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At least 1,009 records · Page 56

Initial ASME code rule analysis on Simple and Full assessment

ASME & ASTM codes present simple and full assessment methodologies to qualify nuclear grade graphite components. This report explains the theory behind the statistical portion of the codes and describes the issues discussed in a 2020 workshop in the simple assessment, as well as the full assessment. The methodology for the full assessment was developed by Hindley []. He used a validation methodology to match the experimental average failure load of test specimens from several geometries to the calculated 50% POF load to tune the grouping criteria parameters based on an RMSE penalty function. The grouping criteria consists of a minimum volume to satisfy the weakest link theory of the Weibull distribution and a minimum stress range parameter. Hindley’s work found a minimum link volume of 10 times the grain size and a stress range parameter of 7% [satisfy the validation requirements. Several studies found that the link volume of 10 times the grain size was not satisfactory for the volume grouping criteria for graphite grades with fine grains. ASME 2021 code adopted a new volume grouping criteria based on fracture toughness for calculation of the process zone volume. However, errors were found in the ASME 2021 code process zone volume equation and the question is now open as to what volume grouping criteria is satisfactory. This report presents results from sensitivity studies that were done to evaluate the volume grouping criteria effect on the full assessment POF. This report also presents results from sensitivity studies on other aspects of the code that affect the POF, the mesh size and the choice of the Weibull threshold parameter. All three sensitivity studies: the volume grouping criteria, the mesh size, and the threshold parameter choice are found to affect the component qualification decision for components of structural reliability class 1 (SRC-1). The sensitivity analysis results are presented in the body of the report for NBG-18, which is the same grade of graphite as Hindley used in his thesis. Results from NBG-17, IG-110, 2114, and PCEA are presented in the Appendix. For NBG-18, it was found that increasing the threshold increases the POF, finer meshes result in higher POFs, and that smaller link volume requirements lead to higher POFs (which is inconsistent with Hindley’s findings). This report proposes a new validation study similar to Hindley’s []. The purpose of the new validation study is to tune the threshold, mesh size and grouping criteria based on results from multiple grades of graphite, including finer grain graphites T220 (1-3 microns) and NG-CT-50 (5 microns). The test specimens will be broken at 3 labs, such that we can measure between lab measurement variability, with at least 5 test specimens per lab such that the within lab uncertainty can also be measured. Hindley’s validation method tried matching the average experimental load with the median. The future study will attempt to match failures at lower percentiles, which would be closer to the SRC POF limit. We are currently looking into what geometries make sense and the best method to measure multi-axial stress states. These design decisions are still being set.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Changing the Rules on Fuel Export at Sellafield's First Fuel Storage Pond - 12065

The Pile Fuel Storage Pond (PFSP) was built in 1949/50 to receive, store and de-can fuel and isotopes from the Windscale Piles. Following closure of the Piles in 1957, plant operations were scaled down until fuel processing eventually ceased in 1962. The facility has held an inventory of metal fuel both from the Piles and from other programmes since that time. The pond is currently undergoing remediation and removal of the fuel is a key step in that process, unfortunately the fuel export infrastructure on the plant is no longer functional and due to the size and limited lifting capability, the plant is not compatible with today's large volume heavy export flasks. The baseline scheme for the plant is to package fuel into a small capacity flask and transfer it to another facility for treatment and repackaging into a flask compatible with other facilities on site. Due to programme priorities the repackaging facility is not available to do this work for several years causing a delay to the work. In an effort accelerate the programme the Metal Fuel Pilot Project (MFPP) was initiated to challenge the norms for fuel transfer and develop a new methodology for transferring the fuel. In developing a transfer scheme the team had to overcome challenges associated with unknown fuel condition, transfers outside of bulk containment, pyro-phoricity and oxidisation hazards as well as developing remote control and recovery systems for equipment not designed for this purpose. A combination of novel engineering and enhanced operational controls were developed which resulted in the successful export of the first fuel to leave the Pile Fuel Storage Pond in over 40 years. The learning from the pilot project is now being considered by the main project team to see how the new methodology can be applied to the full inventory of the pond. (author)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

ASME Design Code Rule Changes for Nuclear Graphite

The American Society of Mechanical Engineers Boiler Pressure and Vessel Code (ASME BPVC) Section III, Division 5, Article HHA-3000 outlines graphite core component and graphite core assembly design guidelines. Graphite core components are defined as ?components manufactured from graphite that are installed to form a graphite core assembly within the reactor pressure vessel of a high temperature, graphite moderated fission reactor.? (p. 413) Graphites? inherent defect distributions do not allow for deterministic material reliability. Rather, graphite has variable strength distributions which change by grade. Article HHA-3000 outlines two semi-probabilistic methods, the full and simplified assessments, which set design load limit targets for each of three component structural reliability classes. The Design Task Group was officially recognized as a specialized task group within ASME November of 2023, though we?ve been collaborating since 2022. The purpose of the Design Task Group is to correct, clarify, and make HHA-3000 function as intended. The Design Task Group will sunset once we?ve achieved our objectives. The Design Task Group was specifically told to not write new Code. While there may be more precise and more accurate methods to determine reliability targets, the current methods are conservative, relatively simple to implement, and have thus far been considered satisfactory for setting design reliability targets. Much of the ground-work to write proposal files and background documents for records to make the changes needed to achieve our objective have been completed. The Design Task Group has documented much of their work through papers, presentations, and memorandums. Three memorandums in which INL team members had substantial contributions are found in the Appendices: FEA Modeling for the Baseline Program, Evaluating the Effects on Margin of Updating the Threshold and Shape Parameters in the Full Assessment, and Interpretations of the Full and Simplified Assessments in ASME BPVC. Most of the on-going work to achieve the Design Task Group?s objective will be addressing comments on existing records and moving records through the balloting process. The Design Task Group met bi-weekly mostly through the end of FY2023. Since February 2024, the Design Task Group has mostly been completed with solving and documenting the technical issues associated with the assessments. Unless new tasks are identified, the remaining work of the Design Task Group will be political and editorial.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Solutions to time variant problems of real-time expert systems

Real-time expert systems for monitoring and control are driven by input data which changes with time. One of the subtle problems of this field is the propagation of time variant problems from rule to rule. This propagation problem is even complicated under a multiprogramming environment where the expert system may issue test commands to the system to get data and to access time consuming devices to retrieve data for concurrent reasoning. Two approaches are used to handle the flood of input data. Snapshots can be taken to freeze the system from time to time. The expert system treats the system as a stationary one and traces changes by comparing consecutive snapshots. In the other approach, when an input is available, the rules associated with it are evaluated. For both approaches, if the premise condition of a fired rule is changed to being false, the downstream rules should be deactivated. If the status change is due to disappearance of a transient problem, actions taken by the fired downstream rules which are no longer true may need to be undone. If a downstream rule is being evaluated, it should not be fired. Three mechanisms for solving this problem are discussed: tracing, backward checking, and censor setting. In the forward tracing mechanism, when the premise conditions of a fired rule become false, the premise conditions of downstream rules which have been fired or are being evaluated due to the firing of that rule are reevaluated. A tree with its root at the rule being deactivated is traversed. In the backward checking mechanism, when a rule is being fired, the expert system checks back on the premise conditions of the upstream rules that result in evaluation of the rule to see whether it should be fired. The root of the tree being traversed is the rule being fired. In the censor setting mechanism, when a rule is to be evaluated, a censor is constructed based on the premise conditions of the upstream rules and the censor is evaluated just before the rule is fired. Unlike the backward checking mechanism, this one does not search the upstream rules. This paper explores the details of implementation of the three mechanisms.

Yeh, Show-Way↗

Research and development for Onboard Navigation (ONAV) ground based expert/trainer system: ONAV entry expert system code

A complete listing is given of the expert system rules for the Entry phase of the Onboard Navigation (ONAV) Ground Based Expert Trainer System for aircraft/space shuttle navigation. These source listings appear in the same format as utilized and required by the C Language Integrated Production System (CLIPS) expert system shell which is the basis for the ONAV entry system. A schematic overview is given of how the rules are organized. These groups result from a partitioning of the rules according to the overall function which a given set of rules performs. This partitioning was established and maintained according to that established in the knowledge specification document. In addition, four other groups of rules are specified. The four groups (control flow, operator inputs, output management, and data tables) perform functions that affect all the other functional rule groups. As the name implies, control flow ensures that the rule groups are executed in the order required for proper operation; operator input rules control the introduction into the CLIPS fact base of various kinds of data required by the expert system; output management rules control the updating of the ONAV expert system user display screen during execution of the system; and data tables are static information utilized by many different rule sets gathered in one convenient place.

Bochsler, Daniel C.↗

Analysis and Prediction of VFR Vs IFR Traffic Behavior to Support Uncrewed Aircraft Flight Operations at Regional Airports

Uncrewed Aircraft flight operations at a regional airport will be affected by the uncertainty in the Visual Flight Rules traffic around. This paper analyzes Visual Flight Rules traffic behavior, compares it with Instrument Flight Rules traffic and develops traffic prediction methods to support uncrewed aircraft flight operations. The spatio-temporal distribution of traffic operating under Visual Flight Rules and Instrument Flight Rules was analyzed from one month of historical track data around Fort Worth Alliance airport as a representative regional airport. The traffic behavior was visualized as occupancy maps generated at different altitudes. The Instrument Flight Rules traffic was concentrated in fewer regions of the airspace along structured routes where the risk of interacting with one or more flights reached close to fifty percent in some areas. Visual Flight Rules traffic was spread over more regions, mostly segregated from the Instrument Flight Rules regions, and the risk of interaction was lower reaching up to twenty-five percent on average over the month in some regions. The interaction risk was predicted using predictive occupancy maps over multiple time horizons and conditioned on time and partial observation of traffic in the vicinity. The month-to-month predictability of Visual Flight Rules risk was lower than that of the Instrument Flight Rules traffic, consistently over all the conditions analyzed. However, the prediction and its accuracy were demonstrated to be sensitive to the conditions used. The predictive models generated can be used to support both strategic planning and in-flight decision-making by uncrewed aircraft during flight operations while maintaining an acceptable risk of interacting with other traffic.

VFR↗

Analysis and Prediction of VFR Vs IFR Traffic Behavior to Support Uncrewed Aircraft Flight Operations at Regional Airports

Uncrewed Aircraft flight operations at a regional airport will be affected by the uncertainty in the Visual Flight Rules traffic around. This paper analyzes Visual Flight Rules traffic behavior, compares it with Instrument Flight Rules traffic and develops traffic prediction methods to support uncrewed aircraft flight operations. The spatio-temporal distribution of traffic operating under Visual Flight Rules and Instrument Flight Rules was analyzed from one month of historical track data around Fort Worth Alliance airport as a representative regional airport. The traffic behavior was visualized as occupancy maps generated at different altitudes. The Instrument Flight Rules traffic was concentrated in fewer regions of the airspace along structured routes where the risk of interacting with one or more flights reached close to fifty percent in some areas. Visual Flight Rules traffic was spread over more regions, mostly segregated from the Instrument Flight Rules regions, and the risk of interaction was lower reaching up to twenty-five percent on average over the month in some regions. The interaction risk was predicted using predictive occupancy maps over multiple time horizons and conditioned on time and partial observation of traffic in the vicinity. The month-to-month predictability of Visual Flight Rules risk was lower than that of the Instrument Flight Rules traffic, consistently over all the conditions analyzed. However, the prediction and its accuracy were demonstrated to be sensitive to the conditions used. The predictive models generated can be used to support both strategic planning and in-flight decision-making by uncrewed aircraft during flight operations while maintaining an acceptable risk of interacting with other traffic.

VFR↗

Exploring the Impact of Compliance With Maneuvering Guidelines for Space Traffic Management

If the current estimate of proposed large constellations is realized, the near-Earth space environment will see more than 50,000 new satellites added to the catalog of resident space objects (RSOs) in the coming decade. This is an order of magnitude increase from the current population and poses new policy challenges as global operators seek to leverage the benefits these new satellite systems provide while also ensuring a sustainable approach to collision avoidance. Various guidelines have been proposed to date to support this effort, including the development of right of way rules to guide how a collision avoidance maneuver should be performed, and how the maneuver burden should be shared between the two satellites involved. However, it is very difficult to evaluate and compare proposed guidelines due to the complex nature of space traffic and the rapidly changing space environment. This study seeks to address this issue by utilizing the Virtual Environment for Space Traffic Analysis (VESTA), a high-fidelity simulation tool that has been developed at Georgia Tech over the past few years with the explicit purpose of evaluating the future of space traffic environment. Using this tool, a sensitivity study is performed that incorporates a likely set of future large constellations and provides metrics on the impact that a select set of proposed maneuvering guidelines would have on operators given realistic variations in spacecraft capabilities (e.g. maneuverability and propulsion capabilities), and other factors (owner-country, public vs. private, etc.). Specifically, this study compares three potential right of way rules: 1) a rule based on maneuverability proposed by the Space Safety Coalition, 2) a rule based on the geometry of the spacecraft rendezvous, and 3) a rule that equally distributes the maneuver burden between two operators, The results highlight general observations on the effectiveness and limitations of each of the proposed maneuvering guidelines. In addition to the choice of right of way rule, success of space traffic management will be significantly impacted by compliance – which operators, or how many operators, comply with the space traffic rules. The findings of this analysis have important implications for future methods that could be pursued to put in place right of way rules. For example, non-binding right of way rules may have variable levels of compliance that differ across actors. The impact of compliance by just one nation, or non-compliance by just one nation, help to demonstrate the impact of ensuring all major space actors coordinate on this effort. Overall, this analysis provides insight into the relative gains in safety (decrease in collision risk) that would likely result from more politically intense efforts to increase the number of countries implementing space traffic management rules.

conjunction assessment↗

System and method for embedding emotion in logic systems

A system, method, and computer readable-media for creating a stable synthetic neural system. The method includes training an intellectual choice-driven synthetic neural system (SNS), training an emotional rule-driven SNS by generating emotions from rules, incorporating the rule-driven SNS into the choice-driven SNS through an evolvable interface, and balancing the emotional SNS and the intellectual SNS to achieve stability in a nontrivial autonomous environment with a Stability Algorithm for Neural Entities (SANE). Generating emotions from rules can include coding the rules into the rule-driven SNS in a self-consistent way. Training the emotional rule-driven SNS can occur during a training stage in parallel with training the choice-driven SNS. The training stage can include a self assessment loop which measures performance characteristics of the rule-driven SNS against core genetic code. The method uses a stability threshold to measure stability of the incorporated rule-driven SNS and choice-driven SNS using SANE.

Curtis, Steven A.↗