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At least 1,009 records · Page 56

Landsat near-infrared (NIR) band and ELM-FATES sensitivity to forest disturbances and regrowth in the Central Amazon

Forest disturbance and regrowth are key processes in forest dynamics, but detailed information on these processes is difficult to obtain in remote forests such as the Amazon. We used chronosequences of Landsat satellite imagery (Landsat 5 Thematic Mapper and Landsat 7 Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus) to determine the sensitivity of surface reflectance from all spectral bands to windthrow, clear-cut, and clear-cut and burned (cut + burn) and their successional pathways of forest regrowth in the Central Amazon. We also assessed whether the forest demography model Functionally Assembled Terrestrial Ecosystem Simulator (FATES) implemented in the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) Land Model (ELM), ELM-FATES, accurately represents the changes for windthrow and clear-cut. The results show that all spectral bands from the Landsat satellites were sensitive to the disturbances but after 3 to 6 years only the near-infrared (NIR) band had significant changes associated with the successional pathways of forest regrowth for all the disturbances considered. In general, the NIR values decreased immediately after disturbance, increased to maximum values with the establishment of pioneers and early successional tree species, and then decreased slowly and almost linearly to pre-disturbance conditions with the dynamics of forest succession. Statistical methods predict that NIR values will return to pre-disturbance values in about 39, 36, and 56 years for windthrow, clear-cut, and cut + burn disturbances, respectively. The NIR band captured the observed, and different, successional pathways of forest regrowth after windthrow, clear-cut, and cut + burn. Consistent with inferences from the NIR observations, ELM-FATES predicted higher peaks of biomass and stem density after clear-cuts than after windthrows. ELM-FATES also predicted recovery of forest structure and canopy coverage back to pre-disturbance conditions in 38 years after windthrows and 41 years after clear-cut. The similarity of ELM-FATES predictions of regrowth patterns after windthrow and clear-cut to those of the NIR results suggests the NIR band can be used to benchmark forest regrowth in ecosystem models. Our results show the potential of Landsat imagery data for mapping forest regrowth from different types of disturbances, benchmarking, and the improvement of forest regrowth models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Data-Driven Global Sensitivity Analysis of Three-Phase Distribution System with PVs

Global sensitivity analysis (GSA) of distribution system with respect to stochastic PV variations plays an important role in designing optimal voltage control schemes. This paper proposes a Kriging, i.e., Gaussian process modeling enabled data-driven GSA method. The key idea is to develop a surrogate model that captures the hidden global relationship between voltage and real and reactive power injections from the historical data. With the surrogate model, the Sobol index can be conveniently calculated to assess the global sensitivity of voltage to various power injection variations. Comparison results with other model-based GSA methods on the IEEE 37-bus feeder, such as the polynomial chaos expansion and the Monte Carlo approaches demonstrate that the proposed method can achieve accurate GSA outcomes while maintaining high computational efficiency.

distribution system analysis↗

A Method Based on Radiative Cooling for Detecting Structural Changes in Undercooled Metallic Liquids

We introduce a structure-sensitive parameter for undercooled melts which can be measured in containerless processing experiments. We have established that the ratio, R(T), of hemispherical total emissivity epsilon(sub T)(T) to constant-pressure specific heat c(sub p)(T) can serve as an indicator which is sensitive to any changes in short range atomic order in undercooled metallic melts. R(T) (triple bonds) epsilon(sub T)(T)/c(sub p)(T) values for nickel, zirconium, and silicon have been obtained using the high temperature electrostatic levitator while the levitated melts were undergoing purely radiative cooling into the deeply undercooled region. R(T) plots for undercooled liquid nickel and zirconium indicate no significant change in short-range structure from their melting temperatures to 15% undercooling. In contrast, liquid silicon shows marked short-range structural changes beginning above its melting temperature and extending throughout the undercooled region. The short-range structure of liquid silicon is related to the highly-directional covalent bonding which characterizes its solid form. The nickel and zirconium data show that epsilon(sub T) varies linearly with T, in support of metal emissivity theories.

Rulison, Aaron J.↗

Efficient Distance-based Global Sensitivity Analysis for Terrestrial Ecosystem Modeling

Sensitivity analysis in terrestrial ecosystem modeling is important for understanding controlling processes, guiding model development, and targeting new observations to reduce parameter and prediction uncertainty. Complex and computationally expensive terrestrial ecosystem models (TEM) limit the number of ensemble simulations, requiring sophisticated and efficient methods to analyze sensitivities of multiple model responses to different types of parameter uncertainties. In this study, we propose a distance-based global sensitivity analysis (DGSA) method. DGSA first classifies model response samples into a small set of discrete classes and then calculates the distance between parameter frequency distributions in different classes to measure the parameter sensitivity. The principle is that, if the parameter distribution is the same in each class, then the model response is insensitive to the parameter, while a large difference in the distributions indicates the parameter is influential to the response. Built on this idea, DGSA can be applied to analyze sensitivity of a single and a group of responses to different kinds of parameter uncertainties including continuous, discrete and even stochastic. Besides the main-effect sensitivity from a single parameter, DGSA can also quantify the sensitivity from parameter interactions. Additionally, DGSA is computationally efficient which can use a small number of model evaluations to obtain an accurate and statistically significant result. We applied DGSA to two TEMs, one having eight parameters and three kinds of model responses, and the other having 47 parameters and a long-period response. We demonstrated that DGSA can be used for sensitivity problems with multiple responses and high-dimensional parameters efficiently.

Lu, Dan↗

A sensitivity/intrusion comparison of mental workload estimation techniques using a flight task emphasizing perceptual piloting activities

In a literature review it was found that little research effort has been directly applied to the problem of specifying a viable workload estimation technique for a given pilot/aircrew problem. Furthermore, the relative sensitivity and intrusion of most techniques has not been studied. The present investigation is concerned with a comparative evaluation of eight workload estimation techniques under identical experimental conditions in a flight simulator. The objective of this comparison was to determine the relative sensitivity and intrusion of each estimation technique in applications to a piloting situation which emphasizes the use of perceptual processes. No differential intrusion could be observed, but six of the eight techniques did show sensitivity to changes in perceptual load. All significant techniques displayed monotonic increases in measured values across the three loading levels considered.

Casali, J. G.↗

Complex Decision-Making Applications for the NASA Space Launch System

The Space Shuttle program is ending and elements of the Constellation Program are either being cancelled or transitioned to new NASA exploration endeavors. NASA is working diligently to select an optimum configuration for the Space Launch System (SLS), a heavy lift vehicle that will provide the foundation for future beyond LEO large ]scale missions for the next several decades. Thus, multiple questions must be addressed: Which heavy lift vehicle will best allow the agency to achieve mission objectives in the most affordable and reliable manner? Which heavy lift vehicle will allow for a sufficiently flexible exploration campaign of the solar system? Which heavy lift vehicle configuration will allow for minimizing risk in design, test, build and operations? Which heavy lift vehicle configuration will be sustainable in changing political environments? Seeking to address these questions drove the development of an SLS decisionmaking framework. From Fall 2010 until Spring 2011, this framework was formulated, tested, fully documented, and applied to multiple SLS vehicle concepts at NASA from previous exploration architecture studies. This was a multistep process that involved performing FOM-based assessments, creating Pass/Fail gates based on draft threshold requirements, performing a margin-based assessment with supporting statistical analyses, and performing sensitivity analysis on each. This paper discusses the various methods of this process that allowed for competing concepts to be compared across a variety of launch vehicle metrics. The end result was the identification of SLS launch vehicle candidates that could successfully meet the threshold requirements in support of the SLS Mission Concept Review (MCR) milestone.

Lyles, Garry↗

Effect of Additives: Gamma-Ray Sensors Based on Ionizing Organic Nanocomposites

We have developed ionizing organic-based composites which have demonstrated great promise for radiation sensing. Nickel oxide has been proven as an active material for detecting high energy radiation. The oxidation state of unusual oxides such as nickel oxide in nanocomposites of ionizing organics changes much faster than thin film or bulk, and hence increases the sensitivity for radiation sensing. The resistivity of the oxide composite increases following sequential irradiation processes because of the decrease in holes' concentration. In this paper, we will present the effect of additional oxidizing agent on the morphology, processing and sensing of gamma-rays by oxides - urea based nanocomposites. It was observed that addition of MnO2 decreases the sensitivity. However, it recovers to original properties after irradiation much faster than undoped composites.

Vishall Dayal↗

Biological Valorization of Natural Gas for the Production of Lactic Acid: Techno-Economic Analysis and Life Cycle Assessment

Due to the availability of natural gas, shale gas, and flared gas, there is increased interest in converting methane in these gases into commodity chemicals via cost-effective and sustainable processes. Recently, we have demonstrated an efficient process concept converting methane to lactic acid (LA) by methanotrophic bacteria with high carbon flux, pivoting potentials for commercialization. Herein, we present a first-of-kind conceptual design and a techno-economic analysis (TEA) of a biorefinery process with calculated minimum selling prices. This study includes both sensitivity analysis and scenario analysis for key cost drivers and for projecting path forwards in research and development. The analyses reveal that the conversion efficiency, LA product titer, LA productivity, and gas flow rate have the most significant impacts on cost. The MSP varies from $5.83-$2.17/kg LA depending on these key process attributes. Further, a life cycle assessment of this process concept is evaluated and compared to understand the sustainable aspects. In this TEA study, the bio-upgrading process from natural gas to LA presents a potentially promising approach in terms of the feedstock versatility, economic viability, and environmental impact.

BIOMASS FUELS,NATURAL GAS↗

Regional scale hydrology with a new land surface processes model

Through the CaPE Hydrometeorology Project, we have developed an understanding of some of the unique data quality issues involved in assimilating data of disparate types for regional-scale hydrologic modeling within a GIS framework. Among others, the issues addressed here include the development of adequate validation of the surface water budget, implementation of the STATSGO soil data set, and implementation of a remote sensing-derived landcover data set to account for surface heterogeneity. A model of land surface processes has been developed and used in studies of the sensitivity of surface fluxes and runoff to soil and landcover characterization. Results of these experiments have raised many questions about how to treat the scale-dependence of land surface-atmosphere interactions on spatial and temporal variability. In light of these questions, additional modifications are being considered for the Marshall Land Surface Processes Model. It is anticipated that these techniques can be tested and applied in conjunction with GCIP activities over regional scales.

Laymon, Charles↗

Data-Driven Discovery of Linear Molecular Probes with Optimal Selective Affinity for PFAS in Water

Approaches to tackle the wide and growing variety of highly persistent per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) are of pressing global need because of their detrimental human health effects, such as cancer, birth defects, and hormone imbalance. Sensitive, selective, and easy-to-use real-time sensors to monitor and detect PFAS and sorbents to extract them are critical to meeting government-mandated environmental concentrations. In this work, we combine all-atom molecular dynamics simulations, enhanced sampling, deep representational learning, and Bayesian optimization to perform high-throughput virtual screening for highly sensitive and selective molecular probes. Our molecular design space consists of 3850 linear hydrocarbon chains with varying degrees of halogenation with and without amine- and phosphine-based headgroups. By employing a data-driven search process, we efficiently explore the molecular design space to optimize the sensitivity to perfluorooctanesulfonic acid (PFOS) as a prototypical PFAS analyte and selectivity relative to a sodium dodecyl sulfate (SDS) interferent. We calculate 504 Gibbs free energies of probe-analyte and probe-interferent interactions and identify probes with PFOS association free energies of up to (-ΔG PFOS ) = 9.8 ± 0.2 kJ/mol and selectivities relative to SDS of (-ΔΔG PFOS–SDS ) = 3.1 ± 1.5 kJ/mol. A C 11 Br 23 P(CH 3 ) 2 probe containing 11 backbone brominated carbons and a tertiary phosphine headgroup possesses the most sensitive binding constant to PFOS within the defined search space of K b PFOS = 177.4 ± 12.7, and a semibrominated probe C 5 H 11 C 7 Br 14 N(CH 3 ) 2 containing 12 backbone carbons and a tertiary amine headgroup possesses the highest selectivity relative to SDS of K b PFOS /K b SDS = 4.6 ± 1.7. A retrospective analysis of our data to extract interpretable design rules reveals that the sensitivity of linear hydrogenated probes increases by approximately 1 kJ/mol per C–C bond. The addition or removal of halogen atoms and amine or phosphine headgroups produces nonmonotonic changes in both sensitivity and selectivity with changes to the sensitivity of up to 2.5 kJ/mol. Finally, this work places empirical limitations on the performance of a wide range of linear probes for PFOS detection and offers a generic strategy for high-throughput computational screening to promote selective and sensitive binding.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Inhomogeneous Forcing and Transient Climate Sensitivity

Understanding climate sensitivity is critical to projecting climate change in response to a given forcing scenario. Recent analyses have suggested that transient climate sensitivity is at the low end of the present model range taking into account the reduced warming rates during the past 10-15 years during which forcing has increased markedly. In contrast, comparisons of modelled feedback processes with observations indicate that the most realistic models have higher sensitivities. Here I analyse results from recent climate modelling intercomparison projects to demonstrate that transient climate sensitivity to historical aerosols and ozone is substantially greater than the transient climate sensitivity to CO2. This enhanced sensitivity is primarily caused by more of the forcing being located at Northern Hemisphere middle to high latitudes where it triggers more rapid land responses and stronger feedbacks. I find that accounting for this enhancement largely reconciles the two sets of results, and I conclude that the lowest end of the range of transient climate response to CO2 in present models and assessments (less than 1.3 C) is very unlikely.

sensitivity↗

Assessing the sensitivity of aerosol mass budget and effective radiative forcing to horizontal grid spacing in E3SMv1 using a regional refinement approach

Abstract. Atmospheric aerosols have important impacts on air quality and the Earth–atmospheric energy balance. However, as computing power is limited, Earth system models generally use coarse spatial grids and parameterize finer-scale atmospheric processes. These parameterizations and the simulation of atmospheric aerosols are often sensitive to model horizontal resolutions. Understanding the sensitivities is necessary for the development of Earth system models at higher resolutions with the deployment of more powerful supercomputers. Using the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) version 1, this study investigates the impact of horizontal grid spacing on the simulated aerosol mass budget, aerosol–cloud interactions, and the effective radiative forcing of anthropogenic aerosols (ERFaer) over the contiguous United States. We examine the resolution sensitivity by comparing the nudged simulation results for 2016 from the low-resolution model (LR) and the regional refinement model (RRM). As expected, the simulated emissions of natural dust, sea salt, and marine organic matter are substantially higher in the RRM than in the LR. In addition, RRM simulates stronger aqueous-phase production of sulfate through the enhanced oxidation of sulfur dioxide by hydrogen peroxide due to increased cloud liquid water content. In contrast, the gas-phase chemical production of sulfate is slightly suppressed. The RRM resolves more large-scale precipitation and produces less convective precipitation than the LR, leading to increased (decreased) aerosol wet scavenging by large-scale (convective) precipitation. Regarding aerosol effects on clouds, RRM produces larger temporal variabilities in the large-scale liquid cloud fractions than LR, resulting in increased microphysical cloud processing of aerosols (more interstitial aerosols are converted to cloud-borne aerosols via aerosol activation) in RRM. Water vapor condensation is also enhanced in RRM compared to LR. Consequently, the RRM simulation produces more cloud droplets, a larger cloud droplet radius, a higher liquid water path, and a larger cloud optical depth than the LR simulation. A comparison of the present-day and pre-industrial simulations indicates that, for this contiguous United States domain, the higher-resolution increases ERFaer at the top of the model by about 12 %, which is mainly attributed to the strengthened indirect effect associated with aerosol–cloud interactions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Oxide derived Cu nanofibril assembly for enhanced nonenzymatic glucose sensing

In this report, we have prepared copper nanofibril assembly via thermal oxidation followed by electrochemical reduction processes, exhibiting superior glucose detection ability. The morphological analysis evidenced the formation of rough islands or nanofibril structure on the Cu surface depending on initial thermal oxidation temperature. The glucose detection performance was investigated by performing cyclic voltammetry and chronoamperometry with varying glucose concentration. A high sensitivity (4131.57 μA mM – 1 cm – 2 ), low detection limit (1.41 μM), wider linear range (0–3.9 mM) and long–term stability (30 days) have been recorded for electrode thermally oxidized at 400 °C followed by electrochemical reduction process (rCu_400). The sensitivity is almost three times higher in comparison to the planner Cu surface. This significantly enhanced glucose sensing ability rCu_400 has been attributed to the nanofibril morphology, origination of Cu (111) facet and formation of a stable oxide layer evidenced by scanning electron microscopy, X-ray diffraction and energy dispersive spectroscopy analysis. Despite higher sensitivity, rCu_400 electrode does not show any response to the chloride ion, dopamine, ascorbic acid and uric acid. Finally, these results indicate that the Cu nanofibril structure prepared via simple oxidation/reduction process can be an excellent candidate to be used as an electrode for glucose sensing application.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Integrated structural-aerodynamic design optimization

This paper focuses on the processes of simultaneous aerodynamic and structural wing design as a prototype for design integration, with emphasis on the major difficulty associated with multidisciplinary design optimization processes, their enormous computational costs. Methods are presented for reducing this computational burden through the development of efficient methods for cross-sensitivity calculations and the implementation of approximate optimization procedures. Utilizing a modular sensitivity analysis approach, it is shown that the sensitivities can be computed without the expensive calculation of the derivatives of the aerodynamic influence coefficient matrix, and the derivatives of the structural flexibility matrix. The same process is used to efficiently evaluate the sensitivities of the wing divergence constraint, which should be particularly useful, not only in problems of complete integrated aircraft design, but also in aeroelastic tailoring applications.

Haftka, R. T.↗

Five-Year Wilkinson Microwave Anisotropy Probe Observations: Data Processing, Sky Maps, and Basic Results

We present new full-sky temperature and polarization maps in five frequency bands from 23 to 94 GHz, based on data from the first five years of the Wilkinson Microwave Anisotropy Probe (WMAP) sky survey. The new maps are consistent with previous maps and are more sensitive. The five-year maps incorporate several improvements in data processing made possible by the additional years of data and by a more complete analysis of the instrument calibration and in-flight beam response. We present several new tests for systematic errors in the polarization data and conclude that W-band polarization data is not yet suitable for cosmological studies, but we suggest directions for further study. We do find that Ka-band data is suitable for use; in conjunction with the additional years of data, the addition of Ka band to the previously used Q- and V-band channels significantly reduces the uncertainty in the optical depth parameter, tau. Further scientific results from the five-year data analysis are presented in six companion papers and are summarized in Section 7 of this paper. With the five-year WMAP data, we detect no convincing deviations from the minimal six-parameter ACDM model: a flat universe dominated by a cosmological constant, with adiabatic and nearly scale-invariant Gaussian fluctuations. Using WMAP data combined with measurements of Type Ia supernovae and Baryon Acoustic Oscillations in the galaxy distribution, we find (68% CL uncertainties): OMEGA(sub b)h(sup 2) = 0.02267(sup +0.00058)(sub -0.00059), OMEGA(sub c)h(sup 2) = 0.1131 plus or minus 0.0034, OMEGA(sub logical and) = 0.726 plus or minus 0.015, ns = .960 plus or minus 0.013, tau = 0.84 plus or minus 0.016, and DELTA(sup 2)(sub R) = (22.445 plus or minus 0.096) x 10(exp -9) at k = 0.002 Mpc(exp -1). From these we derive sigma(sub 8) = 0.812 plus or minus 0.026, H(sub 0) = 70.5 plus or minus 1.3 kilometers per second Mpc(exp -1), OMEGA(sub b) = 0.0456 plus or minus 0.0015, OMEGA(sub c) = .228 plus or minus 0.013, OMEGA(sub m)h(sup 2) = 0.1358(sup +0.0037)(sub -0.0036), z reion = 10.9 plus or minus 1.4, and t(sub 0) = 13.72 plus or minus 0.12 Gyr. The new limit on the tensor-to-scalar ration is r less than 0.22 (95% CL), while the evidence for a running spectral index is insignificant, dn(sub s)/d ln k = -0.028 plus or minus 0.020 (68% CL). We obtain tight, simultaneous limits on the (constant) dark energy equation of state and the spatial curvature of the universe: -0.14 less than 1 + w less than 0.12 (95% CL) and -0.0179 less than OMEGA(sub k) less than 0.0081 (95% CL). The number of relativistic degrees of freedom, expressed in units of the effective number of neutrino species, is found to be N(sub eff) = 4.4 plus or minus 1.5 (69% CL), consistent with the standard value of 3.04. Models with N(sub eff) = 0 are disfavored at greater than 99% confidence. Finally, new limits on physically motivated primordial non-Gaussianity parameters are -9 less than f(sup local)(sub NL) less than 111 (95% CL) and -151 less than f(sup equal)(sub NL) less than 253 (95% CL) for the local and equilateral models, respectively.

Hinshaw, G.↗

Effects of stratification and charge cooling on combustion in a gasoline direct-injection compression ignition (GDCI) engine

With the development of low temperature engine combustion strategies, performance of gasoline-type fuels under compression ignition conditions has attracted extensive research interest. Meanwhile, for the sake of co-optimization of engines and fuels for future ground transportation, identification and evaluation of general fuel properties should be a core research priority instead of endless testing of specific fuels. In this study, the roles of fuel octane sensitivity in characterizing the ignition performance of gasoline surrogates have been systematically investigated under typical gasoline direct ignition compression ignition (GDCI) engine conditions using 3D combustion CFD simulation, especially considering the subsequent in-cylinder charge stratification and charge cooling. Two different operating conditions, high boost pressure low boost temperature (beyond-RON) case and low boost pressure high boost temperature (beyond-MON) case, were considered. By comparing with our previous zero-dimensional chemical kinetic study of gasoline surrogates in advanced compression ignition (ACI) engines, the effects of stratification and charge cooling on the combustion processes are investigated. It is found that different fuel octane sensitivities lead to slight difference in equivalence ratio stratification and charge cooling due to differences in volatility. However, fuel reactivity is still the more dominant factor than the stratification and charge cooling effects in determining combustion phasing. The present results help to justify the P-T domain framework for engine autoignition analysis of overlapping pressure-temperature trajectory with ignition delay iso-contour. Here, the results also provide useful guidance to the understanding of GCI combustion process, and to the evaluation of controlling fuel properties and the selection of alternative fuels in GCI engines.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

Automatically adaptive stabilized finite elements and continuation analysis for compaction banding in geomaterials

Under compressive creep, viscoplastic solids experiencing internal mass transfer processes can accommodate singular cnoidal wave solutions as material instabilities at the stationary wave limit. These instabilities appear when the loading rate is significantly faster than the material's capacity to diffusive internal perturbations, leading to localized failure features (e.g., cracks and compaction bands). These cnoidal waves, generally found in fluids, have strong nonlinearities that produce periodic patterns. Due to the singular nature of the solutions, the applicability of the theory is currently limited. Additionally, practical simulation tools require proper regularization to overcome the challenges that singularity induces. We focus on the numerical treatment of the governing equation using a nonlinear approach building on a recent adaptive stabilized finite element method. This automatic refinement method provides an error estimate that drives mesh adaptivity, a crucial feature for the problem at hand. We compare the performance of this adaptive strategy against analytical and standard finite element solutions. We then investigate the sensitivity of the diffusivity ratio, the parameter controlling the process, and identify multiple possible solutions with several stress peaks. We also show the evolution of the spacing between peaks for all solutions as a function of that parameter.

42 ENGINEERING↗

SAGE II Measurements of Stratospheric Aerosol Properties at Non-Volcanic Levels

Since 2000, stratospheric aerosol levels have been relatively stable and at the lowest levels observed in the historical record. Given the challenges of making satellite measurements of aerosol properties at these levels, we have performed a study of the sensitivity of the product to the major components of the processing algorithm used in the production of SAGE II aerosol extinction measurements and the retrieval process that produces the operational surface area density (SAD) product. We find that the aerosol extinction measurements, particularly at 1020 nm, remain robust and reliable at the observed aerosol levels. On the other hand, during background periods, the SAD operational product has an uncertainty of at least a factor of 2 during due to the lack of sensitivity to particles with radii less than 100 nm.

Thomason, Larry W.↗