national security, science, and commercial development needs. This presentation will discuss Ares V vehicle configuration, the path to the current concept, accomplishments to date, and potential payload utilization opportunities.

Sumrall, Phil↗

Aqueous Alteration of Enstatite Chondrites

The Kaidun meteorite is different from all other meteorites [1], consisting largely of a mixture of “incompatible” types of meteoritic material – carbonaceous and enstatite chondrites, i.e. corre-sponding to the most oxidized and the most reduced samples of meteorite materials, including CI1, CM1-2, CV3, EH3-5, and EL3. In addition to these, minor amounts of ordinary and R chondrites are present. In addition, approximately half of the Kaidun lithologies are new materials not known as separate meteorites. Among these are aqueously altered enstatite chondrites [1], which are of considerable interest because they testify that not all reduced asteroids escaped late-stage oxidation, and hydrolysis, and also because hydrated poorly crystalline Si-Fe phase, which in turn is re-placed by serpentine (Figs 3-5). In the end the only indication of the original presence of metal is the re-sidual carbides. In other enstatite chondrite lithogies (of uncertain type) original silicates and metal have been thoroughly replaced by an assemblage of authi-genic plagioclase laths, calcite boxwork, and occasion-al residual grains of silica, Cr-rich troilite, ilmenite, and rare sulfides including heideite (Fig. 6). Fe and S have been largely leached from the rock (Fig. 4). Again the accessory phases are the first clue to the original character of the rock, which can be verified by O isotopes. It is fortunate that Kaidun displays every step of the alteration process.

Zolensky, M. E.↗

LOFTID (Low-Earth Orbit Flight Test of an Inflatable Decelerator) PASS (Payload Adapter Separation System) Design & Qualification

On November 10, 2022, NASA, in partnership with United Launch Alliance (ULA), launched Low-earth Orbit Flight Test of an Inflatable Decelerator (LOFTID) as a secondary payload on an Atlas V Centaur out of the Vandenburg Space Force Base (VSFB). After successfully delivering the primary payload, Joint Polar Satellite System-2 (JPSS-2), to a sun synchronous trajectory, the Centaur upper stage reoriented LOFTID onto the desired reentry trajectory. After conducting a de-orbit burn to enter the atmosphere the Payload Adaptor was ejected to expose the packed LOFTID vehicle. The LOFTID Hypersonic Inflatable Aerodynamic Decelerator (HIAD) was deployed and inflated. The Centaur pointed LOFTID to the desired entry attitude and spun the vehicle up to roughly three rpm before separating the reentry vehicle over the Middle East. The LOFTID vehicle flew freely before reentering the atmosphere over Alaska at >8km/sec and decelerating as designed. LOFTID demonstrated stable flight from hypersonic entry through subsonic parachute deployment. LOFTID was enabled by a mission-unique Payload Adapter Separation System (PASS) which separated the Payload Adapter prior to the start of the LOFTID flight demonstration, allowing the launch vehicle to accommodate a superstack of two independent, similarly sized payloads. This paper will discuss the design, development, and qualification effort of the LOFTID PASS.

Sean M Hancock↗

Tritium Recovery From Mixed Waste - 17004

Nuclear Sources and Services (NSSI) in Houston, TX houses a unique infrastructure to recover tritium from a variety of different streams for re-use. NSSI accepts gaseous, aqueous, and tritiated-solid feedstock. For example, titanium-tritide foils from spent neutron generator sources are de-tritiated at 1000 deg. C. Tritium gas is recovered from a variety of metal getter beds. Tritiated liquid that is desorbed from zeolite drier beds or generated while reconditioning nickel beds is transferred to a Combined Electrolysis Catalytic Exchange (CECE) system to concentrate the tritium fraction before the gas is transferred to a hydrogen isotope separator for enrichment. Mixed-waste liquids, typically generated in the pharmaceutical industry, are converted to tritiated water and inactive gaseous effluents using a high-temperature, two-stage, catalytic-oxidation destruction process. The destruction efficiency of solvents is extremely high, typically in the 99.9999% to 99.99999% range. The resultant water containing tritium is also directed to the CECE subsystem. At present, liquid activities ranging from the 0.37 MBq/L (10 μCi/L) to 740 GBq/L (20 Ci/L) can be processed economically. The CECE subsystem has de-tritiated 2 metric tons of heavy water per year and is designed to de-tritiate up to 30 metric tons of light water per year. NSSI is licensed to operate within a 2-gram tritium inventory limit. Recently the Mixed-Waste Oxidation Facility that can process up to 40 liters of liquid per day has been upgraded to reduce the corrosive effects of halogen-based mixed wastes on the effluent scrubbing system. This paper will outline the key features of this system and discuss the effectiveness of the upgrades and the operational parameter space. (authors)

07 ISOTOPE AND RADIATION SOURCES↗

Tumor Volume Is Better Than Diameter for Predicting the Prognosis of Patients with Early-Stage Non-small Cell Lung Cancer

Background: This study aimed to investigate whether tumor volume (TV) is better than diameter for predicting the prognosis of patients with early-stage non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) after complete resection. Methods: This study retrospectively reviewed the clinicopathologic characteristics of 274 patients with early-stage NSCLC who had received pretreatment computed tomography (CT) scans and complete resection. TV was semi-automatically measured from CT scans using an imaging software program. The optimal cutoff of TV was determined by X-tile software. Disease-free survival (DFS) and overall survival (OS) were assessed by the Kaplan–Meier method. The prognostic significance of TV and other variables was assessed by Cox proportional hazards regression analysis. Results: Using 3.046 cm{sup 3} and 8.078 cm{sup 3} as optimal cutoff values of TV, the patients were separated into three groups. A larger TV was significantly associated with poor DFS and OS in the multivariable analysis. Kaplan–Meier curves of DFS and OS showed significant differences on the basis of TV among patients with stage 1a disease, greatest tumor diameter (GTD) of 2 cm or smaller, and GTD of 2–3 cm, respectively. Using two TV cutoff points, three categories of TV were created. In 54 cases (19.7%), patients migrated from the GTD categories of 2 cm or smaller, 2–3 cm, and larger than 3 cm into the TV categories of 3.046 cm{sup 3} or smaller, 3.046–8.078 cm{sup 3}, and larger than 8.078 cm{sup 3}. Conclusion: TV is an independent prognostic factor of DFS and OS for early-stage NSCLC. The findings show that TV is better than GTD for predicting the prognosis of patients with early-stage NSCLC.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗

The role of surface forces in environment-enhanced cracking of brittle solids

Fracture initiation and propagation in brittle materials is promoted in surface-reactive (sorptive) environments, a phenomenon known as subcritical crack growth (SCG). Laboratory measured crack-propagation velocity vs. stress intensity factor relationships typically exhibit highly nonlinear, multi-stage characteristics that are sensitive to environmental factors such as adsorbate concentration and temperature. For practical purposes, empirical relationships (e.g., a power law) have been used to describe this complex phenomenon. However, how the overall SCG behavior emerges from the underlying fundamental processes near the crack tip, such as the interaction of the crack surfaces separated by only a few nanometers and mass transport within the nano-confined space, is still not well understood. This paper develops a mechanistic, surface-force-based fracture theory (SFFT) which integrates surface force models, fluid transport models, and linear elastic fracture mechanics to quantitatively explain the multi-stage characteristics of SCG in brittle solids. A numerical model is developed based on SFFT and solved through an implicit partitioned scheme for efficiency and modularity. The results are validated by Wiederhorn's data on crack propagation in soda-lime glasses at a wide range of relative humidity levels. We show that, for the first time, the entire range of an SCG curve can be captured by a single physics-based model. The predicted SCG curves reveal that the development of repulsive disjoining pressure behind the crack tip can be responsible for the reduced apparent fracture toughness in a sorptive environment. In conclusion, the shape of the SCG curve, and its changes with respect to the environment, is found to critically depend on the assumed transport models.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗